Friday, May 7, 2010

The Next 10 To Go ?


The World's 10 Biggest Sovereign Default Risks

With all the talk about Greece, investors may have forgotten that there are other serious default risks in the world.

CMA Datavision put together a list of the countries most likely to default, and there are some big names here which may be a part of your emerging markets portfolio.

The list was calculated utilizing CDS numbers, but looking closely at the volatility of that CDS to see which countries experienced the most dramatic percentage changes.

CMA refers to it as "Cumulative Probability of Default", meaning that it is the immediate likelihood of the country experiencing a default scenario.
 

Region of Sicily Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.76%

Republic of Latvia Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.06%

Iraq Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.61%

Dubai Cumulative Probability of Default: 26.41%

Portugal Cumulative Probability of Default: 32.16%

Ukraine Cumulative Probability of Default: 34.75%

Pakistan Cumulative Probability of Default: 38.23%

Argentina Cumulative Probability of Default: 47.39%

Venezuela Cumulative Probability of Default: 49.51%

Greece Cumulative Probability of Default: 51.72%

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