Sunday, March 31, 2013

"Experts" Switching Camp - Now Sing Chorus Of Praises For US Dollars

美元地位难撼

US Dollars protected paranormal power



 
自2007年信贷紧缩爆发以来,关于美元的全球最 重要储备货币地位衰落的预测屡见不鲜。
与美联储(Fed)定量宽松计划相关的美元疲软给这些预测提供了充足的空间。持有巨额外汇储备的亚洲和中东国家急于多样化投资,以减轻美国 宽松货币政策给外汇市场带来的影响,这一点再自然不过了。
甚至在有关欧元区主权债务危机的担忧在去年达到顶峰时全球资金回流至美元之后,很多分析师仍愿意支持将人民币视为一个未来取代美元的选择。
然而,对此表示怀疑是合理的。首先,我们要注意一下,美国的短期财政问题往往在分散人们对于经济基本面因素的关注。2月好于预期的就业数据 再次突显 了美国周期性地位的相对强势。财政赤字相对于国内生产总值(GDP)的比例处于下行趋势。同时,美联储最新银行压力测试的结果提醒人们,美国 银行业体系的 状况远远优于欧元区。对于一个经历过资产负债表衰退现在仍承受着巨额债务负担的经济体而言,今年经济可能增长2%左右或更高,这是个不错的结 果。而欧元区 可能面临零增长甚至负增长。此外,我们可以肯定:美国将成为第一个退出定量宽松政策的国家,实际利率将走高。
从市场灵活性、创新空间以及能源独立可能性的角度来看,美国经济的结构性也远远好于欧洲或日 本。实际上,发达国家经济最引人注目的特征就是它的两级分化有多么严重:北美与其他地区。这些都肯定指向美元走强,而非走弱。
What happens to these ?????

对美元衰落提出质疑的一个同样具有说服力的理由是中国有关美元的
评论。中国人民银行金融研究所(Research Institute)所长金中夏辩称,美元的全球主导地位将继续下去,这反映出美国的经济、金融和军事力量。他以个人名义在欧洲官方货币与金 融机构论坛 (Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum)撰文称,在可预见的未来,全球外汇体系将在“1+4”的框架下运行,美元将继续作为超级储备货币,另外4种规模较小的储备货币将作为补充:欧 洲是欧元和英镑,亚洲是日元和人民币。
对于金中夏而言,欧元区的债务危机表现出了欧元的结构性弱点。在把欧元跨境交易对美元支付基础设施的部分依赖考虑在内后,他将欧元视为一个 重要地区储备货币,将继续占据仅次于美元的次要地位,同时因伦敦在全球金融中的作用,英镑仍将是重要参与者。
最后,他补充称,尽管很多人认为日本在推动日元国际化方面没有取得成功,但日元仍是亚洲最国际化的货币,特别是因为日元清算占日本外贸总额 的30% 至40%,中国将花费多年时间才能赶上这一水平。实际上,过去一年与我交谈过的中国多数决策者都认为,人民币的储备货币地位是一个非常长期的 计划。
凭借深入的金融市场、强大的财产权以及现任政府的种种优势,美国仍将成为储备货币构成中的重要部分。美元可能将再度走强。毕竟,外汇市场上 的一切都 是相对的。尽管欧元区危机暂时告一段落,但它尚未结束,这让欧元看上去比美元脆弱。在日本,安倍经济学(Abenomics)意味着日元汇率 将继续走低。 加拿大和澳大利亚等以良好状态度过此次金融危机的国家的货币现在看上去相当脆弱。
如果我们将步入一个强势美元时期,对于全球经济而言,这将是一项重要转变。它对于新兴市场的影响可能尤其令人不舒服。瑞银(UBS)高级经 济顾问乔 治•马格纳斯(George Magnus)指出,从历史上来说,强势美元对拉美和亚洲不利,并将对大宗商品热潮构成威胁。这一威胁恰逢中国经济增长变得不那么依赖大宗商品,中国经济 正从投资向消费转型。因此,经济实力从西方向东方的大规模转移或许不会像人们现在想象的那样明显。

 

美国在破产边缘 ????!!!!!

美国企业现金储备总额创 新高

You have been reading from the Chinese papers (china's ass lickers)  that America is on the edge of bankruptcy (maybe for the past 50 years or so). This is just a piece of America's true strength that no many taking note or want to talk about


昨日发布的新数据显示,苹果(Apple)和其他 一些科技公司的现金储备不断增加,使美国企业的整体流动性达到创纪录水平。
美国评级机构——穆迪投资服务公司(Moody’s Investor Service)表示,在过去3年间,美国企业部门的现金储备每增加10美元,就有大约6美元来自科技企业。去年底美国企业现金储备总额达到了创纪录的 1.450万亿美元,同比增长10%。
穆迪表示,仅苹果一家公司就可能在今年底坐拥1700亿美元现金和短期投资,这让它在美国企业现金储备总额中的比重从去年底的9.5%,升 至预计的11%。
为了应对现金储备日益增加的问题,越来越多的科技公司开始或加大派息,尽管速度还不足以阻止现金储备增长或者让投资者感到满意。
苹果在一年前的这一周首次宣布派息。由于华尔街日益加大压力以及维权股东绿光资本(Greenlight Capital)呼吁发行一类新的优先股以回馈股东,预计该公司将在今后几周宣布增加派息。
戴尔(Dell)的现金也吸引了维权投资者的注意,卡尔•伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)和其他人一起,要求该公司放弃拟议私有化计划,转而拿出现金派发大笔股息,并支持更大的债务。
穆迪分析师理查德•莱恩(Richard Lane)表示,维权活动增加是债券市场投资者的几个担忧之一,因为这可能削弱企业的资产负债表。
穆迪的数据建立在公司持有的现金总额和流动性投资基础之上,没有反映日益增加的债务水平——后者让美国企业的财务杠杆上升。然而,穆迪表 示,许多企业充分利用偏低的债券收益率延长债券到期日,而流动性资源超过了未来5年的偿债支出总额。
盈利的科技公司往往通过低税率国家来转移收入,这种避税安排也导致了现金储备不断增加。美国企业在海外实现的利润如果未曾缴税或基本未曾缴 税,汇回 美国就会面临至多35%的税率,这鼓励了企业将这些利润留在海外。穆迪的数据显示,美国企业的海外现金去年增长20%,至8400亿美元。思 科 (Cisco Systems)首席执行官约翰•钱伯斯(John Chambers)等美国科技行业头面人物呼吁出台对汇回国内的海外现金暂时减免税的政策,尽管大部分税收专家表示,由于财政状况不佳,美国政府不太可能 出台这种政策。

我们是一个诚实的国家 - 中国称对军品出口 

一向慎重负责


中国武器出口额大幅上升,同时也仍在进口大量武器
瑞典智库斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)统计称,中国五年来武器出口额飙升,已经取代英 国成为全球第五大武器出口国。
中国外交部周一对此做出回应。
中国外交部发言人洪磊在例行记者会上说:中国政府对军品出口一向采取 慎重、负责的态度,在恪守安理会决议等国际法义务前提下,根据本国法规实行严格管理。”
洪磊还表示,中国的军品出口遵循三项原则:一是有助于接受国的正当自卫能力二是不损害有关地区和世界的和平、安全与稳定三是不干涉接受国内政。
瑞典研究所的最新报告统计,在2008-2012年 中,中国武器出口总量增加了162%
目前中国在国际军火市场的占有份额已经从此前的2%增加到5%。
2008-2012年美国出口武器数量占全球总数30%,维持全球最大军火出口国地位。
俄罗斯以26%的市场占有名列第二;德国和法国分别排名第三和第四。
报告显示,中国武器出口的最大客户是巴基斯坦。

 

方济有神为靠山 习近平有什么 ?



方济各与习近平势均力 敌吗?
  
英国《卫报》周二刊登评论文章,分析新上任的教皇方济各和新上任的中国国家主席习近平各自的影 响力。

文章说,上周世界上有两大举世瞩目的任命:
教皇方济各与中国国家主席习近平,二者之间有某种对称。

两人都是影响全球的大机构的首领,领导的人数都高达 12、13亿。两人的年龄可能相差近20岁,
但年青时却都经过化学专科教育,而且都被誉为亲民的领袖,至少与他们的同僚们相比是亲民的。方济各喜欢乘公共 交通,住简易公寓,而不喜欢豪华专用车和宫殿。习近平年仅15岁时就被送到偏远农村下乡改造,在那里一呆就是七年。

两人都有改革者的潜力。方济各批评神父们虚伪、贪图教会虚荣。
外界希望他改革梵蒂冈的官僚架构。习近平父亲曾是共产党高官,但习近平不容忍政 治腐败,已经高调处理了一些腐败丑闻,而且在出任党总书记的第一天就告诫党员腐败、受贿、脱离群众等一定要严肃处理。

文章认为,抛开别的不说,
光是这两大任命分别发生在中国和南美洲就是提醒我们,历史已经离开了欧洲,转向了东方和南半球。


习近平成为中国集党政军大权于一身的最高领导人

当然,习近平和方济各之间也有不同。 习近平娶了明星歌手彭丽媛,方济各未娶。习近平是无神论者,
方济各肯定不是。“但是两者之间最大的差别是一个位高权轻,另一个则位高权重。” 虽然教皇方济各也有权提拔或者开除教会内的人员,但习近平尽管并非民主选举授权,却有权威代表中国十几亿人说话。

“这一点上的差别是实实在在的。
不用吹灰之力习近平明天就能毁了你的生活。虽然这种可能性微乎其微,但只要他抛弃数万亿美元的美国欠债,或者 拒绝购买任何国债,对西方经济造成的影响都将是灾难性的。所以,说习近平是世界上第二大甚至第一大权势人物一点都不夸张。”

而教皇方济各呢,却完全不是权势人物。
他所做的丝毫不能直接或间接影响你我的生活,或者影响不到在圣彼得广场上去见他的成千上万人的生活。他 既没有军队可以派遣,也没有什么财力可以发挥,但却受到世界领导人的”欢迎“和”尊重“。他也不会要求这些领导人甚至他的追随者不容置疑地绝 对服从。正如斯大林曾经思考过的,教皇手下能有几个军团呢?

文章认为,教皇之所以如此令人着迷,就是因为他唯一武器就是“
话语和以身作则的榜样,正如耶稣基督一样。”

"权力或许能驱动历史,但只有权威才能赋予历史意义”。
很多世纪以来,教皇的权威只是比权力多了一层宗教色彩。现在连这样的权威也不复存在。 教皇方济各所能做的也只有话语和以身作则。教皇所有的这些与世界上最大的军队、总值7万亿美元并以近10%速度增长的GDP和一万亿美元的美 国债务相比较,真是算不得什么。

文章最后写道:“ 但是要提醒大家的是,看看耶稣基督用话语和自身榜样取得了怎样 的成就。”


香港成为颠覆内地社会主义的阵地和桥头堡
1997年7月1日,英国向中国移交香港政权。自此之后,这块土地经历了不少高低跌宕。
上周二,福克兰群岛(阿根廷称马尔维纳斯群岛)的选民在公投中以绝对压倒性多数选择继续归属英国 海外领土。
香港英文报章《南华早报》也于上周二的「每日一民调」提出:如果有选择的 话,香港人是否会投票重新成为英国海外属地?」这个带戏谑的调查当然不能与严谨的民意调查相比,但数千名投票的网民中,竟有超过九成人投赞成票,这样压倒性的结果, 还是反映了一定的民情。
崇洋还是崇优?
其实香港人对英国的「思念」更胜从九七之前,并不是今天才从石头爆出来的现象。无论是代表昔日殖民政府 的香港旗,还是由市民用香港旗改图而成,象征香港自治的龙狮旗,近年的曝光率不断上 升。中国当然不甚高兴:去年港澳办前副主任陈佐洱对此表示心痛,今年更 升温至几乎等同港独。温馨提示变成了严正的警告,政治局常委俞正声就表示「香港不能成 为颠覆内地社会主义的阵地和桥头堡」。
当然,市民都知道,回归英国是完全不可能的事,但许多人看到这面久违了的旗帜 在关键的地点和时刻随风飘扬,即使不完全支持高举这面旗帜的人的观点,还是会发出会心微笑
大家暗地里多少也有一种想法:纵然知道殖民时代也有过漫长的黑暗岁月,但对于经历过八九十年代的黄金 时代的香港人,缅怀当年的原因真的再单纯不过,就是今天的生活不如从前──属于自己的 地方、资源和制度都被来自“北方”的人潮和势力占领甚至吞噬
这些人大多是普通市民,没有受外国势力教唆,也不是恋殖崇洋,而是崇尚过去较优质的生活而已。至少,那时的铜锣湾、尖沙咀和旺角,仍是属于香港人的;疫苗、奶粉、医院床位和野营营地等生活 各方的资源,也不用去抢去争。
此外,英国从来没有强迫港人要爱这宗主国,反而「帮助」港人建立「香港 人」的身份和自信,这种「自由」 对不少人来说也是令其眷恋前宗主国的原因。当然,他们可能忘记英国背后的政治动机,就是 从一开始,趁港人为着九七问题而人心惶惶之际,逃避像葡国政府给予 澳门居民宗主国国籍的责任。如今殖民地已成为特区十多年了,遗民」当不成英国人却仍 眷恋昔日宗主国,犹如是强抢亲之下对旧爱的念念不忘。
敏感与幽默
也许,香港人的敏感度不够高是事实。在漫长的殖民岁月之中,这个弹丸之地就插满了各国各党各派的旗帜。香港旗和英国旗常挂在政府建 筑物上;其他党派的旗帜也在特定的日子在不同的势力范围内出现。
当年,一般香港人看到香港/英国旗不会感动流泪,看到青天白日或五星红旗有的也只是与我何干的政治冷感,对雪山狮子旗更几乎毫无认 识。左中右有过受打压的时候,但最终仍可各据山头,一方是调景岭,一方是北角,双十和十一,旗帜鲜明地在半岛和小岛上飘扬。
今天,所有旗帜都变得敏感。雪山狮子和青天白日见不得阳光;英国旗、香港旗、龙狮旗挥舞不得,否则动辄得咎;甚至是五星红旗也碰不 得,玩笑开不得。
因此,用国旗、区旗二次创作借题发挥的行动被视为「挑机」;以幽默手法讽刺时弊的时事节目更被视为眼中 钉,要除之而后快。香港电台电视部讽刺时弊的长寿节目《头条新闻》,还有现场论政节目《议事论事》,长期就被视为要整治的对象。唯政 务官出身的广播处长邓 忍光仍要求员工交代「思想过程」,此举在自由社会中闻所未闻,确有干预编采自主之嫌。
要是再比一比的话,当年这两个皇牌节目也不留情面地开过很多港英时代的高官玩笑,末 代港督彭定康也不例 外,但英国人就是以幽默作风称着,一个玩笑而已,没有干预的理由;一但来认真的,你就输了人心。可 惜,现在当官的,没有继承英国人的幽默感,而是来认真 的,最终激起更严重的社会撕裂。
民间社会自然也不甘示弱,本来以捍卫本土文化为目标的本土行动,逐部升级至 光复行动,在被陆客和水货客「占领」的地区宣示主权;继而有自治论的出现,还有酝酿中并逐渐成形的占领中环行动。
中联办主任张晓明说,香港人「需要换位思考,顾及内地同胞的感受,避免伤感情。」然而,若「港人治港」退化为一句口号,中共继续无视香港人多年来的要求,抗争行动也就必然升温,也必然引爆更多伤感情的中港冲 突。
Record Corporate Insolvencies in Australia

The housing bubble in Australia has popped but the biggest declines are still ahead. Meanwhile other problems have surfaced, as expected in this corner, namely Insolvencies hit record levels in January

    A total of 628 firms collapsed in January, the highest-ever for what is a traditionally quiet month and a 21.2 per cent increase from the previous year, accounting company Taylor Woodings said in a report released on Wednesday.

    NSW recorded the highest number of collapses among the states, with 189 insolvencies, although it was 2.6 per cent lower than the previous corresponding period. In contrast, insolvencies doubled in Western Australia from 29 in January 2012, to 58 this year.

    In the first seven months of the 2013 financial year, ASIC reported 6053 company insolvencies, the second-largest recorded and 0.2 per cent lower than last year.

    The high number of collapses came despite a recent increase in consumer sentiment.

    Mr Schwarz [Taylor Woodings’ Melbourne partner Andrew Schwarz] said construction activity remained low, with housing starts well down from their trend and high point. "Having said that, property prices have started to rebound a little bit, so whether that increase in property prices and in consumer confidence will lead into new housing starts, time will tell," he said.

Optimism is hardly warranted. Australia's fundamentals (a housing-bust economy, a slowdown in mining with falling Chinese demand, overpriced rents, and high labor costs) are simply horrendous.

澳大利亚:未来五年铁矿石价格将下跌

澳大利亚官方大宗商品预测机构预计,随着市场对铁矿石需求减少、
供应增加,未来五年铁矿石价格将降至每吨90美元。
澳大利亚资源与能源经济经济局(Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics,简称BREE)
在昨日发布的季度报告中指出:“由于需求、尤其是中国的需求不断下滑,再加上已在建设中的采矿项目导致供应大幅增加, 预计(铁矿石)价格将会下跌。”
铁矿石价格对全球经济来说非常关键,
因为它会传导到钢材价格以及汽车和洗衣机这类商品的价格上。此外,它还对大型矿业集团和安赛乐米塔尔 (ArcelorMittal)、宝钢集团(Baosteel)等钢企的盈利能力有着重要影响。
排名世界第二、三、四位的铁矿石矿商——力拓矿业集团(Rio Tinto)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和Fortescue Metals Group——都在大力增产。预计到2015年时,
它们的开采产能将增长2.35亿吨,约为去年澳大利亚铁矿石总产量的一半。
但分析师越来越担忧的是,随着澳大利亚(全球最大铁矿石出口国)
的产量逐渐增加以及中国需求逐渐放缓,海运铁矿石市场不久就会供应过剩。
铁矿石价格上周跌至每吨132.90美元的两个半月低点,
原因是中国钢企(全球最大的铁矿石需求方)因终端需求疲软而逐渐撤出市场。
由于废料在钢铁生产中的作用不断提升、
再加上中国对国内铁矿持续投资,中国对进口铁矿石的需求有所减弱。有鉴于此,高盛(Goldman Sachs)在本周早些时候将其对2015年铁矿石价格的预测值下调到每吨80美元。
高盛表示:“一年来的价格高企,
促使铁矿石行业加大投资以实现增产。但我们认为,未来的需求不足以消化掉增加后的产量。”
BREE的报告预计,
2013年铁矿石的平均现货及合约价格为每吨119美元,2018年将降至每吨90美元。报告还称,由于力拓和必和必拓 产量提高、Fortescue在西澳大利亚州的扩张项目也使产量“迅猛增长”,今年澳大利亚的铁矿石出口量将增长12%,达到5.54亿吨。 BREE预计,总体来说,2014年到2018年,澳大利亚铁矿石出口量的年均增幅将为8%。到2018年时,澳大利亚的铁矿石产量将达 8.31亿吨。
随着新的供应进入市场,大部分大型矿商都预期,
未来几个季度铁矿石价格将会下滑,预计今年的均价将为每吨120美元左右。但它们不认为铁矿石 价格会出现戏剧性的暴跌,理由是并非所有的预期供应都能实现、而且中国的城镇化将持续提振钢材需求。

毛泽东的幼稚左翼洋人朋友

 
历史上,成功显赫的犹太家族中,子女涉足左翼政治 的不在少 数。从马克思到现在的英国工党领袖埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)等人,这条路已经司空见惯。然而,很少有人能像悉尼•里滕伯格(Sidney Rittenberg)那样,在这条传统之路上走得这么远。他是南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿市一个犹太裔名门望族的后人。
20世纪30年代,里滕伯格拒绝了一份律师职业,投身成了一名工会与民权活动人士。后来他更 进一步,成了一名共产党,学会了中文,去了中国,参加了 毛泽东领导的游击队,与蒋介石(Chiang Kai-shek)国民政府作战,

在中共获胜以后,晋升为毛泽东身边的高级党员, 掌管中国国际广播电台,把毛泽东思想翻译成英语,在“文革”中成了造反派 的风云人物——
却 又被指控为美国间谍,总共单独囚禁了16年。然后他回到美国,靠指导美国企业如何进入中国市场发了财。
最初,我是在中国听说这位历史革命人物的。他的中文名叫李敦白(与Rittenberg谐音)。直到今天,中国的学校仍这样告诉学生:他是 一名正直的美国人,帮助中国建设共产主义。
依然健在的李敦白现年91岁,住在亚利桑那州——这对一个被毛泽东表彰为“国际共产主义战士”的人而言,相当不同寻常。他仍然经营着自己的 公司,还 在一所大学教学。他还上Facebook。只用了五分钟,采访他的请求就得到了回答——回答发自他的iPad。他说:“欢迎你。”
对于一名资深的中国共产党革命者而言,李敦白老顽童般的幽默感出人意料。我问他需要我从英国带点东西过去吗?李敦白回答道:“我一直渴望拥 有一座古老的苏格兰城堡。可以把城堡拆解成模块,运到这里,然后重新组装起来。当然,我还会要一块格子呢来搭配。”
即使没有城堡,李敦白依然站在门口热情地欢迎我。他看起来只有大概70岁。他在中国监狱里挨过饿,不过从没受过肉体折磨——只有精神折磨。 在20世 纪60年代“文革”的矛头对准李敦白夫妇后,他的妻子王玉琳遭受的磨难更加严重。 她遭到毒打,被迫坐在女厕所门口,脖子上挂着一块牌子,上面写着“这是一 名帝国主义走狗不知悔改的妻子”然后在艰苦的劳改队度过了3年。王玉琳已与他相伴近60年。
李敦白说道:“玉琳,英国人入侵啦!记不记得我们看过的电影《铁娘子》(The Iron Lady)?那么你知道该期待什么。”李敦白说话带着明显的美国南部口音。他说“China”这个单词时,字母“i”发音拉得很长,就像我们是在南方腹地 的某条门廊上闲聊一样。
李敦白热情好客。然而他在拍摄于中国的照片里看起来很可怕——尤其是在一张“文革”期间他对着崇拜他的红卫兵高谈阔论的照片里。请勿忘记, “文革” 是人类历史上一大罪恶,在集体爆发的数年精神狂热中,仿佛发生了一百万次纳粹“水晶之夜”(Kristallnachts)。李敦白就是其中 的一名关键人 物——直到他犯了惹恼“文革”主要精神领袖毛夫人(即江青)的严重错误。然后李敦白成为受害者之一。
甚至在我们坐下来开始第一段采访之前,我就想到了一个问题:如何就李敦白人生中较为难以开口 发问的阶段提问。中国的“文革”以及之前的“大饥荒” (Great Famine)大概导致7000万人丧生,尽管李敦白没有直接参与进去,但他是同谋。我还得找机会提到“哼哈勋爵”(Lord Haw-Haw)这个名字,因为李敦白曾不时匿名用英语在中国的国家宣传电台中国国际广播电台播音。天知道对于被他抛在身后的西方人而言,听到这个声音是 什么滋味。你可能会想:邪恶。

李敦白人生的扭拧矛盾之处越明显,就越难以用三言两语描述他,必须得用一本厚厚的书去记叙才行。2001年美国出版了一本李敦白自传,开了 一个好 头,但仍让人想要了解更多。一部关于李敦白的纪录片《革命者》(Revolutionary)目前正在各种电影节和艺术院线上映,看起来让人 兴趣盎然,但 这片子长度只有90分钟。
李敦白上大学读的是哲学,但珍珠港事件发生后,19岁的李敦白退学申请入伍。但与当步兵相比,李敦白更有语言天赋,因此1945年他被派到 中国,为 美国大兵担任翻译。二战结束后,李敦白光荣退役,但他留了下来,徒步走了45天,找到了毛泽东位于延安的游击队。在这里,他积极参加了革命。 他还成了中共 领导人的密友,常常与毛泽东讨论美国,毛泽东对此非常着迷。
但1949到1955年这6年,李敦白还被监禁了起来,因为斯大林写信警告毛泽 东,这名美籍犹太人是美国派来的间谍,被监禁的第一年,李敦白终年不 见阳光,仿佛丧失了感官。最终他沉冤得雪,晋升为高级中共宣传官员、公关人员、最高翻译以及与外国记者和高官 的联络人,成了一种对媒体友好、又不是部委要 员的革命者角色。他生活条件优越,工资比毛泽东还高。
有人可能称李敦白是党棍。“文革”中残酷的批斗大会逼得很多人发狂或者自杀。李敦白对“文 革”满腔热情,当他发现,作为一名外国人,他不是批斗的对 象时,他发起了一场自我批评。即使是在那个时代的漩涡中,此举显然也是独一无二的例子,可以称得上“自虐成狂”了。但这帮助他在45岁时成为 一支红卫兵分 队——“广播局捍卫毛泽东思想造反派”——的领袖。他成了全中国的偶像。江青心中嫉妒,曾尖刻地对他说:“你当红卫兵有点太老了吧?”后来江 青把他投入监 狱,关了10年之久。
毛泽东逝世后,江青被关押起来,李敦白同时获释。60岁的他回到美国,出人意料地受到了卡特(Carter)政府的热情接待,因此在情报界 激起了这 样的看法:李敦白一直是美国中央情报局(CIA)的间谍。他开始在夜校教书,王玉琳则教烹饪。他们创立了李敦白联合公司 (Rittenberg Associates),帮助高露洁棕榄(Colgate-Palmolive)、华纳音乐(Warner Music)、英特尔(Intel)、微软(Microsoft)以及普华永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers)等公司寻找进军中国市场 的途径。
李敦白身上还剩下几分共产主义者的色彩?他坚定地说:“一分不剩。我因为学习哲学而受到共产主义运动的吸引。考虑到我们在南方经受的苦难, 这种反应 很合理。但中国实际发生的事情让我彻底迷茫。第二次走出监狱时,我看到马克思列宁 主义的基本原理是错误的,从此我感到自己自由了。现在,我的政治观点 是……我认为有一天会有一套更好的制度。我们要等待资本主义得到恰当的改良。 我们需要基本生活资料的极大丰富,需要更大的体谅。重点是,如何让资本主义制 度有效运转。”

李敦白习惯于纠正别人对共产主义中国的看法,这让人感觉,他胸中仍然燃烧着革命之火,但更可能是,他只是比别人更了解这一话题。他感觉自己被误解 时,会为毛泽东辩护。人们常常指责毛泽东的一条是,他炫耀自己“比秦始皇埋掉的知识分子还多。”秦始皇因焚书坑儒而臭名昭著。李敦白解释 道:“毛泽东确实 说过比秦始皇‘埋’的人多,但他并不是指肉体上的埋葬。”
在美国,人们仍不时冒出这样的看法:李敦白肯定是深藏不露的CIA间谍。他说:“其实在我那个时候中国根本没有西方间谍。但以前的情报人员 至今都认 为,我是一名潜伏很深的间谍。即使今天,退休的CIA工作人员还会对我刨根问底。如果我否认,他们就说:‘哇,干得好。’我始终认为自己是一 名地道美国人 的代表,继承着托马斯•潘恩(Thomas Paine)等革命者的传统。所以我总是按美国人的习惯打扮。我想要成为中国的美国朋友,而不是中国人。”
那么美国人认为他是一名叛徒吗?他露出黯然不安的表情但看上去美国人并不认 为他是叛徒。1980年,他出现在美国驻北京大使馆,称他的美国护照丢 在了1947年去延安的路上,现在想要回家,使馆立刻给他发了新护照,欢迎他以及他们夫妇二人的四个孩子来美国。“即使他们认为 我是叛徒,也没有当我的面 这样说我是这里一家非常保守的乡间俱乐部的成员,在贵宾席上拥有座位。”
李敦白在中国遭到长期的残酷对待,这逼得他几近精神崩溃。这是否让他多少有点排斥中国文化和政治?他的回答不仅带有一丝公关风格,还带有几 分他作为娴熟的宣传者的影子,尽管态度很亲切。
“革命不是请客吃饭。从来就不是。但我认为,残酷并非中国人所特有的。我在美国南方长大,见证了伯明翰以及其他地方的警察暴行。情况更加恶 劣,因为 这是种族施虐。我认为,中国人的所作所为与在强大的封建主义传统中成长有关。我想这就像原子分裂一样。最初结合得越紧密,释放出来的能量就越 强大。但重要 的是,整个人类都要认识到,当人们不受束缚,可以肆无忌惮、为所欲为时,会有怎样的行为。”
李敦白说,当他被关押起来时,他并不痛恨诬陷他的人。“这就像你有一个挚爱的爱人,你们在一起很长时间了,突然她带着律师出现,控告你强 奸。你怎么 能这么对我?这怎么可能发生?”李敦白说,监禁期间,他成为更加虔诚的革命者,阅读了整部中文版《资本论》(Das Kapital),成为毛泽东思想更加狂热的信徒。
“他们曾说:‘如果你是一名真正的革命者,就应该经受住考验。’这就是我所需要的全部。”他曾有机会被送回美国,却决定留下来,如饥似渴地 学习。他 并不知道,如果当时回国,麦卡锡委员会(McCarthy committee)会将他生吞活剥。他成了毛泽东的信徒。“当我要发疯时,我会做恶梦,梦到毛泽东想要把我碎尸万段,但我却有意识地更加深入学习他的著 作,认为他是个天才。”
李敦白曾与毛泽东打金罗美纸牌,并给毛泽东介绍了美国喜剧演员搭档劳莱和哈代(Laurel and Hardy),而毛泽东对这两名演员喜爱有加。那么,住在亚利桑那州深宅大院中的李敦白,如今如何评价毛泽东?
“我认为,中国得面对这个事实:毛泽东是个怪物,是人类历史上最坏的人之一。他 是个天才,但他的天赋完全失控,因此毛泽东既是一位伟大的历史领袖, 也是一大历史罪人。他在不知道结果会如何的情况下,给了自己权利去实行社会试验,颠覆了数亿人的人生。这制造了饥荒,导致数千万 人死亡,引发了一场革命, 死者不计其数。”
李敦白认为,毛泽东后来开始为自己更加灾难性的行为感到内疚了。“1967年,我看到他坐在天安门城楼上,满脸极度痛苦的神色。我认为,他 因为事态 步入歧途而痛苦。”但就个人而言,李敦白表示:“尽管他说过我的好话,但我没有感觉到任何热度。他喜欢就他的政策为何正确展开热烈、民主的讨 论。如果你不 同意,那就是反革命。他是一位博学的天才战略家,但狭隘的小农嫉恨与偏见显然无时不在。”

由于李敦白本人对中国历史的参与,他的悔恨一直伴随他到晚年。冤枉无辜好人我 也有份。胁迫他人和寻找替罪羔羊已经制度化了,我看不到真相,因为那 时我觉得中国制度的方方面面都是好的,我感到自己是促进人类进步、自由和幸福的运动中的一份子。我不能设身处地地考虑别人的感 受。这是一种腐化,正是这种 腐化毁掉了一切。”
我本应该支持那些为争取发言权和保留不同意见的权利而斗争的人。我本应该退出。而我却让这些事情以我的名义继续下去。我骑虎难下。这里面 有着太多 的虚荣和诱惑。我曾认为,我是历史的一部分。我无法放手。这就是意识形态和权力的诱惑。你学会以建构美丽新世界的名义,硬起心肠。一旦硬起心 肠,你就什么 都干得出来。我就是这么做的。”
然后谈到今日中国。李敦白内心中那个老革命自我,是否看不惯中国当前的消费主义,甚至看不惯社会管制略微松动的发展迹象?或者他的新资本主 义自我欣赏如今的中国吗?
李敦白曾公开反对中国对待西藏、台湾和法轮功的立场,尽管态度温和。“瞧,中国政府帮助脱贫的人数之多,前所未有。他们解决了吃饭、住宿和 穿衣问 题。生活在贫困线以下的人口比例,比美国还低。真正的挑战是在政治和社会领域实施调整,适应新社会的变化,我认为他们正在这么做。他们没有压 制地方抗议 者。他们仍然不允许异见知识分子成为知识分子的中坚力量。但这不是领导人的原因,而是制度维护的原因,这与任何地方的制度维护一样。”
李敦白留给世人的印象是,他是世上最虔诚、最顽强的体验者。即使是在中国待了35年之后——其中有近一半的时间被单独关押,他仍然让这一切 听起来像 是一场令人惊叹的青少年叛逆之旅。他并不欲否认他的根源。在很多方面,他是一名非凡的犹太人。李敦白自豪地指出,多数跑到北京帮助共产党的西方左翼人士都 是犹太裔知识分子,很多来自英国。
最后我给他讲了一个经典的犹太笑话。说的是一名优秀的美籍犹太男孩去了印度,成为了一名印度宗教大师。很多年后,他母亲长途跋涉来到他静修 之处。母亲获准见他,但只准说九个字。“那好吧,”然后她转向大师,责备道:“谢尔顿,玩够了,回家吧。”
在我就要讲到点睛之笔时,我开始担心李敦白会不会怒不可遏,气出心脏病来。确实有大口喘气的声音,不过显然,他只是笑得太厉害,上气不接下 气了。他拍着自己的膝盖,大声说道:“谢尔顿,玩够了!这就是我!这就是我!”
Peak Oil Myth No More



Yesterday, Citi commodities analysts Seth Kleinman and Ed Morse declared that "the end was nigh" for oil demand.

They're not alone.

oil
      demand elasticityLast month, the BNY Mellon's asset management subsidiary, the Boston Company, published a paper called "End of an Era: The Death of Peak Oil." AOL Energy's Peter Gardett pointed us to it.

In brief, peak oil theory argues that oil production will peak, then fall sending prices surging. Ultimately, supply is unable to meet demand and prices become unbearable, sending the global economy to the edge.

The team, led by Robin Wehbé, makes arguments similar to Kleinman and Morse's: the rise of natural gas as an alternative fuel to oil, combined with increasing fuel efficiency, is causing crude demand to sink.

Wehbé and co. add that U.S. consumption has also become much more price elastic. They observe the following:

    When oil prices rise to 3% of gross domestic product, consumption becomes more cautionary
    A spike to 6.5% reduces consumption, exhibiting sharp price elasticity. (Currently this 6.5% level would translate into $165-a-barrel crude prices and $5-a-gallon gasoline prices.)

Team Wehbé decline to make a call on crude prices, and actually say they won't even necessarily go down.

Rather, they argue, the aforementioned trends will put an end to supply-shortage-related price spikes:

"...the likelier scenario is a gradual increase in global demand with ample sources and time for supply growth. Thus, we bid farewell to the days of Peak Oil."

It was fun while it lasted.
Rampant Boasting From  Korean Leaders Doesn't Measure Up To Reality

The final "cutting" of communications ties is just one act in a recent history of posturing on behalf of both country's leaders.
South Korea (ROK) President Park Geun-hye tore into office this year swearing to her constituents that any provocation on behalf of the North would be met with a ferocious response.

Her generals have made various boasts themselves, one even to destroy the DPRK's coveted dictator statues. Presumably she gave them the "go" to do so.

With a father who actually seized power in a coup, who can blame her? As a conservative, she occasionally reinforced the idea that the South Korean response to the 2010 shelling of ROK islands was completely lame. Most of the populace agreed with her, apparently.

Meanwhile, 30-year-old Kim Jong-Un dismisses her boasts, which she apparently makes with "a poisonous swish of the skirt."

It's no surprise the Kim-regime resorted to "skirt" talk. The new(ish) leader may still be eager to prove himself man enough for command in a room bristling with the DPRK's military generals (who might just try to step in on Kim).

A tidal wave of recent headlines might indicate that the combination of tough talk from the two leaders might turn light skirmishes into heavy skirmishes into "all out war."

Let's hope not.

Upon inspection, the most prudent response to the 2010 shelling was exactly what South Korea did, which was not much.

Most think tanks and analysts agree that the sacrifice of a few soldiers and no territory is much better than a war that at best would result in the collapse of North Korea, followed by a scramble to secure loose nukes and take care of a newly-liberated starving populace.
Because let's be honest: the DPRK isn't even remotely the biggest guy on the playground in terms of advanced weaponry. Its Vietnam-era jets and hardware are no match for South Korea (much less the U.S.) due to total lack of modernization and a plaguing lack of "spare parts, fuel and maintenance." Furthermore, their pilots put in a paltry single-digit amount of training hours per year.

About the only military equipment in somewhat working order is their artillery and their short range missiles — though granted, the artillery could deal significant damage to Seoul in the time it would take to mitigate the threat.

As for the North's long range rockets — if they even make it off the ground — without ultra-technical guiding systems, they are the global equivalent of trying to shoot a friend in your yard with a tube and a bottle rocket.

(A friend who happens to have cutting edge advanced warning and missile interception systems.)

That leaves really the possibility of a skirmish, likely initiated on behalf of the North. It's possible that ROK Prez Park would like to back up her boasting, but she can't even do that.

The recent pact between the U.S. and the ROK stipulates American command of joint forces in the event of a "low-level action such as a limited cross-border incursion."

Luckily, talk is cheap, and the alternative is unlikely.

第一夫人为刽子手唱《最 可爱的人》


彭丽媛在天安门事件期间演唱慰劳北京首都戒严部队的相片引起了关注。
中国微博近日出现第一夫人彭丽媛六四事件期间为北京戒严部队唱歌劳军的照片和帖子,不过很快被 删。
美联社发自北京的报道说,名为孙礼(Sun Li音译)的中国记者几年前用手机拍下了这张刊载在《解放军画报》上的相片。

孙礼说,他漫不经心地放在微博上发表,随后有昵称HKfighter的网友转发,HKfighter的微博很快地就被删除,新浪微 博的帐号也被取消。

这张照片后来被设在美国的“中国数字时代”网站转载,并在社交网站推特上传开。

相片中的彭丽媛身着军装、扎着马尾辫、前端头发则被风微微吹起、手持麦克风面对着大批“首都戒严部队”士兵唱歌。

美联社说,可以确认这张照片的真实性。据称,彭丽媛当时献唱《最 可爱的人》向戒严部队官兵“致敬”

不同形象

彭丽媛过去几天以第一夫人的身份随同习近平出访,其着装和举止成为中国媒体、网民乃至海外媒体关注焦点。

彭丽媛一改前几任中国第一夫人暗淡低调的形象,其亮相得到不少中国民众的积极评价,也被媒体称作是中国塑造“软实力”的一部分。

美联社的报道称,这张照片中的彭丽媛和她近日出访时的形象大相径庭。


有少将军衔的彭丽媛曾是解放军总政歌舞团的国家一级演员,后担任解放军艺术学院院长。

香港城市大学政治学教授郑宇硕说:“这张照片的负面效应更多的是在国际层面,而不是在中国国内。”

郑宇硕向美联社表示,这种照片可能会让人们对习近平的改革形象起疑。

2007年,彭丽媛曾经搭配穿着藏族服装的舞蹈团,演唱赞扬1959年 解放军入藏,这引起了藏人权利组织的批评。
The Peak Oil Myth Finally Dies 

peak oil
      chart
On November 7, 1973, President Nixon addressed the nation with a serious warning: America was running out of oil.

The Yom Kippur War had disrupted imports, and there weren't enough domestic supplies to plug the gap.

As a result, he said, we were going to have to make sacrifices:

...not just here in Washington but in every home, in every community across this country. If each of us joins in this effort, joins with the spirit and the determination that have always graced the American character, then half the battle will already be won.

The immediate crisis actually proved relatively short-lived: after spiking from about $4 to $10, oil prices settled around $13 until 1979, when the Iranian revolution hit.

But the announcement raised from the dead a wild-eyed theory that'd been proposed a generation earlier: American oil production was soon going to peak.

In 1948, M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist for Shell, predicted that given estimates of the amount of crude in the ground and contemporary production rates, we were going to run out of oil by 1965. He articulated his findings eight years later in a paper called "Nuclear Energy And The Fossil Fuels."

By Hubbert's own admission, the study didn't get much reaction.

But with Nixon's announcement, Hubbert's hypothesis began to look a lot more credible.

For the next 40 years, "peak oil" became the boogeyman of the U.S. economy. Google ngrams nicely summarizes its hold over the psyche of many Americans.

peak
      oil
 

But today, it is probably safe to say we have slayed "peak oil" once and for all, thanks to the combination new shale oil and gas production techniques and declining fuel use.

With the advent of fracking, U.S. oil production has climbed back to levels not seen since the mid-90s:

oil
      production
 

As we demonstrated, while an individual shale well doesn't last too long, there remain tens of thousands of wells to be dug.

And these charts from Exxon — a company you'd think would try to portray demand for its product as bullish — show U.S. energy demand is on the wane.

In the past week, "death of peak oil" talk has picked up dramatically.

Last Friday, E&E Publishing's Colin Sullivan published a piece wondering whether peak oil-ers have now joined the ranks of the flat earth-ers:

When asked whether the trend is really that clear-cut, a slate of experts from universities and think tanks agreed: The peak-oil concept is increasingly out of date less than a decade after its proponents said global output would surely hit the halfway mark. And few of these sources came from what one would think of as traditionally right-leaning or "pro-energy" institutions.

Then this week, Citi's Seth Kleinman and Ed Morse published a note saying "the end is nigh" for global oil demand growth:

The structural bull market of the previous decade was a result of surging global oil demand and consistently disappointing non-OPEC supply growth, compounded by a collapse in Iraqi and Venezuelan production. The outlook for each of these factors has now reversed, reinforcing Citi Research’s long term view that by the end of the decade Brent prices are likely to hover within a range of $80-90/bbl.

As it turned out, the Boston Company actually published a report in February  explicitly stating peak oil was "dead":

...an array of structural shifts in the Energy industry is conspiring to insulate the global economy from any such dramatic increase in the price of oil. After decades of indifference, pivotal U.S. consumers have radically altered their consumption of petroleum and related products, moderating demand for the world’s largest market. Concurrently, heightened investments and technological breakthroughs have spurred an explosion in resources, as source rock has expanded the definition of “finite resource.”

There remain misconceptions about what the end of peak oil means.

It does not necessarily mean lower gas prices. Worldwide demand for oil continues to rise, which has kept prices elevated. And existing U.S. infrastructure has struggled to handle the shale boom, largely depriving everyone but Midwesterners of new American fuel.

Plus, as Econbrowser's James Hamilton wrote in a post called, "Dude, where's my cheap gas?", a lot of what gets counted in booming liquid fossil fuels production totals is natural  gas liquids, which are used mostly by commercial trucks and petrochemical manufacturers.

It also does not mean U.S. energy independence. While demand is down, America still remains the top oil consumer in the world by a wide margin. As good as production has got, it will never be enough to meet our needs.  

Plus, the idea itself arguably helped nudge us toward more carbon-friendly fuels, as the FT's Izabella Kaminska writes:

whilst the theory propagated the idea that we would soon reach peak production despite ongoing demand growth, causing an inevitable energy crisis, it seems instead to have predicted our journey towards self-imposed peak production and a well managed shift from one carbon source to another more efficient one.

But the benefits of peak oil's death are still manifold, and aren't limited to the U.S.

Across the globe, rise of shale natural gas production has led businesses to switch oil for natural gas, Kleinman and Morse say

CNG [compressed natural gas] and propane is set for exponential growth not only in markets such as Brazil, Egypt, Iran and India, but in Russia and the US as well.

Meanwhile, local economies in places like Texas, North Dakota and Ohio are seeing explosive growth.

Most importantly, while the price of oil may still go up, the rate will be nowhere near as rapid as once feared.

And in a rebuke to the '70s, oil price volatility is probably over. As the Boston Company writes:

...recent advances in supply, multiple pressures curtailing demand and a flagging global economy provide us enough cover to maintain a reasonable supply-and-demand
balance, thereby avoiding supply-shortage-related price spikes.

Ironically, before proposing peak oil, M. King Hubbert gained some renown for his breakthroughs in underground fossil fuel flow studies, which according to his obituary "led to sweeping changes in the way oil and gas are produced."

Where Is The Hyperinflation ?


While inflation seems to be on everyone’s mind these days, misconceptions abound. Indeed, few concepts in economics are as misunderstood as inflation. This month I take a look at some common questions about inflation, and a few that I wish more people were asking.
Is hyperinflation coming to the U.S.?
No. Hyperinflation arises only under the most extreme conditions, such as war, political mismanagement, or the transition from a command economy to a market-based economy. If you compare the U.S. to countries that have experienced hyperinflation– think Iran, North Korea, Zimbabwe, and the former Yugoslavia, for example — the U.S. doesn’t even come close. Hyperinflation begins when a country experiences an inflation rate of greater than 50% percent per month — which comes out to about 13,000% per year. Although it experienced elevated inflation around the time of the Revolution and the Civil War, the United States has never passed this magic mark. At present, the U.S. inflation rate, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is less than 2% per year. So, to say that the U.S. is on its way to hyperinflation is just nonsense.

But what about Quantitative Easing? Won’t that cause high inflation?
No, at least not under the current QE program. What many people fail to understand is that the money created by the Fed, through programs like Quantitative Easing, is what’s known as “state money” (monetary base). In the U.S., this makes up only 15% of the money supply, broadly measured. The remainder is made up of “bank money” — the all important portion of the money supply produced by banks, through deposit creation.

So, while the Fed has more than tripled the supply of state money since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, in September 2008, this component of the money supply is still paltry compared to the total money supply. In fact, when measured broadly, using a Divisia M4 metric, the U.S. money supply is actually 6% below trend (see the accompanying chart).
There are a number of factors that affect the growth of money, but there are two main factors that have hampered broad money growth in the United States since the financial crisis. Not surprisingly, they are both government created. The first is the squeeze that has been put on the banks, as a result of Dodd-Frank and Basel III capital-asset ratio hikes. By requiring banks to hold more capital per dollar of assets (read: loans), the regulators have put a constraint on bank’s balance sheets, which limits their ability to lend. In consequence, money supply growth has been slower than it would have otherwise been.
inflation
Cato Institute

The other factor is the credit crunch created by the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy. This has dried up the interbank lending market, because banks have little financial incentive to lend to each other. Without a well-functioning interbank lending market to ensure balance sheet liquidity, banks have been unwilling to scale up or even retain their forward loan commitments.

The end result is a loose state money/tight bank money monetary mix. And since bank money makes up 85% of the total, the money supply in the U.S. is still, on balance, tight and below trend. That said, the broad Divisia M4 measure of the money supply has started to show signs of life in recent months.
inflation
Cato Institute
How Can The Fed Avoid Inflation Going Forward?
The Fed should start paying attention to the dollar. While operating under a regime of inflation targeting and a floating U.S. dollar exchange rate, Chairman Bernanke has seen fit to ignore fluctuations in the value of the dollar. Indeed, changes in the dollar’s exchange value do not appear as one of the six metrics on “Bernanke’s Dashboard” — the one the chairman uses to gauge the appropriateness of monetary policy. Perhaps this explains why Bernanke has been dismissive of questions suggesting that changes in the dollar’s exchange value influence either commodity prices or more broad gauges of inflation.

The relationship between the dollar’s value and inflation has been abundantly clear for the last decade. As Nobelist Robert Mundell has convincingly argued, changes in exchange rates transmit inflation (or deflation) into economies, and they can do so rapidly. This relationship was particularly pronounced during the financial crisis (see the accompanying chart).
Indeed, from 2007-09, the monthly year-over-year percent changes in the consumer price index and in the USD/EUR exchange rate have a correlation of 0.75. As can be seen in the chart, there is a roughly two-month lag between changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and in the CPI; when we factor in this lag, the correlation strengthens to 0.94.
By ignoring this, Bernanke was “flying blind” in the initial months of the crisis. In consequence, the Fed failed to stabilize the USD/EUR exchange rate, which swung dramatically in the months surrounding the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Accordingly, the Fed acted too slowly in cutting the federal funds rate to stabilize inflation, which swung from an alarming rate of over 5% (year-over-year), to a negative (deflationary) rate in a matter of a few short months. If Bernanke had been monitoring the USD/EUR exchange rate, he would have realized that he was engaging in an ultra-tight monetary policy in the early months of the financial crisis. He would have known then to act much sooner than December 2008 — almost two months after the Lehman bankruptcy. Perhaps if he had tried to stabilize the value of the greenback, the bankruptcy may never have occurred in the first place.
How Does the Value of the Dollar Influence Inflation?
One important way the dollar’s value affects inflation is through commodity prices. With few exceptions, when the dollar weakens against the euro, commodity prices soar, and when the dollar soars against the euro, commodity prices plunge. As every commodity trader knows, when the value of the dollar falls, the nominal dollar prices of internationally traded commodities — like gold, rice, corn and oil — must increase because more dollars are required to purchase the same quantity of any commodity. The linkage between the dollar-euro exchange rate and commodity prices is depicted in the accompanying chart.

inflation
Cato Institute
During the 2002–July 2008 period, the dollar declined steeply against the euro, and commodity prices surged. When the dollar subsequently rebounded, after Lehman Brothers collapsed, commodity prices tumbled. And again, following the first quarter of 2009, the renewed decline in the dollar’s exchange rate brought with it another surge in commodity prices.
We can see the consequences of this relationship in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. During the five years preceding the Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the Fed’s favorite inflation target — the consumer price index, absent food and energy prices — was increasing at a regular, modest rate. But, this was an illusion. As can be seen in the accompanying chart, a weakening dollar drove up asset prices in the equities, commodities, and, of course, housing markets.
Unbeknownst to the Fed, abrupt shifts in major relative prices were underfoot. For example, housing prices — measured by the Case-Shiller home price index — were surging, increasing by 45% from the first quarter in 2003 until their peak in the first quarter of 2006. Share prices were also on a tear, increasing by 66% from the first quarter of 2003 until they peaked in the first quarter of 2008.
inflation
Cato Institute

The most dramatic price increases were in the commodities, however. Measured by the Commodity Research Bureau’s spot index, commodity prices increased by 92% from the first quarter of 2003 to their pre-Lehman Brothers peak in the second quarter of 2008.
The dramatic jump in commodity prices was due, in large part, to the fact that a weak dollar accompanied the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates. Measured by the Federal Reserve’s Trade-Weighted Exchange Index for major currencies, the greenback fell in value by 30.5% from 2003 to mid-July 2008.

For any economist worth his salt, these relative price changes should have set off alarm bells. Unfortunately, the Fed’s CPI inflation metric signaled “no problems”.
How Does the Dollar’s Value Affect the Global Economy?

The dollar has become a staple currency for the invoicing of exports, and as a transaction currency in foreign exchange markets. For example, Australia, Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia all have over 70% of their exports invoiced in dollars, even though only 25% of their trade is with the United States. Indeed, in most countries, the share of exports invoiced in dollars is larger than the share of actual exports to the United Sates. Clearly, the dollar has become the “vehicle” currency in international trade.
Thus, the dollar dominates the international markets. But, what does this mean when the value of the dollar fluctuates? Well, because of this “dollar standard”, producer prices around the world all move in the opposite direction of the value of the dollar (see the accompanying chart).
Indeed, since 2000, decreases in the value of the dollar have been clearly linked to increases in producer prices around the world. Given the recent loose talk of currency wars, it is little wonder that finance ministers in countries like China and Brazil are worried about a depreciating dollar affecting their producer prices, causing inflationary pressures.
inflation
Cato Institute
That said, the United States can only expect to stay insulated from elevated inflation in emerging markets for so long. Indeed, while the U.S. money supply remains under trend, leaving inflation in check (for now), we may see inflationary pressures begin to surface before long. That is, unless the greenback continues to finds renewed strength — which has been evident in recent months.
What Can Be Done?
When it comes to exchange rates, stability might not be everything, but everything is nothing without stability. The world’s two most important currencies — the dollar and the euro — should, via formal agreement, trade in a zone ($1.20 - $1.40 to the euro, for example). The European Central Bank would be obliged to maintain this zone of stability by defending a weak dollar (by purchasing dollars). Likewise, the Fed would be obliged to defend a weak euro (by purchasing euros).

The East Asian dollar bloc, which was torpedoed during the 2003 Dubai Summit, should be resurrected — with the yuan and other Asian currencies tightly linked to the greenback. As for other countries (Brazil and Venezuela, for example), they should adopt currency boards, linked to either the dollar or euro. Or, they could simply “dollarize”, by adopting a foreign currency (like the dollar, for example) as their own.
Until we return to a stable, rule-bound international monetary system, inflation will continue to be source of anxiety in economies and asset markets around the world.
This article appeared in the April 2013 issue of Globe Asia Magazine
KCPO - Market's Moves Getting More Short Lived- 4/2/2013






This market definitely kicked sand on my face as my previous week's bullishness was misplaced. The market opened last Monday with a solid black body Candlestick which engulfed the previous Friday's white Candlestick which put me on alert. The market went below the top band and took out my longs positions. I only entered new shorts on last Thursday as when price went below the middle band with the Stochastic complimenting by turning negative. I am placing my stop at above the middle band and when if price continues to go further downward, then I will adjust the stop to the bottom band plus 2/3 points.

By last Friday, the MACD and DMI have also turned negative. But as the ADX remains flat at 12's, I would continue to use the Stochastic to manage the trade. The 2366 support level is important as it was tested twice recently, if prices manage to stay above , it would mean the bulls may still remain valid. But if that level is breached, then bears would rule.

 
The weekly chart is still of contradiction as the Stochastic is negative and falling while the MACD remains positive and rising. The DMI is also negative but the D- continues to fall which is indicating the bears are getting weaker. The ADX continues to fall from above the DMI, this is continued to confirm the prior bearish trend has ended. Last week's Japanese Candlestick failed to close above the previous week's white body Candlestick, no I failed to get the confirmation of a subtle bull. The Candlestick remains inside the top and bottom band. Together with the contradicting indicators, this is telling me that there is no new trend yet in this market. Despite all these lack of trend readings, my heart has been pounding a bit harder as I notice the Bollinger Band is getting tighter and tighter. A sure sign that this market is going to blow soon.

 

The monthly chart is dominated by bearish reading as all the 3 indicators are negative . Price remains below the bottom band. Generally it is read as a sideway market as the ADX remains flat at 18's.

I remain bullish biased as the previously formed bullish divergence still remain intact but the 2366 level has to be watched closely.