KCPO - May Go Sideway Before Next Push-3/26/2012

 

The market jerked last Monday and I took out my long position when price went below prior day low. I did not commit new short as price did not manage close below the upper Bollinger Band except on last Thursday. But Friday prices did not follow through, instead it went back up above the top band. I would want to go back to buy again when the Stochastic turn positive again. If done, I would place stop initially at 3357 , then take it higher to the top band minus 2.

You should take note of the ADX which has gone flat, so we may see the market sideway for a while.



The weekly chart ADX has finally begun to rise which is a good sign. With the MACD positive and above its zero signal line, the bull is getting on a firmer footing. If by month end we can see price close on or above 3500, then we may really witnessing the beginning of a brand new bull cycle for KCPO. 3500 is the monthly top band.

Recently I get amused when I read about how Malaysians flocking to buy Australian and UK properties. They are committing large chunk of their capital or huge bank borrowings to engage into something that is illiquid. But whenever I talk to people about "investing" or trading the futures market, their instant reaction is always "it is very high risk". Without a proper education, practically everything under the sun is "high risk". Imagine if your parents have not educate you how to cross the road! Futures market is highly liquid as there are so many players,  Eg. FX market has near to USD 4 trillions turnover daily. We can close off our position and get our money back within 48 hours. Try that in property market.

But in every market, timing is the ultimate and sole requisite to make profit. Chart wise and educatedly speaking , KCPO may be in its initial stage of a new bull cycle (notice I use the word "may be" as nothing is GUARANTEED in this world) but Australian property, commodities, economy has been in a bull cycle for the past 1.5 decades. Are they already at the top of the cycle ? Will China bring Australia down ? Will EU affects UK ? I think many Malaysians are not looking hard enough.