Thursday, October 31, 2013

透视中国:“我的西域,你的东土”

"否认新疆的叫法,说那应该是东突厥斯坦, 意即突厥人的土地"

海外维吾尔社区领袖说,东突厥斯坦,意即突厥人的土地。
周一发生在北京天安门广场的致命车撞事件再次令新疆的民族矛盾受到关注。新疆的民族隔阂如多年前王力雄在《我的西域,你的东土》中 所描述的那样复杂而令人困惑。
10.28事件被中国官方定性为“一起经过严密策划,有组织、有预谋的暴力恐怖袭击案件”。另外从姓名判断,在事发现场死亡的三人 和被抓获涉案的5名嫌疑人都是维族。因此新疆的民族矛盾和维吾尔人的民族诉求再次成为受关注话题。
据中国官方报道,“28日12时许,乌斯曼·艾山及其妻子母亲等3人驾车闯入长安街便道故意冲撞游人群众后,撞向金水桥护栏,点燃 车内汽油致车辆起火燃烧,三人当场死亡”,“5名在逃涉案人员全部抓获。案件仍在审查中。”
東突厥斯坦共和國國徽


世界维吾尔大会主席热比娅在华盛顿发表声明,称担心中国政府将捏造事实,并利用天安门撞车事件为借口加 强镇压新疆维族人民。热比娅还担心镇压会引起维族人的反抗。早先接受采访的北美地区维吾尔人社区领袖认为,在中国的民族歧视政策下,维吾尔人 的暴力抗议会越来越多,其他被边缘化的民族,诸如西藏和蒙古族的激烈反抗也会越来越多。

突厥人的土地?

上周在加拿大多伦多召开的第六届全球支援中国和亚洲民主化论坛会议上,加拿大维吾尔协会主席马西莫夫接受采访时首先否认新疆的叫法,说那应该是东突厥斯坦,意即突厥人的土地。
他说新疆的问题是,汉族人口大量涌入,汉族人口比例由以前的4%已经增 加到了45%,维吾尔人在当地被边缘化。他认为中共当局只代表汉族人的利益,对于维吾尔 人来说,自决是唯一的选择,因为目前新疆实现的民族自治走不通。
不过新疆地区多民族的现实,也就是并非所有的非汉民族都属于突厥语民族,甚至有许 多新疆少数民族可能并不热衷于在新疆建立维吾尔民族国家的前景,马西莫夫对此一语带过,说非突厥语民族诸如蒙古族也 是和维吾尔人有关系的民族。

民族隔阂

在美国和加拿大维吾尔社区领袖强调维吾尔民族自决的时候,有在加拿大的新疆问题专家佛利西斯在会上提出,新疆需要民族间的理解和和 解,新疆民族问题解决不能全依赖政治方案。
说流利汉语和维吾尔语的佛利西斯博士说,即使从政治角度寻求解决新疆问题,也要面对当地的人口的现实情况。不同民族的人是否对解决 方案做好了准备?新疆的不同民族是否彼此有足够的了解,他们能在一起生活吗?
他认为新疆不同民族之间缺乏了解,彼此之间的歧见很深,当务之急是促进民族间的沟通。汉族和维族对新疆问题的不同理解,犹如两个平 行世界,彼此不愿意相互倾听。他举例说,汉族人称新疆为西域,自古以来属于中国,而维吾尔人则认为新疆是自己的祖居地。
多年前中国作家王力雄在《我的西域,你的东土》也表达过类似的担忧。但马西莫夫说,中共当局对维吾尔人 提出的对话建议置之不理,中共只是汉族利益的代表,他们是新疆问题的始作俑者,要承担主要的责任。

独立困境

在原则上,马西莫夫认为新疆自决的前途是民主选举产生政府,由当地人投票决定,新政府包容不同的民族。他认为加拿大联邦模式值得借 鉴。但是佛利西斯博士认为,加拿大模式很复杂,还牵扯到所谓“第一民族”的问题,即被欧洲殖民者边缘化的北美原著民问题。
中国民间学者杨子利是回族,他在接受采访时说,无论从民族角度还是人道主义角度,他都认为当局不应该打 压维吾尔人的民族信仰。但是他并不赞同海外维吾尔社区领袖表达的独立立场。
杨子利认为,维吾尔人在其聚居集中地区独立,经济上并不可行。而且独立的政治单位如果包括汉人口集中的乌鲁木齐等大城市,又如何解 决汉族移民?即便说汉族大批移民新疆是错误的,难道新的维吾尔人国家要驱赶他们吗?
如果在共产党统治下在新疆建立了民主自由的新政治单位,崇尚人权高于主权的原则,杨子利说,那么维吾尔人独立,或继续留在一个民主 中华的联邦当中并没有什么区别。不过令杨子利感到担忧的是,海外维吾尔社区领袖的言论并没有体现人权高于主权的观点。

What I Learned as a Porn Tagger

A lot of laws, like mandatory condoms, may have unexpected side effects
By Sept. 18, 2013
woman working on a laptop
Getty Images

I got the job from a friend who couldn’t handle the sight of so many naked women. “I thought,” she said, “that my lady parts were unique and special.” She looked out the window and sighed a little. “They are not.”
The job was to watch porn. The office was a Bay Area dotcom, circa 2008. My assignment was to tag each actor in these videos by attributes (hair color, breast size) and tag each sex act. That way, a subscriber could easily search our database and filter out everything but, say, group sex featuring brunettes.
Then I would identify the actors by name, so that they could be sorted into a searchable database that would show our compliance with what are known as “2257 reporting requirements,” a part of the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act, to ensure that no performers in these clips were under the age of 18.
Sometimes identifying the actors was easy. They would say their names at the beginning of a video (“Hi, I’m Tammy Jenkins, this is Mark Jones, and you’re watching A Simple Tale of Butts VIII!”). Sometimes I would find myself staring into a writhing spaghetti pile of women, all more or less the same hue of tan, the same shade of blondness and the same shape of bosom, and I would try to pretend that I was plucky and I could do this: I was Nancy Drew in The Case of the Indeterminate Orgy. Other times, I was confronted with complete enigmas, like the performer who was nothing but a penis poking out of a pink bunny suit. When that occurred, I would call over my supervisor, a somewhat bitter man who had been doing this so long that he could identify most of the 20 or so men who worked regularly in straight porn by crotch shot alone.


This was bargain-basement porn, sex carried out by people who were doing two shoots a day, four or five days a week, often on what appeared to be the same sofa, which remained a mute witness to their exertions, stabbed with gold high heels, but never punctured. None of the performers were paid much — between $150 and $300 a shoot. I knew this because I had access to their contracts.
My career as a porn tagger didn’t last long. I was slow, because I had secretly begun listening to radio documentaries instead of the porn audio. Also, my supervisor criticized me for cataloging performers as having real boobs when to him they were clearly fake. I was embarrassed: to me they had jiggled plausibly. When the job ended, I was relieved.
I’ve been thinking of that job again amid reports that several porn actors — first two, then three, with rumors of a possible fourth — have tested positive for HIV. The news has heightened an ongoing debate over whether porn actors should be, or even could be, forced to use condoms. A law that would mandate condom use in any pornographic film made in the state of California, AB-640, died last week in the state senate. But L.A. County successfully passed a similar law, Measure B, last November.
Pornography is work that deserves to be safe. Like nursing, boxing and other bodily-fluid-intensive jobs, that safety is going to be complicated. What I do know from my brief time in the industry is that a lot of the laws that get proposed to make porn safer have unexpected side effects — some of which are just as bad as the original problem.
Take condom use. Condoms are already the standard in one fairly substantial sector of the porn industry: gay porn. But the last time a porn actor tested positive for HIV, in 2010, he told the Los Angeles Times he believed he had caught the virus on a gay porn shoot where condoms were used. Porn sex can go on for an hour at a time, and everything is more transmissible, even with protection. In gay porn, condoms are common but testing is rare. By contrast, actors working in straight porn get tested for HIV and other STDs every few weeks, as part of voluntary industry standards. If condom use were mandatory, such standards could fall by the wayside.
Or consider the elaborate databases people like me helped to create in order to protect against underage pornography. The Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act reporting requirements seem to have done a good job of keeping people under 18 out of the porn industry, but they have done so by compromising the personal information of every person over the age of 18 who has ever worked in porn, or erotic modeling, no matter how briefly. Even as a contract worker with no background check, I had access to the addresses, Social Security numbers, real names and unflattering ID photos of every porn actor or actress that I identified. I could have used their information to commit credit-card fraud.
It’s always easy — and it plays well on camera — to call for a simple new law. But the creation of low-cost health clinics with staff members who are trained to work with sex performers would probably do much more to protect people’s safety and privacy. That’s harder than just passing legislation, but we’re far more likely to help porn performers if we treat them less as victims in need of protection and more as workers with a stake — and an interest — in their own safety.

British protesters descend on Najib in London over failed investment


October 30, 2013

Prime
          Minister Najib Razak addresses the World Islamic Economic
          Forum in London yesterday. - Reuters pic, October 30, 2013.Prime Minister Najib Razak addresses the World Islamic Economic Forum in London yesterday. - Reuters pic, October 30, 2013.A group calling itself British Victims of Investing in Malaysia (BVIM) yesterday protested outside a convention centre in London where Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was attending a business conference.
The group, made up of 60 families, came to voice their disappointment in the investigations of a fraud case in Malaysia.
Comprised of bus drivers, small business owners and city workers, they protested for 4 hours - from 5pm and 9pm - at the Excel International Convention Centre, the venue of the World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF), of which Najib is the patron.
They lamented lack of action by Malaysian authorities against Doxport Technologies Sdn Bhd, which they said embezzled £2.5m (RM12.7 million) from the investors in 2008.
In 2011, the disgruntled investors lodged complaints with the Bukit Aman police headquarters, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission and the Companies Commission of Malaysia.
Doxport Technologies chairman and director was Datuk Seri Abdul Azim Mohd Zabidi, who was once the Umno treasurer. The managing director was Sivalingam Thechinamoorthy while Gurmeet Kaur was listed as a director.
The protesters said they were under the impression that Malaysia had "secure and accountable business system', and as such, had expected to profit from their investment. Their money was invested into purchasing Telekom switches and equity in Doxport.
They said the police report in 2011 was lodged after discovering that there were no such Telekom switches operating in Malaysia.
Earlier this year, the group filed a lawsuit against Azim and the company.
Azim was chairman of Bank Simpanan Nasional from 1999 to 2009, and vice-president of the World Savings Bank Institute from 2006 to 2009. He was also the director of Kuala Dimensi Sdn Bhd, the company at the centre of the scandal-ridden Port Klang Free Zone (PKFZ) project.
BVIM also issued a statement, questioning Malaysia's "rule of law" in protecting foreign investors.
“It is ridiculous that after more than two years since we lodged a criminal case in Malaysia, that no charges have been made or people arrested. I will tell all my friends, colleagues and the people I meet never to invest in Malaysia,” said Steve, a bank worker from London.
Another investor known as Mohammed said he had spent his life savings on the failed investment.
“I invested my life savings because I liked Malaysia, my family is really suffering and it seems the law means nothing in Malaysia. I hope no one invests in Malaysia and suffers like us," Mohammed, a bus driver from London, said.
On their website, the group pointed out that it had already met Najib along with former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir and other Malaysian politicians and dignitaries over the last 3 years to highlight their case.
They said investors, accompanied by British House of Lords member Nazir Ahmed, visited Malaysia to meet Najib to get an assurance that they would be given justice.
"PM Najib promised that this would be the case. In addition, when PM Najib visited the City of London to promote Malaysia as a place for inward investment, several investors met him and were assured that any police investigation would be fair," the website said.
The group, backed by 15 British MPs, also voiced their concern about the "safety" of British investments in Malaysia. - October 30, 2013.


Claiming duped by ex-Umno treasurer, British investors storm London in protest


October 30, 2013

A group of British investors attempted to bring their grievances to Prime Minister Najib Razak today. Pictured is a screenshot of the group's website at www.britishvictimsofinvestinginmalaysia.org.ukA group of British investors attempted to bring their grievances to Prime Minister Najib Razak today. Pictured is a screenshot of the group's website at www.britishvictimsofinvestinginmalaysia.org.ukKUALA LUMPUR, Oct 30 — A group of British investors who suffered heavy losses in a Malaysian telecommunications scheme braved the St Jude storm in London yesterday to highlight their case to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak who was in the UK capital for the 9th World Islamic Economic Forum.

The British investors — comprising bus drivers, small business owners and city workers —  accused Malaysian authorities of dragging their feet about pressing fraud charges against former Umno treasurer Datuk Seri Azim Mohd Zabidi.

“The BVIM (British Victims of Investing in Malaysia) stated at the protest their disappointment at the length of time it is taking for justice to be done in Malaysia with the criminal fraud case they have launched already in its second year of investigation!” BVIM said in a statement today.

“With no results for over two years coming from the Malaysian AG (Attorney-General) and Public Prosecutor, the BVIM asked: If there is any rule of law in Malaysia for foreign investors? If British investment in Malaysia is safe?” they added.

Sixty British investors sued Azim and his IT company, Doxport Technologies Sdn Bhd, last February for allegedly misappropriating US$4 million (RM12.6 million) in 2009.

The suit was filed at the Kuala Lumpur High Court against Azim, Doxport Technologies, director and CEO Sivalingam Thechinamoorthy, and accounts department staff Gurmeet Kaur.

The 60 British investors had invested about US$4 million (RM12.59 million) purchasing Telekom switches and equity in Doxport Technologies in January 2009, when Azim was the Umno treasurer then, according to their lawyers.

The investors subsequently lodged a police report in 2011 after realising that no such Telekom switches were operating in Malaysia.

Their lawyer, Hasnal Rezua Merican, said last February that the police have already sent investigation papers to the Attorney-General’s Chambers after investigating the case for 14 months.
China Thinks Halo Master Chief And Iron Man Have Joined The US Military 


"So, it's safe to say there will be no Iron Man/Halo/Master Chief suit storming China's shores beneath the Stars and Stripes any time in the near future.
"
Halo

via CCTV

Top right says "U.S. Military Concept Armor"

Earth to China: Master Chief didn't enlist in the US military.

Nor is the U.S. military remotely close to fielding such a suit.

Nonetheless, Chinese media has trolled its netizens over the possibility that Washington is ready to unleash an army of robotically suped-up super soldiers.

"The program was New Defence Observations, a military show (read: propaganda), on Channel 7," writes Brian Ashcroft of Kotaku. "On the October 19 episode, which is recently causing a stir in China, a segment talked about the "smart amour."

The CCTV episode of New Defense Observations on Oct. 19, hosted by a well respected, educated military officer, first showed an image from the latest Iron Man movie. Ashcroft notes that the text on the screen clearly says "movie image."


Iron
      Man

Ashcroft points out the "Movie Image" caption.

But then, the host goes on to show an image of cosplayers in Halo get-ups, with the caption "U.S. Military Concept Armor."

Ashcroft notes that the netizens were not fooled.

From Kotaku:

One Sina Weibo user wrote, "Master Chief! How did you end up on CCTV? And you also joined the US Army..." Another added, "Watching CCTV doesn't seem to enhance my IQ."


On the other hand, the entire episode is done with an above the shoulder graphic of real concept images of the Army's TALOS — Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit — which hopes to build an "Iron Man"-like suit.

"It's advanced armour. It's communications, antennas. It's cognitive performance. It's sensors, miniature-type circuits. That's all going to fit in here, too," said Lt Col Karl Borjes, a science adviser at the US Army's research, development and engineering command, told the BBC recently. "It's exactly like Iron Man."

The resulting headlines from the Iron Man quotes obviously got China in a stir.

The (emphasis on) concept suit would combine much of the recent testing on battlefield networking (kind of like a Google glass heads up display for trigger pullers), on load-bearing hydraulic robotics, camo, and advanced helmets with heads up displays.

The aim, the BBC reports, is to field these suits in "3 years," though in reality, the Army has been testing and shopping these types of technologies for the past 20.


So, it's safe to say there will be no Iron Man/Halo/Master Chief suit storming China's shores beneath the Stars and Stripes any time in the near future.
中国二代 “坏账银行”将问世



(中国真的需要169家汽车生产企业?)



中国政府正在批准成立第二批“坏账银行”,并且这次是在省级层面。目前中国正在缓慢推进金融去监管化。

这一次成立坏账银行,旨在防范逐步放松利率管制过程中可能出现的任何不良副作用。一个副作用是资金成本可能上升,这将给目前资金紧绌的中国企 业带来压力。另外,以前无需担心资产负债管理的中资银行今后也有可能出现问题。

还有一个目的是应对中国在全球金融 危机后实施刺激计划所产生的新一轮坏账。

这项规模在1.1万亿元人民币到4万亿元之间(视计算方式而定)的刺激计划导致水 泥、钢铁等行业出现产能过剩,催生了许多可行性堪疑的基础设施项,促使许多城镇建设了大量未来有一天可 能需要、但现在还消化不了的公寓楼

面对坏账将不断增加的前景,中国采取的还是老办法——将债务“社会化”,也就是创建一批新的资产管理公司,专门接收银行的问题贷款,在这个过 程中,购买问题贷款的价格不透明,所使用资金的最终来源也不明朗。

常用的方法并不涉及实际资金转移,而是将资产从一家国有实体的资产负债表上转移到 另一家国有实体。像这样的资产转移手段,还有其他金融戏法,中国还能玩多久,仍然有待观察

失之草率的债务处理方法

在中国,不论是贷款方还是政府,通常都以一种草率的方式来处理债务。但随着中国金融市场日益与世界其他地区融合,资本管制缓慢解除,人民币争 夺储备货币地位(北京方面的意愿),这种态度必须改变。

虽然贷款在中国不再带有政治色彩,但坏账处置始终极具政治性。人们希望,最新一轮问题贷款能够以更加商业化的方法处置。

正在创办的第一家资产管理公司位于中国东部沿海省份江苏省,离上海不远。江苏受到的冲击尤其严重,因为深陷困境的造船业和光伏产业有很多公司 都位于江苏。比如说,几个月之前,中国数家大型国有银行的地方分行就宣布江苏尚德(Suntech)违约,尚德一度是中国最大的太阳能企业。 债权人希望新成立的资产管理公司能够提供资金支持,维持尚德在江苏无锡主要工厂的就业岗位。

批准在省一级创建坏账银行也是中央和地方持续调整金融关系的一部分。中央政府一直在寻求降低地方政府对大银行地方分行的影响。一家在中国颇有 关系的本土投资公司的负责人说:“但现在中央政府也深知,一旦出现问题债务,就需要地方政府来执行地方法院的判决。”

延长期限、走走形式

十年前,中国四大国有银行准备上市,中国为此成立了四家资产管理公司,即坏账银 行,用于接收四大行资产负债表中的不良贷款。这些资产管理公司的资金由财政部发债筹集,并可能已 以中国方式(修改条款、延长期限和做做样子)如数偿还,当然也可能没有还完。

成立这些机构的初衷是清理坏账,然后就让它们退出舞台,然而,这些机构却有了自己的生命,逐渐发展成羽翼丰满的金融公司。为接收中国建设银行(CCB)坏账而成立的信达资产管理公司(Cinda)现在正准备上市(很可 能在11月),接收中国工商银行(ICBC)坏账的华融资产管理公司(Huarong)也将于明年上市。

信达等机构的外国投资者表示,第一代资产管理公司基本上已经对不良贷款游戏不再感兴趣。这个过程政治性太强,也太困难。

与此同时,外国投资公司正在准备竞标这类资产。他们认为,房地产贷款的危险性,远低于流向产能 过剩行业(水泥、钢铁、太阳能、海运)以及还没有深度整合的行业(中国真的需要169家汽车生产企业?)的 贷款。但到底是有关系者还是值得扶持者会得到资助,还有待于观察。
「五眼联盟」 - 欧美互有监听
 
"欧洲政 策制定者和国会议员常对自己国家情报工作项目缺乏完整瞭 解他们甚至不熟悉情报工作如何 运作。"



美国国安局局长亚歷山大(左)和国家情报总监克拉珀(右),週二在眾议院情报委员会上,为监控外国情报辩护。现场有示威者举牌反对美国监控计
          划。
美国国安局局 长亚歷山大(左)和国家情报总监克拉珀(右),週二在眾议院情报委员会上,为监控外国情报辩护。现场有示威者举牌反对美国监控计划。
美国情报巨头週三在国会眾议院情报委员会联袂作证,为情报工作辩护,並指称欧洲国家也进行监 听。而在许多案例上,是欧洲情报机构取得通联纪录,再与美国分享。

连日来,欧洲媒体披露美国国家安全局(NSA)监听欧洲公民的电话。

法国和西班牙媒体先后指出,从2012年12月至2013年1月,NSA对法国公民的7030万个电话通话进行了监控,西班牙境內亦有逾 6000万次电话通话遭监控。

NSA局长亚歷山大作证时,强烈否认该局收集数以千万计的欧洲公民电话记录,指有关报导「完全不实」。

亚歷山大强调,2001年911恐怖袭击后,美国没有再发生重大恐袭事件,这绝非偶然, 也不是靠运气,恐怖份子不会停止憎恨美国,也不会停止行动。他又强调,该局的情报活动严格受法律限制。

他还声称,「真实情况是不止美国收集信息,美国的北约盟友也收集情报信息,並与NSA 『分享』,这是北约保护成员国安全及开展军事行动计划的一部分」。

可阻911恐袭重演

亚歷山大虽承认美国情报活动需提高透明度,但仍极力为情报行动的合法性和必要性辩护。

国家情报总监克拉珀亦扬言,情报活动保证美国免于再次遭受类似911的恐袭;此外,除了情报活动需要,美国並不监控任何国家的无辜平民。

克拉珀指出,刺探外国领导人是情报行动的基本信条, 欧洲国家也同样监听美国政府。

他解释说,欧洲政策制定者和国会议员,常 对自己国家情报工作项目缺乏完整瞭解他 们甚至不熟悉情报工作如何运作

眾议院当天召开听证会,主旨原定討论1978年通过的《外国情报监听法》。

这一项法案模糊,允许情报机构监听参与间谍或恐怖活动的海外人士,民主、共和两党议员有意禁止大规模侦蒐资料,不过国会未有修法共识。

眾院司法委员会民主党首席议员科尼尔斯发表声明指出,国安局虽提出多起个案,但未能显示巨量手机监听有助反恐,修法能抑止美国国內过度监听。

共和党籍的情报委员会主席罗杰斯则表示,蒐集外国情报对保护美国人和盟邦至为重要,因为这將使他们不致遭受恐怖袭击。

澳洲助美国监控亚太

美国监控风波席捲欧洲,並逐渐扩散到其他地方。据澳洲媒体报导,美国与澳洲合作监控亚太地区,且美国也在亚太各国大使馆与领事馆中设点监控, 包括马来西亚首都吉隆坡。

德国《明镜》週刊早前引述流亡俄罗斯、美国国家安全局(NSA)承包商前僱员斯诺登公佈机密文件报导,美国情报机关在驻外使领馆內,设立电子 通讯监听设施。同时,「五眼联盟」也协助美国监控全球

最新披露的是一张写有日期是2010年8月13日的地图,上面標示美国一个名叫「特殊搜集服务小组」(SCS)的情报部门,在全世界设有80 多个监听点,遍佈亚洲、欧洲、非洲和拉美。

而据澳洲国家广播公司(ABC)週三报导,资深情资 专家包尔说,澳洲情报单位会与美国NSA分享情资,且透过在地的监听点,替美国监控亚太 地区。

包尔表示:「如果没有深入我们周边若干邻国的高层通讯,根本不可能打进资讯圈中,打场成功的资讯战。」

根据包尔说法,澳洲有4个关键设施,隶属美国NSA爭议性XKeyscore电脑系统方 案,可搜寻並分析大量网络资讯。

他也表示,安全是澳洲情资机构的关注焦点。「最优先的应该是恐怖分子相关通讯內容。」

吉隆坡也设点

报导指出,斯诺登公佈的机密地图中,显示美国在亚太地区多处大使馆与领事馆设点监控,地点包括吉隆坡、雅加达、金边、曼谷、仰光、马尼拉、香 港、台北、上海和北京。

文件显示,这批监听站是由美国中央情报局(CIA)和NSA,联合掌控的特別搜集服务组负责,一般隱藏在美国驻外使领馆內,情报人员有外交身 份作掩护。

澳洲本身与美国、英国、纽西兰和加拿大组成所谓「五眼联盟」,也就 是这5国互不收集情资。包尔认为5国之间的协议目前尚未被破坏。
温州楼市 无人接盘 法院进驻淘宝拍卖房产名车

Someone once scolded me for NOT understanding China in depth and spreading an impending China property crisis talk. He told me Chinese buy houses as if they are gold rings and just keep them aside for future price appreciation and most important of all, he told me is that Chinese buy property with cash. (not like Americans and Malaysians borrowing $$$$$ from banks) I did not give a fuck about buy and keep theory but I was really amazed with his buy with cash theory. Later I found out that many of the Chinese cash is actually borrowings from underground bankers.


温州,中国楼市曾经的投资风向标,房价曾经最为坚挺,并一度接近上海、北京、深圳等一线城市。但在最近全国70 多个大中城市普涨的情况下,温州却连续25个月单边下滑,成为唯一下跌的“孤城”。

什么因素导致温州楼市“冰与火”瞬间切换的市场境界?温州楼市还具备中国楼市走势的风向标意义吗?温州楼市断供这一现象是否将在全国蔓延?近 日,中国证券报记者再赴温州进行实地调查。

法院进驻淘宝变“掌柜”

最近,温州鹿城区法院将司法拍卖搬上了淘宝网,做起“掌柜”,专拍卖房产和名车。

29日上午9时许,温州鹿城区人民法院资产处置拍卖正在淘宝进行,一处标的为“温州鹿城区九州大厦1幢415室”的房产,还有50分钟就结束 拍卖,市场评估价为144.3万元,起拍价为95万元,上午9时已经有12人报名,加价幅度1万元,竞价周期1天,延时周期5分钟/次,拍卖 竞价前淘宝系统将冻结竞买人支付宝账户内的资金作为应缴的保证金,拍卖结束后未能竞得者冻结的保证金自动解冻,冻结期间不计利息。最终出价 26次,最后成交价为124万元。

和该房产同时拍卖的还有20起,即将拍卖的有39起,温州鹿城区法院已经结束的拍卖157起,72起因“零出价”而流拍。

“法院的服务比一般的房产中介还专业,但因为是法院拍卖,房产被法院查封,部分视频中的房屋内一片狼藉。”温州当地一中介人员称。

鹿城区法院提醒,标的物转让登记手续由买受人自行办理,所涉及的一切税、费及其可能存在的物业费、水、电等欠费均由买受人承担。

不仅温州鹿城区人民法院在淘宝进行司法拍卖,温州市中级人民法院以及温州辖区内其他区县的法院也在网上进行司法拍卖。

中国证券报记者发现,已成交的记录中,拍卖最激烈的房产是锦玉园4幢2003室,该房产为绿城集团开发,421平方米,也是“二进宫”拍卖, 市场评估价2240.5万元,起拍价为1523万元,报名人数4名,但围观人数达1359人,保证金150万元。累计出价206次,被竞买号 为“R2057”的买家以1886万元成交,折合单价为4.48万元/平方米。

“这房产的价格和最高峰时相比,缩水一半。”当地中介人员称,拍卖成交价比市场稍低一些。

2006年末,绿城集团以33亿元一举摘取温州天盛地块,在瓯江畔开始了“世界级都市综合体”的造梦之旅。2010年,绿城鹿城广场锦玉园一 期价格从2008年首次开盘时的4.38万元/平方米一路攀升到7万至10万元/平方米,将温州房价推向高潮。

这种拍卖的方式还是吸引了部分刚性需求。温州当地开发商说,司法拍卖房给刚需购房者增加了一个新的购房途径,即使会遇到问题,也有司法途径给 自己维权。“网上司法拍卖与传统拍卖行拍卖相比,拥有操作简单、零佣金等优势,且拍卖房还不存在限购的问题。”

“司法拍卖房源相对市场价格还是有不少折价优势的。”据温州鹿城区法院介绍,拍卖房的评估是以市场价为基准,但所取的是相对保守的市场价格区 间内的下限。不仅如此,司法拍卖还存在司法处置价,即在评估价的基础上有降价的幅度。

此外,一次、二次流拍后,起拍价都还有20%以内的降价空间。这也是很多有经验的竞拍者在第一次拍卖时会选择观望,到第二次、第三次拍卖才会 出手。

温州楼市或继续下跌

25日,中国证券报记者到绿城广场的锦玉园楼盘现场探访,除了零星开业的咖啡馆和名品店外,一楼很多商铺尚未租出。锦玉园对面就是瓯江,江面 的冷风吹来,绿城广场伫立的几座大楼显得格外荒凉。

中国证券报记者在几家房产中介了解到,2012年年初以来,温州房价就开始下跌,其中绿城的锦玉园跌幅最大,目前超过50%。21世纪不动产 的经纪人告诉中国证券报记者,现在绿城锦玉园中面积超过400平方米的房产,售价在4.5万元/平方米,145平方米左右的房产,价格大约 4.2万元/平方米,因业主需要现金,如有意购买价格还可以面谈。

不仅绿城集团,温州最大的房地产商中梁置业,其开发的众多项目如中央公馆、首府、棕榈湾、橡树湾、香缇锦园、国宾1号等也出现不同程度的降 价。

中国证券报记者采访发现,临近年底,开发商降价意愿明显上升。随着库存压力持续增大,降价的可能性逐步增大,尤其是一些面临资金回笼压力的中 小开发商,部分楼盘已经扛起了降价大旗。前几年房价表现并不逊于温州市区的永嘉、瓯北等地,如今新开盘的楼盘单价也已跌破万元。

继去年温州泰宇花苑楼盘老板跑路之后,今年下半年温州平阳县再现“烂尾楼”事件。一个名为“海林轩”的项目因开发商欠下巨额债务、资金链断裂 等问题,导致项目进展缓慢。其中一期原定于2009年12月31日前交付,被曝已经烂尾三年,而该项目的二期、三期进展基本停滞。

N.S.A. Promises to Stop Getting Caught Spying on Allies



WASHINGTON(The Borowitz Report) — Responding to the firestorm of controversy over its spying on European allies, the head of the National Security Agency said today it would do everything in its power to avoid being caught doing it in the future.
“There are two important jobs for every spy agency: spying on people and avoiding detection,” said the N.S.A. chief General Keith Alexander. “Unfortunately, at the N.S.A. we have only done the first job well.”
“We have abused the trust of some of our closest allies,” he said. “And none of this would have happened if they hadn’t found out.”
General Alexander said that the agency was instituting strict new practices that amounted to “a zero-tolerance policy on getting caught.”
“I had a meeting with my top people today and said, ‘I want you to put the same energy you put into spying on Germany, France, and Spain into keeping them from figuring out what we’re up to,’ ” he said. “ ‘Anything less than that will be unacceptable.’ ”
General Alexander also offered a heartfelt apology to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a prime target of the agency’s eavesdropping. “I know how upsetting it must be for you to know that your closest ally has been listening in on your phone conversations for the past eleven years,” he said. “I give you my solemn promise that in the future you won’t know.”
Paul Krugman Annihilates Everyone Else Who Says We're On The Verge Of A Debt Crisis


Once again, Paul Krugman is teeing off on the Very Serious People who keep running around claiming that the US is on the verge of a major debt crisis, and that we're doomed if we don't cut entitlement spending NOW.

This is pretty familiar territory for Krugman, who goes after this crowd all the time and in his columns, but it's still enjoyable to watch.

This week Krugman includes in his target list hedge funder Stanley Druckenmiller, who has been going around to college campuses warning of "Generational Theft" and how young people will get screwed by the old people on Social Security.

A couple paragraphs really stand out:

 Once upon a time, walking around shouting “The end is nigh” got you labelled a kook, someone not to be taken seriously. These days, however, all the best people go around warning of looming disaster. In fact, you more or less have to subscribe to fantasies of fiscal apocalypse to be considered respectable.

This is so spot on. Being extremely worried about the future is the mark of respectability these days, even though these "end is nigh" calls have been terrible. Everything people have said about how debt and money printing would lead to spiking interest rates and a collapsing dollar have been 100% wrong. It doesn't matter. If you don't believe in some major looming crisis, you're seen as having your head in the sand, and being unrealistic.

It's a strange time for that reason.

Krugman ends with some great advice:

So the next time you see some serious-looking man in a suit declaring that we’re teetering on the precipice of fiscal doom, don’t be afraid. He and his friends have been wrong about everything so far, and they literally have no idea what they’re talking about.


Addicted to the Apocalypse
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: October 24, 2013 785 Comments


Once upon a time, walking around shouting “The end is nigh” got you labeled a kook, someone not to be taken seriously. These days, however, all the best people go around warning of looming disaster. In fact, you more or less have to subscribe to fantasies of fiscal apocalypse to be considered respectable.


Blog: The Conscience of a Liberal


And I do mean fantasies. Washington has spent the past three-plus years in terror of a debt crisis that keeps not happening, and, in fact, can’t happen to a country like the United States, which has its own currency and borrows in that currency. Yet the scaremongers can’t bring themselves to let go.

Consider, for example, Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire investor, who has lately made a splash with warnings about the burden of our entitlement programs. (Gee, why hasn’t anyone else thought of making that point?) He could talk about the problems we may face a decade or two down the road. But, no. He seems to feel that he must warn about the looming threat of a financial crisis worse than 2008.

Or consider the deficit-scold organization Fix the Debt, led by the omnipresent Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles. It was, I suppose, predictable that Fix the Debt would respond to the latest budget deal with a press release trying to shift the focus to its favorite subject. But the organization wasn’t content with declaring that America’s long-run budget issues remain unresolved, which is true. It had to warn that “continuing to delay confronting our debt is letting a fire burn that could get out of control at any moment.”

As I’ve already suggested, there are two remarkable things about this kind of doomsaying. One is that the doomsayers haven’t rethought their premises despite being wrong again and again — perhaps because the news media continue to treat them with immense respect. The other is that as far as I can tell nobody, and I mean nobody, in the looming-apocalypse camp has tried to explain exactly how the predicted disaster would actually work.

On the Chicken Little aspect: It’s actually awesome, in a way, to realize how long cries of looming disaster have filled our airwaves and op-ed pages. For example, I just reread an op-ed article by Alan Greenspan in The Wall Street Journal, warning that our budget deficit will lead to soaring inflation and interest rates. What about the reality of low inflation and low rates? That, he declares in the article, is “regrettable, because it is fostering a sense of complacency.”

It’s curious how readily people who normally revere the wisdom of markets declare the markets all wrong when they fail to panic the way they’re supposed to. But the really striking thing at this point is the date: Mr. Greenspan’s article was published in June 2010, almost three and a half years ago — and both inflation and interest rates remain low.

So has the ex-Maestro reconsidered his views after having been so wrong for so long? Not a bit. His new (and pretty bad) book declares that “the bias toward unconstrained deficit spending is our top domestic economic problem.”

Meanwhile, about that oft-prophesied, never-arriving debt crisis: In Senate testimony more than two and half years ago, Mr. Bowles warned that we were likely to face a fiscal crisis within around two years, and he urged his listeners to “just stop for a minute and think about what happens” if “our bankers in Asia” stop buying our debt. But has he, or anyone in his camp, actually tried to think through what would happen? No, not really. They just assume that it would cause soaring interest rates and economic collapse, when both theory and evidence suggest otherwise.

Don’t believe me? Look at Japan, a country that, like America, has its own currency and borrows in that currency, and has much higher debt relative to G.D.P. than we do. Since taking office, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has, in effect, engineered exactly the kind of loss of confidence the debt worriers fear — that is, he has persuaded investors that deflation is over and inflation lies ahead, which reduces the attractiveness of Japanese bonds. And the effects on the Japanese economy have been entirely positive! Interest rates are still low, because people expect the Bank of Japan (the equivalent of our Federal Reserve) to keep them low; the yen has fallen, which is a good thing, because it make Japanese exports more competitive. And Japanese economic growth has actually accelerated.

Why, then, should we fear a debt apocalypse here? Surely, you may think, someone in the debt-apocalypse community has offered a clear explanation. But nobody has.

So the next time you see some serious-looking man in a suit declaring that we’re teetering on the precipice of fiscal doom, don’t be afraid. He and his friends have been wrong about everything so far, and they literally have no idea what they’re talking about.
US Shale Oil Production Causes WTI Price to Fall

crude oil price will go down because of the American's new oil and also more and more oil is now found in all over the world. Will China single handedly hold price up with their demands is questionable as her economy is showing fatigue. So Bolehland's heavy dependence on oil revenue days is numbered. Will we ended up like other failing states by exporting workers for survival ?


With this, it also mean America can start telling the Arabs to go fuck themselves and they would not care a shit if the Israelis go hammer them next time.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels last week, the fifth largest build of the year, with stocks at the Cushing hub rising for the second week in a row. Over the past four weeks, inventories have risen by 22 million barrels, marking the biggest four-week build since April 2012 and the second largest since February 2009.

The crude oil stored at Cushing, the delivery point for the U.S. futures benchmark contract, amounted to 33.34 million barrels in the week that ended Oct. 18, an increase of 358,000 barrels. As noted in an article in the FT, certainly flows of shale oil have been surging from areas such as Bakken, North Dakota and Eagle Ford, Texas, where output has reached 1 million barrels a day.


As a result, prices have fallen to their lowest level since July. On Wednesday, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate dropped more than $2 to a low of $96.16 a barrel, before recovering slightly. The decline saw the price differential between WTI and global benchmark Brent increase to more than $13 – the widest since April – before narrowing. ICE Brent for December delivery was down $1.75, to $108.21 a barrel.

Is this the oil market following the natural gas market with a widening differential between domestic and global prices? It would be nice to think so, but no, oil either in crude form or as refined products is much more readily exported than natural gas. As such, US prices will move in tandem, if not at the same level, as global oil prices.

Inventory increase has caught the market by surprise

Analysts had expected a rise of roughly 2.9 million barrels, as planned maintenance at refiners reduced crude demand. The FT quoted the EIA as saying that refinery runs were 14 million barrels a day in the week ending Oct. 18. Plants had operated at 85.9% of capacity, compared to June and July, when runs were above 16 million barrels per day.


However, with maintenance schedules winding down and lower prices encouraging refiners to stock up to meet export demand, expect the differential between WTI and Brent to narrow. As Brent is constrained by reduced Libyan and Nigerian shipments, it seems more likely for WTI to rise than for Brent to fall. So make hay while the sun shines and for purchasing that is tied to spot WTI numbers consider taking current lower price levels as they are not expected to prevail for long.
世贸组织裁定中国限制
稀土出口违规

 

消息人士称,世界贸易组织(WTO)已裁定中国的稀土出口限制与该组织的规则不符,这是北京方面使用出口配额和关税作为产业政策工具的做法第 二次遭到成功挑战。

WTO尚未正式发布专家组的裁决,而且不愿置评。

这起诉讼是由日本、美国和欧洲提起的。中国和日本之间的紧张关系曾在2010年加剧,那一年发生的一些事情突显出中国在稀土矿物国际贸易上的 支配地位;稀土应用于高科技和军用装备领域。本案还适用于钨和钼。

这一裁决的消息昨日传出后,中国商务部有影响力的政策分析师梅新育对英国《金融时报》表示,中国很可能会提起上诉。“在我看来,中国完全有权 限制战略资源或者稀土这样造成严重污染的、能源密集型产品的出口。”

“稀土”是17种金属的统称。中国是世界上遥遥领先的最大稀土生产国,尽管3年前的高价促使澳大利亚、美国以及近期格陵兰启动稀土矿的开 发。


2010年之前,中国已连续数年逐渐减少稀土出口配额,以鼓励这些金属的加工尽量在国内完成。2010年下半年稀土出口配额骤减之际,适 逢一艘中国渔船在有争议水域与日本巡视船发生冲撞,结果造成一场稀土供应紧缺,大幅推高了价格。中国被指对日本实行禁运。


中国在上世纪90年代谈判加入WTO时,谈判焦点是解除中国针对进口产品的壁垒,以便让外国产品在中国市场上竞争。自那以来,中国曾提高或降 低出口税,并对多种产品实行出口配额制度,作为一种鼓励或抑制国内产能扩充的工具。这些措施意味着,某些产品在中国的价格远低于国际市场。

2011年,美国、欧洲和墨西哥在WTO对中国胜诉,那起案件是针对中国对多种工业原材料实行的出口配额,该案为挑战中国稀土出口政策设定了 一个先例。

中国坚称,出口配额对于抑制稀土开采和加工所造成的环境损害是必要的。但是,在限制出口的同时,中国却鼓励国内稀土加工产业扩张,这导致 WTO拒绝接受中国的主张。

与此同时,中国已将内蒙古和江西的两大稀土矿储备的控制权整合到少数几家国有企业手中,以减少不受监管的矿商所造成的环境损害。
中 国各大银行不良贷款增加




中国国有银行三季度利润增长数据可观,但贷款减损额显著增加和吸收亏损能力下降表明,中国金融体系承受的压力与日俱增。

全球市值最高的银行中国工商银行(ICBC)今年7至9月净利润由624亿元人民币增至672亿元,增幅7.6%,比预期低2个百分点。工行 的主要弱点是不良贷款增幅相对较高,三季度年化增速达到30%。

自从2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,中国各银行发放大量信贷支持经 济,贷款账簿规模5年内翻番。

这些贷款帮助中国经济取得了领先世界的增长率,但对于信贷质量和大规模违约可能性的担忧困扰着银行,压低了它们的股价。

按资产规模列中国第五大银行的交通银行(Bank of Communications)是不良贷款的最明显受害者。其三季度净利润为139亿元人民币,增幅仅为3.4%,对于近年经常实现两位数利润增长的中国 各银行而言,这一数字堪称意外疲弱。

交行的不良贷款率从年初的0.92%攀升至现在的1.01%。与此同时,其拨备覆盖率下降33个百分点至217.5%,抗击未来危机的能力减 弱。

对整个中国银行业而言,不良贷款率保持在1%左右 (my sources mostly put this at around 25%),没有印证有关资产质量将更快恶 化的预测。但一些分析师称,这在更大程度上反映中国各银行贷款增速仍然居高不下,并不代表贷款质量优良。

未来几周内,中国各银行面临的债务挑战将趋于明朗,因为中央政府将宣布对地方政府财政的审计结果。上一次大规模审计还是以2010年的数字为 基础,自那以来各方对城镇隐性债务的担忧不断加剧。

对中国一些银行而言,三季度的贷款减损额可能是它们在为未来的更坎坷道路做准备。

资产规模列中国第二的中国建设银行(CCB)三季度贷款减损支出为93亿元人民币,在同期内属于较高水平。但建行在第三季度的存款损失准备金 环比上升3.2%,似乎表明该行以减损支出为名购买违约保险。
外汇储备救 不了中国坏账



在研究一番中国的坏账问题有多严重之后,许多人仍会转过身来,指出该国庞大的外汇储备就是可靠的出路。

这种想法颇具诱惑力。如果特意以20世纪90年代末中国大银行20%的不良贷款率来粗略计算,目前的坏账总规模将达到21万亿元人民币。

如果使用更合理的计算方法,得出的数字可能约为上述的一半,即10万亿元人民币。这些数字非常之高——但等等,中国央行拥有3.4万亿美元 (合20万亿元人民币)的外汇资产。棒极了——那还有什么问题呢?

确实,中国曾在20世纪90年代末动用外汇储备,对银行实施资本重组,而后将银行坏账转移到专门建立的“坏账银行”中。

然而,出于多种原因,政府现在不可能仿效过去,大规模动用外汇储备。

首先,大规模花费外汇储备相当于中国央行大量印钞票。

中国人民银行(PBoC)持有的大多数外汇储备资产对应着中国各银行和其他金融机构的人民币债务。如果央行试图在不偿清这些债务的条件下花掉 美元,就意味着印钞票。

而如果中国希望通过印钞票来吸收坏账,并承担随之而来的风险,那么事实上此决定与外汇储备无关。

“花掉”外汇储备的另一个问题,在于这些储备被误认为是中国的资产,就像是通过与外界贸易而获得的留存利润。

自20世纪90年代以来,中国的经常账户盈余逐渐增加。其中,不少是出售商品和服务的所得,但也有一大部分是外国直接投资。

这部分盈余不是外国人交给中国、从此不管不问的钱。重点在于,净外国直接投资总额代表中国的对外负债。


最后一点是中国严格的资本管制的影响,以及管制可能如何为中国带来一种新的外债——即在华经营外国公司的留存利润。

西方公司设在全球各地的分支机构都会报告分红方案,但正如西班牙对外银行(BBVA)首席新兴市场经济学家阿莉西亚•加西亚-埃雷罗 (Alicia Garcia-Herrero)所指出的那样,报告分红方案不代表总部实际上能得到分红,尤其是来自中国的分红。

笔者未发现对留存利润规模的准确估计。但为了对问题有个大致了解,让我们想想苹果公司(Apple)。它仍有500亿美元的现金留在美国国 外,因为它不愿将利润转移回国内,否则就要缴纳相应的税款。不过,这笔钱中可能有一部分留在了中国等国家。问题是金额有多少?

除美国之外,中国是唯一一个去年对苹果净销售额的贡献率超过10%的国家。苹果去年在华销售额为228亿美元,高于两年前的28亿美元。整个 苹果公司的毛利润率为44%,但监管文件没有披露它在中国的盈利情况。

苹果将一部分利润重新投资,在中国积累所谓的“长期资产”。苹果在中国的长期资产去年增加两倍,达到73亿美元,超过它在美国持有的长期资 产。

苹果可能会把在内地赚到的利润更多地转移到香港,从而逃避资本管制。我们很有兴趣知道,苹果在香港和内地的利润会如何分配,以及将从内地流出 多少资金。

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Japan  Breaking Free of Its Pacifist Past

Japan's allies offer encouragement, while regional neighbors grow nervous

005.JPG
Hajime Kimura for TIME A Self-Defense Forces pilot during alert training at the Naha Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, on Sept. 10, 2013

U.S. Marine tilt-rotor aircraft swooped in during a joint training exercise at this military training range in southwestern Japan last week, dropping off Japanese ground troops and peeling away. The soldiers raced to nearby positions, cutting off an opposing force threatening Marines nearby.
As military maneuvers go, it was fairly basic. But had it been a real-world mission, it might also have been illegal.
Under the current interpretation of Japan’s pacifist constitution, Japan’s armed forces are not permitted to fight on behalf of friends or allies unless the Japanese themselves come under direct attack.
It is a policy that conservative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to change. An advisory panel is expected to issue a report by year’s end recommending that Abe issue a new interpretation of the 66-year-old constitution. A new policy is expected, which will permit Japanese troops to come to the aid of not only Americans and other allies, but international peacekeepers and civilian refugees as well.
“Some people fear that if the interpretation is changed, Japan will be able to wage war on the other side of the world, but that’s not what this is about,” says Yuichi Hosoya, a law professor at Keio University and a member of Abe’s Advisory Panel on Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security.
(MORE: Return of the Samurai: Japan’s Leadership Seeks to Recapture the Country’s Former Glory)
“The purpose is to enable Japan to help defend members of other countries, be they peacekeepers or civilians. It is about engaging in joint, collective self-defense,” Hosoya says.
At present, about 350 Japanese troops — mostly engineers — are part of a U.N. peacekeeping force in South Sudan. Japanese warships and patrol planes have been taking part in multinational antipiracy missions off the coast of Somalia since 2009.
Japan has wrestled with constitutional limits on its troops for decades. Prior to the 1990s, Japan refused to participate in international peacekeeping operations or other missions that might draw Japanese troops into a fight. Though formidable, Japan’s armed forces are organized, trained and equipped largely for defensive operations.
Nonetheless, China’s rising military strength and assertiveness, and increasing calls for Japan — still one of world’s richest countries — to participate in international peace and security operations has forced a new look at how and when its forces might be allowed to fight.
Under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, American forces are obligated to defend Japan against attack. But Japan’s responsibilities for protecting Americans are less clearly defined. Abe says he wants to tighten security relations with Washington, and argues that failure to help defend American forces when necessary could jeopardize the alliance.
“Imagine a situation where a U.S. warship protecting waters around Japan comes under a missile attack when our Aegis ship is nearby,” Abe told reporters in July. “If we don’t shoot [hostile missiles] down despite our capability [to do so], the American ship will sink and many young lives will be lost. Can we maintain the alliance under such a circumstance?”
Americans have been quietly urging Japan to drop the ban on collective self-defense. Australia’s new Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, said last week that her government welcomes “the direction that the Abe government has taken in terms of having a more normal defense posture and being able to take a constructive role in regional and global security.”
But not everyone thinks that’s a good idea.
(MORE: Why Japan’s Biggest Defense-Spend Hike in Over Two Decades Isn’t Going to Buy Much)
China has denounced the debate over collective self-defense as evidence of rising Japanese militarism. Officials in South Korea, another U.S. ally, have expressed reservations about the change in policy as well.
Even in Japan, where support for the self-defense force has grown dramatically since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, 59% of respondents in a recent Asahi newspaper poll said they opposed any change in the policy.
Abe had been expected to push for revisions during a special session of the Diet that began last week, but has delayed action until the advisory panel issues its report.
For troops training at the Aibano range last week, the policy debate seemed somewhat moot.
About 80 U.S. Marines and 200 members of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force spent two weeks practicing basic infantry skills and working to eliminate language, cultural and operational differences. Though smaller than originally planned, the exercise carried on despite budget chaos in Washington and a typhoon that battered much of eastern and central Japan.
The senior Japanese commander on the scene said the exercise, held twice a year, was unrelated to growing tensions with China or the debate over collective self-defense.
“The strategic environment surrounding our country has changed and the Japanese people are concerned about their security. Our mission is to be ready to protect the peace and security of this country — we are confident we can do that,” said Colonel Sosuke Yoshida, commander of the 37th Infantry Regiment.
Lieut. Colonel Tom Wood, commander of the Third Battalion, Third Marine Regiment, said he was impressed with the planning, maintenance and field skills of the Japanese troops. If they lack anything, he said, it’s the ingrained aggressiveness that U.S. troops have learned through a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“You can see it: they are not an offensive force, they are a self-defense force,” said Wood. “But I’d be happy to serve alongside these guys. We know they’ll be there.”

美帝有更多朋友

打一场战争

 

美在罗马尼亚反导基地开建防范伊朗导弹


 美国将在罗马尼亚南部的德维塞卢空军基地部署导弹拦截装置。
美国设在罗马尼亚南部的反导基地周一(28日)开工建设。该基地预计 2015年投入使用。
美国将在罗马尼亚的德维塞卢空军基地部署标准-3导弹拦截装置和雷达设施。
美国政府表示,这些导弹不能携带爆炸弹头,没有攻击能力。
这些导弹没有进攻能力,目标是针对敌国发射的弹道导弹。
伊朗被视为潜在威胁,但是美国的这项部署计划激怒了俄罗斯。
美国国务院表示,这个神盾反导系统是北约针对“中东地区弹道导弹技术扩散构成的不多增大的威胁”。
美国官员表示,在罗马尼亚建设的反导系统将会保护美国的欧洲盟国不受到“流氓”国家的导弹攻击。
罗马尼亚总统伯塞斯库在周一的仪式上发表讲话说,罗马尼亚的发展应该从安全着手,希望德韦塞卢基地能够成为北约保护系统的一部分。
2009年9月,奥巴马政府宣布放弃在东欧建立导弹防御基地的计划,转而推出一项“分阶段、更有针对性和操作性、更具效率”的反导系统部署 方案。
2010年2月4日,罗最高国防委员会决定,罗将加入美国在欧洲新的反导系统;次年9月,两国在华盛顿就部署反导系统签署协议,确定美国在 2015年之前在罗部署陆基SM-3导弹拦截装置。
俄罗斯官员表示,美国的导弹防御系统将会削弱俄国的战略导弹的攻击能力,并威胁说,俄方的洲际导弹将会携带威力更大的弹头。
亲共港媒:维族车撞天安门 政治局7常委正在附近开会


世人瞩目的中共十八届三中全会召开前夕,一辆来自新疆的吉普车昨午突然闯入北京心脏地带天安门城楼前行人道,撞倒数十名中外游客及警察,再撞 向华表及金水桥护栏,继而爆炸起火,造成最少5人死亡38人受伤。死者包括车厢内的司机及两名乘客,其中最少2人是维吾尔族男子,另两名死者 是来自菲律宾的女游客及广东的男游客,伤者则包括3名菲律宾人和1名日本人。其中一名身亡维族 男子来自6月底有35人因恐袭死亡的新疆鲁克沁镇。

京通告指疑犯自新疆

由北京治安总队昨日发出的一份「关于立即开展违法车辆线索摸排工作的通知」指出,北京市昨日发生「重大案件」,其中两名违法疑犯分别是来 自新疆皮山县皮山农场男子玉苏普.艾合普提和来自吐鲁蕃市鄯善县鲁克沁镇的玉苏普.吾买尔尼亚孜,疑犯驾驶浅色越野车,4个车牌号均是属 于新疆的「新」字开头车牌。


通知称,为防可疑人员和车辆继续作案,现要求各接待住宿单位立即对10月1日以来入住客人、停放车辆和曾入住客人驾驶的车辆进行「摸排」,如 发现可疑人员和车辆线索应立即向治安总队行管支队报告。

本报记者昨晚致电北京市治安总队行管支队的一名负责人,对方证实该通知为总队昨日发出。

吉普车起火车上3人亡

据北京警方通报,昨午12时许,「一辆吉普车由北京市南池子南口闯入长安街便道,由东向西行驶撞向天安门金水桥护栏后起火,行驶过程 中造成多名游客及执勤警察受伤」。据现场网友透露,该车先冲向人群,再撞上华表,路透社更引述目击者称,车辆起火前听见爆炸声。从现 场图片可见,吉普车燃起熊熊烈火,浓烟天,广场上不少伤者倒地不起,部分外籍游客还为伤者急救。


另外两个不同的消息来源向本报透露,事件为新疆维族人所为,车上有维族人,但并不确定车内3人是否全是维族人。对于上述传闻,新疆自治区 政府新闻发言人罗夫永昨回应说﹕「到目前为止,我还没有听到这样的说法,我没有比你得到更多的消息,我想你的消息可能比我还多。」


昨早政治局7常委附近开会

天安门曾经见证多次历史事件,一直是大陆民运、维权者表达意见的敏感地方,昨日既是三中全会召开前夕,同时上午中共政治局7名常委还集体出席 在出事地点咫尺之遥的人民大会堂召开的全国妇联大会,时机和地点均特别敏感。事发后,当局立即疏散广场上游人,并封锁整个广场。事发3小时, 现场才基本恢复原状,被撞护栏、石狮上可见修补痕。

事件中的伤者分别被送往附近的北京医院、同仁医院、辅仁医院和协和医院,北京市委书记郭金龙下午曾去探望他们。《南方都市报》引述23岁菲律 宾女伤者弗兰西斯卡(Francesca)称,当时她与父母、妹妹、导游一行五人走出故宫,准备穿过地下行人道前往天安门广场,这时一辆车飞 速向他们冲去,「我听到了汽车鸣笛,但当我意识到时已经太晚了。我的脑子一片空白,等我清醒过来的时候,我们已经全部倒在了地上」。弗兰西斯 卡与父亲、妹妹均受伤留院,但她不知母亲情。官方未证实菲籍女死者是否就是其母亲。
中國房地產 市場的九個問答


在紅朝「以房養老」的忽悠聲中,雖然人們多不買帳,也不相信,不過還是有許多國人寄望於中國的房地產價格會繼續增長,房子以後會越來越值錢。 但如果人們聽一聽、看一看其他國家的歷史經驗,人們的想法可能就不太會一樣了。

日本房地產的教訓

日本房地產泡沫1990年破滅時,經濟陷入一片糟。日本當時的土地價格是怎麼漲的呢?1984年,東京商業區的地價是每平方米130萬日圓, 或者當年的5600美元。僅僅一年以後,商業區的地價就變成每平米190萬日圓,或者當年的8000美元,一年增長了40%。到了1986 年,商業地價更漲到每平米420萬日圓,或2萬5000美元。居民房地產的土地價格從1985年的每平米30萬日圓,或1200美元,漲到 1986年的每平米43萬日圓,或2500美元。一年漲了45%

實際上,直到今天,23年過去了,日本房地產的價格只相當於1983年的水平。換句話說,30年來房地產的價值根本沒有任何向上的變動。想想 這種現象發生在中國,那些夢想著30年後退休時,指望用房產來養老的人們,可能都不敢往下想了。人們都說歷史總是那麼相似,人們也說歷史總是 在重演。那也就是說,人們其實不怎麼會從歷史中學到教訓,不管歷史學家怎麼提醒,看來也不太管用。

中國房地產的九個問答

如果說,日本的房地產泡沫破滅時,日本民眾中是既有輸家也有贏家,因為價格大跌有人吐血,但總是有手握現金的人們趁機撿便宜貨;但中國房地產 泡沫破滅時,恐怕所有的中國人都是輸家,只有中共既得利益集團才是唯一的贏家。

中國的房市,嚴格的說來,根本就不是一個真正的房地產買賣市場。因為,按照市場的定義來看,市場是商品的合法擁有者通過一個協商後的價格,來 轉讓所有權。但中國的房地產本身,誰是擁有者呢?是中共政府!但中共政府這個「擁有者」,其擁有這些土地的合法性在哪裡呢?這是一個十分嚴肅 的問題,這個問題若得不到回答,其他都是紙上談兵、空中樓閣,沒有實質意義的。實際上,中國房地產市場的亂象和荒唐,其實都是從這個最根本問 題上的荒謬開始的,也可以歸結為九個問題,可以用這九個問答概括一二。

一、中國有沒有真正的房地產市場?答案是否定的。因為中共根本不會放棄用暴力奪取而來的土地,或者用殺人的代價打下來的「紅色江山」。紅二代 「雄赳赳、氣昂昂」,還在準備接班,接管這片流著鮮血的土地。但顯然,不管是紅朝本身,還是從房地產市場獲益甚多的國企和房地產大亨,都不願 意正視這個問題,也刻意迴避產權的問題,而繼續用70年使用權的「租金」,來代替產權轉讓的買價,繼續欺騙世人。從這個角度看,中國根本就沒 有真正的房地產市場;人們鬧哄哄的追捧一通,最後會發現都被中共給騙了。

二、中國的房地產泡沫是誰造成的?人們在聽著中共政權在說政府在宏觀調控、微觀調控,試圖穩定或降低房地產的過熱效應時,會以為中南海真的是 要控制中國房地產的泡沫了。其實他們根本就沒有打算這樣做,政府只是在做做樣子,以顯示他們在有所作為,是要幫助百姓。其實不是,如果中國政 府真的要消除房產泡沫,沒有比這更簡單的辦法了!

辦法之一,是全面實名、重新登記所有中國的房地產,包括每一寸土地和每一個房間。如此做來,那些貪官名下的20套、80套、120套房產就無 處遁形了。
辦法之二,是每處房地產徵收1-5%的年度「房地產稅」。可能1%就行,5%就絕對足以逼迫所有的貪官拋售名下的房產了。兩辦法雙管齊下,中 國房價立馬就會降下來!為什麼說是所謂的「房地產」稅呢?看看問題六,人們就知道,中國是不該有「房地產稅」的,但可以稱之為「房租價格 稅」。

三、房地產調控長效機制有沒有用?知道問題之二的答案,人們就知道所有的調控措施都是銀樣蠟槍頭,或禿子頭上的虱子,是明擺著給人看的,是不 會有作用的。

四、中共在中國房地產市場目前的狀態中,能得到什麼好處?好處是顯而易見的,房市加印錢製造通貨膨脹,是最便捷、最「體面」、最隱晦、也最利 用了心理學成果的撈錢辦法。想想看,大樓蓋起來了,傻乎乎的百姓還覺得自豪,真是不知那些漂亮的大樓是誰的囊中之物。中共地方政府對土地財政 樂此不彼,原因也在這裡。說中共精通心理學,是它抓住了中國百姓當掉褲子也要買房子、浸在血液裡的「農民—土地—房產」的強烈意識和情結。

五、70年使用權為什麼是最大的流氓?70年使用權出籠時,是很無恥的。因為原本說中國所有的土地都是屬於人民的,是公有、全民所有的。讓人 們付租金租賃原本屬於自己的土地,天底下有這樣的事嗎?還有,為什麼是70年?國際上長期的合約,一般來說,經常是99年,因為那是人們壽命 的幾乎上限。決定了只給人們70年,幾乎是在催命、索命一樣。

六、中國的「房地產稅」該收嗎?回答了問題一和五,人們不難意識到,中國沒有私有產權,中國百姓沒有土地的擁有權,自然也就沒有房地產稅的合 法性基礎。

七、中國房價多少才算合理?這也很好辦,把中國的勞動成本、建材成本、建造成本、人均收入、人均土地面積和世界類似國家相比,就很容易算出中 國百姓的合理住房負擔。這樣,中國房地產的價格,就可以算出來了。按筆者以前的估計,中國房價降價70-90%,才能達到這一目標。

問題八和九,中國的房地產登記制度該怎麼建立?中國房地產的未來在何方?這兩個問題的回答,都與中共退出歷史舞臺的大趨勢有關。中共當權、貪 官控制之時,房地產登記是不可能令人信服、公平制定並實施的。誰會願意披露自己的貪污所得、盜竊所得?而中國房地產的未來在何方,也在於突破 中國目前政治上的僵局和中共內部的絞殺,讓中國大地的「去共化」趨勢加強、深化。唯如此,才能從所有權制度上解決中國房地產的問題。而中國房 地產的問題一旦解決,中國經濟中最大、最有影響力的部分就釋然、冰消瓦解了。◇

为什么中国的公司到处都是被列入黑名单

澳新政府称将继续对华为实施禁令


澳新政府将继续禁止华为参与澳国家宽带网计划。
澳大利亚新政府表示,根据情报机构的建议将支持对中国电讯公司华为下达的禁令,禁止其参与澳洲的国家 宽带网络计划。
2012年,前工党政府根据情报部门的“强烈建议”禁止华为公司参与 澳洲国家宽带网络计划的基础设施建设
华为对有关决定提出批评,并否认华为对澳大利亚构成安全威胁。
不过,澳大利亚总检察长布兰迪斯说,在9月7日联邦大选中胜出的保守党政府没有调整有关政策的打算。
布兰迪斯说,根据国家安全机构的建议,前任政府不许华为对国家宽带网络计划展开竞标。
他说:“大选后,新政府已听取了国家安全机构的多次汇报。新政府没有计划在相关问题上改变决定。”
布兰迪斯补充说,新政府不会就国家安全部门的建议发表评论。

中国人民解放军方背景

《澳大利亚金融评论》说,华为曾在坎培拉展开积极的游说工作,希望推翻有关禁令。
该报说,布兰迪斯否决了新政府内部一些同事要求放宽对华为限制的提议。
该报还表示,其他的内阁成员对改变前工党政府的政策持反对态度,他们还担心,让华为参与竞标可能被美国视为问题。
跨国电讯公司华为公司由一名前中国人民解放军工程师创建,过去曾被美国政府禁止 在美竞投,原因是政治家们担心该公司与中国军方和北京政府关系太近。
美国众议院情报委员会去年以华为威胁美国国家安全为由,呼吁美国企业停止与该公司的业 务关系。但华为否认有关指控。

台湾政府单位购华为产品被批“危害国安”



华为在台湾可以销售通讯产品,但是不能参与电讯工程。
台湾政府各部门对是否购买安全性被质疑的华为通讯产 品做法不一,被批评是“严重危害国安”
台湾在野党--民进党籍立法委员蔡煌瑯說,台湾政府一方面禁止被指有解放军背景的华为投标台湾的电讯工程,但是过去一年台湾的各个政府机关 却都有采购华为制造的通讯产品。

蔡煌瑯出示资料显示,采购华为产品最多的是台湾的法务部调查局,总统府和行政院也有购置华为生产的行动网卡,交通部甚至购置了华为生产的手 机。
他表示,负责国家安全的国安局应该禁止政府机关购置华为的产品。
调查局回应说,蔡煌瑯所提的产品是行动网卡,是由网路服务商中华电信所提供,不是该局主动采购,而且网路设计的是封闭的,资料无法传到其他 地方,所以没有泄密的问题。
国安局局长蔡得胜则说,对华为的产品一直采取保守的态度,也高度的关注,不赞成政府机关使用华为的电讯产品。
他表示,将继续提醒有关的机关单位不能轻忽对待此一问题,并说已经决定公家机关不能购买华为的产品。
蔡得胜还说,有为总统府配备足够的各式通讯设备,足够任务所需和处理公务之用。

 


Monday, October 28, 2013

Five dead after car crashes in Beijing's Tiananmen Square - China's First Terrorism Attack ?


Car in flames in China's Tiananmen Square Photo: Photos of a car in flames in front of the Forbidden City were posted on Weibo, China's equivalent of Twitter.

 
Five people were killed and dozens injured when a car ploughed into pedestrians and caught fire in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Monday.
The blaze sent clouds of smoke billowing into the air near a giant portrait of Mao Zedong that dominates one end of the square, the site of pro-democracy protests in 1989 which were brutally crushed by the authorities.
Chinese police say the car veered off the road at the north of the square, crossed the barriers and caught fire.
"The incident led to five deaths and 38 injuries," Beijing police said on their verified account on Sina Weibo, a Chinese equivalent of Twitter.
The driver of the vehicle and two passengers were killed, along with two tourists, one a woman from the Philippines and the other a man from Guangdong province in southern China.
Three Philippine tourists and one Japanese were among the injured.
"I saw a car turn a bend and suddenly it was driving on the pavement, it happened fast but looked like it knocked people over," one eyewitness who did not want to be named told AFP.
"I heard an explosion and saw fire. The scene was very frightening.
"There were paramilitary police who told people to get back into their cars and stop taking pictures."
Crash in China's Tiananmen Square Photo: Tiananmen square was briefly evacuated after a car burst into flames after driving into a crowd.
 

Immediately after the crash a security operation swung into force on the vast square, the symbolic centre of the Chinese state.

Police erected high curtain-like barricades directly in front of the Mao portrait, blocking passers-by from viewing the scene.

The main road through the square was briefly closed, and police also evacuated the main part of the square.
There has been no explanation so far about the cause of the crash.

Witnesses and reports said the SUV vehicle drove along the pavement outside the Forbidden City before crashing - prompting speculation the incident was intentional.
"Is this the 2013 Tiananmen self-immolation incident?" asked the writer of one social media post. "There's still a person inside the car!"

Another pointed out that the vehicle had driven through a pedestrian area, adding: "It couldn't have been a car accident but was a premeditated event."

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said she did not know "the specifics" when asked whether there was any evidence of a terrorist attack.



Tiananmen Square is always under heavy security due to its proximity to the Zhongnanhai compound of the central leadership and due to the Great Hall of the People which overlooks the square. It is also the site of Mao's mausoleum.

But the square is still a magnet for protesters, especially around the June 4 anniversary of the crushing of the student-led demonstrations in 1989, though they are normally swiftly bundled away by police.
Firefighting equipment is placed around the square to prevent self-immolation protests.
天安门发生恐怖袭击 ?

天安门发生车辆撞击事件至少五人死亡

http://ww1.sinaimg.cn/bmiddle/67be458fgw1ea0uxevcz7j20c31idjvw.jpg肇事汽车撞伤行人后起火,车内三人均告死亡
一辆吉普车星期一(10月28日)中午在北京天安门前撞向护栏后起火,并冲上人行道撞死路人。截至目前, 导致5人死亡,包括车内3人,多名游客及警察受伤。
北京警方称事件发生在12时05分许,一辆吉普车由南池子南口拐入长安街便道,由东向西行驶撞向金水桥护栏后起火。事发地点几乎是天安门城 楼的正门。
中国媒体报道说,事件造成5人死亡,38人受伤,其中肇事车内3人死亡,另有2名游客死亡(1名菲律宾籍女游客、1名广东省男游客)。
受伤人员中包括3名菲律宾籍游客及1名日本籍男游客。
http://ww1.sinaimg.cn/bmiddle/4166d821jw1ea0rs9mwv4j20qo0f0q3n.jpg
中国外交部发言人华春莹当天进行例行新闻发布会,有记者问该事件是否是恐怖袭击,华春莹表示具体情况不清楚,不予评论。
事件发生后,长安街天安门段被封锁,交通受阻。
北京地铁也在微博发布:应公安要求,12:39地铁1号线天安门东站采取临时封站措施,1号线各次列车在天安门东站通过不停车,此外1号线 天安门西站B口采取出入口封闭措施。
路透社报道称,事故发生后警方疏散了天安门广场的人群。
一名在现场的外国女游客对路透社称,她听到了一声爆炸,随后看到起火。
“北京地铁”随后发布微博说:15:41地铁1号线天安门东站封闭措施解除,1号线各次列车在天安门东站正常升降,同时1号线天安门西站B 口解除封闭。
微博上不少网友发布了现场的照片,可以看到武警装甲车以及救护车等。
但随后不少照片被微博管理人员删除。
天安门广场是中国中央权力的象征,一直处于国安部门、警方以及便衣的严密监控之下。
天安门也是一些民众抗议和宣泄不满的地点,2011年一名42岁男子由于不满司法裁决,在天安门城楼毛泽东肖像附近自焚。

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Bottom-Line Buccaneers Battle Piracy


Hard guys
Heavily armed oceangoing security firms seek bounty in chasing Somali brigands
The arrest last week by Indian police of a Sierra Leone-registered ship operated by the Virginia anti-piracy company AdvanFort, shines a spotlight on the dramatic proliferation of seagoing Blackwater-style private militias out to thwart Somali and other pirates for profit.
Protection is a fertile market, with “business opportunities,” as they are called, more than doubling since 2008. Scores of PMSCs – private military security companies made up mostly of heavily armed former SEALs and SAS and British Royal Marines Special Boat Service personnel – have sprung up to combat piracy, creating a security industry worth as much as US$6 billion annually.
There could be even more, more, since there is no registry that might give some clue as to who they are – or as to the quality of their personnel or the success of their operations. It was estimated in a recent Bloomberg report that about 40 percent of the 42,500 ships that transit the region each year now use armed guards, compared to 15 percent a year ago.

The companies are made up almost entirely of elite ex-military and ex-law enforcement personnel, who find that the PMSCs offer attractive and lucrative work, much safer than providing private security in war-torn places like Iraq, where they risk being blown up, shot or kidnapped. Aboard the MV Seaman Guard Ohio – Advanfort’s ship, for instance –were eight Indians, six British nationals, and some Estonians and Ukrainians and 25 security contractors along with semi-automatic weapons, 35 guns and over 5,000 rounds of ammunition.

So far in 2013, according to the International Chamber of Commerce’s International Maritime Bureau, 176 incidents of piracy - including 10 hijackings – were reported across the world, with 57 hostages continuing to be held by Somali pirates. And as navies and private companies like AdvanFort have increased their presence off the Somali coast, Nigerians and others on the other side of Africa have picked up the idea of piracy as a lucrative enterprise.

In addition, the waters near Johor and Malacca in Malaysia have reportedly now surpassed Somalia in piracy incidents, according to the International Maritime Bureau although the Strait of Malacca so far has remained safe for international shipping. However, the Kuala Lumpur-based IMB has warned mariners to take precautions when plying the 960km stretch shared by Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. It remains to be seen if the PMSCs will move into that stretch of water as well.

Ship-owners have grown tired of paying ransom demands that now average US$4-$5 million compared to just US$15,000 in 2005, according to a study by Peter Chalk, a senior analyst for the Rand Corporation. In 2011, Chalk wrote, US$159.62 million was paid out to secure the release of captured vessels, including a record US$12 million for the return of the M/V Zirku – a Kuwaiti-owned oil tanker that seized in 2012 and held for 73 days, Chalk wrote in a 2012 paper commissioned by the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.

AdvanFort and the others are out to do well by doing good. An external escort – an accompanying patrol boat – costs anywhere between US$10,000 and US$100,000 depending on the length of the accompanied trip, usually a week or so through endangered waters, according to Chalk’s paper, while on-board security details typically run between $21,000 and $50,000 per transit.

AdvanFort’s Seaman Guard Ohio, which had been spotted for about a month in or near Indian waters by officials before a cyclone drove the ship out of international waters and into India’s exclusion zone, was home to 35 or so men who were largely alumni of the US Navy’s SEALS and the British SAS, a spokesman in Herndon, Virginia in the US told Asia Sentinel in a telephone interview. The Seaman Guard Ohio is one of several ships stationed in various places around the globe, the spokesman said, providing on-board security for ships making transit through dangerous areas.
“We provide maritime security, consultancies for governments, for companies trying to wind up contracts overseas, help them secure ships,” said the spokesman, who declined to be named.
Most of the personnel, he said, “are ex-law enforcement, ex-military, all trained annually and screened for psychology and physical, given firearms training. They are all Americans and British.”

The PMSCs provide a lucrative post-service employment deal for tough guys – and girls – who have mustered out and are still looking for action. As with AdvanFort, discharged military personnel from the UK and the US make up the majority of Western contractors. And there are plenty of them to pick from. More than 6 million military personnel have been discharged since the 1990s as the cold war wound down, and more are leaving the service as Afghanistan drones into its 12th year.

After some initial reluctance to have boatloads of trigger-happy ex-servicemen floating around looking for trouble, several governments, including the United States, have become more receptive to the PMSCs, as have cash-strapped shipping companies caught in the global downturn who have seen their insurance rates drop by as much as 40 percent for ships accompanied by security teams passing through pirate-infested waters.

Nonetheless, there is the potential for trouble, partly, as retired US Navy Rear Admiral Terence E. McKnight, the US Commander of Task Force 151 off the coast of Somalia, pointed out in an interview published on AdvanFort’s website. Because the United States has refused to ratify the Law of the Sea, there is no way to enforce seagoing law as countries do for the directives of any nation-state. The private security teams aren’t subject to any regulation.

If the incidents listed on the AdvanFort webpage are any indication, the company’s personnel are eager to engage, although they have been careful to fire shots close to potential pirates to warn them off – not as the Italians did – at the men in small boats themselves.

“Most of the security teams are hiring ex-Special Forces members who are trained not only on self-defense, but security issues,” Adm. McKnight said in the AdvanFort interview. “All indications are that the majority of the teams that are out there are sanctioned by the governments and have gone through some type of certification, on how they are trained and what they are trained for. So it's not like the Wild West, where it was: ‘Let's just form a posse and grab people off the street.’ The last thing you want to do is have a company that is sending people out there who are not trained and we have an incident that would put a bad name on the maritime community.”

李嘉诚出售资产传言令商界揣测纷纷


香港码头工人今年4月抗议行动
香港码头工人今年4月在李嘉诚属下公司总部外抗议


《金融时报》周一(11月21日)报道了香港首富李嘉诚近来的一系列出售资产行动所引起的揣测。

李嘉诚和记黄埔集团的电能实业有限公司最近决定分拆,将香港电力业务独立上市;而他名下的地产集团――长江实业则出卖了在香港新界 的嘉湖银座商业中心。

李嘉诚零售集团的百佳超市自今年夏天以来一直有意出售,本周末决定暂缓。与此同时,和记黄埔宣布考虑另一家零售企业屈臣氏分拆上 市。

《金融时报》评论说,李嘉诚的资产王国包括码头、房地产和电讯等等,他如果对香港不再乐观可能有种种原因。

“去年,跟许多香港大亨一样,李嘉诚在香港行政长官选举过程中没有支持正确的候选人。”

在选举中获胜的梁振英,上任后出台的政策可能会影响房地产业的核心。而今年,码头工人在长江实业总部外的抗议示威,更形容李嘉诚是 妖魔。

李嘉诚本人一直坚持,出售香港资产不过是商业决定。
《金融时报》说,分析人士对李嘉诚可能出售所有屈臣氏业务感到吃惊,因为出售百佳的主要动机是腾出资金和管理时间专注增长速度快得 多的屈臣氏业务。

李嘉诚出售多个资产项目可能说明,香港的增长潜力不如正在恢复的欧洲

这在香港可能是很敏感的政治问题,但一些分析人士认为从投资角度来说至少能说得通。

报道最后引述分析人士的话说,要解读李嘉诚真的和传说中的出售资产动机是不可能的。

“他们集团最擅长的一件事就是先造一下声势,看看别人出什么价。

“如果出价高过你的预期,那就卖了吧。”

过期裙带权贵的下场 - 李嘉诚或因政治卖资



糖王在马来西亚是另一个例子


英国《金融时报》报导,香港首富李嘉诚出售资產的决定,可能和他在特首选举中支持了错误的候选人有关。

虽然李嘉诚一直坚持,他出售香港资產只是商业决定,但《
金融时报》週一的评论指,如果李嘉诚对香港不再乐观,可能有种种原因,其中一个就是去 年他和香港许多富商一样,在特首选举中押错注,没有支持「正確的候选人」。

而现任特首梁振英上任后的政策,却可能影响房地產业,
今年码头工人的示威更形容李嘉诚为「妖魔」。

早前李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔有限公司宣佈,
考虑出售旗下百佳业务和旗下屈臣氏业务。《金融时报》形容,这个决定令人吃惊,因为屈臣氏的业务增长 比百佳快得多,认为出售百佳的主要动机,正是腾出资金和时间专注管理屈臣氏。

李嘉诚的举动亦可以说明,
他认为香港的增长潜力不如经济正復甦的欧洲。

但报导亦称,真正分析李嘉诚的动机是不可能的,
因为和黄最擅长做的事就是造势,观察別人出价。

偏爱外国货的中国人


 
 

在成都市中心新世界百货(New World Department Store)卖男装的那一层,你会发现在美国或者欧洲任意一个二线城市所能看到的那种快时尚服装。成都是一座位于中国西部的城市,拥有1400万人口。

许多铺面挂的都是英文招牌,但店内服装的品牌名称却令人陌生。“I’m David”销售的是城市休闲服装,“Scofield”旨在打造一股英伦风,“Mind Bridge”和“Gather Jewels”走的都是常青藤联盟预科学校的学生风格。

这些品牌看起来或许像模像样,但它们很难与优衣库(Uniqlo)、Zara以及H&M抗衡,这三大外资品牌在附近都有自己的门 店。
中国正力图通过刺激消费支出来平衡经济结构,以摆脱严重依赖工厂及地产投资的增长模式,上文提及的这类品牌反映出了中国在这个过程中所面临 的挑战和机遇。

中国消费者喜欢外国商品。不论是运动鞋、汽车、电视、手机、化妆品抑或是尿布,调查结果都是外国品牌占优势。
中国市场研究集团(China Market Research)的雷小山(Shaun Rein)表示,中国民众相信外国品牌不会偷工减料,而且与本土品牌相比有更加深厚的品牌传统。










随着中国民众愈发中产化并且在非必需品方面的支出越来越多,中国面临着一个问题:民众购买的外国商品越多,就有越多的中国发展成果流入其他 国家的企业主手中,相应地,中国企业的利润水平就越低,可再投入国内电子等行业创新及技术研发的资金规模也就越小。

当美国在二战后迎来消费繁荣期时,世界的全球化程度远低于今日水平——美国人的绝大部分消费支出流向了美国人自己所有的企业手中。除非中国 改变发展路径,财富从中国流向外国企业的趋势将影响中国以一种可持续且更加公平的方式走向富裕的能力。

中国缺乏受欢迎品牌的事实已经在某种程度上反映在了中国与其他国家的贸易平衡上。中国拥有巨额的名义贸易顺差,但当经济学家对贸易数据进行 调整,加上中国生产商品在国内消费部分的价值,并减去所生产商品在海外消费部分的价值时,得到的结果则勾勒出了一个完全不同的故事。

根据西班牙对外银行(BBVA)经济学家们运用增加值方法的计算,中国对美国的贸易顺差从1890亿美元下降到了1270亿美元。造成这一 降幅的主要原因在于电子及光学设备、纺织品和服装等领域的价值扣减。

中国的未来并非只取决于消费品牌的发展状况。中国已经开始在基建等领域向外输出专业技术,并有望获得盈利。中国广核集团(China General Nuclear Power Corporation)就于上周达成了一项协议,将在英格兰西部参与建设一座大型核电站。

中国企业还在其他不太引人注意的领域高歌猛进。电信设备制造商华为(Huawei)或许较少直接面对终端消费者,但它在发达国家和新兴经济 体中正在发展壮大。

但消费品领域的品牌建设仍然非常重要——品牌具有知识产权和商誉,这能带来更高的利润率以及更大的利润规模。
中国品牌已经开始在某些领域取得发展,主要是快速消费品。加多宝是一种红罐包装的中草本凉茶;雷小山指出,加多宝在中国的销量较可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)高出数倍,而价格是可口可乐的两倍。

市场研究公司尼尔森(Neilsen)的范奕瑾(Kiki Fan)表示,像加多宝这样的品牌已经不再试图与跨国公司正面竞争,而是借助有关健康的传统观念以及某些草药或成分的效果来吸引消费者。她指出:“一些中 国本土品牌更了解如何迎合传统观念,并借助这些观念来推广含天然成分的产品。”

Superbrands China的阿诺•迪班(Arnaud Debane)表示,中国本土品牌甚至已经开始在低成本智能手机、电视机等商品化程度更高的复杂产品领域取得进展。

即使是在外国品牌明显更受消费者青睐的领域,如汽车,中国也已经能把更多的财富保留在国内。西班牙对外银行首席新兴市场经济学家阿莉西亚• 加西亚- 埃雷罗(Alicia Garcia-Herrero)指出,部分原因在于长城汽车(Great Wall)等国产品牌的实际销量要好于消费者偏好调查所反映的情况,此外与商品在中国国内的生产和运输流程也很有关系。

她表示:“物流成本可能非常高昂,因此整条供应链中你控制的部分越多,就能拥有更多价值。”

如果中国能像邻国一样,发展出像韩国三星(Samsung)或者日本丰田(Toyota)那样的大品牌,就不仅可以打开国内13.5亿人的 市场,同时还能进入全球数十亿人的市场。

如果中国不能打造出或者收购此类品牌,那么在未来的几十年中,中国持续多年的贸易顺差就有转为逆差的风险,而这并不是中国经济再平衡战略 ——向消费驱动型转变——的本意。