Saturday, February 28, 2009

Daily Bullish List 2/3/09

PROGRESSIVEIMPACT 72595.0000 0.4650 1.0000 0.0000 PICORP
TRANMIL 50512.0000 0.6350 1.0000 1.0000 TRANMIL
Commerce-Asset 47901.0000 6.9000 0.0000 0.0000 COMMERZ
Dialog 36732.0000 0.9150 1.0000 1.0000 DIALOG
PublicBank 22824.0000 8.8000 1.0000 1.0000 PBBANK
MalaysiaAirports 22485.0000 2.3100 1.0000 0.0000 AIRPORT
PetraPerdana 7782.0000 1.4100 0.0000 0.0000 PETRA
HoHup 5201.0000 0.3600 0.0000 0.0000 HOHUP
KLCC 4790.0000 2.9600 1.0000 0.0000 KLCCP
BritishAmerican 4347.0000 44.7500 1.0000 0.0000 BAT
LienHoe 2110.0000 0.1250 1.0000 0.0000 LIENHOE
PLENITUDE 1787.0000 1.8800 1.0000 0.0000 PLENITU
LMCEMNT 1691.0000 4.0000 1.0000 0.0000 LMCEMNT
WIJAYA-LA 1690.0000 0.5500 1.0000 0.0000 WIJAYA-LA
Tanjong 1450.0000 14.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TANJONG
Paramount 1323.0000 1.9500 0.0000 0.0000 PARAMON
ALAMMARITIM 999.0000 0.7400 1.0000 1.0000 ALAM
BinaPuri 615.0000 0.9500 1.0000 0.0000 BPURI

Go read disclaimer

Friday, February 27, 2009

Dr. Doom's lowly opinions on the 'experts'

What Dr. Marc Faber said during one of his recent interviews:-

Q: Any particular financial product or asset class that you would recommend for investors?

Avoid private banking departments. Gradually accumulate high-quality shares in Asia. Don't trust any investment bankers, brokers and investment advisers. They are in the business of making money for themselves, not for you!

Daily Bullish stocks 27/2/09


SimeDarby 90195.0000 5.8000 0.0000 0.0000 SIME
MALAYSIANBULKCARRIER 16542.0000 2.8400 1.0000 0.0000 MAYBULK
Dialog 16028.0000 0.8600 1.0000 0.0000 DIALOG
LingkaranTrans 15676.0000 2.0100 1.0000 1.0000 LITRAK
Minply 12372.0000 0.2750 1.0000 0.0000 MINPLY

JTInternational 10523.0000 4.6200 1.0000 0.0000 JTINTER
KUB 7136.0000 0.2950 1.0000 0.0000 KUB
APM 4226.0000 1.6500 1.0000 0.0000 APM
KeladiMaju 3260.0000 0.1150 1.0000 0.0000 KELADI
WIJAYA-LA 2450.0000 0.5600 1.0000 0.0000 WIJAYA-LA
WASEONG 1953.0000 1.1300 1.0000 0.0000 WASEONG
M3TECH 1826.0000 0.1700 1.0000 0.0000 M3TECH
HoHup 1824.0000 0.3100 0.0000 0.0000 HOHUP
VITROX 1594.0000 0.6000 1.0000 0.0000 VITROX

Go read disclaimer

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Will the EU land collapses ?

Recent years we read from Dr. Mahatir and many parrots 'experts" that the world should move away from the US and start to get warm with the EU in order to break the US's dominance over the global markets. Many of them propose that everybody should start using the EUROs in the international trade. Iran started with their oil trade and Venezuela threathens they will follow.

Now with the current global financial crisis, it seems that the EU land is in a more dangerous position than the US with their financial system facing a total collapse. Please read:-

"the crucial problem on this side of the Atlantic is that the largest European banks have become not only too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. For example, the total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leverage ratio over 50!) amount to about €2,000bn (more than Fannie Mae) or more than 80 per cent of the gross domestic product of Germany. This is simply too much for the Bundesbank or even the German state, given that the German budget is bound by the rules of the European Union’s stability pact and the German government cannot order (unlike the US Treasury) its central bank to issue more currency. Similarly, the total liabilities of Barclays of around £1,300bn (leverage ratio 60!) are roughly equivalent to the GDP of the UK....."

Daniel Gross, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels

And you should take note many of the EU banks have high exposure to those former Eastern Bloc nations which joined the EU in the last decade. Most of their economy are already near collapsing.

So, the lesson to be learnt here is politicians (especially Malaysian type) know nuts about the real working of the economy and you should never park your money following their thinkings.

Daily bullish stocks 26/2/09

COMPUGT 123105.0000 0.1700 0.0000 0.0000 COMPUGT
PROGRESSIVE-IMPACT 103151.0000 0.4650 1.0000 0.0000 PICORP
AZRB 60543.0000 0.6350 1.00001.0000 AZRB
TNB 22624.0000 6.3000 1.0000 0.0000 TENAGA
TRANMIL 15355.0000 0.6600 1.0000 1.0000 TRANMIL
BerjayaToto 11160.0000 4.7800 0.0000 0.0000 BJTOTO
KLOFFESpot 7610.0000 895.0000 0.0000 0.0000 SPOTMTH
NOVA-MSC 6000.0000 0.0550 1.0000 0.0000 NOVAMSC
HIAPTECK 1550.0000 0.6800 0.0000 0.0000 HIAPTEK
TSRCAP 1164.0000 1.0100 0.0000 0.0000 TSRCAP
WINSUN-TECH 1051.0000 0.0600 1.0000 0.0000 WINSUN
VINTAGE 1000.0000 0.1050 1.0000 0.0000 VINTAGE
HTPADU 893.0000 0.9000 1.0000 1.0000 HTPADU
Faber 814.0000 0.6750 0.0000 0.0000 FABER
Padiberas 730.0000 1.4000 1.0000 0.0000 BERNAS
WILLOW 600.0000 0.1700 1.0000 1.0000 WILLOW
MUDAJAYA 586.0000 1.1800 1.0000 0.0000 MUDAJYA
AluminiumCompan 535.0000 0.8500 0.0000 0.0000 ALCOM
LTKM 510.0000 1.0800 0.0000 0.0000 LTKM

Go read disclaimer

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Mr. Andrew Lahde on idiots

Mr. Andrew Lahde, founder of Lahde Capital management , a hedge fund that earned 870% in 2007 by shoring the type of mortgaged backed toxic instruments that have left large institutions at the Fed's doorstep tin cup in hand , like all the actors/actresses who just won an Oscar, would like to thank those people that contributed to his successes:-

"Those idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, were
there for the taking. These people who were often truly not worthy of the education they
received or supposedly received
rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Sterns and
the Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the
aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the
other side of my trades.
God bless America."

Daily bullish list 25/2/09


HIRO 56474.0000 0.6250 1.0000 1.0000 HIRO
Commerce-Asset 52973.0000 6.7500 0.0000 0.0000 COMMERZ
PublicBank-Fo 39240.0000 9.2000 1.0000 1.0000 PBBANK-O1
DiGi.Com 16138.0000 21.2000 0.0000 0.0000 DIGI
NTPM 14440.0000 0.5200 1.0000 0.0000 NTPM
Formost 5653.0000 0.3450 1.0000 0.0000 FORMOST
IGBCorp 4195.0000 1.4700 0.0000 0.0000 IGB
MISC-F 4171.0000 8.6000 1.0000 0.0000 MISC-O1
HongLeongBank 3820.0000 5.4500 0.0000 0.0000 HLBANK
TanjongPlc 3596.0000 14.1000 0.0000 0.0000 TANJONG
THGroup 3455.0000 0.7400 1.0000 1.0000 THGROUP
SUMATEC 1912.0000 0.2550 1.0000 1.0000 SUMATEC
PMCorp 1021.0000 0.1200 1.0000 0.0000 PMCORP
ALAMMARITIMRESOURCES 669.0000 0.7200 1.0000 1.0000 ALAM

Notes on how to use this list:-

1) Trend 1 means stocks that MAY have started trending
2) Trend 2 means stocks that have confirmed trending
3) My system is NEVER meant for buy low. If you have decided to buy a stock,
always buy 1-2 ticks above signal day high.

Go read disclaimer .

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Ahmad Zaki Resources

This stock is simmerly bullish with my proprietory Tun Marvin Blowout indicator going below zero. Pay attention to its prior fractal high of 0.535, if price manages to close above that level , there is a great chance that it may blow higher.

My indicator does not foretell direction of any eventual blowout, but since the MACD has been crossing up and approaching its zero signal line, I think we can place our bets on the bull side. I think whatever DPM is bringing out soon may benefit stocks like this. (what other game does he know to strengthen the nation's economy?)

I have never quite like Malaysia construction stocks. I think many of them are great illusionist artistes. So trade them and make profit. Dump them when they hit your stops. Treat them as a whore and never bring them home

IOI - from heroes to zeroes

IOI has been in the limelight for the past few months. First it was about the collapse of the CPO, then it was about their huge FX losses. This stock has been called as the "anti-gravity stock" by many of the 'experts' before its price collapsed. By "Anti Gravity" they mean it stock will stay flying high , at least holding its altitude.

Then there is the other school of thought who advocate "Buy and Hold" - Yes, IOI is one of their poster boys. Yes, everything are in there- good management, good dividends (?), bright future etc.

Please take a look at IOI daily chart and assume you are one of the fabled fantastic "buy low" artistes and you bought in IOI at around mid 2003 when KLCI bull began. Your average buying price would be around 1.20 and you practice buy and hold. IOI price took a great fall after end 2008 and gone back to its recent low of 2.08.

The question that begs to be asked is :- why don't people sell off IOI at higher prices ? Thus allowing your investment goes from 1.20 to a high of 8.60 and come back all the way of 2.08 ? It certainly does not make any sense to anybody! Of course those 'experts' would argue that IOI remains a 'good' company and they are in for the long term. But if you are holding 100 lots , please tell me did you secretly beat up your wife and children when you see it falls from 8.60 to 2.00+ ? What an emotional wreck would you have became witnessing and experiencing its great fall ?

If you practice 'Buy and Hold", your investment in IOI would have been a "from Heroes to Zeroes" classic case.

But If you have applied a little simple technical analysis on your investment, you would have done as what is shown on the 2nd chart. A simple technical analysis system which I applied here is :- buy when MACD crosses up its zero signal line and prices have to be above a mid term moving averages (anything that is more than 50 days and below 100 days - take you picks - your Fengshui numbers eg. 68,88 etc) And my stop is when RSI goes below its 50 signal line. Of course there are some whipping during a sideway market, but a small losses is anytime better than a big losses. Notice there is after July, 2008 final sell signal, there is no more no more new buy signal. This effectively allowing you to take your profit and deposit into the bank while keeping yourself amused when the 'experts' are trying very hard to "explain" what happened.

Is GBP getting ready for a rebound ?

It seems the financial storms over the EU is even more life threatening than that over the US. The GBP has been falling like a rock since December last year. It comes down from a high of 2.116 to a low of 1.349 registered on 23rd January this year.

As usual, before that all the "experts" were telling us how mor higher can the GBP trash the USD. Of course they put the blame of the "black swan" - everything but themselves.

Looking at the daily chart, it seems that the GBP MAY do a short term technical rebound. As prices have been falling one new low after another since November, but the MACD indicator has instead doing a series of higher troughs. As it is fast approaching its own zero signal line, I am getting increasing bullish on this pair.

But I also take note that the Stochastic has NOT yet turn around. And the worst of all is the ADX has been falling confirming a lack of a strong trend in this market. So at this moment, I would watch (1) the Stochastic first to see the emergence of a reversal signal; (2) the recent fractal point of 1.4984 taken out; (3) the recent D- peak taken out and the MACD crossing above its zero signal line.

Once all the above are in, then we should see the GBP staging a mighty rebound.

Since there is similar bullish divergence in the weekly chart, I will take this as a short term technical rebound in an grossly oversold situation. Nothing more.

Monday, February 23, 2009

My views on Elizabeth Wong

From the "Let's Get It On" album liner notes by Marvin Gaye:-



Saturday, February 21, 2009

一 張 紙












The MACD is crossing up its zero signal line and both the short term moving averages are above the medium term moving average. Price has already maintained above all the 3 moving averages. But what I like the most is the rising ADX which may be telling us that a trend is developing.

You can try to go in when price closes above its recent peak of 2.57.

This is one of those trading stocks, nothing too bullish about it.

KLOFFE 23/2/09

Last week I warned of the ADX was falling below its 20 signal line that we have to watch the Stochastic closely. It went above the overbought zone and then turn down below its 80 signal line thus triggering an initial sell signal. And I also have a confirmation with price closed below the Bollinger Band top. By Friday, the MACD has also crossed down and the D+ has also crossed below the D-, both giving another sell confirmation.

Since the ADX continues to fall and stays below its 20 signal line , this mean this market has entered into a trendless situation. So you should continue to watch the Stochastic closely for your short term trading. Since the MACD is doing its bearish cross down near to its zero signal line, there may be a chance that this sell signal may become something bigger.

On the coming week, if price goes below Friday's low or
prices go below the Bollinger Band bottom ,you may want to add on your short positions. Most important of all - watch the ADX, if it rises, there will be bigger fireworks.

Kloffe's weekly chart Stochastic has already crossed down, thus flashing its initial sell signal. But we would to bring your attention to the increasing squeezing Bollinger Band thus supplementing the daily chart's trend less reading. But like we always say - a squeezing Bollinger Band is always extremely profitable. So monitor this closely. By the coming week, we hope we can begin to discuss this market's next major direction.

CPO - 23/2/09

I was prudent when I said I remain cautious even though there were new buy signals flashed last week. I put in some qualifiers before we really get excited. But all those qualifiers were not met - first the MACD failed to take out its prior peak and price failed to take out its prior high. And price went down below 1905 and that should taken out your long positions.

At present both the MACD and the Stochastic have crossed down and price crossed below the Bollinger Band top, so you would have entered into some shorts positions. Since the MACD is crossing down near its zero signal line and the Stochastic may cross down its 50 signal line, both may bring out more selling and add weight to this little bear . Since the D+ is still holding above the D- and the daily ADX is flat, so we will trade this market with a short term view first until something bigger develops.

The weekly chart Stochastic has begun to turn down and with price closes below the Bollinger Band top again, the prior little bull is losing ground again. With the weekly ADX continues to fall and the daily ADX flat, we would not too surprise that this market is entering into another new round of sideway consolidation. We will have to wait for 1-2 weeks to tell us where this market is next going.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Will crude oil bull return ?


I have been extremely bullish about crude oil for the past few weeks. I think there is a great chance that it will hit USD70-80 again. Not that I am happy that petrol price will go up again which will affect most people. But I think it is going to one of those highly profitable situation if you are in the futures trading business.

Please take a look at the CLK9 weekly chart, we seems to be seeing a double bottoms in formation with the indicator flashing a bullish divergence. This is extremely important as this MAY be telling us that this commodity is already near its long term terminal point. Of course we would a need of confirmation and that would be a weekly closing (Friday's closing) of above its prior high or the middle Bollinger Band.

The daily chart is a really exciting and wonderful piece. The MACD has formed multiple bullish divergence (higher troughs) while prices have done lower lows. The MACD is nearer to its zero signal line than ever which is an added bullishness. You would take note that the ADX has been falling and gone below its 20 signal line which is confirming crude oil's recent range bounding (as marked by the 2 horizontal lines). Price did a new low 2 days ago but somewhat recovered yesterday.

I must emphasize here I am NOT saying crude oil will begin its extreme bull rally tomorrow and I never believe in "BUY LOW" as I honestly do not know where is it. In fact there is nothing to say that it may go further south.

In order to confirm the bull is back, we need:-

1) Closing prices above its prior high of 58.31.

2) Both short term moving averages above long term moving average and prices must be also all the 3 moving averages. (or above the Bollinger Band top will do too)

3) most important of all is that the ADX must rise in tandem with the prices. Otherwise it would be just another false break which is common in a range bound situation.

Many people ask how can crude oil rise when the whole global economies are in such a dump. Search me as I am not a fundamental analysis guy. Let those "experts explain " to you after it happened. But I can tell you this: I read from somewhere recently that the US consumption of oil only fall 1% last December compared to 2007's month to month. If the US economy is really doing that bad as in their propaganda, why only a 1% drop? Chew on that.

I can only educatedly predict what a market will do next base on technical analysis and I often find it profitable. I mean how many 'experts' can explain to you why the USD's current bull rally in advance?

Thursday, February 19, 2009

F&N collapsed

On the 12th this month I wrote on F&N when there were several brokers and analysts calling it a buy. I then warned of a bearish divergence found at its daily chart. Base on technical analysis a bearish divergence usually mean the stock is about collapse. Fundamentally it usually some big boys are pushing prices to a new high but secretly distributing the stocks to the uninformed.

Today the news broke that F&N has lost their Coca Cola dealership, thus the stock was sold down with huge volume. It lost RM1.15 or 12.8%. The biggest single day loss in its 10 years history.

I would like to pay tribute to technical analysis for preventing someone from buying this stock when it was 'recommended'. Then also it also how nastily evil some of those guys can be.

Why the world needs US or vice versa

Interesting article written by an Indian Economist

Japanese save a lot. They do not spend much. Also
exports far more than it imports. Has an annual trade surplus of over 100 billions. Yet Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.

Americans spend, save little. Also US imports more than it exports. Has an annual trade deficit of over $400 billion. Yet, the American economy is considered strong and trusted to get stronger.

But where from do Americans get money to spend?
They borrow from
Japan, China and even India
Virtually others save for the
to spend. Global savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars.

India itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50 billions in US securities. China has sunk over $160 billion in US securities. Japan
's stakes in US securities is in trillions.


US has taken over $5 trillion from the world. So, as the world saves for the US, Americans spend freely. Today, to keep the US consumption going, that is for the US economy to work, other countries have to remit $180 billion every quarter, which is $2 billion a day, to the US!

A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has invested more, US in
China, or China in US? The US has invested in China less than half of what China
has invested in US.

The same is the case with
India. We have invested in US over $50 billion. But the US has invested less than $20 billion in India

Why the world is after US?

The secret lies in the American spending, that they hardly save. In fact they use their credit cards to spend their future income. That the
US spends is what makes it attractive to export to the US. So US
imports more than what it exports year after year.

The result

The world is dependent on
US consumption for its growth. By its deepening culture of consumption, the US has habituated the world to feed on US consumption. But as the US needs money to finance its consumption, the world provides the money.

It's like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer so that the customer keeps buying from the shop. If the customer will not buy, the shop won't have business, unless the shopkeeper funds him. The
is like the lucky customer. And the world is like the helpless shopkeeper financier.

Who is
America's biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan of course. Yet it's Japan which is regarded as weak. Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend, so they do not grow. To force the Japanese to spend, the Japanese government exerted itself, reduced the savings rates, even charged the savers.
Even then the Japanese did not spend (habits don't change, even with taxes, do they?). Their traditional postal savings alone is over $1.2 trillions, about three times the Indian GDP. Thus, savings, far from being the strength of
, has become its pain.

Hence, what is the lesson?

That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend.
Dr. Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous Indian-born economist in the
US, told Manmohan Singh that Indians wastefully save. Ask them to spend, on imported cars and, seriously, even on cosmetics! This will put
India on a growth curve. This is one of the reason for MNC's coming down to India
, seeing the consumer spending.

'Saving is sin, and spending is virtue.'

But before you follow this neo economics, get some fools to save so that you can borrow from them and spend!!!

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Bullish stuffs 18/2/09

Hiaptek is another one of those breakout artistes that I particularly fond off. It is closing above the Bollinger Band top after the band has squeezed for awhile. The current closing also manages to close above a recent high (marked by a horizontal line). With the MACD going nearer its zero signal line, I think this one should go far. Stop should be placed below the Bollinger Band bottom minus 2 ticks or its recent lowest low.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Bullish stuffs 16/2/09

Both upon closing above marked line may go further. For Iarport, place stop loss at below Bollinger Band top of 2.15. For Kinstel place stop at its Bollinger Band low of 0.40. Buy has to be validated by closing of abovementioned instead of trying to buy "low".

(You got pressure, I got pressure) uncle step aside

A Hong Kong woman misses her flight to San Francisco while her dogs are on board, cue this masterpiece of work:

This woman makes the Bus Uncle(you got pressure, i got pressure!) looks like an amateur. And sane.

2009 Holidays in USA

Holidays in USA involves trips to the most fascinating locales, going on sojourn to the most exotic cities, visiting the most comprehensive museums and art houses, relaxing in the tranquil and serene beaches and enjoy fabulous nightlife activities¡K However, if you are a native of the US and would want to explore the various facets of the US cities, you could perfectly coincide your holidays with the 2009 holidays so that you could enjoy your vacation better and would not have to worry about your piling work too!

2009 holidays in USA identifies 10 federal holidays that are applicable to all federal employees. Mentioned below is the list of USA 2009 holidays along with the details:

  • January 1 - New Year's Day (Thursday): Celebrated all over the world as New Year Day, 1st January 2009 is an official holiday. 2009 holidays in USA could not begin more ideally than with this one on a Thursday.
  • January 19 - Birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr (Monday): The birthday of Martin Luther King Jr is celebrated as a holiday on the 3rd Monday in January every year.
  • February 16 - Washington's Birthday (Monday): This day is celebrated as a holiday in a number of states in the US. Also referred to as the Presidents Day it is celebrated on the 3rd Monday in February. It is especially celebrated for its historical significance.
  • May 25 - Memorial Day (Monday): Celebrated on the last Monday in May, the Memorial Day is celebrated as a tribute to the men and women who laid down their lives while serving the country especially in the military service field. People will generally visit cemeteries to honor the departed ones on this day of the USA 2009 holidays.
  • July 3 - Independence Day (Friday): One of the prime days in the list of 2009 holidays in USA, the Independence Day is a federal holiday. Having got its independence from Great Britain on the 4th of July 1776, the US observes this day as the Independence Day. Parades, carnivals, fireworks and lots of family picnics are the order of the day on this day. As July 4th 2009 is a Saturday, it has been declared that July 3rd will be a federal holiday for the employees in lieu of the Saturday.
  • September 7 - Labor Day (Monday): Celebrated since the latter part of the 18th century, Labor Day is observed on the 1st Monday in September. The day is devoted to the social and economic achievements of the American workers and labors.
  • October 12 - Columbus Day (Monday): A historical event in the USA 2009 holidays is the Columbus Day celebrated in the memory of the great discoverer Christopher Columbus who set foot in America on 21st October 1492. This day is celebrated on the second Monday in the month of October.
  • November 11 - Veterans Day (Wednesday): To commemorate the American military veterans, the Veterans Day is celebrated all over the US as both a federal as well as a state 2009 holiday in USA. The occasion has been known by this name since 1954, before which the day was referred to as the Armistice Day.
  • November 26 - Thanksgiving Day (Thursday): It was first observed as a harvest festival in Canada that soon went on to become a federal holiday even in the US the Thanksgiving Day is celebrated on the 4th Thursday in November every year.
  • December 25 - Christmas Day (Friday): To commemorate the birth of the savior, Jesus Christ, December 25 is celebrated as a holiday all over the world. It has both a religious connotation as well as a social attribute associated with it. People go to the churches, offer prayers and also view this USA 2009 holiday as an ideal occasion to meet the near and dear ones.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Bullish stuff 13/2/09

These are some of what I would call Blowout Artistes - stocks that are blowing up from a squeezing Bollinger Band which is usually staging explosive moves after a confirmation.

CPO 16/2/09

At the daily chart, please take note the rising ADX has crossed with the falling D- which can be taken as another buying signal. The rising ADX which hit 21 is confirming a new trend may have already started. We would get really excited once the MACD takes out its prior peak. We are looking at 2250 and 2540 as its next target. Meanwhile keep 1905 as stops.

We take note that this is the first time that the weekly's closing price closes above the Bollinger Band since mid September, 2007 and the first time the weekly chart D+ crosses above the D- since mid July, 2008. Both the weekly Stochastic and MACD stay positive and continue to rise, it would be getting really bullish it can close above its recent high of 2058.

KLOFFE 16/2/09

Even though we have both the Stochastic and the MACD crossing up and continue to rising which is usually bullish. But with the ADX is still lying dead, we would have to pay attention to the Stochastic rather than the MACD. As the Stochastic is fast approaching the overbought zone, we would have to place our stops tighter which is now at 898.

The weekly chart's Stochastic and MACD are still positive and continue to rise and price stay above the Bollinger Band bottom, so we still remain mildly bullish.

We would need to see prices close above its recent high of 942.50 in order to feel more bullish about this market. At the moment , just treat it a trading market.

The Great Escape

(The photo is meant for a joke - it was the scene when the Iraqi withdrawing from Kuwait occupation)

For many expatriate workers in Dubai it was the ultimate symbol of their tax-free wealth: a luxurious car that few could have afforded on the money they earned at home.

Now, faced with crippling debts as a result of their high living and Dubai’s fading fortunes, many expatriates are abandoning their cars at the airport and fleeing home rather than risk jail for defaulting on loans.

Police have found more than 3,000 cars outside Dubai’s international airport in recent months. Most of the cars – four-wheel drives, saloons and “a few” Mercedes – had keys left in the ignition.

Some had used-to-the-limit credit cards in the glove box. Others had notes of apology attached to the windscreen.
Related Links

* With no oil, desert economy is built on shifting sand

* Dubai millionaires' beach becomes cesspool

* Dubai lifts veil of secrecy to assuage fears

“Every day we find more and more cars,” said one senior airport security official, who did not want to be named. “Christmas was the worst – we found more than two dozen on a single day.”

When the market collapsed and the emirate’s once-booming economy started to slow down, many expatriates were left owning several homes and unable to pay the mortgages without credit.

“There were a lot of people living the high life, investing in real estate and a lifestyle they couldn’t afford,” one senior banker said.

Under Sharia, which prevails in Dubai, the punishment for defaulting on a debt is severe. Bouncing a check, for example, is punishable with jail. Those who flee the emirate are known as skips.

The abandoned cars underscore a worrying trend. Five years ago the Emir, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, embarked on an ambitious plan to transform Dubai into a hub for business and tourism. A building boom fuelled double-digit growth, with thousands of Westerners arriving every day, eager to cash in on the emirate’s promise of easy living and wealth.

Many Westerners invested in Dubai’s skyrocketing real estate market, buying and reselling homes before building was even complete. But, as the recession took effect, property and financial companies made thousands of workers redundant and banks tightened lending. Construction companies have delayed or cancelled projects and tourism is slowing.

There are increasing signs that the foreigners who once flocked to Dubai are leaving. “There is no way of tracking actual numbers, but the anecdotal evidence is overwhelming. Dubai is emptying out,” said a Western diplomat.

International schools are having to be flexible on fees as expatriate parents run out of cash. Louise, a single mother from Britain, said that her son’s school had allowed her to pay a partial fee until she found a new job after her redundancy in December. “According to the headmaster, a lot of people had come into the school saying they had lost their jobs so the school was trying to be a bit more flexible,” she said.

Most of the emirate’s banks are not affiliated with British financial institutions, so those who flee do not have to worry about creditors. Their abandoned cars are eventually sold off by the banks at weekly auctions. Those recently advertised include BMWs, Porsches and Mercedes.

Simon Goldsmith, a spokesman for the British Embassy in Dubai, said that that there were approximately 100,000 Britons living in Dubai last year. However, the embassy has no way of tracking how many have fled back to the UK. “We’ve heard stories, but when somebody makes that kind of decision, they generally keep it to themselves,” he said.

Police have issued warrants against owners of the deserted cars. Those who return risk arrest at the airport.

Heading home

3.62 million expatriates in Dubai

864,000 nationals

8% population decline predicted this year, as expatriates leave

1,500 visas cancelled every day in Dubai

62% of homes occupied by expatriates 60% fall in property values predicted

50% slump in the price of luxury apartments on Palm Jumeirah

25% reduction in luxury spending among UAE expatriates

Friday, February 13, 2009

Men's testosterone blamed for current crisis

Men behaving badly: testosterone had its role in the lost billions

FRED, Tom, Andy, Dennis, Eric, John, Stephen, Antonio and Paul ran British banks that lost billions of dollars.

So they were called in for a grilling by Nick, Graham, Colin, Jim, Stephen, Michael, Andrew, George, Mark, Peter, three Johns — and a single, solitary Sally.

The interrogation of the lions of British banking, many of whom have lost their jobs, began on television on Tuesday before the financial overseers of the British Parliament's Treasury Select Committee. And in line with the usual maths of the financial world, 18 of the 19 key people in the room were men.

"Clearly, something needs to change," said Howard Archer, the managing director of European Forecasting and Analysis at IHS Global Insight in London. "You can argue that the men have made a right mess of it, and now the ladies should have a go."

As the global financial downturn deepens, the first rumblings of a gender revolution are under way in an industry long controlled by men. Banks, hedge funds and other financial organisations that have led the international economy's downward spiral are overwhelmingly male-dominated. The regulators and legislators assigned to oversee the financiers are also mostly men.

"There are quite a lot of alpha males with testosterone steaming out their ears," said Stuart Fraser, one of the top financial sector officials in London.

In Britain, women account for just 12 per cent of corporate directorships of companies on the FTSE 100 stock exchange index. In the US, women hold 17 per cent of the corporate directorships. "Maybe if we had more women in the boardrooms, we might not have seen as much risk-taking behaviour," said Hazel Blears, one of two female members of the cabinet of the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown.

Harriet Harman, the minister for women and equality, blasted the banking world for "discrimination and harassment" against women, including using lap-dancing clubs for corporate entertainment.

Amid the debate about whether the financial crisis would have happened, or been as severe, if more women had been in charge, there are signs that more women will be taking part in the global rescue.

Iceland, which suffered a humiliating economic collapse, has turned over key levers of finance to women. It now has a female prime minister, and women lead two of its major banks. The Prime Minister, Johanna Sigurdardottir, 66, has vowed to exercise "prudence and responsibility" as she cleans up the male-dominated system that sank the national economy.

"Men, especially young men, made a mess of things," said Kristjan Kristjansson, the Prime Minister's spokesman. "There is a strong discussion that women would have taken a more cautious approach in the financial sector. You could call the financial sector almost like a men's club."

Einar Mar Gudmundsson, an influential Icelandic writer, said: "These financial vikings who made the country bankrupt were in a way like little boys playing with toys." He said he would like both men and women to be involved in reconstructing the nation's financial sector.

In France, Michel Ferrary, a professor at the business school Ceram, recently conducted a study that concluded that French companies with the greatest percentage of women in management have performed the best during the crisis.

For example, he said, BNP Paribas bank, whose management team is nearly 39 per cent female, has weathered the crisis far better than Credit Agricole, where women make up just 16 per cent of managers.

John Coates, a researcher at Cambridge University who once ran a trading desk on Wall Street, recently conducted a novel survey that analysed saliva from 17 male traders in London's financial district. Coates concluded that traders made the highest profits when they had the highest levels of testosterone in their spit. The downside, he said, was that elevated testosterone also led to riskier behaviour, a formula for disaster as well as profit. "If you had more women on the trading floors, you would probably eliminate some of this instability," Coates said.

For three hours on Tuesday morning, four elite bankers sat before the Treasury Select Committee: Tom McKillop and Fred Goodwin, who ran the Royal Bank of Scotland, and Andy Hornby and Dennis Stevenson of HBOS. One after another, under often hostile questioning from the politicians, they apologised for presiding over bank collapses that have cost billions in taxpayer-funded bail-outs.

The legislators accused the bankers of being "arrogant" and "in denial" about their responsibility for the crisis. "It's an old boy's network," Sally Keeble, the committee's only female member, said after the hearing. She said she was most disturbed that the top echelons of British banking seemed to rely on a "cozy consensus of like-minded people" unwilling to listen to those who might challenge their views.

John Thurso, also part of the committee, said: "If there were more women, there might have been more of a reality check."

The Washington Post

Politicians who know it all

We may think we are having extreme low view on our Malaysian politicians as most are just NOT qualify for the jobs. Well, Mr. Syed Hamid, don't worry, you have many friends among the US Congress - Below is one of the US bloggers who are laughing at theirs too:-

"Watch this 7-minute video of Maxine Waters’ random rantings at the Congressional hearings yesterday, where she roasts, er, the “Captains of the Universe”:

You guys know I want to see these CEOs raked over the coals as much as anyone, but I truly wonder how the hell Maxine Waters ever got sufficient rank to be in a position to do it. TigerHawk’s characterization cracked me up really hard:

Her questions to the bankers are so bizarre that they don’t know what to do. Ken Lewis looks like a deer in the headlights as Waters asks her about offshore loss mitigation efforts. He can’t even figure out what she’s talking about, and neither can I. She also asks the bankers, few of whom are in the credit card business, how many of them have cut credit limits to people on the basis of where they shop. It’s like watching your crazy aunt challenge your boyfriend to prove that fairies aren’t real.

It is starting look like standards are not so high for being an elected official. I think I should run for Congress, and I’m throwing the name of LoLo, Esq., into the hat for Sec’y of Commerce."

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Signs of time

"Met: Are you hiring?????"

That's the question a Bank of America worker pasted on his office window in a midtown-Manhattan skyscraper. The giant, troubled bank's building is next to MetLife, a more solvent insurance firm.

Watch this

Hap Seng plantation is one of those nice stocks that is begging to rock and roll. Prices have managed to stay above major moving average and Bollinger Band top. RSI is above 50 signal line and MACD is positive. All the above can be taken as an initial buy signal.

But I would not touch it yet as its ADX is staying below the 20 signal line which is telling us that a trend is not there yet. I mean why would anyone want to buy a stock and keep it for days/weeks or even months before it rips? Would it be more exciting if we buy a stock and it begins to roar the next day ?

So I would watch its recent high of 1.86 for a confirmation of the new bull cycle.

This stock should go far.

F&N: Better stay aside and watch

This stock is called by a number of brokers as the those 'better' stocks to hold for this year because they feel 'comfortable' with its fundamentals. Yesterday it has just flashed a new daily buy signal with its MACD crossed up But with a bearish divergence found at both its daily and weekly chart, these are stocks that prices that are telling us it may be collapsing soon.

If for any strange reason that you may feel you need to buy this stock, then the least you should do is to wait for it to clear its recent high of 9.10 CONVINCINGLY. By that I mean 2 daily closing above that level with volume. Otherwise, there are plentiful of other stocks with better Ba Tzi - I mean, why fight the market ?

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Alliance Financial Group

This stock is getting as attractive as its CEO. I am watching intensely for a closing of above 2.04 for a confirmation.

At present, both the MACD and the RSI are positive as the MACD is fast approaching its zero signal line and the RSI manages to stay above its 50 signal line. Price is also staying above the Bollinger Band bottom. All these 3 are usually taken as initial buy signal. But there is the lousy ADX which is staying flat at 20's and my proprietary RXW indicator is still dead, both confirming there is an absence of trend .

Since there is already bullish divergence found at the MACD (lower prices and higher indicator troughs),
I am getting increasing bullish as its Bollinger Band has begun to 'squeeze' which usually an explosive movement is about to come.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

More on Fengshui and the markets

Like the man says:-‘Have all your Black-Scholes, rocket science quantitative black-box models and fundamental analysis done much better over the past year?’”

I append here a few charts that are predicted on their coming moves. Their workings are base on Chinese 4 Pillars calculations. And one thing that immediately strike you will be their likely directions are greatly contradictory to what the market "experts" have been calling. Eg. an extreme bearish equities markets, buy gold when everything else 'fails', US Dollars fast becoming as worthless as the Japanese banana notes etc.

While I know absolutely nuts about the Chinese 4 Pillars reading, but base on my own technical analysis readings on all these charts, I am more inclined to go with them. I think the US equities and crude oil are dying for a strong rebound; the USD is due for a correction
and gold may due for a major fall, just look at its chart formation, I am thinking about a major a Head & Shoulder xtreme bearish setup.

Fengshui and the markets

Time to rearrange the furniture and burn some incense in the northwest corner of your office. Feng shui is the latest rage in market forecasting.

HONG KONG — About 170 investors with a net worth of at least $1 million each crowded into a ballroom at the Four Seasons Hotel to hear Alion Yeo’s views on the markets for the coming year. The audience, clients of European bank ABN AMRO Private Banking, peppered him with questions.

“The incoming U.S. president and [Treasury] secretary were both born in the Year of the Ox,” said one client. “Is that a problem?”

Mr. Yeo’s answer: Yes. The pair of oxen in charge of the U.S. economy could be an accident waiting to happen. Hold out until after January 2010 before investing in the U.S., he advised.

And here we just thought they were donkeys! I cannot wait to hear someone bust out with this argument on the Senate floor as a key reason why Obama’s plan won’t work.

Not surprisingly, in the current economic climate, most of the forecasts are for doom, gloom and haterade. Despite that, though, one of the feng shui analysts hazarded some recommendations in the “fire” and “wood” sectors - that is, electronics, energy and agriculture - recommendations that sound remarkably similar to those of your garden-variety, non-mystical, soulless analyst.

For those inclined to call BS, there is, of course, the “where did the quants get you, anyway?” argument:

At Bank of China International, energy-sector analyst Lawrence Lau doubles as the bank’s in-house feng shui master. In a recent note to clients, he wrote: “While some may think that ancient superstition has little to offer in terms of investment advice, I challenge readers to ask themselves: ‘Have all your Black-Scholes, rocket science quantitative black-box models and fundamental analysis done much better over the past year?’”

Hmm. Is there a black swan in the Chinese zodiac?

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Blissful news amidst doom and gloom

The Pet Shop Boys' new album will be released on March 16th, and features Owen Pallett of Final Fantasy on string arrangements, and Johnny Marr on guitar. Marr is presumably returning the favour Neil Tennant paid him by singing on Electronic's 'Getting Away With It' back in the day.

It is titled "Yes" and it will be released through Parlophone/EMI label.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

KLOFFE 10/2/09


As at last week, intra day movement would had stopped your long positions out. This is quite a common occurrence when the ADX is below the 20's signifying a trend
less market as there will be many false moves. But we are still cautiously bullish biased on this market. Price has again managed to close above the middle Bollinger Band which is its 20 days moving average. But since the daily ADX continues to fall and gone below the 20 signal line, so we would be paying more attention to the Stochastic rather than the MACD which is a trending indicator. The Stochastic now has positively crossed up its 20 signal line which may be taken as an initial buying signal.

If this upside move can be maintained for a few more trading days ahead, we should see the MACD giving another new buy signal. We are willing to bet on additional long trades is because the MACD is near its zero signal line which its long signals are usually more reliable than those that are further away from this line. On top of this, we note that this new up move is supported by the weekly chart's Stochastic which has now crossed up its 50 signal line which by itself is another buy signal. Though the weekly MACD is also positive and rising, it is at -51 which we consider as "far" from its signal line which is telling us the current up move is just another technical rebound and not the beginning of a new bull cycle. You should also take note that the weekly ADX has already fallen which is confirming the prior bear cycle may has ended, at least temporarily.

If you have already entered the trade, then keep 870 as stops.

CPO 10/2/09


As we mentioned last week that since the ADX has been falling and now it is below the 20 signal line, the Stochastic matters more than the MACD. The Stochastic has now crossed up its 20 signal line which is giving us the initial buy. And if it closes above 1915, you may want to add on more long positions. Another indicator you should keep an eye on is the D+. We have circled the area where we would like to see the D+ rises higher than its prior peak (marked out with a horizontal line). Once the prior peak is taken out, we should see the return of a bigger bull to this market.

Meanwhile CPO's weekly chart's Stochastic and MACD continue to rise.

It is strange that the NYMEX crude oil's chart seems to be 'waiting' for something big. Will they be leading CPO or vice versa ?

Friday, February 6, 2009

Crude getting ready for the return of the bull ?

We have witnessed crude oil falling from its high of USD 147 to its rccent low of USD 39, all within a short period of 4 months. While all the fundamental analysts would tell us that the current gloomy global market situation would have killed the demand side of the story, thus crude oil price would be unable to go higher.

But when we take a look at the CLJ9 daily chart, the picture seems to tell us otherwise. While the most significant "what'w wrong with this picture" item that jumps forth in our face will be while prices have been falling to new lows, the MACD indicator has been rising higher and higher (as marked out in the 2nd and 3rd panel of the chart). This is a classical bullish divergence which if play out, usually is telling us that this market is about to blow to a dramatic high level.

I note that this market has been side waying since late December last year and this is being confirmed by a falling ADX which is now at a lowly 14's. When ADX is below its 20 signal level, it is read as there is no trend in the market.

One item that causes much excitment would be the squeezing/tightening Bollinger Band found at the first panel. Whenever the BBand squeezes, it usually forewarn us that this market may explode soon.

I am bullish biased about this market because the MACD is positive and rising towards its own zero signal line. But I would not take the crossover as a confirmation of the return of the bull but I would see that prices close above the 2 top horizontal line marked out its recent high or a rising D+ rising above the D-'s prior highs as a confirmation.

Meanwhile you should sit tight and watch this market closely for a profitable trade.

"Buy and Hold" fallacy

This is another bitter lesson for those people who advocate "Buy and Hold" / "Value Investing" / Fundamental Analysis. AIG by any of their conventional angles would be considered as a "blue chip" counter - on top of that , an ex-component of the DJIA. I know of many people who rushed in to buy some at around USD3.00 which they think it was very 'cheap'. "cheap" may become FOC very soon:-

"American International Group Inc., once the world’s largest insurer, fell below $1, crossing the threshold at which shares may be delisted by the New York Stock Exchange if they fail to recover.

The insurer, bailed out by the U.S. last year in a rescue now valued at about $150 billion, slipped 3 cents to $1 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after falling as low as 99 cents. That’s less than half the price on Sept. 17, the day after AIG agreed to turn over a majority stake to the U.S. to avoid collapse.

AIG, which committed to sell most of its businesses to repay the government, had to restructure its bailout last year after reduced access to credit constricted the ability of potential buyers to bid on the company’s units. AIG has struck deals to sell operations from Connecticut to the Philippines to raise more than $2.3 billion, compared with the $38.9 billion the insurer tapped from a U.S. credit line as of Dec. 31.

“You can’t possibly pay the taxpayer back by liquidating the company, or a major part of it,” former Chief Executive Officer Maurice “Hank” Greenbergsaid in an interview last month. “How do you pick the most devastating time in memory to say, ‘We’re going to sell all these assets now?’” Greenberg controls the largest stake of AIG shares after the government.

The New York Stock Exchange may start delisting proceedings for companies whose 30-day average price falls below $1. The process may be halted if the stock slide reverses or a company does a reverse split to boost the share price.

Bad Bets

The stock closed at $52.93 on Feb. 5 of last year and more than $103 on Dec. 8, 2000. The insurer posted more than $40 billion in net losses over four quarters on bad bets tied to the U.S. housing market.

AIG was replaced last year in the 30-member Dow Jones Industrial Average by Kraft Foods Inc. after the government rescue."