Sunday, May 30, 2010

KCPO:- Nothing Happens Again, For The Time Being -1/6/2010


As I suspected last week, it turned out to be another of those mini moves. If you had applied the yesterday low minus 2 points system, you would at least kept some profit. If you applied my stop at 2460, you would had incurred a small loss. But that is part of the trading game and this kind of thing happens all the time when the market is in a sideway mode.

The MACD remains negative while the Stochastic seems to be turning down again. Price may be above the lower Bollinger Band, but with the D- is still above the D+ , we are not getting any concrete signal to buy again. I also take note that the ADC continue to be flat which is telling us there is no or little trend in this market. So what I would do is to draw 2 horizontal lines to mark out its previous range and look for any breakout from this range before deciding the next course of action.



Both the weekly Stochastic and MACD continue to negative and falling. A word of caution here:- pay attention to the MACD is fast approaching its zero signal line, if that is breached, it would be a very significant sell signal. The falling ADX which is now at an extreme lows of 15's and the continuing tightening Bollinger Band are both confirming the lack of trend here, BUT they are also warning us that an explosive move may be on its way. So you should keep an eye on this.

I cannot find any major bullish or bearish formation in both the daily and weekly chart, so I cannot really say what is going to happen next. But if I am to force on a theory, maybe we can say there is an imperfect double tops formation, so if that is the case here, then we should pay more attention to the sell side.
FKLI:-  Maybe A Technical Rebound But The Worse Is Not Over - 31/5/10


Last Thursday the market recovered some lost ground on China's declared supports for Euro news, but is this the end of the falls in this market? The MACD has turned flat but remain negative, the gap between the MACD and its moving average remains wide. The Stochastic may be in the so called "oversold" zone , but bearing in mind that the ADX is now at 27's, it would be prudent that we watch the MACD instead. But I will place stop at 1285 to protect profit.

As the ADX is still rising, so I cannot say that the current bear cycle s over yet.



The weekly chart Stochastic has just fallen through its 80's signal line which offers the initial sell signal. The negative MACD is continuing its fall, any crossing down its zero signal line wold probably bring out the big bears in numbers. The new low in the week qualified the extreme sell signal of the D- crossing above the D+, but the weekly candlestick managed to close back above the lower Bollinger Band and form a Doji which may be interpreted as temporary bottom. The flat ADX means that a strong trend has not emerged yet.

So in the coming week, we may expect some technical rebound in a grossly fearfully sold down market, but I do not think the bear cycle is over and selling will resume soon after that.

For the equities investors, this is a live example how one should sell off their shares no matter how "blue chip" they are considered. In a bear market, nothing can stand in the way of a panic.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

 
中國人眼中的北韓——來自夜郎的
無間道
 
 
天安號事件發生後,中國外交固然面對國際層面的挑戰,其實同時也要回應內部民意的制衡。雖然公民參與並非中國外交政策制訂的正式程序, 但隨着近年網絡公民社會興起,國民討論國際議題的熱情愈來愈高,北京的對外政策,也多少需要照顧「人民感情」。

網民多認為朝鮮政策需改

在 中國網絡世界,北韓(朝鮮)從來是一個熱門題目,而且還是相對容易獲得自由派和新左派共識的題目﹕自由派認為北京不應和北韓這樣的政權走得太近,新左派則 嫌中國對北韓施加的影響力不夠、讓金正日為所欲為,但結論殊途同歸,都是要北京調節北韓政策,減少對金正日的盲目支持。當然,也有聲音主張縱容北韓來牽制 美國,但自從北韓行為愈來愈奇怪、中國外交行為愈來愈主流,就是強烈反美的網民,也開始主張對北韓施加懲 戒,以彰顯中國的「大國風範」

那 麼究竟北韓在中國人(特別是中國網民)眼中的形象是怎樣的?筆者剛完成一個對內地8個討論區的研究,初步歸納如下。首先,一個形容詞經常出現來形容北韓﹕ 「忘恩負義」。這原來指當年中國派出人民志願軍「抗美援朝」,死傷無數,北韓卻自稱自力更生,樹立什麼主體思想,完全不知感 恩圖報,大傷中國人民自尊。由 此推而廣之,當北韓在六方會談不完全聽從北京安排,又公然核試,在不少網民口中,這是全心讓北京丟臉的行為。

「忘恩負義」的同時,北韓另 一個深入民心的形象是「夜郎自大」。一個東北亞小國,自稱以主體思想取代馬列主義、自稱屬於世界第5大文明大 同江文明,這還罷了,最讓網民恥笑的是北韓經 常打腫臉充胖子,經典例子極多。例如北韓人民不被鼓勵穿著入時(大概也沒有經濟基礎去穿著入時),北韓通訊社卻發出新聞稿,告訴世界,簡樸率性的「金正日 服裝」已成為全球時尚指標,不但全國人民加以模仿,甚至世界各地都有追隨者云云。這類新聞被不斷廣傳,而其他什麼金日成花、金正日樹葉,每 樣北韓特產,都 是網上娛樂泉源。

今日朝鮮不如文革時中國

說到金正日一家的獨裁政權,內地網民也是劣評如潮,認為這樣公然搞家天下、極權 主義,比文革時代的中國更不堪。金氏父子經常被拿來和毛澤東比較,不少網民(特別是傾向新左派的)認為,儘管毛澤東作風專制,但甚為自律,文革時的中國起 碼沒有貪污,不像金正日窮奢極侈。而且北韓國內雖然封閉,但不少北韓官員和商人都有和中國接觸,這些人自然不是一清如水,這是內地人親眼所見的,令北韓政 權的道德水平進一步為人質疑。結論就是,今日北韓尚不如文革時代的中國,無論經濟水平還是道德水平都是。

基於北韓種種往績,不少內地人警 告這是一個「無間道政權」,今天它以種種非常規手法和西方周旋,有朝一日,完全可以施加 在中國身上。某網站做過一項調查,發現大多數中國網民相信北韓早晚 會與美國正式建交,而北韓屢屢希望繞過中國直接與美國溝通,也深為網民不滿。在這些前提下,很難相信進一步和北韓發展關係的國策,會得到民意支持。畢竟金 氏政權的不可測性太強,這對喜歡預知未來的北京,是難以長期忍受的。 
 
沈旭暉
 
 

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

 
The Legendary Chess Label

Films focusing on the life and times of record label bosses are few and far between. But then there's Chess Records. The 2008 release Cadillac Records told the tale of this legendary, highly influential Windy City label and its founders - brothers Leonard and Phil Chess - in a glossed-over Hollywood sort of way, while the just-released "Who Do You Love" tells a much grittier and somewhat historically-skewed version that will ultimately still satisfy those who expect to see lots of gunplay and drug consumption.

Naturally, half of the story here revolves around the sounds that stirred the pot, and Chess Select presents classic blues, rock 'n' roll, R&B, and soul from the label's vast catalog.
Of interest (and a financial relief) to music fans who have continually repurchased reissue after reissue, are knockout box sets from Chuck Berry and Bo Diddley, both of whom are credited in the above films as bridging blues and rock 'n' roll. Diddley's trademark, pounding beat influenced everyone from Buddy Holly and The Rolling Stones to Iggy Pop and The Jesus & Mary Chain, and each of his Chess Masters (spanning 1955-1961) is packed full of rockers, novelties, instrumentals, blues, doo wop, ballads, and a bounty of previously-unreleased booty including raw and reckless home demo recordings. Berry's jet-propelled electric boogie - depending who you talk to - merits equal or greater value, and included on his three sets of  Complete Chess Recordings (which gather everything from 1955-1966 and 1969-1974) are numerous multiple takes, blues covers, jam sessions, and a shelved 45 minute live concert album recorded in Michigan in 1963, all culminating with the smokin' London Chuck Berry Sessions and the somewhat silly and naughty novelty pop of "My Ding-A-Ling."

Other Chess Select releases from Muddy Waters, Koko Taylor, and Little Walter only add to the long-lauded legacy of one of America's treasured musical institutions.


 
 
 
CD debut of The King Of The Blues first album for ABC Records
 
 
 
 
2-CD set + free guitar magnet while supplies last!
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
One of rock 'n' roll's
greatest innovators at his peak.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Third and last 4 CD set of Chuck Berrys Chess recordings.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A wonderful 4CD continuation of his ground-breaking, "50's Recordings."
 
 
 
 
First Time On CD in the US
 
 
 
 
 
 
Elected to Blues Hall Of Fame!
 
 
 
 
The Queen Of Chicago Blues!
 
 
 
 
 
 
As shown in the Chess Records bio film, "Cadillac Records," in the world of pop, rock and blues harmonica, there are two distinct eras: before Little Walter and post Little Walter.
 
 
 
 
Legendary Chicago Bluesmans mid-period classics get the deluxe treatment!
 
 
 
 
 
 
A long missing piece in the Muddy Waters Chess puzzle is finally available again!
 
 
 


森 那美的真實故事

森那美總執行長阿末朱比爾真可憐,他並非首位被能力範圍之外的情勢所困擾的森那美高層。1972年1月2 日,我向某高官建議,敦拉薩首相開啟了新經濟政策,大馬是時候擁有本身的企業集團了。

當時,英國人掌控了金融、種植及錫礦業。華人擁有的橡膠園,最大的只有7,000英畝。在這個獨立不久的國家,不少人還在做苦 工。新經濟政策承諾讓國人有個新的開始。若不成立馬來人領導,並且獲得非馬來人合作的企業,國人將陷入惡性競爭中。當時,經濟七成 由英國人掌控,本地人 將為三等資產展開割喉戰。若非後來成為國民投資(PNB)旗艦的森那美,新經濟政策造就的不少非馬來人富豪將不會出現。

1982年開始,管理層開始由大馬人掌控。同年,森那美也迅速拋售了不少優質資產,如:印度阿薩姆茶葉公司Shaw Wallace,據說買主兒子如今是印度Kingfisher航空老闆,並成了以億萬富翁;以新幣2,300萬元將新加坡據說即將倒 塌,但至今依然完好的 兩座烏節大廈賣給承包商;企圖拍賣卻失敗的香港淘化大同公司土地,最後與房地產商合作,建成了地鐵站。最終,公司僅剩下20萬英畝的園丘。連森那美大廈都不屬於公司,因為80年代初董事局被告知沒錢。

1990年,管理層將武吉布倫東園丘以400萬令吉出售。我問管理層為何不詢問董事 們的意見, 他們說,這塊地很小,不到公司2%的資產,不需要過 問。哪知道,幾經轉手,他人卻以8,800萬賣出這片土地。問管理層為何不把這高價的土地賣給子公司Sime UEP,沒人能回答我。

1992年,管理層要我批准以3,200萬令吉購買一片沙巴多年來賣不出的油棕園。 但我知道這 片園丘不值得這個價錢,因此就拒絕了。第二天,管理層 就叫我辭職了。

之後,他們以7,200萬美元收購了美國佛羅里達州的Sandestin高爾夫度假 村,「為大 馬培訓酒店管理人才」。1997年亞洲風暴後,才將度 假村以相同數目的貶值馬幣出售。

要塑造企業文化,可能要花十年以上,但森那沒並不成功。無論廣告怎麼說,森那美的核心業務是種植,並且經常改造其他子公司的財 務報表以獲利。 1976年來,森那美不停地陷入醜聞!

森那美成立的目的,本來是為大馬企業界併購卓越的海外公司。本來,有人建議讓森那美收購茶葉公司Harrisons & Crosfield的10%股份,以實現技術轉移及培訓,但最後,森那美卻選擇以相同價格購買吉蘭丹的Golden Chersonese園丘。
樂天派的我,依然相信森那美能成為大馬在海外的企業旗手。但它必須選擇正確的人選做正確的事。經營的焦點,也必須考慮到國內的 社會經濟環境等。

要力爭上游,森那美必須收購或與其他頂尖企業合作,並透明地確保這能為國人在知識轉移、就業及股東回籌方面帶來收益。它儘可能應該不與本地企業競爭,如在房地產、汽車、旅遊等領域。如此,森那美將為世界所讚揚,而非像現在,為了廣告中本應結束的海外生意感到自豪。為了國家及股東的利益,森那美若要開始認真 為首相納吉的「一個馬 來西亞」概念作出貢獻,現在還是來得及的。

Dr Chan Chin Cheung于1974至1992年間出任森那美董事。


Chinese Oil Companies Taking Advantage of Energy Consumers


Sometimes, China’s energy policies just make no sense at all. Consider the import and export patterns on oil products. In presumably socialist China, the oil majors PetroChina and Sinopec have been once again exporting oil products at much cheaper prices than those charged in the domestic market. This situation turns the entire concept of their monopoly of these products in China on its head. By having a monopoly, they were supposed to shield Chinese consumers from capitalist international market fluctuations and look after their interests. That’s not happening. Instead, it appears that they are exporting refined products in an effort to gain better prices on the products they sell into the domestic market.

In the first quarter of 2010, China exported 6.94 million tons of oil products, an increase of 66.4% over the same period of 2009. In March, export prices for gasoline and diesel were $737 and $683 per ton, respectively, but retail gasoline prices in big cities such as Shenyang, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou ranged from $1,274 to $1,344 per ton. Even after subtracting about 30% for taxes (unclear exactly what is the tax level) the domestic price for those products has been much higher than that for exports. (China’s crude oil is mainly imported from Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iran, while oil products are mainly exported to Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and, even Panama.)

There is a presumed formula for the pricing. According to “Petroleum Price Management Trial Method” promulgated by the NDRC in May 2009, if during 22 business days, the crude price in the international market changes by an average 4%, the price of oil products in China will be adjusted. This policy is set by the government to limit the upper price of the oil products and to avoid the effect of sudden fluctuation of international oil price on China’s market. However, this policy has caused a major disconnect between the international crude price and the domestic oil product price. The monopoly of oil and gas by the national companies has made the situation worse.

Unlike the rest of the world, China’s oil product prices have not been adjusted by the market. Excessive supply doesn’t guarantee lower prices (like Malaysia).
On April 14, the NDRC pronounced domestic gasoline and diesel prices increases of $47 per ton (or $0.13 per gallon for gasoline, $0.15 per gallon for diesel) according to this pricing mechanism, even though there was an excess of oil products of 18.54 million tons at the end of March. The international crude price has been fluctuating since then and it is expected that the oil product price will increase again in the middle of May.

This is exactly a repeat of last year’s situation. In 2009, China’s oil product wholesale and retail prices had been increasing and there was a shortage of oil products. From January to August 2009, China exported 14.96 million tonnes of oil products with the average price of $444.5 per tonne, or $1.337 per gallon. However, gasoline prices in Beijing went as high as $3.70 per gallon during the same period.

Oil companies claimed that the domestic price was set by the government and not controlled by them. However, China’s automobile owners have been blaming the oil companies claiming that they are manipulating prices and trying to gain as much profit as they can domestically.

Now the government is under substantial public pressure for oil products pricing. To protect the refinery business, the oil majors can either increase the oil product wholesale price or stop supplying the oil products to gas stations to push the government to increase the price even if the government refuses to do so. Under such circumstances, the government is running out of options but to reform the pricing scheme. As PetroChina CEO Jiang Jiemin said during a meeting in March, although generally the NDRC pricing mechanism runs smoothly and fits China’s characteristics, it has ill effects on oil products processing and marketing. He advocated a policy that would allow prices to fluctuate so that they reflect the gyrations in the international crude market.

Along with the conflict between the coal supply and coal fired power generation, the pricing quandaries of the domestic natural gas and the imported natural gas, oil products pricing has become another headache in China’s energy sector.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

 

Experts Propose Plugging Oil Leak with BP Executives

 

 

Submerging Execs Could Be 'Win-Win'

WASHINGTON – At a conference of oil leak experts in Washington today, attendees proposed plugging the massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico with executives of BP, the company responsible for the catastrophic spill.

“We’ve tried containment domes, rubber tires, and even golf balls,” said William Cathermeyer of the National Oil Leakage Institute, a leading consultancy in the field of oil leaks.  “Now it’s time to shove some BP executives down there and hope for the best.”

Submerging the oil company executives thousands of feet below the ocean’s surface could be a “win-win” situation, Mr. Cathermeyer said.

“Best-case scenario, they plug the leak,” he said.  “And at the very least, they’ll shut the fuck up.”

But even as the oil leak experts proposed their unorthodox solution, environmental expert Marilyn Sufranski warned of the possible negative consequences of plugging the oil leak with BP executives.

“The Gulf of Mexico is slimy enough already,” she said.

(The Borowitz Report)
Greece has defaulted before, and so have many others


Q: Does Greece have a history of defaulting on its debt?
A: Anytime you think something in financial markets is unprecedented, just speak with a market historian to get some perspective.

Given the random nature of markets, and the importance of money to most cultures, you might be surprised to find out how many times events called "unprecedented" have happened.

Most recently, investors have gotten unnerved about the financial woes of Greece. The idea of a company, much less a country, not being able to pay its debts is staggering. But you might be surprised to learn it's not that unusual.

Consider Greece. This recent scare is not the first time the country has had debt issues.The nation has defaulted or restructured its debt five times since 1826, according to market historian Bryan Taylor, chief economist at Global Financial Data.

The first time Greece issued debt was Feb. 21, 1824, when it sold bonds yielding 5%. Those 1824 bonds paid just five payments before the nation defaulted in July 1827, Taylor says.

But let's not make the mistake of painting Greeks as deadbeats. National defaults, while rare, aren't unheard of. Other European nations that have defaulted include: Austria (three times), Bulgaria (twice), Germany (in 1932), Hungary (1931), Italy (1940), Poland (twice), Portugal (twice), Romania (three times), Russia (twice), Serbia/Yugoslavia (three times), Spain (three times) and Turkey (four times).

What's the lesson from this history? First, know that bond prices are an excellent indicator of troubles with debtors. When bond prices fall, sending yields higher, that's a pretty good indicator that investors think default is more likely. These events are usually seen by capital markets .

But perhaps even more important, before you panic and think something is unprecedented, check the history. You'd be surprised how many times the unthnkable, or the seemingly impossible, has happened. 

USA Today

Sunday, May 23, 2010



Ask This Question :- "How Safe Are The Australian Banks ?"




Be prepared to short the banks! In particular, CBA and Westpac.


  • 50% of Australia’s mortgage market is held by CBA and Westpac, 25% are held by ANZ & NAB (see CoreData’s Australian Mortgage Report Q1 2010)
  • As at December 2009, 60% of CBA’s lending books are mortgages. 50% of Westpac’s lending books are mortgage.1 Both figures are set to continue to grow.
  • Look at CBA 2009 annual report—Leverage ratio is almost 20 times (total assets of $620.4 billion against $31.4 billion of equity). Of $620.4 billion of assets, $473.7 billion are loan assets. If around 6.6% of CBA’s loans go bad (any loans, not just mortgages), 100% of its shareholder equity will be wiped out!!2
  • Australia’s banks have $13 trillion of off-balance sheet liabilities, according to RBA’s figures!3


In 2008, The Australian reported1, The Reserve Bank of Australia has a dark worry about our banks: they get 90 per cent of their cash from each other. If one bank gets into trouble, the Australian financial system could be snap-frozen overnight.




KCPO:- Changing direction again ! 24/5/2010

This market is getting tough again as selling
stalled after gaping down on last Monday. Price has started moving up and closed above the lower Bollinger Band on Thursday. This effectively stopped out my shorts and turned buy again with the support of the Stochastic crossing up above 20's. I will add more long positions when the MACD turns positive. Meanwhile place stop at 2460.



Please note the ADX is turning down and may fall below its 20's signal line, so be cautious that this may be another one of those mini moves. Be ready to take quick profit .


The weekly chart has failed to confirm any reversal. The Stochatic and MACD are still negative and still falling. In fact a  new sell signal has flashed when the D- goes above the D+. But I would not get too excited yet as the ADX is still falling which mean there is no trend in this market. So I would just act on the daily chart and trade on a short term basis and with smaller lots.

As the weekly Bollinger Band continues to tighten and the ADX stays below 20's since early April, this is another one of those exciting setup with possible explosive moves around the corner. So you should not get asleep at wheel. Though I must admit I am at a loss of  guessing its next possible direction.




Saturday, May 22, 2010

FKLI:- Finally the bear bares its claws 24/5/2010

Last week I wrote: "
And I would remain alert as a massive downside break may be just around the corner." because the ADX has been below 20's since late April and the Bollinger Band has been tightening . These are classic signs of an explosive move is due soon. And this explosive move finally came on last Wednesday when price collapsed below the lower Bollinger Band and most importantly of all, it went below the prior range (which I had marked out with 2 horizontal lines.) 






 

Both the MACD and the Stochastic are now in conformity with each other. The MACD has crossed below its zero signal line and the Stochastic has crossed down its 50's signal line. Both are usually taken as a more significant sell signal. The most promising item is the ADX which has begun to rise and crossed above the falling D+  which is another great sell signal. The ADX has gone above 20's and the D- is widening its upside , both of which are confirming the beginning of a new trend.

Last week's gaping down action  have rendered placing of stops difficult as they are far from Friday's closing. I would think sticking to my trading system of using the lower Bollinger Band plus 1-2 points should be maintained as following our trading plan is of utmost importance even though it may mean foregoing some sizable profits. So the stop should be 1317.   





The weekly chart is fast confirming the daily chart's bearishness. The Stochastic has turned negative and when it crosses down its 80's signal line, the sell signal would be more prominent. The MACD has also turned negative. Price closed below 2 major supports of the upper and middle Bollinger Band, if price closes below the lower band by the coming Friday, then it would be official end of the prior great bull cycle that began March last year. The D- has also crossed above the D+, if next week's price is go below 1277, then that should be taken as another major sell signal.

With a bearish divergence found at both the daily and weekly chart, we should NOT fool ourselves and think this is merely a minor "correction" and go "accumulate on weakness".
Baring any unforeseen circumstances (like another government's intervention), this market may be the beginning of the new bear cycle and it will get very ugly. Of course as usual, this does not augur well with the bullish statistics that you are reading now, but as proven numerous times , chart readings always foretell changes in the economic fundamentals well in advance. Just think how I called the return of US Dollars' current bull as early as last November ? The chart foretold the return of the USD bull when the 'fundamentals' were saying that it is becoming worthless toilet papers. So in the current case, I would place more faith in the charts than on the statistics.
 

 

文明中國齊聲呼喊:「納粹、納粹!」


遊客不文明擬撤館?德國否認繼捷克之後,德國據傳因遊客不文明不排隊、組織單位管理差,也向中國上海世博當局反映將撤館。不過,德國 當局否認了此項傳言。

並沒有此打算,但呼籲遊客們文明遊園卻是事實。

「撤館?不,決不會的。你從哪兒得知的消息,是德國館的官網嗎?我們並沒有撤館的想法。」德國館項目的要員在接受記者電話採訪時,斷然否認了外界所 謂「德國館將撤館」的傳言,並表示在未來的世博展期內,德國館將一如既往地做好對遊客的服務工作。

據稱,德方此前向世博官方反映的問題已獲得妥善解決。德方表示,類似事件僅發生在極少數遊客身上,99.9%的遊客在參觀時很有禮貌。

動手採花動口辱罵

有關傳言起因由個別不文明遊客所引發。德國館是上海世博會最熱門展館之一,從開園至今每天都會引來大批遊客排隊參觀。由於進入該館需要排隊若干小 時,因此有遊客萌生了「走後門(貴賓通道)」的想法。但這些不文明遊客不具有「貴賓身份」,德國館工作人員堅持拒絕給他們通過,有人因此對德方人員 惡言相向,導致雙方發生爭執。

另有傳言指出,德國館館長施米茨本月初曾向上海世博當局提交抗議信,投訴中國遊客於世博開幕初期,因不滿排隊太久,拔起館外的花卉擲向展館、故意踹 工作人員的腳,




並齊聲呼喊:「納粹、納粹!」辱罵的行為




他說:「這些中國人根本不知自己呼喊的是甚麼!」
施米茨在信中表示無法接受此類涉及侮辱和人身攻擊的言行,要求主辦方加強保安,否則關館。據悉,德國館外近幾天除了有志願者及保安維持秩序,更有武 警全天候駐守。
傳言還指奧地利館、瑞士展館前也有遊客毆鬥,瑞士館的工作人員更受到侮辱

早在德國館之前,捷克館也曾因排隊時間較長、物資運送麻煩等問題,以及工作人員簽證尚未延期等問題,向世博局投訴,並稱若得不到改善或選擇撤館。不 過,這一傳言也被世博局官方否認。「現在捷克館運作很正常。」上海世博局局長洪浩早前在發佈會上表示,捷克館不會撤館,該館所述問題已獲解決。


Friday, May 21, 2010

Australia & China:- You Jump , I Jump
Aussie Dragged Down Under by Credit Woes, Consumer Sentiment


The continued European debt concerns and potential economic slowdown in China are weighing heavily on the Aussie Dollar. The currency has tumbled more than 800 ticks over a two-week span. Commodity prices, including the base metal sector that the Australian economy relies on, have tumbled in recent weeks on concerns that Europe is quickly losing control over the Greek situation. The extreme measures being taken by Germany, including the ban on short-selling of certain financial securities and sovereign debt, are a sign that financial policymakers may be grasping at straws, trying to stop the bleeding by any means possible. Domestically, the economic uncertainty both domestically and in China have taken their toll on the psyche of Australian consumers, as evidenced by the poorest showing in consumer confidence in over a year and a half. Australia raised interest rates for the sixth time since October of last year two weeks ago. Normally, such a move would be seen as a positive for the high yielding currency because of favorable interest rate parity. The higher borrowing costs have been cause for concern for consumers, who may be weary of opening their pocketbooks. Australian policymakers were looking for a gradual reduction in the exchange rate of the Aussie Dollar, but the sharp reduction in the exchange rate over the past two weeks may be alarming. The sharp fall in the currency could attract some value buying from investors, who may see the decline as too drastic and too quick. If Europe does manage to get a grip on their financial crisis, the Aussie has the potential to rebound sharply. On the other hand, if China continues to restrict real estate speculation and the European situation worsens, the Aussie could find itself continuing to face sustained downward pressure.

All me and my schoolmates saw was a double tops at AUD chart that usually promises a glorious death :-



 
 
JIMMY & DAVID RUFFIN: I AM MY BROTHER'S KEEPER [EXPANDED EDITION]


By the end of the 1960s, David Ruffin had left the Temptations, leaving behind a brief but treasured legacy as the voice of their immortal hits "My Girl," "Ain't Too Proud To Beg," I Wish It Would Rain" and more; his solo career had started with a flourish as "My Whole World Ended (The Moment You Left Me)" reached the top ten. His older brother Jimmy would forever be remembered for his classic "What Becomes Of The Brokenhearted;" Jimmy had also found international fame as a favorite of UK. fans.  Then, Jimmy thought, why don't we do an album together? I AM MY BROTHER'S KEEPER, released in the fall of 1970, was the stunning result. The album featured Jimmy and David feeding off each other, a whole history of their upbringing and influences poured into 12 thrilling performances.

Along with the great music in this first-ever CD reissue of Brother's Keeper is a 16-page booklet with original and new liner notes, detailed track annotations, great photos, and a reproduction of an original LP cover concept that went unused and missing for decades.


Are Industry People Experts ? Something On Sime Darby



For some strange reasons we tend to think of those people in a particular industry would be know-it-all about that industry. Eg: we think our bankers/stock brokers/fund managers would know about financial markets more than us. A few of my friends also think people who are from plantation companies would know all about CPO price movement. The following old story about Sime Darby should break that myth. And over the years I have heard similar 'horror' stories of big plantation companies' misadventure in the CPO futures market and FX markets (they need those to hedge their exposure in their exports ):-






Sime Darby's RM120m loss: Trader goes missing

KUALA LUMPUR June 12, 2008
: Sime Darby Bhd's RM120 million futures trading loss may have been the work of a single rogue trader who made the wrong bet and was poorly supervised.

Existing and former company officials said the trader in question has since quit the company.

Sime Darby has declined to comment on the matter. The trader could not be contacted.

On Tuesday, Sime Darby fired two top executives after carrying out an inquiry into the trading losses at Golden Jomalina Food Industries, a subsidiary of Golden Hope Plantations Bhd.

Golden Hope has since last year been merged with Kumpulan Guthrie Bhd and Sime Darby Bhd.

Company officials said the trader was one of 20 to 30 futures traders employed by the company to sell Golden Hope's premium crude palm oil (CPO) in the open market to make a higher profit.

The company then buys standard quality CPO from the open market at a lower price so that it can make a better profit margin when used at its oleochemical division. That division processes CPO into value-added products like cooking oil, detergent and soap.

This is a normal practice by almost all plantation companies in Malaysia to protect themselves from the vagaries of CPO's fluctuating price.

"However, he made a mistake by betting against the market since the end of 2006 by locking CPO's selling prices at more than RM1,000 a tonne, thinking prices would go down.

"Until August, however, CPO prices more than doubled and he tried to cover up the losses by counter trading but was unable to do so. As a result, the company accumulated trading losses right until the run-up to the merger late last year,"
one of the officials said.

Realising the loss, the rogue trader who has been a Golden Hope staff for 10 years, left without giving notice. Officials said attempts to locate him failed as the address listed in the company's records turned out to be bogus.

A former official said futures traders were poorly supervised. For instance, they did not have a limit that stopped them from trading when a certain level of loss was incurred. 

It Is About Time !

US Begins Massive Military Build Up Around Iran, Sending Up To 4 New Carrier Groups In Region



As if uncontrollable economic contagion was not enough for the administration, Obama is now willing to add geopolitical risk to the current extremely precarious economic and financial situation. Over at Debkafile we read that the president has decided to "boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants." With just one aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran, the Nobel peace prize winner has decided to send a clear message that peace will no longer be tolerated, and has decided to increase the US aircraft carrier presence in the region by a 400-500% CAGR.

>From Debka:

    Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.

    For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.

    It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.

    The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)

    Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.

We can't wait for Iran to feel completely unthreatened by this escalation and to decide to take no action whatsoever as the Nobelists push it even more into a corner from which the only escape, to a rational player, would be outright aggression... Which begs the question just how an irrational player would react.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

SELL ! SELL ! It Is The End Of The World !

Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year


WHOA! 

Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note:

Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.

That's pretty intense!

Update: By popular demand, here's more on what he sees in the market. The gist is that the markets recent gyrations are telling him that the economy is in trouble:

And I ask myself, "Am I seeing things? The April 26 high for the Dow was 11205.03. The Dow is selling as write at 10557 down 648 points from its April high. If business is even better than expected, then why is the Dow down over 600 points? And why, if there were 674 new highs on the NYSE on April 26, were there only 20 new highs on Friday, May 14? And if my PTI was 6133 on April 26, why is it down 17 points since its April high?

The fact is that I've been seeing deterioration in the stock market ever since early-April, and this in the face of improving business news. The D-J Industrial Average is composed of 30 internationally known top-quality blue-chip stocks. These are 30 of "America's biggest companies." If Barron's is so bullish on the future of America's biggest companies, then why isn't the Dow advancing to new highs?

Clearly something is wrong. But what could it be? Much as I love
Barron's, I trust the stock market more. If I read the stock market correctly, it's telling me that there is a surprise ahead. And that  surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a collection of other troubles ahead.

About Dow Theory -- First, we saw the recent April highs in the
Averages. Then we saw a plunge in both Averages to their May 7 lows -- Industrials to 10380.43, Transports to 4298.12, next a short rally. If ahead, the two Averages turn down and violate their May 7 lows, that would be the clincher. Such action would signal the certain resumption of the primary bear market.

Just as for years I asked, cajoled, insisted, threatened, demanded,
that my subscribers buy gold, I am now insisting, demanding, begging my subscribers to get OUT of stocks (including C and BYD, but not including golds) and get into cash or gold (bullion if possible). If the two Averages violate their May 7 lows, I see a major crash as the outcome. Pul - leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don't give a damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits!


China Government Embraces Facebook

 
China to Stop Spying on its People; Will Use Facebook Instead

Social Network to Replace Listening Devices, Spy Satellites

BEIJING -  - The Chinese government announced today that it would disband its extensive domestic spying program that gathers personal information on its citizens and would instead use Facebook.

According to the head of the domestic spying operation, China decided to scrap its elaborate array of spy satellites, eavesdropping devices and closed-circuit surveillance cameras after recognizing that Facebook put them all to shame.

"At the end of the day, we were not getting as much intimate personal data as Facebook does," he said.  "So as of today, every man, woman and child in China is officially our 'friend.'"

The Chinese version of Facebook, launched next week, will feature addictive online games reminiscent of the American version, such as Collective Farmville.

Elsewhere, a new study shows that the link between cell phones and cancer is unclear, but the link between cell phones and assholes remains strong. 
 
 

Beatles 'Get Back Journals' 11-LP box

 THE BEATLES RARE 'GET BACK JOURNALS' 11-LP BOX SET

Category: THE BEATLES
Type of Item:  Vinyl LPs & 45 Singles
Decade:  The 80s
Starting Bid: $250.00
Current Bid: $250.00 


Issued by TMOQ in the early 1980s, this Beatles 'Get Back Journals' 11-LP box set is among the most valuable, collectible and desirable Beatles bootlegs. Professionally presented in a hard top movie case with canvas straps, this elaborate set further features a (folded) poster, as well as a (still sealed) 'Get Back' book. The albums - all colored vinyl - are in pristine condition, as is the rest of the contents.

Only 240 of these box sets were released and this particular one is....(drum roll)....number 0002. Definitely one of the more prestigious vinyl releases to own!
You can bid at:-

http://www.backstageauctions.com/catalog/auction.php

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Saudi Woman Beats Up Virtue Police

 
It was a scene Saudi women’s rights activists have dreamt of for years.

When a Saudi religious policeman sauntered about an amusement park in the eastern Saudi Arabian city of Al-Mubarraz looking for unmarried couples illegally socializing, he probably wasn’t expecting much opposition.

But when he approached a young, 20-something couple meandering through the park together, he received an unprecedented whooping.

A member of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the Saudi religious police known locally as the Hai’a, asked the couple to confirm their identities and relationship to one another, as it is a crime in Saudi Arabia for unmarried men and women to mix.

For unknown reasons, the young man collapsed upon being questioned by the cop.

According to the Saudi daily Okaz, the woman then allegedly laid into the religious policeman, punching him repeatedly, and leaving him to be taken to the hospital with bruises across his body and face.

“To see resistance from a woman means a lot,” Wajiha Al-Huwaidar, a Saudi women’s rights activist, told The Media Line news agency. “People are fed up with these religious police, and now they have to pay the price for the humiliation they put people through for years and years. This is just the beginning and there will be more resistance.”

“The media and the Internet have given people a lot of power and the freedom to express their anger,” she said. “The Hai’a are like a militia, but now whenever they do something it’s all over the Internet. This gives them a horrible reputation and gives people power to react.”

Neither the religious police nor the Eastern Province police has made a statement on the incident, and both the names of the couple and the date of the incident have not been made public, but on Monday the incident was all over the Saudi media.

Should the woman be charged, she could face a lengthy prison term and lashings for assaulting a representative of a government institution.

Saudi law does not permit women to be in public spaces without a male guardian. Women are not allowed to drive, inherit, divorce or gain custody of children, and cannot socialize with unrelated men.

Officers of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice are tasked with enforcing such laws, but it hasn’t been an easy year for Saudi Arabia’s religious police.

The decision last year by Saudi King Abdullah to open the kingdom’s first co-educational institution, with no religious police on campus, led to a national crises for Saudi Arabia’s conservative religious authorities, with the new university becoming a cultural proxy war for whether or not women and men should be allowed to mix publicly.

A senior Saudi cleric publicly criticized the gender mixing at the university and was summarily fired by the king.

That was followed in December by a surprise announcement from Sheikh Ahmed Al-Ghamdi, head of the Saudi religious police commission in Mecca, who published an article against gender segregation, leading to threats on his life and rumors that he had been or would be fired.

Meanwhile, the Saudi government has gone to great efforts recently to improve the image of the religious police, most notably by firing the national director of the Commission for Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice earlier this year. The new director Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al-Humain then announced a series of training programs and a special unit to handle complaints against the religious police.

Last month, however, members of the religious police in the northern province of Tabuk were charged with assaulting a young woman as she attempted to visit her son, in a move that marked an unprecedented challenge to the religious police’s authority.

"There is some sort of change taking place," Nadya Khalife, the Middle East women’s rights researcher for Human Rights Watch, told The Media Line. "There is clearly a shifting mentality regarding to the male guardianship law and similar issues. More women are speaking out, there are changes within the government, there is a mixed university, the king was photographed with women, they want to allow women to work in the courts and there are changes within the justice ministry. So you can witness some kind of change unfolding but it’s not quite clear what’s happening and it’s not something that’s going to happen overnight." 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Nina Simone:- "Do What You Gotta Do"


Since the early 70's during my Form 4 /5 years, I have been very much moved by this Jim Webb's classic - "Do What You Gotta Do". This same song was then covered by Malaysia very own The Strollers which made it into the local top 10 parade. I was then grooving to another version by the Motown's Four Tops which was hitting big in the UK top 20. All these year, their version remains one of my all time favorites. But then Johnny River's version is also very good.


That was until one fateful day last week when the few CDs by the great Nina Simone which I mail ordered arrived from US. Among all her legendary singings of all her hits and jazz and blues classics, therein lies her cover version of this song which practically caused me to sit up  . All my hairs stood up behind my back listening to her fantastic version.  Thank you god.


Here is she:-


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evFbdkD1puw


Then there is Four Tops' Motown version:-


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0svbAv8bDQ

While johnny River's version is at:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gtDky81qYA

You can get her from:- http://www.dustygroove.com/



Ratings: what are they good for?



They also gave AAA's to  the Lehman's products investors to AIG's. And You Place Your Trusts In These Scoundrels:-

From Bloomberg: S&P Cuts to Junk Mortgage Bonds It Rated AAA in 2009

    Standard & Poor’s cut to junk the ratings on certain securities, backed by U.S. mortgage bonds, that it granted AAA grades when they were created last year ...

    The reductions were among downgrades to 308 classes of so- called re-remics, or re-securitizations, created from 2005 through 2009 ...

    “The downgrades reflect our assessment of the significant deterioration in performance of the loans backing the underlying certificates,” S&P analysts Cesar Romero and Terry G. Osterweil said in the statement.

Rated AAA last year and now junk ... ratings: what are they good for?

KCPO:- Will CPO Follow Crude Oil ? 17/5/2010


 

Last Monday the market took out my stop at 2527 but I did not take any new long position as the Stochastic remains negative and soon followed by the MACD. I sold again when price closed below the bottom Bollinger Band as the signal is now supported by both the indicators. The ADX has again started to rise again and it is moving towards the 20's level. If it can go above there, it would signal the beginning of a new trend. It is getting more promising as I note that the D- is expanding upward and took out its prior peak and also the width of the Bollinger Band has started to expand.  Place a stop at 2487.

 


The weekly chart indicators remain negative and keep falling.The Stochastic has already fallen below its 50's signal line which is a more confirming sell signal. The MACD is fast approaching its zero signal line, if breached, that would be another great sell signal. Most important of all is that price has closed below the bottom Bollinger Band which is a major sell signal. The only missing confirmation is the ADX which is still falling which is NOT confirming a new trend yet.

Last week there was some report that CPO stock has been falling which by logic is bullish for its prices. But if you are one of those who love the stock levels, you may find it very difficult to understand as to why CPO rallied to 4,500 last even though its stock level has been rising consistently. CPO may be now following what the other commodities are doing now - going down. And if you are trading NYMEX crude oil and has shorted, you should be a very happy person. If we should see crude at 45.00, think how far down will CPO  go.






China's 2 Face



..........at the same time China is trying to slow down their overheated real estate sector market:
[T]he China Securities Journal reported that Shanghai’s municipal government was putting up nearly 40 lots of land for sale in the city’s most extensive release yet.