Sunday, June 28, 2009

"Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water..."

Is this another trap for the "buy and hold" crowd ?

Saturday, June 27, 2009

CPO -29/6/09 - Selling ceased, may not yet be over

CPO gapped down last Monday but reversed upward for the rest of the week. You would had closed out all your shorts positions when price closed up above the lower Bollinger Band on Thursday. The daily ADX has turned flat confirming the prior bear trend has temporarily stopped. Since price manages to close up above the lower band and it is complimented by the Stochastic crossing up above its 20 signal line, it offers an initial buy signal. But since the MACD and the DMI still remain negative, you should keep your stops tight at 2290.

The weekly MACD is still positive but may turn negative soon. When that happens, it will confirm a new sell signal. Meanwhile the Stochastic continues to fall.The most damaging perhaps is the D- has now crossed above the falling D+ which is really bearish. By applying Wilders' extreme point rule , if the coming price goes lower than this week's low of 2149, then another sell signal is flashed .

Since the weekly chart
is more bearish biased now, so I would pay attention to any new sell signal in the daily chart and weight lesser on a buy signal.

FKLI -29/6/09 - Market may go range bounding

Last week I noted the weekly chart was not complimenting the daily chart's multiple sell signals and the negative MACD was still too "far" from its zero signal line, so I said that I would NOT engage in too big a sell position. The market did went down further on Monday and immediately staged a reversal on Tuesday. On Wednesday it managed to close back above the lower Bollinger Band which would effectively close off all our prior sells positions. Though we usually take this cross up above the lower Bollinger Band as an initial buy signal, I must advocate a little caution here again as it is NOT confirmed by other indicators. And Friday candlestick is a spinning top which is usually a sign that the market is losing momentum.

As the ADX has been falling and also the Bollinger Band has started to squeeze. Both these may be telling us that this market is going into a range bounding situation. So you should trade small on whatever signal that comes along. Last week someone released a report saying that the foreign funds are net buyers of the local equities which is a supposedly news, but a
s the previously highlighted bearish divergence is still valid, I would not believe in any return of the bull story unless prices manage to close above its previous high and stay above there at least 2-3 days.

The weekly chart as per last week's , though price briefly went below the upper Bollinger band it but still managed to close above it again. The MACD also remain positive and the Stochastic still has not crossed below its 80 signal line, so nothing here suggest the bull cycle is over yet.

So the game plan for the coming week is to trade small on any new end of day signals or just stay out before a more concrete signal comes along.

Fare thee well, Michael

Yep, the great Michael Jackson is gone, away from all his pains. My sympathy to his family.

I was a fan of his when he was with his brothers when they were with Motown. My last album by him on Motown is "Moving Violation". Then my last ever album is "Destiny" on Epic label. Then nothing.

No, I never bought any of his solo albums on Sony label after he went solo regardless of their monstrous successes in sales and MTV performances. My reason is the same as those by the Rolling Stones Magazine's numerous singles/albums lists of the last century - where all his solo recordings never quite make the top rank
. Listen to his "I Want You Back" and compare that with his later days songs which are grossly overproduced and you will know what I mean.

I still listen to his albums decades after I first bought them. I hope Michael's younger legions of fans will stay with his music as I did with his early ones.

I own these:-

Friday, June 26, 2009

Sure fire way to save the airliners industry

Since nobody here seems to have a clue, let's if Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has any ideas:

Turns he does! And it's a pretty good one, to boot. During a German press conference to discuss the possibility of a new transatlantic airline, O'Leary told reporters that under his management there'll be blowjobs in economy and business class, for-pay and for free, respectively.

Obviously this a product others airlines would be wise to emulate. At the very least we'd see a reversal in the rapid declines in business class travel, a reduction due in large part to the financial services slow down. In-flight fellatio? People will find a way to get deals done.

Pay attention to the body language of the German lady interpretor:-

"Experts" beware !

With so many 'experts' constant misinforming and misleading the general naive investors into the valley of financial perils, I think this just begs to happen:-

Senior Citizens Administer A Beat Down On Their Financial Advisor

A group of German senior citizens recently decided to forgo the legal process and deal with their investment losses the old fashioned way- vigilante justice. The silver haired bunch jumped their financial advisor as he was entering the door to his house, bound him with masking tape, thew him into the back of an Audi, drove him to one of the couples' vacation homes and had their way with him (I like how the writer descibe this) in the cellar for four days. It took 40 members of the German counter-terrorism unit to get the active seniors to free their prisoner.

German Senior Citizens ‘Kidnap, Torture’ Advisor

A group of well-to-do German senior citizens, who lost their savings in the credit crunch, staged a revenge attack and held their terrified financial advisor to ransom, according to several published reports Wednesday.

The alleged kidnapping is the latest example of what is being dubbed “silver crime” — the violent backlash of pensioners who feel cheated by the world, the Daily Telegraph said.

“As I was letting myself into my front door I was assaulted from behind and hit hard,” the financial adviser James Amburn, a 56-year-old German-American, told the Telegraph. “Then they bound me with masking tape until I looked like a mummy. I thought I was a dead man.”

He was freed by 40 armed policemen from the counter-terrorist unit last Saturday, after he pretended to send a fax to a Swiss bank asking for the transfer of funds demanded by the pensioners, writing "call.pol-ice" in German.

According to the Telegraph, two couples who entrusted Amburn's investment company with $2.2 million bundled him into an Audi in the west German town of Speyer and drove him to one of their holiday homes near the Austrian border.

Amburn claimed he was held there in a cellar for four days while being fed soup twice a day and beaten.

“I was beaten. They threatened again and again to kill me,” Mr Amburn told the newspaper.

The pensioners are under arrest on suspicion of deprivation of liberty, torture and inflicting grievous bodily harm. These charges carry a maximum of 15 years in prison, said the Telegraph.

Figures for the amount of violent backlashes of pensioners who feel cheated during the financial crisis have increased, according to the newspaper.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Natural Gas to shock and awe soon

The recent headline from Bloomberg, following the recent sell down in shares globally.

"Oil, Gasoline Tumble as World Bank Predicts a Deeper Recession"

"Gasoline tumble" ? I am NOT too sure about that. I think it is already setting up for an extreme bullish blowup.

The weekly chart's ADX has been falling from above both the D+ and D- since May, this is confirming the end of the prior bear trend. The positive Stochastic has been rising and now it is above its 50 signal line which is more bullish inclined. The MACD is also positive and has been rising, but since it is still below its zero signal line, so maybe we still have to wait awhile and wait for a positive crossover above the zero line. But the MACD has been registered higher troughs while prices went lower lows. This is the classical bulish divergence which I would always look for in any market for a confirmation of a terminal turning point.

But the most exciting setup in the weekly chart is the squeezing Bollinger Band which is confirming gas' recent sideway movement. But a squeezing BBand is also foretell us that this market is about to blow violently. Since all the indicators are the bullish biased, so I think the blowup should be on the buy side.

The first thing I immediately take note on the daily chart is its lowly ADX which has fallen below its 20 signal lines at 14. This is confirming a lack of direction in this market. The next major setup is there is also a bullish divergence at its MACD with the prices. While the MACD has already made its way up above the zero signal line but both itself and Stochastic have turned negative, so I cannot get bullish about it now.

You should watch for
a closing above 4.255, especially if it can hold above that level for a few days, then Natural Gas would probably shock and awe everyone.
As I have been a faithful technical analysis student, please do not ask me about those bothersome fundamentals as why it should rally when the world's finance is in such a sorry state, I am only reading all the signals that the charts are giving out.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

CPO - 22/6/09 - The bull is dead ?

You should pay attention the rising ADX which I mentioned a component needed to empower the sell signals flashed earlier. The rising ADX has now crossed up the falling D+ which is usually taken as a major sell signal. And the ADX can continue to rise, then we will be able to ignore the oversold Stochastic. A MACD which is below its zero signal line and prices fall below the lower Bollinger Band mean this market is more bearish.

Whatever bull left in the weekly chart last week is also fast losing ground as the Stochastic continues to fall and the still positive MACD has continued to dip its head and we may see a negative cross down by the coming week. The weekly ADX is also continuing to fall which is confirming the prior bull trend may has ended.

Place your stop to protect the short positions at 2385.

Last week there were some talks in the local media telling you how the El Nino climatic effect would boost the CPO's prices. It sounds logical. But then they forget that the effect would not affect crop immediately and most important of all is that markets have never been 'logical". It is always about perceptions of the players.

FKLI - 22/6/09 - The Sellig Begins

I mentioned about the bearish divergence and the stepping down ADX last week as 'evidence' of the big hands may be scheming nasty things. So I was not too surprised when FKLI turned down and lost 26 points. Prices broke down below the upper Bollinger Band on last Wednesday, so following our trading rules - we take out the long contracts and enter the initial shorts contract.

The Stochastic has crossed down its 80 signal line which would be giving us another initial sell signal. The MACD also has a negative crossover and fall below its recent series of troughs which I would also take as a sell signal. The ADX continues to drop which is confirming the end of the prior bull trend, but the D+ is still above the D- and with the MACD is still far away from its zero signal line, so I would NOT park too many sell contract in yet. The next sell signal would be when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band of 1048, you may want to add on more.

Again the weekly chart is not complimenting the daily chart's bear. Price is still holding above the upper Bollinger Band and with both the Stochastic and the MACD are still positive, I cannot say this rally has ended yet. You would want to watch 1037 level on next Friday closing. If price goes below that level, then the whole big picture may has changed.

You should place stop at either the middle Bollinger Band which is effectively the 20 SMA at 1068 or if your risk appetite is stronger, then at above the upper Bollinger Band of 1182. The downside targets will be at 1030, 994, 963.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Genting International Singapore - darling of many

For some strange reasons, this stock somehow becomes the darling of many market players from Malaysia. To them, this could be THE only stock to buy from Singapore side. For some of the more fortunate players who bought around the end of past year at its recent low of 30cents+, this past few months have been rewarding to them. But for those many who missed the boat are asking 'can buy now ah?"

First if you ask me: I do not like a stock that has committed a huge sum of money into a mega project since it will be paying out cash month after month for the work in progress, and that comes with absolutely NO inward cash to the company. But of course, the 'experts' like to project the future and paint rosy picture for many companies' new venture. Since not many of the local companies pay you and me respectable dividends so I only want to look at the charts to decide whether it is a good buy for capital appreciation.

The weekly chart has nothing spectacular bullish in it as there was no bullish divergence formed before the current up moves. With that, I would only consider the recent bull move mimicking the STI. As at this weekend, the Stochastic has already turned down and crossed down its 80's signal line which is usually treated as an initial sell signal. The MACD has not turned negative and it is turning the corner and that is telling us the prior bull momentum is fizzling out fast. This is also being confirmed by the ADX which has turned flat which is confirming the end (even though this maybe a temporary one)of its prior bullish move. Meanwhile prices have already crossed below the upper Bollinger Band which is also signaling a sell signal.

The daily chart 's ADX has already gone below its 20 signal line which is confirming that this market is now range bounding without any significant directional moves. The sell signals are coming from a negative MACD which is becoming more bearish as it is now gone below its zero signal line. The Stochastic is now at its oversold area (as the ADX is low, so I will call that as oversold) and we may see some up move. But it will be premature to say that the bull will be back when the Stochastic crosses up again.

BUT, since the weekly chart is bearish and it dominates over the daily, I would like to see more concrete readings before I switch camp. So to answer the question "can buy here ah ?" - My thinking would be NO since there is no evidence of a major reversal. In fact, if you had bought this earlier and still have not sold, I would strongly advocate you should take your profit.

KL Stocks - Premium & Satang

Is gold the mother of all hedges ?

Recent years there have been many 'experts' calling the gold as the best hedges against inflation . And they get even more vocal after last year financial fiasco. Basically I think they are making a lot of "if, then...." base on the old school fundamental analysis. But is gold really as bullish as they make out to be ?

First let us take a look at its monthly chart, I notice there is a potential double tops in formation. A double tops is usually an extreme bearish chart pattern, if plays out, may see gold go down at usd400.00. I also notice there is a bearish divergence in formation at the MACD and the D+ (where price reached new highs or same high without similar confirmation at the indicators). Another item to take note would be its ADX which has been stepping downward. All these are potentially extreme bearish.

At the writing, price is breaking below the upper Bollinger Band which is usually taken as an initial sell signal. BUT, as we are still in the middle of the month, the current price bar is NOT "official" yet. We need to wait until the last trading day of this month (30th, Tuesday) to see where it closes.

As for the weekly chart, first I would take note of the falling ADX which is now below 20's which is telling us this market has fallen into a sideway mode. A double tops is here too, so is the bearish divergence. The things to watch out for will be the MACD goes below its zero signal line or price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, especially its recent fractal support of 865.

Then we come to its daily chart for the more immediate buy/sell signals. The daily ADX has also gone below its 20 signal line which is telling us the market may be range bounding before the next course of direction emerges. But you should pay attention to the prices which are now below the lower Bollinger Band which is bearish. Both the MACD and the Stochastic are negative. The MACD is drifting toward its own zero signal line which may trigger new selling. The oversold Stochastic (oversold because the ADX is low, so I will read it as such) may be signaling a temporary bottom is in.

Any closing of above its recent high and its ability to hold above for at a few days may put back the bull talks into this market. But with the bearish divergence at the weekly and monthly charts, even a new high is achieved, I would still remain very cautious about this market. Another word will be the upside may be limited and the downside will be juicy. And to say this market will be 'the king of all hedges' in the current financial turmoil period will be highly uneducated.

At this point, there is also NO major sell signal yet.

Monday, June 15, 2009

KL Stocks - Century & Farmbes

Saturday, June 13, 2009

FKLI - 15/6/09 - Continue to defy gravity

Like I said for the past 2 weeks - I remain cautious on the daily chart's readings as the market has still failed to take out/erase out the bearish divergence at the MACD. Another interesting item I note from the daily chart is the ADX which has been stepping downward
despite the market continues to reach higher highs. That is usually telling us the big hands are already doing something nasty behind all this bullishness.

The weekly chart as per previous week is of a completely different picture. The MACD is above the zero signal line and the gap between itself and its moving average is widening, indicating the trend is getting stronger. This is also been confirmed by the rising weekly ADX. Prices also remain above the upper Bollinger Band, so I see no reason to sound any alert as far the weekly chart is concerned.

I have been looking over many of the stock charts over the past weeks, one thing is confirmed:- most of the penny stocks/lousy fundamentals stocks/ potential 176's candidate stocks are all raving to explode upside and will run or have already started to run till your jaw drops. But most of the big stocks have none of their smaller brothers' bullish setup. I consider most of the big stocks are merely doing a bear cycle technical rebound. So you should trade those "small boys" instead of the so called 'blue chips". Comrade Deng once said: "stocks that go up are good stocks; stocks that do not go up are bad stocks" or something like that.

As for FKLI, I repeat:- unless the bearish divergence is taken out, I keep my stops tight. You should place it at 1070. Meanwhile just ride the trend as long it is still intact. The next target would be at 1110 and 1160.

CPO - 15/6/09 - The bear arrived ?

The daily ADX continues to fall and now find itself below the 20 signal line, so is the Bollinger Band which has started to tighten, both are confirming a trendless market. But both the MACD and the Stochastic are flashing new sell signal (last week they were contradicting each other). The MACD has just crossed down the zero signal line which is usually a powerful confirming sell signal. The Stochastic has also just crossed down its own 50 signal line, that too, is usually another more reliable sell signal. Last Friday's price had closed below the lower Bollinger Band is also one more selling signal.

So the sell signals are all over the daily chart, except there is no strong trend yet. You may want to engage some initial sell positions at this moment, and wait for the ADX to rise again before engaging heavier positions. Place stop at 2550 to protect your short positions.

The weekly chart is not offering much support for the bull side as the Stochastic has already crossed down its 80's signal line which is usually taken as initial sell signal. While the MACD may not has crossed down yet but it is obviously losing its prior momentum as it has already started to dip its head. The more confirming signal would be last week's price closed below the upper Bollinger Band which is another sell signal. The only remaining signals left non-confirming would be the D+ is still above the D- and the MACD is still positive.

With the daily chart already filled with sell signals and the weekly chart is half sided with the bear, I think it would be prudent to switch camp from the bull to bear at this moment of time. The downside support areas would be 2240, 2070 and 1900.

Friday, June 12, 2009

KL Stocks - Suria & Hevea

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Is Engtex getting ready to rock and roll ?

My proprietary ZZZ indicator is standing up at the top panel. I especially like the way the Bollinger Band has been squeezing. The MACD is above its zero signal line.

All we need the easterly wind - a closing of above its recent high should just spark up the firework.

KL Stocks - Borneo Oil, Carotec, DPS, SMI, Sumatec & YLI

Has the USD reached a temporary bottom ?

I do not think the USD has completed its bear cycle yet. I think in a longer term, the USD still has some more room to go further down. But at this time, I think it MAY has reached a temporary bottom.

From the USD index chart, we can see a no-nosence big body white candlestick closing above the lower Bollinger Band 2 days ago. The MACD has already crossed up and so is the Stochastic. The Stochastic is behaving a little bit more bullish as it has also crossed up its own 20's signal line which would offer its first initial buy signal. The MACD is not as attractive since it is still below its own zero signal line wich usually make its positive crossover NOT as strong for a buy signal. Meanwhile the D- has been falling and we may see the D+ crosses up above it which would offer another buy signal. and yesterday closing also managed to go above the 20 SMA (which is the middle BBand here), and by that I would take it as another buy signal.

The falling ADX which is above both the D- and D+ is confirming the prior bear trend may be over. If price manages to close above the upper Bollinger Band and that would be a very strong buy signal.

Since thre is nothing postive in the weekly chart (price still below the lower BBand, MACD and Stochastic still negative) so I do NOT think this is a market terminal point, maybe you should trade it for the short term.


I have nothing but respect for Mr. Shek kin who passed away a few days ago. In real life, he is a complete defferent person from his screen character. He was good mannered and well respected by people in the industry.

Farewell, dear old man. You taught me that never judge a person by his looks.

Hong Kong has lost one of its greatest and longest living film treasures. Veteran martial arts actor Shek Kin (aka Shih Kien, Sek Kin), best known internationally for his role in ENTER THE DRAGON as "Mr. Han," died this morning at the venerable age of 96.

Gregory So, Hong Kong's Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development expressed regret at the loss.

"Mr. Shek's brilliant career in the performing arts industry started in the 1940s. Since then he devoted lifelong commitment to the industry. He played a villain role in the Wong Fei-hung film series and had become one of the most recognizable faces of Hong Kong cinema," said So.

"With his death, Hong Kong has lost an outstanding performing arts talent. On behalf of the Commerce and Economic Development Bureau, I offer our deepest condolences to Mr. Shek's family."

Shek was one of the territory's most recognizable actors thanks to a prolific career that spanned over 50 years. Born in 1913, Shek was among Hong Kong's first generation of martial arts stars, including Walter Cho, Kwan Tak-hing and Yu So-chow, who flourished during the initial genre boom of the 1950s and '60s. Trained in several northern kung fu disciplines rather than Chinese opera like so many of his peers, Shek began appearing in Cantonese-language martial arts films in the late 1940s. Up until he was cast as the lead villain in ENTER THE DRAGON, Shek was best known as the lead villain in the long-running WONG FEI HUNG film series where he frequently crossed fists and wits with series star Kwan Tak-hing.

In the 1970s and '80s, Shek continued to appear in a variety of films, most notably in ENTER THE DRAGON but also in a comedic supporting role opposite Jackie Chan in THE YOUNG MASTER. He also frequently appeared in local television series. Shek Kin retired from the entertainment industry in the mid-1990s. His final film role was in Bosco Lam's comedy HONG KONG ADAM'S FAMILY (1994).

Are "experts" idiots or are they 奸人坚 ?

Some months back when the world was still reeling under the global financial crisis, all we hear was how many of the MNC electronic firms shedding their work force, cutting work days. One of my close friends whose company is in the related industry was telling how he was worrying of have to find a new job if he got retrenched. After all he is already 50's something.

coincidence, someone just emailed a chart on the Philadephia Semiconductor Index chart to me and after looking at it for a while, I emailed this local friend of mine telling him not to worry as the chart was indicating the bottom for the industry may has been reached.
By mid March, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) chart already showed higher high and higher low, a positive sign that the market has already confirmed its uptrend. The SOX is the most widely recognized index that investors use to track the performance of semiconductor makers and equipment manufacturers. Because it tracks the cyclical semiconductor industry.The Semiconductor Index is comprised of 18 stocks that almost fully represent the semiconductor industry.

And after a while , an "expert' from a local big brokeage house was writing an essay in the printed media advising investors should dump the Unisem shares (appended below) . His explaination was basically reflecting the extreme bearish market mode then, citing falling orders and basically 'explaining' what had already happened etc. As it was highly unusual that these 'experts' ask people to sell as they are always wired for the buy sides only, I went to take a look at Unisem chart and saw all the buy signals practically already in place since early April when the MACD crossed up its zero signal line and the D+ crossed up the falling D- with the ADX rising above 30's which was confirming a strong trend.

On top of those, I would heartily tell anybody to buy this stock as there is a bullish divergence in both the daily and weekly chart which qualifying this stock for a MAJOR run.

Since Unisem is doing most of her business with the US, so logics tell us that if the US semiconductor industry is recovering, then companies like Unisem should benefit from it. Furthermore we had all the confirmation from the charts. So I was thinking to myself: are these'experts' are idiots or are they 奸人坚 (telling others to sell when they will buy) ????

Unisem falls after downgraded to Sell (Friday, 15 May 2009 )
KUALA LUMPUR: Share price of Unisem fell nine sen to RM1.01 in late morning trade on May 15 after analysts downgraded the stock to a Sell due to gloomy prospects.

At 11.27am, the share price fell nine sen to RM1.01 with 1.91 million shares done.

MXXXX Investment Research said the first quarter results were worse than expected with no respite in sight.

“2009 prospects remain gloomy amid challenging business conditions in the US, which accounts for 55% of Unisem’s sales. We expect Unisem to post losses for the next two quarters before recovery starts in 4Q09. With a target price of 77 sen, Unisem is a Sell,” it said.

The research house said although a loss was expected, 1Q09’s deficit of RM23 million was higher than its estimate of RM10 million.

The 1Q earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin dipped 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, despite measures to reduce labour costs (20% of sales) via pay reductions and non-renewal of contract workers in Batam and Ipoh.

The 1Q09 plant utilisation was estimated to have dropped to 50% from 70% a year ago.

“We have adjusted our 2009 net earnings forecast and now project a RM3 million loss for the year, with expected utilisation rate of 50%.

“We anticipate a pick-up from 4Q09 onwards, but muted demand may be seen over the next few months for test and assembly services in the consumer electronics, communications and computers segments which form 80% of Unisem’s sales. Our 2010 net earnings forecast of RM33 million remains unchanged,” it said.

MXXX Research pegged Unisem’s target price to 11 times 2010 price-to-earnings ratio (PER), which is the average PER during the sector recovery post-2002.

It expected improving prospects in 2010, hence it changed its valuation methodology to earnings-based (from asset-based, on 0.3 times historical book value).

“The stock has risen more than 100% since its year-low on March 17, 2009. With moderate earnings going forward, there is limited upside to its current price. Unisem is also trading at 15.7 times 2010 PER, above the current domestic sector average of 13 times,” it added.

KL Stocks - Hil Ind, Crescendo, Minho, Muhibah Eng, Oka, Petra &Tekala