Friday, March 30, 2012

人民币结束长期持续升值 ?



春节过后,中国的外贸活动有所恢复。2月出口同比增长18.4%,进口增长39.6%,均较1月的负增速有大幅反弹。另外,由于进口增速大超过出 口,2月贸易逆差高达315亿美元,创下自1989年以来的新高。


由于海外经济难有大起色,中国自主进行经济结构调整,
预计今年月度贸易赤字的出现会更加频繁,全年顺差下降,减缓人民币升值步伐。笔者认为,人民 币长期持续升值的时代已经结束;今年人民币最多升值3%,而且会出现升值和贬值的双向波动。现在是加快人民币浮动的良机。

2月中国出口同比增长18.4%,进口同比增长39.6%,
符合笔者对于春节过后,中国的对外贸易活动会有强劲反弹的预期。可以注意到,无论是 1-2月,还是仅看2月数据,进口增速均超过出口增速,显示当前国内需求相比于外部需求来讲,仍显强劲。

进口方面,由于国内需求日益提升,2月进口出现强劲的恢复态势。
这不仅体现在大宗商品的贸易方面,包括原油和成品油的进口提速,也体现在生产资料 方面,包括机电产品与和机动车的进口有所提升。例如,1-2月汽车进口量大幅上升了33.2%。进口价格方面不同商品的走势存在分歧,原油和成品 油价格上涨了11.7%,而铁矿砂的进口价格则下降了12.9%

出口方面,得益于美国经济出现转好预期,
2月中国对美国的出口同比增速达到了22.6%,比1月回升17.1个百分点。对日本的出口同比增速达 27.3%,比1月回升了21.2个百分点。但欧盟需求仍然疲软,尽管2月对欧盟出口由1月下降3.2%,恢复至2.2%,但与其他国家相比,前 两月下降1.1%速度,仍显低迷。分产品来看,机电产品出口增长较强,而服装、纺织品、鞋类出口下降明显,显示中国出口结构升级正在进行。

展望未来,笔者预计,由于今年海外经济形势仍很难看到大起色,
仍将继续影响未来中国出口。而中国自身,由于劳动力工资上涨、人民币升值等因素,调 整依赖出口为主导的经济增长方式显然也更加重要。

当前欧洲已经出现积极信号,包括欧洲向财政一体化进程迈进、
欧洲央行两轮长期再融资操作(LTRO)注入1万亿流动性,欧元区财长会议正式批准希 腊第二轮救助方案等等,这无疑将有助于减轻全球金融市场动荡。但是,持续的紧缩政策下,今年欧元区经济下滑看来也将不可避免。

美国方面,由于房地产、就业市场数据都有转好现象,
带动经济恢复情况好于预期。同时,今年正值美国大选之年,扩张性的政策亦是选择。笔者预计,今 年美国经济增长将达到2.5%。

1-2月,由于进口超过出口,出现了42.5亿美元的贸易逆差,
而仅2月份,贸易逆差高达315亿美元,创下了13年来以来的新高。如果未来中国 出口放缓不可避免,则今后月度贸易逆差的出现将更加频繁。笔者预计,今年贸易顺差较去年减少,略超1000亿美元,1。5% 左右。这将减轻人民币升值压力。人民币升值长期持续升值的时代已经结束;今年人民币最多升值3%,而且会出现升值和贬值的双向波动。现在是加快人民币浮动 的良机。

笔者曾撰文指出(《中国经济如何避免硬着陆?》),
中国决策层一直注重在增长中解决问题。一旦今年海外风险或者三驾马车下滑超过预期,决策层便会 通过调整货币政策、财政政策、房地产调控政策、以及拓宽多种融资渠道等方式,避免中国经济硬着陆。

正在进行的“两会”上,也看到相关信号。
温家宝总理在人大政府工作报告中提到,今年GDP增长目标定为7.5%,是八年来首次低于8%。而此次下 调经济增长速度,也旨在为日后转变经济发展方式提供空间。考虑到过去八年中,中国的实际GDP增速都每每高于政府既定目标,虽然下调经济增长预 期,但不宜过度解读。笔者预计,今年GDP增速仍将高于目标1个百分点左右,有望达到8.6%。

此外,央行相关人士在“两会”期间回答记者提问中,
也表现出货币政策继续放松的信号。例如央行行长周小川提到,准备金率下调仍有非常大空间。实际 上,由于FDI放缓,贸易顺差下降,以及人民币升值的预期减弱,预计今年外汇占款将不及去年。在M2目标定为14%的前提下,如果今年外汇占款降 到2万亿,意味着今年国内贷款需要达到10万亿。因此下调准备金率仍有必要,预计上半年有3次下调。副行长胡晓炼女士表示,利率市场化会继续向 前,建立存款保险制度和银行硬约束是今后重点。

房地产方面,刚刚公布的房地产数据令人担忧。1-2月,
一线城市最多的东部地区,商品房销售下降高达31%。资金紧张,投资来自贷款的资金仅增长 0.6%,而自筹资金增长29.3%。新开工冰雪两重天,住宅开工同比零增长,而商业地产则高达32.4%。住宅开工低或将造成以后房价反弹压 力。笔者认为,稳定房地产销售与开工是稳增长的前提,预计今年房地产信贷过紧的局面将有所改观。央行副行长刘士余提到,今年将对个人购房者的差别 化住房信贷政策及保供给,对参与普通商品住宅的建设或开发给予支持。这可能会缓解房地产商资金面过紧的现状。

财政政策方面,正如笔者此前于文章(《中国两会前瞻:立足民生》
)中提到的,今年财政政策大有可为。随着今年结构性减税、保障房、卫生、教育、社 会保障等民生支出加大、且不必要的突击花钱现象有所减少,今年的财政支出将大幅增加,赤字占GDP比重将达到1.5%,真正做到宽财政。 
 

中国“九成亿万富豪拟送子出国”


胡润发布《2012中国高净值人群消费需求白皮书》
胡润发布《2012中国高净值人群消费需求 白皮书》

兴业银行与胡润研究院周二(3月27日)联合发布 《2012中国高净值人群消费需求白皮书》,称中国90%亿 万富翁有计划送孩子出国留学

这份白皮书在中国29个城市的高净值人群中进行,共获得878份有效问卷。

白皮书称,目前中国个人资产在600万元以上的高净值人群达270万人,平均年龄为 39岁。亿万资产以上的高净值人群约6.35万人,平均年龄41岁。

在高净值人群中,85%的人有计划送孩子出国,这一比例在亿万富豪中达到90%。

白皮书称,中国高净值人群的主要消费需求集中在教育培训、旅游、收藏、公务机、私人医 生等领域。

高净值人群每年的赠礼花费约15万,手表和红酒是最常见的礼品。香港成为中国高净值人 群购买奢侈品或高端消费品的绝对首选。

高净值人群获取信息的主要途径是网络,他们最关注的企业家微博前五位是:李开复、王 石、潘石屹、任志强和史玉柱。
白皮书中还提到,半数高净值人士有宗教信仰。

America Can Go Tell OPEC To Go Fuck Themselves

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CEO: In A Few Years, We'll Be Able To Tell OPEC - "Go Fuck Yourself"

Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon asserts that the world is fast-recognizing natural gas as the only viable alternative to coal consumption, and it will make us less dependent on oil.

"We're going to be able to say in the next 10 years, 'To hell with OPEC,' " said McClendon.

In a debate at The Wall Street Journal's ECO:nomics forum, McClendon and Atlas Energy CEO Edward Cohen debated the costs and benefits the fracking revolution have yielded.

Cohen echoed McClendon's sense that natgas was fast becoming a mainstream power source.

"In a very short time we've seen a five-percentage-point increase in the share of electrical generation from gas,"  Cohen said. "Within five years we should be very close to 50%."

Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon prefers a patriotic salve for the 32% drop in his company's share price, which has coincided with plummeting gas prices.

"The natural-gas industry has, to a large extent, been a loser because prices are so low. But the winner is the American people. I saw a statistic that the average American who heats with natural gas saved about $1,000 last year as against paying for oil."

Technically, the forum focused on the environmental impact of fracking (auto fuel prices were mostly ignored).

Cohen seemed to sum up that debate best:

"In New York and Pennsylvania, a Quinnipiac University poll showed two interesting things. Most people think fracking does environmental damage, and most people believe fracking should continue because it's essential to the welfare of the nation. In that nuance I think you have the discussion."

Japan Crashing ? It's NOT Going To Happen

Nomura economist Richard Koo is back!

He comes out with new notes every once in awhile, but he'd been in a rut for awhile, hitting on the same points about the folly of spending cuts in the U.S. and Europe.


This time he circles back to the area of his greatest expertise: Japan.


Because Japan has gone into trade deficit in some recent months, the calls for an imminent Greece-like collapse in the Japanese bond market have intensified. Hedge fund managers like Kyle Bass are hoping to make a monster return when this happens.


But it's not going to happen, as Koo explains:


Closer look at “JGB crash” argument


Moving on to Japan, proponents of a consumption tax hike in the taxation debate that has been going on for several months frequently invoke the specter of a crash in the JGB market.


The fact that Greece’s debt crisis triggered severe economic problems in the eurozone has lent added impetus to such arguments, and there are indeed numerous hedge funds outside Japan seeking to profit by shorting JGBs.


Those citing the risk of a JGB crash point to Japan’s recent trade deficits, aging population, and sharply declining savings rate as evidence that—regardless of past events, or lack thereof—Japan faces a major crisis in the next few years unless something is done.


Why JGB market has not crashed


Listening to their arguments, one would be forgiven for thinking that a collapse in the JGB market is imminent. What we need to remember, however, is that there have been similar warnings for the last 15 years, none of which came to fruition.


The biggest reason for this is that Japan’s corporate sector has become a massive net saver in spite of zero interest rates. While the economy weakens, the private sector—households and businesses—is saving a net 9.5% of GDP each year. The government’s large fiscal deficits are simply a reflection of this phenomenon.


This becomes clear when we look at flow of funds data, which show a pronounced inverse correlation between the savings of private businesses and government deficits. The correlation between the financial surplus/deficit of nonfinancial companies as a percentage of GDP and the general government surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP was –0.790 between FY1980 and FY2010, a very high figure. When private financial institutions are added, the correlation rises to –0.846.


Moreover, all of the periods in which companies increased savings correspond to economic recessions in Japan. This is because the fiscal deficits are a direct result of the recessions caused when rising corporate sector savings produced a deflationary gap in the private sector.


So basically, Japan really isn't in that much debt.


Public sector debt is just the flip side of private sector savings, and ultimately those private sector savings wind their way into Japanese Government Bonds.


The following chart, which you can click to enlarge, shows the big pickup in the net financial surplus of Japanese corporates, which again, is just the inverse of the deficits being run by the government.


Marvin Gaye: The World’s Sexiest Politician


SOMETIMES THE ANNOYING GUY AT THE PARTY IS THE ONE WHO WON’T STOP YAMMERING ABOUT POLITICS. But it’s not that politics can’t be sexy. It’s just the delivery. Now adding instruments will always make a message more palatable but giving that guy an acoustic guitar will not make his shit any less pedantic. If you’re going to sex up your political message, there’s only one man you call: Marvin Gaye. After all, Gaye’s sexiest record is also his most political. 1971′s What’s Going On also been called the best record of the twentieth century, and the best record of all time. Those are some accolades.
But Gaye’s politics also got him into trouble. Motown CEO Berry Gordy was not the least impressed with What’s Going On and shuddered at the thought of Gaye making another political record. As a result, the recordings that immediately followed What’s Going On were shelved and 1973’s sexually charged Let’s Get It On, was the official follow-up. Those lost political records didn’t surface until after Gaye’s death in 1984, but we’ve collected them here. So what the hell, forty years later America is still at war and the run for the White House is as contentious as it’s ever been.



You’re the Man” was the only lost song to breathe airtime before Gaye’s death but it was a  short lived run. Taking cues from the politically charged What’s Going On this funk-driven song was directed at Richard Nixon during a politically explosive 1972 presidential run. Initially planned as the title track to a full length record, it was shelved because it was politically too hot for Motown which was doing little to promote it.  It still went to 50 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart and hit 7 on the Soul Singles charts.

The World Is Rated X” was part of the shelved You’re the Man record project and is a direct descendant of What’s Going On’s infectious Inner City Blues (Makes You Wanna Holler) on What’s Going On. Both are scathing indictments of the hustle and perils of city life. Be careful with “Inner City Blues”- there’s a bass line in there that will make you pregnant if you’re not careful, and it’s by far the sexiest song about not being able to pay your taxes.  The former was written in 1972, but didn’t surface until 1986, two years after his death.

Gaye had a 35-year jump on Lady Gaga here when it came to the struggle for self-identity. The soulful ballad “Piece of Clay” was all about the struggle for self amid pressure to be something you are not. Given the context of Gaye’s life, the song turns out to be somewhat of a personal anthem. It’s no secret his father disapproved of his lifestyle and the reason this list occurs at all is because folks had other plans for his sound. Although this song was released shortly after his death, it didn’t surface again until it featured on the soundtrack for the 1996 film, Phenomenon, which has one of the strongest soundtracks in film.

Where Are We Going?” is where the plot really thickens if you’re a dyed-in-the-wool Marvin Gaye fan. Gaye turned to the legendary Motown production team of the Mizell brothers before releasing What’s Going On’s official follow-up, Let’s Get It On in 1973. Together they recorded three songs, one of which is this track, which didn’t surface for an astounding 30 years after its recording. It’s remarkably close to What’s Going On’s title track, both in its composition and in its socially conscious lyrics. When this song was shelved, the Mizell brothers handed it to trumpet sensation, Donald Byrd, where it featured as the last song on Blue Note label’s Black Byrd. The Mizells did the same with the second song they recorded with Gaye, putting it on Byrd’s next record as an instrumental version at the end of the record once again. The third song?…Well only the Mizell brothers know where that song is.

Finally, if you’re going to establish yourself as the world’s sexiest politician, you have to be able to sing the national anthem in a way that will melt clothes right off the listener’s body. But Marvin was able to do just that. Here is Marvin Gaye, a year before his death, singing the “Star Spangled Banner“. In this writer’s opinion, it’s the best the song has ever sounded, drum machine and all.


Oil Prices Lack Fundamentals?

 



Fundamentals


Crude Oil futures are extending yesterday's losses after the EIA reported a much larger build than expected. Inventories of Crude Oil jumped to 7.1 million barrels during the week, exceeding analysts' estimates to the tune of 4.5 million barrels. There have also been talks of releasing some strategic supplies both in the EU and the US, which has added to the bearish tone of the market. The last time President Obama released Oil from the strategic reserve, prices actually went higher, which may dissuade lawmakers from following through. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi wrote an editorial piece for the Financial Times that was widely read by both traders and the general public, in which he questioned the recent rise in Oil prices, stating there was no rational reason for such an increase. Mr. al-Naimi also assured the West that Saudi Arabia has plenty of spare capacity to meet "any eventuality", a phrase than many took to mean a military showdown between Israel and/or the West and Iran. All of these news items appear at a time when commodities have lost some of their luster among traders, making the market especially vulnerable if negative news items continue to be released.

Technical

Turning to the chart, we see the May Crude Oil contract trading near the lower end of its recent trading range between 104.50 and 110.00. The trading range has been tightening in recent sessions, resulting in a small wedge, or pennant, forming on the daily chart. The preceding move was higher, which gives a slightly bullish bias to the chart formation. Prices are, however, flirting with the lower end of the pattern, which could result in a downside breakout. The 50-day moving average coincides with support at 103.50, suggesting the market may need to gain some momentum to breakout to the downside. Oscillators are currently giving neutral readings.


 

Death Of Commodities Bulls ?

Commodity Groups Hit Hard with Industrial Metals Leading the Way Lower


The six  charts shows the CRB Index ($CRB) and five commodity groups. All are down today with the oil heavy CRB Index falling over 1%. The Industrial Metals Index (GJX) moved below its mid February low and the Agriculture Index ($GKX) fell over 4% the last nine days. 



CandleGlance $CRBCandleGlance $GKXCandleGlance $GJXCandleGlance $GYXCandleGlance $GVX


CandleGlance $GPX

中国银行业坏账最终将面对“清算之日”


尽管人们对中国各银行的不良贷款和即将迎来的厄运 感到担心,但这些银行的最新盈利数据并未给此类疑虑提供佐证。

过去一周里,中国多数大银行报告2011年净利润增长25%-30%——这种增幅按国际标准属于强劲增长,尽管在近年的中国颇为常见。

许多投资者相信,中国各银行在全球金融危机期间掀起创纪录的放贷热潮后(当时它们按照政府指令大量发放信贷以推动经济),最终将面对“清算 之日”。

不过,这一天尚未接近。多数银行报告去年不良贷款率下降。

中国农业银行(AgBank)表示,其不良贷款占总资产的比率从2010年的2.03%,降至去年的1.55%。业务重点放在农村的该行, 在各大银行中被视为风险最高。

中国最大银行——中国工商银行(ICBC)表示,其不良贷款率从 1.08%降至微不足道的0.94%。
这些银行成功地避免大量坏账,主要是得益于中国政府决定允许它们滚转大量本应在 去年到期的问题贷款。在批评人士看来,此举 无异于把问题推到未来,但银行坚称自己是审慎的

中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)董事长王洪章表示,该行在贷款分类方面非常尽职,内部采用较监管机构更高的指标。

尽管业绩强劲,但中国各银行股价在过去一周大幅下跌。在香港股市,农行、中国银行(Bank of China)和工行股价均下跌大约7%。

仔细查看银行业绩就会发现,潜在贷款问题的迹象相当明显。尽管这些银行的不良贷款率下 降,但它们拨备更多现金以防范违约的可能性。农行在2011年底的拨备/总贷款比率达到4.08%,高于2010年的3.4%,这 等于是在默认情况很可能恶化。

为准备好应对违约而需要募集更多资本是近年中国各银行难以摆脱的另一 个忧虑

数家银行将在今年发行新股。交通银行(Bank of Communications)率先行动,在两周前进行了90亿美元的私募这是近一年来全球最大规模的售股中等规模的兴业银行(Industrial Bank)上月在私募中募得42亿美元,而民生银行(Minsheng Bank)计划通过配股募集大约14亿美元。

但这些行动算不上一窝蜂的募资。中国四大银行的资本充足率(CAR)达到大约12%或更高,高于监管规定的下限,预期四大银行中没有一家需 要在今年募集更多股本。
中国公司很难在国外赢得生意



中国华为
澳 大利亚禁止华为参加宽带网络的竞标
北京政府星期三(28日)指责堪培拉当局阻碍在澳大利亚的中国公司 的正常运作。

此前澳大利亚政府以国家安全为由,禁止中国华为公司在澳大利亚的子公司参加国家宽带网络(NBN)的 竞标。

由一名前中国人民解放军工程师创建的跨国 电讯公司华为公司过去曾被美国政府禁止在美竟投原因是政治家们担心该公司与中 国军方和北京政府关系太近。

中国外交部发言人洪磊说:我们希望澳大利亚主管部门能向中国公司提供一个平等和无排斥的市场环境,而 不是戴着有色眼镜、用安全的名义妨碍中国在澳公司的正常操作。

洪磊还说,中澳近年来的投资合作不仅为中国公司走向全球提供了机会,也大大促进了澳大利亚的经济、社 会、公众福利的发展。

中国是澳大利亚的重要出口国,澳大利亚之所以能在此次全球经济衰退中得以幸免,很大的一个原因就是中 国对澳大利亚铁矿和煤等产品的巨大需求。

华为公司周二反击堪培拉政府禁止该公司参加国家宽带网络竞标的决定。

华为公司澳大利亚子公司董事会主席、退役海军少将约翰·罗德在澳大利亚金融评论报上说,华为公司对澳 大利亚不是一个安全威胁。

罗德说,他在上任之前对华为公司作过广泛细致的任前调查,包括与华为创始人任正非的数次会谈。

澳大利亚媒体说,禁止华为竞投的决定,是 政府在情报部门“强烈的劝告”下作出的

澳大利亚总理、外交部长、国防部长等的电脑,全都在去年3月遭到被认为是来自中国的黑客入侵。

中国否认所有的指责,斥之为“毫无根据和 出于不可告人的目的”。




华 为公司“走出去”面临困境


《金融时报》周三(28日)发表社论指出,中国规划电讯工业是促进对外贸易的七大战略产业之一。但是来自中国境内的网络犯罪和间谍活动没有受到阻挡,而变得很猖獗。这种形势 使中国公司很难在国外赢得生意。

华为公司是世界上第二大电讯设备供应商,在竞争一项价值420亿澳元的澳大利亚国家宽带项目时遭到拒绝。澳大利 亚政府担心,华为公司一直被指称与中国政府和军方保持关系。

在美国,华为在与其它巨头公司业务往来中不断受到排斥,澳 大利亚担心让华为公司进入国家宽带网络,就等于让北京窃听澳洲的商业和军事机密。


《金融时报》的社论指出,虽然华为努力消除这样的担忧,
但是做得还远远不够。当西方的数据库受到网络攻击的事件 不断增加之际,华为却对公司所有权结构采取回避的态度。
华为的创始人曾是中国人民解放军的一名军人,董事会主席与中国国家安全机构有联系该机构负 责监视中国互联网,从电邮到短讯,无所不包

华为公司否认有这种联系,
但是这些报道让一些国家的政府感到不安。即使那些已经批准华为作为供应商的政府,也对 华为在他们国家网络上普遍存在感到紧张。
最大担忧

源自中国和俄国的网络犯罪和间谍活动已经超过恐怖活动,
成为发达国家的最大安全担忧。
中国坚决拒绝就这些网络攻击事件作出交代,因此中 国公司总是成为被怀疑的对象。由于中国对保护西方投资者的知识产权采取松懈的态度,其中一些中国企业还从中获 利。

各国政府决不应允许利用国家安全的借口为保护主义提供藏身之处。
华为公司已经在几十个市场中证明,其产品质量 好,竞争力强。

但是北京必须承认,只要在打击网络犯罪活动方面不承担责任,
中国公司就总是会遇到很高的障碍。


China Rolling Over AUD 




Consider the Australian dollar

China is rolling over right now -- take a look at FXI, PGJ, HAO, and the Shanghai composite-- and it is taking the entire industrial metals complex with it.

This is not only a very bearish development for the Australian dollar, it's bearish for a wide swath of "commodity supercycle" stocks: Base metal miners, steel producers, oil service, and so on.


For a long time after 2008, we had "all or nothing" type markets, where risk assets seemed to have a correlation of 1. Either everything was up, or everything was down.


Now, finally, we have some massive divergences -- which is great news for a balanced long / short trading portfolio. 

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Chinese Manufacturing Stats Wreaks Gold

Fundamentals

Gold futures have turned negative this morning after weak economic data from China. The Chinese PMI number showed a slowdown in manufacturing in the month of March, which would be the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The poor economic number offset China lowering reserve requirements for some banks, adding liquidity to the monetary system. Commodities as a whole have seen weakness lately, lowering many market observers' expectations for inflation. Energy markets have weakened on concerns that stockpiles in the US are rising and in light of the economic risks facing China and Europe. Signs of economic stability to go along with increases in liquidity could turn things around for the Gold market; otherwise, we could see prices continue to drift lower.

Technical Notes

Turning to the April Gold chart, we see prices consolidating after breaking through support at the 1680 level. The next area of support comes in between 1600 and 1615. A violation of this support suggests prices may test the 1550 level on the downside. It is interesting to note that the momentum indicator is moving down at a much sharper pace than price and RSI, hinting at further weakness in the near-term.

Motown, by way of Australia

Aussie
              group Human Nature, which has been playing Motown music
              for years, will perform at Fisher Theatre.
Aussie group Human Nature, which has been playing Motown music for years, will perform at Fisher Theatre. (Denise Truscello)
For the four-man Australian singing group Human Nature, playing the Fisher Theatre Saturday isn't just another gig. It's Detroit — Motown — the source of their deepest inspiration.
The Aussies had 22 years of platinum success Down Under, going back to their origins as a boy band. Later, they recorded albums of their own material. But it wasn't until they released an album of Motown classics in 2009, "Reach Out," that they got any traction Stateside. (Their latest album, just out, is "Human Nature: The Motown Album.")
When the group visited Detroit a few years back, touring the Motown Historical Museum as guests of Martha Reeves (they were in town to cut a duet with her), there was only one thing left on their bucket list.
"One of our dreams was to come to Detroit and play in the city where all this incredible music is from," says Andrew Tierney, Human Nature's high tenor voice. "Now it's come true. It's like going back to the holy grail, hallowed ground, and performing the music."
For the past few years, the group has been ensconced in a permanent residency at the Imperial Palace hotel, secured for them by none other than Smokey Robinson, who's almost a member of the group.
"They had been singing Motown music for a long, long time," Robinson says. "In their part of the world — Australia, New Zealand, Fiji — they're the Beatles, man; all their albums go platinum. They just hadn't gotten the exposure in America, which is where I come in."
The Motown legend met up with the group when they came to visit him in the recording studio in Los Angeles. The group asked Robinson to sing on their album, and later, to come help promote it in Australia.
Barely taking a breath, Robinson explains in a barrage of enthusiastic patter how it went down.
"When they came to the studio to see me, they sang some a cappella, and they were awesome! Then when I went to Australia to see them, they're just as awesome visually as they are vocally. I thought, they hadn't been exposed in the United States like they should have been, so we made a deal for them to come to the States, and I got them two weeks in Atlantic City. Then I got them transferred to Las Vegas because Atlantic City and Las Vegas are transient towns, where people come from all over the world and all over the country. I figured they'd have the biggest audiences being in those towns. I got them a year's deal in Las Vegas at the Imperial Palace hotel, they did so great until we got a two-year extension and the man named the club after them! That's just how awesome they are."
Tierney and the group members are delighted with their Motown mentor; although Robinson says he'll come pop in for a few of their shows, the group knows not to count on that.
"He's so passionate about people wanting to discover us," Tierney says. "He puts his name on the show, but we don't want people to be disappointed if he's not there. He pops in every now and again; but on this tour, he's not going to be part of it … maybe at the end."
As a four-man group, Human Nature hits the Four Tops, Temptations, Robinson and Marvin Gaye catalogs the hardest.
For Tierney, two of the most enduring songs are still "My Girl" and "Ain't No Mountain High Enough."
"There's a few songs that transcend all genres. 'Ain't No Mountain,' whether you like pop or soul or rock, these are undeniable songs that everybody loves."
One of the best parts of performing, Tierney says, is that Human Nature is reminding people — if they ever knew — about the sheer depth and breadth of the Motown catalog.
"A lot of people have come up and said, 'I came to the show, but I didn't realize all these songs are Motown. I didn't realize I loved Motown!'" Tierney says.
That shouldn't be an issue when they perform at the Fisher.
"I'm sure Detroiters will know all the songs," Tierney adds.
"Other people, they might think these songs are just part of an incredible soul era."
In the great Hitsville tradition, Human Nature doesn't just flat-foot sing, but dances, too, with some moves a subtle homage to the Temptations and Four Tops. They studied old Tempts and Tops videos at the suggestion of a friend in Australia.
"When we did the Motown records, we did go back and look at some old Tops and Temptations videos, not to copy it but be influenced by the moves. We had some choreographer friends of ours put the moves together."
"Oh, I'm tired when I watch them," Robinson notes.
The group is often asked to do the Temptation Walk, which they haven't yet worked up.
"I didn't realize it was such a favorite," Tierney says with a laugh. "We'll have to try it."
For Robinson, the group's success is another indication that what he and a bunch of like-minded teens and 20-somethings did 50 years ago was more than just a passing fad.
"I travel all the time. I still do concerts, and I meet people in the airport from Tanzania, and they tell me how they love Motown music," Robinson says. "I play in countries where English is not even the basic language; but people sing the songs that I wrote, and it's one of the joys of my life. I see a group like Human Nature, four guys from Australia who grew up listening to and being influenced by Motown music, and that's just a thrill."

Men Also Like To Gossip And Marvin Is Dragged Into It

 

You didn't hear this from me, but ...

"Men are more likely to gossip about celebrities
            (hard to believe, yet apparently true)." "Men are more likely to gossip about celebrities (hard to believe, yet apparently true)."
Marvin Gaye famously declared that he heard it through the grapevine. “Oh and I'm just about to lose my mind,” he sang – and that’s really what tends to happen, isn’t it? Gossip is the kind of thing that’s titillating to hear and fun to participate in … unless you’re the subject of the latest workplace tittle-tattle.
Some researchers believe it’s beneficial. In one major study conducted by scholars at Indiana University, workplace interactions and meetings were videotaped. The researchers concluded that gossip assists newcomers by helping them determine who wields the greatest power, something that’s often hard to detect from an organisational chart. Other studies show how gossip can build bonds between co-workers and enhance the sharing of information.
A common misconception, though, is that gossiping is the domain of women. An analysis published in the Review of General Psychology reveals there is very little difference in the degree to which the genders gossip. But there is evidence to suggest that what they gossip about differs.

For example, outside of work, men are more likely to gossip about celebrities (hard to believe, yet apparently true), as well as sports figures, politicians, and casual acquaintances. Women, on the other hand, are more prone to gossiping about family members and close friends. But in the workplace, both genders are just as guilty of the crime.
And it is increasingly viewed as a crime. Dr Peter Vajda, a cognitive psychologist, sees gossip as a form of “workplace violence”. He reasons that people who gossip do so out of fear. They use gossip as a defense mechanism to protect themselves from divulging their true self. In other words, by attacking others, they don’t need to fess up to their own insecurities.
Still, it might not be the friendliest gossip, but almost all of it is accurate. In their book Rumour Psychology, professors Nicholas DiFonzo and Prashnat Borida state that 95 per cent of rumours in the workplace turn out to be truthful.
There was a case last year where an employee, who was sacked for gossiping, lodged an unfair dismissal claim with Fair Work Australia. She won. The commissioner awarded her employer (a childcare centre owner) to pay compensation of $10,000. Even though the owner had made it clear to all employees that his business had a ‘no back-biting policy’, it still wasn’t enough to justify the sacking of the employee.
But then there was another case, also from last year, that had the opposite outcome. An employee was sacked for spreading rumours about her boss’s sex life and alleged drug use. The colleague she confided in, staggeringly, was the boss’s fiancé. After having her employment terminated, the employee took the case to Fair Work Australia, but the commissioner sided with the employer.
One of the differences between the two cases appears to be that the gossip in the first case was based on stuff that was true, whereas the gossip in the second was false. There was also the matter of intent. In the first case, the employee was genuinely venting about a disagreement she had with a co-worker. But the employee in the second case sought to actively cause trouble in the workplace.
One thing’s for sure. Gossip has been around for ages. In this Egyptian hieroglyph from 1550 BC, a man lets his employer know about the spread of nasty gossip and he even suggests ways of tackling it.
So how do you tackle it? The Society for Human Resource Management, based in the United States, suggests there are four actions managers can take:
  • Educate employees on the damage caused by gossip
  • Give employees meaningful work that reduces their idle time
  • Tell all employees that gossip won’t be tolerated at work
  • Confront people who repeatedly break the rule
Failing that, just hope it isn’t about you.

 


北京威嚇投白票中央追究 白色恐怖籠罩香港商界

香港特首選舉進入倒數階段,建制派候選人唐英年和梁振英競爭激烈。據悉北京當局為求力保梁振英當上特首,除派國務委員
劉延東南下,逼選委投梁一票外,中聯辦一眾官員更空群而出,逼挺唐的商界選委轉投梁,令商界瀰漫 “白色恐怖”。

 有泛民立法會議員呼籲被威逼投票的選委,挺身揭破北京的違法行為。

北京要梁振英當選,防特首選舉流選局面,一定要逼挺唐及未有決定的選委投梁振英一票。有指劉延東充當“宣旨欽差”,近日南下深圳要求選委按 中央指示投票。

連日來傳劉延東入住的紫荊山莊保安森嚴,其間多輛掛上中聯辦車牌的房車進出。

 除劉延東發功外,中聯辦官員近日馬不停蹄約見商界選委,要他們投梁振英一票,言語間近乎威嚇。

選委感不安

有不願透露姓名的選委說,他至今仍感不安,“他(中聯辦官員)說 中央不想見到流選,投白票是反中央,勾結敵對勢力,中央一定追究責任。”

該官員言談間“提醒”該商界人士,“你還有生意拍檔、朋友家人在中國有生意和做事,你不想因為這樣影響到他們。”


該商界選委又指,不少選委遭遇相同,“大家(對中聯辦)很反感,但敢怒不敢 言”,形容商界瀰漫著一片“白色恐怖”,“沒人敢再講支持唐英年、沒人敢不答應中聯辦要求, 亦不敢到處和人講梁振英或者中聯辦壞話,怕讓中聯辦知道大件事。

料最少兩回合才有結果

雖然中聯辦在幕后大力發功,試圖為梁振英取得601票,令他在3月25日的第一輪投票中勝出,但據了解,不少選委預計至少要第二輪投票才分勝 負。

特首選舉倒數兩天,唐英年陣營繼續力保原有支持者不跳船。雖然唐營有信心拿到近400票,並相信可獲余下逾300個未提名選委的部分支持, 但中聯辦攻勢厲害,部分選委已有跳船之心,唐營最終可能只保住逾400票不失。

與此同時,梁振英卻未算獨佔鰲頭,因除原有305個提名票外,余下300個未提名的選委中,情傾梁振英者不算多;就算余下選委全投梁振英, 他以601票當選的可能性仍有危機,有唐營中人指:“很多選委都不喜歡他,就算中央逼,都可能投白票。”

由于預計唐、梁均無法在第一輪取得601票當選,要進入第二輪投票的機會極大。

另一方面,建築師學會會長林光祺指,界內較年長的成員傾向支持唐英年,較年輕的則支持梁振英,相信各選委在投票當日只會依據個人意願選擇。

若連續流選政務司長代理

3月25日特首選舉一旦“流選”,便會在5月6日重選,若再流選怎么辦?而現任特首曾蔭權的任期將于6月30日屆滿。

政制及中國事務局發言人表示,政府有兩手準備,若5月6日仍然流選,政府會在6月17日再重選,假若連這次都流選,令7月1日特首出缺,按 《基本法》第53條,屆時特首的職務會依次由政務司長、財政司長及律政司長臨時代理。

港大民調:75%市民接受流選

香港特首選舉進入倒數2天,最新一項調查顯示,高達75%受訪者接受特首選舉流選,冀特首選舉推倒重來,寧投白票也不投梁振英的自由黨亦坦言 流選非壞事。

香港《蘋果日報》委託港大民意研究計劃在本月19至20日、即唐英年踢爆梁振英曾在03年高層會議上倡用防暴隊對付示威者,以及壓縮商台牌 照的“臭史”后,訪問了1053人,結果高達75%受訪者表明接受流選,稱不可接受流選的只有19%,反映市民似乎已看清梁振英的“真面 目”,認為唐、梁二人也不可取,寧要流選。

梁振英民望續領先

唐英年大爆疑似行政會議機密抹黑對手梁振英,令認為3名候選人都“選不下手”、支持選委投白票迫使流選的市民比率大增。

約200名泛民主派選委週三晚開會后重申,會在“3‧25”特首選舉首輪投票“不投梁、不投唐”,但對投白票、不投票或繼續投票給泛民候選 人何俊仁持開放態度,若無人過半需進行第二輪投票,泛民選委將集體離場抵制,轉為參加場外的反對小圈子選舉集會。

近日多項民調顯示,梁振英的支持度繼續領先兩名對手,但3人都不支持或支持投白票的比率則大增。

其中由嶺大公共管治研究部在本月17至20日進行的民調顯示,梁的支持率由上月的40%多大跌至只有31%,唐亦由20%多跌至18%,何 的支持率微升至7%,而“3個都不支持”的比率則由上月的8%,急升至33%,即比支持梁的比率更高。


中聯 辦郝鐵川為梁振英威嚇《信報》李澤楷


今屆特首選舉中,中聯辦如何高度介入選舉,甚至用盡威逼利誘之手段,要選委投梁振英一票,傳媒早己廣泛報道,只是,沒有人想過,西環連傳媒也 不放過,不惜公然恐嚇傳媒老闆,不要報道不利梁召集人的新聞!

事源何俊仁昨日在商台節目中,引述一名報館負責人稱,他的秘書收到中聯辦官員來電,批評該報的報道誣衊中聯辦,何俊仁未有交待是那間報館,也 未有透露接到「白日凶鈴」的老闆是誰。

不過,不用半天,事件主角及詳情已在圈子中廣泛流傳。A說從不同人士收到的消息,涉事報館為《信報》,收電話的人是老闆李澤楷,致電者為中聯辦宣傳文體部部長郝鐵川,那是大約半個月判郝致電小小超,據知他當時不在港,由秘書 接聽,郝竟在電話中大興問罪之師,質問《信報》為何經常發表抨擊中聯辦為梁召集人拉票的報道,為何不支持梁召集人做特首云云。

據A說小小超未有知會報館中人,若非鐵頭何爆料,相信不會有人想像得到,西環己是明目張膽至此,公然為了支持梁召集人,向傳媒老闆施壓,打壓 新聞、言論自由,A說雖然事件未必和梁召集人有關,但是,西環挺梁已不是秘密,梁召集人未做特首,西環己是如此無視香港新聞自由,一旦梁召集 人登上大寶,西環,會如何霸道?

晚上,香港記者協會發出聲明譴責事件:

「香港記者協會獲悉,中央政府駐港聯絡辦公室官員曾致電《信報》老闆李澤楷先生,在未能即時與李澤楷先生通話後,向李的秘書表達對該報報道的 不滿,有關做法,形如公開向傳媒施壓,本會對中聯辨官員此等打壓新聞自由之舉予以強烈譴責。

中聯辦職責是聯繫內地部門在港事宜,以及促請香港與內地的交流,並向內地反映港人意見,不應插手香港事務,現時竟公然向傳媒施壓,明顯違反中 央政府的一國兩制治港方針。

本會認為,若中聯辦認為報章報道違反香港法例,可以透過正常及合適的渠道尋求公義,而不是直接與傳媒老闆接觸及施壓。

新聞自由是港人珍視的核心價值之一,新聞自由若受衝擊,香港《基本法》保障的其他人權自由亦可能受影響,本會要求中聯辦嚴格遵守一國兩制,尊 重及認真履行《基本法》保障的新聞自由。 」

真的擔心,3.25之後,香港傳媒,恐怕連小罵大幫忙也不能,只可以做順民,只能全面唱好政府及偉大祖國!

沒有新聞自由的香港,還是香港嗎?
KCPO - May Go Sideway Before Next Push-3/26/2012
 

The market jerked last Monday and I took out my long position when price went below prior day low. I did not commit new short as price did not manage close below the upper Bollinger Band except on last Thursday. But Friday prices did not follow through, instead it went back up above the top band. I would want to go back to buy again when the Stochastic turn positive again. If done, I would place stop initially at 3357 , then take it higher to the top band minus 2.

You should take note of the ADX which has gone flat, so we may see the market sideway for a while.



The weekly chart ADX has finally begun to rise which is a good sign. With the MACD positive and above its zero signal line, the bull is getting on a firmer footing. If by month end we can see price close on or above 3500, then we may really witnessing the beginning of a brand new bull cycle for KCPO. 3500 is the monthly top band.

Recently I get amused when I read about how Malaysians flocking to buy Australian and UK properties. They are committing large chunk of their capital or huge bank borrowings to engage into something that is illiquid. But whenever I talk to people about "investing" or trading the futures market, their instant reaction is always "it is very high risk". Without a proper education, practically everything under the sun is "high risk". Imagine if your parents have not educate you how to cross the road! Futures market is highly liquid as there are so many players,  Eg. FX market has near to USD 4 trillions turnover daily. We can close off our position and get our money back within 48 hours. Try that in property market.

But in every market, timing is the ultimate and sole requisite to make profit. Chart wise and educatedly speaking , KCPO may be in its initial stage of a new bull cycle (notice I use the word "may be" as nothing is GUARANTEED in this world) but Australian property, commodities, economy has been in a bull cycle for the past 1.5 decades. Are they already at the top of the cycle ? Will China bring Australia down ? Will EU affects UK ? I think many Malaysians are not looking hard enough.
FKLI - Still No Clear Direction- 3/26/2012

 

The market went to test the middle Bollinger Band twice during the past week but did not close below the level. So my planned shorts did not materialize. Instead market went back above the top band with the Stochastic turning positive again on last Wednesday which triggered a new long position. I did not engage a large position as the MACD is still negative and the ADX has been staying flat for the past 4 days at 19's. I continue to view this market as a listless market. Place stop at1575 initially, as when the market moves higher, tighten stop to 1585 or prior day low minus 2 .



The weekly chart indicators are still contradicting as the Stochastic is negative and falling while MACD is positive and rising. The D+ seems to be recovering and begins to expand outward again. This is showing the bulls are regaining some strength. Japanese Candlestick is a white body which closing higher than the previous week's closing. With the last week's Doji and a black body Candlestick 2 weeks ago, this week's white body is confirming a reversal. But as ADX is still flat, we should see a slowing creeping market.

Though with the presence of a bearish divergence, it looks like the "market god" is still willing to let the market collapse just yet. So I would continue to play to whatever new signals first before another major sign appear across the horizon. But meanwhile, keep this in your mind:- there is nothing too bullish about our economy as the government is still not willing to bite the bullet by overhauling our nation's economic structure wholeheartedly but continue to give out goodies when we cannot afford them. Another point you should remember is: as the US economy continues to improve , many hot monies will soon leave those so called emerging market and start go home.

Many of Malaysian media may has completely missed out a news last week on the "new Middle East" item as America is confirmed sitting on a hundred years oil and gas reserve and she has already became a net oil exporter. Try visualize  this:- when America starts to pump money into construction of new oil refineries and pipelines (something they have stopped doing so for 4 decades), American economy will enter a brand new phase of super boom. Strange as it may sound, that is exactly what the Eastern Feng Shui masters and western astrologers have been predicting. 2013 will see America begins her next "shock and awe" cycle of super bull.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Taking A Tour Of The Oracle's Office


Warren Buffett

Investing guru Warren Buffett is well known for his penchant for his hometown of Omaha and living a simple and modest lifestyle. 
 
Last month, for CBS' Person To Person show, Warren Buffett took hosts Charlie Rose and Lara Logan on a tour of his Berkshire Hathaway offices in Omaha, NE.

Just a brief walkthrough shows just how personal Buffett's office is—the walls hang with sports memorabilia and photos of family. There's an amusing anecdote that accompanies every item in the office.

Buffett has been investing out of his Omaha offices for nearly 50 years—apparently his landlord keeps the rent low. So come see where all the magic happens.

Buffett is the guide on this tour, Berkshire Hathaway has been based in this building for over 50 years.

Buffett is the guide on this tour,
                            Berkshire Hathaway has been based in this
                            building for over 50 years.

A cabinet of football memorabilia.

A cabinet of football memorabilia.

A University of Nebraska at Lincoln football helmet signed by former coach Tom Osborne. There's also a miniature Buffett next to it.

A University of Nebraska at Lincoln
                            football helmet signed by former coach Tom
                            Osborne. There's also a miniature Buffett
                            next to it.

This sign is inspired by the Notre Dame football locker room, which has "Play Like A Champion Today" over the top of its doors.

This sign is inspired by the Notre Dame
                            football locker room, which has "Play
                            Like A Champion Today" over the top of
                            its doors.

Buffett has his employees touch this every morning, so they can be as successful at investing as Notre Dame is at football.

Buffett has his employees touch this
                            every morning, so they can be as successful
                            at investing as Notre Dame is at football.

Down a hallway of sports-related photos. Buffett is pointing to a picture of former Red Sox Ted Williams, he takes a lot of tips from Williams' book 'The Science Of Hitting.'

Down a hallway of sports-related
                            photos. Buffett is pointing to a picture of
                            former Red Sox Ted Williams, he takes a lot
                            of tips from Williams' book 'The Science Of
                            Hitting.'

Buffett with Tiger Woods. Buffett was his caddy for an event in Iowa; Buffett joked that Woods gave him a bad tip.

Buffett with Tiger Woods. Buffett was
                            his caddy for an event in Iowa; Buffett
                            joked that Woods gave him a bad tip.

Now down to Buffett's office!

Now down to Buffett's office!

The office is filed with photos of people that are important to Buffett.

The office is filed with photos of
                            people that are important to Buffett.

Hanging prominently is a 1942 campaign photo of Buffett's father when he ran for Congress.

Hanging prominently is a 1942 campaign
                            photo of Buffett's father when he ran for
                            Congress.

Notice how the office has no computers, the phone is the most prominent piece of technology. Buffett says all he needs is paper documents and the phone.

Notice how the office has no computers,
                            the phone is the most prominent piece of
                            technology. Buffett says all he needs is
                            paper documents and the phone.

Buffett spent $100 to take a Dale Carnegie course when he was 21 because he was terrified of public speaking. The course helped him propose to his wife.

Buffett spent $100 to take a Dale
                            Carnegie course when he was 21 because he
                            was terrified of public speaking. The course
                            helped him propose to his wife.

Next to the Dale Carnegie certificate is the Presidential Medal of Freedom Buffett received from President Barack Obama in 2010.

Next to the Dale Carnegie certificate
                            is the Presidential Medal of Freedom Buffett
                            received from President Barack Obama in
                            2010.

A baseball signed by legends such as Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, etc. Buffett said it is a present from a friend.

A baseball signed by legends such as
                            Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio,
                            etc. Buffett said it is a present from a
                            friend.

There's a World Book Encyclopedia set on Buffett's shelf.

There's a World Book Encyclopedia set
                            on Buffett's shelf.

It's no secret that Buffett and music mogul Jay Z are good friends, here's a signed copy of Forbes from when both Jay Z and Buffett graced the cover.

It's no secret that Buffett and music
                            mogul Jay Z are good friends, here's a
                            signed copy of Forbes from when both Jay Z
                            and Buffett graced the cover.

Buffett shows off photos of his children.

Buffett shows off photos of his
                            children.

There's a bonus photo at the bottom: Microsoft founder Bill Gates with the Berkshire Board of Directors, sharing milkshakes!

There's a bonus photo at the bottom:
                            Microsoft founder Bill Gates with the
                            Berkshire Board of Directors, sharing
                            milkshakes!

That's all now, bye bye!


Maybe this will compensate for the fact
                            that we don't get to see Buffett's
                            house>