Monday, August 31, 2009

Singapore man lost his xxxxx ?

Today Singapore LKY's daughter was reported in the papers that she wishes the current recession would last a little longer because she felt that Singaporeans could be toughened up.

I think these short videos show exactly what she meant.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

CPO - Yes, this one is dead again - 31/8/09

As warned last week, the previous Friday's candlestick was problematic for our previous shorts. The market took out our shorts on opening. This is one of those situations when our trade does not work out as it should be, which occur sometime and should be expected. As long as you follow the trading rules , then you should be alright . Losses, if any, is usually bearable.

Now that the ADX has fallen below the 20's signal line and it is at 16 last. Prices are now also stuck within the Bollinger upper and lower bands. While the Stochastic is positive and rising but the MACD remains negative. All are confirming that there is no trend in this market.

The weekly chart is also confirming what we are reading in the daily chart. The weekly ADX has also fallen to 17's while the Stochastic is positive and the MACD is not. All classic signs that the market is dead.

So with both the daily and the weekly charts confirming a lack of trend, I would suggest you should take a rest and keep away from this market for a while. But I want to bring your attention to an interesting development which is the daily Bollinger Band has already started to squeeze. If you have been trading this market, you would know this little devil is up to something big soon. So, my advice to you to keep away for this time is certainly not asking you to go to sleep. You should monitor it more intensely.

FKLI - Caught in a range - 31/8/09

Our stop of 1165 was taken out and a new long signal was also triggered at the same time on last Monday. Though the Stochastic has turned positive and rising but the MACD still has not follow suit. So we have here another classic show of 2 indicators that do not agree with each other, which is an usual sign that the market has not resolved which direction it wants to take. With the ADX continues to fall and
prices remained stuck within the Bollinger Band, I would read all these as another sideway market. I have drawn 2 short horizontal lines to mark out its possible range. Any breakup or down may be taken as the beginning of a new directional move.

Since the D+ remains above D- which is more bullish biased, so I would look out for a breakout above 1189 which is its recent fractal high as a further reason to add on to the long positions. And I would keep 1160 as stop if the market turns around and fall. Any closing below 1147 should be taken as a new sell signal.

The weekly chart again has not shown any sell signal yet. Prices still remain above the upper Bollinger Band while the MACD is still positive. The Stochastic maintains above its 80's signal line but may be flashing a minor bearish divergence formation (lower peaks when prices reach new peaks). You should pay attention to this indicator if it crosses down its 80's signal line or 1149 support as the initial signals of any weaknesses.

The market may continue to hold around here before any major sell off happens. I am saying this because there are so many of those penny stocks/near death stocks that are ripping and roaring for powerful run. So I do not think the people in power may not want to dampen the mood at this point. Having say this, you MUST still insist on your stops.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Ellie Greenwich - A Brill Building's legand dies

Ellie Greenwich, a songwriter who along with producer Phil Spector and co-writer Jeff Barry crafted some of the biggest and greatest singles of the 1960s, passed away at the age of 68. The AP reports that Greenwich died of a heart attack in New York’s Roosevelt Hospital, where she was battling pneumonia. Among the most famous songs that list Greenwich as a songwriter are the Ronettes’ “Be My Baby” and “Baby, I Love You,” the Shangri-La’s “Leader of the Pack,” the Dixie Cups’ “Chapel of Love,” Tina & Ike Turner’s “River Deep, Mountain High” and the Crystals’ “Then He Kissed Me” and “Da Doo Ron Ron.” Each of those landmark tracks were listed among Rolling Stone’s 500 Greatest Songs of All Time.

Discovered by famed songwriters Leiber and Stoller, Greenwich’s other major hits include Manfred Mann’s “Doo Wah Diddy Diddy,” Darlene Love’s “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)” and Tommy James’ and the Shondells’ “Hanky Panky.” Greenwich and Barry also helped nurture the career of a fledgling singer-songwriter named Neil Diamond, and Greenwich and Barry produced and contributed background vocals to Diamond hits like “Kentucky Woman,” “Girl, You’ll Be a Woman Soon,” “Cherry, Cherry,” “Red, Red Wine” and “I’m a Believer.”

Greenwich, along with Barry, was inducted into the Songwriters’ Hall of Fame in 1991. A Broadway show dedicated to songs co-written by Greenwich and based on her life called Leader of the Pack debuted on Broadway, where it was nominated for a Best Musical Tony in 1985. Greenwich also recorded her own solo album, Ellie Greenwich Composes, Produces and Sings, in 1968, and often sang backup for artists like Frank Sinatra, Bobby Darin and Dusty Springfield. The family asks that donations be made to the VH1 Save the Music Foundation.

KL Stocks - CBStech & GLYSYS

KL Stocks - Vitrox, Ulicorp, Teksng,Kheesan, Daiman & Winsun

Monday, August 24, 2009

KL Stocks - Pohuat

Saturday, August 22, 2009

CPO - Going no way again ? - 24/8/0

This market offered us another real time lesson as why a stop is always compulsory. I was forming an opinion that this market is getting more and more bullish as all the indicators are pointing up. Then on last Monday it whack down on our face, gapped down and took out my stop of 2395. Since a pre-determined stop is in place, this kind of abrupt move which is against your position would not leave you in paralysis or tremble in fears.

With prices crossed down the upper Bollinger Band and the Stochastic crossing down its 80 signal line, you would had initialed a new short positions. The MACD has also turned negative and the D- is now above the D+, all indicating a bearish biased market.
But since the falling ADX is fast approaching its 20 level, I think this market could range bound for a while before the next major course of direction is to emerge. Last Friday's candlestick was a long lower shadow which is usually a reversal candlestick, especially it managed to closed back up above the middle Bollinger Band which is the 20 moving average. Of course this depends on the next candlestick. Therefore I would suggest you should close your shorts if it goes 5 ticks above Friday's high and then see what it does next.

The weekly chart's ADX has resumed its fall again and since it is below its 20 level. It is confirming a trendless market. And this is also being confirmed by a positive Stochastic and a negative MACD. Since both indicators contradict each other, this is another classic sign that the market is caught in a range. Watch both the upper and lower Bollinger Band's breakouts for the next possible direction.

Since both the daily and the weekly charts since to telling us that the market is in a sideway move, so I would stay aside and watch out for new evidence before deciding what to do next.

FKLI - Bears not completely in control yet - 24/8/09

The market hit our stop of 1170 on last Monday and triggered a new sell signal. Both the MACD and the Stochastic have turned negative and continue to fall. Though the D+ is still holding above the D- which is the last remnant of the bull cycle but the falling ADX is confirming the prior bull trend has finished.

But as I had pointed out that since the MACD is still relatively "far" from its zero signal line, I am not too convinced yet as the bear is strong yet. This is especially when prices have gone below the lower Bollinger Band but has now closed back above it. Even though it is still more bearish biased now, I would place a stop at 1165 to protect profit. Buy again if it closes above 1173 or sell again if it closes below 1150.

Again weekly chart is still offering no bearish signs yet as the MACD remains positive and prices stay above the upper Bollinger Band. The ADX has just turned flat indicating a 'rest' in the bull trend. But there is something tacit formation occurring at the Stochastic which has just formed a minor bearish divergence (lower peaks while prices make higher highs) So I would begin to take some extra caution as from now onwards.

Russia loves tax evaders

Mother Russia has never been afraid to do things her own way. Most recently, the Finance Ministry decided that governments who have been spending copious amounts of time and effort trying to curtail tax evasion have it dead wrong and are taking a different approach. To encourage economic growth by allowing people to spend their money instead of handing it over to the government, the Finance Ministry has backed a multifaceted plan from the Duma to withhold criminal charges for first time tax evaders and raise the evasion amounts that would qualify for criminal charges for repeat! offenders.

For individuals, the criminal charges for major tax evasion would rise to 500,000 rubles unpaid (if the percentage of unpaid taxes is more than 10 percent of the overall sum) or up to 1.5 million rubles ($47,000). Massive tax evasion would be up to 2.5 million rubles (when 20 percent is unpaid) or 7.5 million rubles ($234,000).
At least one government is getting serious about reducing the tax burden on its people.

Friday, August 21, 2009

US Stocks - Cannon Inc & Motorola

KL Stock - CCK

Thursday, August 20, 2009

US Stock - Merck & Co

It is the world's 8th biggest drug company which is a blue chip stock that is found in many funds' portfolio. I like it because the technicals are ripe for a major bull run.

KL Stock - Ebworx

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

KL Stocks - Gefung

Sunday, August 16, 2009

The Ringgit - to shock and awe ?

In today newspaper, there is a piece of interesting news about how the FMI "thinks" the Malaysian Ringgit is undervalued.

This is interesting because I have been watching closely the USD/Ringgit charts for a while. In the daily chart, it looks like a massive Head & Shoulder has already formed. A Head & Shoulder pattern is usually extremely bearish where the market concerned may see some massive move downwards once the 'neckline' is broken. A brief clarification here:- since it is a USD/Ringgit chart , so the USD is of the bigger value here. When we see the Ringgit going "down", it would mean a lesser amount of Ringgit to exchange for a unit of USD. So we call it appreciation rather than depreciation.

At this very moment, the Rinngit has not confirmed its down move yet as both the Stochastic and the MACD remain positive and still are hooking up. This market may be range bounding for a while before the next big move. The falling and lowly ADX is confirming me on this.

What is more amazing is that the Ringgit weekly chart is also displaying a Head & Shoulder pattern which is complimenting what is going on in the daily chart. And this one is accompanied by a bearish divergence with the MACD which you know, is also extremely bearish. But unlike the daily chart, the weekly chart's Stochastic and the MACD have already turned negative and falling. Both are now below their respective signal line of zero and 50's. But again, the weekly chart ADX is also like its daily's which is lowly and still falling. Thus there is also sign of any trend in this market. You should watch carefully once the Ringgit go below the lower Bollinger Band and close below its previous low. That may really signal the beginning of the Ringgit's rises as a phoenix after the 1998 massive depreciation.

If this appreciation could play out as my reading, then we may see it goes to 3.43/3.36/3.16 .

Of course I as a student of technical analysis cannot offer any 'explanation' to this possible major move. Of course there will be something big which will happen down the line to cause this to happen. But as I am also monitoring the other major FX pairs, I can safely tell you it would NOT due to a sudden depreciation of the USD as their charts are hinting more for a possible major appreciation of the USD . Yes, I know, what I am saying here is simply considered outrageous as the fundamentals do not support this. But then may I ask:- what fundamentals supported the USD last rally ? So I would leave it to all the "experts' to explain to you why the Ringgit rallies AFTER it happens. Thank you very much.

But then on the other hand, if Ringgit stays above 3.60 for awhile, then maybe you should forget you ever read this little piece of rubbish here.

But if you are hard up for one of those
仙家 story for the Ringgit's possible appreciation. Please allow me to share one with you. A decade ago, I consulted a numerology sifu for my reading. Somehow the sifu also got hold the birth data of a certain leader-to-be. The sifu told me that this VVIP will become our No:1, replacing the one that care more about his family ( a 6 person) . According to the sifu, this VVIP will bring kind of prosperity that our nation has never seen before. Yes, the sifu also mentioned that this VVIP will open up and get close to the kwai lo which may bring in much wealth to this nation.(remember that all these were told to me a decade ago) So, is this a good enough "explanation" to as why the Ringgit strengthen ?

CPO - Getting more bullish biased -17/8/09

The market never trigger our stop but instead went higher. The now rising ADX confirming its strength. It hit 2520 which is one of upside target, it would interesting to see whether the next target would be met at 2,705.

The daily chart MACD is still positive and rising and above its zero signal line.The Stochastic is now above he 80 signal line which usually interpreted by manys as "overbought". But since the ADX is rising now and last reached 26 which is telling us the trend is strong, so I would rather watch the MACD or the upper Bollinger Band as my stops at 2395.

The weekly chart last week DMI crossover buy signal was confirmed since a new high was registered. Prices have also closed above the middle Bollinger Band which is effectively a 20 SMA while the positive Stochastic continues to rise. All of which are adding to overall bullishness of this market. Even the ADX has turned flat instead continue to fall may be signaling the final change of the trend.

Secretly I have been wondering whether this market will go all the way up to 2,950 ?

FLLI - Correction or a sideway market ahead? 17/8/09

The MACD has turned negative and continue to fall. This has formed another bearish divergence since price had gone higher but the MACD's peak has not. So from here onwards, you should be more cautious as not to be taken in by the now increasing popular bullish commentaries that the global economy is out of the wood. You should keep a tight watch on the Stochastic which may cross down its 80 signal line which would flash an initial sell signal. But at this stage of time , I would not be too bearish yet as the MACD is still 'far' from its zero line and the D+ is still above the D- , so we cannot say the bull is finished yet. But since the ADX is now above both the D+ and D- and has turned flat, that alone should tell you that the prior bull is taking a rest for the time being.

You should keep your stops at 1170. And you may try out some shorts from there, but remember to keep your stops tight for the new shorts at 1192.

Just like the previous week's reading, the weekly chart is still maintaining its bullishness with prices stay above the upper Bollinger Band. Both the MACD and the Stochastic are still positive and rising. What is most important of all is the ADX which is still rising which is telling us the current bull trend is still valid.

So with the daily and weekly charts contradicting each other, we may be caught in another trendless situation for a while before a new course of direction emerges again. So with that, if you are committing new shorts, you should keep the trade small. Please also remember the next upside target of 1,250 is not too far from here, I would not be too surprised if they make another push toward that level.

Friday, August 14, 2009

KL Stocks - Bahvest, BIG, Hunzpty, Kencana, Sdrege, SPsetia, TSR cap, UMland, Willow & Xianlen

Hedge Funds $ into Porn

Twelve hedge funds got an eye-catching lesson in semantics when their $4.2 million investment designated for an "integrated global community of trading partners" allegedly wound up being poured into porn and the construction of a swingers ranch. Milton (Todd) Ault 3rd, a Dean Witter and Prudential alumnus, apparently sought to invest some of the hedgie money in follow up projects to his firm's, Zealous Inc., earlier cinematic masterpiece, a porn based on Sarah Palin.

"These hedge funds didn't do their homework when they made their
investment," said Ault, adding that the funds have already recouped
a chunk of the money...Last September, Ault merged Zealous into Adult Entertainment Capital Inc., a publicly traded firm that issued a press release about plans for a 140-acre East Coast project for the "fast-growing swingers lifestyle.

"Evidently plans for the sequel to Palin Erection 2008 are on hold for now.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

KL Stocks -Eti Tech, Kotra, LCTH, Msia Mosaic & Scomimr

Will Liechtenstein be annexed by Switzerland, or Austria?

Liechtenstein, and its citizens, have long been more than a little strange. All microstates are a little strange, being, like Liechtenstein the, polar political opposite of failed states.

Failed states are plagued by institutions too weak to prop up the flaccid rule of law, and thereby permitting "shadow institutions" (the black market, organized crime, official corruption, non-governmental bases of power) to garner such a mass of power and influence so as to tear apart the thin threads of justice and stability merely by the centrifugal force of their motion.Microstates enjoy an artificially stable state by virtue of their globally envied institutions. Usually, these were created during formative times in global history. Often they were augmented by the highly centralized, even imperial rule in place when the borders were drawn. In Liechtenstein, Vaduz was lorded over by no feudal subject and therefore beholden only to the Emperor (making it the early 18th century, European equivalent of North Carolina for carpet bagging). When Napoleon dismantled the Holy Roman Empire, of which Liechtenstein had officially been member, the tiny Principality, unlike her peers, dissolved into a state with no fealty at all save to its local princes.Come World War I and World War II, the entire country is basically a big safe deposit box for Europe. Set the way forward machine to 2008-2009. Banking is getting clobbered. In other words, the institutions (primarily Swiss) of banking secrecy and investment acumen, which permitted a country which otherwise lacked the critical mass to be even remotely interesting, much less worth using as a safe haven, to hold it together, are under siege.The only real question is: Will Liechtenstein be annexed by Switzerland, or Austria?

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

KL Stocks - BRDB, Coastal, Facbind, Pasdec, Prestar & RCEcap