Saturday, May 2, 2009

Squeeze me a little HARDER baby !!!


I just have to write on crude oil again.

As I last wrote on this commodity in February and April, and today it is still caught in a range. But behold ! The range has been getting tighter. I have marked out its previous range with 2 horizontal lines 1-1 and it is doing its current range within horizontal lines 1-2. I have decided to show you the Bollinger Band in a separate chart panel where you can see how the band has been squeezing tighter and tighter in a clearer visual form.

As text book Bollinger Band squeeze would usually foretell that a monstrous extreme move would soon happen. As the ADX has been residing below its 20 signal line which has been confirming its trendless mode. Please note that this has been carried on for the past 4 months, my experience tells me the longer this has been dragging on, the more extreme would its next moves be.
A similar pattern was with the CPO which consolidated for a year and a half before blowing up from 1,200 went to do 4,500+ .

The Bollinger Band sqeeze and the low vlaued ADX only tell us that an explsoive move is on its way. The bullish divergence (higher troughs with lower lows) found at both the crude oil's daily and weekly chart is telling us a bullish move should be expected.

I have been telling some of my friends on this exciting item and all of them just shook their head in disbelief. They said crude has "no logical reason" to go up, especially in a big way since the whole global economy is currently in a rot as there will be no strong demand. If you want me to tell you a reason, I am sorry I cannot. I certainly am NOT a fundamental 'expert', I can only read charts. Who knows, maybe there will be a major arm conflict coming in Middle East again (so what is new about them?) You know, there is always a possibility that the Israelis jump the Iranians. Or could someone stage a revolution in Venezuela and overthrow the big mouth President but in the process, blowing up their refineries ? Anything could happen these days.

But at the moment I am trembling with excitement as each day passes by just watching this chart. And I think I would soon be getting nose bleeds. Not very unlike watching this

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