Saturday, May 30, 2009

CPO - 1/6/09 - May get choppy

During the beginning of last week, more selling did came out and push price all the way down to 2350. Then it started to recover and recouped 200+ points. If you have not take out all your shorts out when price went back and cross up the lower Bollinger Band, then you should do it when market opens on the coming Monday.

Now with the Stochastic has crossed up its 20 signal line and price closes above the lower Bolinger Band, you may want to engage some long positions, but keep a tight stop at 2505 since the MACD has not confirmed a buy yet. And revert back to sell if price crosses down below the lower Bollinger Band again as the MACD is still negative.

The weekly chart's ADX has started falling which is confirming the end of the prior bull trend. This could be the end of it or at least a temporary end to it. The MACD is still positive but has begun to lose steam while the Stochastic has begun to fall. It would be vital to monitor whether it will cross down its own 80 signal line which usually is the initial sell signal. An interesting item is the price where it did went below the upper Bollinger Band during the week but somehow manage to close back up above it, thus rendering the weekly sell signal void. So my conclusions are :- 1) watch the Stochastic whether it will cross down its 80 signal line and 2) whehther coming Friday's closing price will go below the upper Bollinger Band - both will confirm a new sell signal.

But I take note of the fast falling daily ADX which may soon go below its 20 signal line. this could bring CPO into another sideway situation before any new direction is to take effect.

FKLI 1/6/09 - Remain cautious

As same as the previous week, I would continue to be cautious on the long positions as prices reach new high but the MACD has not. Unless this bearish divergence is erased, I think you should be quick in taking your profit off the table.

The weekly chart is telling us something else as the previously sleepy ADX has begun to rise which is confirming a trend is in this market. The MACD has crossed up and remain above its zero signal line which is usually more bullish. And as long as prices remain above the top Bollinger Band, I cannot find any evidence that this bull is dead.

But since the daily chart is not too encouraging, you should place your stop at 1031 to protect your profit. Since market has already reached the 1,060, its next upside target would be 1,110

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Pelikan - Blowout artiste ?

This stock has been ranging for a while now, but the picture is getting more interesting. My proprietary ZZZZ indicator (1st panel )has been triggered since April 28th.. This indicator is used to forewarn a possible explosive move would come soon. But this indicator do not foretell the direction of the move, I have to look at the other indicators for hints.

The MACD has now crossed above the zero signal line which is positive. But the most exciting items on both its daily and weekly chart is the presence of a bullish divergence which is telling us that the sellers have already exhausted their fire power and any time now the bull may just return and break their bones.

Please note 1.05 has been a strong resistance and support. So watch a closing of above this price which should signal the return of the big charging bull on this stock. Meanwhile it may just continue to rangebound which will help to tighten the width of the Bollinger Band which usually is another sign that the stock is getting itself ready. But in cas it closes below 0.87, then you can forget you read this (at least for a while until the next buy signal comes along )

The more conservative upside targets are 1.60, 2.20 and 2.70.

I trade solely technically and ignore fundamentals (financials and outlooks etc), but stocks are slightly different from futures which I would have to look at whether the owners/management are snakes and whether they owe a lot of money . Stocks can end belly up, futures cannot. This company is not much - a stationary company. (Did I hear you yawn ?)

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

KL Stocks - Public Bank & Iretex

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

KL Stocks - Ranhill & Zelan

Monday, May 25, 2009

KL Stocks - Acostec,KBES,KSL,Pacmas & Scientex

Saturday, May 23, 2009

FKLI -25/5/09 - Take caution

Even though there were 4 sell signals blinking last week, I was not too sure about the end of the bull yet. At mid week price went back up and closed above the upper Bollinger Band which effectively stopped out your sell positions and reversed to buy again.

But same as last week, I am also NOT to convinced about this new upside move as the bearish divergences are still present. Most probably this would be the last push to the next target of 1,060 before the whole thing is over. Since the current signal is long, we shall follow suit but I would keep my stops tighter at 1,024 for the new long positions.

As far as the weekly chart is concerned, the bull is still intact as price stays above the upper Bollinger Band and the MACD stays positive and above its zero signal line.

In conclusion, unless the bearish divergence setup is erased, I remain extreme cautious with any new long positions. This is especially so as price is fast approaching the next upside target area.

CPO - 25/5/09 - More selling may come

As I forewarned here last week on the bearish divergence on the Stochastic and the MACD, prices just tanked from 2,700 to 2,500. As the Stochastic has just crossed down its 50 signal line and price just may crosses down the lower Bollinger Band in the coming week, all of which are triggering new sell signal.

Another new trigger sell signal would be the D- may be crossing above the D+, many intermediate term traders will sell on the following day when that happens when price goes below the signal day low.

The weekly chart still fails to confirm the daily bear moves as the MACD is still rising and prices remain above the upper Bollinger Band. But the weekly ADX has turned flat which is telling us the prior trend has stopped for the time being. The initial sell signal coming from the weekly chart may be the Stochastic crossing down its 80's signal line and price crosses down the upper Bollinger Band of 2,450. These should be new sell signals and shall compliment the current sells in the daily chart.

Place your stops at 2,630 in case the market act up against you.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

KL Stocks - Eti Tech Corp,Aeon & ILB

The good news from BOE

The U.S. v. U.K. battle continues. Remember all that talk about how the taxpayer might actually see a profit from all these bailout efforts? You know, when the Treasury or the Fed or whatever sold all this stuff back to dumb moneyinvestors with a long-term perspective at prices higher than they paid? Well, The Bank of England is a bit ahead of US there.

The Bank of England revealed yesterday that it had racked up record profits of almost £1 billion in the year to February as its fee-earning activities burgeoned amid the global financial and economic turmoil. During a crisis that has brought some of the mightiest forces in global banking to their knees -- and some to collapse and oblivion -- the Bank emerged as having thrived while famed commercial institutions foundered.
Figures released yesterday in the Bank's annual report showed that in the 12 months to February 28 it raked in profits before tax of £995 million. This marks a more than fivefold rise from £197 million in 2008 and is the biggest figure since its establishment in 1694.
This little note after the main article made our day.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

CPO-18/5/09 - Bear returning soon ?

Price had closed below the upper Bollinger Band on last Thursday and Friday, so I would immediately take out my positions to take profit. As mentioned here last week, I was getting worrisome as bearish divergence are already formed at both the Stochastic and the MACD. This is usually warning us strong selling could just be around the corner. On last Wednesday, prices popped up and hit 2799 without closing above it. This has now formed another extreme bearish chart pattern called a double tops. The ADX has also started falling while above both the D+ and D- which is confirming to us that the prior bull trend may has already ended.

As in last week, again the weekly chart candlestick jumps out at you. It is again one of those not too nice type. A Doji star gaps above or below the previous bar which should signal reversal with the next bar. Or we could also call it a long upper shadow which is typically bearish especially when it occurs near a high price level or at a resistance level or when the market is overbought. But then again we are not yet getting any other confirmations as the MACD is still rising and above its zero signal line; the ADX is still rising and prices maintain above the upper Bollinger Band. So we are NOT getting any complimentary sell signal to back up the daily's sell signal.

With the daily MACD, Stochastic negative cross down and prices crossed down below upper Bollinger Band - you would had placed in some initial sell positions. Keep 2758 as stop. With all the above mentioned powerful bearish signs found in the daily chart, I would enthusiastically add on more positions for more aggressive sells once the weekly chart's confirmation kicks in.

FKLI -18/5/09 - Retracement ?

This market has again stalled and came down and took out our stops at 1006. The daily chart is getting a little bit worrisome for the bull as the Stochastic has already formed a bearish divergence with a series of lower peaks while the market went higher. This may be warning us that some strong selling may emerge soon.

And there are a few sell signals already in place. they are:- 1) the Stochastic has crossed down its 80's signal line which may be taken as an initial sell signal. 2) Price has crossed down through the upper Bollinger Band. 3) The MACD has crossed down its own moving average and 4) Most important of all is
the ADX which has already started to drop while it is above both the D+ and the D-. This is usually a very solid confirmation telling us the prior trend has ended ( at least temporarily).

If you belong to the more conservative kind of trader, you may want to wait for price to close below 996 before selling. But if you are one of those more aggressive type, the above should has already given you 4 good reasons to sell. Keep 1023 as stops. As we still have not obtained any confirmation from the weekly chart, I would only assume that the current move as a retracement or a consolidation, therefore I would not want to sell too aggressively yet. This market may find support at 990 and 960.

Even though the D+ failed to cross up the ADX as what I mentioned I would like to see last week, the weekly chart MACD continues to stay positive and above its zero signal line while price maintains above the upper Bollinger Band, I have no reason to call the bull is dead. So we may monitor this chart for another week or so before deciding what could be its next directional move. As I notice there are still are many charts of stocks that are still begging for a major bull moves, so I think this could be too early to turn bearish. But of course for us technicians , what comes out in the charts dictate all.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

American Idols do Motown

When the American Idols were sent to Motown's Detroit famed Studio A , they were mentored by Motown's boss Berry Gordy and Smokey Robinson:-

American Idol's Motown Recordings, Judged

Idoltop9_l As part of the celebration of American Idol's Motown Week, the legendary label has—for the first time!—opened its vaults and allowed outsiders to sing over the original Motown studio tracks. For contestants, this is both good and bad. On one hand, there's no risk that a singer will be dragged down by a middling arrangement. On the excuses! And while a singer covering this material will always suffer next to giants like Marvin Gaye, the Temptations, and Stevie Wonder, those comparisons are heightened when their voices are surrounded by the very drum fills, finger snaps, and guitar obligattos that are on the original hit records. So how did they do? Here's a rundown of all the tracks, which you can hear and purchase right now on iTunes.

Caveat: I'm not an American Idol watcher, so I haven't had the opportunity to be charmed by the contestants' winning personalities. And because they have a Mission: Impossible kind of task here, they'll be graded on a curve.

1. Adam Lambert, "The Tracks of My Tears"
"People say I'm the life of the party" is the opening line, but Lambert is moaning before the song even starts. Smokey Robinson's vocal had a little ambiguity, a little buoyancy (listen to the hint of the smiling embouchure when he sings the word "joke"). At no time in this song does Adam sound like he's attended any party; you will not need to take a good look at his face. Still: pleasant enough, and emotionally dedicated without going overboard. B+

2. Allison Iraheta, "Papa Was A Rolling Stone"
Sung by a lady, so gone are the Freudian overtones in the tribute to mom-loving and dad-hating. And because it's the Temptations on backup vocals, Iraheta gets to actually sing with the marquee names! Sassy and bluesy inflections, so I suspect that she owns Bonnie Raitt records. B

3. Anoop Desai, "Ooo Baby Baby"
Falsettos are kind of like whispers -- everyone sounds a little bit more alike. Which means that Desai sounds a little more like Smokey Robinson, and the narcotic arrangement means that he gets a major assist from the Miracles, who envelop his lead with a cozy gauze. A-

4. Danny Gokey, "Get Ready"
He's going for that Michael Bolton thing, I guess? At 1:04 you can hear him spitting on the microphone. I don't recall that being one of Eddie Kendricks' tricks. C-

5. Kris Allen, "How Sweet It Is (To Be Loved By You)"
What a great arrangement this is, with those buttery female vocals! Allen's ad-libs are bizarre, although I like the weird la-la-las at the two-minute mark, right before he sounds like he's getting angry and freaks me out a little bit. He's putting in a lot more effort than James Taylor did. But sometimes effortlessness has its advantages. B-

6. Lil Rounds, "Heatwave"
Martha Reeves had one of the most powerful voices of all Motown singers, so much respect to Ms. Rounds. The second verse soars! If this song didn't already exist in perfect form, I would listen to this. A

7. Matt Giraud, "Let's Get It On"
The "Unforgettable"-ish singing-with-the-voices-of-the-past finally gets super-creepy, when he and Marvin Gaye trade "my body wants you"s. There's a picture of Matt that pops up on my iTunes, but thankfully no Marvin Gaye hologram. C

8. Megan Joy, "For Once In My Life"
She sounds like Nelly Furtado on a bender. Stevie Wonder's harmonica solo is intact, which gives us a too-brief respite. D+

9. Scott MacIntyre, "You Can't Hurry Love"
Bizarrely, whoever mixed this put the backing vocals much further up in the mix than they are in the original, which lends a heretofore unrealized "traffic jam" effect to the song. Quality-wise, MacIntyre's rendition falls somewhere between Phil Collins' take recorded in 1982, and Kenneth the Page's version, which only exists in my mind. It's closer, alas, to the latter.

KL Stocks - Sunrise, Sunway, Tgoffs and Unico

CPO -11/5/09 - End of the bull ?

Last week I mentioned there is contradictions between the daily and the weekly chart. I also noted in the daily chart a flat ADX may be taken as a sign that the prior trend may has ended. Even though last Monday, price broke high but it was unable to follow through for the remaining of the week. The new high caused the MACD to go back to positive territory again but since there was no follow throughs, the MACD has started to fall again and we may see another bearish cross down again.

I am getting increasing cautious about this market since 1) it had already hit its higher upside target of 2,800 and 2) prices hitting new highs but both the Stochastic and the MACD have failed to follow suit with higher peaks. Instead the Stochastic has formed 3 lower peaks while the MACD may be forming the 2nd lower peak soon. This divergence usually warning us that the market is losing steam and it may collapse soon. Since we also have a flat ADX which is above both the D+ and D- which is usually a reliable overbought signal.

In the weekly chart, the first thing that jumps into my attention would be its spinning top candlestick which is a small real body (little price action between its open and close). During a bull rally or near a significant high, a spinning top means the rally is losing momentum and can be interpreted as the bull could be in trouble. BUT since price remains above the Bollinger Band and the MACD, Stochastic and the ADX continue to rise, so I cannot say that this bull is finished at this stage of time.

Summary:- the weekly chart still has no sign that the bull is finished but the daily chart is getting more bothersome, so I will place a stop at 2629 to protect profit in case the market collapses. But since crude oil rallied last Friday, I would not too surprise if CPO shot to the next upside target of 2830 before correcting.

FKLI - 11/5/09 - Back to business

After stalling for the previous week, the market resumes its prior trend and got higher. I got cautious because of the stalled trend last week and set a stop at 980 which was not hit but instead it goes higher and broke 1003. Now the Stochastic oscillator has gone back to positive and both the ADX and the MACD have started rising again. This is usually where many market analysts got it wrong because the moment they see the Stochastic or the RSI went above the 80 signal line , they call the market "overbought" and expect the market start falling. As I have mentioned here several times, once the ADX is rising and stay at high areas (usually >30), we would rather look at the MACD than the oscillators as their intrinsic weakness which render them quite useless in a powerful trending market. Thus they may remain "overbought" for days, weeks and even for month and price will keep reaching new highs.

The weekly chart is getting more and more bullish as the MACD is now above its zero signal line which is usually a more reliable buy signal. And now there may be another major buy signal coming in force and that is the rising D+ may be crossing up the ADX. This is usually taken as another major buy signal. Since the weekly prices also maintain above the upper Bollinger Band, I have nothing bearish to comment on this chart.

As price remains above the upper Bollinger Band, I shall place my stop at 1006 and I am looking at its next upside target of 1060. Unlike the DJIA, since Kloffe's weekly chart did not register any prior divergence before the current bull rallies, I cannot say that this bull rally is the beginning of a brand new bull cycle, but I remain cautious that this may just be a wave B correction up cycle in a major bear cycle (right side at the attached diagram) . If I am correct in my reading, then we should expect one more round of nasty sell down sometime in the near future before the sky is fully cleared.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

The world's most expensive record

Frank Wilson 45 fetches nearly $40,000

No, it didn't bring in the $100,000 that some thought it might, but a copy of the 45 of Frank Wilson's "Do I Love You" — a legend in Northern Soul circles — did set a record, going for more than £25K. In dollars, the total amount approaches $40,000, making it the world's most expensive record.

Sold by Kenny Burrell, this version is one of only two surviving copies of Wilson's record known to exist — and it's the only one in acceptable playing condition. Motown kingpin Berry Gordy originally ordered the record destroyed.

As the story goes, Wilson, who became a producer for Motown, was hired in late 1965 to head up the label's West Coast operation in Los Angeles. The deal was contingent upon Wilson giving up his recording and performing career. But Wilson recorded a demo of "Do I Love You." Upon finding out, Berry gave the order to have it wiped off the face of the earth. But, two copies escaped.

U.K. record dealer John Manship, who specializes in Northern Soul rarities, held the auction for Burrell's record. The total amount of the sale, which started in the middle of March and ran to April 29, was £25,742.

You can listen to this song on:-

But this is not his original Motown version but a newer version he recorded for Ian Levine's Motorcity label back in the 80's.

You can get his original version on many of the recent Motown complilations CDs from :-

"The Magic Of Motown", "Complete Motown Singles Vol:5

and Motown 50 - Today, Tomorrow, Forever"

Elders of Zion to Retire

The Elders of Zion, the venerable and shadowy Jewish organization that controls the international banking industry, news media and Hollywood, has announced that it is disbanding so that members can retire to Florida and live out their golden years on the golf course.

“We had a good run,” said one senior Elder, reminiscing over old photographs of world leaders in his musty, wood-paneled office at an undisclosed location. “Maybe we ran the world for just a little too long. Anyway, now it’s Obama’s problem.”

After a humiliating year left most of its financial holdings, as well as the entire civilized world, on the verge of collapse, the organization has re-defined its mission in terms of bridge games and making it to restaurants for the Early Bird Special.

The Wild Bunch: The Elders of Zion, pictured here in younger, more rambunctious days, are hanging up their fezzes and heading south. Noted Morris (third from left), ‘The only thing I’m looking to dominate now is a Piña Colada.’

The announcement comes after a year in which many of the Elders’ most prized institutions suffered disheartening failures. The vaunted global banking system, which lay at the heart of Jewish world domination for almost two centuries, collapsed with astonishing rapidity, requiring trillions of dollars in bailout funds. The newspaper industry, through which the Elders have controlled world opinion, is in shambles, with prominent papers declaring bankruptcy and forcing millions of readers to form their own opinions. And, in the unkindest cut, Hollywood suffered the humiliation of losing the Oscar for Best Picture to Indian film “Slumdog Millionaire.”

The organization’s reputation for financial probity had also taken a hit amidst rumors of billions in losses in private Kalooki games against Sheikh Hamad bin ‘Isa of Bahrain. According to inside sources, the organization also lost close to $1 trillion with disgraced investor Bernard Madoff.

Even before this past year, though, the Elders were facing hard times as they struggled to stay relevant and attract young members. The organization has tried to project a more youthful image, setting up a Facebook page and founding a new “Hipsters of Zion” youth division, which has sponsored a number of singles nights. But youngsters haven’t been interested.

“World domination just doesn’t resonate with the younger generation of Jews,” said Marvin Tobman, a professor of non-profit management at San Diego State University and expert on Jewish communal life. “They want the fun of fixing the world, not the responsibility of running it.”

These recent troubles have worried even some of the Elders’ sharpest critics.

“I always used to complain that Jews ran the world,” said Reginald Weber, author of “Zionists and Zookeepers: The Unholy Alliance.” “But now I’m starting to worry that nobody’s in charge.”

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Ranhill, Jaks and Zelan

Is this baby getting ready to blow ?

Btoto came up in my ZZZZ (sleeping) exploration list. I call these kind of stocks "Blowout Artistes" because they will consolidate for a period and then blow up or down in our face. Highly very profitable depend on which side of the trade you have taken. So always REMEMBER to put in the stops first before putting your money in:-

Fundamental analysis is always too late

Somewhere in late February when I sounded out that CPO was making preparation for a major come back with a higher target of possible 2,800. Many of my friends were not too convinced. As usual they were thinking about the current global financial crisis which practically render many industries dead, hence there are NO demand in the market (the fundamental picture ). But chart readings often foretell what is coming and unlike fundamental analysts who must see those bullish statistics reaching their tables before they can make up their mind that there is a bull out there. But often by the time those bullish statistics are in, the bull probably is already at the tail end. As in this case now, yesterday CPO was a few pips away from my target of 2,800 before losing substantially just before the closing bell. As a result, yesterday candlestick was a shooting star which is usually a bearish sign. At this stage when all these fundamentalists started to get high, I am beginning to get more cautious as the upper side target has already been hit. Of curse this is NOT to say that CPO will hit the target and drop dead from here, but the upper side will be more limited and downside will has to be monitored more closely. But if market punters follow these fundamentalists and start buying CPO contracts now, I can only say this:- they may be taking more risks than they should.

中國製造業回升帶動 原棕油創8個月新高

由於全球經濟正從衰退中復甦,導致需求上升,使到中國製造業重要指標則出現自9月以來首次上升,這利好的情緒不僅帶動區域股市的表現,原產品市場也 隨之起舞,大馬原棕油期貨週一寫下8個月新高。

昂證券(CLSA)亞太市場的報告指出,中國採購經理人指數(PMI)出現季節性的調整,從3 月的44.8,上升至50.1,而50以上的指數顯示目前正處於上揚的趨勢。

新加坡華僑銀行(OCBCBank)分析員黃凱瑞〈譯音〉指出,全球製造訂單正在上升,顯示製 造業更全面的復甦,全球的信心開始增加。

原棕油7月份期貨則一度上升5.2%,至每公噸2730令吉,也是自8月22日最高,並在週一午休的時掛2729令吉。但是在午盤之後,稍微下跌並 以2702令吉閉市,該基準期貨合約全日上升4.12%。

旱季毀壞南美洲的大豆油,美國較低的大豆油收成將4月份的原棕油價格推高30%,這是2001年12月以來,達到最高價格的月份。而原棕油和大豆油 是彼此可互相取代的植物油類。

雅加達德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)分析員拉奇曼高士萬杜〈Rachman Koeswanto〉說:「拉丁美洲的大豆油收成減少的同時,大馬原棕油庫存也比預期低。」




中國大連大豆油9月份期貨在週一早盤一度達到5%的漲停水平,至每公噸7332人民幣〈1075美元〉,最終以7330人民幣閉市,全日的漲幅為 4.9%,延續兩個月的上升趨勢。



Monday, May 4, 2009


Many "experts" will tell you to sell everything in May and come back later. But how many of them really do their homework before parroting others? Below is an interesting article written by Mr. Thomas J. Bowley:-


Ok, I understand the logic - partially. In order of S&P 500 calendar month performance since 1950, May ranks 8th out of 12 and June ranks 10th out of 12. However, both have produced positive annualized returns and in this period of very low interest rates, does it really make sense to pull that portion of your investments devoted to equities? What's not mentioned by most who follow this theory, though, is that there are VERY bullish periods that fall within both of these calendar months. Simply avoiding the market during May and June makes little sense given that the first handful of days in May and the last handful of days in May have produced annualized returns of 37.72% since 1950. Compare that to the average annual return on the S&P 500 since 1950 of 8.46%. By sitting on the sidelines, your money has no chance of working for you during periods where annualized returns are more than four times the average. Does that make any sense? The middle of May does tend to have neutral to bearish implications, but only on the S&P 500 does our historical meter, The Bowley Trend, actually turn bearish.

The part I find most disturbing regarding this theory is the perception that all equity investments suffer after the beginning of May. Do these folks realize that since 1971 the NASDAQ has produced annualized returns of 13.85% and that NASDAQ prices have moved higher 23 of the 38 years over this period? Does pulling your equity investments really make sense given the NASDAQ's relative outperformance during May? By the way, June's annualized return since 1971 on the NASDAQ is 10.67%.

Now for the really good part. Let's talk about the small caps, the Russell 2000. In terms of the Russell 2000 monthly performance, only December has been a better month than May over the past 22 years. The annualized return during May on the Russell 2000 since 1987? How about 24.40%? Do you still feel like May is an atrocious month for equities? While I'll admit that May isn't the best month overall for equities, not even close to it, the facts suggest you might do more harm to your portfolio by "going away" than by staying. There's some food for thought.

As for the current state of the market, it continues to perform as I suspected it would. You cannot stand in the way of a significant market trend. The bias remains on the bullish side. The VIX, after breaking down from a triangle pattern, moved back higher to retest the breakdown as prices consolidated, then has moved lower. A declining VIX is somewhat synonomous with higher equity prices and that's what I continue to look for and trade based upon.

KL Stocks - E&O, Gamuda, Hovid, Olympia, Sinop & Tranmil