Sunday, March 22, 2015

FCPO - Is This The End Or Beginning ? - 3/23/2015

Displaying Oriental FCPO D.png 

The recent fractal low of 2216 was finally broken on last Monday and price looked like it was going to test the next fractal support of 2106. But then price seems to be getting stuck again in another range. The Stochastic is already inside the oversold area. I continue to pay more attention this indicator as the ADX is still lowly. The MACD stays negative and falling and it is now below the zero signal line. I use the zero line as the boundary line to demarcate the bullish/bearish cycle. So unless the MACD quickly recover back above the zero signal line, this market may see more selling to come next.
The DMI stays negative but the D- has gone back below the 30's which mean the sellers may have a change of mind. The ADX has risen a bit last week but it is still below the 20's. If price can recover above 2220 which is above the bottom band by the coming week, we may still have a chance to see the buyers coming back.

Displaying Oriental FCPO D.png 

The weekly chart has more bearish biased as price has now closed below the bottom band.  The Stochastic has also turned negative and falling. Both these 2 are flashing a new sell signal. Its 50's signal line should warrant more attention as it usually will bring more selling. The MACD may still manage to stay positive but it has turned downward and dangerously about to go negative.The DMI continues to wiggle and the ADX stays flat and low, so I would still call this market as listless. I have drawn 2 horizontal lines on the price chart to mark out the recent big range price has been wandering. The 2106 support is vital in order for bullish scenario story to continue, otherwise it is time to reassess the whole picture.
I continue to maintain my opinion that many of the international commodities and currencies are due to a major reversal, especially the crude oil. And I further believe that FCPO should mimic the behavior of the crude oil. So at this stage, I still harbor the view that FCPO may still post a reversal.

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