Saturday, July 12, 2014

FCPO - Are he Bears Faking It ? - 7/14/2014

The selling continues for most part of past week. Price remains below the bottom band. The MACD is negative again and falling and so is the Stochastic . It has now entered below the 20's signal line. But I am reluctant to call this oversold as the ADX is above 20's and rising. I would only call it oversold if the ADX goes flat again. The DMI is negative but both the D+ and D- are both falling. This would mean both the buyers and sellers are NOT what they appear to be. So with this, I would begin to shift my stop to the prior day high as I begin to think the selling may be getting to an end. My thinking is been supported by the MACD which is not doing a lower trough when price is getting lower.
The weekly chart is solidly siding with the bear. Price is below the bottom band. The MACD is negative and below its zero signal line. The Stochastic is stuck inside the oversold zone. The DMI remains negative with the D- going above 30's which mean the selling is strong. The ADX has begun to rise which may mean a new trend in formation. For any reversal to happen, we must first have the price closing back above the bottom band. Otherwise this is a bear dominated market.
As mentioned here last week, I am still harboring some vague thought that the bear may be faking it as there are subtle divergences begin to show at both the daily and weekly chart. But as I said: this does not mean one should start buying now, we need to see some upside retracement first.
FKLI - Another Bear's Signature Implanted - 7/14/2014

The market flashed another new buy signal on last Monday as price closed above the top band with a positive Stochastic. As mentioned the previous week, I do not want to get too excited over it unless it can go above its recent high convincingly. I wanted to wait for another day to see what follows and price began to come out again.

On last Wednesday price came down below the top band again and stayed below it for the next day. Both the Stochastic and MACD went negative on the following day. I decided to take the new sell trade as it is more in line with the big picture which is bearish biased. Price has now closed below the middle band which is the de facto 20 periods moving average. This is a much monitored level.
The DMI remains positive but the D- has just crossed up above the 20's signal line. That would mean the sellers have begun to flex their muscle. If we can get a negative DMI or price below the bottom band, it would be a more assuring bear scenario.

There is a hard decision to be made here as where to place the stop. Normally at above the top band should be good, but in this case, the ADX is flat and low at below the 20's signal line, I would expect some flip flops before a real directional trend will kick in. So the other logical stop would be at above the recent high. Of course that would mean risking a larger portion of the trading capital. So if your account size is not too big, I would suggest to place your stop at top band.

The daily chart's indicators have just completed a new bearish divergence on top of those formed earlier. This is telling us that whoever wanted to hold up or push up the market is fast losing their script and the moment they decide to quit, the market will collapse fast.


The weekly chart remains almost the same as the previous weeks. The MACD, Stochastic and DMI remain positive. But there are signs of deterioration as the MACD seems to be turning downward. The Stochastic remains in the overbought zone but is forming a lower peak from its last. The D+ is also doing the same as its peaks have been lower and lower. Both these 2 indicators are hinting a lack of conviction from the bull. The Japanese Candlestick is a Spinning Top. When this is found near a new high area, it means a loss of momentum and as in the subtle signals from the indicators - bull may be faking it.

I continue to be bearish biased and getting increasing more. But I still need to see price go below the bottom band in order to welcome the return of a super bear. And there is always a chance that the power players may still want to push it up again.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

四大會計師行員工登廣告 老闆聲明不代表我

2014-6-30 11:14:15
圖:陳淑莊 facebook
圖:陳淑莊 facebook
四大會計師行德勤、羅兵咸永道、安永及畢馬威於上周五在《經濟日報》等報章,刊登聯署廣告反佔中 後,署名「一群愛香港的Big4員工」,今天在《蘋果日報》直指「老闆的聲明」不代表「我們的立場」,以示對「四大」反佔中廣告 不滿。
整個廣告「黑底白紙」,雖然沒有指明回應四大會計師行早前的廣告,全文指你老闆的聲明,不代表我們的 立場」,明 顯是衝着四大會計師行的反佔中廣告而來。廣告標語、排版顯露出廣告設計者的創意,語帶雙關,既可讀成「你的聲明」、「老闆的聲 明」、「你老闆的聲明」,不代表員工的立場。
四大反對佔中的廣告,早已引起業界不滿。有四大員工上周五在電台節目上,批評四大會計師行管理層 在刊登廣告前,並無諮詢員工對佔中的看法,卻以公司名義反佔中,是騎劫員工意見,「佢憑咩嘢代表我哋幾千名員工嘅意見?」
會計界議員梁繼昌早前表示,對四大會計師事務所刊登廣告反對佔領中環行動,感到驚訝。他憂慮,任 職於該四間會計師事務所的會計師及員工,可能會感到壓力,無法自由地表達自己的政治意見。
Guardians Of The Galaxy' Soundtrack Features
Marvin Gaye, David Bowie, Jackson 5,  The Runaways & More

“I swear, I've gotten angry with filmmakers like Ridley Scott and George Lucas who can't let go of their old films and want to keep going back and offering up different versions, but I can easily see myself doing that now,” James Gunn wrote on Facebook recently about "Guardians Of The Galaxy." “This is essentially my last week of actually making 'Guardians of the Galaxy.' It's been two years straight and I've starting to become terrified of actually having to STOP.”
Admitting he's getting “teary-eyed when I think of how I won't be working with Rocket,” Gunn can rest assured that 'Guardians' will be unique and distinct among this summer's tentpoles, particularly when it comes to the soundtrack. While other studios tend to play it safe with their expensive properties when it comes to tunes—Pharrell and OK Go tuning up "The Amazing Spider-Man 2," and Imagine Dragons writing exclusive (and boring) songs for "Transformers: Age Of Extinction"—this Marvel movie is offering up a mixtape of classic jams.
And so, fans everywhere will get their latest does of Marvel-verse mayhem with the tunes of David Bowie, Jackson 5, Marvin Gaye, The Runaways and of course, Blue Swede, keeping things going. And frankly, it's nice to see a Marvel movie step away from the standard template to try something risky, whether it's the overall story, or even in the details like the songs.
The soundtrack drops on July 29th with the movie arriving on August 1st. Tracklist and samples below. [Collector's Choice Music]

"Guardians Of The Galaxy" Soundtrack Tracklisting
1. Blue Swede - Hooked on a Feeling
2. Raspberries - Go All the Way
3. Norman Greenbaum - Spirit in the Sky
4. David Bowie - Moonage Daydream
5. Elvin Bishop - Fooled Around and Fell in Love
6. 10Cc - I'm Not in Love
7. Jackson 5 - I Want You Back
8. Redbone - Come and Get Your Love
9. The Runaways - Cherry Bomb
10. Rupert Holmes - Escape (The Pina Colada Song)
11. The Five Stairsteps - O-O-H Child
12. Marvin Gaye/Tammi Terrell - Ain't No Mountain High Enough


在伊拉克北部发起大规模进攻时,推平了伊拉克与叙利亚边境上的一道土垒。这个圣战组织随即发布 了一条推特(Twitter),声称他们“粉碎了赛克斯-皮科协定”(Sykes-Picot)。这一噱头产生了奇妙的效应,重新引发了一场围绕 1916年英法秘密协定的辩论。“赛克斯-皮科协定”瓜分了崩溃的奥斯曼帝国,将其阿拉伯领土分裂成多个国家。
另一些人却说该协定是当今中东乱局的根源。在伊拉克和叙利亚行将分崩离析之际,将话题扯到根据“赛克斯-皮科 协定”人为划分的边界便具有了一定的吸引力。它为当前非同寻常的教派混乱提供了一个简单的解释,也会让两个阿拉伯国家分裂的理由少一些争议性。如 果因为殖民列强的失策,将不同种族、不同教派的团体人为集中到一起,而造成人们彼此厮杀的现象,那么分开岂不是更好?
的注意也方便掩盖近年的外来干涉,特别是2003年美国领导的入侵伊拉克行动。这场战争推翻了萨达姆•侯赛因 (Saddam Hussein)的阿拉伯复兴社会党(Ba'athist)政权,并引发了该国的教派斗争。它暗示伊拉克乱局不是10年前的错误造成的,而是早在小布什 (George W Bush)政府以前,就有人铸成这一大错。
英国外交官马克•赛克斯(Mark Sykes)和法国人弗朗索瓦-乔治•皮科(Francois-
George Picot)设计了这些边界,他们将阿拉伯领土瓜分并划入英法势力范围。的确,他们考虑更多的是一战后欧洲的利益,而不是该地区人民的利益。该协定还违背 了英国人对阿拉伯人的承诺,开启了一个殖民主义时代,该地区至今尚未完全摆脱其遗留问题。
正如研究伊拉克历史的学者赖德尔•维瑟(Reider Visser)曾指出的,赛克斯-
皮科边界的人为色彩并不如有些人认为的那么浓厚。它们符合奥斯曼帝国时期大部分行政区划,这些区划的历史就算没有几百 年,也有几十年。早在奥斯曼帝国瓦解很久以前,叙利亚和伊拉克就被认为是特定的地理存在。英法托管时期,对边界的主要抗议是针对大叙利亚被分割成 若干小国,有一部分还并入了黎巴嫩。这些分散的地理实体没有存活多久,就与大马士革一起组成了独立的叙利亚国。虽然教派暴力冲突一再爆发,但怪罪 “赛克斯-皮科协定”是罔顾事实,即领土民族主义在今天的阿拉伯国家已是根深蒂固。
这一野心并没得到广泛认同。华盛顿中东研究所(Middle East Institute)的黎巴嫩政治分析专家保罗•塞勒姆(Paul Salem)认为:“一些伊斯兰主义者呼吁建立一个伊斯兰国家,并且把他们的论点建立在纯粹的宗教和群体基础之上,这属于少数人意见。”
超越国界的阿拉伯民族主义成为主流意识。但随着阿拉伯一次又一次在阿以战争中失败,这一意识也被削弱了。就像《伊拉克: 从战争到新独裁主义》(Iraq: From War to New Authoritarianism)的作者托比•道奇(Toby Dodge)所说:“阿拉伯民族主义的幻灭,再加上油价暴涨,导致各国坚定地奉行领土民族主义”。
分割的方案不断被提起,但结束冲突靠的是新的权力分享协议,它维护了国家领土完整。在内 战最后几年,许多暴力事件都是发生在各主要教派(基督教、逊尼派穆斯林和什叶派穆斯林)内部的对立团体之间。
至少在一段时间里保持这种状况。但他们反叛的目的不在于分裂。他们发起或者和平或者暴力 的战斗,真正的意图不是为了领土,而是为了实现对国家的控制。
就是没抓住该地区真正的问题:结束殖民后的历届政府可悲地没有建立起包容的国家,以致不能 强化国家认同。中东的灾难是由叙利亚阿萨德(Assad)家族统治下的暴政、伊拉克萨达姆的独裁,以及伊拉克现任总理努里•马利基(Nouri al-Maliki)的无能共同造成的,而不是一个世纪前画在沙子上的几条线所导致的。

中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所战略研究室主任 薛力

Everything you have been reading in the local Chinese newspapers is nothing but about Japan's militarism as if Japan is definitely going to attack, invade and recolonize Asia. Not one of the writers say anything that Japan as the world's top 3 most powerful economy and a normal country as like any others need a strong military to protect their country (especially from China) . Of course the as ever China ass licking Chinese media say nothing about China's military adventurism or how many wars China had gone in after WW2.  

In every country, there are always the right and left wings(including China - Mao is extreme left, Deng is right/ USA has the right wing Neo-cons and Tea Party, the lefts have the Inconvenient Truth guy)

这一政策变化在外界的预料中。由于干系重大,有些媒体将之解释为“历史性的转折”。因此,饱 受日本侵略之苦的国家(尤其是中国、韩国、朝鲜),有充分的理由想知道:这 是否构成着日本迈向“正常国家”的重要一步?照此发展下去,日本是 否将迎来军国主义的复兴?

其中国防部的重设与军队的重建是重要标志。就二战战败国而言,意大利因为投降早,1945年居然成了战胜 国,自然有了国防部,组建的武装部队包括陆军、空军、海军与宪兵,多次参加国际维护行动并发挥领导作用,如2007年领导驻黎巴嫩维和部队。联邦 德国则在1955年恢复了国防部并组建了联邦国防军。1994年联邦宪法法院裁定国防军的防卫行动不限于德国境内。2003年德国与荷兰联手接过 了驻阿富汗国际安全部队的指挥权。
未来改名的可能性很大),其在维和行动中的作用限于为盟国供油、提供运输工具、负责 裁军复员等。2013年底首次为韩国维和部队提供子弹并因此遭到批评。
一方面拒绝对二战进行全面而彻底的反省以赢得其侵略受害国的谅解;另一方面则强调战争给日本带来的各种危害与灾 难,尤其强调自己的“原爆”唯一受害国身份,因而强调和平、不战。美国出于冷战的需要要求德国与日本均重整军备。与德国总理阿登纳的做法不同,时 任日本首相吉田茂审时度势,对此加以拒绝,确立了“安全上依靠美国、集中力量发展经济”的吉田路线,这一路线因为“吉田学校”的众多学生而得以长 期执行。
由于“五五体制”终结后的政局变幻,以及经济上经历“失去的二十年”,“国家正常 化”进展缓慢。但是,“实现国家正常化”已经成为大部分日本政治家的共识,差别在于实现正常化的途径与时机。
他迎合日本因为少子高龄化等原因导致的社会整体右倾保守化趋势,试图以“靠拢美国疏远中 国”的方式推进“正常化”进程,参拜靖国神社就是这一路线的集中表现。但他2006年9月出乎意料地自我结束了政治生涯,并选择安倍晋三为接班 人。
但自民党的弱势地位与随后民主党的崛起打断了这一进程。民主党外交上的摇摆与内政上的无所作为兼失误让老 百姓倍感失望,从而给了自民党东山再起的良机。2012年12月挟高民意支持率第二次上台的安倍因而有本钱展示:“我这次不一样了”。安倍经济学 的三支箭虽然此前只射出两支(为了强化其改革,最近才提出新的“第三支箭”议程),客观上还是产生了一些效果。2013年7月的参议院选举验证了 这一点:执政联盟虽然没能获得三分之二的多数,但席位过半,改变了“扭曲国会”,显示执政联盟依然有过半民意的支持。这给了安倍进一步推进“正常 化”的动力。因而在9月份提出“积极和平主义”,12月底为韩国维和部队提供子弹。进入2014年,基于修改宪法第九条的民意基础尚不具备,他改 变操作方式,一方面希图修改宪法第九十六条以降低修宪门槛,另一方面则通过修改宪法解释来解禁集体自卫权,并在6月底实现了对公明党的说服工作。
会继续把中国的崛起描绘成对日本的威胁,以此作为推进“国家正常化”的一大动力。 实力相对下降的美国在东亚奉行“再平衡”战略,乐见日本在安全问题上发挥更大作用,从而成为安倍推行其“正常化”政策的另一动力。
经济、教育等各个方面均服务于扩军备战和对外战争的思想和政治制度。换言之,军国主义 要求做到,一个国家的意识形态、国家制度、国家行为等方面都贯穿“以武力实现国家政策目标”。而国际环境、国家制度设计、民众意识等方面都阻止日 本再度变成军国主义国家。
北约与美日同盟是美国保持世界领导地位的两大军事支柱,美国不会允许日本摆脱同盟关系 进而成为对自己构成重大威胁的国家。美日同盟的功能包括支持日本与约束日本两个方面。
国际经济合作让日本实现了二战时通过军事手段未能实现的目标:源源不断获得原料,产品与投资进入外国市场,等等。天皇虚位制、三权分立 制度、文官制度等则从制度上防止日本恢复为二战时的军国主义国家。
大部分的日本问题研究者与观察家大概会同意:日本的军国主义教育制度已经被铲除;二战后的日本,和平主义深入人心,日本 人现在津津乐道的一点是,二战后日本自卫队迄今没有因为战争原因死亡一个人;日本政府拒绝像德国那样反思二战侵略罪行的原因有多重,但这不意味着 日本人依然好战如昔;日本的和平宪法是在美国主导下制定的,但反对修改和平宪法的力量主要来自日本国内而不是美国。
与日本关系密切的国家遭到武力攻击、从根本上对日本国民的生命和权利形成明确危险的情况下,允许日 本行使“必要最小限度”的武力。也就是说,以前日本只能在遭受侵略时予以反击,现在可以在自身未遭受侵略时动用武力。这离向海外派遣作战部队还有 一段距离。像意大利那样领导维和部队是下一步的事情,像德国那样领导国际安全部队则是下两步的事情。
不怕任何国家来侵略。这对于经历百年屈辱的中国来说,具有特殊的重要性。因此,外交部发言人洪 磊7月1日下午在记者招待会上也只是说:日本方面应切实尊重亚洲邻国的合理关切,谨慎处理有关问题,不得损害中国国家主权和安全,不得损害地区的 和平稳定。其间透露出来的信息是:对于日本的这一变化,中国注意到了,但不紧张。

Why Argentina Is Now Getting Exactly What It Deserves

Argentina has its back against a wall. On July 30 it may default on a sovereign-debt payment that could send its economy into a tailspin of rising interest rates, money printing, and inflation.
It could be the worst economic tragedy the republic has seen since 2001.
And the tragedy will be well deserved, because this is a drama of Argentina’s own making, a figment of political imagination tied closely with its history and culture. In Argentina, debt is identity, and this specific over-$1.3 billion debt in question, purchased by a group of hedge fund managers back in 2001, has hit a nerve.

Here’s what former finance minister Hernan Lorenzino said about it in 2012:

“The state has the capacity to make these payments. We have the funds available to make these payments. But fundamentally, we have the political will to continue paying as we have paid. The possibility of default does not exist in Argentina … (The rating agencies) pretend to install the idea that something is going to fail as they have been unsuccessfully for years. They will not accomplish this.”
For over a decade the country has refused to pay a group of hedge fund managers led by Elliott Management’s Paul Singer. This group, known as NML, refused to take a massive haircut on Argentine sovereign debt purchased after the country’s last crash. Argentina, in turn, refused to pay them 100 cents on the dollar and fought to continue doing so all the way to the Supreme Court. It lost.
On July 7, the republic will enter into settlement talks with a court appointed special master in New York. Its new finance minister, Axel Kicillof, will be there, supposedly to negotiate.

“We’re glad to see the press reports that Argentina has agreed to meet with the special master next week in New York,” said Jay Newman, senior portfolio manager at Elliott Management. “But engagement with the court or with creditors doesn’t have to wait another week. We’re ready to meet with Minister Kicillof during his visit to Washington, D.C., this week, and to negotiate without preconditions. We’re serious about negotiations, but we are still waiting for Argentina to engage in any dialogue with us.”
Remember … “supposedly.”

The reality is that Kicillof has been in Washington meeting with international bodies like the Organization of American States for weeks. He’s been trying to convince them that Argentina should not have to honor the clause in its bond agreement with the holdout hedge fund managers that has been the crux of this case — the pari passu clause.

This clause states that Argentina cannot favor one group of investors over another. That’s what it had been doing — paying the bondholders that restructured, and not the holdouts. Last month it tried to pay everyone except the holdouts (not the best show of faith). But the judge presiding over this case, Judge Griesa, wasn’t having it and sent the payments back to Argentina.
If some investors get paid, every investor must get paid.
To Argentina, the problem is the holdouts are not investors — they’re “vultures.” They bought the republic’s debt after its 2001 default, which President Cristina Fernandez argues shows that they only meant to speculate with it.

Fernandez said as much in her speech after the Supreme Court decided against the republic. On a live 30-minute broadcast she walked her nation through a history lesson.

She told the story of 1976, the first time international debt turned to inflation. It was, she said, “without a doubt the most powerful trap we’d been in keeping us from growth, the development of Argentina, it created poverty, backwardness, homelessness, a lack of infrastructural development, investment in education, in science … “
Since then, Argentine politicians have associated speculators with their worst national nightmares. They are the lowest of the low and, as such, deserve no respect.

“This was a political decision leaders had made,” bankruptcy expert William A. Brandt, CEO of Development Specialists Inc., a firm specializing in turnarounds, told Business Insider in 2012. “Argentina is an incredibly sophisticated economy and brought this problem on itself by doing the unthinkable and defaulting on its debt.”

In that same speech, Fernandez said that paying the holdouts could bring similar claims out of the woodwork — claims to the tune of $15 billion — which would wipe out half of the country’s dollar reserves.

Still, some contest that argument. In a note, debt specialist Josh Rosner of GrahamFisher said that even if that is true (if) Argentina could still manage the $15 billion:

“Argentina has ignored the reality that even if that $15 billion number was correct and the creditors unwilling to negotiate a payment formula that was acceptable to both parties, the government would still be able to manage the increased debt burden as a percent of GDP. Moreover, late last year, at least one Wall Street firm offered to raise the full $15 billion that the government claims it owes. If the government chose to raise capital as a means of resolving this impasse, it would normalize its relations with the international capital markets, reduce its cost of funds going forward and immediately begin to attract the foreign investment necessary to develop key industries, including its energy sector and the broader economy.”

The other argument Argentina has used to avoid payment is to say that this sets a dangerous precedent for investors in sovereign debt. If investors can avoid haircuts by refusing to restructure, why would they ever?

Argentina’s refusal to pay the holdouts has thrown the entire sovereign-debt system into question.

None of this is to say that Paul Singer and his crew have not been aggressive, sparking a sort of PTSD in the Argentine psyche. NML has used the law to go after Argentine assets all over the world, at one point getting a Ghanaian court to impound an Argentine naval vessel as collateral.

But that doesn’t make the country’s intransigence right. The tone of its politicians has crossed the line into hysterical territory. One of President Fernandez’s deputies, Carlos Kunkel, told the Argentine press that he was convinced that Judge Griesa — the man who handed down the ruling that the country must pay — is forcing negotiations because he’ll get a cut of the payout.

Would you want to lend this country money?

新疆穆斯林师生及公务员斋月被禁封斋 -


          pose for photos in front of a portrait of Mao Zedong in
          Beijing on March 3, 2013
中国新疆地方政府下令禁止政府部门的穆斯林公务员和师生封斋,海外流亡维吾尔人团体称这将导致更多冲突, 并呼吁中国当局保护维族的宗教自由。





流亡海外的世界维吾尔大会(世维会)发言人迪里夏提表示,强迫穆斯林不封斋,而且还上 门检查是否偷偷封斋,这种做法将触发更多冲突。



新疆气象局喀什分局同民族职工和退休职工还签定了《斋月期间宗教目标管理责任书》,要 求全体职工一律不得封斋。

博州电大在自己网站公布禁止党员干部、教师和学生封斋,并在周一组织在职和退休的维吾尔、哈萨克、回族和乌兹别克族等信奉伊斯兰教的老师参 加禁止封斋的“宣传教育活动”。

    Uighurs are ethnically Turkic Muslims
    They make up about 45% of the region's population; 40% are Han Chinese
    China re-established control in 1949 after crushing short-lived state of East Turkestan
    Since then, there has been large-scale immigration of Han Chinese
    Uighurs fear erosion of traditional culture


李显龙: 未“日落西山” 中国不应低估美国

Japanese made the same mistake and underestimated US strength and attacked Pearl harbor. The Soviets did it over and over again during the Cold War and had themselves disintegrated. The Islamic Facists thought so and staged 911 and they pay the price. China thinks Americans and their leaders are weak, unwilling to go to war is making the same mistake now.

    李显龙上周在访美期间接受当地具影响力的政治媒体“Politico”主编格拉瑟(Susan Glasser)的专访。



他说,许多人可能没有发现美国的韧性有多强。他们 认为在环球金融危机后,美国已经日落西山,也预期新势力的崛起。

“但我有机会时会告诉他们事实不然,美国是个深具韧性的国家,具有无穷的精力、创 意和动力,而它必将触底回升。”



同时,李显龙指出,在中国也存在一种观点,认为美国正尝试限制和阻挠其崛起,但他不认为美国会这么做,因为亚洲国家都要与中国合作,并把握中 国提供的机会,与之共同繁荣。




根据总理新闻秘书提供给本地媒体的英文访谈记录,李显龙形容,中美关系相互依赖,中国是美国最大的贸易伙伴,购买了许多美国政府债券;与此同 时,美国是中国的科技和新概念来源,也是许多中国有为青年求学的目的地。

“中美关系存在许多正面元素,当双方遇到困难,无论是(区域的)领土和海事纠纷、兑换率或人权问题,都须以不将这段关系导向错误方向的方法善 加处理。”

从国际角度看,李显龙认为,中国一方面要捍卫他们视为合理的自身利益,但同时也了解到依靠强权而非其他国家的认同,长远将不利于中国和世界, 因此在寻找平衡。




英国《金融时报》 吉密欧

《拨开中国经济数据迷雾:如何理解和使用中 国的统计 数据》(Myth-Busting China’s Numbers: Understanding and using China’s statistics),马修•克拉布(Matthew Crabbe)著,Palgrave Macmillan出版,建议零售价:14.99英镑/24美元

尽管拥有13.6亿人口和世界第二大经济规模,但中国总能在每季度结束后短短两周的时间里收集、审核并公布季度国内生产总值(GDP)数 据,之后从不修正。



就连中国总理李克强也称中国的经 济统计数据是“人造”的并建议使用用电量、银行贷款和货运量等不易被操纵的指标,来估算真正的 经济增长率。
20多年来,马修•克拉布一直试图理解中国令人迷惑且往往自相矛盾的统计数据。他的这本著作是一本实用的入门读本,介绍了这些统计数据的问 题以及理解中国经济数据的方法。


他指出的第一点、也是最重要的一点是:在中国的列宁主义体制中,所有信息都与政治有 关,只要执政的共产党认定信息无助于巩固它的合法性和权力,便可随时将其划为“国家机密”。




最说明问题的一个案例是他2006年私下进行的一项深度调查,论是中国零售市 场当时的实际规模约为北京公布数字的一半。


鉴于世界各地充斥着大量有关中国的劣质信息和分析,克拉布的著作不失时机地敲响了一记警钟:任何人如要透彻了解这个经济规模堪比一个大洲的 国家,都应当引以为戒。


不过,本书部分篇幅的编辑仍不够严谨,缺乏价值的数据图表太多。另一个小问题是,克拉布论点的证据主要引自2013年,因此本书在出版之前 便已经有些过时了。


但总体而言,这是一本实用、有益的书,工作以理解中国这个世界人口第一大国家为基础的跨国企业高管、分析师和战略师,均应将其作为必读书 目。


FCPO - How Real Are The Selling ? -7/7/2014

The new sell signal flashed on the previous Friday became good on last Monday when price went below the signal day low. I went in and sold and now will place my stop above the middle band. After pausing for anew days, price has gone below the bottom band on last Friday. This may mean price is getting on another round of selling.
The MACD manages to stay positive though it has been turning downward. The Stochastic continues to slide downward, it has just crossed below the 50's signal line which may bring more sellers out. The DMI stays negative with the ADX goes flat at 20's. The flat ADX reflects the lack of intensity in the market.



The weekly chart previous week's Japanese long top shadow line Candlestick forewarned the current market's fall correctly. Price went below the past week's low. The MACD continues to slide. The Stochastic is still inside the oversold zone but there is no buy signal yet. The DMI stays negative with the D- whipping up . This means the sellers have been getting wild again.
But as I mentioned last week that I have been harboring some vague bullish thoughts on this market. The weekly Stochastic has been getting interesting as price is coming down but the indicator is not. instead it is going higher. I would take this as an encouraging sign the sellers may be faking it this round. But of course, this does not mean you can go start buying now as the sell signal at the daily chart is not done yet. I would need to see it crossing up above the 20's signal line to get really excited.
FKLI - Market Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet - 7/7/2014


A new sell signal came along on last Monday when price went below the top band with the Stochastic crossing down its 80's signal line. And the signal was made good on the next day when price went below the signal day low. But the trade quickly went sour as price went back above the top band on Wednesday and hit my stop. There is no new buy signal after that. Though price went and stayed above the top band but the Stochastic has failed to compliment. By last Friday price has again came back below the top band.

The MACD remains positive but seems to getting ready to cross down again. The Stochastic stays negative. The DMI is still positive with the ADX rising. But since it is still below the 20's signal line, I would just keep an eye on it . Until price can break above the 1897 resistance convincingly , I would not get too excited about the next buy signal.

Both the MACD and Stochastic has formed another new negative divergence.

The weekly chart has not changed much from that of the previous week. The MACD, Stochastic and DMI remain positive. The Stochastic is inside the overbought zone and since the ADX is at a lowly 17's level, so I would continue to place greater weight on the Stochastic. The Japanese Candlestick is another small body candlestick which usually mean a market indecision. So I would watch out for a possible reversal.