The Ringgit - to shock and awe ?

In today newspaper, there is a piece of interesting news about how the FMI "thinks" the Malaysian Ringgit is undervalued.

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my/read//2C6702VT0UoY91GE0UuP82Gz1g6n6WgJ

This is interesting because I have been watching closely the USD/Ringgit charts for a while. In the daily chart, it looks like a massive Head & Shoulder has already formed. A Head & Shoulder pattern is usually extremely bearish where the market concerned may see some massive move downwards once the 'neckline' is broken. A brief clarification here:- since it is a USD/Ringgit chart , so the USD is of the bigger value here. When we see the Ringgit going "down", it would mean a lesser amount of Ringgit to exchange for a unit of USD. So we call it appreciation rather than depreciation.

At this very moment, the Rinngit has not confirmed its down move yet as both the Stochastic and the MACD remain positive and still are hooking up. This market may be range bounding for a while before the next big move. The falling and lowly ADX is confirming me on this.


What is more amazing is that the Ringgit weekly chart is also displaying a Head & Shoulder pattern which is complimenting what is going on in the daily chart. And this one is accompanied by a bearish divergence with the MACD which you know, is also extremely bearish. But unlike the daily chart, the weekly chart's Stochastic and the MACD have already turned negative and falling. Both are now below their respective signal line of zero and 50's. But again, the weekly chart ADX is also like its daily's which is lowly and still falling. Thus there is also sign of any trend in this market. You should watch carefully once the Ringgit go below the lower Bollinger Band and close below its previous low. That may really signal the beginning of the Ringgit's rises as a phoenix after the 1998 massive depreciation.

If this appreciation could play out as my reading, then we may see it goes to 3.43/3.36/3.16 .

Of course I as a student of technical analysis cannot offer any 'explanation' to this possible major move. Of course there will be something big which will happen down the line to cause this to happen. But as I am also monitoring the other major FX pairs, I can safely tell you it would NOT due to a sudden depreciation of the USD as their charts are hinting more for a possible major appreciation of the USD . Yes, I know, what I am saying here is simply considered outrageous as the fundamentals do not support this. But then may I ask:- what fundamentals supported the USD last rally ? So I would leave it to all the "experts' to explain to you why the Ringgit rallies AFTER it happens. Thank you very much.

But then on the other hand, if Ringgit stays above 3.60 for awhile, then maybe you should forget you ever read this little piece of rubbish here.

But if you are hard up for one of those 仙家 story for the Ringgit's possible appreciation. Please allow me to share one with you. A decade ago, I consulted a numerology sifu for my reading. Somehow the sifu also got hold the birth data of a certain leader-to-be. The sifu told me that this VVIP will become our No:1, replacing the one that care more about his family ( a 6 person) . According to the sifu, this VVIP will bring kind of prosperity that our nation has never seen before. Yes, the sifu also mentioned that this VVIP will open up and get close to the kwai lo which may bring in much wealth to this nation.(remember that all these were told to me a decade ago) So, is this a good enough "explanation" to as why the Ringgit strengthen ?