Never Follow The Black Swan !!!

It is basically because he, like most "experts" do NOT know how to read the market and he goes to put the blame on a poor animal for those terminal turning points. All the "experts" went on to cheer on his book because his Black Swan Theory let them have their excuse :-

BTW, If You Had Followed Nassim Taleb's Advice In 2010, You Would've Gotten Crushed

Earlier today, Black Swan author Nassim Taleb's appeared on CNBC.  His key takeaway quote: "I own stocks because I don't trust Treasury bond."  This got the financial bloggers all a-twitter



The Bloomberg article dated February 2010 is titled Taleb Says 'Every Human' Should Short U.S. Treasuries and it speaks for itself. From the article:

It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific.

Here's a look at how the 10-year Treasury Note yield performed since Taleb advised "every single human being" to short Treasuries.  Basically, if you followed Taleb's advice, you'd be toast.

US 10-Yr Treasury Note Yield

NASSIM TALEB: 'I Own Stocks Because I Don't Trust Treasury Bonds'

Nassim Taleb is on CNBC talking about Ron Paul, the Fed and the U.S. economy.

Taleb author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan has already endorsed Ron Paul. Here are excerpts from the interview.

On Ron Paul

Taleb said he backs Paul because of his stance on deficits, the Fed, militarism and bailouts:

"I watched the election and realized that there is something wrong that is going on. Only one candidate, Ron Paul seems to have grasped the issues and is offering the right remedies.

...From my risk based vantage point I think one candidate represents the right policies at least when it comes to the big four and that candidate is Ron Paul."

Taleb went on to say that as a taxpayer who didn't want to be hoodwinked and as a citizen of the U.S. he believes it is his duty to come out and support Paul who he thinks has staying power.

On the U.S. economy

Taleb wants to see the U.S. government cut spending and bring its budget under control:

"You have to start with government budget that is in control. You start with that, it's an unconditional. You don't gamble with future generations money. You don't gamble with hyperinflation. Like what we're doing to the Greeks. We're doing it to the Greeks. We should do it to ourselves. That's 90 percent of the problem."

On investing

Taleb opts for stocks and doesn't invest in treasuries. While stocks are benefiting from Fed moves Taleb said he is afraid of hyperinflation and opts for stocks and real estate instead. He also owns some euros.

"I own stocks. Why? Because I don't trust treasury bonds. I happen to own stocks. I'd rather have a dividend than a coupon."