Sunday, November 25, 2012

KCPO - Bulls Failed For Now But Don't Lose Hope Yet - 11/26/2012

Last week as I was expressing my excitment on the double bottoms formation and bullish divergence, I also mentioned that the MACD was relatively "far" from its horizontal line, so I would be cuatious about my long positions. And I was right on that one, the market began to soften again since last Monday and continued to dip lower and lower. I closed off my long positions when price went below prior day low on last Tuesday. So far I did not engage in any new positions as both the Stochastic and MACD has failed to compliment the price below the middle band sell signal. Both has remained positive.


The weekly chart remains bearish biased as MACD, DMI and Stochastic are negative. The ADX is still rising and has not gone flat  so this is telling us that the bears are still in control. Though the lower D- peak and higher Stochastic trough which act as subtle warnings to weakening bears, but I would need to see price closing above the bottom band in order to abandon the bears.

I am still a little bit biased toward the return of the bull analysis of this market. Last week I had already bought in US bean oil and so far that trade has been rewarding. Of course I do not get emotional or egotistic but I am basing my "feeling" on the KCPO's double bottoms formation and bullish divergence. This is very important if you want to make money from any market, always ask yourself :- "show me the evidence !" Recently I was telling my friends that I think Obama will win again. Some of them laughed at me saying I begin to talk like a Feng Shui Lo. But I explained to them I said so because the DJIA chart shows whenever the market rallies 6-9 months before the election, the incumbent will always win 95% of the time. So that is like reading a chart, it is all about evidence in historical "data".
FKLI - Longer Term Chart Flashing More Sell Signal - 11/26/2012

Prices were hanging around for the first few trading days of last week, then it went down further on last Friday. If you had applied a stop 2 points above the prior day high, then you would had stopped out on last Thursday. But if you use the lower band as stop, then your short positions would still be intact. It must emphasized here again that there is no fool-proof method for placing stops. So if you were stopped out on Thursday , do not get too annoyed about it. I would wait for another sell signal to get back in.

The Stochastic is in the so called oversold zone, but MACD still show no sign of reversal as it is still falling like a rock. And it is well supported by the rising ADX which is confirming a strong trend. But as the ADX has now reached 33's, I would advocate some cautions here as the selling may be a little overextended. You should tighten your stop from here onward. Placing it at 2 points above prior day high should be a prudent move. If the D- is to fall and crosses below the ADX, then the current selling episode may be over.

 The weekly chart further confirmed last week's sell signal of price closing below the bottom band by reaching a lower low. All the indicators are complimenting the sell side as the Stochastic and MACD stay negative and falling. The DMI is also negative and begins to expand outward. Together with the rising ADX, they are confirming a trend in this market.

As we are approaching the end of the month by the coming week. I would also like to take a look at the monthly chart now and it is beginning to take side with the bears. Both the Stochastic and MACD have already turned negative and price has gone below the top band of 1624. By the last trading day of the month which is on 30th. and if price is unable to close back above the top band, then we most probably has an intial sell signal.

On the daily chart we may see some consolidation before the next shoe drops as the weekly chart is confirming all system goes for a sell. But if price can close back above 1624, then I would have to rethink on the current bearish scenario, otherwise it is time to do some serious selling.

Friday, November 23, 2012

 Australia a “one trick pony”

London-based Kyran Curry, the long-time primary credit analyst for Australia at S&P, is back and the news is getting worse. From the AFR:
“The banks are highly indebted, they’re highly leveraged, they are the main vehicle Australia uses to fund its current account deficit…Australia has, as we see it, got some credit metrics that are right off the scale when it comes to assessing Australia’s external position…It’s got high levels of liabilities, it’s got very weak external liquidity and that basically means the banks are highly indebted compared to their peers…They’re benefiting from a safe haven at the moment – nonetheless investor sentiment can turn very quickly…We just worry that at some point, the people who are funding the Australian banks may decide that enough is enough and may begin to lose confidence in the bank’s ability to roll over their debt…That would come through a weakening in Australia’s major trading partners flowing through to a dramatic weakening in Australia’s fiscal position.”
Curry said this could be a two or three year scenario. But he added:
“Anything that weighs on the ability of Australia to bring forward new energy projects and that weighs on its export growth potential, that’s something that would put pressure on the rating. Australia is looking increasingly like a one-trick pony.”
Regular readers will note that S&P has pretty much captured my entire ‘peak Australia’ thesis. It is simultaneously ripping aside the veil of invisopower that regulators have dispersed around the banks and seeing for it is the singularly backward macroeconomic strategy of embracing Dutch disease.  My two great fears.
The last line is the worst. I am of the view that LNG will rationalise – the current set of projects that is – not the fictitious pipeline. That means there is a risk that this is not a two or three scenario at all. Which does offer an answer to the question: why is S&P ramping its warnings now?
Canberra must immediately dispatch to Beijing a high level delegation to demand further stimulus. Perhaps a high-speed rail link from Beijing to the Bush Capital? That way, when they’re ready, the Chinese can relax in comfort on the way down to buy our banks.
'Detonating' A Bomb On The Japanese Economy

Japan is about to "detonate" a "debt bomb" and will be forced to massively devalue its currency, Kyle Bass says. Bass, of course, is massively bearish on Japan, having bet (incorrectly so far) on a fiscal crisis.

In an interview with University of Virginia business school professor Ken Eades posted on, Bass argues Japan is already in a crisis, and that the likely election of Shinzo Abe next month (an election we already admonished readers to pay close attention to) will set off a chain of events that will result in a devaluation of the Yen and treasury yields skyrocketing.

"In the next 12 to 18 months, I think you're going to see a move in their rates. Basically Japan is entering its final 'checkmate' phase of the chess game."

Japan is already running a -$100 billion trade balance, Bass says, and the country's GDP has been hit by Chinese boycott stemming from the Diayou/Senkuku islands dispute.

"You have a secular decline in the population happening, you have a balance of trade that's literally being rewritten and falling off a cliff and their GDP is now tracking -3.5, -4 percent.

Bass sees December's election as a foregone conclusion that will dangerously exacerbate the situation.

"We think Abe's a shoo-in. And he said he's going to do everything possible to get to 3 percent inflation.  He doesn't even know what he wishes for, because if he gets there, he detonates his debt bomb. "

But Bass argues the Bank of Japan's independence has been "usurped."

"When there's a press release put on the BOJ's website from the MOF [ministry of finance], the BOJ and the government — that's analogous to Bernanke, Geithner and Hillary Clinton issuing a joint press release saying 'we're going to end deflation'. This is how it begins to happen"

He concludes

"Their backs are against the wall. They have a full crisis. They absolutely have to change the manner in which they deal with their currency."

 A Yen Showdown

For new traders coming into the Forex market there can seem to be a battle of fundamental vs. technical analysis of the market. 
Here is  both types of study and forecast and how it relates to the currency pair of the month, the Japanese Yen. 
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis looks at the underlying economic conditions of a financial instrument. It’s difficult to make trades strictly from a fundamental point of view. At the same time, it isn’t impossible. Most people who speculate from Fundamental data alone would call themselves investors or positions traders because there is no clear cut price-based exit point. Fundamental Analysis focuses around the Economic Calendar and Central Bank Announcements.
By studying the pattern or trends in interest rates, jobless claims, and treasury yields to name a few, you can get a grasp on the overall health of the economy and potential direction the currency of the economy will move to next. 
Fundamental Analysis and the JPY
From a Gross Domestic Product perspective, it is in the best interest of the Japanese economy to have the weakest Yen as reasonably possible. Because they are an export based economy, it only makes their goods more expensive to buy when other currencies fall against the Yen. 
The Bank of Japan took a drastic step last month in weakening their currency in a manner never before displayed. JPY has been on a constant fight to weaken their currency and improve their economy without the success they sought. Last month, the Minister of Finance & Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy all stated their commitment to weaken the currency and support their export based economy. Also, there is a big election coming up and the front runner, Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party is running a Pro-Quantitative Easy campaign which weakens a currency by increasing the supply dramatically.
This economy gives the Fundamental Analyst a lot to chew on. Japan is the third largest economy in the world with a currency changing election coming up centered around economic policy. 
Technical Analysis
The study of price action has become the mainstay of traders as the internet age has merged trading prices being recorded on charts in real time. Traders love technical analysis because of the argument that all news or fundamental analysis is priced into the chart. Price is also the best way to see the emotions and collective behavior behind price and price patterns. 
It’s easier to make trading decisions in terms of entries and exits from price action and the historical behavior pattern of prior traders. Technical analysis brings in the actions of people who moves price. Because the people who trade and move prices don’t always act rationally, it’s beneficial to study patterns of past behavior. 
Technical trading is like getting into the mind of the market to see what it may likely do next based on historical behavior as opposed to what it should do based on the news alone.
This also gives traders an unlimited of trading opportunities by studying different patterns across different time frames.
Technical Analysis and the JPY
The Japanese Yen has been on a historical bull run. This means that against every currency pair it trades against, they are all weakening in relation to the Japanese Yen over the last several years.
The USDJPY alone has seen a major move as have a lot of other common pairs against the JPY like the GPBJPY
            Learn Forex: Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis Showdown and
            the Yen GBPJPY Monthly Chart:
            Learn Forex: Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis Showdown and
            the Yen Many traders have put their hand on the hot stove of trying to buy the bottom of the Japanese Yen as it falls on the charts. There are green shoot that your attention should be glued to regarding this potential turn around.
            Learn Forex: Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis Showdown and
            the Yen If we look at a daily chart, we can see that a multi-year down trend line  has been broken. This means a little more than the 200 Day Moving Average because we have seen price break through that line multiple times only to break back down. 
The key here is to look for price to start making higher highs and higher lows so that we can see a multi-year trend reversal forming.

Thursday, November 22, 2012


最好的國民教育教材:「鏗鏘集」《湮沒的歷 史》


這,或許是正確,問題是連中共自己,也不想去面對由1949年至1982年的「歷史」,用盡方法把 他淡化抹除,那些滿有理想、要客觀公正教授國民教育的人,可以做到嗎?

A近日推薦港台「鏗鏘集」最新的一集《湮沒的歷史》,那是介紹中共如何抹除毛澤東倒行逆施,引發大躍進餓死千萬人那段歷史,看港台的節目介紹,認 為這是最好的國民教育材料:

「對於在上世紀30、40年代出生、長於農村的中國人來說,1958年至1962年是他們最痛苦的日子,要挨餓、被批鬥,不少沒餓死活下來的卻失 去至親,成為孤兒。


可是對新一代而言,這段日子有若虛構,1970年代出生的牛犇偶然發現了家鄉長輩在1960年的經歷,當年倖存者的回憶讓他分不清自己在寫歷史還 是小說。資深新華社記者楊­繼繩十多年來走訪全國各地和中共各級檔案館,希望透過不同報告,尋找當年他父親和數千萬人在大飢荒中餓死的原因和証 據。

近年有學者透過不同的人口數據,發現從1958年到1962年的死亡人數最少3600萬,比任何戰爭的死亡人數還要 多,是中國和人類史上的悲劇。這段讓人不堪回首的歷史,­仍然是公共輿論的禁忌,也沒有任何官方紀念碑。編導 : 尤翠茵」

A說,若香港真的要推國民教育,那就要教授中共企圖抹殺的歷史,那,不只是香港人應有之責,也作為中國人應有的責任,我們必須把歷史最真實一面保 留、教育下一代,不容執政掩飾、抹掉其犯下的歷史罪行,否則,就是愧對下一代。
 South Sudan Oil to Flow Again

On 14 November, South Sudan President Salva Kiir declared during a meeting he held in Juba with visiting Kenyan deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta that his country's oil production will be restarted next week after being suspended for nearly a year in the wake of deadlocked discussions with Khartoum on transit fees that South Sudan was to pay to use Sudan’s pipeline network. Kiir told journalists, "It is after the successful completion of negotiations with the Sudan (that we) will re-launch the transportation of oil next week."

The announcement represents a rare triumph of fiscal reality over politics, with both countries suffering massive revenue losses over the shutdown. Two months ago the two nations reached an agreement on the oil - driven primarily by the mounting economic difficulties both countries faced by an oil shutdown, which denied them billions of dollars in revenues. Under the tentative agreement, South Sudan will pay $9.10- $11 a barrel to export its crude through Sudan’s pipeline network. In addition, Juba will also pay a one-time fee of $3.08 billion to help Sudan overcome the loss of three quarters of its oil production due to South Sudan’s secession and subsequent vote for independence in an internationally supervised plebiscite in July 2011, which unfortunately lack bilateral agreements on oil and other issues and which in April 2012 subsequently led to a conflict over the disputed Abyei border area.

Juba was driven back to the negotiating table by the startling fact that, prior to the shutdown, oil accounted for 98% of South Sudan’s government income.

South Sudan Minister of Petroleum and Mining Stephen Dhieu after the Council of Ministers and National parliament ratified cooperation agreement signed in Addis-Ababa late last month instructed foreign oil companies and pipeline operators working in South Sudan to recommence the production of crude oil within production blocs 1, 2, 4, 7, and 5A.

Putting a spin on Juba’s fiscal hemorrhaging Dhieu said the nine-month shutdown "had served its purpose to protect the sovereignty and patrimony of the nation" and had ensured "once again that the South Sudanese People may exercise the right to enjoy the full benefits of their resources. We assume that in 90 days part of our oil will be getting its way to the international market. Not 100 percent but we will be able to produce and export the crude oil of South Sudan within three months."

Left unsaid was the fact that 90 percent of South Sudanese live below the poverty line on less than 50¢ a day.

The agreement represents a significant climb-down by both countries, as a year ago South Sudan offered to pay a mere 70¢ for each barrel sent through the Sudanese pipelines, but authorities in Khartoum were demanding $36 a barrel.

But there are still a few potential roadblocks, as after the accord was signed Sudanese oil minister Awad al-Jaz in Khartoum told South Sudan's oil Undersecretary Machar Aciek Ader Nyang that implementing the oil accord was contingent upon finalizing a deal on security arrangements. For his part Nyang told reporters upon arriving in Khartoum that South Sudan oil will reach global markets by year end and stressed the importance of cooperation between the two countries on areas related to oil.

Sudan’s Oil Ministry Secretary General Awad Abdel Fattah told reporters that South Sudan oil will arrive at Port Sudan terminals within two months if a deal on security arrangements agreement is reached.

And what is exactly meant by “security arrangements?” Sudan accuses South Sudan of supporting insurgents fighting its military forces in the border states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, a charge that Juba strongly denies.

Still, in an area hardly know as anything but a byword for poverty, the agreement is a hopeful sign that both Khartoum and Juba can manage to work together in a transit agreement that can only benefit them both.




当年《玛卡瑞纳》(Macarena)风靡世 界的情形再次 重现。韩国说唱歌手Psy的一首《江南Style》在YouTube创下了超过4亿次的点击量,卷席全世界各国的热门音乐排行榜。这也让 一种新的舞蹈动作 风靡一时——双手交叉作拿缰绳状,舞者好像正骑在一匹欢腾跳跃的马背上,并且嘴里还念念有词。一起来吧:“啊,性感的小姐/噢、噢、噢、 噢/哥是江南 Style!”(Eh sexy lady/Op op op op/Oppan Gangnam Style!)
对流行音乐史有所了解的乐迷们会发现,这一情形跟1996年西班牙歌手罗斯•德•里奥(Los Del Río)用自己特有的舞蹈动作表演的那首《玛卡瑞纳》异曲同工——他采用了一种非常复杂的类似旗语的动作,然后在三个过腿摔、旋转以及叫喊声中结束。 “啊,玛卡瑞纳!”这一生呐喊启发了5万名棒球迷在纽约的扬基体育场(Yankee Stadium)创下了集体舞蹈的世界纪录。今天的《江南Style》仅仅就是《玛卡瑞纳》的翻版吗?又或者说这位韩国明星在榜单上超越了欧美歌手有着更 深层次的意义——预示着流行音乐真正的全球化开始出现?
《江南Style》的演唱者Psy, 朴载相,是韩国K-pop界的领军人物。以西方流行音乐——舞曲、电音、嘻哈等为基础的K-pop,帮助韩国成为了亚洲流行音乐的中心,年轻人们欢乐地享 受着国家经济转型的成果,就像上世纪50年代的美国年轻人那样。在不到5年的时间里,韩国在世界音乐市场上的排名已经从23位上升到11 位。
许多国家都有自己本地的传统流行音乐,诸如德国的Schlager,中国的广东话歌曲等等。其中一些非常有地域影响力,比如韩国的K- pop或者巴 尔干半岛的turbo-folk;还有一些则更为本土,比如日本的涉谷系。但无论如何,其中有一股力量一枝独秀。这属于所谓的“英文文化 圈”。
提 到流行音乐,英文歌手统治着整个电视广播,在国际舞台上让其他语种的竞争者显得那么微不足道。美国出品占据了大部分市场,紧随其后的是英 国和加拿大。英国 唱片去年的销售量是全世界的13%;而其中2%的成绩来自阿黛尔(Adele)一人。在音乐方面来说,英国依旧一个强国。
强大自然滋生傲慢。英文文化圈对于其他外语流行音乐的态度是轻蔑的,习惯性地将之视为低层次的娱乐:你看那些法国人,和他们那些滑稽的 大蒜味儿歌 手。现实就是,在优越感十足的英国人眼里,曾经为我们带来瑞典著名的阿巴乐队(Abba)的欧洲歌唱大赛(Eurovision Song Contest)也未能幸免地沦为与粗劣的欧洲流行音乐为伍。最严重的一次出现在2008年在贝尔格莱德举行的那一届大赛,BBC现已退休的解说员对巴尔 干半岛最著名的音乐家布雷高维克(Goran Bregovíc)充满了不屑,评论他的表现跟在餐馆里卖艺的街头艺人差不多。
而德国最成功的音乐人却大胆地涉足了这块传统的敌对地盘。56岁的赫伯特•格朗内梅尔(Herbert Grönemeyer)在他的祖国声名显赫。他1984年的专辑《4630 Bochum》连续79周出现在排行榜上,并且战胜迈克尔•杰克逊(Michael Jackson)的《颤栗》(Thriller) 成为第一。他2002年的专辑《Mensch》成为最畅销的德语唱片。然而在英语世界,格朗内梅尔却几乎没什么名气; 有人大概还能模糊地记得的就是他曾经在1981年的电影《从海底出击》(Das Boot)里扮演过一个角色。

这位致力于管弦流行乐的歌手,人称来自威斯特 伐利亚的斯科 特•沃克(Scott Walker,美国传奇歌手),希望用他的新英文专辑《I Walk》改变目前这种悲凉的境地。这并不是他第一次想要在德国之外的世界寻找知音的尝试。另一张之前发行的英文专辑,由英国摇滚乐队范•德•格拉夫发电 机(Van der Graaf Generator)的成员彼得•汉米尔(Peter Hammill) 制作,在加拿大取得了很好的成绩。之后他请来XTC乐队的安迪•帕特里奇(Andy Partridge)制作的另一张专辑表现就没有那么好了。
由格朗内梅尔自己的厂牌推出的《I Walk》,得到了英文世界的重量级人物的支持:英国乐队安东尼和约翰逊(Antony and the Johnsons)的博诺(Bono)和安东尼•赫加蒂(Antony Hegarty)加盟了这个专辑。“像欧洲大陆上所有的孩子一样,我在英美音乐的陪伴下长大。”他说,“我13岁的时候组了一个乐队,我们演唱 《Doors》、《Cream》、《Hendrix》还有《Colosseum》。”
他认为,德国人对音乐采取的是一种分析方式——“因为我们的大脑更为理性。”“这在英国会更为轻松一些,因为人们欣赏的是旋律,是音乐 的情绪,而不 是不断地分析歌词。”这位在伦敦的亲英派音乐人这么说道。“对于一个歌手而言,首先语言没有德语那么多的喉音和断音,此外,对音乐的感受 更多地来自内 心。”
德国在去年赶超英国,成为世界第三大音乐市场;继意大利经济在1987年超过英国之后,这又是一次日耳曼的大超越。“在统一之后的20 年间,德国的 音乐如今已经变得更为强大。” 格朗内梅尔说,“由于战争的缘故,我们错失了很多。在很长的一段时间内,我们都不太敢在国内演唱(西方流行音乐),因此我们有了许多Schlager。”
Schlager ——一种在上世纪60年代出现的风格感伤的民谣,深受各个阶层人士的欢迎——是德国人对英美流行乐发展壮大的一个回应。它一直广为流行, 但是也仅仅是德国 音乐市场的一部分,这个市场又加入了说唱、摇滚、舞曲等等。“你会发现其实流行和摇滚是非常英式的。”格朗内梅尔说,“对于这一点我们很 轻松面对。就像意 大利面:你可以做出来一种德国式的意大利面,并且在一定程度上可能还取得了成功,但是你依旧不得不承认,它无论如何还是一道意大利美 食。”
越来越多的德国人会购买德国艺术家的音乐。根据国际唱片业协会(International Federation of the Phonographic Industry)的统计,这一比例在过去十年中上升了6%。而在韩国,这一比例则为13%。这一数字仅仅是对早已缩水的唱片销售的统计,而不包括数字音 乐的销售。但是这也能显示出在英美世界之外的音乐市场正在进一步发展壮大。
这一进程会让流行音乐的世界多样化更为显著吗?事实并非如此。一首外语歌曲能够挤入英美排行榜的现象仍旧是凤毛麟角。Psy透露《江南 Style》 的后续将会采用英文。但是我们已经看到了流行音乐的全球化,英语世界的艺人领衔,但被其他很多非英语地区的歌手所接纳和消化。《江南Style》的低音炮 和四个重拍的节奏,是他们的通用语言,迈阿密派对上的大学生们和首尔俱乐部的年轻人们在这一方面交流顺畅。随着数字音乐势力的强大和因特 网的全球扩张,各 个地区流行音乐的元素也会越来越一致。这一作骑马状的舞蹈并非只是昙花一现:它让世界更平了。

Spanish Government , Like Other Governments, Is In Love With Properties

 Idiocy in Spain: Bank Proposal to Build More Houses, Issue More Mortgages, Despite Massive Inventory and Enormous Drop in Sales

Idiocy is running rampant in Spain. The Association of Spanish Banks (AEB) thinks the solution to the debt crisis is to build more houses in spite of the fact sales are down by as much as 85%.

Via Google translate, please consider Nonresident aliens buy 85% fewer homes than before the crisis.

    Throughout the first half of this year only 1,363 homes were sold to foreign residents in Spain, far from the 9407 transactions in the same period of 2006, before the bursting of the housing bubble.
    As pointed out shortly after the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, the government wants to dispose of the stock of unsold homes, an issue that the Ministry of Public Works had already made ​​clear in the Plan for Infrastructure, Transport and Housing (PITVI ) 2012-2024. This reflects that "demand by foreigners is critical to recovery and sanitation sector", which has barely managed to reduce their unsold stock in 8000 from their peak levels in 2009 to about 680,000 homes.

Brief Summary

    The ministry of public works says "demand by foreigners is critical to recovery"
    Foreign demand is down by 85%
    There are 680,000 unsold homes

Permanent Residence Offered to Foreign Home Buyers

Also via Google translate, El Economista reports The government granted a residence permit to foreigners who buy homes of more than 160,000 euros

    The government granted a residence permit in Spain to foreigners who purchase a home whose price exceeds 160,000 euros, as announced by the Secretary of State for Trade, Jaime García-Legaz.
    "In a few weeks it will launch a reform of the Aliens Act for granting residence permits to foreigners in Spain who acquire a property from a price level [of 160,000 euros]"
    The aim would be to reduce the "stock" of existing homes in Spain, where there currently "is not much purchasing power due to lack of credit. "

Magic Formula

In light of the massive overhang in unsold inventory of homes, the position of the Association of Spanish Banks wins the blue ribbon for stupidity.

Please consider "More Brick", also via translation, this time from El Blog Salmon.

    I said a few days ago and now I repeat: we have learned absolutely nothing from this crisis. Michael Martin, president of the Spanish Association of Banks (AEB), said today that the solution to all our problems in Spain is very simple: build more houses and provide more mortgages to keep families were rendered homeless.
    As they read. The magic formula to end the crisis of this man and, therefore, the association president, is simply to follow step by step the same manual that has led to the declining economic situation: for all credit and brick. Martin, at a time of unprecedented lighting, dares to ensure that this would be the right way to end the social exclusion of our country.
    Not if it happen to you but I read these things and I have stupid face: They ignore that in Spain there are between 700,000 and a million empty properties. That of "housing never goes down" is now part of our past. The Spanish have opened my eyes and now only see a situation of oversupply estate brutal. People do not want houses that are waiting for prices to sink and touch ground .
    And if that was not enough he finishes calling back the debt. For years private debt has grown at an annual rate of 10% above the GDP to go from 100% to 200% of GDP between 2001 and 2008. We brought money of the future without shame for the sole purpose of being rich in this. Currently, a problem suffered very serious private debt and financial leverage out of this situation will be slow and painful.
    Inflate the housing bubble again is not the answer, however much certain stakeholders are mouth-watering thinking that cheap credit flowing again through the arteries of the system.

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中国楼市充满欺诈,很多人都看不懂。中国一线城市的土地价格在全世界都找不到,可以说是在地球上前无古人后无来 者;就连三四线城市宁 波、无锡、苏州、长沙、南昌、合肥的土地价格按美元折算最高的时候高过纽约、东京、伦敦、巴黎,凭什么?凭的是 中共政府要赚钱,就这么简单。中国一线城市一栋独栋别墅的价格可以买下纽约、伦敦、东京等城市五到六栋同样的别墅,中国的土地稀缺?我的天。
最近,我查了一下数据,二手房挂牌量暴增,成交量暴增。深圳二手房在新房成交量100套 左右,二手房成交一般为200套左右,现在新房成交量依然100套左右, 而二手房现在一天成交389338套,接近翻倍;深圳二手房挂牌量暴增12万 套,平时只有8万套左右。北京仅仅只是新浪的数据二手房挂牌量从50万套 暴增至84万套,上海二手房从31万套暴增至41万 套。北京有报道说,有些区域的经纪人这几天一般会在头天傍晚五、六点左右去抢排办理二手房过户的号,近几日办公时间都达到14个 小时了,有些区域则是凌晨去排队,以前则是当天早上去排号就可以。真火热呀。
这种现象的发生是在18大前后,究竟是何原因?在天涯上有一份热帖,好奇的网友把全国 这个现象做了一个对比,不仅仅只是一线城市也有二三线城市也做了分析,结果也是二手房挂牌量在暴增。这是网址:
早不跑晚不跑,这个时候来跑应该是有原因的。既不能走老路,也不能走斜路,这句话一语破的,现在无路可走了。这个 对楼市的信心打击是毁灭性的。因为房价涨到顶后,一定是毁灭性的暴跌,不可能维持 在现有水平。1859年,石油财富让西方国家产生无数的暴发户,只要粘上石油的边几乎个个成为百万富 翁,人人坚信不疑,石油价格随着人类的发展只会涨价不会下跌,结果吸引很多人和资金一股脑的搞石油,石油价格从1美 元一桶直奔10美元,一年涨了10倍。到了1860年, 原油一路狂跌,最后跌倒10美分一桶,一年跌去20倍,油钱比桶更便宜, 千万人开始破产跳楼跑路。从而诞生了人类的第一次石油危机。道理很简单,买的人多了,就产生价格泡沫,而泡沫一定会破。
1869年,被马克吐温称为西方的镀金年代,结果发生的是黄金投机风潮,黄金价格遭到 爆炒,导致了全球证券市场的崩溃,引发一系列连锁效应,为长期的经济萧条埋下了祸根,所以,西方人至今不买黄金。
1992年,日本房价泡沫破灭,后来,海部俊树首相说,日本宁肯把色情产业列为支柱产 业,再也不搞房地产。
中国在盛传30年只有房价没有跌。他娘的,2008年 全国房价大跌成那个鬼样,富力、珠江、恒大等华南五虎全部面临破产,他们都忘记啦?中国人这么不长记性吗?不是,他们是为了炒 作,为了欺骗,为了把老百姓 的血汗钱吸光,才如此荒唐把一个房价炒成了当年的原油和黄金,于是,他们专门编制一个神话,只有中国房价永远不跌。现在,我可以 骄傲的宣布,这个神话即将 破灭。中国的住宅说他值钱是值钱,但是,一旦风暴来临,可能就会变的一钱不值。当年沿海泡沫大家有目共睹,一栋50万 的别墅,最后只能养猪,而且,养了16年至20年。
从二手房的挂牌量暴增可以看出,炒家已经在出逃。鄂尔多斯跌了70%,温州很多楼盘也 跌去50%。炒吧。中国只有两条出路,一条是人民币一钱不值,一条是房价泡沫破灭。选择吧, 不走老路,就是不再搞房价泡沫,不走斜路是什么,我不知道。


“拿起武器,公民们!祖国正面临危险!”法国正在失去AAA评级。如果法国人能够直面现实,他们应当抓住这次被踢出“AAA俱乐部”的机会, 好好理清思路。

穆迪(Moody's)于周一晚下调了对法国的AAA评级,标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)也曾于今年1月做出类似调整。下调的主要原因在于,法国“正逐渐而持续地丧失经济竞争力,劳动力、商品及服务市场长期僵化”。这种评价的确 尖锐,但法国人显然不是头一次听到。

法国的对照物是德国,但大多数对比指标都指向他们不希望看到的方向。法国人对他们的工业引以为豪(合情合理),但花旗(Citi)的研究显 示,在法国,工业总增加值占比在欧元发行后下滑了逾5个百分点,至12.5%,而在德国却上升了1个百分点。法国企业的员工成本相当于利润的 三分之二,德国企业的这一比例则为60%。然而,这种现实并未体现在股市回报中——德国和法国的股票5年来的表现大致相同。

法国并非注定要作欧元区的“千年老二”。它拥有伟大的公司——奢侈品行业的路威酩轩(LVMH)、能源行业的道达尔(Total)、制药行业 的赛诺菲(Sanofi)均是各自领域的佼佼者,航空航天行业的欧洲航空防务与航天集团(EADS)以及机械行业的施耐德电气 (Schneider Electric)也竞争力十足。此外,外部人士发现了法国人似乎未能发现的价值。伦敦和纽约的主动型投资者已在积累航空航天集团赛峰(Safran)和 食品公司达能(Danone)的股份。法国股现在可能物超所值。

面对一份关于法国工业缺乏竞争力的报告,法国社会党政府的回应是推出总额达200亿欧元的企业税收减免。这种做法是把钱浪费在了错误的地方。 如果法国准备阻挡其竞争地位和总体信用评级的下滑趋势,就必须削减劳动力成本,而不是削减税收。这一点关系重大:法国明年将发行1700亿欧 元的债券,而其借贷成本肯定会上升。虽然祖国尚未面临危险,但好日子却是一去不复返了。
Going Bananas Over US Housing

Sorry, But You Have To Look At This Chart Of Housing Starts Going Totally Bananas

One more time. Let's just gawk at the crazy acceleration of housing starts this month.

Remember, this is the annualized pace of new homes being built. We were once told a story about how there were so many empty homes, we wouldn't need to build new ones for years. Now people are talking about this accelerating to a pace where new home construction and attendant businesses could add one whole percentage point per quarter to GDP.

What's crazy is that this was due to be a down month due to Hurricane Sandy.

And for an even more ridiculous look, here's the year-over-year change in starts. It's just shooting off like a rocket.

Lenny Kravitz As Marvin Gaye?

        Kravitz Marvin Gaye

Lenny Kravitz has lined up a starring role in a Marvin Gaye biopic, The Evening Standard reports.

The project is directed by Julian Temple, known for his documentary "London: The Modern Babylon" as well as "Absolute Beginners." Temple also has plenty of experience with bringing music to the big screen, having directed a number of movies about the Sex Pistols.

The Gaye movie will center on the soul singer's later years. Gaye, as NME notes, battled alcoholism and nasty tax issues while living in London. Though his situation improved once he left the town, he was fatally shot by his father in Los Angeles.

Kravitz has kept busy mixing music and acting, appearing as Cinna in "The Hunger Games" and taking up "Negrophilia," an album he started years ago.

Iran Starting  a Fire At Saudi Border To Save Hamas From Israel/America ?

Iran Accuses Saudi Arabia of Exploring for Oil in Prohibited Border Region

Political relations throughout the Middle East seem to be worsening on an almost daily basis. One situation of particular concern is the deteriorating relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The Shi’ite Muslims of Iran are separated from the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia by just 250km of Gulf waters, and after months of squabbling the latest episode has seen Iran accuse Saudi Arabia of exploring for oil and gas in these prohibited border regions.
Ramin Mehmanparast, a spokesman from the Iranian Foreign Ministry, mentioned that “apparently Saudi Arabia has taken action for exploration activities in prohibited border areas.” He advised that “the necessary notices were given, and our country's point of view and our commitment to border agreements were conveyed to the Saudi ambassador in Tehran.”

Just last week Abdullah al-Mualimi, the Saudi UN ambassador, wrote to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to complain of “Iran's breaches of the official conventions and treaties between itself and Saudi Arabia.” He was referring to the incident when two Iranian naval ships intercepted a clearly marked vessel belonging to Saudi Aramco.
As always in arguments, neither side agrees with the accounts of the other, and so Mehmanparast claimed that “the violation that has taken place was on the part of Saudi companies and if this issue is to be followed up, they must be questioned. The discussion about water border limits between Iran and Saudi Arabia is subject to international laws and documents between the two countries.”
Earlier in the month Iran detained a Saudi Arabian fishing boat that had entered its southern waters, and the month before the Saudi’s arrested 15 Iranians trying to smuggle themselves into Saudi Arabia via boat.
The Secret War Between China and the US In Africa

In the struggle to secure energy resources, the great powers consider all states to be fair game. Indeed, this is precisely what characterizes American foreign policy in the modern era. When it comes to economic and geopolitical interests, Washington seldom differentiates between democratic leaders and despots, especially when those interests involve oil. Currently, the stakes are high in the rush to secure oil resources and nowhere is this more evident than in the Sino-American rivalry in Africa. Both states are competing to secure their share of oil supplies in order to quench their addiction to the coveted ‘black gold.’

One of Washington’s primary energy security concerns has been to diversify its sources of foreign oil. During the 1970s oil crisis, the United States imported one-third of its petroleum. Now, it imports approximately 11.4 million barrels per day of petroleum (which includes crude oil and petroleum products), amounting to 45 percent of all petroleum consumed in America [1]. While most of its foreign oil comes from the western hemisphere, a sizable portion comes from Africa and the Persian Gulf [2]. Despite the fact that America’s reliance on foreign oil has decreased since its peak in 2005, it is still vulnerable to supply disruptions, oil price shocks and OPEC supply squeezing. For Washington, the need to decrease its vulnerability to foreign oil is a principle national security interest, and the solution lies in diversifying imports away from overreliance on any one region.

West African oil remains strategically important for U.S. policy makers, especially since it provides an alternative to Persian Gulf oil. West Africa is also geographically closer, making transportation less costly than oil from the Persian Gulf. The high-quality sweet crude that is produced by the Gulf of Guinea states is crucial to the U.S. market. As such, oil corporations are doing whatever they can to secure this important hydrocarbon and Washington is fervently promoting free trade in Africa in order to make it easier for them.

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to two of the largest oil-producing states: Nigeria and Angola. These two states account for 53 percent and 26 percent of total U.S. petroleum imports from Sub-Saharan Africa respectively [3]. Thus, it is no surprise that the two states also receive the largest share of U.S. security assistance to Africa.

In order to boost its influence in Africa and secure the loyalty of governments, the U.S. has provided military arms and developed military training programs with individual African governments. To increase its military presence, it has acquired basing rights and access to airfields in Djibouti, Uganda, Mali, Senegal and Gabon, along with port facilities in Morocco and Tunisia. In addition, it has also expanded its covert intelligence operations across Africa in the name of combatting terrorism [4]. Yet, these operations also serve another purpose. By expanding its military presence in Africa, Washington is reminding its rivals that it is both willing and able to respond to threats to its strategic interests, the likes of which include the unimpeded flow of African oil.

In 2007, the U.S. African Command (AFRICOM) was established as the ninth of the Unified Combatant Commands under the supervision of the U.S. Department of Defence (DoD). The alleged purpose is to oversee American military operations on the African continent in order to enhance the stability of the region and to promote U.S. national security objectives. Many critics of AFRICOM, including energy security expert Michael T. Klare, believe there is a direct relationship between the existence of AFRICOM and America’s interest in African oil [5].

There is a parallel between America’s increased military presence in Africa and its military expansion into the Persian Gulf since the establishment of the Carter Doctrine. While this endeavour is noticeably more limited in Africa and does not involve any significant oil-for-security arrangements- at least, not yet- there is no doubt that America would respond with force if oil supplies were threatened. The difference is in style, not substance; America seeks a more subtle presence in order to engage in rapid combat and covert operations, when necessary. This operational capacity is equal parts the U.S. bending to the strategic realities of the 21stcentury and a response to African governments, for obvious historical reasons, not welcoming permanent military bases on their soil.

There may be another, often overlooked, purpose of AFRICOM. The presence of China in Africa is creating some concern for American officials. Beijing is competing with Washington for both the loyalty of African governments and the steady supply of African oil. There is a growing sentiment in Washington that China’s presence in Africa could challenge U.S. security interests now and in the years to come. China’s unconditional financial aid and its steady flow of cheap goods to African states (in exchange for oil contracts) have often made it a more appealing trading partner than America. Indeed, a 2005 DoD report indicated that China’s need to forge close ties with African governments to secure energy supplies could lead to ‘a more activist [Chinese] military presence abroad’ [6]. In this regard, AFRICOM would monitor Chinese activity and contain any Chinese incursion into American zones of interest by flexing America’s naval presence.

The stakes for Beijing, however, seem to be greater for three reasons. First, China has an annual GDP growth rate of 7.4 percent. To sustain this, the Chinese economy relies heavily on the consumption of oil. It is constantly seeking new sources of oil to meet its domestic demand, but its African oil supplies are indispensable. Second, China imports more from oil from Africa than America does (30 percent vs. 20 percent) [7]. China’s oil imports from Africa will likely grow to be bigger than America’s in the decades to come, and China is expected to take America’s spot as the world’s biggest oil importer very soon. By 2020, China will import approximately 65 percent of its oil [8]. Lastly, China is not a newcomer to Africa. In the 1960s and 1970s, it supported many national liberation movements, provided a large share of arms to post-independence governments and invested heavily in national infrastructure projects [9]. In this sense, Beijing perceives its presence in Africa as a continuation of its legacy and as an important geopolitical interest on the road to major power status.

However, Africa might not provide the most secure alternative to Persian Gulf oil. Africa’s production capacity is more limited than that of the Persian Gulf, and it also has fewer proven reserves. In terms of aggregate global oil production, Africa is still lagging behind other major crude oil-producing regions [10]. If we assume that ‘peak oil’ estimates are accurate, then (according to BP’s reserves-to-production ratio) Sub-Saharan Africa, as a whole, has an oil-producing capacity that will end by 2030. This would leave only Nigeria and Sudan as major oil-producing states in the region (of course, this assumes that production will remain constant and that no new reserves will be discovered) [11].

In addition, Africa’s political environment can be as unstable as the Persian Gulf. Internal instability, the rise of transnational terrorist networks, military coups, civil strife, endemic corruption and the conflict-stricken Niger Delta all pose significant problems for business operations in the African continent.

America must show restraint in its expansion into Africa. While a military conflict with China over access to African oil may seem presently unrealistic- especially given America and China’s mutual economic dependence- future regional developments and the further militarization of the region could shift the Sino-American rivalry into a more adversarial direction [12]. The ‘military security paradox’ is an important lesson to be learned by the great powers. Militarizing a region in the pursuit of regional stability and security can often have the opposite effect. Only time will tell if Washington and Beijing heed this warning.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Israel's Iron Dome Missile Shield

ron dome
1. Enemy fires missile or artillery shell
2. Projectile tracked by radar. Data relayed to battle management and control unit
3. Data analysed and target co-ordinates sent to the missile firing unit
4. Missile is fired at enemy projectile
The Iron Dome has its roots in the 2006 conflict Israel fought with Hezbollah, the Islamist group based in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah launched thousands of rockets, causing huge damage and killing dozens of Israelis.
A year later, Defence Minister Amir Peretz announced the state-run defence firm Rafael Advanced Defense Systems would develop a new missile defence shield.
The system took years to develop and came on line in early 2011.
It was tested in combat for the first time in April 2011, when it knocked out a missile fired at the southern city of Beersheba.
        soldiers take cover as an Israeli missile is launched from the
        Iron Dome defence missile system in the southern Israeli city of
        Ashdod, November 18 Each missile costs $60,000 to launch
During the current Gaza crisis, the system has been repeatedly praised by the Israeli military.
By Saturday evening the shield had intercepted 245 rockets from Gaza in three days, according to the army.
Roughly 90% of the attempted interceptions were successful, the army said.
The latest Iron Dome battery to be deployed is in Tel Aviv, the commercial capital, which was previously thought to be out of range of rockets from Gaza.
But Gazan militants appear to have upgraded their arsenal, and the city has been repeatedly targeted in the first days of the latest bout of conflict.
Reuters news agency reported that the Tel Aviv battery was called into operation shortly after it was installed, knocking a rocket out of the sky as it was on its final approach.
The news agency said the Iron Dome's range appeared to have been tested to the limit by the Tel Aviv attack.
The Iron Dome is part of a huge range of missile defence systems operating over Israel, costing billions of dollars.
The Americans set aside more than $200m (£125m) to help Israel pay for the system, but concerns over its cost have persisted.
The system uses radar to track incoming rockets, and then fires two interceptor missiles to knock them out.
Each Iron Dome battery costs about $50m to install. So far, there are five batteries in operation, but officials plan to have eight more by next year.
Each Tamir interceptor missile costs roughly $60,000.
The shield's makers say it is cost-effective because the radar technology differentiates between missiles likely to hit built-up areas and those missing their target. Only those heading towards cities are targeted and shot down.
This still means that as of Saturday night Israel had spent roughly $29m on interceptor missiles in three days.
James Bond Goes To Afghanistan


邦德影星克雷格 邦德影星克雷格在《天降杀机》阿富汗首映式上突然出现,给当地英国驻军官兵带来惊喜。
主演詹姆士·邦德系列影片的当红英国男星丹尼尔·克雷格(Daniel Craig)出人意料来到英军驻阿富汗大本营,给正准备观看《天降杀机》(Skyfall)的官兵们带来无比惊喜。

克雷格在营地中全程由准尉英厄姆(Rob Ingham)陪同;这位银幕上的007号特工参观了营地设施,并在电影放映前为官兵们简单介绍了最新一部邦德片的一些背景资讯
Israelis Cheering On Their Army And Gilad Sharon Thinks Gaza Should Be Crushed Once And For All

Crowds Of Israelis Are Showing Up To Cheer On The Iron Dome System

A rocket is launched from a new Israeli anti-missile system known as Iron Dome

There is a new attraction in Tel Aviv, drawing crowds of cheering supporters. It is Israel's fifth Iron Dome battery, whose deployment was accelerated at the weekend to position it in the south of the city to shoot down long-range rockets from Gaza.

It has had considerable success. Two rockets aimed at Tel Aviv on Sunday were shot down by Iron Dome, and its vapour trails can be seen in the sky over southern Israel every day.

But only about a third of the 1,000-plus rockets fired from Gaza since the start of Operation Pillar of Defence have been intercepted. And it was disclosed on Monday that three Israelis killed in a rocket attack in Kiryat Malachi – the only Israeli casualties so far in the war – died after Iron Dome malfunctioned.

The anti-missile system was first deployed in April 2011, after more than three years in development. Much of its funding came from the United States. The five batteries – each with three missile launchers and a heavily computerised mobile control unit – are currently all operating in southern Israel, with the capability of intercepting rockets from distances of up to 50 miles.

The defence minister, Ehud Barak, described Iron Dome's achievements as "unparalleled" on Sunday, but added: "We need 13 batteries to cover the entire area of the country from threats of short- and medium-range missiles."

According to a senior official at Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, the Israeli defence company that developed Iron Dome, "the problem is that there aren't enough of these things".

The official, who declined to be named, said the system's successes were creating an additional problem in the minds of Israelis. "People see [Iron Dome] as a saviour. We have warned that the danger is that people feel so secure with Iron Dome that they don't take security precautions when they hear sirens. [Instead] they film the rockets on their mobile phones."

Rafael is developing a new anti-missile system, called David's Sling, which is designed to intercept long-range missiles fired from as far away as Iran. Two-thirds of its funding is coming from the US and the rest from Israel. It is expected to be operational by the end of 2013.

Amos Harel, defence correspondent for Haaretz newspaper, said that in any future conflict Israel may be forced to choose between deploying its anti-missile systems to protect civilians or to protect its strategic assets and infrastructure. "If the enemy is trying to hit air force bases, is the most important thing to protect attack capabilities or population bases?" he said.

Israeli generals, he said, acknowledged that defence systems were a "short blanket", unable to cover everything.

GILAD SHARON: Israel Needs To Crush Gaza Once And For All
Gaza Iron

Gilad Sharon, the son of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, takes a hard line in the Jerusalem Post with respect to the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza:

Israel needs to completely wipe out Gaza's infrastructure, he says--gas, power, water--or else re-occupy the territory.

Otherwise, Sharon argues, this conflict will end the way other skirmishes have: With a lame "cease-fire" agreement that allows Hamas to continue to blast Israel with the occasional rocket.

Israel shouldn't have to tolerate that, Sharon says. So it's time for decisive action.

It's worth noting that Sharon's views are considered extreme, and the Jerusalem Post is being attacked for publishing them.

Why do our citizens have to live with rocket fire from Gaza while we fight with our hands tied? Why are the citizens of Gaza immune? If the Syrians were to open fire on our towns, would we not attack Damascus? If the Cubans were to fire at Miami, wouldn’t Havana suffer the consequences? That’s what’s called “deterrence” – if you shoot at me, I’ll shoot at you. There is no justification for the State of Gaza being able to shoot at our towns with impunity. We need to flatten entire neighborhoods in Gaza. Flatten all of Gaza. The Americans didn’t stop with Hiroshima – the Japanese weren’t surrendering fast enough, so they hit Nagasaki, too.

There should be no electricity in Gaza, no gasoline or moving vehicles, nothing. Then they’d really call for a ceasefire.

Were this to happen, the images from Gaza might be unpleasant – but victory would be swift, and the lives of our soldiers and civilians spared.

IF THE government isn’t prepared to go all the way on this, it will mean reoccupying the entire Gaza Strip. Not a few neighborhoods in the suburbs, as with Cast Lead, but the entire Strip, like in Defensive Shield, so that rockets can no longer be fired.

There is no middle path here – either the Gazans and their infrastructure are made to pay the price, or we reoccupy the entire Gaza Strip.
Motown Beryy Gordy Honored By HistoryMakers

By Geoff Brown, Chicago Tribune reporter

Berry Gordy Jr. always took the unconventional route to success — whether in creating a record company, producing movies or facing a traffic stop, he told an audience Saturday night at the Art Institute of Chicago.

As a child, Gordy said, he couldn't do his ABCs from A to Z, but he could reel them off backward. This came in handy many years later when a Beverly Hills policeman pulled him over, primed to arrest him for drunken driving. The officer ordered Gordy to walk a straight line and touch his nose. He passed. Then he was asked to recite the alphabet. "Forward or backward?" Gordy offered. The cop answered, "Backward, wiseguy." Gordy ultimately drove away free.

The story was among many that the ebullient founder of the Motown recording empire recounted during a fundraising gala for The HistoryMakers. Founded in 1999 by Julieanna Richardson, the nonprofit, Chicago-based HistoryMakers has created a digital archive of oral histories documenting African-American achievement in the U.S. and also conducts educational programs. Journalist Gwen Ifill interviewed Gordy for the event, which will air on PBS in early 2013.

Ifill coaxed Gordy, who will turn 83 on Nov. 28, into playing "Berry's Boogie," a piano tune he said he composed at age 7. Accompanying the Motown mogul was a live band featuring "American Idol" music director Ray Chew on keyboards.

Gordy noted that even after his triumphs in music, doors to other projects didn't open easily. He had to pay Paramount Pictures to complete the hit 1972 movie "Lady Sings the Blues" because, he said, the studio had budgeted only $500,000 for a black film. "This is not a black film, it's a film with black stars," Gordy told the studio, to no avail. He paid Paramount $2 million, he said.

The evening was not all about entertainment. Guest speaker the Rev. Jesse Jackson remarked that Gordy once took care of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s payroll during a rough time for the civil rights leader's organization in 1965. Former Motown executive Suzanne de Passe said Gordy "was way ahead of his time in putting women in positions of authority."

Audience members were treated to a performance by two cast members of Gordy's upcoming Broadway show, "Motown: The Musical." The scene, he said, re-enacted Gordy (portrayed by Brandon Victor Dixon) and Diana Ross (played by Valisia LeKae) falling in love in Paris. The song: Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell's "You're All I Need to Get By."

Among relatives in attendance were Gordy's son Stefan "Redfoo" Gordy of the group LMFAO and daughter Hazel Gordy. From the Motown roster present and past, singer Kem teamed up with Valerie Simpson (last year's HistoryMakers honoree) to perform the Jackson 5 tune "I'll Be There." Another guest performer was Janelle Monae, who sang the Jackson 5's "I Want You Back." Others who took their bows: Claudette Robinson, an original member of Smokey Robinson and the Miracles; early Motown artists the Velvelettes; Scherrie Payne, a onetime member of the Supremes; and her sister, singer Freda Payne.

The spry Gordy left the stage emulating the dance routine from LMFAO's 2011 music video for "Party Rock Anthem."

Sunday, November 18, 2012

France Falling

Mainstream media offers little on the stunning collapse of real estate sales in France, notably Paris and Ile-de-France. Via Google translate, please consider Real Estate November 2012: figures for the month. Here are a few translate-unedited snips.
2012 will remain a very bad year for real estate professionals. In this comprehensive figures on the property market in November 2012, discover the sharp decline in real estate sales in Paris and Ile-de-France.

Even in Paris, it becomes difficult to sell a property

Notaries in Paris / Ile-de-France note that even in their region very attractive it becomes difficult to sell a property . Between June and August 2012, it has sold "only" 35,000 existing homes, or 19% compared to the same period in 2011.

Through the preliminary contracts, that is to say, the sales agreement signed but the sale is not yet final, notaries noted an accentuation of the decrease in sales in September 2012. To believe the figures MeilleursAgents which figure barometer advanced compared to the figures of notaries, there are currently -30 to -40% of sales in Paris and the Ile-de-France.

Borrowing rates are low, borrowers are scarce

The mortgage rates continue to fall slightly in November 2012 . That makes 8 months in a row that interest rates fall. Loans for short periods have the largest declines compared to last month.

On loans granted in October 2012, the average rate is 3.37% and the duration of payments is 207 months.

Despite these cheap rates, mortgage demand plunges more now. The Observatory Housing Credit CSA announces -45.8% in October 2012 compared to the same month of the previous year. This accentuates the fall of -30.5% of mortgages in the first 9 months of 2012.

Starts of new homes in the third quarter of 2012 recorded their lowest level since 1998

Only 66,932 new dwelling units have been started in the third quarter of 2012. This is the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2012. This represents a decrease of 17.3% compared to the same period in 2011.

VAT at 10% instead of 7% for the building in 2014?

The maintenance and renovation of housing more than two years are subject to reduced VAT under certain conditions. After passage of the VAT rate in the building from 5.5% to 7% in 2012, the government expects an increase in the VAT rate to 10% through.
Blazing Stupidity

Hiking the VAT in face of falling demand is blazing stupidity. Apparently a VAT hike is an expectation rather than a done deal, but given other examples of stunning stupidity from France, including tax hikes and the Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" one should expect no less from French president Francois Hollande.
Motown Historic Building To Be Torn Down

( Associated Press ) - FILE - In this Aug. 19, 1966 file photo, members of the Motown singing group The Supremes are shown. Diana Ross, lead singer, is on top of the slide, Mary Wilson, hangs on the ladder, right and Florence Ballard, stands under the slide. Ross and the Supremes lived in Detroit’s Brewster projects. Mayor Dave Bing has called a news conference Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012, to announce plans for the long-vacant projects, which he said in March that he wanted to demolish by year’s end.
  • ( Associated Press ) - FILE -
                In this Aug. 19, 1966 file photo, members of the Motown
                singing group The Supremes are shown. Diana Ross, lead
                singer, is on top of the slide, Mary Wilson, hangs on
                the ladder, right and Florence Ballard, stands under the
                slide. Ross and the Supremes lived in Detroit’s Brewster
                projects. Mayor Dave Bing has called a news conference
                Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012, to announce plans for the
                long-vacant projects, which he said in March that he
                wanted to demolish by year’s end.
  • (Detroit News, Max Ortiz/
                Associated Press ) - Detroit Mayor Dave Bing announces
                the demolition of the Frederick Douglass Homes housing
                project on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012 in Detroit. Bing says
                police and firefighters frequently respond to reports of
                crime and arson in the complex, and that demolishing it
                will allow scant city emergency resources to be deployed
                elsewhere. He said that the yearlong demolition and
                cleanup will be paid for by a $6.5 million federal
                Housing and Urban Development grant. The city has no set
                plans for redevelopment of the complex known as the
                Brewster projects, where a young Diana Ross and the
                Supremes spent some of their pre-Motown years. Past
                proposals have included a mix of new homes and retail

    Vacant housing project where Diana Ross, Supremes lived before Motown stardom coming down

  • (Detroit News, Max Ortiz/
                Associated Press ) - The media stands outside the
                Frederick Douglass Homes housing project on Thursday,
                Nov. 15, 2012 in Detroit. Detroit Mayor Dave Bing
                announced the demolition of the Frederick Douglass Homes
                housing project on Thursday. Bing says police and
                firefighters frequently respond to reports of crime and
                arson in the complex, and that demolishing it will allow
                scant city emergency resources to be deployed elsewhere.
                He said that the yearlong demolition and cleanup will be
                paid for by a $6.5 million federal Housing and Urban
                Development grant. The city has no set plans for
                redevelopment of the complex known as the Brewster
                projects, where a young Diana Ross and the Supremes
                spent some of their pre-Motown years. Past proposals
                have included a mix of new homes and retail
  • (Detroit News, Max Ortiz/
                Associated Press ) - Debris line one of the apartments
                at the Frederick Douglass Homes housing project on
                Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012 in Detroit. Detroit Mayor Dave
                Bing announced the demolition of the Frederick Douglass
                Homes housing project on Thursday. Bing says police and
                firefighters frequently respond to reports of crime and
                arson in the complex, and that demolishing it will allow
                scant city emergency resources to be deployed elsewhere.
                He said that the yearlong demolition and cleanup will be
                paid for by a $6.5 million federal Housing and Urban
                Development grant. The city has no set plans for
                redevelopment of the complex known as the Brewster
                projects, where a young Diana Ross and the Supremes
                spent some of their pre-Motown years. Past proposals
                have included a mix of new homes and retail
  • (Paul Sancya/ Associated Press ) -
                Part of the Brewster-Douglass housing project site is
                shown in Detroit, Friday, March 18, 2011. If Detroit
                Housing Commission director Eugene Jones had his way the
                “for sale” sign he’d post off Interstates 75 and 375
                would read: “14 acres of prime real estate between the
                city’s resurgent downtown and promising Midtown. A steal
                at $9 million. Will accept reasonable offer.” Real
                offers have been few. One arts group proposal to hang
                junked cars from windows in one the Brewster-Douglass
                housing project’s empty 14-story towers was declined.
                Unlike cities like Chicago, where the last building in
                notorious Cabrini-Green public housing complex was razed
                within months of the final family moving out,
                Brewster-Douglass has been empty for two years and none
                of the 20 brick buildings has been torn down. Neither
                the city nor Jones’ commission has the money to demolish
                the complex which is beginning to rival the long-empty,
                17-story Michigan Central Depot as another symbol of
                Detroit’s decay.
  • (Paul Sancya/ Associated Press ) -
                Part of the Brewster-Douglass housing project site is
                shown in Detroit, Friday, March 18, 2011. If Detroit
                Housing Commission director Eugene Jones had his way the
                “for sale” sign he’d post off Interstates 75 and 375
                would read: “14 acres of prime real estate between the
                city’s resurgent downtown and promising Midtown. A steal
                at $9 million. Will accept reasonable offer.” Real
                offers have been few. One arts group proposal to hang
                junked cars from windows in one the Brewster-Douglass
                housing project’s empty 14-story towers was declined.
                Unlike cities like Chicago, where the last building in
                notorious Cabrini-Green public housing complex was razed
                within months of the final family moving out,
                Brewster-Douglass has been empty for two years and none
                of the 20 brick buildings has been torn down. Neither
                the city nor Jones’ commission has the money to demolish
                the complex which is beginning to rival the long-empty,
                17-story Michigan Central Depot as another symbol of
                Detroit’s decay.

Covering several city blocks, the complex bathes part of downtown and surrounding neighborhoods in shadow and fear and is a symbol of the city’s decline.
A $6.5 million federal Housing and Urban Development grant will cover the cost of tearing down the 75 condo-style apartments, two 6-story buildings and four 14-story towers. Soil remediation — the removal of any below-ground pollution — is included in that tally.
“It’s going to take us, probably, the better part of a year to get everything down,” the mayor told reporters at a news conference in front of the hulking complex. “This total area will be cleaned up.”
The city has no set plans for redevelopment of the complex where a young Diana Ross, Florence Ballard and Mary Wilson lived before signing with Berry Gordy’s Motown Records in the early 1960s. Past proposals have included a mix of new homes and retail establishments.
“I know there’s a lot of history here. I’m sure some people may even think that it shouldn’t come down,” Bing said. “But as we look at changing the face of Detroit, this is going to start with this.
“It’s become an eyesore. We’ve got to think about now and our future. Our future is demolishing this.”
The 2010 census confirmed what many Detroiters already knew: thousands of people have migrated from the city in recent years. Some 30,000 homes stand vacant and abandoned buildings litter the once-thriving industrial center.
The Frederick Douglass Homes was not always one of the blots on the landscape. Formerly known as the Brewster-Douglass housing project, the 661 units were completed in the early 1950s to provide affordable homes for working-class people.
The last families were vacated in 2008 by the Detroit Housing Commission as conditions in the buildings became unsafe. Though it’s empty now, the complex is frequently visited by police and firefighters responding to reports of crime and arson.
By tearing the buildings down and clearing the land, the city’s scant emergency resources can be deployed elsewhere, Bing said.
Adjacent to the unfenced housing project is a senior citizens complex. Some children in the surrounding neighborhood have to navigate their way past on their way to school.
“We have big concerns in regard to our children being harmed or snatched up from people who are lurking in these buildings,” said Brush Park Citizens District Council chair Mona Gardner. “It’s not secure.”