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Israel steps up scrutiny of Chinese investmentsIsrael looks set to strengthen a mechanism it set up to vet Chinese investments for security concerns.
联合国人权高专办发言人柯尔维尔（Rupert Colville）周五在日内瓦表示，关于新疆情势报告发布时间表仍待定，指每一份报告都必须深入调查，由于专家无法进入新疆地区，这让情况变得更加复杂。
柯尔维尔透过电子邮件表示，巴舍莱访问新疆必须"有意义"，以及在"不受监控的情况下"接触各种民间社会行为者与地点以及与政府官员深度交流，这点至为重要；巴舍莱说过，有意义与不受控制地访问新疆地区至为关键。
稍早，香港南华早报引述匿名消息人士的话指出，中方已同意巴舍莱在北京冬季奥运（2月4日到2月20日）后访问新疆，但前提必须是一趟"友好"的访问，而非以调查作为框架。人权人士与西方外交官对此表示怀疑。
不过，中国外交部发言人赵立坚周五在例行记者会上证实，早已邀请巴舍莱来访，并称访问目的在于促进交流合作，"反对利用此事进行政治操弄"，但他并未正面回覆中方是否就巴舍莱访疆设定前提，即联合国不在北京冬奥期间发表涉疆报告。
北约组织（NATO）成员国正在衡量，他们应该在多大程度上帮助乌克兰，面对俄罗斯可能发动的入侵。
这个包括美、英、法、德在内的联盟正在加强对乌克兰的军事准备和援助。
全称为“北大西洋公约组织”（North Atlantic Treaty Organisation）的北约是1949年由12个国家组成的军事联盟，包括美国、加拿大、英国和法国。
成员国同意，在任何一个成员国受到武装攻击的时候，会向彼此施以援手。
其原本的目标是要对抗二战后俄罗斯向欧洲的扩张。
1955年，作为对北约成立的回应，苏俄建立起与东欧共产主义国家的军事联盟，名为华沙条约组织（Warsaw Pact）。
1991年苏联解体后，一些前华沙条约组织成员国变成了北约的成员。北约组织如今有30个成员国。
乌克兰是前苏联加盟共和国之一，同时与俄罗斯及欧盟接壤。
它不是北约成员国，但它是一个“伙伴国”——这意味着有共识，未来某个时间它可能被允许加入这个联盟。
俄罗斯希望从西方大国那里得到保证，让此事永远不会发生——这是西方并不打算给予的承诺。
乌克兰有大量人口是俄罗斯民族，与俄罗斯有紧密的社会和文化联系。在战略上，克里姆林宫将之视为俄罗斯的后院。
俄罗斯总统普京声称，西方国家正在利用这个联系来包围俄罗斯，而他想要北约停止其在东欧的军事活动。
很久以来，他都指美国打破了其在1990年作出的北约不会向东扩张的承诺。
北约否认俄罗斯的指控，并表示其只有少数成员国与俄罗斯边境接壤，同时声称自己是一个防御性的联盟。
很多人相信，目前俄罗斯军队在乌克兰边境加强部署，可能是一次迫使西方认真对待俄罗斯安全要求的尝试。
北约当时并没有干预，但是作为回应，它第一次在几个东欧国家派驻了军队。
俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后，北约就在东欧部署了战斗群
它有四个营级规模的多国战斗群，分别在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰，还在罗马尼亚有一个旅级多国部队。
它还将其在波罗的海和东欧的防空警备扩大至截击任何越过成员国边境的俄罗斯飞机。
俄罗斯已经表示，想要这些武装力量离开。
美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）已经表示，俄罗斯如果入侵，将会付出“沉重而高昂的代价”。
美国已经让8500人的部队处于备战状态，但是五角大楼表示，他们只会在北约决定启动快速响应部队的时候出征。
五角大楼还表示，并没有计划派出部队前往乌克兰。
德国外交部长安娜琳娜·贝伯克（Annalena Baerbock）警告，任何进一步的军事升级“都将令俄罗斯政权付出高昂代价——包括经济、政治和战略上”。
唐宁街则表示，英国同意“盟国必须动用迅速的惩罚措施，包括前所未有的制裁方案”。
美国总统拜登已经表示，欧洲各国领袖在乌克兰问题上立场“完全一致”，但是各国在提供的支援上有所差别。
美国表示已经发放90吨包括弹药在内的“军事救援物资”至乌克兰，给“前线防卫”。英国则向乌克兰提供短程反坦克导弹。
一些北约成员国，包括丹麦、西班牙、法国和荷兰等，正派出战斗机和军舰前往东欧，加强该区域的防御。
不过，德国已经拒绝乌克兰提出的提供防御性武器的请求，理由是其不向冲突区域提供杀伤性武器的政策。德国将会提供医疗援助。
与此同时，法国总统马克龙已经呼吁俄罗斯进行对话，以令局势降级。
英国《每日快报》报导，一名中国火箭科学家去年9月携带中国的超音速导弹研发资讯向西方投诚，促使英美两国相关防御计划加速进展，也使中国得花2年调整系统才能让情资失效。
《每日快报》（Daily Express）引述情报界消息人士报导，这名30多岁的科学家原本替国有中国航空工业集团工作，协助开发能运载中国东风-17导弹的中程超音速助推滑翔载具（boost-glide vehicle），射程可达2000英里（约3200公里）。
消息人士表示，这名科学家与中国较新的超音速导弹投射系统有关联，这套系统能让导弹先在太空环绕地球飞行，再利用红外线导引（heat-seeking，又称追热）技术锁定地面上任何目标进行攻击。
报导说，这名科学家并非出于政治意识形态向西方投诚，而是不满未获得升迁。他先于2021年9月底与英国在香港的情报人员接触，表明自己持有关于中国超音速滑翔载具（HGV）的详细资料，并寻求自己和妻儿获得庇护。
俗称军情六处（MI6）的英国秘密情报局（Secret Intelligence Service，SIS）接获消息后，派员前往香港与投诚者会合，以确认情资真实性。美国中央情报局（CIA）也收到通知。
这名科学家除了透露所知资讯，也成功将技术资料偷偷携出。他和家人最后被安排先飞往美军在德国的一个空军基地，之后再经由英国辗转抵达美国。
由于超音速武器飞行速度超过5马赫，加上比起传统弹道导弹，这类武器的助推滑翔载具依循的弹道更难预测，因此要将它拦截十分困难。
根据美国国防部2020年发布的一份报告，美国超音速武器在2019年仍落后俄罗斯和中国。英国海军参谋长拉达金（Tony Radakin）则在本月初证实，英国也已加入超音速武器竞赛。
中国篮球协会主席、前NBA球星姚明，近日公开邀请大力关注人权的塞尔提克球星坎特（Enes Kanter Freedom）到中国一游，坎特欣然同意，但提出想去新疆集中营，也反邀对方一起去台湾观光，不过却遭到姚明封锁IG帐号。据自由时报今天报道称，今日，坎特再度对姚明开砲，怼姚明“长得高却小心眼” ，并要他不要再当中共傀儡。
据自由时报今天报道称，NBA波士顿塞尔提克队球星坎特杠上姚明。坎特称姚明“长得高却小心眼”。坎特还促姚明：不要再当中共傀儡。
据该报道，坎特在脸书上说，“巨大的身体、小的心眼=姚明。”坎特在脸书贴出影片表示，要是能与姚明坐下来好好谈，他会跟对方说，不要再当中共的傀儡，也不要当中共与习近平的喉舌，“如果你（姚明）想要来场真正的对话，你知道我住哪，知道我在哪座城市，就来吧，我们可以好好对话。”
据该报道说，坎特开呛姚明，不要跳出来邀请别人去中国，又在得到答复以后保持静默，然后封锁别人的Instagram，就像个小孩一样。
Two years after a 6-year-old discovered a plea for help in a package of Christmas cards, newly released prisoners detail their accusations – and the prison’s cover up when the scandal broke.
Ancient Mogilev, a former city of the medieval Duchy of Lithuania and now part of Belarus close to the border with Russia, cradled along the River Dnieper, is a most unlikely spot for an interview about forced prison labor in China. But this is the home to which Dima Siakatsky returned after his release from Shanghai’s Qingpu Prison, where he witnessed foreign prisoners being coerced into labor, packaging goods for foreign and Chinese brands.
China’s foreign prisoners come from all over the planet. I was interviewing Siakatsky by video at his home in Mogilev several months after his return, when he pulled out a handful of Christmas cards made for the Tesco supermarket chain and waved them at the screen. “Here is the evidence that prisoners at Qingpu Prison were packaging these cards,” he said. “I kept some of the cards and smuggled them out with me as proof.”
During our interview, Siakatsky
recounted that on Christmas Day in the prison in 2019, cheers broke out
when he got into a fight with another prisoner and dumped a plate of hot
food on the other man’s head. Guards rushed to break up the fracas, and
Siakatsky, who was deemed to have provoked the fight, was hauled off to
spend 80 days in solitary confinement.
Siakatsky had attacked an inmate who was cooperating in the prison’s attempt to cover up the forced labor scandal that was inadvertently exposed when a young English girl found a message from prisoners at Qingpu scrawled in a Tesco Christmas Card.
In 2019, Florence Widdicombe, then a 6-year-old London schoolgirl, discovered a despairing message from Shanghai prisoners forced to pack boxes of Christmas charity cards bound for British supermarkets.
Her discovery made headlines around the world. I wrote up the story for the Sunday Times and followed it up with another one about the prisoners packaging Quaker oatmeal.
There were quick denials by Chinese media and Beijing’s foreign ministry at the time, and I came under a vicious personal attack in a 30-minute CGTN program assassinating my character.
Over the past two years I have gradually pieced together the reaction inside the jail after my Sunday Times story was published on December 22, 2019. Several of the prisoners involved have been released from Qingpu over the past year and have described the panic that erupted after Chinese authorities learned of Florence’s find.
When
the story came out, a pair of new foreign prisoners who hadn’t been
involved in the smuggled messaging were persuaded to deny everything for
visiting Chinese state media television cameras. Emotions in the
foreign prisoners’ “Brigade Eight” cell block boiled over.
“The guards arranged for the TV crews to film tables stacked with good food to present the impression the prisoners were treated well,” said Siakatsky, who is a furniture trader.
As one of the prisoners who had packaged the cards, Siakatsky secreted away several as evidence and took them with him when he was released last summer after serving 40 months for allegedly carrying a fake credit card. During his video interview with me, he produced them for the camera. They were identical to the Tesco cards that Florence’s father, Ben, handed to me two years ago.
Dima Siakatsky holding Tesco Christmas cards, smuggled out from Qingpu prison. Screenshot of an online video call by Dima Siakatsky.
He said the prison governor, Li Qiang, went on camera and denied the prison had any involvement with the cards.
“This was a blatant lie,” Siakatsky proclaimed. “The Christmas cards were packed exactly in Brigade Eight by the hands of prisoners in the same room where they eat and spend their time. In this room there were stands with information about who and how many cards and other products each prisoner made.
“Then the officers, and some prisoners under orders, began urgently to remove all evidence that prisoners worked in the brigade. By evening it became clear why.”
Siakatsky said the prosecutors based in the prison came to interrogate two prisoners who had committed genuinely serious crimes, and persuaded them to talk to the TV crews. “I told them that I also wanted to testify about the Christmas cards and that I had proof, holding up some of the cards. To which they replied that they did not need my testimony and evidence,” he said.
“At dinner time, reporters and senior officers of the Prison Bureau arrived at the brigade. Jailers were posted to prevent me from seeing what was happening at first. The guards knew very well that I might intervene. So I could only see the journalists through a window. I saw the police look at the fake dinner on the tables and nod their heads and grin in approval,” Siakatsky said.
“I went up to the officers, took out some cards, raised my hand and said that the Christmas cards were made here and I want to testify. The next moment captains Wei and Zhao took the cards and pushed me out of the room. I said that the governor had lied on TV,” Siakatsky continued.
“The next day I saw a report on the Chinese channel that they had filmed the day before. One prisoner, an Italian pedophile, said that in this prison there was a good attitude towards prisoners and good food. This was also a complete lie.”
Siakatsky was outraged that learned that an Italian prisoner convicted of sex crimes was apparently seeking to curry favor with guards by denying the practice of forced labor within the prison. “So during dinner, I took my dinner plate and poured it over his head. Captain Wei was on duty that day. He handcuffed me, applied force to me and sent me to solitary where I spent 80 days.” This was the longest time a foreign prisoner in Qingpu had ever spent in solitary.
“The statement that the cards were not produced in prison and the demonstration of good food seemed to me complete hypocrisy,” Siakatsky said.
The 2019 Christmas Card Discovery
Campaigners and critics have long claimed that Chinese jails coerce inmates into “slave labor” on a wide range of both foreign and domestic products. I personally witnessed coerced labor by prisoners packaging foreign-branded wares at Qingpu when I was held there in 2014-2015 in my own widely-publicized arbitrary imprisonment. Florence Widdicombe’s shocking discovery provided unmistakable evidence that China had found a way to sidestep international scrutiny of its manufacturing and packaging supply chains.
“We are foreign prisoners in Shanghai Qingpu prison China,” read the message written in capital letters inside a Christmas card purchased by the Widdicombe family. “Forced to work against our will. Please help and notify human rights organization.” The message also urged the reader to contact me personally.
The message Florence Widdicombe found inside a purchased Christmas card in December 2019. Photo by Ben Widdicombe.
Tesco terminated its dealings with the factory that had made the cards and insisted that “we do not allow the use of prison labor in our supply chain.” Inside Qingpu’s Brigade Eight, which houses more than 300 foreign prisoners, officers were panicking.
“There was chaos, the prison officials were shaking with fear,” recalled Romeo Papava, another former inmate, whom I interviewed by video from his home in Tbilisi, Georgia, after his release from Qingpu last year.
Captain Zhao Minfeng, the officer in charge of prison labor in Brigade Eight, was demoted for allowing the message incident to occur. Captain Wei Wei, an officer who prisoners say abused and beat prisoners – Wei was my tormentor during my own time at Qingpu – led a search to try to unmask the message writers but failed. Even so, he was rewarded for his heavy-handedness with a promotion and is now in charge of the brigade, Papava said.
The prison blocked television news broadcasts for two days, but word quickly spread about the secret message in the Christmas card and the fact that the authorities were denying everything.
Anatomy of a Cover-up
The 2019 scandal ignited feverish activity by the Chinese propaganda apparatus to cover up and deny the naked truth. “It is such an imaginative story, the opposite of efforts to reform prisoners,” prison governor Li Qiang told Communist Party (CCP)-controlled Central Chinese Television (CCTV).
“Prisoners only work voluntarily,” Li said. “The prisoners get reasonable payment for their work.” By this he was referring to a paltry maximum of 120 renminbi (under $20) for one month of full-time work.
A broadcast on Xinhua TV labeled the story “fake news” and said it had been “denied by foreign prisoners in Qingpu.” “An Italian and a Burundian inmate said they were not forced to do anything,” it reported. The owner of the Christmas card factory said the story was “fabricated” and that he did not even know the contact details of the prison.
Another broadcast from an outlet of Shanghai United Media Group showed foreign prisoners acting in a drama, accessing video lessons, playing chess, writing, and making handicrafts. It showed the Italian and Burundian pretending to do Chinese calligraphy. This is quite remarkable, considering they had only been in China for a short time and did not know the Chinese language. The Italian even claimed he was studying the saxophone. But prisoners say such activities are rare and are only for a privileged few prisoners who collaborate with their captors.
CCTV also aired a clip with the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang denying the story and alleged that I had “fabricated a farce” in my reporting. Geng even bizarrely denied the existence of labor at all in the Chinese prison system, even though it is actually written into China’s prison law.
The Cover-up as Seen From Inside the Prison
“On Christmas Day they sent Chinese TV to the prison to do a cover-up and to show how wonderful our life was in there,” said Papava, an import-export trader who served a four-and-a-half year sentence for an alleged theft. “Two prisoners – an Italian rapist and a Burundian car thief – were put in front of the cameras to lie. They said exactly what they were told to say.”
Papava said the two men were rewarded with “merit points” that gave them extra prison privileges.
In this screenshot from a video report by The Paper, prisoners from Italy and Burundi practice calligraphy. The text reads, in Chinese, “We can also study Chinese history, ancient Chinese poetry, and Chinese language.” Other prisoners say the interviews and activities that appeared on camera in Chinese state media reports about Qingpu Prison were elaborately staged.
Released prisoners, including one of the authors of the messages, have told me the officers never succeeded in finding the authors of the letter Florence discovered. Their identities were disguised in my original Sunday Times piece. One author remains in the prison, and I have withheld his identity to protect him.
In the aftermath of the Tesco story, “all work stopped because they stopped delivering raw materials,” Siakatsky said. Prisoners were later pressed to sign a “voluntary consent” form to show that they participated willingly in prison labor. Signing the forms became part of the formula that earned prisoners sentence reduction points.
“If you want to leave prison earlier … you have to be sure to work,” said Siakatsky.
Prisoners in both foreign and Chinese cell blocks there were also afterwards forbidden to take pens into work areas “so that no one could write a message and hide it inside a product,” said Siakatsky. While work on commercial products resumed for Chinese prisoners, foreign inmates were, for a time, restricted to goods that were seemingly bound for domestic markets.
Recently released prisoners said they worked last year on clothing for Hotwind, a Chinese streetwear fashion brand; others worked on prison guard uniforms and the lettering on computer keyboards that bore no brand names while they handled them. A Nigerian named Thursday, freed last July, said prison work on commercial products was continuing when he came home.
“I was there on that Christmas when it happened. They denied we were working on the Tesco Christmas cards. We were so upset when these two prisoners lied to Chinese media. They were trying to control China’s image to the world,” said Thursday, now a real estate broker in Nigeria’s Delta. “They stopped the labor for some months and then started again. They were still doing it when I was released.”
Forced Prison Labor: The Norm, Not the Exception
Forced labor is in fact the norm across the Chinese prison system. When I was in the pretrial Shanghai Detention Center in 2013-2014 they had just abolished manufacturing labor there, ending the production of Christmas lights for export. But I witnessed prison labor in Qingpu. I saw thousands of Chinese prisoners march daily across the campus in military style to the prison factory, which made textiles for famous labels including Adidas and Nike and electronic parts.
In Brigade Eight I personally witnessed the making of packaging materials for H&M, C&A, and 3M, which I wrote about in 2018. All these companies denied any knowledge of this activity and I am inclined to believe them, especially as H&M was my own former consultancy client.
Today, prisoners have told me that if you refuse to do this work, you will not be considered for sentence reduction and early release, and you will lose other privileges such as prison shopping and family telephone calls. So most foreign prisoners reluctantly do it, especially as anyone who refuses becomes a target for abuse.
It is also well-known that interned Uyghurs in Xinjiang have been forced to labor on cotton farms and in textile factories over the past few years as part of the CCP’s genocidal policies in that region. But the practice is not unique to the Uyghurs. Forced labor is in fact pervasive throughout the entire Chinese prison system, and is present in all Chinese incarceration facilities, which hold many millions of prisoners.
The “message-in-a-bottle” tactic is used from time to time to seek foreign help, as it was in the Tesco incident. But it carries high risks. Some years ago a Chinese prisoner in a labor camp at a place called Masanjia smuggled out a letter inside Halloween decorations that ended up in a Wal-Mart store in Seattle and became a sensation. After his release, he moved to Indonesia where he was killed. There are suspicions he was murdered by Chinese agents for blowing the whistle.
Every Chinese prison relies on income from commercial manufacturing contracts to fund itself, and officers earn bonuses for bringing in business and reaching financial targets. The senior officer in my Brigade Eight earned a luxury holiday in Fiji while I was there. Forced labor is embedded in the prison system. China’s prison network is an enterprise and an industry.
The Christmas Card Incident: Echoes Today
Florence Widdicombe still remembers the sense of bewilderment she felt when she pulled a card from the box her parents had bought from their local Tesco branch, and was annoyed to discover that someone had “already written in it.”
Two years later, with COVID-19 restrictions easing in England, I visited the Widdicombes’ south London home before Christmas for a sandwich lunch and met Florence for the first time. I asked her how she felt about the viral media attention that she got in 2019.
“I didn’t really understand why it was so important,” she told me with a little grin. “My teachers all knew about it. My teacher said I did a good thing.”
Her father Ben, a civil servant who specialized in criminology, realized at once what his daughter had found. The impact from her discovery is still being felt in Qingpu Prison to this day.
While finishing off this report, I received a handwritten document from a foreign prisoner that was smuggled out of Qingpu. The document, titled “The Black Curtain,” is a protest letter covering a wide range of topics, including forced labor and the Christmas card episode.
“Not only was there forced labor, but labor performance was interlaced with inmate shopping grades and most importantly your sentence remission and commutation,” the writer complained. ”In plain language it means that if you do not perform your labor, your remission and commutation of sentence would be impossible.”
He described the scene on that Christmas Day and confirmed Siakatsky’s starring role in the protest against the cover-up. Graciously, he exonerated prison governor Li Qiang by saying, “don’t blame it on Li, he is just one of thousands of puppet officers molded from the production line of the Chinese Communist Party.”
He ended the topic with an appeal: “We hope the international human rights organizations Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Interights, the U.N. High Commission, seek more aggressive actions against China.”
德国宪法保护局最新指出网络攻击组织APT27不断向德国企业发动袭击，APT27则被锁定来自中国。
德国情报机构宪法保护局周三（1月26日）在其新闻发布中指出，他们掌握的情报显示网络攻击组织APT27（Advanced Persistent Threat）对德国企业发动了持续不断的攻击，在此行动中，该黑客组织使用的是袭击软件HYPERBRO的一个变种。
他们发现，自2021年3月以来这些袭击者利用微软邮件服务软件Microsoft Exchange出现的漏洞展开攻击，此外，软件Zoho AdSelf Service Plus1也为黑客袭击打开方便之门。Zoho AdSelf Service Plus1是印度产品，许多公司使用它管理云端账号。
虽然德国宪法保护局周三的新闻发布里没有直接点中国的名字，即没有指明APT27来自哪个国家，但该局曾在其2019年的年度报告有关中国黑客袭击的章节里写道，"可能的袭击者比如
APT 27，又名Emissary Panda，使用自己开发的软件
HYPERBRO 和 FOCUSFJORD，它们对多个外国政府机构进行了黑客袭击。受害者尤其是那些同北京就一带一路基础设施建设项目进行谈判的国家。"
在本次的新闻发布中，德国宪法保护局尤其向企业发出警告，称袭击者不仅会窃取公司秘密以及智力产权方面的信息，企业同客户之间、同服务商之间的网络遭到病毒污染的可能性也无法排除。宪法保护局还称，他们观察到APT27袭击德国境内目标的力度在加强。
2021年3月， 微软表示一个与中国政府有关的网络间谍组织一直利用微软邮件服务软件中的漏洞，从远程入侵电子邮件信箱。
2021年7月，挪威政府称当年3月10日对该国议会电子邮件系统发动的网络攻击是从中国进行的。稍后，法国国家资讯系统安全局（ANSSI）发布公告称，由中国政府所支持的黑客团体APT31正向法国展开大规模的网路攻击，目前已有许多法国组织遭黑客攻击。
当月，美国拜登政府也正式指控中国政府通过利用黑客组织的方式，扶植了一整套黑客行动的产业链。拜登政府认为，中国及俄罗斯政府在黑客袭击中扮演了关键的角色。拜登去年7月访问全美情报总署时表示："如果我们最终陷入一场战争、一场与另一个大国的真枪实战，那么网络漏洞将会是这场战争的导火线。"
针对以上指责，无论是俄罗斯，还是中国，都矢口否认该国同任何黑客行为有关联。中国外交部发言人赵立坚去年7月在一次例行新闻会上说，"美国是对中国网络攻击的最大来源国。数据显示，2020年，中国相关机构捕获超过4200万个恶意程序样本，在境外来源的恶意程序样本中，有53%来自美国。要论全球'头号黑客'，如果美国自称第二，没人敢称第一。"
Demythologizing the Shaolin Monks Just about everything you think you know about the Shaolin Monks was made up for tourists.
Today we're going up into the misty mountains of China's Henan Province, to find an ancient red Zen Buddhist temple. It is the home of the Shaolin, said to be the creators of kung fu, and the very birthplace of Zen Buddhism itself. This ancient and mysterious order of orange or yellow robed monks have studied here for centuries, and are the most accomplished of all martial artists, able to withstand any blow or attack. At least, so the story goes.
Americans got their first big exposure to the Shaolin monks with the 1970s TV series Kung Fu starring David Carradine. In the intro, we see him as a young monk completing a rite of passage ceremony where he had to lift and move a heavy cauldron filled with glowing cinders, and in doing so his arms were branded with a dragon and a tiger. For all his quiet wisdom and serenity, this monk had fighting skills that were unsurpassed. It was a combination that was deeply attractive to Western audiences of the seventies obsessed with the superiority of Eastern enlightenment over Western materialism.
This obsession has not been lost on marketers. Today you can go to virtually any city in the world and find a Shaolin martial arts school. You can go to a theme park or aboard a cruise ship and catch a live stage show of Shaolin masters demonstrating their amazing abilities. Never mind that almost none of these have any connection with the actual Shaolin Temple. China is a land where counterfeit Apple Stores outnumber real ones by hundreds to one; and just as we'd expect, the name Shaolin is exploited every bit as much. But even the real Shaolin Temple licenses its name to anything and everything, even including instant noodles, coffee, take-out foods, tea, car tires, beer, and cigarettes, pulling in untold volumes of cash. The Shaolin Temple itself is little more than a tourist attraction now: take a five-minute group kung fu lesson with everyone else from the tour bus, and pose for your group photo holding your certificate; then stay for the live show, a mind-blowing combination of Cirque du Soleil and New Year's Eve at Times Square. It's little wonder that many serious martial artists hold the modern Shaolin in such disdain: the authentic ones sold out to be pawns for official government public relations, and the inauthentic ones exist only to cheat extra dollars out of naive martial arts students impressed with the venerable name. In short, it's very, very easy to find lots of uncomplimentary things to say about the modern Shaolin.
But even if all of that's true, it merely poisons the well of the
Shaolin monks' actual history and actual abilities. It's still valuable
to know these things; real history offers real insight and real lessons.
But we find we quickly come up against a roadblock. It comes in the
form of 1500 years of shifting governments and recycled, repurposed
histories. It's trivial to look up and read about the history of the
Shaolin, but the more scholarly the research, the more likely you are to
encounter qualifications like "many historians consider this to be
fictional" or "these stories are more accurately considered traditions
than facts". But one thing we can say for sure: attempts to nail down
the history of the Shaolin past 1928 are fraught with peril.
1928 was a pivotal year for China. It was the end of the warlord era, and the beginning of the reign of Chiang Kai-shek. For several years, growing Republican sentiment had been separating the warlords, but with a complexity far beyond the scope of a Skeptoid episode, combining ideologies, religious differences, and political changes. Suffice it to say that in March of 1928, the Shaolin found themselves with the wrong loyalties at the wrong time, the temple was overrun along with the surrounding city, and some 200 monks were killed. Elements of the National Army spent weeks systematically burning and destroying this symbol of Old China. Modern histories are always quick to point out that this loss included their library; more about that soon.
Prior to the 1928 destruction, the true history of the Shaolin Temple is probably quite mundane compared to its traditional history, which is filled with many more battles and cases of destruction. In particular it's said that the Qing Dynasty, sometime in the 1600s or 1700s, destroyed the Shaolin Temple and caused five fugitive monks to disperse throughout the land, thus creating a surrogate history for some of the other Shaolin temples and the spread of kung fu. Such stories are probably not true. Plenty of photographs of Shaolin Temple taken in the 1920s and earlier still exist, and show that the buildings were very old. Inscriptions can be seen in the photos documenting other parts of its long history of not being destroyed.
Nevertheless, there are times in its history when the Shaolin Temple was ransacked and even abandoned for periods of time, but it does not seem to have ever been destroyed prior to 1928.
Its original founding does indeed mark the probable start of both codified martial arts and Zen Buddhism in China, which is pretty remarkable. In the 5th century, an Indian Buddhist master named Buddhabhadra traveled to China to spread Buddhism, and by the year 477, he had become influential enough that Emperor Xiaowen of Northern Wei built the original Shaolin Temple for him to begin teaching Chinese monks. These are among the few facts of the early Shaolin that scholars generally agree upon.
Monks of all types had long practiced various forms of martial arts, particularly those closely associated with meditation, but it was during the decades surrounding the year 600 that the first true Shaolin methods began to be documented, now called the 18 arhat methods, and said to be based on the movements of five long-lived animals. Traditionally, but probably not factually, they are attributed to another visiting Indian Buddhist named Bodhidharma, who felt the monks needed stricter physical discipline to help with lengthy meditations. Virtually every ancient Shaolin tradition has such a fanciful tale attached to it.
Over the ensuing centuries, the Shaolin Temple performed basically the same function as it still did into the 20th century. It was essentially a boarding school for boys. The younger the recruit, the better; students as young as 5 or 6 years old were preferred. They developed tremendous flexibility and agility, and studied Buddhism. Ordinary students were called Secular Disciples, and once they reached young adulthood, most would go onto other things; but the few elite might become Martial Monks, the advanced level. Martial Monks, too, would eventually retire from the school and go onto other lives, but a few would make it a career.
After the Republican revolution, the Shaolin Temple was rebuilt, but operated modestly. In the ensuing decades, Mao's Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s and the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s marginalized the Shaolin Temple as it did other religious orders of all kinds throughout China. But then, after Chairman Mao's death, the Shaolin's golden modern era began, and became what we see today.
By the late 1970s the Temple was back in full business. It had been tremendously boosted by the Western publicity; young people from Europe and America clamored to train as Shaolin monks. The school of Secular Disciples was full of boys from mainly affluent Chinese families, and the Temple had to create a program for Foreign Disciples to accommodate the demand for martial arts tourism. And then, the Chinese government took notice.
The Shaolin Temple's value as a tourist attraction and a symbol of traditional China was clear. In 1980, the Chinese government hired a number of former masters to write new sacred Shaolin texts to replace those lost in 1928 (which is one reason there is so little reliability in modern texts on Shaolin history), and also to break ground on over 40 satellite schools. Today there are schools throughout China teaching these newly authored Shaolin methods, the largest of which accommodates over 8,000 students. The Shaolin were a symbol and a brand.
This new government-sponsored version of Shaolin was not blind to the value of sensationalism in marketing. And so something happened that should not surprise regular Skeptoid listeners. New abilities, some of them apparently superhuman, began to appear in the rewritten sacred texts. Suddenly the Shaolin martial artists were resisting spears thrust into their necks. They were standing on one finger. They were breaking bricks and sticks and stones with their heads. They were walking on fire and lying on beds of nails. They were resisting the most savage blows to every part of their anatomy, from punches, kicks, and sledgehammers. They were even doing all kinds of things with their testicles.
Without exception, all of these amazing feats are stage show tricks,
performed all around the world in many different cultures. Martial
artists call them bullshido.
There's no need to go into each of them here, if you're curious about
any of them — breaking the spear against the neck, for example —
Professor Google will show you how you can do it too.
Today you'll find these Shaolin stage shows all over the world. If you've ever seen one, chances are it had no affiliation with the Shaolin Temple. Ever since the name Shaolin became a valuable brand, international promoters have been as quick to capitalize on it as were the Chinese, and it's currently trademarked in virtually every country. Nearly all of those trademarks were registered by businesspeople with no connection to the Shaolin. For more than a decade, the actual Shaolin Temple has been fighting legal battles and filing trademark complaints all over the world. The real Shaolin would love to give their own stage shows across Europe and the West; but in most countries they can't, because they'd be infringing on someone else's trademark. The battle they face is an uphill one. Many of these performing groups and martial arts academies were legitimately the first to conduct business in their country under the name, and in most countries, that's all that's needed to establish ownership of a trademark.
In 1972, when American TV viewers first saw Kwai Chang Caine wrap his arms around the hot cauldron and brand himself with the marks, what they didn't see was the rest of this elaborate test called the Wooden Men Labyrinth. But nobody else ever saw it either, because like so much of what we think we know of the Shaolin, it was the purely fictional invention of modern authors. Combined with the fake stage-show feats of indestructibility, this web of mythology woven around the reinvented Shaolin is most unfortunate. It takes away from what they really are. It's a school that teaches profound discipline and unmatched athleticism, in addition to its importance to the history of Zen Buddhism. Strip away the microwave noodle licensing and the bullshido, and let the Shaolin shine as the great symbol of traditional China they should be.
俄罗斯与乌克兰间的紧张态势持续，普京政权气焰如此嚣张，得益于多种外界因素。“华尔街日报”一篇分析指出以下三种因素：美国对海外用兵投鼠忌器的厌战心理，德国对俄罗斯的能源依赖，和与中国的友好关系。都助长克里姆林宫施压乌克兰的气焰。
“华尔街日报”的华府主编赛布（Gerald F. Seib）的专文指出，俄国总统普京眼看乌克兰与俄渐行渐远，因而动念施压，但能够让他觉得可以这样做的理由，主要来自美、中、德3国间的相关连动。
前美国国防部长、长年分析俄国情势的盖茨（Robert Gates）认为：“普京眼看乌克兰与西方间强化关系已势不可挡，美国与其他欧洲盟国都在提供武器与训练；乌克兰也许加入不了北约，但与北约安全关係增加却日复一日，就普京看来，需要在局势恶化到不可逆之前展开施压。”
另一方面，美国连续3位总统奥巴马、特朗普及现任的拜登在言行上都表明，美国已厌倦海外行事，尤其军事动作，这让美国军事回应俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的可能性降低，特别去年夏天美国阿富汗撤军的狼狈相，更加深普京对美国不愿武力干预的判断。
曾在白宫国家安全会议任职、目前任教于哥伦比亚大学的俄国事务专家塞斯坦诺维奇（Stephen Sestanovich）说：“很难让人不联想，拜登在阿富汗的灰头土脸让普京觉得可以软土深掘。”
该文还指出，德国也在此刻给了普京怀疑西方会团结应对的理由。德国决定2022年底前关闭境内所有核电厂，使其能源更加仰赖俄国进口，使得普京手上又多了筹码。
赛布认为，德国官员在口头上力挺乌克兰，但实际行动时却又是另一回事。连人口100万出头的爱沙尼亚都愿把武器送至乌克兰展现团结相挺，人口8300万的德国却拒发许可让德制武器出口。
俄罗斯与中国的关係加温也给了普京一定的自信，他觉得俄国可在北京相助下，挺过西方对俄国一旦侵乌后祭出的经济制裁。普京也将是本届北京冬奥最具份量的外宾。
该文认为，削弱美国的国际威望是俄中的共同利益，如果俄罗斯施压乌克兰成功，更会给北京在台海问题上引路。前美国国防部长盖茨就说，如果俄中之间未就西方可能经济制裁俄国讨论北京如何支援，那才是怪事。
因俄国12万大军压境而战云密布的乌克兰危机，进入相当戏剧化的肃杀24小时。在美国国务院周日深夜宣布撤出驻乌大使馆眷属与非必要员工，并建议所有旅乌美国人“第一时间离境”后，周一英国、澳洲与德国外交部也连忙跟进了对乌克兰的“准撤侨”指示。与此同时，五角大厦24日也收到拜登总统的战略急令，要求8,500名“本土美军”提高战斗准备，随时要奉北约之令深入东欧的乌克兰前线.
俄国12万大军压境而战云密布的乌克兰危机，美国五角大厦24日收到拜登总统的战略急令，要求8,500名“本土美军”提高战斗准备。根据军系媒体流出的消息，奉命准备开赴乌克兰边境的越洋前锋，应该是正驻军在北卡罗莱纳州布拉格堡基地的美国陆军82空降师。
“西方‘准撤侨’的警告指示，让乌克兰中央政府很不爽。”因俄国12万大军压境而战云密布的乌克兰危机，进入相当戏剧化的肃杀24小时。在美国国务院周日深夜宣布撤出驻乌大使馆眷属与非必要员工，并建议所有旅乌美国人“第一时间离境”后，周一英国、澳洲与德国外交部也连忙跟进了对乌克兰的“准撤侨”指示。与此同时，五角大厦24日也收到拜登总统的战略急令，要求8,500名“本土美军”提高战斗准备，随时要奉北约之令深入东欧的乌克兰前线——但对于美国方面的肃杀备战，身为欧洲盟军两大巨头的德国与法国，却颇不以为然，像是法国总统府就私下透露：“法国并不认为有‘俄军入侵乌克兰’的迫切风险。”
乌克兰危机的局势演变，24日轮到“美国连续动作”。周一下午，美国总统拜登也与欧洲盟军领袖——包括欧盟主席冯德莱恩、法国总统马克宏、德国总理萧兹、英国首相强生、波兰总统杜达...等人——针对乌俄危机展开长达90分钟的视讯密谈。会后，拜登相当满意地表示“西方阵营非常团结”，接着就由五角大厦公告美军的应变策略。
五角大厦24日表示，有鉴于乌克兰危机持续升温，美方已决定提前启动，要求8,500名“本土美军”进入备战待命，只要北约一下达快速应变部队的动员令，这8,500兵力的部队就能在第一时间空降进入东欧前线。
虽然五角大厦并没有公开收到战备指示的是哪些部队，但根据军系媒体流出的消息，奉命准备开赴乌克兰边境的越洋前锋，应该是正驻军在北卡罗莱纳州布拉格堡基地的美国陆军82空降师。
美国国防部特别强调，这批奉命进入出发准备状态的美军部队“目前还不在欧洲”。而部队之所以还没有直接出动，则是依当前的战略局势判断，
“假若盟军确认要启动‘北约快速反应部队’（NATO Response Force）的动员机制...作为区外部队的这8,500名美军，才会增援进入欧洲大陆。”
五角大厦之所以透露“8,500兵力”、“部队还不在欧洲”、“要等北约共同启动动员”的一系列资讯，都是意有所指的外交施压。因为白宫与军方此前所透露给《纽约时报》等主流媒体的消息，此前都是判断“拜登可能马上派出5,000美军直奔东欧或波罗的海三国”——但本回实际传令的部队规模虽然更大，本土待命的指示却离原本预期的“直接出动”还有一段时间差，因此全案才会被外交舆论判断为：
“美国正在放缓‘军事对立’的冲击强度，一方面要避免俄国受到进一步刺激，二方面也要给欧洲盟邦跟进立场的政治时间。”
事实上，常驻于布拉格堡基地的82空降师，本来就是美国用于全球战略应变的弹性部队。而目前除了可能担当战略箭头率先出动的82空降师第1旅级战斗队，其上级单位“美国陆军第18空降军”麾下的——101空降师、第3步兵师、第10山地师...等同僚单位——也都随时能在48小时内空降东欧前线战术就位。
鉴此，白宫与五角大厦24日故意强调部队还在本土的“公告传令”，才被认为是意有所指的降缓威胁暗示。
美国之所以要“轻踩煞车”的主要原因。除了北约成员之间仍有“立场分歧”的不团结因素外，来自乌克兰总统泽伦斯基的“不满牢骚”，则可能是另一个政治顾虑。
泽伦斯基政府对于美国的抱怨，主要是美国国务院1月23日深夜发出的“撤侨指示”（命令外馆眷属即刻离境，非必要职员尽可能撤离；官方建议美国公民不要前往乌克兰，旅乌美国人则也应“趁机场还运作，战争还没开打之前”于第一时间尽快离开乌克兰）。在其之后，英国、澳洲与德国，也都跟进美国发出了类似的“准撤侨令”。
就美国的角度解释，针对乌克兰的撤侨指示只是客观判断的未雨绸缪，毕竟在阿富汗沦陷的喀布尔危机之后，美国已无法承担“第三次西贡沦陷”羞辱灾难；但对乌克兰政府来讲，美国公开启动逐步撤侨，即是高调暗示对乌克兰的没有信心，这对于国难当前的民心士气也是相当负面的打击。
例如美国《Buzzfeed News》目前派驻在乌克兰的资深战地记者米勒（Christopher Miller），就引述一名泽伦斯基亲信的不具名说法：
“华府一直和乌克兰人民主传教，一直说：美国会站在乌克兰这边、我们会支持乌克兰加入西方阵营的意志、我们会与你们站在同一阵线抵抗俄罗斯的侵略...现在俄国真的来门口闹事了，结果喊最大声的美国人们，却是第一个拔营逃跑的外馆国家？”
1月21日，美国高级飞行员在多佛空军基地收拾弹药、武器和其他设备，准备送往乌克兰。图／
乌克兰政府的牢骚与不满，不仅只由驻乌记者带话传开。此前一直向世界高调求援的乌克兰总统泽伦斯基，24日更是一反常态地对全国提出“冷静喊话”。泽伦斯基表示，虽然当前国内外都有大量战争的谣言与风声，但已在乌克兰边境派出12万重兵的俄国军队目前并没有更进一步的威胁动态，前线的情报风声没有太多变化，“一切动态都在我们的掌控之中，乌克兰人没有理由自乱阵脚！”
与之前的爱国动员不太一样，泽伦斯基在周一的演说中，不断强调“边境局势平稳没有恶化”，乌克兰政府与西方盟国的外交与军事沟通也非常密切，
“乌克兰的国军有信心守护我们的国家，但我们也需要人民自己来保护自己——首先最重要的任务，就是请国民们保持冷静，没必要散播失败主义、因风吹草动就鬼叫着‘输定了！打不赢！’——只要乌克兰人能团结，对于卫国之战有决心准备，我们就有信心扛下各种侵略。”
事实上，西方盟国虽然开始针对外馆文职人员、侨民发出撤离建议，但以美军为首的军事支援并没有因此减少。除了美军、英军与波罗的海三国持续向乌克兰提供军火运补之外，英军周末也加强了在波罗的海的驻军兵力，美国以“绿扁帽特种部队”为主的百馀名精锐战士与指导教官，也都仍持续随乌克兰军队行动训练。
除此之外，美国海军陆战队目前也开始调派兵力，陆续进入基辅美国大使馆“扩大防守”，但目前尚不清楚美军陆战队的入乌规模，也不确定这批部队的任务究竟是要协防外馆周边、还是为了紧急全撤的预先准备。
但在美国高调动员兵将的同时，北约的西欧盟国——特别是德国与法国——却都没有相对应的跟进表态。之中，北约虽然同意要往东欧前线增派战机与海军舰队，但总编制有4万战斗兵力的“北约快速反应部队”是否需要提前动员？目前却没有一个公开的说法与时间表。
巴黎与柏林的犹豫与低调，不仅反映了欧洲对于俄罗斯的投鼠忌器。以法国总统马克宏为首的西欧盟军，更不断开始发出“疑美论”的圈内低语。像是法国大报《世界报》日前就引述了一名爱丽榭宫高级幕僚的私下说法，直言：
“巴黎与柏林都无法理解，华府与伦敦为什么要一直散播‘乌克兰局势’的恐慌消息？因为就我们来看，各种情报都不能证明俄军真会武力入侵。”
法国政府私下透过《世界报》抱怨，美国与英国所收到的前线情报，虽然与德国、法国的盟军共享，但同样的情报双方却有差异极大的解读。英美认为俄军的备战已经蓄势待发，但法德这边却不认为莫斯科的战争机器已真心就位，“我们从卫星看到一样的战车、火炮、部队动员数量...但这些资讯都不足以客观证明‘战争正在逼近’。”
巴黎方面认为，华府与伦敦的外交姿态都只是在火上加油，甚至意图以此“绑架北约与欧州”。在各种局势升温的状态，柏林与巴黎只要对于美国的说法有不同意见，就可能冒着“分裂西方团结”的控诉罪责与战略风险。
不过马克宏政府的抱怨，也被法国政坛认为是另一种“计中计”的政治盘算。因为马克宏即将在今年春天迎来总统连任大选，尽管外交政策对于选战加分有限，但怀疑者也都认为他是故意要和美国唱反调，以重演当年前总统希拉克“力阻小布什入侵伊拉克”的新戴高乐时刻。
与此同时，乌克兰大报《乌克兰真理报》本周也刊出了一系列的本地智库分析。其结论判断莫斯科对于乌克兰的野心与威胁虽然是客观事实，但就当前的兵力布署、动员规模与可知客观证据来看，
“俄军并没有‘全面开战乌克兰’的实力，也不太可能在2月底之前，以此动态发动‘全军突袭’。”
报导的分析认为，俄罗斯在乌克兰边境虽然布下了三方重兵，但12万人的部队规模“并没有比2021年春季危机更多”。假若俄军的目的是要消灭乌克兰所有武力并推翻当前政府，“10万大军根本不够用...光是攻城与占领，俄军就没有速战速决的能量与必胜把握。”
此外，俄军虽然在西部地区调集血库、并从后方召来大批用于前线占领的宪兵团，但就前线确认的情报来看，“俄国尚没有作出足以应付全面开战的‘大规模战时医疗总动员’。”这一方面可能是俄国COVID-19疫情还是严重导致医疗量能吃紧，另一方面也暗示俄国还没有决心作好开战的后勤准备。
乌方认为，要判断俄军是否即将开战，后方医疗动员的命令规模、西部地区的油料价格与补给车队，都是比较客观且难以闪避的“战争预兆”；同时，俄军的战斗兵团都来自于西伯利亚、高加索与中亚驻地，到了乌克兰前线后还有兵力休整、重新战训的“战备问题”。
光是乌克兰冬季的特殊地理与气候环境，就需要好一段时间战训准备，更何况要调动十多万大军？而此一说法，也应证了俄国其他独立媒体的调查访查，针对俄军部队“到了乌克兰前线之后才发现机械装备妥善率低于50％”的各种埋怨。
报导结论认为，就当前的客观局势来看，俄军没有发动全面入侵的条件。就算莫斯科真心要开战，驻守乌克兰边境的俄罗斯部队至少还需要2~3个星期的“大规模调整与动员”，才能满足发动战争的最低后勤基准。
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U.S. reminds China, nuclear-armed subs are always here |
Hello
from New York. Does Beijing see a golden opportunity to take action in
the Taiwan Strait while the U.S. is occupied with Ukraine? While we do
not know, the U.S. military is certainly making sure that the Chinese
leadership has no such illusions. |
In looking at Russian strategy in Ukraine, and indirectly toward the United States, there is a mystery that seems to have an obvious answer but that is difficult to simply accept.
Moscow started with a relatively slow deployment of forces along the Ukrainian border. It appeared to be in a position to invade Ukraine with minimal opposition. Rather than attack, though, Russia engaged in a diplomatic confrontation with the United States, demanding that Ukraine never be admitted into NATO, and that NATO limit its deployment of weapons in Eastern Europe.
Russian negotiators knew full well that the U.S. would never agree to these terms. For one thing, it’s a decision for NATO, not Washington. For another, NATO members in the region are at the easternmost frontier of the alliance. They are the most exposed to potential Russian actions, particularly if Russia takes control of Ukraine. In short, capitulating to Russian demands would leave Eastern Europe open to Russian attacks. Most important to Washington, though, is that its credibility would be mortally wounded, not just in Europe but around the world. Allowing the Russians to force the United States to agree on future relations with a sovereign state was simply a nonstarter. The consequences would be global, and not for nothing, it would create a political crisis in the United States the administration could not manage.
It doesn’t make sense for Russia to delay military operations while making demands it knew were going to be rejected, especially since its military was already deployed. Why would Russia, if fully committed to entering and occupying Ukraine, give the West time to prepare military countermeasures? Moscow understands that its actions would be seen as a threat because that is how they were meant to be seen. It understands there would be a response, but it also understands it can’t be certain what the response would be. Air and naval forces and anti-tank weaponry, for example, could dramatically complicate the invasion.
An invasion of Ukraine is difficult in the best conditions. The
country is roughly the size of Afghanistan, and coordinating a complex
armored operation presents untold opportunities for failure. The Russian
army has not carried out an armored operation since World War II, so
the troops are inexperienced. Minimizing the possibility of an
anti-Russian buildup would increase the risk to the operation. In an
operation of this magnitude, the attack should be made as early as
possible. By waiting, Russia increased the risk of failure.
It’s possible, then, that Moscow wanted to float an impossible proposal for propaganda purposes. But the value of world public opinion compared to a successful military operation is minimal. After an invasion, public opinion would be against Russian aggression regardless of diplomatic niceties. The value of public opinion, in other words, only takes you so far.
The only conclusion to be drawn is that Russia has no intention of
invading Ukraine, as Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has
repeatedly said. Given that Russia failed to act when it could and
arguably should have, it seems to me that he might have been telling the
truth. On the other hand, we have seen the Russians be active, albeit
more subtly, in Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Logic dictates
that Russia must rebuild its historic buffer zone and that Ukraine is
essential in this regard. Moscow has done everything in its power to
create an atmosphere of crisis. Perhaps it had intelligence that the
U.S. and NATO would fold their cards. But the U.S. can’t afford to do
nothing. President Joe Biden’s threat to the Russian banking system
is either far more devastating than I can fathom or simply a cover for
military action. So in this sense, the U.S. is being coy as well, just
not nearly as confusingly as the Russians.
My best guess is the Russians have set up negotiation with the most
extreme demands as a normal negotiating strategy. But the fact remains
that Russian forces are deployed, and resistance is being strengthened.
It may be that the Russians are simply confident that their force is
still able to win. But a rule of war is that you strike at maximum
advantage, and give away no advantage. The rule of diplomacy is to make a
lot of threats before making a deal. Right now, it’s one or the other.
北约1月24日通过声明表示，北约盟国正在将部队置于待命状态，并向北约在东欧的军事部署增派舰艇和战斗机，在俄罗斯继续于乌克兰及其周边地区进行军事集结之际，加强盟国的威慑和防御。 爱沙尼亚总理卡拉斯（Kaja Kallas）另在接受英国《金融时报》采访时呼吁，美国向波罗的海地区派驻更多军事人员以威慑俄罗斯。她敦促西方国家保持团结，不要对莫斯科作出“哪怕是最小的让步”。
北约星期一发表的声明指出，“在过去的几天里，一些盟国已经宣布了关于目前或即将进行的军事部署。丹麦正在向波罗的海派遣一艘护卫舰，并准备向立陶宛部署四架F-16战斗机，以支持北约在该地区的长期空中警戒任务。”
声明续指，“西班牙正在派遣（西班牙海军）舰艇加入北约海军部队，并正在考虑向保加利亚派遣战斗机。法国已经表示准备在北约的指挥下向罗马尼亚派遣部队。荷兰将从4月起向保加利亚派遣两架F-35战斗机，以支持北约在该地区的空中警戒活动，并为北约的反应部队安排一艘舰艇和陆上部队待命。美国也明确表示，正在考虑增加其在联盟东部地区的军事存在。”
北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格（Jens Stoltenberg）表示：“我欢迎盟国向北约提供额外的部队。北约将继续采取一切必要措施来保护和捍卫所有盟国，包括加强联盟的东部地区。我们将始终应对安全环境的任何恶化，包括通过加强我们的集体防御。”
声明强调，“北约是一个防御性联盟。为了应对俄罗斯在2014年对克里米亚的非法吞并，北约增加了在联盟东部的存在，包括在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰的四个多国战斗群。这些部队分别由英国、加拿大、德国和美国领导，是多国部队，而且随时可以作战。他们的存在明确表明，对一个盟国的攻击将被视为对整个联盟的攻击。在2014年之前，联盟的东部地区没有（部署）北约部队。”2014年，俄罗斯动用武力吞并了克里米亚半岛。稍后，乌克兰东部又爆发了乌克兰政府军同亲俄武装之间的军事冲突。
此外，爱沙尼亚总理卡拉斯在《金融时报》周一刊登的专访中表示，无论俄罗斯是否入侵乌克兰，北约都应加强其在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛的东翼盟国防御。她补充说，爱沙尼亚希望看到“强大的盟国出现在我们的地区”，这是对美国军队驻扎在波罗的海地区的间接呼吁，因为其是唯一没有在该地区驻军的北约大国。
卡拉斯强调：“最大的威慑力是你有强大的朋友。如果你在学校被欺负，如果你有强壮的年长朋友，欺负你的人就不会欺负你，这和威慑力是一样的......对俄罗斯最大的威慑是一面美国国旗。”
卡拉斯还表示，俄罗斯向北约提出的要求“显然是蛮横无理的”，而且是符合前苏联外长葛罗米柯（Andrei Gromyko）理论的谈判模式的一部分，即作出最大限度要求，发出最后通牒，寸步不让。
卡拉斯补充说：“俄罗斯制造了一个问题，现在又威胁要通过蛮横的要求来解决这个问题。最大的问题是：西方的反应是什么？西方、北约、欧盟一直非常团结。这对俄罗斯人来说是一个糟糕的惊喜。我们必须保持这条路线的一致性。”
卡拉斯指出，若与莫斯科作出一些妥协听起来可能是“小事”，如限制军事演习或军备控制，但北约应该加以抵制。她说：“西方和北约应该向俄罗斯提供什么来缓和局势？这个问题已经是一个陷阱了。北约并没有造成这种局面。唯一能够缓和局势的是俄罗斯。”
卡拉斯坚称，她没有看到西方盟友“团结中的裂痕”，尽管最近对法国总统马克龙呼吁欧洲与俄罗斯进行对话表示担忧。卡拉斯说：“我们可能在战术上有不同的想法，但马克龙是真正意义上的欧洲人，总的来说欧洲对莫斯科是团结的”。
卡拉斯说：“无论如何，我们都希望看到这一点，加强北约的东翼。不仅仅是如果他们入侵乌克兰；我们长期以来一直在推动这一点。”爱沙尼亚是少数几个达到国防开支占GDP2%目标的北约国家之一，该国上周还宣布大幅增加军事开支，在2025年前将其提高3.8亿欧元。爱沙尼亚还向基辅支援反坦克导弹，帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的潜在侵略。
卡拉斯说，爱沙尼亚将提前执行已经制定的军事采购计划，将国防支出提高到GDP的约2.4%。她敦促其他欧洲国家也提高其国防开支，这是美国历任总统，特别是特朗普政府时期长期以来的要求。
卡拉斯补充说：“重要的是，我们要做我们自己的份内事，我们也希望我们的盟友能做他们的份内事……对于较强大的盟国来说，总是有一个问题，那就是我们不依靠你们，我们正在付出我们的份额。其他欧洲国家也应该（将国防开支）增加到（GDP的）2%。”
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