Chinese Leaders Losing Sleeps ?

American version can slam a target on the other side of the globe within 1.5 hours. No longer need to send out the B-2's. Instant karma type of warfare:-

 

印度成功试射超音速导弹

印度传媒报导，印度週日在奥里萨邦的昌迪普尔海上发射基地，成功试射一枚布拉莫斯超音速巡 航导弹。

新华社援引印度亚洲新闻通讯社报导称，布拉莫斯超音速巡航导弹在当地时间週日上午10时45分发射，其射程达290公里，能运载重达300公 斤的常规弹头，最高速度达2.8马赫。

报导援引一名国防部线人的话说：「巡航导弹从地面移动发射器发射，所有的数据已被重新取回供分析使用。」

布拉莫斯超音速巡航导弹，由总部在新德里的俄罗斯和印度联合创立的布拉莫斯航空航天公司製造，是世界上速度最快的巡航导弹之一。它具有超音 速、多弹道的性能特点，其突防能力、抗干扰能力和抗反导 拦截能力，被印俄媒体称为「最新式的巡航导弹」。

布拉莫斯导弹属於多军种通用型巡航导弹，它能从战斗机、陆基发射架和军舰上发射。目前，陆基型和海基型布拉莫斯超音速巡航导弹已成功试射。空 基型导弹的试射正在准备中。

Life Is Always Complicated - Top 40 oldies about what it's like for the Other Woman /Man

Sure, there are lots of songs about unfaithful lovers and spouses, but only a few in rock history dealt with what life was like for those on the inside - the actual Other Women and Other Men who found themselves entangled in loves they didn't see coming. These types of scandalous tunes were once entirely the domain of blues and country songs, since those genres tended to deal with life on its most basic level. Once the sexual revolution kicked into high gear, though, and casual sex starts to become a way of life, more and more top 40 songs began to wrestle with the issue of what happens when you find yourself loving someone you shouldn't.


    "(You Can Have My Husband but Please) Don't Mess With My Man," Irma Thomas

    Self-explanatory -- and even for hard '50s R&B, scandalous, partly because this wild stomper was being sung by the future Queen of New Orleans Soul when she was just 19... and already on her second husband!

    "Sally Go 'Round the Roses," The Jaynetts

    One of the eeriest and most inscrutable rock records of all time, this girl group classic is now considered by some to be a quiet anthem about cheating, lesbianism, or prostituion. The title comes from an innocent schoolyard chant, but if the roses are the only ones you can confess your "secret" to...
 
  "Walk on By," Leroy Van Dyke

    Country and Western music obviously broached this subject well before the pop mainstream dared to look at it, but Leroy's 1961 smash was still pretty direct for its day, leading to a whole strain of honky-tonk classics about cheatin' and lyin.'
  
 "The Dark End of the Street," James Carr

    An early Muscle Shoals classic, designed by Dan Penn and Chips Moman to be "the best cheating song, ever." They might be right -- it was covered notably by Percy Sledge, who knew a thing or three about turning impossible romantic situations into soul nirvana.

    "Slip Away," Clarence Carter

    Few songs capture the ache of part-time love like this aching ballad, another Muscle Shoals triumph and the one which turned Carter from a failed bluesman into a soul powerhouse. The way he wails on the line "What would I give" speaks (or rather sings) volumes.
  
 "Angel of the Morning," Merillee Rush

    Country-pop star Juice Newton had such success with her revamped version in 1981 that not a lot of folks even remember the original, which was almost as big a hit. Rush's tremulous delivery reveals just how much females were putting on the line back in 1968 - risking not just their heart but their social standing by being The Other Woman.
 
  "I Was Checkin' Out She Was Checkin' In," Don Covay

    The sadly underrated Covay was adept at blues, soul, and something he called "country funk," and this rare top 40 hit of his contains elements of all those styles. A sort of companion piece to Johnnie Taylor's "Who's Making Love," it shows in painful detail how cheating on someone else can backfire on the cheater, trapping them in a double headlock of awful secrets.
  
 "Tryin' to Love Two," William Bell

    The demands of family, career, and relationships can make holding down multiple relationships very difficult indeed, more so when one of those relationships covers up a lie about the other. Bell is most famous for the aching regret of "You Don't Miss Your Water," which could well be played as the sequel to this proto-disco classic.

   "Love the One You're With," Stephen Stills

    A clarion call for the new sexual permissiveness, the only big solo hit for this Buffalo Springfield/CSNY member made quite an impression, covered by a legion of artists who seemed to agree that living for the moment, despite your commitments, could be exhilarating. Stills got the title phrase from a saying of Billy Preston's, but the "fisted glove" idea... probably not.
  
 "(If Loving You Is Wrong) I Don't Want to Be Right," Luther Ingram

    Perhaps the king of all cheating songs, if only because Luther gets into so much detail about what's at stake. Apparently even the families and friends of these two know what's going on, which makes the silky, slow soul of this number a deliciously ticking time bomb. The intro somehow sounds like transgression; the rest sounds almost noble. Almost.
  
 "Breaking Up Somebody's Home," Ann Peebles

    Ann, on the other hand, doesn't seem to care at all, despite the fact that her own backup singers are advising her "don't break it up." Maybe it's the undeniable sexy thump of the famous Hi rhythm section egging her on, but the lady behind "I Can't Stand the Rain" practically explodes in frustration. Clearly it's about to get real.
  
 "Me and Mrs. Jones," Billy Paul

    One of the biggest hits on this playlist, and that has a lot to do with the expert atmosphere: seductive yet romantic, shamed yet determined, sad and noble. "Mrs. Jones" and Billy are "making plans," yet are "careful not to build our hopes up too high." Rhyming "wrong" and "strong" was the most natural thing he could have done.
  
 "Torn Between Two Lovers," Mary MacGregor

    The soft-rock wave was starting to pick up on the concept by this time, leading to a decade's worth of overshare on the part of some achingly sensitive people. Mary's so sensitive, in fact, that she thinks you should be fine with this arrangement, despite her indiscretion. Shades of Jefferson Airplane's "Triad," though that classic didn't involve actual cheating per se.
   
"Daytime Friends (and Night Time Lovers)," Kenny Rogers

    Then again, "lovers" rhyming with "discovers" is also pretty impressive. And necessary, too, because the twist here is that the two in question know each other already, and therefore have to look at each other all day, knowing what's going to keep happening. The Other Man is, in fact, this poor guy's best friend. Ouch.
  
 "Heaven's Just a Sin Away," The Kendalls

    The first hit for this father-daughter duo was aptly named indeed, as Jeannie's sweet vocals made cheating seem like its own reward. (Father Royce is either mixed too low or integrated too perfectly in the harmony to be heard much.) It also unleashed a slew of country hits for the two, almost all of which were based around the same theme.
  
 "Change of Heart," Bread

    The kings of awkward romantic moments (just check out their lyrics), Bread specialized in unhappy endings, but this latter-day album track makes sure everything ends up okay. That is, except for the unlucky guy she's already seeing, who gets a pretty cavalier sendoff: "When you change your heart / save yourself and forget all the rest."
   
"Sweet Thing," Rufus Featuring Chaka Khan

    A beautiful and ironic declaration of romantic fidelity that just happens to be directed at a married man. With lines like "I wish you were my lover / But you act so undercover," delivered as only Chaka can, it set the standard for modern R&B over the next two decades. It all boils down to the first two lines: "I will love you anyway / Even if you cannot stay."
 
  "No Tell Lover," Chicago

    An oddly indifferent-sounding ballad from Chicago's first comeback, and also very soulful, even as it eased the group into their upcoming Adult Contemporary incarnation. It's unclear who's cheating on who here, but Peter Cetera does specifically drop the word "affair" before urging, "Walk away if you see me coming."
  
 "The Agony and the Ecstasy," Smokey Robinson

    The man who invented Quiet Storm would naturally have to have a place on this list, even if he did steal the incredibly accurate title from a novel about Michaelangelo painting the Sistine Chapel. The awkward nobility comes on full force here, even if Smokey seems dazed as to how he got here and why his other woman puts up with his situation. Apparently it started out as a one-night stand, so the answer may lie between the sheets.

    "Kiss and Say Goodbye," Manhattans

    Was there ever a sadder #1 hit? The song's spoken intro alone, which sets up the rest of the song, proved too emotionally powerful to excise from the 45 release, and you can hear why - it's the culmination of every hard breakup in vocal group history, followed by a devastating tenor performance and an ad-lib that must have sent lots of doomed lovers straight to the bar.
 
  "Layla," Derek and the Dominoes

    Critic Dave Marsh famously said that this song's effect was as emotional and visceral as "witnessing a murder or a suicide." And yes, Eric Clapton's ode to his best friend George Harrison's wife, Patti Boyd, cuts so deep as to be almost painful to hear. Good thing it rocks so hard - at least until the equally famous piano coda, which sounds like your forbidden love kissing you one last time and driving away, slowly, for good.

末日博士：大马难抵挡完美风暴

鲁比尼全球经济諮询公司（Roubini Global Economics）表示，一旦「完美风暴」在近期出现，大马將是亚洲当中最为脆弱的经济体。所谓的完美风暴，是欧洲债务危机恶化、中美经济放缓，及中东 紧张局势上升等，所带来的潜在危机。

该策略研究企业的创办人为「末日博士」鲁比尼，他曾准確预测美国房贷市场的崩盘，以及2008年的全球金融风暴。

鲁比尼表示，大马目前存在著资金撤离的最高曝光度，因欧元区与美国银行当前投入的资金佔大马国內生產总值（GDP）的25%。

该公司报告指出，在美国、欧元区及中国需求放缓下，大马是亚洲经济体中，第二大最容易受到衝击的国家。同时，在应对危机方面，大马的货幣政策 与財政政策的应对能力为区域中最低之一，只排在泰国、日本和印尼之后。

「大马、台湾、韩国和越南是在完美风暴中，最容易受衝击的国家；然而，韩国、澳洲、越南与菲律宾等国，则仍具有政策空间以抵销上述的风暴衝 击。」

报告指出，大马、台湾、日本和泰国是当中最为脆弱的国家，而澳洲、印度、韩国和菲律宾的受影响程度则最小。

此外，鲁比尼表示，虽然大马政府的税收有所增加，但基於「派糖式」开销，以及国家石油的股息料减少下，其財政赤字依然持续扩大。

隨著全国大选在即，政府很可能在2013年財政预算案中，提供更多的现金援助，让国家缺乏资金来进行生產与投资。

债务比率影响应对外围衝击

鲁比尼强调，大马债务对国內经济总值的比率料將在明年来到54.6%，促使其应对外围衝击的调度空间有限。值得注意的是，大马政府债务目前比 重为54%，为亚洲內第二高。

而国內经济学家和分析员已在早前多次指出，大马政府债务已从07年，双倍成长至4210亿令吉，若不谨慎管理料让国家陷入財务危机。

根据財政部经济报告显示，政府债务在过去5年，从2470亿令吉双倍成长，至2011年预测的4210亿令吉，远远超过其税收的31%成长， 即从1400亿令吉至1830亿令吉。政府担保贷款则在1985年和2010年间迅速上扬，从110亿令吉至960亿令吉，每年成长为 8.7%。

〈中國已強大到在世界上 顯得孤獨〉

《環球時報》針對此事發表了一篇評論，題為〈中國已強大到在世界上 顯得孤獨〉是啊，高处不胜寒。太孤独了，一个朋友都没有.

從6月底到8月初，有22個國家在美國的主導下正在進行一場名為「環太平洋」的海軍演習。從演習的參與國、時間、地點、規模與項目各方面來看，中 共絕對是本區域重要的參與者，但是美國偏偏就是沒有邀請它！其中深意值得玩味。



從6月底到8月初，有22個國家在美國的主導下正在 進行一場名為「環太平洋」的海軍演習。大體說來，絕大多數太平洋周邊的國家－－甚至很多不在太平洋周邊－－都受邀參加了這次軍演，但是唯獨中共並未受邀。 近日，中共的喉舌《環球時報》針對此事發表了一篇評論，題為〈中國已強大到在世界上顯得孤獨〉。此文一出，輿論譁然，中國廣大網民大加撻伐，各種 嘻笑怒罵、嘲諷批評的意見紛紛出籠。那麼，《環球時報》這篇文章為什麼會引發眾怒呢？

本次「環太平洋」海軍演習的看點

這次「環太平洋」海軍演習的規模可以說是空前的。它由美國太平洋艦隊主導組織，一共包含了22個國家，出動戰艦42艘、潛艇6艘、戰機200多架 和海軍2萬5000人；美國自己也派出了「尼米茲」號航空母艦和「埃塞克斯」號兩棲突擊艦參加。除了規模龐大之外，演習的內容也非常複雜，據美方 公佈，這次演練的能力包括海上救難、海事安全、海域控制和複雜作戰，而課目則包括兩棲作戰、火炮、導彈、反潛和防空演練，反海盜、掃雷、排爆、潛 水及打撈等項目。

「環太平洋」海軍演習上次舉辦時是2010年，當時有亞太14國參加；而這次更增加了菲律賓、印度、俄羅斯、墨西哥、紐西蘭、挪威、東加和英國等 八國。從名單當中人們不難發現，近年來在亞太海域與中共發生過衝突的國家全數到齊。更令中共感到不安的是，不久前才與中共進行過聯合海軍演習的俄 羅斯這次也「首鼠兩端」地熱心參加了！

所以，從演習的參與國、時間、地點、規模與項目各方面來看，中共絕對應該是本區域重要的參與者之一，但是美國偏偏就是沒有邀請它！其中深意當然值 得人們玩味，而最想「玩味」的當然就是中共。

亞太衝突與美國的「海上扼制圈」

國際觀察家都注意到，近幾年來亞太海域的衝突大為增加。朝鮮半島上的南北韓先後發生了擊沉軍艦與砲擊離島等衝突，最後還導致了美國航空母艦進入黃 海並與中共爆發齟齬。

日本與中共為了釣魚臺產生摩擦、菲律賓與中共為了黃巖島出現對抗、越南與中共為了南沙群島而幾乎動武。同時還注意到，周邊國家都開始加強武裝，例 如：越南積極強化空軍與海軍，而印度也在大力擴建海軍，其中尤以航空母艦計畫最為引人注目。令北京不能不產生負面聯想的是，在這兩國快速建軍的背 後都明顯有著俄羅斯的介入。

不用說，最讓中共警惕的就是美國的動作。前兩年，美國高調宣佈「重返亞太」；接著就開始擴建關島基地。剛剛宣佈與和澳大利亞加強合作，就傳出消息 後者同意出借軍事基地，並歡迎美軍進駐。

上個月，美國國防部長在香格里拉會議上宣佈調整在亞太海域的軍事部署，準備在數年內大量增加包括航空母艦在內的海軍戰艦。同時國際上還傳出風聲， 美國與菲律賓和越南正在磋商再度租借蘇比克灣或金蘭灣的可能性。

如果將以上所說的發展與這次「環太平洋」海軍演習聯繫起來看的話，相信任何人都會得到相同的結論，那就是：美國針對中共正在打造一個新的「海上扼 制圈」！

《環球時報》洩露國家機密

面對這種情勢，北京的恐懼可想而知；上述《環球時報》的這篇文章其實不自覺的洩了底。

〈中國已強大到在世界上顯得孤獨〉一文有幾點特別值得注意。第一，它說：「中國得習慣美國為我們刻意製造的一些『孤獨』場合，這是中國逐漸真走向 『世界第二』後的正常境遇，因為這是中國『崛起和強大的代價之一』」。在這段話中，中共有意迴避了兩個問題。首先為了淡化問題的本質(「海上扼制 圈」)，它有意的避開了敏感詞彙，文章改用「孤獨」來取代「被扼制」。其次，文章絕口不提美國與中共分歧的核心：民主與獨裁的對抗。

第二，《環球時報》指稱，「看上去宏大的環太平洋軍演，其實是美國的一個『小動作』，是美國因種種現實問題長期鬱鬱寡歡時給自己辦的一次大派 對。」這是標準的「吹口哨走夜路」。我們前面的分析指出，華盛頓近來的動作其實是這幾年來調整其亞太戰略的一個重要環節，而其鋒芒所向就是中共。 所以這不但不是一個「小動作」，也不是「長期鬱鬱寡歡時給自己辦的一次大派對」，而是一個「相當不小」的動作。

第三，文中呼籲，「中國遙望這個軍演，當然不會舒服，但這種不舒服應像要出門遊玩正好碰上下雨般不愉快一樣，很快會被忘卻，而不應長久影響我們的 心情。」又說：「中國得有對眼前處境一笑置之的戰略胸懷。」這些呼籲不是真話，真話出現在後面：「因為如果我們掉進去苦思冥想，就會覺得美國在引 導亞太形成一種地緣政治氛圍，它不僅壓迫中國，同時鼓舞了美國的盟友和與中國有摩擦的國家。我們會覺得這次軍演鞏固了美國的中心位置，映襯了中國 的『邊緣化』。」這幾句不但是真心話，而且是中南海內北京領導高層的最高機密。換句話說，《環球時報》洩露了國家機密！

中共的本事之一就是搞宣傳。毛澤東一再告誡他的黨徒們，宣傳一定要為黨的政治目標服務。中共的御用喉舌多年來都忠實奉行，所以在宣傳中不斷的造 假、抹黑、無中生有，其目的就是為了服務於政治目標，導致多年來，稍有頭腦的中國人都學會了「反過來解讀」中共說的話。這次也不例外，正當人們還 在狐疑美國為什麼這麼幹的時候，《環球時報》的文章給廣大的中國人民再次提供了一篇活生生的解讀，讓人們看清楚了北京真正的恐懼是什麼。

「超隱戰艦」將現亞太 美軍強勢威懾全球

美國2010年4月22日成功試飛X-37B太空飛機，在全球引起 轟動。

以往美蘇對峙的武器抗衡局勢，已轉變為中美互別苗頭的勢頭。為了對抗崛起的中國，美國不僅將戰略中心轉移到亞太地區，也不斷改變太空 計劃的核心發展，從各式新型反導彈防禦系統，到目前的威力驚人的空天飛機，不斷展現超級強國的威勢。


美軍一直是先進武器裝備的領跑者。隨著南中國海局勢日益緊張，美軍加快了向亞太戰略重心轉移的速度，到2020年，美軍將在亞太部署60%的航母 戰鬥群，預計新型研製的「超級隱形戰艦」也將部署亞太。此外，美國各類新式武器迄今沒有國家可以匹敵，威懾全球。

美國研製「超級隱形戰艦」

根據《美國海軍21世紀》日前報導，預計在2012年底下水、2014年交付使用的「超級隱形戰艦」──朱姆沃爾特級驅逐艦DDG-1000是下 一代多任 務驅逐艦，排水量1萬4500噸，能執行水下戰、反艦和遠程對艦攻擊任務。可用於攻擊陸地和沿海的目標，具有很強的防海和防空能力。

美國國會2005年通過建造的這個DDG-1000，目前龍骨已經鋪設超過60％，正在組裝整船，這個首艘DDG-1000驅逐艦是2009年開 始建造，2011年11月17日舉行了龍骨鋪設儀式。

據稱，這種「超級隱形」驅逐艦在敵方雷達上的大小頂多是一艘小漁船，它可以「悄無聲息」地進入敵方沿海淺海地區，並用其5倍音速的電磁大炮對敵方 岸上目標 發動攻擊。同時，又能從95英里外對一個目標同時發射6枚威力強大的導彈，而以往，美國海軍基本上會遠離危險的敵方沿海地區。

DDG-1000驅逐艦將採用先進艦炮系統（AGS）並裝備了強大的偵查系統，採用S波段和X波段的雙波段獨立雷達系統，提供真正多功能性能。它 還有自主 滅火系統（AFSS），即配備了先進的自動化損害-控制系統結合傳感器、照相機和自動滅火能力，以確保DDG-1000在發生危及生命和船舶事件 時，有最 快的回應時間。

它的垂直發射系統提高了DDG-1000的威力。先進的MK57垂直發射系統，可同時容納現有和未來的對陸攻擊、反艦、反潛和防空作戰導彈。其模 塊化的電子結構，使得DDG-1000驅逐艦在重新裝備每一個新導彈的時間更快，更經濟。

同時，DDG-1000驅逐艦還有強大的聲納系統、全自動化系統、整體電力系統 (IPS)、自動補給等功能，大大提高了DDG-1000的作戰能力。

DDG-1000兩年後或亮相亞太

美國海軍建造一艘DDG-1000驅逐艦，將需要超過30億美元的建設費。2010年，美國預算再建造二艘這樣的驅逐艦。

第二艘DDG-1001是從2010年開始建造，2012年開始鋪設龍骨，將於2013年完成，預計2015年交付海軍使用。第三艘DDG- 1002，將以第36任總統約翰遜命名，始建於2012年4月4日，2016年下水，預計在2018年交付海軍使用。

目前，美國海軍有包括巡洋艦、驅逐艦、護衛艦、登陸艦等各類艦艇285艘，由於美國今後將把焦點放在亞太區域，DDG-1000驅逐艦非常適合美 國的亞太戰略，預計2014年亮相亞太。

20倍音速戰機 1小時可飛遍全球

環球網7月11日報導，美軍正在試驗多款高超音速飛行器。目前美國比較有代表性的高超音速飛行器是波音公司的X-51「馭波者」無人飛行器，它在 2010 年試飛中成功以5倍音速以上的速度實現了200秒持續飛行，但沒能實現持續300秒的目標。X-51的發動機工作時間達到140秒，大大超過了 X-43高 超音速驗證機的12秒，但後者的速度更高，達到了9.8 倍音速，相當於每小時飛行1萬2144公里。

而以20倍音速飛行的飛行器，必須經受2000度以上的氣動加熱，這一溫度足以熔化鋼鐵，此外飛行器還要承受極高的壓力，為此必須開發出能承受高 溫和結構載荷的耐高溫材料。

美國希望 「一體化高超音速」計劃能解決現存的技術問題，在各項基本實驗結束之後，能夠在2016年試飛新型HX高超音速飛行器。HX被認為是一種可回收的 新一代高機動性、遠程高超音速飛行器，它採用附加火箭動力以降低風險。

美打造「昆蟲機器人部隊」

美軍最新公佈一種昆蟲大小的「大黃蜂無人機」，能夠實施有效偵察監控，還能飛入敵方建築物內。英國每日郵報報導，美國空軍公佈的昆蟲大小的偵察無 人機，稱它像「大黃蜂般大小」，無法被探測到，並且能夠飛入建築物內進行拍照，記錄，甚至對叛亂分子和恐怖分子進行武裝攻擊。

與此同時，還公佈最新設計的一種「致命微型無人機」，是以達芬奇的設計藍圖建造的撲翼飛行器，並聲稱它將於2015年部署。

美國賓夕法尼亞州大學GRASP實驗室近期還展示了一支納米直升機編隊，這是20架同步 飛行的納米直升機。這支納米直升機編隊的目標是使用生物模擬無人機 在儘可能少或者沒有人類監控下實現編隊飛行，並能在動態、資源有限的敵方環境中出現。然而，這種未來版難以探測的偵察無人機很可能將更加模擬自然 環境。

美國國防部高級研究計劃署（DARPA）長期從事研究納米仿生技術微型飛行器。2008年，該部門召開一次專題討論會，討論了「蟲子、機器人和生 化武 器」。目前，研究人員使用昆蟲的眼睛，蝙蝠的耳朵，鳥類的翅膀，甚至像蜜蜂一樣的毛髮，設計出生化無人機，用於探測生物、化學和核武器。

據悉，美國並不是唯一投入大量資金研製微型偵察無人機的國家，法國曾成功研製一種拍打翅膀的仿生微型無人機；2011年，荷蘭生物靈感微型人工智 能飛行器公司（BioMAV）研製了一種「鸚鵡AR」無人機，目前作為一種「飛行視頻遊戲」在美國使用。

「微波導彈」破壞電子設備

去年9月26日，美國福克斯新聞網披露了一種能破壞敵方電子設備的微波導彈。據稱，目前要讓對手的電子裝備失靈，要麼動用電子干擾飛機，要麼利用 核爆炸產生的電磁脈衝，但未來只需要發射一枚火箭就可以做到，這就是美國空軍研製的「微波導彈」。

據報導，微波武器主要利用大功率微波在電子元件內部產生的感應電流和熱效應使電子器件效能降低直至燒燬。報導強調，使用微波導彈讓對手的指揮失 靈，比用炸彈和導彈狂轟濫炸的方式高效得多，比用核爆炸產生電磁脈衝來摧毀敵方電子系統更安全。

隨後將進行的試驗則將驗證它的殺傷力：使用高能微波戰鬥部「燒燬」敵方最先進的防空、指揮和控制中心、戰鬥機和無人機的電子系統的能力。波音公司 項目主管 基斯‧科爾曼說：「這次試驗將空軍研究實驗室的定向能技術和波音公司的導彈設計融為一體，一種全新的非致命但是非常高效武器系統的研製就此邁出重要一 步。」

「禿鷹」太陽能動力無人機

美國《航空週刊》網站則披露另外一種未來新武器——能連續飛5年的太陽能飛機。報導稱， 美國海軍對國防先進研究計劃局的「禿鷹」太陽能動力長航時無人機產生濃厚興趣，並打算把它作為太空衛星失效時向航母攻擊群提供通信的重要手段。

報導稱， 「禿鷹」計劃的目標是發展一種能讓無人機在空中連續飛行5年的 技術。目前波音公司正在設計一種能在空中連飛30天的全比例驗證機，該機計劃於2014年第一季度首飛。據稱，「禿鷹」將在白天使用機翼、尾桁和尾翼上的 太陽能帆板收集能量，然後儲存在可重複使用的燃料電池中。等到夜間，燃料電池將為電力驅動系統提供電能，保證夜間飛行時無人機不會失去動力。

「獵鷹」 太空飛行器威懾全球

美國2 0 1 0 年4 月2 2 日成功試飛X-37B太空飛機，在全球引起轟動。它對外太空探索的貢獻與它可能成為新的太空武器的潛能，同時吸引著世界。此外美國還試驗了從太空以20倍 音速飛回地球的「獵鷹」飛行器，它一旦被掛上常規彈頭，世界任何一個角落都將處於它的威脅中。

美國的「全球 快速打擊」計劃本質上依然是強調常規精確打擊，而這一點是美國優勢最明顯的軍事 領域。如果美國的這一計劃實現，其他國家將缺乏能夠制衡它的手段，全球現有的戰略平衡將被打破。

中國空軍專家王明志認為， 以俄羅斯為例，現有的核平衡是：如果美國發射核導彈，俄羅斯能用核導彈回擊；但如果美國利用空天技術發動常規精確打擊，依俄羅斯現有技術，在不使用核力量 的情況下，既無法防禦，也無法反擊。因此這種技術優勢導致的不平衡只會提升美國使用這種新武器的決心和意願。

德國《C6雜誌》曾以 「太空與軍事：中國對抗美國：新的星球大戰」為題報導說，美國以前的計劃是在冷戰背景下對抗蘇聯。現在，他們的目的是對抗崛起的太空強國中國。文章說，美 國自1983年裡根總統以來，不斷改變太空計劃，從星球大戰到反導彈 防禦系統，到目前的空天飛機，就像電影《星球大戰》的「現實版」。

 为什么喻丹让外国记者爆发出巨大 掌声？

国家体育总局副局长於再清猛烈批评：「说孝敬父 母、感谢父母都对，心里面也要有国家，要把国家放在前面！」

夺得伦敦奥运女子10公尺气步鎗铜牌的中国选手喻丹，在赛后发言时没像其他中国运动员只「感谢国家、感谢领导」，备受中国民间讚誉。

综合报导，来自四川的喻丹现年25岁，当地时间週六与夺得伦敦奥运第一金的战友易思玲，一同站上颁奖台。在赛后记者会上，易思玲成为大家的焦 点，喻丹则大部分时间都两眼放空，漠然望向远方。突然，一名英国女记者问道：「喻丹，能说说你获得铜牌后的心情吗？」

面对这普通问题，喻丹显得十分激动，她说最想感谢父母时，开始哽咽，隨后更站起来鞠躬， 续说：「爸爸妈妈，我想谢谢你们！你们真的很不容易……」此时，喻丹已经泣不成声。

喻丹的发言让现场爆发巨大掌声，提问的记者更眼眶泛红。其后有记者问她目前最想做什么，她也直言：「我想一会儿抽空给父母打个电 话！」

但中国媒体对喻丹的报导篇幅很少，更有中国媒体將喻丹泪洒记者会，解读为「压力释放」， 或称喻丹是想起在爭取奥运资格时不幸去世的祖父。

忘谢国家会遭谴责

喻丹在奥运记者会上感谢父母的言行，让不少网民讚扬她的表现比取得奥运金牌更好、能让父母感到骄傲。但也有网民担心，这次很可能影响 她的前途。

此外，喻丹週日凌晨在新浪微博上留言说：「对不起，我尽力了。」这短短的留言在90分內被转载逾万次，但至中午不单 留言被刪，甚至连喻丹的账號都被刪除。有网民质疑喻丹被封杀，也有网民声称是新浪冒喻丹之名留言。

中国运动员得奖后的感言往往是千篇一律：感谢国家、领导。「伦敦奥运第一金」易思玲在微博上夺冠感言就是標准的：「感谢祖国人民对我的支 持。」

在2010年冬季奥运会，中国选手周洋取得1500公尺短道速滑金牌后，没有感谢国家、官员，旋即引来国家体育总局副局长於再清猛烈批评：「说孝敬父母、感谢父母都对，心里面也 要有国家，要把国家放在前面！」

另一方面，今年伦敦奥运举重比赛冠军热门的中国选手吴景彪，在週日的比赛中败给朝鲜选手欧云哲屈居亚军。

他在赛后接受记者採访时，情绪激动，「我有愧於祖国，我有愧於中国举重队，有愧於所有关心我的人。对不起大家！」又对著摄像机连鞠3个躬，並 发出怒吼。

 　　因为拿的不是金牌，喻丹几乎没受到什么关注。但在场外，则出现了一个经由某网站微博认证的叫“射击-喻丹”的微博用户发了一则“道歉声 明”：“对不起，我尽力了。”这时候，中国的很多网友显示出他们的大度，“不要这么说”；“不需要道歉，你击败了一大批高手，你是世界第 三”；“该说对不起的，是你我他，我们忽略了季军的感受”等等，并转发到了1万多条。
　　不过，事后证明喻丹是“被道歉”了。“我一直以来都用另一个网站的微博，希望大家在这里关注我。我是喻丹，感谢朋友们对我的关心和鼓励， 我会一直都做快乐的自己。”昨天，喻丹不得不在自己本人使用的微博发了“澄清声明”。
　　没拿到金牌，也遭受着“被道歉”，但川妹子体现了自己的乐观和孝顺。在接到唯一的一个问题时，她说“我最想感 谢我的父母……”只说了一句，喻丹忽然哽咽了起来。随后她站起身，恭恭敬敬地鞠了一躬，“爸爸妈妈，我想谢谢你们！你们很不容 易……”说到这里，喻丹已经泣不成声。因为，喻丹的父母在1996年双双下岗，为了支持她练射击，付出了巨大的心血。喻丹的发言 让在场中国记者自发鼓掌，翻译把喻丹的话重复了一遍，顿时现场的外国记者也爆发出巨大掌声。这时，提问的那位英国女记者眼眶也红 了。

百姓 / 当权者的奥运

全球讚嘆英伦亲民风格

（伦敦29日讯）4年前，北京奥运开幕礼以盛大的场面呈现中国灿烂文明与辉煌时代，充满强国炫富的精神；4年后，伦敦奥运开幕礼虽没那么壮 观，但在英国金像大导丹尼鲍尔精心策划下，尽显英国丰盛人文精神和幽默满泻神的特质，获激讚！

有传媒形容是「现代奥运史上最精彩表演」，有强国网民则说：

「伦敦展现的是百姓的奥运，北京则是当权者的奥运。」

当年北京开幕礼耗资3亿美元（9亿4800万令吉），出动近两万名表演者，利用科技与现代声光效果，呈现壮观演出和烟花表演，最后体操王子李 寧以「夸父追日」点燃主火炬，堪称规模最宏大奥运开幕礼。

伦敦此次办奥运，適逢英国经济陷入双底衰退，开幕礼耗资2700万英镑（1亿3446万 令吉），仅是京奥1/8。

丰富人文精神

但伦敦奥运奥组委找来丹尼鲍尔任导演可谓深庆得人，曾执导《贫民百万富翁》等名作的他，作品风格向来大胆创新、幽默跳脱，这次开幕礼尽显功 架。

在英国应届环法单车赛冠军维金斯敲响奥运钟后，开幕礼立即开始，由农业社会精神，说到工业革命变天，再有魔法书《哈利波特》作家罗琳朗读故事 伏地魔出场、管弦乐演奏、英国人最擅长的街舞……尽展英国丰盛的人文精神。

期间又不忘英式幽默：英女王以86岁之龄，处女演出跟占士邦斗演技；英国国宝级笑匠「戇豆先生」出场笑破观眾肚皮。玩转开幕礼， 展现的正是伦敦百无禁忌、无穷创意的精神。

丹尼鲍尔表明，开幕礼规模无法跟北京奥运比擬，惟以不同方式展示英国特色。英奥组委主席 大讚他创意无限；英国运动员、名人和市民在网上留言，为英国感骄傲，《泰晤士报》甚至称讚是「全球最伟大表演」。

外国传媒也力讚，澳洲传媒指「这可能是现代奥运史上最惊人一刻」。美国《纽约时报》指，开幕礼显示英国「保留了后大英帝国的风采」。 美国《洛杉磯时报》指「开幕礼幽默与派对气氛胜过华丽排场」。

「百姓的奥运」

中国有网民留言指，「伦敦展现的是百姓的奥运，北京则是当权者的奥运」；伦敦 奥运「不是用钱砸出来的排场，不是用人海堆出来的震撼」，「而是用歷史进程来表现这个国家的成熟」；伦敦「讲故事的方式，对个体 的尊重，幽默的元素……都于于北京数筹」；伦敦奥运「展示引以为傲的文化，一首能让各种肤色的人同场高唱的歌曲就已足够了！」这 首歌就是「披头四」前成员保罗麦卡尼压轴献唱的《Hey Jude》。

400人抗议优待有钱人

伦敦有大约400人在周六示威，抗议伦敦奥运优待有钱人，又不满当局以確保奥运顺利举行为理由，在多座住宅大厦的屋顶部署防空导弹。

发起游行的团体表示，当局將200万张奥运门票，免费给与赞助商等有钱人，又封闭部分道路供奥运嘉宾专用，是不能接受。

另据中央社报导，伦敦奥运一票难求，首日却出现部分场馆观眾席空空如也的难堪场面，不得其门而入的民眾破口大骂。

一名男子接受英国广播公司（BBC）电视台访问时愤怒说：「不公平，早上好几千人想进去游泳馆看比赛进不去。我们进都进不去，可是出来的人告 诉我们一半座位是空的。」羽球赛事场地温布利体育馆有一区完全没人坐，马术比赛的竞技场格林威治公园好几排空著，排球赛场伯爵宫状况也差不 多。

伦敦奥运筹备会表示会调查座席没满的原因，主席科保证揪出拿票却不找人去看的赞助商，还会公布公司名称。

纪念品难买　正版贵山寨俗

伦敦奥运开幕第一天，许多游客热情洋溢，但超高物价让他们的钱包大失血，纪念品贵得嚇人，让观光客手软。此外，掏钱付账前，別忘了再三確认， 以免买到山寨奥运T恤。

台湾中央社报导，来自伯明翰的戈利在奥运体育场附近的纪念品店閒晃时，惊讶发现「一件T恤要25英镑（124.5令吉）」。戈利说：「他们在 超市里卖的东西便宜多了。」

吉祥物文洛克和曼德维尔玩偶要价15英镑（74.7令吉），地主「英国队」背包定价37英镑（184.26令吉）。英国队平板电脑保护套则相 对便宜只要12英镑（59.76令吉）。

特地从美国俄亥俄州前往朝圣的惠伦表示，她原本考虑购买开幕式门票，但最后一分钟抢购票价让她倒退三步。

惠伦说：「当时只剩下1800英镑（8964令吉）或2300英镑（1万1454令吉）的票，这当然超出我的预算。」

除了价钱让人不下了手，想带纪念品回家，还要当心「未来版」奥运T恤。当局为奥运周边商品定下严格规范，但上有政策下有对策。

伦敦西南区的男性服饰店推出5方形T恤，取代奥运彩色5环，上头印的Lodnon 2102 Oimplycs字样不仅故意拼错字，还把年份从2012改写成2102。

奥运委员会將如何因应还有待观察，但一些商家已经触犯奥运商標规范，奥运主办单位可能对他们提告。

其中一家商店的老板娘克罗斯说：「我不知道自己触犯任何规范。我只是想支持英国队和奥运。」

China's "Leftover Women"

China’s 'leftover women’ are considered on the shelf if they're still single at 28

In case you hadn’t noticed, Chinese women have become quite a force to be reckoned with in recent years. According to Forbes magazine, 11 of the 20 richest self-made women in the world are Chinese, and now 19 per cent of Chinese women in management positions are CEOs, the second highest percentage worldwide (after Thailand’s 30 per cent).

In fact, so undeniable is the rise of women in China that there is even a phrase for their sudden blossoming: yin sheng, yang shuai, which means the female (yin) is on the up, while the male (yang) is on the way down. But there’s one thing that’s holding them back – and even making them ditch their careers altogether – and that’s the fear of being single.

Unfortunately for China’s women their new-found confidence has incited a backlash from men, the government and even their own families. The popular Chinese label shengnu (leftover women), regularly perpetuated in state-controlled media and on internet message boards, refers to women who are smart, successful and moneyed but still not married by the age of 28. That’s right: in China, if you're 30, female and single, you’re considered well and truly on the shelf.

'I always dread Chinese New Year,’ says Yang Ziyang, a 32-year-old talent agent earning in excess of one million RMB (£100,000) a year, 'because that’s when my extended family come over to the house and they all want to know why I’m not married yet. I tell them it’s because I have standards that I’m not willing to lower.’

Touching an expensive-looking bangle on her wrist, she goes on, 'I think my parents understand a bit more – they just want me to be happy – but my aunties always say things like, “Oh, do you remember that girl you went to school with? She got married last year and now she’s pregnant!” It's very frustrating.’

Wu Manling, 30 and a magazine editor, agrees. 'My mother tried to have a serious talk about me being “leftover” a while ago. I told her that I wasn’t going to rush into marrying just anyone, that my happiness doesn’t only come from my relationships but from my work. I have my own value and can make my own social connections. But I know they’re just worried,’ she says, hinting at the other big issue at play. 'Because I’m an only child it’s harder, as they are relying a lot on me.’

Women born under China’s one-child policy, introduced in 1979, face enormous pressures to succeed academically from parents whose own aspirations were thwarted under the Mao regime.

Meanwhile, their grandparents – many of whom can still remember mass famine – are piling on the expectations, too. They are keen not only to see their granddaughters marry well (traditionally the only route to financial security) but also, mindful that the country has no social safety net, to have a large family to look after them in old age.

'The Chinese family is getting smaller and smaller and so the pressure on young women today is huge,’ says the social historian Simon Gjeroe. 'There’s a very large older population in China that by sheer weight of numbers is winning the pressure war. If women don’t get married and have a child then in the eyes of their more conservative parents and grandparents they haven’t achieved harmony and they’ve failed.’

It doesn’t help that educated young women are barely given a chance to find a husband until it’s supposedly too late. 'While you’re at university your parents constantly discourage you from having relationships; they tell you to focus on your studies,’ continues Wu Manling.

'Then, when you finally graduate at the age of 25, you’re suddenly expected to know how to find a rich boyfriend who has a car and a house. But by then you only have two or three years before you’re branded a shengnu. If you don’t manage it within that small window of time they worry and fuss. It’s ridiculous.’

'There’s no question that a lot of women rush into marriage with the wrong person,’ says Leta Hong Fincher, a doctoral candidate in sociology at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Her research suggests that it’s the constant pestering from families that is causing successful women in their late twenties to make major sacrifices.

'At that point in their lives a lot of women who are highly educated, attractive and successful will start to really worry about getting married. I’ve met women who actually quit their jobs because they thought they’d find it easier to attract a husband, which is very frightening. Those who didn’t give up work entirely were turning down promotions.’

The author and social commentator Zhang Lijia knows exactly what she thinks about the term shengnu. '[It’s] extremely insulting! It’s a ridiculous term! There are many countries where men don’t like strong women,’ she points out, 'but Chinese men particularly so. If a Chinese man is successful he will be looking for a woman who is young and beautiful, not someone who is well educated.’ She pauses before laughing heartily. 'Chinese men think educated women aren’t as easy to control!’

She may have a point. Internet chatter about shengnu came to a head last March when a young woman called Long Si Yu and 15 of her friends posted an online music video admonishing men for not having their own house or car.

There are currently 118 men to every 100 women in China – that’s an excess of more than 30 million. But Yu was arguing that the actual reason Chinese men can’t find girlfriends is their laziness, and the fact that they are looking for a breed of subservient woman that no longer exists.

'If you don’t have a car and you don’t have a house, please move aside don’t block my way,’ chimes one girl in the video. 'I also have a car, I also have a house, and [money] in the bank. So if you’re not as capable as I am, don’t depend on me. I am not your mother,’ says another.

Within 48 hours of posting their video on Youku – China’s version of YouTube – their song had been viewed 1.5 million times, and garnered tens of thousands of negative comments. 'What kind of women are these?’ read one typical male rant. 'I say women in the old days were better.’

'We were just having fun,’ claims Yu, 24, when asked why she made the video. 'Men have always asked so much of us. We want them to know that we have standards now, too.’

This is something that Gong Haiyan, the female founder of the country’s biggest dating website, knows only too well. In 2003 Gong was 27, single and dissatisfied with the online dating services available at the time.

Taking matters into her own hands, she set up the matchmaking site Jiayuan ('Beautiful Destiny’) to help women like her, and within three months had met her husband via the site. With more than 58 million registered users, the site has given her a clear picture of what constitutes 'the ideal woman’ in the eyes of a Chinese male.

'The most popular woman is the traditional, angelic type,’ she says. A faint smile crosses her lips as she admits that many search for women with 'large breasts and slim figures’, adding, 'The most common profession searches are for girls who are teachers or nurses, as men think those women will be able to educate and care for their children well.’

By contrast, says Gong, women’s requirements are multiplying all the time, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. 'The key things women search for on our site are a man’s height, salary and whether or not he owns a car or a house. Certainly, if women’s requirements were lower we would have a higher match-success rate. It’s very hard to satisfy women in China these days.

'In Beijing, only 12 per cent of men using the site own their own house, so almost all the women on the website are trying to choose from this 12 per cent. That makes it very difficult.’

So are Chinese women showing a worryingly shallow attitude towards love? Zhang Lijia says that it’s not that simple. 'China’s rapid economic reform has certainly brought lots of opportunities,’ she explains. 'But the income gap between men and women has increased as a result of that reform. It’s no wonder that women want to marry a rich man when so many resources are still not equally available to them.’

Recent changes to home-ownership laws have put women at an even greater disadvantage. When couples divorce, the marital property now belongs solely to whomever took out the mortgage. In China, this is almost always the husband or the husband’s parents. This means that even if a woman makes substantial contributions towards the purchase of a house and its mortgage she could be left with nothing on divorcing.

Hong Fincher suggests that this may be what is stirring many women, especially in the cities, to action. 'It has always been the tradition that a son’s parents help him buy a house when he marries. In many instances parents will hand over their life savings to their son because they see it as crucial to buy him a home – but the parents are not doing that for their daughters.

'Women previously thought they had to have a man to take care of them, but I’ve found that many no longer think that way. Because of the change in the law they know that if they do marry a man with a house it doesn’t benefit them, so there’s a growing trend of young women trying to make it on their own.’

Jennie Kang, 25, an assistant marketing director for an American fast-food chain, says this is exactly why she won’t compromise on finding a husband who appreciates her for who she is. Smart, eloquent and striking, she says she can’t see herself being a housewife, like her mother’s generation. 'I still want to develop my own career, fulfil my own destiny. The truth is, I’d be bored and feel insecure if I wasn’t economically independent.’

Asked if she thinks her high standards have become a barrier to her happiness, Yang Ziyang explains, 'Some of my friends tease me about my requirements being too high, but I want equality from a marriage and it’s hard to find Chinese men who offer that. I’ve been at work all day, too, so why should I do the washing-up, the cooking and look after the baby as well?’

KCPO - The Bears Gaining Strength ? -7/30/2012

Last week's suggestion of "allying yourself with the bears is of more prudence" turned out to be rewarding. Price went below the lower band and triggered another sell, but again the trade turned out to another short lived one. Price went above prior day high on last Wednesday and effectively took out the trade. If you had managed to stay on the shorts trade, then using prior day high plus some would be a prudent way to manage the trade from here on.

The Stochastic has gone into the oversold area and looks like it is hooking up. The MACD remains negative and the ADX has been rising and it is now above the 20's. So I would suggest you should also pay more attention to the MACD over the Stochastic. In order to buy , I would want to see price crossing above the lower band with the Stochastic crossing above the bottom band.

 

The weekly chart's initial bull has failed to sustain as price closed below the lower band again. The MACD has turned downward again while the Stochastic remains positive but has sopped rising. Prior support of 2838 is vital. Though the ADX remains flat but I am alerted about the out expanding D- as this may be an initial show of strength for the bears.

 As the month is coming to a close by the coming week, where price closes eventually on the last trading day would be crucial. And if price is unable to go back up above 3,000, then it would trigger a long term sell signal at the monthly chart. The support of 2838 is important and if it is broken , we could see the emergence of a vicious bears.

FKLI - The Bulls Running Out Of Ammunition ? - 7/30/2012

I sold the market when price went below the upper band with the Stochastic turning negative on last Monday. The MACD followed on the next day and went negative. The ADX has begun to fall which is indicating the end of the prior upmove cycle. But you should take note that it is fast dropping towards the 20's signal line. This may be also indicating that the market may be moving into another listless mode.

Place stop at band top or prior day high plus 2 points.


 
The weekly chart's Stochastic has already done a negative crossing down. This is worrisome for the bulls. As the ADX is still below its 20's area, the Stochastic matters more than the MACD. The coming week should be crucial as I am watching out for the Stochastic to cross down its 80's line and price to go below the upper band. If both these 2 conditions are met, then it would be a new sell signal for the weekly chart. And if prices are to deteriorated from here, the MACD should form a new bearish divergence from there. This will really be a bad omen for the bulls. The ADX has turned flat again, this is indicating the prior trend has stalled and may also mean that the market is going listless again.

Judging from various top BN politicians are saying these days, I often feel that they are getting humble (where formerly they always threatened) and almost like begging the people to give them "another 5 years" to serve (首相拿督斯里納吉說，國陣政府在過去3年已兌現了許多承諾，若民眾給予國陣政府多5年的時間) Am I  smelling  fears from impending change of government ? The charts are not confirming yet, but let's see.I sold the market when price went below the upper band with the Stochastic turning negative on last Monday. The MACD followed on the next day and went negative. The ADX has begun to fall which is indicating the end of the prior upmove cycle. But you should take note that it is fast dropping towards the 20's signal line. This may be also indicating that the market may be moving into another listless mode.

Place stop at band top or prior day high plus 2 points.

The weekly chart's Stochastic has already done a negative crossing down. This is worrisome for the bulls. As the ADX is still below its 20's area, the Stochastic matters more than the MACD. The coming week should be crucial as I am watching out for the Stochastic to cross down its 80's line and price to go below the upper band. If both these 2 conditions are met, then it would be a new sell signal for the weekly chart. And if prices are to deteriorated from here, the MACD should form a new bearish divergence from there. This will really be a bad omen for the bulls. The ADX has turned flat again, this is indicating the prior trend has stalled and may also mean that the market is going listless again.

Judging from various top BN politicians are saying these days, I often feel that they are getting humble (where formerly they always threatened) and almost like begging the people to give them "another 5 years" to serve (首相拿督斯里納吉說，國陣政府在過去3年已兌現了許多承諾，若民眾給予國陣政府多5年的時間) Am I  smelling  fears from impending change of government ? The charts are not confirming yet, but let's see.

谢国忠：手上有空房子 的要赶快卖掉

　

7月29日上午，独立经济学家谢国忠在厦门大学EMBA鼓浪屿名家论坛上发表“当前国内经济前景与展望”主题演讲，在论坛上，谢国忠就当前全国经 济走势以及国际经济发展走向做出全面剖析，当谈到房地产领域时，谢国忠抛出“千万别买房子，有空房子赶快卖掉”的观点。

谢国忠指出，中国人普遍存在侥幸心理，以前炒股市，现在炒房地产，相信房地产会报复性的涨价，增值空间大。

但是，“房子千万别买，手上有空房子赶快卖掉。”目前市场形势有点转变，可以赶快出手卖掉。如果以房价与收入比算的话，中国的房价在全世界是最高 的，香港的房价也高，但是房价收入比是15倍，而发达国家只有6倍，但是中国的北京、上海最高已经达到二三十倍。

另一方面，谢国忠认为中国目前的存量房都不止180亿平方米，现在在造的有38亿平方米，开发商手里的地可以再造30亿平方米以上，地方政府上的 地还不少，加起来还有100亿平方米。

买房子的话考虑两个方面，第一是租的出去的房子才考虑，第二个房租回报率才考虑。中国没有那么多人，人口下降，那么房地产一去不复返，房价永远是 下降的，2020年已经不远了，2015年中国社会将进入老龄化阶段，到2020年人口将会下降，现在没有必要去买房子冒险，不要做发财的梦，现 在把房子卖了一辈子开心。

《世界奇妙物語 ‧ 23分鐘的奇跡》

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE3pvls26q0&feature=player_embedded


近日有關國民教育的爭議，包括政府官員、建制支持者在內，均認為反對者是危言聳聽，但，偉 大祖國歷史中，已有太多例子證明，所謂愛國教育，實際，只是當權者控制人民思想方法。

A傳來一條近日在網上流傳的日劇短片，《世界奇妙物語 ‧ 23分鐘的奇跡》，那，完全是反國民教育的「宣傳片」。A說，日本在二戰時，也曾以洗腦教育方式，向學生及國民貫輸軍國主義思想，最終，只會禍國怏民，難 道，我們又要犯相同錯誤？

欧盟查获假货四分之三来自中国

欧盟本周发布的一份报告显示，在去年欧盟各成员国海关查获的价值13亿欧元的假冒仿制产品中，近四分之三来自中国。

2011年查获的1.15亿件假冒产品较上年增长15%，过去10年里增加了十倍。欧盟委员会(European Commission)发言人乔纳森•托德(Jonathan Todd)将假货规模猛增的原因归因于电子商务的爆炸式发展。他指出，去年绝大部分假冒产品是在邮局查获的，而非像以往那样主要在港口查获。

托德补充称，假货规模快速增长对欧盟消费者构成危险，因为很多假冒产品——包括药品和化妆品——可能含有有害的化学物质。他指出，消费者往往 不知道所购产品为假冒仿制。

托德表示：“欧盟将继续与各成员国以及国际伙伴密切合作，以维护守法企业的利益，并保护公民安全。”

欧盟委员会的这份年度研究报告篇幅达31页。报告指出，欧盟去年查获的假冒产品中有73%来自中国内地，另有7.7%来自中国香港。其他主要 假货产地所占份额——希腊为4.8%，印度为3.3%——远远低于中国。

中国驻欧盟代表未回应记者的置评请求。

报告称，欧盟海关查获的假冒产品中，药品占近四分之一，份额紧随其后的是包装材料和香烟。查获药品绝大多数为“生活方式类药物”，例如减肥药 和万艾可(Viagra)；但止痛药、抗抑郁药以及抗生素也有发现。

托德拒绝评论中国对报告做出的反应。但他表示，欧盟高级官员在与中方的双边会谈中经常提到假冒侵权问题。

意 淫釣魚台

最近，中國和日本又因為釣魚台而吵起架來。電視說到了，陳師奶皺著眉，一臉煩厭：「就一個島嘛，有甚麼大不了？」旁邊的中年阿叔拉低他面前的 報紙，馬上指正：「妳知道釣魚台下面有多少天然資源嗎？那是戰略要點啊﹗啍﹗女人就是女人﹗甚麼都不懂‥‥‥」

對於釣魚台附近海域有多少天然資源，時常被高級知識分子譏笑的維基百科是這樣說的：

    「按照日本前國土交通大臣扇千景的說法，這些海域中埋藏着足夠日本消耗320年的錳、1300年的鈷、100年的鎳、100年的天然氣，以及其他礦物資源 和漁業資源，日本了解，獲得這些海域，將使日本由資源小國而成為東亞的資源大國。至於東海的油氣儲量大約77億噸，亦足日本使用近百 年。」——釣魚台列嶼 – 維基百科，自由的百科全書

釣魚台是不是中國的？這是一個偽議題。因為釣魚台怎樣都不是中國的。中共是頭，中國是尾。任何利益，都只會走進領導人親屬的口袋，而不是國民 的手中。好像李鵬家族壟斷了全中國的電力市場、胡錦濤兒子可以開一間公司然後承接政府的商業訂單、溫家寶的夫人同時是珠寶界的大君……不只最 高領導人，連人大代表也個個身家億萬。據彭博新聞社2月27日的報導，中國70位最富裕的全國人大代表去年的檯面財富淨值，就接近900億美 元，是美國政府660名高官財富總和的12倍。

上一輩的香港人，做生意是靠頭腦靈活；太子黨做生意，是靠家中有阿爺。朝中有人，在商界就好辦事。你阿爸是胡錦濤，同道連爭都不敢跟你爭。在 商界，中共的介入尚且如且。戰略資源，就更加要留給「國營企業」。有著數，當然要益自己人。

把握土地、天然氣、石油、稀土等資源的公司，都由中共關係人握得緊緊的。資源在手，萬方來朝，方便賣國，鈔票源源不絕。爭得釣魚台，肥的是太 子黨。

釣魚台就像照片中的寫真女郎，是拿來給民族主義憤青意淫的；那些真正豐乳肥臀的女郎都在太子們的床上。屁民階層連當汁男優的資格都沒有，那你 們還吵甚麼？



中國人覺得要爭那塊小小的釣魚台，一臉義憤，都有一個「日本仔侵佔中國國土」的想像。他們這邊叫罵「小日本」，那邊卻又可以容忍這個不停 出賣國土的中共政權。打下了江山，更加方便賣國自肥。中國「地大脈博」，所以歷代領導人對外國都很「慷概」。偉大的黨早就將薪島和半個長 白山送給了北韓的金家，到了江澤民，更乾脆簽約將東北地區被俄國強佔的大片土地（江東六十四屯）送給俄國。其餘「小眉小眼」的領土割讓， 你自己翻歷史書。

釣魚台， 中共說可以「共同開發」；南沙群島，中共大喊「堅持主權」，然而中國連派去南沙群島的軍船也會擱淺，提供了一個很好的國際笑話。

中共的存在從來是為了自肥，甚麼國土、甚麼民族尊嚴，都是待價而沾。好像民主黨，價錢對了，就提著屁股拿去中聯辦賣掉。台灣的保釣船還會掛五 星紅旗，想「勸進」對岸，叫他們承擔一些保釣的責任。但是神女有心，襄王無夢。中共如今肥得漏油，怎敢跟你們玩？九洲滿泡沫，領導們現在都忙 著籌謀自己和家族的後路。中共以前是缸瓦，今天是瓷器，不堪打的。

你問我釣魚台是不是中國的？這是一個偽議題。再多讀點歷史，這條問題聽起來更像是一個爛gag。

KCPO - It Is A Dead Market - 7/23/2012

 
Last Monday price gapped up and tested the top band, but I did not do anything as the Stochastic did not confirm the move. Instead I sold again when price went below Monday's low. This trade was short-lived as I closed it on Thursday when price went back above the bottom band. A scalping trade no doubt but one still make approximately 80 points.

Again I did not do any new long trade because though price went back above the bottom band but the Stochastic has failed to confirm. Please pay attention to the ADX which is now below 20's which is a classic confirmation that this market has gone side way. The seemingly wiggling DMI also adding weight to this view. So I would suggest that you stay out of the market for a while before a new trend emerges. Since the MACD and Stochastic have gone negative, I would suggest allying yourself with the bears will be of more prudence.

 

The weekly chart remains same as last week as the initial bull is still at the loss of what next to do. The Stochastic is positive and  rising but MACD is negative and falling. The ADX stays flat at below 20's. All these 3 are pointing to a listless market.

The fact that KCPO failed to rally upward even though most of the grains markets in US have been shooting up due to the drought
seems to pointing to a possible collapse in this market. The 3,000 level remains the vital support, and if price fails to hold above this level by the end of the month will probably indicate the return of the bears to take a grip hold on this market.

FKLI - A Correction Across The Horizon ? - 7/23/2012

 

I went back in and bought as price went above 1630 on last Monday and came out on Friday when price went below prior day's low. I did not do any new trade as price is still above the top band and all the indicators stay positive. I would re-engage new long if  price goes above 1652 and yes, again will keep my stop tight. I take note that the Stochastic has formed a minor bearish divergence. So be cautious of a short term weakness.

As long as the ADX keeps rising, the current trend will stay intact.

 
The weekly chart remains bullish as all the indicators stay positive and continue to rise. Price stays above the top band and reach for new high, but the MACD has not able to erase off the bearish divergence. Of course this is something that I am keeping an eye on. The ADX also continues to rise though it is still below the 20's level. When the ADX is low, my attention is on the Stochastic and as it has already entered into the overbought zone, so I would be cautious on a correction soon.

Meanwhile, last weekend attention went back to Spain and Italy as new worries re-emerges.

From Russia With Love? China vs. India Carrier Showdown

Indian Carrier

There’s a pronounced aerial component to Asia’s march to the seas.
The Indian Navy’s newest aircraft carrier, the soon-to-be-commissioned INS Vikramaditya, recently took to the Barents Sea for its second shakedown cruise. After putting the ship through its paces, the Russian shipyard Sevmash will reportedly deliver it to the Indian Navy at year’s end—culminating a prolonged, painful, sometimes comical overhaul process that converted the Soviet “aircraft-carrying cruiser” Admiral Gorshkov into a more conventional flattop featuring a ski jump for vaulting short-takeoff warplanes into the skies.
Meanwhile, China’s first carrier, the Soviet-built vessel formerly known as Varyag, is underway for its longest sea trials since first casting off lines last summer. It will reportedly cruise the Bohai Sea for 25 days. Whether New Delhi and Beijing intend to build blue-water fleets around carrier task forces is no longer in question. They do, and they are.
China Carrier

Which aspiring sea power has the advantage in carrier aviation, China or India?
Tough to say.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) probably gets the nod from a purely material standpoint, whereas the Indian Navy holds the edge in the all-important human dimension.
One caveat. I’ve come to doubt how meaningful side-by-side comparisons of armaments are when abstracted from their larger political, strategic, and geographic context. They have an unearthly feel. Battle is the arbiter of which force is superior. Myriad factors like geographic distance, logistics, the number and capability of escort ships, and the availability and striking power of shore-based fire support shape tactical engagements. Indeed, they can decide the outcome.
Think about it. If the two fleets met in the China seas, Chinese commanders would bring not just the PLA Navy surface fleet but short-range submarines, aircraft flying from airfields ashore, and land-based anti-ship missiles to bear—massing far more firepower than the fleet alone could manage. The pattern would reverse itself if a clash took place in the Bay of Bengal. Indian commanders could hurl additional assets into the fray, taking advantage of short distances to the theater and nearby manpower, land-based platforms, and bases.
It cannot be repeated too many times: sea power is more than the navy. It’s hard to isolate and measure two navies’ relative combat power short of assigning them a set of coordinates far from either belligerent’s shores—how about the Weddell Sea, adjacent to Antarctica, or the South Atlantic?—and instructing them to meet there to fight it out. That would come close to excluding all external variables. In other words, it’s hard to run a controlled experiment to gauge naval power.
All of that being said, it’s worth examining each platform to see what it may bring to a sea fight. The Vikramaditya/Gorshkov displaces about 45,000 tons fully loaded—that is, including the air wing, the crew, fuel, stores, and everything else a man-of-war needs to ply the briny deep. For comparison’s sake, that’s a tad bigger than a US Navy Essex-class fleet carrier of World War II vintage. It approximates the dimensions of today’s big-deck U.S. Navy amphibious assault ships (LHA or LHD).
The Varyag, on the other hand, weighs in at a bit over 67,000 tons fully loaded. That’s roughly the size of the modernized USS Midway, the retired supercarrier that now adorns the San Diego waterfront as a museum ship. Size matters. With bigger hulls comes greater hangar and flight-deck space, and thus the capacity to accommodate a larger, more diverse air wing.
And to be sure, the Varyag will reportedly carry about 26 fixed-wing combat aircraft—the official People’s Daily speculated that J-15s will operate from its deck for the first time during the ongoing shakedown—and about 24 helicopters. (I hem-and-haw on the exact figures because an air wing’s composition is not fixed. The U.S. Navy has experimented with various configurations over the years.) The Vikramaditya/Gorshkov’s complement is a more modest 16 tactical aircraft—Mig-29Ks were part of the package deal for the ship—and 10 helicopters. The Chinese carrier’s fighter/attack force, then, is over half-again as large as its Indian counterpart’s. Quantity isn’t everything, but it is important in air-to-air combat. Advantage: China.
It’s worth pointing out, however, that both ships are modest in capability relative to their nuclear-powered U.S. Navy brethren, each of which displaces over 100,000 tons and can carry an air wing numbering some 90 fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft—nearly double the complement for the Varyag. It’s also worth recalling that both ships are Soviet relics, and that the Soviet Navy never quite got carrier aviation right. Whether Russian or Chinese shipwrights have managed to correct any lingering design defects remains to be seen. Whatever the case, it’s fair to say that Beijing and New Delhi are fielding what some wags term “starter carriers” in the Varyag and Vikramaditya. Both navies are pursuing indigenously built carriers for their future fleets.
My guess is that the Indian Navy commands a significant advantage over the PLA Navy in the domains of airmanship and seamanship. As the late U.S. Air Force colonel John Boyd liked to quip, machines don’t fight wars; people, ideas, and hardware—in that order!—are the determinants of competitive enterprises. There is a reason we call it a trial of arms. Many outcomes are possible when human wills interact.
Indians seem to excel at air power. U.S. Air Force pilots who face off against their Indian counterparts in mock combat rave about the skills and panache of Indian airmen. And while the Vikramaditya is a new class of flattop and the MiG-29K a new aircraft for the Indian Navy, carrier operations are nothing new for the navy. The service has operated at least one flattop for over half a century. For example, INS Viraat, a Centaur­-class vessel built for Britain’s Royal Navy, has served in the Indian fleet for a quarter-century. In short, Indian mariners are steeped in a naval-aviation culture that the Chinese are only starting to instill. Advantage: India.
Both Chinese and Indian flattops—like all warships, and indeed all weapon systems—remain “black boxes” until actually used in battle against real opponents pounding away at them. This is true even of the U.S. Navy, which fought its last major fleet engagement at Leyte Gulf in 1944. Payloads, weapon ranges, and sensor characteristics can look impressive on paper, but weaponry often underperforms the technical characteristics reported in the pages of Jane’s Fighting Ships. Faulty manufacturing, inadequate doctrine or tactics, and less-than-proficient users are only some of the countless variables that can open a chasm between promise and performance.
Observers must keep trying to appraise how platforms will perform in real-world combat. But let’s do so while keeping the political, strategic, and operational context in which battle takes place squarely in view. Numbers tell only part of the tale.

美国文化帝国主义征服一切

朝鮮變天——寫在改變之際

搖晃的飛機終於飛抵朝鮮（北韓）平壤首都機場，走在往出入境關口的通道上，一個 個迎面而來的朝鮮女子身上散發陣陣Chanel牌子的香水味道。香氣背後， 從她們身上的衣著便肯定是對衣著品味有要求的時尚一族，因為花枝招展的顏色和服飾剪裁才是她們唯一的審美標準。在她們手上的，不是LV最 新款的手袋，便是 Gucci的手提包。離開機場的大門，街上，一輛保時捷的跑車突然向我迎面衝來……

我蘇醒過來，眼下原來還在往平壤的高麗航機上，轉身一望，隔對的朝鮮男子手上的那份《勞動新聞》報紙頭條上，寫着「熱烈地恭賀朝鮮人民軍 最高司令官金正恩 被授予共和國元帥稱號」，頃刻再望見面前擺放着一份賣相並不討好，只有薄薄肉片加洋葱，名為「朝鮮漢堡」的午餐，嚥下那似曾相識的感覺， 我不禁反問自己﹕ 「究竟我們認知的朝鮮，是否真的正在改變？」

朝鮮的迪士尼宿命魔咒

這是一個現實﹕任憑你有多反美國，也不能抗拒迪士尼。正正這樣，就能更理解迪士尼為何與朝鮮的金氏政權結下不解之緣。我們知道金正恩的哥 哥金正男，於 2001年曾以偽造的多明尼加護照入境日本，希望一睹東京迪士尼的真面目，結果被發現後遞解出境，自此賠上以嫡長子繼承朝鮮政權的當然地 位。身為現時朝鮮 最高領袖的金正恩，早在20年前，也曾跟二哥金正哲持假護照往日本，專程到東京迪士尼樂園遊玩，更在一幅全家照上戴着米奇老鼠耳朵帽，站 在父親金正日身 邊。這就是金家與迪士尼的宿命魔咒。

伴隨朝鮮兒童成長的，都是千篇一律以愛國與武力捍衛國家為主調、單調且缺乏大眾樂趣的兒童卡通片。例如一套膾炙人口、關於一名年少無知荒 廢學業的小孩的故 事﹕有一天，他如常地躲懶不去溫習，在畫紙上畫上一頂美軍的軍帽，想像用指南針攻擊，直至睡着。夢中他發現有多艘美國軍艦準備攻擊他和他 的同學，學生們以 有限的導彈擊退美軍，然而後來發現有更多的軍艦正在向他們還擊，在未有足夠力量下節節敗退。夢醒了，望着書枱上的數學書本，他覺醒要加倍 努力讀好算術，才 能保家衛國，為國家研發更好的軍備防衛美國的再次入侵。對朝鮮的小朋友一代而言，非人性化、乏味、捍衛國土，統統這些都是伴隨他們成長的 童年夢工場。

大概金正恩滿以為他是朝鮮二千多萬人口中唯一認識米奇老鼠的一人，舉國上下也會因為他革命性地引入親自組建的牡丹峰樂團，並扮演成米奇 老鼠、米妮、小熊維 尼及跳跳虎等著名迪士尼角色在台上蹦蹦跳跳之際，會感謝他「啟蒙」大眾的眼界，這只會顯露出官方低估了民間地下發展速度的愚昧。在朝鮮， 從中國秘密進口的 背包、筆盒和睡衣，都印上迪士尼角色，例如在早前一套名為Goodbye, Pyongyang的紀錄片中，一名在日朝鮮人（Zainichi）與其家人在朝鮮重聚，當他看到小孫女穿上一對印有米奇老鼠的小襪小子時，被問及是否擔 心穿上印有美國牌子的衣物會被政府處罰，孫女卻竊竊私語地回應說﹕「所有人都很喜歡迪士尼，但沒有人知道這是來自美國的！」可見迪士尼已 竊竊地滲入朝鮮民 間的消費生活中。

另外，《小飛象》等迪士尼故事也在地下市場裏翻譯成韓文，供朝鮮學童閱讀。USB儲存並分享的電影如《白雪公主》、《蜘蛛俠》，更成為朝 鮮年輕一代接觸西 方文化的一大渠道。不說不知，從《獅子王》、《風中奇緣》等迪士尼動畫，到惹人喜愛的3D小企鵝及懶惰「丁家貓」（韓國卡通角色），身處 朝鮮共產社會的動 畫師，原來都是幕後功臣。種種種種，都只是訴說一個事實﹕朝鮮與迪士尼結下不解之緣。

電視熒光幕上的牡丹峰樂團，打扮得雖不至像南韓「少女時代」一樣大賣身材和長腿，但她們一身穿上與西方或南韓一般少女別無二樣的緊身露肩 短裙，腳踩高跟鞋 扭腰擺臀，都是亡父金正日生前從沒有批准公開展示的美人景觀。今天袒胸露臂當然是官方認可的大解放，然而平民社會卻一早靜靜地起革命了。

當時尚不再是禁忌

傳統朝鮮女子在隆重場合（如向金日成銅像獻花），會穿上韓服以表莊重，配以保守的髮型，如紮髻或梳直髮。但在一般社交場合，近年朝鮮女子 亦開始流行束辮子、繡球花形、短曲鬈髮、插髮簪等較有時代感的髮型。而且女大學生近年更流行短髮劉海，與傳統古板的長直髮大為不同。

一般在朝鮮的大城市中，每一個里或洞，都會有一至兩間屬於該區的理髮店。有名的例如平壤蒼光院（Changgwangwon），它位於一 座樓高4層的綜合 性健康服務中心之內、大同教美容髮廊（Daedongkyo Beauty Salon）、汶水髮廊（Munsu Parlour）、北塞髮廊（Puksae Parlour），一般的中小型的髮廊大概有3至4名髮型師，大型的則有10名左右駐店的髮型師。

跟 西方的髮型市場接軌，朝鮮原來也會舉行提拔髮型師的全國髮型師比賽，當中2003年3月的朝鮮雜誌《每月家鄉》，亦曾報道過有關比賽，獲 得冠軍的一名叫 Kong Hoon-mi的女髮型師，是畢業於平壤美容技術學院。與此同時，髮型師薪金亦開始以技巧高低來衡量，把優劣市場元素引入髮型行業。最近，朝鮮也研發了一 套電腦模擬拼貼程式，把不同髮型拼入自拍相片，以展現模擬效果。蒸氣電髮器材近期也深受不少朝鮮女子歡迎，當然，根據不少「脫北者」（逃 離朝鮮者）透露， 近年朝鮮電力不足已成為社會常態，一般家居使用電風筒也再不是容易的事，但她們仍會想盡辦法打扮自己，並以電視明星為模仿對象，例如轉為 減少使用電髮需要 的化學物料用量、以木筷代替髮簪來造型，或以食用醋來代替其他電髮的中和物質等。一切一切都是為了重獲女性與生俱來愛裝扮的丁點空間和自 由。

走在街上談情說性

當盲婚啞嫁走進歷史的同時，世間目光對朝鮮這個碩果僅存的共產國家的戀愛生態，依舊懷有上世紀封建年代的價值前設，猜度現今的朝鮮社會大 概還是維持門當戶 對的家族觀念。當然，眼前的現實是朝鮮沒有擺脫「出生成分」（Songbun）的階級分野，愛情只能容許在階級平等的前提下醞釀。但是從 一名脫北者的口述 訪問中，她說﹕「朝鮮的性文化從來也不算保守，縱然自由的性文化不被政府鼓吹，但整體而言人們還是可以在性方面為自己作決定的。」可以看 出，自主的性觀 念，在朝鮮已找到發展的土壤。

回到1960至70年代，年輕人在朝鮮公開約會屬天方夜譚，是不道德的事，一切 直至90年代初期，朝鮮推行男女同校開始，並透過金日成的一句說話——「現 存在南北韓之間的國界已令人感到不安，我們又何必在男女之間製造另一阻礙？」年輕一代兩性接觸的人工隔膜，自此慢慢地打破。根據一名姓朴 的脫北者指出﹕ 「在朝鮮的中學裏，交女朋友和參與童黨打鬥是每一個中學生必須要幹的事。而且由於每一個14至15歲的中學生在春秋兩季都要到農村協助生 產數十天，他們在 農村工作時有直接接觸女生的機會，有些人更會與女生發生關係。」

固然，正如上樑不正下樑歪，不少朝鮮官員的不檢點私生活已不再是平民百姓的秘密，離婚率、墮胎率和擁有情婦的比例之高，大大改變社會大眾 的性觀念。加上透 過中朝邊境入口來自中國大陸和南韓的色情電影，朝鮮再不是性文化的沙漠。再者，當餐廳與戲院在90年代中期起因經濟危機後陸續關閉，一般 平民百姓無所事 事，遂以性來發泄解悶，或以性作生財工具。當然，這樣對金氏政權來說，總比人民思考政權合法性來得更安全，這更助長了政權不反對年輕男女 在公眾場所牽手、 調情和約會，甚至賣淫的風氣。

科技，以朝鮮為本

當世界銀行7月17日發表最新報告指出，目前全世界流動電話用戶超過60億，等於全球人口有四分之三人使用手機時，朝鮮卻是世界上「首屈 一指」手機網絡發展落後的國家之一。

曾幾何時，朝鮮可說是世上唯一沒有鋪設流動通訊系統的國度。然而今天，在朝鮮擁有一部流動電話，再不是遙不可及的事。朝鮮曾經在2000 年前後引入流動通 訊網絡，但礙於擔心一發不可收拾的局面出現，卻於2004年突然全面停止服務供應。可是，當埃及公司Orascom於2008與朝鮮簽訂 推動發展並提供流 動通訊網絡的合約，不消3年之間，不但已有700,000朝鮮市民擁有一部屬於自己的手提電話，他們也把短訊符號「"LOL"」劃時代地 引入朝鮮。當然， 使用Orascom提供的Koryolink的最大問題，是網絡只能在朝鮮本土撥打電話，若然想透過手機與外界接觸，只能非法地使用中國 大陸的手機和網 絡。

根據今年5月由國際非政府組織InterMedia發表的一份名為A Quiet Opening: North Koreans in a Changing Media Environment的研究報告指出，在他們訪問了250名脫北者當中，有53%指出他們曾經擁有一部手機，當中有超過八成人表示他們都是在黑市中從熟 人裏以100美元（約780港元）買入，並且接近全部都是以手機聯絡中國大陸那邊的人，以接洽安排逃走事宜。當然，使用中國網絡的手機通 訊局限頗多，一方 面要在離中朝邊界不遠的地點，而且也要防範有朝鮮「27局」之稱的國內安全部的竊聽。因此雖然在朝鮮使用手機與外界聯繫屬高危行為，但這 也是不少朝鮮商人 和脫北者唯一與外界接觸的聯繫點。

開放與最後一根蘆葦草

23年前當柏林圍牆倒下的一刻，朝鮮政權沒有隨之而倒下；發生在90年代的旱災，也沒有把金正日體制推至崩潰的邊緣；一年前金正日的猝 逝，更絲毫沒有左右 朝鮮三代世襲的劃時代推進。今天金正恩為朝鮮帶來了米奇老鼠、短裙性感的牡丹峰樂團、自行研發的平板電腦、手機網絡、漢堡包與薄餅，把朝 鮮落伍的官方與靜 靜地起革命的朝鮮地下社會拉近，是否就是標誌着改變已降臨朝鮮呢？

 

PBS Tracks The Origins Of A Motown Legend's Amp

James Jamerson played bass on a string of Motown hits. A bass amp with his name on it is the subject of PBS's "History Detectives." / Free Press archives

When Los Angeles musician Steve Fishman came upon a vintage bass amplifier in 2009, he had extra reason to be excited.
Stenciled on the back was the name of a Motown legend: "JAMES JAMERSON."
Did the old Ampeg amp once belong to the late, revered Funk Brothers player, source of the grooves on countless Motown hits? Fishman, a bassist who has recorded with Paul McCartney, knew he had an intriguing case on his hands, and alerted the popular PBS program "History Detectives," which enlists researchers to settle historical mysteries.
The segment, which will premiere Tuesday as part of an hour-long episode, brought Fishman and scholar Eduardo Pagan to Detroit in February to track the amp's origins. If you don't want to know the results of the investigation, read no further.
Fishman was quietly confident the amp was the real deal, he tells the Free Press, but "I knew it would make an interesting show, and I did want the provenance of the amp."
In the segment, Pagan carts the amp to a variety of experts, including Hewitt's Music in Dearborn -- where Jamerson bought gear in the '60s -- and James Jamerson Jr., son of the late bassist.
It's left to Motown guitarist Dennis Coffey to definitively settle the matter.
Fishman winds up with a surprise bonus: a jam session with Coffey and Jamerson Jr., which closes out the episode.
As for the amplifier? Fishman says he'll loan it to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, where Jamerson was inducted in 2000.
"I'm not planning on ever selling it," he says. "Jamerson has been my favorite bass player since I started playing. That's not something I'd ever want to get rid of."

And You Think Germany Will Save EU ?

Moody's warns on Germany's AAA credit rating

Germany could follow France by having its AAA credit rating downgraded

 

The credit ratings agency Moody's has warned the outlook for Germany's AAA credit rating is negative, the first step towards a possible downgrade.

The ratings for the eurozone's other top-rated economies the Netherlands and Luxembourg were also put on negative outlooks.

Moodys said the countries were at risk from wider eurozone troubles and a possible Greek exit from the euro.
France and Austria lost their AAA ratings earlier this year.

香港逾千家长登报反对国民教育科

国民教育家长关注组要求政府叫停国民教育科。

香港逾千名家长周一（7月23日）在三份报纸上刊登联署声明，要求政府叫停原定今年9月于小学推 行的德育及国民教育科。
声明对由政府公币资助出版的《中国模式国情专题教育手册》提出质疑，称所谓国民教育“以 偏概全”、“混淆是非”。

联署者中包括资深大律师、时事评论员等30名社会知名人士。
香港一些学生家长于本月初成立“国民教育家长关注组”，至今已有5000名成员加入。
关注组批评课程指引中的国民教育概念偏颇，将“爱国”和“爱党”混为一谈，要求当局撤回课程。
除刊登联合声明外，关注组还将于周日（7月29日）发起游行，反对“洗脑教育”，预期届时将有至少1万人参加。
香港教师工会昨日宣布加入“民间反对国民教育科大联盟”，会长冯伟华称，教协将发起教师签署《良心约章》，承诺不做向学生洗脑的工 具。
对于即将推行的国民教育科，香港建制派政党如民建联、工联会和新民党等公开表示支持，而公民党、社民运、工党等则明确提出反对。
香港教育局局长吴克俭周六撰文回应批评，称国民教育不是洗脑教育。他并指出《中国模式国庆专题教学手册》不是按国民教育科课程指引 所编写。

根本沒有「中國模式」這回事！

序蔡東豪的《我不信中國模式》


「中國模式」是個常見常用的詞彙，然而界說涵義，言人人殊，耶魯大學金融學系學者陳志武就此立論著書，書名卻是
《根本沒有「中國模式」這回事！》。 就像陳志武教授，蔡東豪同樣信奉市場經濟，認為中國開放後的經濟民生飛躍向前，完全得力於自由市場的核心價值得到中共認可，過去全面領導經濟的國家機器還 騰出空間和「戲份」讓人民分沾，這種改變釋放出驚人的生產動力，擺脫一窮二白的困境。

可惜為山九仞，嚐到經濟甜頭後，只有二三十年歷史的國 內中產，既滿足於高增長帶來的生活改善，也滿意於集權領導一言九鼎的「辦事效率」，對於進一步健全市場的公平競爭、法治基礎和資訊流通等，皆淡然處之，毫 不積極，遑論對民主制度的索求。「市場」受政府人事而非明確政策的規範，官商合作與官商勾結的區分，關鍵往往不在乎法律標準，而是仰仗的官員 是否仍然當 權！

明白經濟增長能磨滅「思變」之心，維穩高於一切的集權政府，遂以大量投資，推動增長，把資源錯配和跡近浪費的弊端視作等閒，中國此一 「Grow out of the problem」的招式，以作者看來，實不足以Grow out of the problem（p.57）！政治領導的掌控意志與市場的無形之手相比，前者的手愈伸愈長，後者則「得些好意便回手」，形成官方壟斷的產業，通過併購而大 事擴張，民企與個體戶生意則相形失色。作者對中國過去十年八年間這種「國進民退」的逆向走勢不以為然，因此疾呼：「我不信！」

不信又怎樣？綜觀天下，中國畢竟仍是世界有數潛力無限、龐大活躍、很多機會、同時也布滿險阻的市場！蔡氏曾為分析員、傳媒人和金融界業者，其 專業識見，不難贏到人們對其觀察和分析能力的信任，高喊不信中國模式，極其量只是開場白的sound bite！

作為一家上市公司的現役總裁，國內市場再不健全，只要有生意可做，蔡東豪還是要廁身其間，不斷打拚，盡其所能，追求實惠！結集當中，環繞他在 國內外營商的探索見聞，才是最值得細味和參考的精華所在。

國 內近年時有民企老闆遇害自殺的消息，民企日子難過，以Tony之見，最大壓力，不是來自中央——「相對於地方政府的極權管治，中央政府猶如一個北歐民主政 府」（p.21）；為什麼「人民大翻身」了那麼多年後，源自封建社會的「山高皇帝遠」、「唔怕官最怕管」、「伴君如伴虎」等等的情況，還是那 麼鮮活地逼到 人前？享有民主的歐美國家，人民何嘗不也狼狽不堪？接二連三的金融風暴、經濟危機，使他們對政客的庸碌無才，同覺氣炸，可是除了認命，似乎也只有接受現實 而別無選擇（新選出的政客一樣難有作為）！相對之下，經濟還有增長的中國，人們便不會貿然為掙脫壓力而生「非份」之想了。

沒有選票的牽制， 技術官僚原本可以憑其專業能力、心無旁騖地挑起管治的責任，香港當年看重文官制度，用意亦不外於此。可是技術官僚的專業判斷永遠敵不過貪腐的敗壞，國內的 地方政府，由於官員並非民選，根本不必顧慮各方爭議，但是貪官污吏卻把原來該以專業知識為基礎的程序扭曲，自把自為，正道迷失，決策生誤，百 病叢生。香港 回歸以後，負責「領軍」管治香港的，在作者筆下，是由「阿爺」、公務員和從政者合成的「騎呢鐵三角」，就像分工不清、管理脆弱的商業機構，業績難看，自不 待言。過渡十五年來，香港管治乏善足陳，有如鬼魅纏身，群眾之於「領軍」三方，絕非真誠的服務對象，而是受用聽命的「附庸」之輩。尊重獨立人 格的自由社 會，人們可以是其是非其非，可以開懷無懼不偏不倚地表達意見，一旦自覺或不自覺地淪為附庸，便身不由己，言難由衷。一日未有通融共識和迎合情理的社會秩 序，一國兩制有意保留殖民地管治那些推崇法治、尊重制度、重視程序、奉行能者居之的銓敍考核和公務員保持政治中立等等的優點，便逐一出現破敗 的跡象。

縱 使不信中國當前的國進民退，蔡東豪卻十分肯定中國經濟改革的大前提是從計劃經濟走往市場經濟，雖然她所走的，不是一條平穩直達的康莊路，過程有快有慢有進 有退，但是取向清晰，目標不移。反觀香港回歸以來的變化，倒真凌亂得深不可測，五十年不變的原意，如今是否已經出現因循怠政而「走樣」？急於 興革的行政長 官會否忽略程序、人事和職業官僚的謹慎作風而把港人向來珍視的質素棄如敝屣？

借「蘭桂坊之父」盛智文不獲領匯股東支持，未能連任非執行董事 一事，作者輕輕帶出香港企業管治文化在質與量方面起了值得注意的變化，他提到國內企業對獨立董事的規限，更為嚴謹，而證監與港交所的監察與管理，功能有否 鬆懈？那是一個包括筆者在內的港人極為關心的問題。財經界似乎是中港最有共通語言的領域，蔡東豪卻藉着上海地產的「股票空手道」一案，指出國 內的商業社會 文化佈滿陷阱，連只是提供專業服務的香港法律界資深人士，也未必具備足夠的警覺性而終至失覺失誤而陷獄。

像在國內山寨貨與盜版之間的磋議， 作者對香港的未來，也感矛盾。結集有一文題為〈我信唐英年〉（p.95），不過，信又怎樣？香港人迎來的，是他感到〈陌生的梁振英〉（p.85）。生意人 永遠追求生意，是利己利人的人間實惠，那與有抱負的政治領袖一樣，他們並非沒有為國為民的存心，可是一入權責傾斜，缺乏制衡、理性沒有用武之 地的社會，造 福社會的再好意願，也有可能換來事與願違的人禍。

無論是在政界、財經界或工貿界，蔡東豪高舉的核心價值是自由、是開明、是法治、是理性、是 一絲不苟的專業精神、是持之以恆的謹慎管理、是用人唯才，是能者居之……。很多香港人都有差不多的理念，蔡東豪以文字寫下他的見解，從實例說明事有成敗的 關鍵所在，希望香港未來是循理性的方向發展。

這是一本仍存真摯的人所寫的好書。

漢 奸新品種

北韓昭告餓得直翻白眼的人民：將有重大新聞發布，原來是八〇後的金正恩自封為元帥。參謀總長玄永哲在全軍大會上稱，金正恩“以非凡的 指揮藝術進一步加強和發展人民軍，向全世界弘揚朝鮮的尊嚴和威儀，是天下第一名將、百戰百勝的鋼鐵統帥。”

孰料央視是日國際新聞卻被敘利亞國家安全部被炸佔了頭條， 主播以沉痛壓抑的語調，報告敘利亞國防部長、內政部長等多名政要罹難。央視 沒有提及同係子承父業的世襲總統阿薩德的妻子已逃往俄羅斯，於是聯想起八九民運時局勢混沌之際，李鵬太太朱琳也遁到廣東惠州盤桓多 日，直至六四開槍，她才如釋重負飛回北京。倘無這場鎮壓，哪有權可傾朝、富可敵國的李鵬家族？哪有李小鵬、李小琳一官一商這對鳳麟兒 女的今天？
然而，敘利亞變局又為央視名嘴張召忠增添了娛樂色彩。張是中國人民解放軍的軍事理論家、軍事評論家、國防大學教授、軍事戰略學博士生導師、海軍少 將。張召忠長期在央視任軍事評論員，第二次海灣戰爭時，他預言美國 不敢攻打伊拉克，結果話音未落，美軍就開打；他又預言美軍將陷入人 民戰爭的汪洋大海，更兼薩達姆有共和國衛隊精銳，美軍不敢貿然攻打首都，結果話音未落，摧枯拉朽的美軍已拿下巴格達；利比亞內戰，張預言卡扎菲得到人民支持，短期不會失敗，結果卡扎菲王朝僅幾個月就土崩瓦解；北韓試驗發射衛星，張預測成功率有八成，結果運載火箭爆炸成碎片；印度發射“烈火”導彈系列，張認為該國過去導彈試驗的成功率只有六成，這次失敗機率很大，結果 “烈火”發射成功；言猶在耳的是張召忠預測“敘利亞不會被征服”， “譁變軍官不會成氣候”，結果敘利亞一聲驚雷，已變天在即。

網民歡呼又失去一個“中國人民的老朋友”之餘，把張召忠譽為央視“烏鴉嘴”和“開心果”，指他害死薩達姆、卡扎 菲、又在害敘利亞的阿薩德，完成了美國交給他的任務。何來此說？

原來網民發現張少將和司馬南一樣，不遺餘力地反美，卻把兒子送到美國當“人質”。

鑑於愛國狂們動輒罵人漢奸，這頂帽子可完璧奉還，更鑑證此係漢奸新品種。

只不過，張召忠和司馬南之流僅係 小漢奸，那些把寶眷和家財都送出去的才是大漢奸。將中國人民的血汗錢拿去填美國爛賬和 買歐洲垃圾債券的，是特大漢奸。至於那個唱紅、寫紅色短信、用紅色 經典治療精神病的薄熙來，連自家的海外財產和商務都交給洋人料理，則是漢奸中的極品。他大概會在不太久的將來要 “被精神病”了，屆時可繼續實驗用紅歌紅片去做精神康復，倘若成功，堪為對人類功德無量的貢獻。

 4 Triggers That Could Cause A Meltdown In China's Enormous Shadow Banking System

China will release official reports on several economic indicators tonight. Chinese growth is slowing and fears of a hard landing for the Chinese economy are resurfacing.

Major undercurrents in China's financial system make a hard landing a real possibility. The shadow banking system, which is comprised of non-bank institutions that lend to high-risk borrowers, has the ability to send serious shockwaves through China if it collapses. This is partly due to its sheer size – at an estimated 14.5 trillion renminbi in outstanding loans, the shadow banking system in China is around 25 percent of all renminbi-denominated loans in the entire Chinese banking system.

BofA China strategist David Cui wrote recently in a note to clients that the risks emanating from the shadow banking system in China could be even bigger than that when you account for how the shadow banking system actually works:

Another issue we need to take into account is money velocity. Given that loans in the underground lending market often last only for days or weeks, it’s reasonable to assume that some of the shadow money may have a much higher velocity than commercial loans. As a result, the relative size of banks and shadow banks may underestimate the latter’s impact on the economy.

In other words, that credit is being recycled through the system at a much higher rate than loans on the books of traditional banks, which is part of its importance to the overall flow of credit in the Chinese economy.

Referring to the shadow banking system, Cui writes that "the risk of bad debt experience in this market over the next 12-18 months" is high, and that "if it materialises, the fallout could be severe."

Here are four triggers that Cui thinks could cause a full-blown run on the shadow banking system in China:

    (Illegal) Ponzi schemes falling apart: Cui notes that this has already started happening, writing that "since mid 2011, there are at least 14 reported cases of Rmb500mn+ Ponzi schemes gone bust, with eight occurring so far this year."
    A wave of defaults in highly-leveraged loans: Shadow banking entities make money by borrowing from the banking system at low interest rates and lending out at high interest rates to high-risk borrowers. Since most entities don't also take deposits to back these loans, what you have, according to Cui, is a "thin capital base [that] can be wiped out fairly quickly" when "loan demand starts to weaken and their investments (loans) go bad."
    More turbulence in the Chinese property market: Many of the borrowers from the shadow banking system, according to Cui, are "low-tier developers who have limited access to the official loan market." And the collateral being pledged against most of the loans from shadow banking entities: "probably property." So, if property prices tumble, that collateral quickly becomes worthless and causes loans to default.
    Shrinking corporate sector earnings: A host of Chinese financial products have guaranteed high returns lately due to high inflation rates. However, with the real economy weakening in China as demand disappears, profits are decreasing. Essentially, if earnings in the real economy can't support the investment returns that the shadow banking system has promised to investors, Cui says that "the divergence may become unsustainable, resulting in significant bad debts in the shadow system.

Cui's bottom line: "Many of the potential bad debts in the shadow banking sector may ultimately end up on banks’ balance sheet." And with worries over slowing growth in China as the crisis in Europe deepens and Europeans import less Chinese goods, a banking crisis is the last thing the Chinese economy needs.