Monday, December 27, 2010

Saxo Bank Presents Its 10 Black Swan Predictions For 2011

Saxo Bank has released its 10 outrageous predictions for 2011 and they include some notable tail-risk possibilities.

Among the subjects: What might happen between Congress and the Fed, who Apple might buy, and the future of the US dollar.

As FT Alphaville points out, Saxo's list got 3 out of 10 correct in 2010. Not a bad haul for a list meant to find the sort of Black Swans Nassim Taleb writes about.

The Congress stops Fed Chairman Bernanke's plans for quantitative easing 3.

U.S. politicians, including new House subcommittee chair on domestic monetary policy Ron Paul, lead a public charge against the Federal Reserve. When U.S. banks start to weaken under new mortgage concerns, Bernanke attempts another round of QE, only to have the Congress block their move. Source: Saxo Bank

Apple acquires Facebook.

Apple's Steve Jobs, seeking a means to get into the Social Networking space and out compete Google, buys Facebook. The deal gives Jobs' company access to Facebook's massive amount of users, sees FaceTime combine with Facebook chat, and helps the company to sell more iOS devices. Source: Saxo Bank

The U.S. dollar index rises to over 100.

Weakness in Europe and Japan is followed on by the failure of China's new domestic growth strategy to materialize. The result is a slowing world economy, and investors moving into the U.S. dollar. With a great deal of early 2011 shorts in place, the USD index rises 25% to over 100.
Source: Saxo Bank

The yield on the U.S. 30-year treasury sinks to 3%.

A combination of emerging markets demand, a Japanese style deflationary crisis, and the eurozone crisis forces more investors into safe haven U.S. treasuries. The result is a 30-year yield below 3%. Source: Saxo Bank

The Australian dollar falls 25% against the UK pound

The UK bounces back, with austerity cuts creating a growth environment, and the country is the fastest growing in Europe in 2011. Australia, simultaneously, grapples with a slowdown in China and a property market that looks likely to burst.
Source: Saxo Bank

Crude oil surges, but then drops in price by one third.

Crude oil surges on the belief that the U.S. economy is back. But, it doesn't come through, and the value of crude falls by one third towards the end of 2011. Source: Saxo Bank

The price of natural gas rises by 50%.

Natural gas turns around after years of losses due to its cheapness versus other energies and changes in U.S. government policy on exports. Source: Saxo Bank

The price of gold soars to $1800 as the global currency war rages.

The U.S. government, faced with renewed spending from consumers, finds its export growth strategy not working. Voters insist the devalue to make U.S. exports more competitive, and gold soars. Source: Saxo Bank

With Bernanke's support, the S&P 500 rises to a new all time high.

With Bernanke's support, the S&P 500 rises

                    to a new all time high.
U.S. investors buy in to Ben Bernanke's strategy and start getting in on the stock surge. Those investors start spending their earnings too. Businesses continue to pay down debt and the U.S. economy enters a full blown recovery. Source: Saxo Bank

The Russian RTS index nearly doubles, rises to 2500

A global bubble grows, oil, which Russia has plenty of, surges, and the Russian stock market suddenly looks deeply undervalued.

4.7萬聖誕餐,「這個價格並不貴」, 中國炫耀消費成風

(濟南市24日訊)中國近年來吹起聖誕節「奢侈風」,山東省濟南市一家五 星級酒店推出人民幣10萬元(4萬7000令吉)的天價晚宴;北京有酒店也提供每人8880元(4136令吉)的明星級 聖誕餐。但學者批評,這是暴富人群的炫耀性消費。
臺灣中央社報導,中國社會貧富差距懸殊,數據顯示,今年1至11月,北京 低收入家庭人均可支配年收入僅1萬2019元人民幣(5649令吉),就算普通工人整月不吃不喝,也不夠吃一頓高 價的聖誕大餐

香港媒體報導,推出10萬元人民幣聖誕大餐的濟南市索菲特銀座酒店公關部經理李晶說,「這個價格並不貴」,因為僅2晚的總統套房住宿就要4萬元人民幣(1萬8800令 吉)。

當記者查詢天價晚宴預定情況,李晶則以「商業秘密」拒絕透露,但指其它檔次的聖誕晚宴亦很火爆,稱「位置比較好的,(每 位)2988元和2388元的已沒有了,目前還剩數個1888元的席位」。
濟南只是個中國二線城市,中國網民都表示,多數民眾根本無法負擔,而且還有不少網民質疑,這類天價晚宴,只會淪為公款消費、行 賄的溫床。
據推出天價聖誕晚宴的酒店表示,訂餐者大致分為2類,一種是一些私企老闆買來作為禮物送給自己的家人,主要是加深和親人的感 情;另外一種是公司送給大客戶,作為一種年終答謝,或者送給優秀員工,以示獎勵。

國 民財富觀不成熟
在北京,不少酒店也推出平安夜豪華晚宴。除了有高檔次食材組成的聖誕大餐外,套餐內容還配有明星演出,包括中國著名相聲演員郭 德綱的相聲表演,頭等座位就要價每人8880元人民幣。
山東大學哲學與社會發展學院副院長馬廣海認為,隨著中國社會貧富階層迅速 分化,一批暴富人群成為「炫耀性消費」主體。

他說:「國民已經富起來,但國民的財富觀還不成熟,如何認識財富,如何管 理財富,還處在低級水平上。

KCPO:- Market may lose direction - 12/27/2010

The correction was a shallow one, it did not even reach the 20 days moving average (middle band). My stop was taken out last Thursday. The Stochastic has now turned around but price has not close above the upper band, so I would wait for 1-2 days before buying again.

As the ADX remains flat, I would pay attention to the Stochastic for trading signals. I also take note that the Bollinger Band is fast tightening, this may tell us the price range may get smaller and there may not be any new major direction soon.


The weekly chart has not changed much as price stays above the upper Bollinger Band and the MACD stays strong while  the ADX is still rising. The Stochastic remains above the 80's. All these are telling us the bull is intact. But I notice there may be a subtle sign that the bull may be losing its mojo as the D+ has failed to register a higher peak with a new high in prices. Though it may not necessarily be something for us to run for a nuclear shelter yet, but it may be one of those early signal that we should not get too carried away with all these super commodity  bull talks that have been going around these days.

FKLI:- Is The Market Waiting For Soemthing Big ? 12-27-2010

The lower Bollinger Band provided a good support, market went to test that level again on last Monday, then did a strong rebound on Tuesday which took out my stop. You can make a new bets on the long side as price closed above the upper Bollinger Band which was complimented by a Stochastic cross up. As the ADX now has fallen below the 20's and the D+ and D- seem to be wriggling with each other,   the trend is  is officially dead. So if you decide to step aside , it is perfectly alright.

I have drawn 2 parallel lines to mark out the current range. I would need to see prices moving out these 2 levels for the emergence of a new trend.

The weekly chart is not yet showing any great sell signal. For the bears, both the Stochastic and MACD stay negative and continue to fall. But price again managed to closed above the upper Bollinger Band and  the D+ is still above the D-. These 2 are on the side of the bull. I take note that the Bollinger Band has begun to "squeeze" and with the flat ADX , both are telling us there is no trend in this market.

Due to the year end holidays, most markets have been flat last week. It seems to me that everybody is waiting for something big to happen.


根據中國《南方報業》的報導,包括從銀行以及地下錢莊等五大管道流入中國的熱錢,從2010年9月份起每 個月呈現20~30%以上的成長,到了11月更呈現100%的成長。光是香港就有6500億人民幣正等著要兌成人民幣進入中國。但是人民 幣的升值幅度卻沒有大幅見長,外匯市場對人民幣甚至一度出現「溫和走低」的期待。為甚麼?

如果我們看得見金錢的高速公路,就會發現那並不是一條單行道。一邊是熱錢大軍拿著美元、港幣擠向中國大陸爭換人民幣,另一邊則有人拿著人 民幣爭換外幣。因為在相反方向的那條人民幣大軍,無限量承兌這些熱錢,所以人民幣沒有達成預期的漲勢,不僅是中共刻意打壓,還有市場的機 制在作用。所以這條金錢高速公路南來北往相反的二個方向,終點站各是甚麼?哪一個是睿智的?哪一個是愚昧的?

聽說世界上只有抱怨時運不濟,但沒有抱怨自己智商不足的人。每個人都認為自己是聰明的,已經採取行動者更是堅定自己信念的一群人。加入這 場貨幣兌換高速公路的兩方人馬,都認為自己是對的。那麼,誰錯了?筆者比較有興 趣不是湧向中國的國際熱錢,而是拋出手中人民幣的那群人。因為當大家都看漲人民幣,此時拋出手中的人民幣不是跟自己過不去嗎?究 竟是誰在拋出大量的人民幣換取大量的外幣?這是甚麼樣的「洞見」讓他們放棄大量的人民幣改持外幣?

換匯的幾大管道,首推銀行。除了銀行以外,地下錢莊是另一個重要的管道,而且是比銀行更寬鬆與快速的管道。遍及中國的地下錢莊正在無限量 地吃進外幣,拋售人民幣,尤其是香港邊境的地下錢莊更是熱絡。他們為甚麼要這麼做?

早在2000年的時候,筆者曾與北京大學的一位財經教授討論過人民幣升值的問題。當 時他以中國人均GDP以及國際貧窮線以下的中國人口數字,說明了人民幣非但沒有升值的空間,甚至有貶值的空間。如果拿掉外匯管 制,中國人即使不會把所有的儲蓄轉換成外幣,也會有很多人把相當比例的儲蓄轉為外幣。當湧出的人民幣大於湧進的外幣時,人民幣恐 怕不會升值,還要更加貶值。

在中共管控外匯的情況下,中國留學生為了籌足出國學費必須找地下管道,出國旅遊一樣必須與地下錢莊交易。而那些貪官帶往國外,動輒以百萬 美元計的外幣,當然是從地下管道進出。中共這個政權,不僅讓人民對本國貨幣沒有信心,官 吏更對自己的貨幣沒信心。凡是清楚中共在最近三年內增印了50%的人民幣,並且已經在中國點燃惡性通貨膨漲的火苗,任誰都會趁著 人民幣外漲內貶的時候拋出手中人民幣換取外幣。誰正在拋售人民幣?那是一群正在把中國資產轉成外幣資產,一群看清楚人民幣風險, 正在搶時間「買保險」的人。

Motown's Teena Marie Gone

It is sad to report Teena Marie, one of the staples of 80s R&B and a unique singer, has died at age 54. Teena reportedly had a major seizure about a month ago that led to her death.
A protege of Rick James, Teena Marie became one of the biggest stars of her generation, particularly among urban audiences, with monster hits like "Lover Girl," "I Need Your Lovin'" and "Square Biz."  After years away from recording, Teena made a big comeback over the last half decade and re-established herself as a formidable singer and songwriter.  Last year she scored a big hit with her album Congo Square.  She will be missed.

A few years ago, longtime soul music writer David Nathan wrote a short bio and interview with Teena, which he shared with us:

She is quite simply, one of a kind, a phenomenon of sorts in the world of soul music.  For an amazing twenty-five years - since her Motown debut "Wild And Peaceful" - hit the streets, Teena Marie has been delivering her own brand of classic R&B to a loyal, steadfast (and primarily black) audience.  Even though she hasn't had a new release since her "Passion Play" on her own Sarai label in 1994, Teena hasn't stopped working, touring constantly and offering those die-hard fans the kind of hardcore, intense emotionally-driven vocalizing that has made her a serious fixture on the music scene.

HOUSTON - Rhythm and blues singer Teena Marie, who was one of the first non-African American female performers marketed to the African American music buying community, has died at the age of 54, has learned from Lynn Jeter, a representative for the musician.

A cause of death for Teena Marie has not been released pending an autopsy by the Los Angeles County Coroner's Office, but she died in her sleep, TMZ reports. Police in Pasadena, Calif. tell TMZ they do not suspect foul play in her death.

Teena Marie's career was launched by Motown funk musician Rick James and the two later had an intimate relationship. James died in 2005.

Born Mary Christine Brockert in Santa Monica, Calif., Teena Marie signed with Motown when she was 19 years old, according to the biography written on her official website . She has been nominated for Grammy awards on four occasions.

Teena Marie is survived by her daughter, Alia Rose, who is credited on the singer's website as a performer on the 2006 album "Sapphire."

In 1985, Teena Marie's song "Lovergirl" peaked at #4 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, her most successful single to date.
With help from hip-hop record label Cash Money Records (as part of Cash Money Classics/Universal Records, under the Motown umbrella), Teena Marie released "La Dona" in 2004, ten years after her 1994 CD, "Passion Play." "La Dona" yielded the track "Still in Love," which reached #70 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart.
Following news of Teena Marie's death, several celebrities shared their thoughts about the singer on Twitter.

Actor/singer Tyrese Gibson tweeted, "Teena Marie was one of the GREATEST to ever do it.. "RIMH" Rest In Music Heaven .."
Rapper Snoop Dogg simply tweeted, "Rest in Peace Teena Marie."
Former NBA player and sports talk show host John Salley tweeted, "R.I.P Teena marie.. 54 years on this planet.. And she used her GOD given gift of Music so well.. She will be missed."

Monday, December 20, 2010

Maybe Malaysians Should Grow Up & Stop Whining

While many of Malaysians have been whining over our petrol , sugar and other prices going up due to Najib regime's withdrawal of subsidies. They should take a hard look at the current Iran case. This is exactly the rationale behind IMF and World Bank that member country should drop their subsidies slowly but surely. Looking back at Indonesia at 1998, once the government goes belly up, all subsidies will stop instantly. Civil havoc is almost guaranteed. So for Malaysians, it is better to take the bitter pill gradually now than to take a death leap later:-


Iran's cut in fuel and food aid raises protest fears

  Car drivers in Iran began queuing for petrol as soon as the cuts were announced
Iran has cut energy and food subsidies, risking a repeat of angry protests which followed fuel rationing in 2007.

The cuts, introduced on Sunday, mean a four-fold rise in the price of petrol and reduced subsidies for bread.
Each car will get 60 litres of fuel per month at a subsidised price of 40 cents per litre, up from 10 cents per litre.

Iran, whose fragile economy has been hit by United Nations sanctions, has said it pays about $100bn (£64bn) in subsidies annually.

In 2007, protesters set alight dozens of petrol stations after the system of fuel rationing was introduced.

News agency reports on Sunday said there was a heavy police presence in the capital Tehran, but there were no reports of trouble.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Saturday that the cuts in subsidies were the "biggest surgery" to the economy in 50 years.

Mr Ahmadinejad also said his government was paying $4bn in bread subsidies, which are being gradually phased out.

  Iran's oil-based economy has been hit by four rounds of UN sanctions, as well as those from individual countries over its controversial nuclear programme.
The government says that under its Subsidy Smart Plan, money from increased prices will be returned to the people through cash payments.

But some economists fear the increased prices, which also apply to electricity, water, and flour, will fuel inflation, already thought to be running at 20%.


Saturday, December 18, 2010

Paul McCartney draws all star audience for his first ever concert at the New York Apollo And Sang a Marvin Gaye's

Video: McCartney Sings Marvin Gaye at Historic Apollo Concert

Even at 68 years old he has still got it.

Veteran rockstar and former Beatle Sir Paul McCartney attracted an all-star audience for his first ever concert at the famed Apollo Theatre in Harlem, New York last night.

A proud Sir Paul performed for two hours to a celebrity-packed audience to celebrate Sirus XM radio's 20 millionth subscriber.

Milestone: Paul McCartney performs at the World Famous Apollo Theater for the first time, celebrating 20 million Sirius XM subscribers.

Paul McCartney, right, performs with lead guitarist Rusty Anderson
The singer songwriter, who started his career over fifty years ago, clearly demonstrated his pride at being able to play at the celebrated venue which once hosted Marvin Gaye and Sammy Davis Jr.
'It’s the holy grail,' he said early in the set. 'I dreamed of playing here for many a year.'

He later went on to play Marvin Gaye's Hitch Hike, accompanied by his backing quartet, out of respect for the stage and its history.

Date night: Kevin Bacon brought his wife Kyra Sedgwick for a night of music

Comedy: Jimmy Fallon and Jerry Seinfeld were spotted heading into the concert

He sung several Beatles classics including All My Loving and A Hard Days Night as well as songs by other artists like Jimi Hendrix.
He even paid special attention to the festive season by playing his 1970's hit Wonderful Christmastime.

The performance drew many of New York's celebrity clientèle including Kevin Bacon and his wife Kyra Sedgwick, funnyman Jerry Seinfeld and Sirus XM's own shock-jock Howard Stern with his wife Beth Ostrosky Stern. 

Shock jock: XM Radio's Howard Stern and his wife Beth Ostrosky looked glam before the show

Veteran crooner Tony Bennett and domestic goddess Martha Stewart were also amongst the crowd.

Late night chat show host Jimmy Fallon made the quick trip from his studios to the venue after taping his show for the night on which Paul McCartney was a guest.

The pair filmed earlier in the day before Paul had to prepare for the concert.

Old fans: Tony Bennett and Martha Stewart were both in great spirits as they entered the venue

KCPO:-  Correction Begins - 12/20/2010


As I wrote last week, since the ADX has been flat, I will keep my stop tight and  watch the Stochastic for possible new sell signal. Last Thursday price went below the upper Bollinger Band and additional confirmations from the Stochastic going below the 80's and MACD went negative came the following day. I sold this market and now place stop at 3646. I am keeping an eye on the fast closing gap between the D+ and D-, once the D+ goes below the D-, that would add to another sell signal.

Since the ADX is falling, I would place more emphasis on the Stochastic for the current trading signals.

The weekly chart has not flashed any sell signal except the black engulfing candlestick. The MACD is still rising with a supporting ADX. The Stochastic remains above the 80's zone. So at this time, I would call what is happening at the daily chart a mere correction first, that is unless thing get deteriorated further.

FKLI:- Charts Turning More Bearish But Still No Strong Selling, yet. - 12/20/2010


The market flashed a sell signal on last Wednesday when price closed below the upper Bollinger Band complimented by a Stochastic crossing down its 80's signal line. The MACD has also gone negative. The ADX remains flat which is telling us a strong trend is still not formed yet. The bottom band seems to be offering a good support last Friday, so if price is able to break below that level, I would think the sellers would gather more strength. Meanwhile place stop at 1512.

You should take note that this market has now formed a lower high, so if it starts to form a lower low, then a bear cycle may be in force.


The weekly chart has also turned more bearish as the Stochastic has now crossed below its 80's signal line which offers an initial sell signal. The negative MACD continues to fall. Unlike the previous week, price has closed below the upper Bollinger Band  this week. This could be taken as another initial sell signal. The only positive item is the D+ remains above D- which may be interpreted as a saving grace that the bull cycle may not be officially over. Take note the ADX is also flat, so there is still no great trend in this market.

At this moment, both the daily and weekly chart seem to be in agreement for a sell. The only item lacking is a trend. So we may continue to see the market correct itself downward a bit a day and then go back up another day. But I am watching the lower Bollinger Band support as a more confirming signal that the bear may begin to flex its muscle.

Fundamental items to keep an eye on will be the 2 Koreas and whatever next coming out from the Eu-land. The USD has been caught up in a range for the past 1 week, but the overall bias is still pointing for a major rally which would mean equities markets should suffer. 2 out of the past 3 years, USD seems to like make its big move near to Christmas day.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010


新書 揭饑荒血史 百萬中國人逃港

深圳是中國最早的經濟特區,在她絢爛的身後,隱藏一段幾乎被人遺忘的血淚史。深圳一名作者歷時22年採訪寫成,反映 1950至1970年代中國民眾偷渡到香港的歷史新書《大逃港》,最近在中國出版。



作者陳秉安採用大量廣東官方剛解密的文件資料,還實地採訪數以十計當年的逃港者、中國負責處理逃港事務官員、甚至當年開鎗掃射偷渡者的解放軍 等。


書中指深圳史上有4次大規模逃港潮,分別是1957、1962、1972和1979年,參與者來自全國12省市縣,主要是農民,後期有學生、 工人、知青乃至軍人甚至官員,主因是「貧窮和飢荒」。

至1978年,僅深圳全市就有557名官員參與偷渡,但成功逃出者為183人。偷渡方式以泅渡為主,途中處處危機,浸死、跌死、狼狗追咬等不 一而足。


一名逃港者說,當時的伙食沒肉和油,青菜都很罕見。為了充飢,他吃過禾桿、蕃薯籐和觀音土。當地民謠唱道,「辛辛苦苦幹一年,不如對面八分 錢」。

一名逃到香港的農婦說,「我死後,骨灰都不要吹回去。」1980 年,深圳成為中國首個經濟特區,部分原因來自鄧小平親見大量逃亡後的反思結果。


陳秉安透露想寫這書,起因是1987年任《深圳商報》記者時,採訪一家港資大 酒店開業儀式,總經理致詞時號啕大哭,原來他和父親早年逃往香港,途中父親背他過河,上岸前父親被子彈擊斃。到了香港他發誓要活 得有出息,今日事業有成,他把酒店設在父親喪命之地。

陳說:「我永遠記著採訪過的一寶安農民的話,他說:『改革開放這4 個字,你們是用筆寫的,我們,卻是用血寫的!』」



1960年代前,中國邊防軍可隨時開槍射偷渡者,不少偷渡客被打死在海灘、河灘或山頭。當時深圳催生一個新職業「拉屍」,鼎盛時有200多個 拉屍佬。


解密資料還記載1956年9月深圳「閘門山血案」,邊防軍用衝鋒槍掃射一群從湖南來的偷渡者, 老少婦幼數十人死傷

新書《大逃港》也稱讚,百萬偷渡客抵港後,大都艱苦奮鬥,慢慢融入 香港主流社會,部分人更創造財富神話。其中特別提到金利來集團董事局主席曾憲梓、壹傳媒集團主席黎智英、「期貨教父」劉夢熊等人。



孔 子好戰


首先,孔子是不是「和平主義者」?當然不是。論語「憲問」記述,齊國陳氏家族的首領陳成子,把 齊王簡公殺掉了。孔子聽了,去桑拿沖了個涼,上朝向本國的魯哀公告狀,要求自己的主人出兵討伐齊國──



因為陳成子是齊國的大夫,孔子也當過魯國的大夫。從西方的心理學來分析──西方白人發明的心理學,非常有用,許多問題,想不通的,用佛洛依德 來解釋就明白了,西方的「文化霸權」真好──孔子怕老闆魯哀公懷疑孔子終有一天也會「有樣學樣」,於是先下手為強,寧左勿右,建議魯哀公誅討 鄰國的反賊,這就間接證明自己忠君之心不變。

孔子心裏有鬼,這一招間接的拍馬屁,頗有韋小寶風格。但魯哀公反應冷淡:「公曰:『告夫三子。』孔子曰:『以吾從大夫之後,不敢不告也。君曰 『告乎三子』者。』之三子告,不可。孔子曰:『以吾從大夫之後,不敢不告也。』」

魯哀公沒上當,沒出兵打齊國,叫孔子報告本國的三位大夫。孔子這時承認了:因為我當過大夫,所以看見齊國的大夫這樣胡來,我不得不這樣表態。 結果,三名大夫,不願意發動戰爭,孔子自討了沒趣。

戰爭份子孔子如果硬有資格命名「和平獎」也不是不可以,「話語權」大過天嘛,對不對?第一屆得主,應是替天行道,出兵吊伐伊拉克吊伐薩旦姆、 拯救伊拉克人民於水火的世界前總統布殊。

以西方白人文明標準,論語證據確鑿,孔子沒資格做和平代言人,挖空倉底去找,主張「非攻」的墨子勉強可以,但廢黜百家,墨子遭到中國歷代邊緣 化,而且廣東人說「黑過墨斗」,哀思是「倒霉」。美國已經出了個小黑子,中國還要尊崇墨子,炎黃子孫的命運更加黑暗。

Do America Really Go To War Over Oil ?

North America: The New Energy Kingdom

With rising production from shale fields, the U.S. surpassed Russia last year to become the world’s largest supplier of natural gas. Shale now accounts for 10 per cent of the country’s natural gas production – up from 2 per cent in 1990. Chesapeake’s production from its next Texas project, expected by the end of 2012, will by itself supply the energy equivalent of 500,000 barrels of oil a day. _Globe&Mail

We know that Canada is overflowing with hydrocarbons from shale oil to oil sands to coal to natural gas to methane hydrates.... But the US was supposed to be "all tapped out" ever since oil production peaked back around 1970. Is it possible that all of the peak oil and peak energy doomers who foretold the end of US oil & gas may have been a bit premature?

U.S. domestic production for the year will be 140,000 barrels a day higher than last year (which was 410,000 barrels a day higher than 2008). Although the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says U.S. production will decline next year, who knows?

...As an article last month in The New York Times observed: “Just as it seemed that the world was running on fumes, giant oil fields were discovered off the coasts of Brazil and Africa, and Canadian oil sands projects expanded so fast, they now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In addition, the United States has increased domestic oil production for the first time in a generation.” Further still: “Another wave of natural gas drilling has taken off in shale rock fields across the United States, and more shale gas drilling is just beginning in Europe and Asia.”

...For natural gas, the U.S. has the four largest fields in the world: the Haynesville field in Louisiana (with production up by 77 per cent in 2009); the Fayetteville field in Arkansas and the Marcellus field in Pennsylvania (both with production up by 50 per cent); and the Barnett field in Texas and Oklahoma (with production up by double-digit increases). The EIA reports that proven U.S. reserves of natural gas increased last year by 11 per cent to 284 trillion cubic feet – the highest level since 1971.

Beyond shale oil and shale gas, there’s the awesome energy promise of methane hydrates, frozen crystals of water and gas that lie beneath the northern permafrost and beneath oceans floors around the world in quantities that boggle the imagination.

“Assuming 1 per cent recovery,” the U.S. Geological Survey says, “these deposits [in U.S. territory] could meet the natural gas needs of the country (at current rates of consumption) for 100 years.” _Globe&Mail

Gas producers are scurrying to find ways to export gas to cold, hungry customers in Asia and Europe. LNG -- liquified natural gas -- is one approach which is being developed for the export market. GTL -- gas to liquids -- is another approach that is likely to be developed inside the US within the next 10 years. Both approaches will allow for easier entry into the lucrative export markets. The GTL approach will also -- if economical -- allow gas to be converted into liquid fuels at a profit. That should help reduce North American dependency on overseas oil, once developed.
大家都自己人 , 不用演戏

诺奖颁奖当天中 挪签署石油协议



中国异见人士刘晓波缺席诺贝尔和平奖颁奖仪式当天,中海油田服务股份有限公司的欧洲分公司赢得了挪威国家石油公司为期5年的北海石油钻探合 同。



Sunday, December 12, 2010

FKLI:- Trade On Short Term Signals; Continue To Keep A Watchful Eye On The Bear - 12/13/2010

The market went up a bit but then nothing much spectacular. The ADX continues to drift downward which is telling us there is no trend in this market. Now as the Stochastic has gone into the overbought zone, I would suggest you should take out the long positions at higher or below the 2 day low. As the lowly ADX prevails, I would sell on any new Stochastic signal when it crosses down the 80's signal line.

The weekly chart Stochastic has flashed a sell signal as it crosses down the 80's signal line. The MACD stays negative. But price stays above the upper Bollinger Band and the D+ is still above the D-, so these are contradicting signals. In the coming week if price goes below the upper band, it would be a more confirming sell signal.

I must emphasize here again that the bearish divergence is still hanging over the daily chart. And if prices are to do a new high or a double tops here and then reverses, then we will see one more bearish divergence formed. Technically I am more bearish biased because of the divergence. Fundamentally speaking I continue to be very cautious on the EU financial crisis that continues to play out.  I do NOT think the richer EU countries can possibly hope to bail out every member that is going down the gutter. And the list of candidates are just getting mighty crowded by each passing week.

KCPO:- Maybe Some Corrections But Bull Remains Strong - 12/13/2010

As the ADX continues to stay flat, so I would still place more emphasis on the Stochastic. It is in the overbought zone, so I would want to keep my stop as close as possible. The upper Bollinger Band minus 5 pips at 3534 should be a reasonable place.

The weekly chart continues to stay bullish as ever. Both the ADX and MACD are still rising confirming the current trend is strong and intact. The candlestick is a healthy large body bar. There is nothing much to predict the presence of the bear yet.

Unlike many of the commodities which have been rallying the past few months, KCPO charts does not have anything particularly bearish yet. Though I am getting very bullish about the re-emergence of the US Dollars bulls and the possible demises of gold, crude oil and some of the grains, at least KCPO bull should be "safe" for the time being.

The "Obama Agrees to Extend Republicans’ Custody of his Balls" Joke Makes A Fool Out Of Islamic Saudi

Last Tuesday’s Borowitz Report about Obama announcing that he is a Muslim to please Republicans was taken seriously by the official Saudi media.  Read about this hilarious international incident:-

Andy Borowitz

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA (The Borowitz Report) - When The Borowitz Report announced earlier this week on Huffington Post and at its own site that President Obama was willing to admit he was a Muslim to please the Republicans, little did it know that it was triggering an international incident bigger than WikiLeaks.
The satirical headline, "In Latest Compromise with GOP, Obama Agrees He is a Muslim," was reported as straight news by the Saudi newspaper Al-Hayat, one of the region's most influential publications, believed to be controlled by the Saudi interior ministry.

According to an official statement from the satire site, "The Borowitz Report is proud to be the official news source of the government of Saudi Arabia. Better us than Fox News."
Read the hilarious news coverage of the Saudis' misunderstanding here.

The Los Angeles Times says Andy Borowitz has "one of the funniest Twitter feeds around." Follow Andy on Twitter here.

Formalizes Existing Arrangement, President Says

WASHINGTON  – In an effort to end what he called “the bickering and rancor in Washington,” President Barack Obama agreed today to extend Republicans’ custody of his balls for an additional two years.

“I know my critics are going to make a big deal out of this,” the President told reporters at the White House.  “But all this does is formalize an arrangement that was already in place.”

Mr. Obama said that extending Republican custody of his balls through 2012 “was like the Holy Grail for them, but I’m keeping my eyes on the North Star,” adding, “I have no idea what any of that means.”

Moments after the two-year transfer of Mr. Obama’s family jewels was announced, Vice President Joe Biden defended the President against critics from his own party: “I know he’s going to catch a lot of heat for this, but what he did took cojones.”

Emerging from the Oval Office after the deal was struck, Republican leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) pronounced himself pleased with the outcome: “The President put what he had on the table, and we came away with what we wanted.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) said that the agreement on Mr. Obama’s nuts would make upcoming budget negotiations go more smoothly: “This greatly reduces the size of the President’s package.” 


史上最大泡沫 中国经济或走向破灭

Blackhorse 资产管理首席经济学家理查德邓肯指出,中国经济是历史上绝无仅有的最大泡沫,可能正 在走向破灭。他曾经预计,信贷膨胀将引发全球衰退。

自2008年以来,中国货币供应量飙升50%以上, 在主要贸易伙伴陷入衰退的同时,中国经济仍保持了超过9%的高速增长。

邓肯说,经济扩张使中国国内企业的产能达到国内公众消费能力的3倍以上,而 中国的就业人群中,80%的人每天收入不足5美元(15.69令吉)。

邓肯是《美元危机》的作者,该书最早于2003年出版。他说:“中国的经济泡沫在历史上绝无仅有,一旦泡沫破裂,将引发经济大萧条,这种 风险切实存在。”

他 说,可能刺破中国经济泡沫的是美国选民对自由贸易的反对,上个月,美国失业率达到4月份以来最高水平。美国众议院9月份通过一项法案,允 许美国企业申请对 中国商品加征关税,来抵消人民币汇率低估的影响。他表示,在未来两至三个国会选举周期,美国的保护主义情绪可能会加重。

华 十足伪善

为刺激低迷的美国经济,美国联储局上个月宣布执行新一轮量化宽松政策,到明年6月份期间购买6000亿美元(1.88兆令吉)美国公债, 以降低借贷成本并抵御通货紧缩。中国央行顾问夏斌表示,联储局这一政策相当于不加控制地印刷纸币。


“中国人针对美国量化宽松政策指手画脚是十足的伪善行为,因为他 们才是量化宽松之王。”

他说,温家宝政府每年“凭空”创造出价值2500亿美元(7845亿令吉)的 人民币。为了防止人民币升值,中国央行一直在大量印刷人民币来冲销贸易顺差带来的美元。



维 基解密:中共硬要澳洲改国防报告


「雪梨晨驱报」(Sydney Morning Herald)刊登的部分电文披露,

1 名官员曾警告澳洲,若不修改2009年国防白皮书里对中共的评语,澳洲将「尝到后果」



澳洲同时点名中华人民共和国是区域内军力成长最快的国家,并质疑中共积蓄军力的背后动机。澳洲还说,中共的军事现代化发展看起来可能超越 应付台海冲突所需。






Sunday, December 5, 2010

China Blames Its Stock Market Plunge On An Unnamed International Bank

China is now blaming an unnamed international investment bank for the plunging Shanghai Composite, according to Caixin.

Mouthpiece publication People's Daily published a commentary today from Professor Shi Jianxun that accused an international bank of emailing investors and telling them to sell.

China's Securities Regulatory Commission had already started a probe into market manipulation after the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.16 percent in one day. Shanghai is down 11 percent over the past three weeks.

The article, titled "Where is China's stock market heading in the next two decades?" said rumors of an impending stamp tax were a factor but did not enough justify the plunge. Shi also argues that

big market fluctuations jeopardize social stability and harmony.

People's Daily published another bullish article last week, according to Caixin, saying the stock market was the best place to absorb excess liquidity.

Got all that? China wants the market to be higher and is coming just short of direct intervention.


      美國駐中國前大使李潔明出版回憶錄,記述中國政府發言人袁木的女兒在 「六




        袁木在「六四」後天天寫美國,他卻把女兒送去美國。特區大量親 中土共分
明的回憶錄是給西方讀者看的,西方人對於中國人的袁木式雙重性格,感到不可思 議,

「虛假」:「她像水一樣的假」(She was false as water)。在一大堆獨白裏,奧將
誓,你死期快到了」(Take heed of perjury;thou art on thy death-bed)。

Falsehood性格,刺中了要害。袁木是中國最準確的形象代表——他 說謊時面部肌肉絲
紋不跳的一張中國臉(A China Face)
,令西方人覺得像滿州一樣的「深不可 測」

KCPO:- Market To Go Higher ? -12/6/2010


Prices moved out of the Bollinger Band on last Monday with a complimentary  Stochastic turning positive which confirmed a buy signal. Take note the ADX has turned flat, so I would not get overly too excited on the bull yet. Though price may just go higher, but since the Stochastic has now reached the overbought zone, I would use last 2 days low minus 3 points as my stop.


The weekly chart remains bullish as the MACD continues to rise  and so is the ADX. This is telling us the bullish trend is powerful. Last week candlestick was a solid big body white candlestick after the previous week's doji, and it is closing above its prior fractal high of 3452,  so this is another solid confirmation of a strong bull.

A bigger picture here would be:- if prices start to fall from here, then we would have a bearish divergence formed at the daily chart and that is bad news for the bull. Like I say in the past, the presence of a divergence does NOT mean that prices would collapse or shoot up the next day. But it is definitely a flashing warning sign that you should STOP thinking the party can go on forever. Instead you should start getting on your toes and be cautious.
FKLI:- Conflicting Signals - Watch and Wait -12/6/2010

I would like to start with the weekly chart again. The MACD has finally crossed down and the Stochastic is about to cross down its 80's signal line. But price managed to closed back above the upper Bollinger Band. This is a conflicting signals. This is reinforced by the falling ADX. Please take note that the D+ has been falling indicating the bull is losing strength.


The daily chart is also as indecisive as the weekly's. Firstly the ADX has started to fall again, indicating there is not much trend in the market. But the Stochastic has turned positive again and price went back above the bottom Bollinger Band. The MACD has stopped falling and is turning upward again. So if you are still holding shorts positions , maybe you should close them off at the market. I would try a smallish buy when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band with the Stochastic crossing above its 50's signal line. If done,. place stop at 1495.

I would not want to commit large positions yet as both the daily and weekly charts seem to be pointing to a listless market. I think the market is not sure what they want to do because  there are both bullish and bearish news breaking practically everyday. There were a lot of expectations that the Euroland crisis may spread towards Spain soon. But last week their bonds was well received by the market which seems to be saying that the investors are still holding confidence in their economy. So maybe the show will be postponed by another week ?

But at this junction, maybe we should also hold our breath and watch for a while before committing money to the market again.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Australia and New Zealand View China As A Threat

U.S. Strengthening Old Alliances in Asia Pacific to Contain the influence of China

Written by Balaji Chandramohan    

While U.S. President Barack Obama was making a high-profile visit to Asia, U.S. Secretary of State; Hillary Clinton was rebuilding long lost friendships in the South Pacific by extending hands of friendship and military cooperation to Australia and New Zealand.
New Zealand is very much within the U.S. “Sphere of Influence” and Clinton just confirmed it by signing the high-profile Wellington Declaration. This is the first step in the right direction towards annual security talks of the type that take place between Australia and the U.S. and which underpin the decades-old Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) alliance of which New Zealand was a member until the break-up in the mid-1980s.
In fact, Clinton was not only given a traditional New Zealand Maori’s welcome called  Powhiri, the greatest gift that she could bring back to Washington was the release of the New Zealand Defense White Paper 2010 two days before her arrival. The White Paper envisaged greater Wellington’s presence in the South Pacific and strengthening the alliance with Washington and Canberra.
The ANZUS treaty—a military alliance which binds Australia and New Zealand and, separately Australia and the U.S. to cooperate on defense matters in the Pacific Ocean area—was previously a three-way defense pact. Following a dispute between New Zealand and the United States in 1984 over visiting rights for nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered ships of the U.S. Navy to New Zealand ports, the treaty lapsed between the United States and New Zealand, although it remains separately in force between Australia and New Zealand and between U.S and Australia.

Now the big question is what’s the reason for this paradigm shift? The answer lies in the drama played out in Suva, Fiji this year and during the course of the annual Pacific Islands Forum in Vanuatu (a small pacific island) this year. The revisionists’ attitude of Fiji’s Colonel Bainimarama and his eccentric positioning in the South Pacific with assured blessings of Beijing are not going well with Wellington and Canberra. The high point of Fiji’s courtship with Beijing was the presence of a high-level Chinese delegation on the eve of Fiji’s 40th Independence Day on October 10. There was no prize for guessing that the Fiji flag that was hoisted on the Independence Day was made in China. New Zealand and Australia would not like to have a “China Town” in Fiji with nuclear tipped submarines pointing towards it. They both need Washington to counter this new strategic threat.

Surprisingly, the Wellington Declaration has got a bi-partisan support with the New Zealand Labour Party (NZLP) clearly supporting it. There are three reasons for this. First, the NZLP is trying to move “center”.  Second, it has political ties with Fiji’s Labour Party, which spearheads the movement against Fiji’s military dictator. Third, the NZLP get its patronage from Australia’s Labour Party and the latter has recently ejected Chinese speaking Kevin Rudd with more Anglophone oriented Jullia Gillard (haha, I like the way he describes her) as Premier. Though Kevin Rudd is the Foreign Minister, he lost to Gillard on important policy matters, including on whether Australia needs to move right towards Washington or left towards Beijing.
Though in recent times Australia has been a stable ally, New Zealand has withered away from its traditional path.
Australia is a stable ally to Washington as it has to play a more pro-active role in the South Pacific and it needs the backing of Washington, including its veto in the UN Security Council as leverage against countries such as Fiji

Australia and Fiji were caught in a diplomatic entanglement in July this year when Fiji’s military dictator and present Prime Minister Commodore Frank Bainimarama expelled Australian High Commissioner Sarah Roberts on charges of interfering in the internal affairs of Fiji. Fiji’s increased aggressive posture coupled with a revisionist attitude has to do with the backing that it gets from Beijing. Fiji’s attraction towards Beijing is understandable as unlike Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. China doesn’t look at Fiji’s democratic credentials as a prerequisite to give it aid. Also, China can veto any resolution against Fiji brought by the United States and Great Britain. There is also a chance that China could use any of Fiji’s islands a military or naval base much to the irritation of the United States and nearby Australia. This has brought the alliance between the U.S. and Australia even closer.
New Zealand, on the other hand, has no such compulsion geo-politically. It was happy to play the role of younger brother to Australia in its affairs with Fiji. New Zealand was one of the strongest anti-nuclear weapons state and opposed to any nuclear tests being conducted by the U.S., France, and Britain in the South Pacific. The anti-nuclear posture increased when the New Zealand Labour Party came to power. This is was the reason why New Zealand severed defense ties with the U.S. in the mid 1980’s with an anti-nuclear legislation banning all nuclear armed ships near its water shores.

New Zealand had a compulsion to ban all nuclear submarine ships near its shores after the incident of the Sinking of the Rainbow Warrior took place in New Zealand's Auckland Harbour on July 10, 1985. It was an attack carried out by French General Directorate for External Security Agents aimed at sinking the flagship craft of Greenpeace, an environmental organization stationed in Auckland, port city of New Zealand.  Members of Greenpeace were trying to stop a nuclear test by the French Government at Mururoa Atoll in the South Pacific. New Zealand considered this an act of aggression and the NZLP banned all ships carrying nuclear weapons near its shore including American ones.

Another key reason why Wellington and Washington differed in their paths in the 1980’s was because of the two different world views that then leaders of the two nations held. The U.S. had a Republican President, Ronald Reagan and New Zealand was headed by left-center Labour Party’s Prime Minister David Lange. Now, times have changed with New Zealand having a right-center government headed by John Key and the U.S. having Obama’s center-left administration.

The Obama administration has understood the need to contain the influence of China in Asia Pacific. The administration’s paradigm shift occurred this year when China decided to behave in a more aggressive way in South China Sea and East Asia. The South Pacific is no exception as China is courting Fiji’s military dictator for the same reason; to gain a foothold in the region. As a result, the U.S. is strengthening old alliances in New Zealand and Australia by revisiting the ANZUS treaty. Could this be the start of a “Cold War” in the South Pacific between the U.S. and China? Only time will tell.