Sunday, March 30, 2014

FCPO - An Intermediate Term Sell Signal ! - 3/31/2014

The short position remains intact as did not go back above the bottom band. The Stochastic is now below the 20's zone and as price has already achieved the 61.85 Fibonacci retracement level of its last cycle, so I would want to get my stop a nit tighter from now onwards. Instead of the bottom band, I am switching it to the prior day low.

The MACD has now fallen below its zero signal line which is dangerous for the longer term bull. The DMI stays negative with the ADX turning flat the past 3 sessions. This could mean the market may be getting ready for a new cycle. This is also bad news for the bull. Overall the market would need to get back up at soonest in order for the bull to stay intact.

The weekly chart has flashed a new sell signal as the Stochastic has crossed below 80's signal line. And price is now closed below the top band. Both these 2 are complimenting each other for a new sell signal. Even the slow reacting MACD has now turned negative. The DMI stays positive but the ADX has stopped rising and turned flat, this may be telling us the prior bullish trend has ended. There is a minor bearish divergence at the Stochastic, so if this market is to sink, the move could be substantial.


The monthly chart is still in the bull's favor as the Stochastic and MACD stay positive and rising. But price has now closed below the top band. With the falling ADX, I would say this market is range bounding for now.

If the weekly chart continues to deteriorate , then we may see the bull cycle ended at 2,900+ (my minimum upside target)  Though there is still nothing seriously bearish about this market, but we may still it going another round of massive selling before we can get back to the bullish talk.

FKLI - Market Overbought Again - 3/31/2014


The market continued to show that "we are strong" mentality by going further upward. Price is now above the top band  with MACD and Stochastic positive and rising. Since the ADX continues to stay flat at 12's, so I would watch the Stochastic and start calling it overbought now as the Stochastic has already reached 87's.  I will adjust my stop to either the top band or the prior day low. This depends very much on your personal risk appetite.


 The weekly chart seems to be turning around for the bull. The Stochastic is positive and has now crossed above its 50's signal line. Price has also closed above the top band and most important of all, it has also closed above its recent fractal high of 1845. With these 2, this chart is flashing a new buy signal. So by the coming week, if price can go above the signal week's high of 1849.50, it would be a confirmed buy signal. The MACD is negative but it seems to be turning around fast, by the coming week, it may has turned positive, The DMI stays positive but D+ going up to 27's , another sign that the buyers have been strong. The ADX has stopped falling and gone flat, this could be read as a possibility that a new cycle may begin soon.

The monthly chart has not flashed any new signal yet except it is still a continuation of the prior trend. The Stochastic has remained positive at above the 80's zone. Since ADX stays flat at 18's, Stochastic should be monitored closely for any changes in direction instead of the MACD. Price managed to stay above the top band, so it is still a buyer market. But the bearish divergence remains intact, so cautious still remains the watchword.

There is nothing too bullish about the market from the charts but it is rather the opposite that we should be looking out for. So at the moment, I just trade on all the short term signals until something big happens.

Monday, March 24, 2014

FCPO - Another New Sell Signal Flashed - 3/24/2014

I took out my shorts position when price went back up and closed above the bottom band.  I did not engage any new buy as I did not get any confirmation from the Stochastic. Instead price went back below the bottom band again on last Friday which I engaged another new sell position. An initial stop should be placed above 2786 which is its recent high. After which if price continues to drop, a new stop should be placed at above the bottom band. If price breaks below 2729, I may consider adding more positions to the shorts.

The Stochastic and MACD continue to fall. The DMI is equilibrium at 23's. If it turns negative in the coming week, then it would offer the final sell signal. The ADX continues to fall which has been confirming the end of the prior trend.

The weekly chart may be slowly turning in favor for the bear. Price has closed below the top band with the Stochastic turning negative though it remains within the overbought zone. I take note that the Stochastic has already formed a minor bearish divergence which MAY bring forth some strong selling. But at this time with the contradicting indicators , I would call this a range bound market, especially the MACD and DMI remain positive and the ADX continuing to rise. The ADX is telling us the prior trend remains intact.

The daily chart has just flashed another new sell signal as the weekly chart may get one soon. I would still address the current cycle as a retracement. The MACD is above its zero signal line and the weekly ADX is still rising and the monthly chart is still good, so I cannot say the bull cycle is dead yet. But if when a market retraces a few hundred points , I certainly cannot play the "buy and hold " or the "hold and see what happens next" game. Unlike most of those experts who now turned into super bulls who usually are playing with their company's or clients' money, I am trading with my own hard earned money. I just cannot afford to get liberal with my capital.
FKLI - " We Are Strong" -3/24/2014

Whenever the ADX is below the 20's and especially when it is last at 14's , I just do not want to get too "hot" over a sudden move. As in the case of FKLI now, the ADX has been flat at 14's for the past few sessions, the market did not follow through with the previous week's down move direction. Instead it staged a big come back day on last Monday with a 19.5 points bounce and closed above the bottom band which hit my stop and closed off my prior shorts position. On the next day when price stayed above the bottom band and the Stochastic came in and turned positive, this is flashing an initial buy signal. I bought in on last Wednesday when price went above the signal day high. But this position was immediately demolished on the next day when price went below the signal day low. But I re-engage another new buy on last Friday when price went above Thursday high since it closed back above the bottom band again.

This is one of those "unpleasant " things that would happen to any of us during our trading career. But what I want to emphasize here is that we must adhere to our trading rules by all means. We cannot have the "lets hold another 1-2 days and see what happens next" type of mentality. As that "1-2 days" may break your trading account and invite margins calls.

As at now, I am placing my stop at below the bottom band. And if price can continue to rise further, I will raise the stop to the next band.

The Stochastic stays positive and rises. The MACD is still negative but seeming to be turning around fast. It may be turned positive by the coming week. The DMI is still negative and the ADX continues to stay flat at 14's. So with the low ADX, I would call the current market another smallish cycle so I would use the Stochastic to trade. Once it gets into the 80's zone, get ready to take profit.

The weekly chart is still contradicting as the previous week's. The Stochastic is positive and rising but the MACD stays negative. DMI is positive but deteriorating. The worst of all is the falling ADX which is now at 16's. This is telliing us there is no trend in the market. Price did went below the previous week's low but failed to close below. Instead price fought back and has now closed above the middle band again. There is no new buy signal here yet. I would want to see price close above its recent fractal high of 1845 before mentioning the bull.

I remain more bearish biased, the current buy signal in the daily chart is merely a smallish trading signal. I cannot find anything major bullish in these charts to get excited on. Last week some foreign fund thought Malaysia is the weakest 2 merging markets what would get hit hard next, very swiftly some local "experts" rose and wrote that we are strong and the future is very rosy. A standard "Malaysia Boleh" reaction from our local "experts".

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Germany Prepares To Supply Ukraine If Russia Shuts Off The Gas

merkel REUTERS/Denis Sinyakov
German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Heiligendamm June 6, 2007.

Germany could step up and start supplying excess natural gas to Ukraine should Russian Gas monopoly Gazprom stop deliveries, reports Der Spiegel.
German utility companies RWE and E.on are currently working on plans that could supply Ukraine with weeks’ worth of gas almost immediately.
Frank Dohmen, reporting for Der Spiegel, writes:
In an emergency, the flow through Europe’s pipelines could simply be reversed, with gas getting pumped from German reservoirs through the Czech Republic and Slovakia directly to Ukraine. Following this year’s especially mild winter, Germany’s reservoirs are much fuller than usual. Even long-term deliveries would be conceivable at the moment.
Russia has shut off gas supplies to Ukraine twice since 2006 in attempts to steer Ukrainian politics and Gazprom has threatened to rise prices or shut off gas to Ukraine unless a gas debt is paid.
Ukraine has already signed a preliminary framework agreement with RWE in 2012 making gas deliveries possible. RWE has so far committed to delivering 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Ukraine with the aims of filling the country’s reservoirs for next winter.
Although Germany draws around 35% of its natural gas from Russia, RWE receives its natural gas supply from the Netherlands and Norway.
Currently, Ukraine receives over half of all its natural gas reserves from Russia.
eu gas russia REUTERS
Map of Europe showing how heavily EU countries rely on Russian gas imports.



松 下(Panasonic)宣布将向派往中国的员工发放津贴,以补偿严重污染对他们的危害,成为开 此先河的第一家国际公司。
松下派往中国的员工一般都能得到比较优厚的薪酬待遇,因为外派中国属于“苦差”,但此前松下公司没有明确提到人们对中国可怕的空气质量越来 越大的担忧。
雾霾已成了中国公众不满的焦点,尤其是在北京这类繁华都市,该市曾在2月遭遇连续一周的“有 害”空气。
“这是我第一次听到有公司在这个问题上如此直白,”罗迈国际商务咨询(RMG Selection)的罗伯特•帕金森(Robert Parkinson)说,“通常的作法是将其粉饰成‘发展中国家津贴’。”
“这有点像是在说,我们知道我们让你 暴露于足以危及生命的环境,我们将承认这一点,并就此给予你补偿。”
在上周中国全国人大年会的开幕式上,中国总理李克强表示他的政府将“向污染宣战”。几天后,一份涉及中国74个城市的官方空气监测报告显 示,仅有3个城市达到了国家空气质量标准。
中国政府已经在整顿重污染工厂和钢厂方面作出了一些努力,并承诺会尝试限制道路车辆数目。去年中国政府出炉了一个计划,拟在人口密集的东部 地区减少排放,降低造成污染的炼钢产能,但由于中国对燃烧煤炭的依赖,整治污染的尝试相当困难。
US Multinationals Are Now Holding Nearly $2 Trillion Cash Overseas To Avoid Taxes

Imagine what would happen if they start coming home.

An inefficiency in the US tax code is causing US multinationals to hold more and more cash overseas.

According to data analyzed by Bloomberg, US companies are now holding about $2 trillion abroad.

The multinational companies have accumulated $1.95 trillion outside the U.S., up 11.8 percent from a year earlier, according to securities filings from 307 corporations reviewed by Bloomberg News. Three U.S.-based companies — Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Apple Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. — added $37.5 billion, or 18.2 percent of the total increase.

The basic issue is that US companies are taxed again on money they make abroad when they repatriate that money to the US (for investment or dividends). So they opt to let it pile up in bank accounts abroad.

The US government has in the past had “holidays” where the money could be repatriated tax free, but there was found to be little economic benefit of that. While eliminating the repatriation tax makes sense to some, opponents have argued that this would merely create an incentive to book more and more revenue offshore (which companies can find creative ways to do) to avoid US taxes. And so it keeps piling up.

Three Hypotheses on Korea’s Intense Resentment of Japan

Three Hypotheses on Korea’s
Intense Resentment of JapanAnother perspective on the troubled relations of the East Asian neighbors

Japan-Korea tension has reached a peak in the last year. South Korea’s president, Park Geun-Hye, refuses to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, even after a year in office. Park has met with Premier Xi Jinping of China, but not the Japanese leadership – even though Korea and Japan are both U.S. allies, and despite China’s controversial expansion of its air defense identification zone at both Korea and Japan’s expense. When U.S. Secretary of Defense Charles Hagel went to Japan in the fall of last year to strengthen the alliance as a part of the U.S. pivot to Asia, it was widely read in the Korean media as a snub of Korea. In a fit of pique, Park jetted off to Southeast Asia to pursue a separate, counter-Japanese diplomatic track in Asia. This was roundly cheered in Korea.

Abe, for his part, has visited the always-controversial Yasukuni Shrine and said nothing on recently reiterated Japanese textbook claims to the Korean-controlled Liancourt Rocks. He has repeatedly allowed the creepiest right-wing elements of his electoral coalition to overwhelm good sense in public without rebuke. The most recent disturbing, atrocity-denying outburst has come from NHK television. It is long overdue for Abe to make a high-level statement against this stuff.

China, the major geopolitical beneficiary of such tension, has happily stoked it by constructing a memorial to Ahn Jung-Geun at Park’s request. Ahn assassinated Hirobumi Ito, an early prime minister of Japan and governor-general of occupied Korea at the time of his death (1909). The memorial was built on the location of the shooting, which is today in China. Inevitably, Ahn is denounced as a “terrorist” by the Japanese and celebrated as a “freedom fighter” by Koreans. Korean-Japanese competition has even arrived in U.S. domestic politics, where intense Korean ethnic lobbying in the state of Virginia produced legislation that Virginian textbooks should use the name “East Sea” instead of the more widely used “Sea of Japan” to denote the body of water between Korea and Japan.

All of this significantly complicates the U.S. pivot to Asia, the U.S. confrontation with North Korea, and America’s slow-boiling competition with China in the western Pacific. Korean tension with Japan is a major stumbling block to a more coherent American posture in East Asia. It is arguably the single most important reason for the lack of an Asian NATO. South Korea simply will not accept alignment with Japan, forcing the United States to maintain parallel bilateral alliances with each, rather than a more efficient single multilateral structure. Indeed, were it not for the U.S. alliance, if Korea, Japan and China were acting alone, I would guess that Korea would align against Japan in a Sino-Japanese conflict. Korean dislike for Japan is that intense. By way of example, read this (in Korean), in which the sweater of a guest on a Korean TV show, which looked vaguely like the Japanese imperial flag, forced the guest to apologize to offended viewers, or this, in which a major Korean paper actually suggests Japanese samurai might invade the Liancourt Rocks.

The question then is why the Korean disdain for Japan is so high that even sweaters are offensive and fantastical samurai invasions go unremarked. I have said many times before (here, here) that Korea’s grievances with Japan are very legitimate: Japan sexually enslaved Korean women into wartime brothels; it attempted to erase Korea as a cultural entity by coercing the use of Japanese, even to the point of re-naming people (there are still Koreans alive who went through this); Japan has not really come clean about the empire and the war – a point made not just by Korea, but by China and the U.S. as well.

But Koreans do not stop there; they go over-the-top with things like the “Sea of Japan” re-naming campaign with no obvious point other than to provoke Japan, unfounded claims that Japan wants to invade Korea again, equating bad Japanese behavior in Korea with the far-worse Holocaust, or that Liancourt is worth going to war over – even though a Korean use of force against Japan would almost certainly result in a U.S. departure from South Korea and dramatically reduced Korean security. Other victims of earlier Japanese imperialism do not talk like this, and I think a lot of well-meaning Japanese, who do recognize what Japan did in Korea, are genuinely baffled by all the vitriol.

I see three possible explanations, and for any graduate students in east Asian studies, sociology or political science, this is a great research question. Again, the issue is not why does Korea dislike Japan. Japan’s imperial behavior and continued ambivalence all but ensures that. The real question is why Korean animosity is so off-the-charts. Here are three hypotheses:

1. Koreans have always been sharply anti-Japanese since the war; we just did not see that until democratization twenty-five years ago made expression of public opinion easier and less manipulated by the government.

Japanese colleagues often note to me that Korea did not start talking this way until the last few decades – the implication being that tension with Japan is the politicization of something no one cared about earlier. That may not be so, because of what social scientists call “hidden preferences” – under dictatorships, there are strong incentives to keep your true feelings to yourself. Opposition to regime preferences might land you in jail or worse. Korea was such a dictatorship until the late 1980s. So moves by earlier Korean leaders to deal with Japan may not have been approved of by a population which, however, was unable to impact policy. For example, there were mass protests against the Japan-Korea normalization treaty of 1965. Were Korea a democracy at the time, the treaty would likely have collapsed just as an intelligence sharing pact did two years ago. If this hypothesis is right, Koreans really do feel threatened by Japan and reconciliation is far away.

2. The late 1980s/early 1990s rise of intense anti-Japanese feeling coincides with the passing of the first generation of South Korea’s political and business elites.

There is a sharp ongoing historical debate about just how much South Korea’s first generation collaborated with the Japanese occupation. The founders of the chaebol are often particularly suspected, but it is no stretch to suggest that only collaborators would have had the education, political connections, wealth, skills, and so on to enter the postwar elite. This idea would suggest that as these guys died out and were replaced by a second, untainted post-colonial generation, that the new generation wanted to dig into the past the way earlier elites did not. Vitriol today on Japan may reflect embarrassment at Korean collaboration yesterday during the occupation.

3. When South Korea democratized, it needed some kind of legitimating story (unnecessary under authoritarianism).
Because of corrupted institutions, “deep state” elitism at the top, and a debilitating legitimacy competition with the DPRK that confuses loyalties, South Korea has struggled to connect with its own citizenry. It cannot be the anti-DRPK it should be, because not enough South Koreans share a strict “enemy image” of North Korea. Instead South Korea has fallen back on Japanophobia, being the anti-Japan, to legitimate itself, because all Koreans, north and south, can agree that Japan was bad.

All three of these are probably somewhat correct, but I would tilt toward the third. All add important psychological elements that help explain Korean hyperbole on Japan beyond otherwise reasonable concerns about history. Hostility toward Japan is not just a political posture, but is part of the South Korean political identity. Washington in particular should stop pretending that this is something that it can resolve with its typical, the-hegemon-is-here-to-save-the-day interventionism. It can’t.

Sabotage Suspected on Missing Jet, as Search Area Expands

Malaysian officials investigating the disappearance of Flight MH370 say evidence from military radar-tracking suggests it was deliberately flown off its course. "What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards," one official says

A report indicated Friday that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 might have been deliberately flown off course when it vanished without a trace almost a week ago, as the search radius for the missing jet expanded once again amid conflicting reports and dashed hopes.
Reuters, citing unnamed sources familiar with the investigation into the disappearance, reports that military radar-tracking evidence suggests the Boeing 777 was deliberately flown across the Malay peninsula toward the Andaman Islands, a chain of isles between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. An unidentified aircraft was apparently spotted following a route between navigational waypoints, indicating the pilot had considerable aviation training. The revelation has renewed questions about whether foul play was involved in the disappearance of a plane that was carrying 239 people from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, and for which authorities have scoured the ocean for days to no avail.

“What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards,” one source, a senior Malaysian police official, told Reuters.

Malaysian officials said Thursday that two communications systems on board the aircraft—the data reporting system and the transponder transmitting location and altitude—shut down 14 minutes apart. Some analysts claim this points toward a deliberate attempt to conceal the aircraft’s movements. But retired Colonel J. F. Josephs, an aviation accident investigator, said “this seems speculative and somewhat of a reach.

“You could choose to shut down both systems simultaneously, and it could just as well have been caused by an electrical failure,” he told TIME.

The U.S. Navy destroyer USS Kidd is currently cruising toward the Indian Ocean, the opposite direction of the ill-fated flight’s original route. Malaysian authorities have requested the vessel’s help there after it emerged that “pings” may have been picked up from the plane’s service data system up to five hours after its transponder emitted its last signal.

“Certain ships and aircraft stay in the east, and some go to the west,” Cmdr. William Marks of the U.S. 7th Fleet told CNN on Thursday. “We’re moving to the west.”

Mark said moving into the third largest ocean in the world will be like going “from a chess board to a football field.”

“It’s a completely new game,” he said. “Now we have to come up with a new strategy, new tactics.”

Josephs, who took part in locating the Air France flight 447 that crashed into the Atlantic in 2009, called it a “daunting task.”
“Even if you’re in the right grid coordinates, there are so many variables that affect the probability of detection,” he said. “The illumination, the sea stack, weather, salt. You could be able to see for millions of miles at an altitude, but at the surface you’re relying on acoustics equipment and looking through binoculars for hours at the time.”

Air traffic controllers lost contact with the plane, carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew, at about 1:30 a.m. Saturday. The jetliner had just reached cruising altitude of almost 35,000 feet and was located at the mouth of the Gulf of Thailand. No distress call was received. Twelve nations have become involved in a search and rescue operation involving scores of ships and aircraft, scouring an expanding area on both sides of the Malay Peninsula.

While U.S. officials told CNN that the Indian Ocean is a likely crash site, other facts continue to deepen the mystery. An electrical failure of the magnitude Josephs suggested would be a somewhat catastrophic scenario, which would likely also have impacted the pilots navigating capability.

“Some sort of failure that takes out communications would probably also take out navigation since the electronics are based in the same place,” said Bruce Rodger, an aviation consultant at Aero Consulting Experts, a company that provide litigators with expert material. “The pilots would have been inundated with smoke, have their masks on, basically flying blind until the gas runs out.”
However, Rodger added, a fire like that would probably take out other systems too, making it unlikely for the aircraft to stay airborne for as long as five hours. But any drastic deceleration of the aircraft would have set off the emergency beacon, which never occurred.

“It’s unusual that the emergency beacon didn’t go off,” Rodger said. “It could mean that the plane didn’t crash, it didn’t end up in the water or that an explosion completely annihilated the device.”
Both Josephs and Rodger said that with significant knowledge, it would be possible to shut down both the data reporting system and the transponder manually. A person savvy enough to do that would “absolutely” be able to fly to another location without being detected as well.

“It’s all very odd, but I’m not here to speculate,” Rodger said. “The aircraft will turn up eventually. Give it less than a week, and then we’ll be on our way to getting the answers.”


据中国《人民日报》官方微博消息,为核实3月9日中国高分一号卫星在马航失联飞机疑似失事海域发现的疑似 物,中国海上搜救中心于周四(13日)中午派出“井岗山舰”前往该水域实地核查。
文章说,从高分辨率的侦察卫星到先进的战舰,中国军方在搜索马航失联客机的行动中充分显示自己的实力,引起亚洲国家对中国未来可能在地区有 更强硬的展现表示担忧。
在马航客机MH370连带机上239人失踪6天后,北京与吉隆坡之间的关系显示出紧张,中国 总理李克强批评马来西亚处理此次危机的方式,并派出多艘战舰和50多名陆战队员参加搜索。


马来西亚是中国在这片有主权争议的区域中关系最好的国家之一,中国视绝大部分南中国海为自己的领土,但越南、菲律宾、文莱和台湾等也声称他 们对此拥有主权。
由于马航失联客机上有近三分之二乘客是中国人,所以中国海军派出最先进的两栖攻击舰和2万吨级舰船参加搜索,还动用了十颗卫星进行信息技术 支持。


尽管中国已经在有主权争端的南中国海的西沙和南沙群岛扩建了监听站、港口和机场跑道,但中国专家仍然表示,需要建立更多设施来对付人道灾 害。
中国在此次搜索马航失联客机行动中的表现已经引起越南公众的关注,越南网民在社交媒体上说,中国的战机和军舰在越南海岸附近出现,使他们深 感疑虑。
Another Deadly Knife Attack Puts China on Edge

A woman cries after her parent was killed in
a knifing incident in Changsha, Hunan province March 14, 2014.A woman cries after her parent was killed in a knifing incident in Changsha, Hunan province March 14, 2014. A woman cries after her parent was killed in a knifing incident in Changsha, Hunan province, China, March 14, 2014. Reuters

Just two weeks after a mass stabbing in southwest China claimed 29 lives, and days after 153 Chinese disappeared on Flight MH370, another tragedy appears to have struck the Middle Kingdom

Not again? On the morning of March 14, knife-wielding individuals unleashed a stabbing attack in Changsha, the capital of central China’s Hunan province. Three people were killed and two seriously injured, according to Chinese media. In addition, one suspect was shot dead by police and another was captured, reported the People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party. Three suspects are still at large.

Friday morning’s bloodshed echoed a far deadlier rampage on March 1 in the southwestern city of Kunming, which resulted in 29 deaths and more than 140 injuries. That mass murder binge was blamed by the Chinese government on separatists from the troubled northwestern region of Xinjiang, which is home to the Turkic-speaking, largely Muslim Uighur ethnic minority. All eight of the assailants were either killed or captured. Only one of the attackers’ names has been made public. A couple of days after the carnage, Chinese authorities deemed the case “solved.”

Hunan Metropolis TV reported that Friday’s violence originated with an altercation between street vendors. The Oriental Morning Post, a Shanghai-based newspaper, gave more details: employees at a Xinjiang-style bakery — Uighur flatbreads are popular street food in parts of China — began fighting. One stabbed the other to death and then lashed out at passersby. Hunan Transportation Radio filed a different take: the catalyzing fight took place not between vendors but between a bakery employee and locals buying bread.

If either of these accounts is correct, Friday’s bloodshed seems unlikely to be another terror attack, like the one in Kunming that seemed designed for maximum horror. Xinhua, the state news agency that is usually the main arbiter of major Chinese news, has not yet described the origins of the attack.

Photos allegedly of the incident on the People’s Daily’s Weibo microblog feed show human figures lying prone on the street. Another image is purportedly of the captured assailant. His arms look like they have been handcuffed behind him, and policemen appear to be leading him toward a police vehicle. The man has a mustache; he does not look like a typical Han, the ethnic majority group of China.

Large-scale paroxysms of violence, like the terror attack in Kunming, are extremely rare in China, where a security state and lack of gun ownership have helped prevent mass bloodshed. But it’s not uncommon for frustrated individuals — often nursing some sort of unresolved legal or societal grievances — to slash at people in crowded public places. Nearly all of these incidents outside Xinjiang have involved disaffected Han. In fact, last September, a male former hospital patient attacked three nurses with a knife. The city was Changsha.
FCPO - A Correction Finally Come - 3/27/2014

While the market experts have all by now turned extremely bullish on this market, I have been warning on an overbought and overheated market for the past 2 weeks. And a correction finally came last week when price closed below the top band on last Wednesday and that closed off my long positions. And this was followed through with the MACD turning negative on the next day. The Stochastic went below its 80's level on last Friday. The ADX has begun to fall from above the DMI, this is the best confirmation that the prior trend has ended. The usually slow reacting DMI remains positive but the D+ is fast falling while the D- is fast rising, this is indicating the buyers are losing confidence fast.

I sold the market on last Thursday when price went lower than the signal day low and place my stop at the top band. I have to be very careful on the selling as it is against the greater bullish trend. The MACD is "far" above its zero signal line which means the market is still a bull dominated market. But since there is a bearish divergence at the Stochastic , I do expect the current correction to be a sizable one.


The weekly chart's bull is still not in trouble as the MACD , Stochastic and DMI stay positive . Price stays above the top band but the black body Japanese Candlestick is confirming the steam losing momentum. The rising ADX confirms the current trend stays intact.

The bigger picture bull cycle is not over yet but the immediate time parameter is confirmed overbought and overheated so we are now experiencing a retracement. And the dwindling US Dollar has been helping to bring down prices.
FKLI - Is It About War In Crimea Or MH370 Security Breach ? - 3/17/2014

Last week I wrote that I stayed alert for a possible collapse in this market and the collapse did come on last Monday when price gapped down below the top and middle band in one go. The MACD and DMI turned negative again on the same day while the Stochastic continues to deteriorate. Please take note that now the MACD is about to cross below its zero signal line and the Stochastic has already crossed below its 50's signal line, both signal lines are usually used to determine the bull/bear boundary. The D- has reached 37's which is confirming the strong strength of the sellers. The ADX has finally begun to rise which is indicating the beginning of a new cycle. But since it is still at 14's, I would want to monitor it for a few more days for a continuing trend. Since price is now below the bottom band, it is a confirmed bear market. I am placing my stop at the bottom band.

The weekly chart's indicators are giving a contradicting signal as the Stochastic is positive and rising but the MACD is falling again. The positive DMI continues to deteriorate with the D+ falling and the D- rising. This means the sellers are trying to overpower the buyers. The ADX has begun to fall again. Price has closed below the middle band which is the de facto 20 periods moving average. Though we do not yet have a confirmation from the Stochastic but I would regard this an initial sell signal. So if in the coming week with price going below last week low of 1795, then I would call it as a confirmed sell. Of course if price can close below the bottom band, it would be an added bonus.

I have remained extremely bearish biased for the past few months as there is a multiple bearish divergence formed at both the daily and weekly chart. A negative divergence merely reflect the dark hands have been trying to buy 5 but try to sell 50 without alarming the market and they will try their best to talk up the market with the helps from the market experts. But their actions is always reflected very clearly in the chart. Of course I would not say the market is guaranteed to collapse just because I see them there, but I would immediately get very cautious with the long positions which the right things to do are to reduce long positions and certainly not to add on to them and clean up all the bullish thinkings in my mind.

The current bear cycle, if successfully formed, should see the market goes to a minimum target of 1585.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

马航 MH370 - 两欧洲乘客被顶替登机 美调查马航失联是否涉恐怖主义

【两个神秘的“马航失联航班”旅客】3月8日,马来西亚航空公司披露的“失联客机”乘客名单中,意大利和奥地利各有1人。但据外媒报道,意大利和 奥地利官方分别称,上述两人均未登上“失联客机”,并且,两人此前均有过“护照被盗”记录。关于此事,马航和中国方面,截至目前,均尚未有官方消 息发布。

【美国调查马航失联是否涉恐怖主义】美国全国广播公司零时22分报道,美国官员称,在马航乘客名单中的一名意大利公民和一名奥地利公民已被证实并 未登机,两人护照均曾被盗,因此引发了涉及恐怖主义的担忧,美国方面正在进行相关调查。(新浪)

【新华社:“奥地利乘客”是谁?】奥地利外交部发言人马丁·维斯证实,马航公布的“失联客机乘客名单”中的奥地利籍乘客,本人没有登机。维斯说, 马航向奥地利通报这一事件后,奥方在例行检查中发现,这名奥地利人61岁,现在,人在奥地利,其2012年曾在泰国丢失护照。

【意媒:意大利男子并未登机此前护照被偷】意大利《共和报》:37岁的意大利男子路易吉马拉尔迪的名字出现在了MH370名单里。但其父说,儿子 并未登机。去年8月,马尔拉迪曾在亚洲遗失护照。意媒分析,可能是有人持遗失的护照上了飞机。南都记者刘竹溪
马航MH370 越来越蹊跷

越来越蹊跷 两名冒名登机者机票由中国南航出票

现在全世界最关注的马航失联飞机新闻就是这两句话:1)两位乘客用意大利和奥地利人丢失的护照登机。2)两位冒名登机者机票由中国南航出售。挂失 的护照,不应该再能跑到南航能买机票。在马来西亚登机,却从南航买票,这样更方便么?伪装的“意大利人”和“奥地利人”如此成功的登上了前往北京 的飞机,而此时的北京是一年中最重要的时候,再结合前几天西南边陲事件,这个就麻烦了,还有这二张票是南航出票的。此二人一定有着欧洲人的相貌, 他们为什么选择前往北京的航班呢?此刻北京有着最严密的防控治安体系!








人民网罗马3月8日电(史克栋)据意大利安莎社最新消息,马来西亚航空公司失联的飞往北京的MH370航班名单中,今年37岁的意大利乘客 Luigi Maraldi已经确认其不在飞机上。

意大利《共和国报》网站消息称,意大利外交部已经与这名意大利人取得联系,Luigi Marald也于意大利时间上午与家人通了电话,讲其现在泰国。据报道称,意大利人Luigi Marald在2013年8月1日曾在泰国护照被偷,他曾回意大利办理了新的护照后重返泰国。目前有一种可能是有人用他丢失的护照登机。



美国全国广播公司报道,消息人士称,马航乘客名单中的一名意大利公民和一名奥地利公民护照都是在泰国被盗。前者护照失窃于1年前,后者护照失窃于 2年前。



完美考拉:把现有的信息梳理了一下:1、两本被冒名登机的护照都是在泰国丢失的;2、这两张机票都是在共享航班代码的南航出票的;3、飞机突然失 联从技术上分析只可能是突然解体或发生爆炸,基本排除劫持和故障的可能;4、如果是有预谋的恐怖袭击,来自何方指向何方?表达什么诉求?又为什么 要冒充他人身份?


Richard Quest说,马来西亚和中国都有非常完善的边检系统。这两个护照在2年前就已经申报被盗了,是如何买票,登机的呢?@南方航空要给个解释吧。马来西亚的 安检和边检更是问题很大啊。

花哥:都在南航出票这个最诡异。如果是恐怖袭击,一种是劫持一种是毁机,劫持的话早该降落,油料飞行范围内能降777的机场不会小,消息封锁不可 能。毁机?瞬间解体那得多大当量炸药,没地面安检或地勒配合不可能登机,可目的何在?这么NB也没人认领,难道有后续?只是分析,没有任何散布恐 怖信息之意。

SEPANG, March 8 — The case of the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 aircraft took on a sinister twist today after reports emerged that two foreigners - one Italian and one Austrian - listed on the flight manifest never boarded the plane.
According to several foreign news reports, Italian Luigi Maraldi and Austrian Christian Kozel, both had their passports stolen some time ago.
The reports appeared to suggest the possibility of foul play onboard the ill-fated Boeing B777-200 aircraft which has now been missing for nearly 24 hours.
Speaking to reporters here, deputy Transport Minister Datuk Aziz Kaprawi acknowledged the news report on the Italian’s allegedly stolen passport and said the authorities are probing the matter for possible foul play.
“The information is still under review,” he said.
According to Department of Civil Aviation’s director-general Datuk Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the airport authorities have examined security footage of the passengers and the baggage.

“This is an issue of security. So far we are satisfied,” he said.
Asked if the authorities have completely ruled out the possibility of a hijacking or terrorism, he said he could not disclose more on the matter until the claim has been verified.
According to the UK-based The Telegraph, the 37-year-old Maraldi told his parents he was in Thailand and never boarded the flight, after his name turned up on the manifest.
In a report on The Guardian, Austria’s foreign ministry spokesman Martin Weiss was quoted as telling media that the Austrian citizen listed on the manifest is safe in his home country and had his passport stolen some years ago in Thailand.
Earlier this morning, MAS confirmed that Subang Air Traffic Control had lost contact with the Beijing-bound MAS flight MH370 which was carrying 239 people, including 12 crew members.
The plane reportedly fell off the radar when it was 120 nautical miles off the coast of Kota Baru and was reported missing at 2.40am this morning, two hours after take-off.
It was originally scheduled to land it Beijing at 6.30am local time.
A massive search and rescue operation involving Malaysian and foreign military assets have been mounted to locate the missing aircraft between Malaysian and Vietnamese waters.
Unconfirmed reports have streamed in, claiming of a 12-mile long oil slick sighting between the waters of Malaysia and Vietnam, allegedly due to the crashed plane.
MAS has yet to confirm the report.

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Russia Plays Ukraine Gas Card—Again

Russia appears to be backing down slightly over Ukraine, with President Vladimir Putin saying that military force would be a last resort amid the threat of US sanctions, but Moscow is expectedly playing the gas card—again.   

Speaking in a live televised address on RT News, Putin said Russia would employ military force in Ukraine as a last resort, but still reserved the right to use all options in Ukraine to protect from the threat of “terror”.

"As for bringing in forces, for now there is no such need but such a possibility exists," he said. "What could serve as a reason to use military force? It would naturally be the last resort, absolutely the last."
Moscow views recent events in Ukraine as no less than a coup that led to the ouster of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

US officials have threatened to impose sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, while Putin commented that such a move would be counterproductive. Putin noted in his public address that Moscow did not believe there was a political future for Yanukovych and was concerned only for “humanitarian reasons”.

The ouster of Yanukovych was the culmination of months of street protests in Kiev. The latest crisis is in response to Russia’s seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea region, where Russia houses its Black Sea Fleet, which has led to an ongoing military standoff between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian forces at the Belbek airbase.  

After a day of panic on Monday, Putin’s comments today sparked a lift in the Russian bond markets.

Putin’s comments come as US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in the Ukrainian capital Kiev, bringing with him news of an economic package and technical assistance for the country.   
Coupled with the looming threat of a Russian incursion into parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, Russia is also trying to raise the pressure on Ukraine by predictably playing the gas card.
Russian gas giant Gazprom has threatened to remove a gas price discount in April. However, according to Robert Bensh, the majority shareholder in Cub Energy in Ukraine, Gazprom’s move could actually bolster the new government in Kiev. 

“This move by Gazprom was not unexpected—especially since the discount in question was a deal made under Yanukovych late last year. So this is an obvious reprisal for his ouster,” Bensh said.

“But what’s interesting is that the new administration in Kiev could take advantage of this and play the Russian aggression card when it has to implement an increase in domestic gas prices in order to satisfy the IMF [International Monetary Fund],” Bensh said.
“This will make it much easier for the new administration to convince the public of the need for a gas price increase, so unwittingly, Moscow, through Gazprom, may be helping to prop up the new government in Kiev.”  

The US is also considering a Congressional push to approve $1 billion in loan guarantees to help ease the sting of proposed energy subsidy cuts.


奥运会似乎总能激起弗拉基米尔•普京 (Vladimir Putin)总统的复仇渴望。2008年,我正前往机场准备去北京参加奥运会开幕式,却接到确凿情报称大批俄罗斯军队进入格鲁吉亚领土。俄罗斯黑海舰队驶 离塞瓦斯托波尔基地,逼近格鲁吉亚的海岸线。
长期以来,俄罗斯一直在格鲁吉亚境内开展“代理人运动”,为其在当地的共谋者提供武装和训练,指使他们进行暴力挑衅。同样,俄罗斯上周末从 乌克兰手中夺取克里米亚,只是其不断加强的攻势的最新一步棋。

两起事件不仅策略相似,编造的借口也相同。普京似乎要证明,入侵乌克兰对保护俄罗斯公民是必要的。2008年也是差不多的说法。首先,俄罗 斯向许多格鲁吉亚人颁发俄罗斯护照。接下来,煽动者挑起麻烦。

如 果说普京的行为令人有似曾相识之感,世界的反应也是如此。若不是普京一开始得逞,成功分裂欧洲,阻止西方接纳他所划俄势力范围内的国家,他本 不会入侵格鲁 吉亚。2008年,普京阻止北约(Nato)吸纳格鲁吉亚和乌克兰加入其“成员行动计划”(注:MAP,即加入北约的第一步)。几个月前,在 他的干扰下, 乌克兰与欧盟(EU)暂停签署联系国协定。
普京对他的计划是毫不忸怩作态的。在他入侵格鲁吉亚之前,他和他的亲密伙伴反复警告,与我国的战 争一触即发。自2008年布加勒斯特峰会以来,他一直坚称乌克兰不是一个国家,而是一个地区,暗指它应当被分治。乌克兰某邻国的领导人曾向我 透 露:2012年,普京提议将乌克兰一分为二,分别划入俄罗斯和他的国家,这让他大为惊讶。这位领导人向我表示,这听起来不像是玩笑话。

普京的坦率不仅表现出他对诚实美德的看重。他公开自己的意图,也是为了事先试探西方的反应。我确信,倘若我们的西方伙伴听取我们的求助呼 吁,入侵格鲁吉亚的事情就不会发生。而且,在俄罗斯占领我国五分之一领土后,如果西方做出合理的反应,普京如今也不会入侵乌克兰领土。

相 反,西方的许多政策制定者为了避免麻烦,干脆忘记了欧盟签署的停火协议,而正是它为俄军撤出格鲁吉亚领土提供了依据。他们往往不尊重常识,而 是听取一批 “专家”和“有用的白痴”的意见,这些人不公正地指责格鲁吉亚应承担责任。2008年,我警告乌克兰可能成为下一个受害者,但即使是欧美政界 的同情派也认 为我是在妄想。

他们这次将如何反应?还是那句话,“似曾相识”的景象令人沮丧。越来越多的西方人疯狂地试图为俄罗斯的行动正名。2008年,他们听信了俄 罗斯指称格鲁吉亚率先行动的说法,以及南奥塞梯平民大量伤亡的赤裸谎言。现在他们又“恰如其分地”担心乌克兰境内说俄语的少数族群。

CNN 驻莫斯科记者甚至认为,乌克兰多个城市推倒列宁像的行为可能吓到该国的俄语居民。一些西方记者和政策制定者援引历史原因,解释俄罗斯有权入侵 邻国领土。他 们开始谈论“严格意义上的乌克兰(Ukraine proper)”,暗示克里米亚从乌克兰分离出去是自然而然的。

欧洲和美国必须正视两个简单的问题。它们是否准备继续鼓励各国追求自由和民主?如果是这样,那么每当普京决定惩罚怀着这种目标的国家时,欧 洲和美国会不会抛弃这些国家?

俄罗斯总是高估自己的力量,西方民主国家往往低估自己的力量。它们的影响力远胜俄罗斯。但西方挺身维护自己的价值观、原则——当然还有自己 的切身利益——需要远见和勇气。
普京在乌克兰的图谋已很清楚。夺取它的一部分领土,在其余地区制造混乱,这将挫伤欧洲接纳乌克兰的热情。这样一来,乌克兰将很容易落入居心 叵测的俄罗斯手中。

俄罗斯不会就此止步。如果普京得逞,他的下一个目标将是波罗的海国家。欧盟和北约如要阻止这一切发生,就要立刻行动。它们应当全面考虑可选 择的方案,如经济制裁和军事威慑。

中国的外交政策更加咄咄逼人 真正的意图显露无遗


《独立报》 - 中国军事实力实现“大跃进”


《独立报》在北京的记者报道说,中国军费今年将增加12.2%,总数达到1320亿美元。与此同时已经巩固了权力的习近平开始了更 加咄咄逼人的外交政策。







Jon Stewart Completely Dismantles Putin’s Lies About Russian Troops In Ukraine

Screen Shot 2014 03 07 at 7.25.06 AM
Daily Show/screenshot
“I am a Russian soldier.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a press conference this week during which he denied sending Russian troops to the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.
Jon Stewart has now cut straight through the propoganda.
Putin told the journalists that he wanted to have a “conversation,” and then told them to ask him the questions and be quiet.
‘I forgot an interesting fact: In Russia, the word for conversation’ is the same word as the word for ‘Shut the f— up.”
Stewart then poses the question: “First things first: Alright Vladimir, are there Russian troops in the Ukraine?”
Putin told journalists that the armed men controlling the strategic peninsula are “local self-defense units” — Stewart then plays a clip of armed gunman saying “I am a Russian soldier.”
To Putin’s assertion that the armed men could have bought their Russian military uniforms from a store, Stewart replies that “I’m not sure you can go to the store and buy 10,000 of them, or have that store throw in RUSSIAN TANKS.”
 Great stuff. Check it out:
Stewart then segues into slamming media pundits on Fox News who have been lionizing Putin as a tough guy to bash President Obama. “Who would be fooled by this guy’s bullshit?” Stewart asks. Another classic segment:

Why Putin Doesn’t Respect Us

Just as we’ve turned the coverage of politics into sports, we’re doing the same with geopolitics. There is much nonsense being written about how Vladimir Putin showed how he is “tougher” than Barack Obama and how Obama now needs to demonstrate his manhood. This is how great powers get drawn into the politics of small tribes and end up in great wars that end badly for everyone. We vastly exaggerate Putin’s strength — so does he — and we vastly underestimate our own strength, and ability to weaken him through nonmilitary means.
Let’s start with Putin. Any man who actually believes, as Putin has said, that the breakup of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century is caught up in a dangerous fantasy that can’t end well for him or his people. The Soviet Union died because Communism could not provide rising standards of living, and its collapse actually unleashed boundless human energy all across Eastern Europe and Russia. A wise Putin would have redesigned Russia so its vast human talent could take advantage of all that energy. He would be fighting today to get Russia into the European Union, not to keep Ukraine out. But that is not who Putin is and never will be. He is guilty of the soft bigotry of low expectations toward his people and prefers to turn Russia into a mafia-run petro-state — all the better to steal from.
So Putin is now fighting human nature among his own young people and his neighbors — who both want more E.U. and less Putinism. To put it in market terms, Putin is long oil and short history. He has made himself steadily richer and Russia steadily more reliant on natural resources rather than its human ones. History will not be kind to him — especially if energy prices ever collapse.
So spare me the Putin-body-slammed-Obama prattle. This isn’t All-Star Wrestling. The fact that Putin has seized Crimea, a Russian-speaking zone of Ukraine, once part of Russia, where many of the citizens prefer to be part of Russia and where Russia has a major naval base, is not like taking Poland. I support economic and diplomatic sanctions to punish Russia for its violation of international norms and making clear that harsher sanctions, even military aid for Kiev, would ensue should Putin try to bite off more of Ukraine. But we need to remember that that little corner of the world is always going to mean more, much more, to Putin than to us, and we should refrain from making threats on which we’re not going to deliver.
What disturbs me about Crimea is the larger trend it fits into, that Putinism used to just be a threat to Russia but is now becoming a threat to global stability. I opposed expanding NATO toward Russia after the Cold War, when Russia was at its most democratic and least threatening. It remains one of the dumbest things we’ve ever done and, of course, laid the groundwork for Putin’s rise.

QE's - What "EXPERTS" Have Been Telling You Are ALL WRONG


Who says QE is ineffective? If you’re an owner of real estate or financial assets, it’s pretty darn fucking effective.

From the Wall Street Journal:

    The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations rose 14% last year, or almost $10 trillion, to $80.7 trillion, the highest on record, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. Even adjusted for inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, U.S. household net worth—the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—hit a fresh record.


Everything is awesome.

Mission Accomplished.

FCPO - Uptrend Intact But Getting Overbought - 3/11/2014

Last week I mentioned about the ADX has gone above the DMI which I usually consider it as the ultimate confirmation of an overbought market. And now even the Stochastic has formed a minor bearish divergence. Of course the warning signals are blinking, but the market can continue to stay "overbought" with price go higher and higher. With such situation, we should begin to tighten our stop or even reducing positions. This is not the time to add on positions. But most important of all is that you should NEVER start to sell the market just because it is considered as overbought. This is something I notice many stock commentators suggesting their readers to  buy in stock just because they are oversold.
As far as the chart is concerned, there is still nothing to say the market is "dying". The price is above the top band and MACD is still rising, the Stochastic stays above the 80's zone, the DMI is also positive. As long as the ADX continues to rise, the trend is still intact. Again since the ADX has now reached 44's , this is also another sign that the market may has got too "hot".

I continue to place my stop at below the top band.

At the weekly chart, the bull is still getting all the cheering. Price continues to pull away further from the top band. This is another way to confirm the strength of the bull. all the 3 indicators are still positive and rising. The D+ has now risen to 36's which is also telling us that the buying is strong. The ADX continues to rise and this is confirming the current trend stays intact.
The extreme dry weather continues to fuel the current FCPO bull run.
FKLI - Everybody Waiting For What's Next Coming Out Of Crimea - 3/11/2014

The market flashed a new sell signal on last Monday when price went below the top band with the Stochastic crossed below the 80's signal line. But the signal was not confirmed because price did not go below the signal day low. Instead price begun to drift upward again. We are having a contradicting indicators signals now with a positive MACD and a negative Stochastic. The DMI has begun to wriggling like a worm and ADX has been falling and it has now reached 12's level. All these are confirming a listless market.

Since price has been hugging below the top band, so the market is still bearish biased.


At the weekly chart, there is an interesting development for the bull. The Stochastic is in the process of crossing above its 20's level. I will wait for price to cross above the top band to call for a new buy signal. The MACD stays negative and DMI is positive. But since the ADX stays flat and below the 20's signal line which is confirming a listless market, I am not too enthusiastic on the possible new buy signal yet.

 At both the daily and weekly chart all are pointing to a listless market . But I continue to stay alert for a possible collapse in the market as presence of a multiple bearish divergences in the chart. As the Crimea crisis can go either way, any clashes will definitely bring fear out in the market, even though it may not affect Malaysia directly.