Fundamental analysis is always too late

Somewhere in late February when I sounded out that CPO was making preparation for a major come back with a higher target of possible 2,800. Many of my friends were not too convinced. As usual they were thinking about the current global financial crisis which practically render many industries dead, hence there are NO demand in the market (the fundamental picture ). But chart readings often foretell what is coming and unlike fundamental analysts who must see those bullish statistics reaching their tables before they can make up their mind that there is a bull out there. But often by the time those bullish statistics are in, the bull probably is already at the tail end. As in this case now, yesterday CPO was a few pips away from my target of 2,800 before losing substantially just before the closing bell. As a result, yesterday candlestick was a shooting star which is usually a bearish sign. At this stage when all these fundamentalists started to get high, I am beginning to get more cautious as the upper side target has already been hit. Of curse this is NOT to say that CPO will hit the target and drop dead from here, but the upper side will be more limited and downside will has to be monitored more closely. But if market punters follow these fundamentalists and start buying CPO contracts now, I can only say this:- they may be taking more risks than they should.

中國製造業回升帶動　原棕油創8個月新高

由於全球經濟正從衰退中復甦，導致需求上升，使到中國製造業重要指標則出現自9月以來首次上升，這利好的情緒不僅帶動區域股市的表現，原產品市場也 隨之起舞，大馬原棕油期貨週一寫下8個月新高。

昂證券(CLSA)亞太市場的報告指出，中國採購經理人指數(PMI)出現季節性的調整，從3 月的44.8，上升至50.1，而50以上的指數顯示目前正處於上揚的趨勢。

新加坡華僑銀行（OCBCBank）分析員黃凱瑞〈譯音〉指出，全球製造訂單正在上升，顯示製 造業更全面的復甦，全球的信心開始增加。

原棕油7月份期貨則一度上升5.2%，至每公噸2730令吉，也是自8月22日最高，並在週一午休的時掛2729令吉。但是在午盤之後，稍微下跌並 以2702令吉閉市，該基準期貨合約全日上升4.12%。

旱季毀壞南美洲的大豆油，美國較低的大豆油收成將4月份的原棕油價格推高30%，這是2001年12月以來，達到最高價格的月份。而原棕油和大豆油 是彼此可互相取代的植物油類。

雅加達德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)分析員拉奇曼高士萬杜〈Rachman Koeswanto〉說：「拉丁美洲的大豆油收成減少的同時，大馬原棕油庫存也比預期低。」

根據大馬棕油局的數據顯示，大馬的原棕油存貨在3月份下跌13%，至136萬公噸，也是自2007年7月最低水平。

高士萬杜將09年的平均價格預測，從每公噸1700令吉，調高至2100令吉。

中國大豆油漲停

中國大連大豆油9月份期貨在週一早盤一度達到5%的漲停水平，至每公噸7332人民幣〈1075美元〉，最終以7330人民幣閉市，全日的漲幅為 4.9%，延續兩個月的上升趨勢。

大連9月份原棕油期貨在早盤也上漲5%，至每公噸6582人民幣，最終，以6580人民幣掛收，全日上漲4.9%。

大連9月份大豆期貨則在早盤上升3.8%，至每公噸3633人民幣，之後以3639人民幣閉市，全日上升4%。