Sunday, August 31, 2014

Islamic State Supporters Vow to 'Take Back' Spain


A photo of an Islamic State supporter
        holding the IS black flag of jihad in front of Aljafería Palace
        in Zaragoza. The image was tweeted on social media.
A photo of an Islamic State supporter holding the IS black flag of jihad in front of Aljafería Palace in Zaragoza. The image was tweeted on social media.
Radical Muslims in Spain have launched a social media campaign aimed at generating support for the jihadist group Islamic State [IS].
The campaign involves posters that include images of famous Spanish landmarks and monuments emblazoned with Arabic slogans such as, "We are all the Islamic State" and "Long Live the Islamic State."
One poster includes an image of the medieval Islamic Aljafería Palace in the Spanish city of Zaragoza and the black flag associated with the IS. Another uses an image of the famous La Concha beach in the Basque city of San Sebastián. Yet another includes an image of the statue of Jesus Christ on Monte Urgull in San Sebastián, with the Arabic words "Al-Andalus Country" instead of "Basque Country."

Al-Andalus is the Arabic name given to those parts of Spain, Portugal and France that were occupied by Muslim conquerors (also known as the Moors) from 711 to 1492. As the Basque Country is surrounded by mountains, however, the Moors never succeeded in occupying it.
The poster campaign comes after IS jihadists produced a video in which they vow to liberate al-Andalus from non-Muslims and make it part of their new Islamic Caliphate.
The video shows a jihadist speaking in Spanish with a heavy North African accent. He says:
"I say to the entire world as a warning: We are living under the Islamic flag, the Islamic caliphate. We will die for it until we liberate those occupied lands, from Jakarta to Andalusia. And I declare: Spain is the land of our forefathers and we are going to take it back with the power of Allah."
Radical Muslims (and many moderate Muslims) believe that all territories Muslims lost during the Christian Reconquista of Spain still belong to the realm of Islam. They claim that Islamic law gives them the right to return there and re-establish Muslim rule.
In recent years, the return of "occupied" Al-Andalus to the fold of Islam has become an obsession for Muslims of all stripes, and calls to reconquer al-Andalus have become more frequent and more strident.
Commenting on the latest video, Spain's Secretary of State for Security, Francisco Martínez, said Spanish police were remaining "vigilant" in the face of a "grave" jihadist threat.
Meanwhile, Moroccan authorities have warned Spanish police that some of the more than 3,000 Moroccan jihadists fighting in Syria and Iraq are beginning to return home, and that many of them are likely to attempt to infiltrate the Spanish mainland via the North African Spanish exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.
The Moroccan Interior Minister, Mohamed Hassad, recently identified 1,221 Moroccan citizens who have joined jihadists groups in Syria and Iraq, as well as another 2,000 ethnic Moroccans who are citizens of other countries, including Spain.
Spanish and Moroccan counter-terrorism forces have stepped-up efforts to break up jihadist cells that have been proliferating in both countries.
On August 14, nine members of a recruitment cell for the IS were arrested in northern Morocco, not far from the North African Spanish exclave of Ceuta.
The arrests were made in the Moroccan cities of Fez, Tétouan and Fnideq, in what the Spanish Interior Ministry said was a joint intelligence operation between Moroccan and Spanish counter-terrorism police.
All the detainees are Moroccan citizens, several of whom made repeated trips to Ceuta to recruit jihadists and raise financial support for the IS.
"The jihadists recruited by the cell received instruction in weapons handling, assembly and placement of explosive devices and car theft, in order to participate in suicide terrorist attacks or to fight in conflict zones," a statement by the Spanish Interior Ministry reported.
Some of those recruited by the cell are believed to have participated in beheadings in Syria and Iraq. Police say they are also examining computers and data storage devices to determine if there were plans to carry out a terror attack on Moroccan soil.
On August 4, a 19-year-old Spanish woman and a 14-year-old Spanish girl were arrested in Melilla just days before they were due to join the jihad in Syria. They are first Spanish females to be prevented from becoming jihadists.
"Both were trying to cross the border to Morocco with the aim of contacting the network that would move them immediately to a conflict zone between Syria and Iraq," the Spanish Interior Ministry said in a statement.
The 19-year-old was released after surrendering her passport. The 14-year-old—who police say appeared "completely convinced" that she was doing the right thing by becoming a jihadist—is currently being held in a juvenile detention center where she has no access to the Internet. The girl's parents said she had recently become radicalized after spending time perusing jihadist websites.
In June, Spanish police in Madrid arrested ten individuals (eight Moroccans, one Argentine and one Bulgarian) on allegations that they were members of an international network that recruited jihadists for the IS.
The ringleader was a 47-year-old Moroccan national named Lahcen Ikassrien, who was arrested in Afghanistan in 2001, and released after three-and-a-half years in Guantánamo. In July 2005, the U.S. government handed him over to Spain, where he faced charges of cooperating with al-Qaeda. In October 2006, the Spanish High Court acquitted him on the grounds that no firm evidence existed of his ties to the terrorist group.
Ikassrien, who lives in Madrid, was part of a cell led by Abu Dahdah, a Syrian-born Spaniard sentenced to a 27-year prison term in Spain for his part in the September 11, 2001 attacks, and for being one of the founders of al-Qaeda in Spain. In February 2006, the Spanish Supreme Court reduced the Abu Dahdah's penalty to 12 years because it said that his participation in the 9/11 conspiracy was not proven. He was released in May 2013.
In May, Spanish police broke up a cell in Melilla that allegedly recruited 26 jihadists (24 Moroccans and 2 Spaniards) for al-Qaeda groups fighting in Libya and Mali. All six members of the cell are Spanish citizens. One of them, Benaissa Laghmouchi Baghdadi, is the first Spanish jihadist known to have returned from the fighting in Mali. Police say the cell used social media platforms such as "Sharia4Spain" to recruit jihadists.
"Clearly Spain forms part of the strategic objectives of global jihad," Fernández Díaz said on the eve of the anniversary. "We are not the only ones but we are in their sights."
In March, police in Spain and Morocco arrested seven suspected jihadists who belonged to cell operating in the southern Spanish city of Málaga. Four of the suspects were arrested in Spain and the other three in Morocco. Spanish officials said the cell was one of the largest of its kind in Europe and responsible for recruiting more jihadists than any other network discovered in Spain so far.
The suspected ringleader of the cell is a wheelchair-bound Spanish convert to Islam named Mustafa Maya Amaya. Maya, 51, was born in Brussels after his Spanish parents moved to Belgium in the 1960s to look for work there. After converting to Islam, he changed his given name from Rafael to Mustafa.
Police say Maya—who maintained close ties to jihadist cells in Belgium, France, Indonesia, Libya, Mali, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey and Syria—is suspected of recruiting dozens of volunteer jihadists on the Internet and, after a careful selection process, sending them to join terrorist organizations in the Middle East and North Africa.
The sting operation was conducted on March 14, just three days after Spain marked the 10th anniversary of the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which killed 191 people and wounded nearly 2,000. Since then, more than 470 suspected Islamic extremists have been arrested in Spain, according to Spanish Interior Minister Jorge Fernández Díaz.

张仰荣预测大马或重演金融危机 短期内勿投资房产


  • 张 仰荣:屋价有如金价及股价,会涨也会跌。

(八打灵再也11日讯)正当人们纷纷看好房产领域前景,认为 目前是投资房产的最佳时机,赞美主公司特许调查及调解 人张仰荣博士提出警告,指大马最近一两年将重演1997年亚洲 金融危机,建议人们在3至5年内最好不要投资房产。
他预测,我国将在2015年至2016年重演1997年亚洲 金融危机,这次灾情将比1997年严重。
“1997年,欧美经济并不受影响,我们仍然可以出口,但现 在欧美经济也放缓,因此这次将比当年更严重。”
他说,目前房地产领域就如“仅剩一格油的火箭”,需求已逐渐 放缓。
年轻人没能力负担
“现在的年轻人不会想买屋,因为根本没有能力负担。
“即使有能力购买屋子,也没法每个月定期偿还房贷,反之,选 择还一个月,停两个月,因为若连续3个月没还,将被列入不良贷款(NPL),唯有用这种方式偿还房贷。”
张仰荣今天在全国房产投资峰会上说,除非有多余的钱,否则绝 对不应向银行贷款投资房产。
“购买房产可分为3项目的;自己住、投资、投机。若是自己 住,又有能力负担便可购买,若为了投资或投机,我奉劝你不要购买。”
他也劝发展商在未来12个月重新规划业务,把重心放在租借, 勿再进行新项目。
可考虑加叻大道邻近房产
张仰荣指出,若有余钱想投资房产,可以考虑加叻大道附近地 区,文冬、劳勿都是不错的选择。
“不要再妄想购买城市房产,上述地点在未来都有发展潜能。”
他说,无可否认,房产仍然是个前景看俏的领域,但不能期望一 夜致富。
5年内房产将跌价
“就长期而言,房产仍然是一项好投资,无论如何,未来3至5 年房产价格将下跌。”张仰荣也不认为赛城及依斯干达特区是值得投资的地点。
“一个值得投资的地点必须拥有就业机会,赛城的人口并不足够 支撑屋价。
“依斯干达特区主要买家是新加坡人,那里是他们的‘周末 家’,星期日很多房子都空置。”
银行提高房贷顶限 致房屋需求量激增
屋价高涨,银行、父母、发展商、房产代理及卖家都必须负责!
张仰荣说,银行不断提高房贷顶限,从1960年代的60%提 高至目前的90%。
“贷款额越高,偿还期限也更长,若发生意外,下一代必须背负 这笔贷款。”
他说,银行调高贷款额也导致房屋需求量激增,当供不应求时, 发展商就会开提高屋价。
他说,发展商为了赚取更高利润,将工程分阶段推出,而每个阶 段的价格也跟着调涨。
“事实上,每个阶段推出的工程成本都相同,发展商只为了赚取 更高的利润。”
此外,他说一些代理向卖家保证可以以更高价格出售房产,而贪 心的卖家往往也倾向更高的回筹,这些都是造成屋价攀升的原因。
他说,就目前的屋价而言,即使父母有能力为孩子支付屋子头 期,孩子也未必有能力供。
“家长们必须用脑思考,而非用心思考,如果你的孩子没有能力 偿还每个月的房贷,请不要帮他们支付头期。”
80%人民没能力购屋
屋价居高不下,目前大马80%人民没能力购买屋子。
张仰荣赞美主公司特许调查及调解人张仰荣博士说,这是大马房 产领域目前面对的困境。
他说,约70%至80%大马人民收入介于5000令吉或以 下,此中阶层人士只有能力负担约1000令吉的房贷分期付款。
“以每个月1000令吉的房贷,30年分期付款计算,他们只 有能力负担18万至20万令吉的屋子。”
他分析,高收入群(月入1万4000令吉)每月有能力负担 2960令吉房贷、中等收入群(月入8000令吉)每月可负担1720令吉,而低收入群(3000令吉)只有520令吉可支付房 贷。
90%家庭收入低于万四元
“我国有90%家庭收入低于1万4000令吉、70%收入少 于5000令吉,60%收入少于3000令吉。”
他说,55万令吉的房子只有家庭收入1万4000令吉才能负 担,我国屋价人民还负担得起吗?
屋价会涨也会降 年轻人不急置产
张仰荣驳斥屋价只涨不跌的说法。
他今日出席全国房产投资大会主讲“大马房产领域困境”时说, “屋价与股价及金价一样,会涨也会降。”
他呼吁35岁以下的年轻人不需急着购买屋子。
“很多人都说现在不买以后更无法负担,事实上,大马正步向 1997年亚洲金融危机情况。
“当时,屋价降了50%,如今金融危机已经近在眉头,千万别 急着买屋。”
按基础建设寻房产“热点”
何振顺研究有限公司创办人何振顺说,国人只要根据基建及高速 道路的兴建情况按图索骥,即可找到所谓的房地产“热点”。
他以巴生谷为例,指所谓的基础建设包括大吉隆坡计划、100 层独立世代大楼、敦拉萨国际贸易中心、捷运计划、轻快铁延长线、吉隆坡至新加坡的高铁计划及巴生谷数条即将兴建的高速大道等。
他今天主讲“房地产热点”时说,比起日本,大马仍属年轻国 家,一旦年轻人成家立业,自然需要购买房子,所以国内房地产业的发展没问题。
他说,人们物色地理位置优越的房地产时,还可参考白沙罗-莎 阿南多层次大道(DASH)计划、金銮镇-白沙罗(KIDEX)大道、沙登-金銮镇-布城大道(SKIP)及新街场-淡江高架大 道(SUKE)等大道的路线。
“未来6至7年,预计将有3条大道即将竣工……我们可以想象 届时将是怎样的情况。”
【全国房产投资峰会】
中國洗錢秘道 - 丈夫受贿妻洗钱 贪官捲走4千亿

  

中国人民银行(中国央行,简称人行)副行长李东荣日前主持会议时,要求做好反洗钱工作;央行反洗钱局在会议中揭露「丈夫受贿、妻子洗钱」的家族式 犯案。

为瞭解今年的洗钱威胁、风险与类型趋势,人行反洗钱局负责人列出4大洗钱特征,如较隱密、但常见的「透过亲属洗钱」,操作手法是帮助在境外的亲属 洗钱,也有丈夫受贿、妻子洗钱的案例,体现「家庭腐败」典型模式。

其次是利用网络银行及现金业务洗钱。目前中国金融服务日益便利,各种金融產品层出不穷,这些都可能被洗钱分子用作洗钱工具。

中国中央电视台上月初才揭露,中国银行( 简称中行) 有员工利用「优匯通」为客户无限额兑换外匯的管道,让大量不明资金流出,公然造假洗黑钱。人行及中国国家外匯局已介入调查。

中行遭指助洗钱

加拿大《星岛日报》引述央视报导指,中行与移民仲介勾结,为客户 无限额换取外匯,再匯到国外,估计通过这个方式匯出的资金逾300亿元人民幣(153亿令吉)。


「优匯通」是中行的跨境转帐產品,中国客户在境外购屋、偿还房贷、投资移民的指定用途下,可不受每人每年5万美元(约16万令吉)额度的外匯管 制。

中行北京一家支行经理表示,「优匯通」一宗业务就达3000万元人民幣(约1 5 3 0万令吉)。中行广东越秀支行更指,开展优匯通业务一年多,业务量已达60亿元人民幣(约30亿6000万令吉)。

「优匯通」业务由中行广东分行牵头,各地中行经广东分行操作。有工作人员透露:「你要在广东分行开个户口,但你不用过去,我们帮你搞。」更有中行 人员在报导中表明:「不管钱有多黑,都有办法漂白。」

但中行否认央视指控,並声明开展业务时符合监管要求,包括禁止洗钱的规定。

暂停跨境匯款

知情人士说,目前中行、中国工商银行和中信银行等大型商银,已暂停让中国人民办理人民幣跨境匯款的业务。多数观察家认为,许多大行暂停业务,等同 于宣告中国推进金融改革受挫。但据业內人士指,这只是暂时性的。

美国《华尔街日报》指出, 这起爭议事件在政治敏感时期发生。目前,中国高层正深化全国性反腐行动,尤其是那些企图涉嫌將收受贿赂和其他非法手段获得的资產,转移到海外的官员。

此前,人行曾于2008年发布相关报告指出,自1990年代以来,多达1万8000名贪官与 国企员工逃到海外藏匿,共涉嫌捲走1230亿美元(3874亿5000万令吉)资金,且大多是移民亲属协助转移资 金。中共中央政治局常委、负责宣传机构的刘云山,也因此呼吁政府,应调整清理「裸官」(家属已移居海外的官员)问题。

移民大军中的裸官和裸商

中国公安部上月宣布启动「猎狐2014」专案,全面缉捕逃往境外的经济犯。华商移民网报导, 截至2013年,中国海外移民高达930万人,当中潜藏大量的「裸官」和「裸商」。

报导指,裸官可简单理解为,配偶和子女都在海外,自己留在国內生活的官员。当然,裸官並非都跟贪腐划等號,但综观这些年披露的裸官案件,贪腐是裸 官的一大特征,而外逃贪官中就有相当一部分是裸官,其腐败路径通常是:非法敛財、家属移民海外、转移不明资產、择机外逃。

这些裸官给国家带来了巨大的经济损失。据有关部门透露,近30年来,中国裸 官外逃官员数量约为4000人,携走资金约500多亿美元(约1575亿令吉),算起来人均捲走约1亿元人民幣(约5100万令 吉)。

而裸商指的则是通过投资移民方式,將资產和家庭转移出境,自己仍在国內经营企业。他们大多「移民不移居」,中国不少成功商人和民营企业家都拥有外籍身份。

一份研究报告显示,2万名拥有可投资资產超过1亿元人民幣的中国富人中,有27%的富人已经 移民,另有47%的人正在考虑移民。

从移民起步价来看, 要办理移民,少则250多万元人民幣(超过127万令吉),多则2 9 0 0多万元人民幣(约1480万令吉),而中国规定的个人换匯额度是每年不超过5万美元(15万7500令吉)。在政府维持严格外匯管制的情况下,仍有如此巨额的私人资本流向海外,令人瞠目结舌。

占发展中国家非法资金外流榜首

发展中国家需要大量资金去解决它们面临的很多问题,比如医疗、住房、教育等等。但根据2013年报告指,跨国公司、这些公司在政府的代言人和其他 一些角色的腐败行为,剥夺了人民获得更好生活的机会。

位于华盛顿的金融监督组织全球金融诚信(Global Financial Integrity)称,每年从非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲国家流出的资金数目惊人。

该组织去年12月发佈的《发展中国家非法资金流出:2002-2011》报告指,在这10年间,从发展中国家流出的资金高达5兆9000万亿美元 (18兆5850亿令吉),中国因逃税、腐败和犯罪等而產生的非法资金外流约为1兆756亿 美元(3兆3881亿令吉),约佔全球份额的1/6,是全球非法资金外流最多的国家,其后为俄 罗斯、墨西哥及马来西亚

该组织主任贝克说,解决非法资金外流的简单方法是提高透明度,提高全球金融体系的透明度,消除虚假企业、交换跨境税务信息,以及跨国公司自动公佈 它们所在各个司法管辖区內的销售、利润和税收信
FCPO - Mother of All Bears ? -9/1/2014




Despite all the oversold signals , market kicked whatever buyers that remain standing in their face again on last Friday with another new low. I sold again when price went below its recent low of 1954. As in my last sell trade, this is not a very prudent sell signal but I am merely trying out on my "luck", so I will keep a tight stop at above the bottom band and later at the prior day high.

The trend class indicators like MACD and DMI remain negative . The MACD did not have a care in the world and just keep falling further . The D- has whipped outward confirming the power of sellers. The ADX found new strength and rises again to 62's. I am still sticking to my earlier reading that this market is grossly oversold as both the ADX and D- are now in extremity level that the market may reverse suddenly. The Stochastic should be interesting to follow closely from here, though price has reached another new low, it has not followed so. So if it can hold for the next few days without falling much, it could be trying to tell me something.



 

 At the weekly chart, nobody should try to take side with the bull. The MACD continues its free fall. The DMI is whipping out like it has gone crazy. The D- is now at 47's and even the ADX has now risen to 32's. The Stochastic may be in its oversold zone, but it has not be able to fight back a bit as it continue to lay submissively there.

 
The monthly chart has turned really nasty as price is confirmed previous month sell signal when price closed below the bottom band by going below the signal month low. The MACD has just turned negative and it is below the zeros signal line. The Stochastic continues to fall and it has gone below the 50's signal line which is even more bearish. The D- has now risen above the 30's line which confirms the strong selling. The ADX has finally begun to rise which indicates  beginning of a new trend. Unless price can manage to close back above the bottom band, the monthly chart is really offering another nasty piece of confirmation for the selling.

The current monstrous bear market for the FCPO would mean a huge losses to the government's revenue and growers' income. It is really not a comforting picture for the country. I am beginning to think would this market bears help to bring out the bear in FKLI ?
FKLI - It Is Going Sideway But Watchout What Is Coming - 9/1/2014





The market flashed another buy signal again on last Wednesday when price broke up above the top band. But that signal was not confirmed when price failed to go higher on the following day. Instead a new sell signal came out on last Friday when price went below the top band with the Stochastic turning negative. I would sell on the coming week when if price can go below 1860. The MACD remains positive while the DMI has turned negative. But please take note the DMI has been turning positive and negative for the past few days within the 20's and 30's horizontal trench without going higher or lower. With the ADX now fallen to below the 20's level, these are confirming a listless market mode.

With this, I would expect some of the coming trading signals may be false breaks and render most trades unprofitable.



 
The weekly chart is same as that of the daily chart, the ADX has begun falling again. As it is now at 15's, this is another classic sign that the market is in a listless mode. This is further conformed by a tightening Bollinger Band. All the 3 indicators remain negative. The D- has been declining which mean the sellers are leaving but the D+ has not been rising and this mean the buyers are sitting aside. Both type of players remain undecided on their course of action. If I am trading the weekly chart, I would sell if price goes below 1855.


 
At the monthly chart, price has now closed below the top band, this is the first time it has done so since August, 2013. With this I have both the Stochastic and MACD turning negative to compliment it. I would like see the Stochastic crossing below the 80's signal line for a better confirmation. The MACD is also relatively "far" above its zero signal line to confirm a reliable sell signal. The DMI stays positive with the ADX continues to stay flat. The ADX has been flat since December 2013 which explain the lack of a big move since that time onward.

Overall the big picture has been telling me that there is a big ugly bear lurking around the corner in this market. There is bearish divergence successfully formed at all the 3 time parameter charts. In my opinion, this means we are near a major terminal point of the cycle that we may experience a really nasty sell down soon. On the fundamental sides, I think you should keep an close watch on our bank interest hikes. Traditionally this is the kind of thing that "kill" the property market first. And you know our property market has been snoozing so much cocaine for the past few years  that it is no longer able to grasp with reality. When property loans begin to go bust, they will hurt the banks and the banks will go hurt the the ordinary businesses.

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Russian Meat Importer To Europe: ‘Winter Is Coming’


The ordinary Russians are furious that their government has imposed bans on Western food imports.

Not everyone is so glum.

The FT’s Courtney Weaver and Kathrin Hille talked to the CEO of one Russian meat importing firm who said she relished the opportunity for her country hit back at the West, even though her company was going to get hit.
“If someone is beating you like a piñata, are you just going to be quiet?…The ban on imports is only the beginning. Winter is coming. We’ll see who is the last one laughing then. Let Europe pay.”
Not all of Europe is going to pay equally, however.
Bloomberg’s Mark Whitehouse published a chart Friday showing that the meat exec may be disappointed if she thinks will have much reach beyond economies near Russia. Here are the countries ranked by targeted goods as a share of GDP.

russia
          sanctions bloomberg
As the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, Russian sanctions now target goods worth $8.7 billion, an insignificant amount on the scale of the E.U.’s $18 trillion and America’s $16 trillion economy.

“…If Putin wants to hurt the likes of the U.S. and Germany, he’s missing his target,” Whitehouse writes. “If he wants to reprimand his eastern European neighbors for joining the West, he has chosen a more appropriate weapon.”

Writing China: James Jiann Hua To, ‘Qiaowu侨务: Extra-Territorial Policies for the Overseas Chinese’


Tourists read Chinese newspapers on the banks of the Main River in Frankfurt, Germany.

One of the greatest movements of people in history  is under way: travel out of China by vast numbers of students, business executives and tourists. More than 100 million crossed the border last year.
Everywhere they go, they will be shadowed by the Leninist state they leave behind. The Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council is in charge of ensuring their loyalty to China and the Communist Party. Their activities are known as qiaowu.
James Jiann Hua To, a New Zealand political scientist, is a foremost authority on China’s efforts to shepherd its overseas Chinese – the “thousand grains of sand.” He is the author of “Qiaowu: Extra-Territorial Policies for the Overseas Chinese.” China Real Time’s Andrew Browne spoke with him by email. Edited excerpts:
What’s the definition of qiaowu?
The purpose of qiaowu is to rally support for Beijing amongst ethnic Chinese outside of China through various propaganda and thought-management techniques. For the vast majority of the 48 million overseas Chinese around the world, many will be oblivious to qiaowu and its activity. The main target groups are those who are open to and even welcome receiving qiaowu and closer links to China and its foreign service, such as newer migrants or PRC students abroad.
How is qiaowu playing out amid the enormous increase in Chinese outbound tourism, emigration and study?
Brill
Firstly, a clear distinction must be made between Chinese nationals going and living overseas, and ethnic Chinese overseas. Beijing is very careful to ensure that it is not seen as interfering in foreign matters by way of a fifth column. However, because qiaowu work is so broad in scope, all ethnic Chinese are potential subjects of interest, and the distinction becomes quite blurred.
The PRC has the capability to monitor overseas Chinese affairs throughout the world – in particular matters concerning anti-Chinese sentiment or natural disaster. Moreover, Beijing has publicly stated it is prepared to go “all out” to protect overseas Chinese from racism, harassment and damage to property.
How does China seek to influence Chinese-language media and cultural activities abroad?
For decades, the CCP has used newspapers, radio, television and other media sources to influence the perceptions and behaviors of overseas Chinese. Beijing’s main objective is to encourage reunification, stimulate nationalist pride and to oppose anti-[Chinese Communist Party] movements. However, Beijing is very careful not to appear as if it is interfering.
While mostly successful with new migrants and Chinese students abroad who may already have pro-Beijing sentiments, this kind of work has little or no influence on well-established ethnic Chinese already grounded with foreign values. However, Beijing actively seeks to guide the way in which traditional festivals are celebrated by offering free decorations and cultural resources, stoking ancestral sentimentality and showcasing China’s rise on the international scene.
How China Keeps Its Citizens Loyal Overseas

A recent report showed that 64% of China's rich are either migrating overseas or have plans to leave the country. Political scientist James To, who has written a book on the subject, tells the WSJ's Deborah Kan how the Chinese government is using propaganda campaigns abroad to ensure loyalty from overseas Chinese.
Could this collide with democratic values in host societies like the U.S., Australia and New Zealand?
With Beijing’s increased influence in Chinese cultural and media circles, alternative interpretations of ‘Chineseness’ find themselves sidelined. In countries where freedom of speech and independent thought are highly valued, qiaowu has worked in a way such that overseas Chinese themselves are self-censoring to maintain warm relations with Beijing so as not to jeopardize access to its resources and economic opportunities.
Is the growing debate over Confucius Institutes a sign of things to come?
The Confucius Institute program is China’s foremost public diplomacy and cultural outreach effort. Its long-term objective is to gather a wide spectrum of support for China to influence the development of host-country foreign policy so it is favorable to Beijing. Institutes actively promote putonghua Mandarin, not other dialects such as Cantonese, simplified characters and pinyin pronunciation.
A CCP-derived interpretation of what it means to be Chinese is the sign of things to come for overseas Chinese communities, unless they actively work to preserve their uniqueness.
How will China’s mission to protect Chinese nationals abroad influence its global security posture?
As Chinese investment abroad grows, Beijing might consider naval diplomacy or military protection to oversee assets under overseas Chinese control, or intervene when overseas Chinese are in trouble. For example, it has advocated dispatching PRC police officers to assist investigations following attacks on overseas Chinese.
China desires acceptance in the international community and refrains from anything that might be perceived as aggressive behavior. For example, it has been hesitant to send in uniformed assistance; it has chartered commercial airplanes instead of sending military aircraft; and military vessels are dispatched as goodwill naval visits.
Will the issue of Chinese national loyalties in Southeast Asia resurface?
In the 1980s the Singapore government sought to disempower the ethnic Chinese elite and their links with China by preserving only the politically inoffensive cultural aspects of various overseas Chinese clan associations. In the early 1990s, Lee Kuan Yew expressed his fear of potential racial discord should overseas Chinese respond to Beijing’s line of a common Chinese culture.
While support for Beijing is most evident amongst new migrant groups and PRC students studying abroad, most ethnic Chinese who have resided in their host countries (many for generations) have little inclination to support Beijing. The problem is that locals may not be able to distinguish between these very different groups, and hence all ethnic Chinese become tarred with the same brush.
There have been several cases of industrial espionage in the U.S. involving Chinese nationals. Is this part of qiaowu policy?
While qiaowu includes intelligence gathering on overseas Chinese and their activities, the boundaries between the qiaowu administration and the state become blurred when mobilizing overseas Chinese for national interests that go beyond its mandate. In these cases the qiaowu administration prefers to leave aggressive and coercive practices for other agencies to handle.
As China’s ‘Thousand Grains of Sand,’ PRC nationals and those of Chinese descent abroad are prompted to provide information or technology for China’s development in the form of decentralized micro-espionage. Targets are often unaware that they are the subject of such manipulation. Many respond positively and voluntarily by appealing to their ethnic pride and sympathies in “helping the motherland advance.”

苏格兰公投对英国核武意味着什么?


核潜艇基地 英国皇家海军的法斯莱恩基地是配备核导弹弹头的三叉戟潜艇的“家”。
苏格兰独立会对英国的核武威慑产生什么影响?英国在苏格兰海军基地的三叉戟核潜艇舰队将面临什么样的命 运?
英国三个主要政党,保守党、工党和自由民主党都认为英国应继续保留核武器。

但苏格兰执政的国家党一直说,一旦独立将对位于格莱德湾的海军基地“去核化”,把那里的所有核导弹弹头挪走。
这意味着,如果公投支持独立将使基地在苏格兰的英国核武器的未来产生疑问。

三叉戟核武威慑

英国是世界上为数不多的能打核战争的国家之一。
其核威慑力量由四艘前卫级核动力潜艇和潜载 “三叉戟”弹道导弹构成。(Trident ballistic missile system)。
三叉戟核潜艇
这些核潜艇位于苏格兰西海岸法斯莱恩克莱德湾的皇家海军基地,离格拉斯哥25英里。
多余的核弹头储藏在离海军基地八英里远,位于Coulport的皇家海军军备仓库。
根据英国政府的文件,从1969年起,每时每刻总有一艘英国潜艇载着核弹悄无声息地游弋在世界某处的大洋海底。
这样做的逻辑是防止对英国的核攻击。就是让敌人知道,即使在英国常规防卫能力遭到毁灭性打击的情况下,核潜艇仍然能给予侵略者以致命打击。
每艘核潜艇可装载16枚三叉戟导弹,每一枚导弹又可装有数枚核弹头。
每一艘核潜艇舰长都携有一封密封的来自首相的信,里面是一旦英国遭遇核攻击,政府全军覆没的情况下如何实施核打击的指令。
据报,三叉戟核导弹的毁灭力量是广岛原子弹的八倍。

三叉戟导弹与苏格兰独立公投

这四艘英国核潜艇的服役期到2020年代后期为止,三叉戟导弹的服役期可持续到2040年代早期。
卡梅伦和萨蒙德
英国所有三个重要政党都同意要维持英国的核威慑力量。
2007年,英国议会投票通过将在核潜艇服役期满后更新这些核潜艇,并开始了下一代核潜艇的设计工作。
然而,苏格兰国家党领导的政府誓言独立的苏格兰将要消除所有核武器。
苏格兰政府在独立白皮书中表示,反对核武器主要是基于道义和民主的理由。这是因为核武器“滥杀和不人道的毁灭力量”,以及英国核武基地受到 苏格兰公众长期的反对。
苏格兰政府称,独立的苏格兰将把尽早达成协议,尽快安全挪走核武器作为其优先工作。它希望三叉戟核潜艇在苏格兰独立后四年内搬出。

公投“支持独立”获胜后英国核武的命运

皇家联合军种国防研究所(RUSI)的研究报告称,如果苏格兰独立,英国三叉戟核潜艇搬出苏格兰克莱德海军基地“极困难但并非不可能”。
该报告还说,搬迁三叉戟核潜艇的成本远远低于原先的估计。
不过,在英国其他地方为它建新基地所需的时间则可能长达数十年。
有建议把三叉戟核潜艇迁到威尔士的佛茅斯或英格兰的普利茅斯。
英国首相卡梅伦在2013年的一篇文章中说,英国的核武计划是“英国不能没有的一个保险政策”,并坚持“独立的核威慑力量是英国国家安全的 关键组成部分。”
然而由于核武器搬家的种种困难和成本,包括高昂的经济、技术和政治成本,苏格兰独立可能会迫使英国彻底放弃海基核武器。

克莱德皇家海军基地

克莱德皇家海军基地
苏格兰政府说,独立后将把在法斯莱恩的克莱德海军基地转变为苏格兰的军事总部和非核化的苏格兰海军基地。
苏格兰独立白皮书说,该基地的苏格兰军事人员人数将相当于目前该基地的人数,同时有大量非军事人员的工作。
但反对苏格兰脱离英国的人士说,苏格兰独立将意味着克莱德海军基地数千工作的丢失。

如果公投不支持独立?

核潜艇
如果反对苏格兰独立的声音在公投中获胜,英国政府说在2017年前,所有英国皇家海军的潜艇都将以法斯莱恩为基地。
这包括新的机敏级攻击核潜艇以及老一些的第三代特拉法尔加级攻击型潜艇以及英国潜艇“卓越中心”。
英国国防部说,在基地的军事以及相关的非军事工作位置将从目前的6700增加到2022年的8200。
不过对于一个强烈反对核武器的苏格兰政府来说,苏格兰继续保留三叉戟核潜艇和核导弹实在是一个没任何吸引力的选项。

Does The World Needs A Regime Change At Qatar ?

Qatar is most likely the largest funder of Islamist terror in the world, yet the U.S. exempts it from being held accountable. Why?


The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin
        Khalifa al-Thani with Hamas head in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh during
        the emir's October 2012 visit to Gaza. During the visit, the
        emir pledged $400 million to the Hamas terrorist organization. The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani with Hamas head in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh during the emir's October 2012 visit to Gaza. During the visit, the emir pledged $400 million to the Hamas terrorist organization.

Proof continues to mount that Qatar supports Hamas, Al-Qaeda affiliates, the Muslim Brotherhood and contributes to the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq. Yet, its prized status as a U.S. “ally” exempts it from being held accountable. The U.S. needs to call a spade a spade and label Qatar as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.
The fighting between Israel and Hamas has brought a rare spotlight to Qatar’s duplicity. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) explained in a recent interview that the Qatari government has “told me over and over again that Hamas is a humanitarian organization,” even though the State Department labels Hamas a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Former Israeli President Shimon Peres said Qatar is now “the world’s largest funder of terror.” In October 2012, the Qatari emir pledged $400 million to the Hamas regime governing the Gaza Strip. In June, Qatar offered $60 million to pay the salaries of Hamas’s government workers. The leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, continues to operate from Doha, the capital of Qatar.
When Khaled Mashaal and other Hamas officials lived in Syria, it contributed to the State Department’s designation of Syria as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Qatar is now harboring and funding them lavishly and hasn’t even received a slap on the wrist. Instead, Qatar was awarded with America’s largest arms sales of 2014: $11 billion worth of Apache helicopters and Patriot defense systems.
Qatar’ actions have been defended by none other than Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, another leader who is ostensibly a U.S. ally but backs Hamas. A charity linked to Erdogan is even signing up human shields and sending a new flotilla to challenge the blockade on Gaza. Erdogan said Turkey and Qatar are “on the side of the persecuted” and Israel is a “terrorist state.”
It is now known that Qatar’s support for Hamas includes material assistance for terrorist operations and even direct cyber attacks on Israel.
The Hamas leaders in Qatar are not only acting as diplomats but as managers of violence. Rep. Peter Roskin (R-IL) wrote a letter on July 31 that mentioned that Israel arrested a courier for Hamas who was delivering money and instructions to Hamas terrorists in the West Bank from the Qatar-based leaders.
“U.S. cooperation with Qatar at the very same time they are providing material aid and support to an active and ferociously violent terrorist organization only serves to tacitly endorse and encourage this unacceptable behavior,” Rep. Roskin wrote.
Aviad Dadon, an expert on cyber security and advisor to several Israeli ministries, revealed that Hamas is scheduling its rocket fire using advanced software purchased from Qatar. He also blames Qatar for providing equipment to Hamas for managing its tunnel complex. The software enables Hamas to coordinate its response when a tunnel is discovered by Israeli forces.
Dadon said Qatar is “at the top of the pyramid in the use of cyber-technology for terrorist purposes.” He said that 70% of attacks on Israeli government websites since the latest fighting began came from IP addresses linked to Qatar.
Qatari support for Al-Qaeda should be considered a threat to the U.S., as exposed on CNN's "Outfront with Erin Burnett."
The special shows a YouTube video released by Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, thanking its Qatari donors. It also explains how a Kuwaiti cleric is fundraising in Qatar for the terrorist group.
“What you have is the resurrection of charitable networks that had been suppressed post-9/11, but that are being reborn in the context of Syria…Qatar is at the center of this. Qatar has now taken its place in the lead of countries that are supporting Al-Qaeda and Al-Qaeda-related groups,” says Juan Zarante, former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism.
A chief Al-Qaeda fundraiser in Qatar is Abd al-Rahman bin Umayr al-Nu’aymi. He was sanctioned by the Treasury Department in December 2013, making his presence and activities public knowledge. Qatar has yet to arrest him.
Al-Nu’aymi channels money from Qatari donors to Al-Qaeda’s affiliates in Syria, Yemen, Somalia and Iraq. He also has acted as a courier for the delivery of content to media outlets. At one point in time, he was transferring $2 million each and every single month to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. This group is now known as the Islamic State. Qatar therefore has some responsibility for the group’s terrifying rise in Iraq and Syria.
In 2012, he delivered $250,000 to two leaders of Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia that has proven skillful at recruiting Americans. Last year, he passed about $600,000 to the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra and pledged $50,000 more.
American tolerance of Qatar’s backstabbing is partially due to a desire to counter Iran. As a Sunni Arab state that is helping to fight Iran’s proxies in Syria, Qatar is seen as a tool for containing Iran. Yet, Qatar is growing closer to Iran despite their differences.
Qatar reportedly helped heal the rift between Iran and Hamas. The Iranians’ chief Palestinian proxy, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group, visited Qatar to meet with Hamas leader Mashaal in March. The country’s leaders recently agreed to “fight terrorism in the region.”
The Qatari government joined the NATO-led coalition to intervene in Libya and used its influence to support Islamist preachers, parties and militias. The Qatar-allied forces have undermined Libyan secularists at every turn. These Islamists include Muslim Brotherhood cleric Sheikh Ali Sallabi and militia leader Abdel-Hakim Belhaj, who has Al-Qaeda links.
It is doing the same thing in Syria, where secular rebels opposed to the Brotherhood complain of Qatari and Turkish influence. Qatar-backed forces like the Islamic Front, an alliance of Salafist groups including Ahrar al-Sham, are positioning themselves as “moderates” by battling the Islamic State forces.
“Nothing has changed in Qatar’s support for the Islamic Front with all its factions,” said one commander.
Qatar has alienated its Arab neighbors by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Jazeera, which has weekly show hosted by the Brotherhood’s inflammatory spiritual leader, is based in Doha. The Brotherhood and its affiliates, such as the International Union of Muslim Scholars, fundraise in Qatar. In 2012, a member of the Qatari royal family donated $1.4 million to the Union.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from Qatar this spring. A Saudi official even threatened to close the border with Qatar. The Middle East is divided into three alliances and the Qatar-Turkey-Muslim Brotherhood bloc is moving towards Iran.
Qatar’s support of terrorism has drawn the ire of David Cohen, the Treasury Department’s Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence and a group of 24 bipartisan members of Congress that confronted Qatar in August 2013.
“It’s our duty to ensure that our allies are not openly supporting any terrorist organization,” said Rep. John Barrow (D-GA).
The actions of the U.S. have informed Qatar that there is no price to pay for its support of Islamist terrorists and extremists. In 2009, a State Department memo described Qatar’s counter-terrorism cooperation as “the worst in the region,” citing the fundraising of Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group in the country.
“Although Qatar's security services have the capability to deal with direct threats and occasionally have put that capability to use, they have been hesitant to act against known terrorists out of concern for appearing to be aligned with the U.S. and provoking reprisals,” it states.
Shockingly, the memo instructs State Department personnel to ignore Qatar’s support for terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan because of its limited cooperation in regards to Hamas:
“[G]iven the current focus of U.S. engagement with the GOQ [Government of Qatar] on terror finance related to Hamas, it would be counter-productive for Embassy Doha to engage the GOQ at this time on disrupting financial support of terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
By supporting these terrorist groups, Qatar has directly contributed to the deaths of American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israelis and countless Muslims. The treatment of Qatar sends the wrong message about the low standards the U.S. has for “allies.”
Support for Islamist extremism should disqualify a government from being considered an “ally.”
FCPO - Oversold Market Gets More Oversold - 8/25/2014


 
The "oversold" market continues to get oversold. Price continue to fall without hitting my prior day high stop. The MACD falls further with the gap with its moving average getting wider. This is confirming the strong strength of the selling. The Stochastic stays in the oversold area without any hint of hooking back up. Since the ADX is strong now , I would ignore this indicator. The DMI is still expanding outward with the D- reaching 45's  and the ADX reaching 56's ! These are really signs of extremity. So I would continue to call the current market overdone but it certainly does not mean the market will rebound any sooner, but I would not get too carried away with the selling.

 
The weekly chart is firmly in the grip of the bear as ever. All the 3 indicators are negative with the MACD falling deeper below its zero signal line with the gap with its own moving average getting wider. The D- has risen to 46's which is considered as an extreme level, so I would want to take caution here. I also take note that price is falling "further" away from the lower band, and sometime when this happen, price could snap back toward the lower band. But as long as the ADX is still rising, the bearish trend stays intact.

Price may go down further to test a historic low of 1964 done on mid July, 2009. If that level fails to hold, then it is going to really a havoc for this market. And the current US Dollar strength has failed to bring up this market.
FKLI - Market Going Sideway ? - 8/25/2014


My stop was hit on last Thursday when price went below the prior day low. On the following price went down further and managed to hold above the middle band. So there is no new sell signal yet.
As at last Friday, the MACD ha begun to dip its direction but it remains positive. The Stochastic is still rising. The DMI stays negative and the D- has risen a bit but the ADX continues to fall and it is now at 20's. This could mean this market may be going into a listless market soon.

Since the recent high of 1875 failed to go higher than the last high of 1883.50 (30/7), so it would be interesting to see this is becoming a lower highs and lower lows situation.



 
At the weekly chart, though price went back up a bit but the indicators have not flash any complimentary signals. The MACD is till falling and its gap remains vast. The faster reacting Stochastic is also not reacting to the price revision as it is still falling. The DMI stays negative with the D+ hooking up some, but as the D+ is also below 20's level, I would not pay much attention to it yet. The ADX stays flat at 16's, this seems to confirming the falling ADX at the daily chart. This begins to look like a new listless market to me. If price is go below last week's low of 1855, it should flash a new sell signal.

Though the market may look like it is going into a sideway mode, the big picture  remains that of a big bear is looming around the corner.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

FCPO - Even The Slightest Bullish Dream Is Completely Crushed - 8/18/2014





There are a few lessons to be learnt here. First there is the wrong interpretation of an oversold market with the Stochastic/RSI going down below 30's which is a mistake that many local chartists often make. As in the case here, the Stochastic has been 'oversold" since mid July, but it does not stop the market from going further down. Secondly, an "oversold" market does not mean that you can start "buying low", another common mistake that many stock analysts like to advocate. I use the ADX above the DMI as a more reliable confirmation of an oversold/overbought market which works most of the times BUT it does not mean it works ALL the time as the current situation demonstrates here. But I did not advocate "buy low", instead I insisted on the usual confirmed trading signal for a buy trade. I did not do any end of day trade on the previous Friday when price broke below its recent lows again because I earlier read the market as oversold. But since the ADX has begun to rise again since 8/8 again, I decided to try my luck and sold again on last Monday when price went further and went below 2231. I was not very confident of the trade and kept my stop at the entry price high immediately after entry and then to above the bottom band and now I have moved it to prior day high.

Whatever slight bullishness I have been reading in the past few weeks have now completed evaporated. It is the smallish bullish divergence is now been completely erased away.  But since the ADX is  still above the DMI and it is now at the extreme level of 44's,  I am still reading it as an oversold market . I would be very cautious of any shorts trade. Though the divergence at MACD is gone now, there is still one minor one at the Stochastic, so I would not get too carried away with the selling.

 
The weekly chart remains bearish as ever. The MACD continues to fall and the Stochastic is negative and stay below its 30's level. As long the Stochastic does not hook up and go back above its 30's level, do not harbor any foolish thoughts of a reversal. The DMI stays negative with the D- also as in the daily chart, it has now reached the 41's extreme level. So I would expect some form of consolidation and even some minor retracement from here. The ADX is still rising so the big trend is still intact. From the chart, I have marked out a horizontal line which show the current price has broken below a long term support of 2137's. This could be a really bad omen for the bull.

In the recent past, Jim Rogers and many market analysts were talking about higher prices for commodities which include food and oil. But it does not look like that is the case. Despite the wars in Syria, Iraq , Ukraine and many oil producing African nations, crude oil and natural gas price fail to go higher but instead has been falling. And now FCPO seems to be following that path. 

FKLI - Market Waits For Next Sell Signal ? - 8/18/2014

 
After the previous week's slam down, the market began to recover from the shock. I had placed my stop at the prior day high and it was taken out on last Tuesday. Price has now climbed back above the bottom band on last Wednesday and the Stochastic also has turned positive on the following day. I bought again on last Friday as price went higher than the signal day high. I will place my new stop at below the bottom band initially and if the market cannot go higher , I would adjust my stop to the prior day low.

The Stochastic has turned positive and been rising. The MACD has also turned positive as on last Friday, but it is still below its zero signal line. The DMI stays negative with the D- falling back from the extreme level of 44's. When either D+ or D- goes too extreme (which is beyond 40's), it is always prudent that you should tighten your stops. The ADX has turned flat which is telling us the prior trend is taking a rest.

At the moment, I would not say the selling is over unless I can see price closes back above its recent fractal highs of 1877 and 1884 which have became its resistances.

 
The weekly chart Japanese Candlestick closed back above the bottom band which is telling us the market is not willing to yield to the bear, at least not yet. But all the 3 indicators remain bearish as the Stochastic is still falling and now reached its 50's signal line. The MACD stays negative and is still falling. The DMI is also negative but the D- has dipped which reflects the sellers are getting jittery. The ADX stays flat which mean there is not yet a strong trend in the market. I would become bullish again when if price can close back above the top band.

As I last written here, I expect a sideway or an even a smallish rebound before the market starts to fall again. But for that to happen , price would need to go below 1833. For the time being, a sideway market would be more likely.



 FCPO - The Waiting Game - 8/11/2014


The previous week's up move quickly disintegrated as price failed to go higher. Price has been going nowhere for the whole week except on last Friday when it went lower. Both the MACD and Stochastic remain positive and the Stochastic continues to move upward towards its 20's signal line. I would need to see it crossing up above that level and at the same time for the price to close above its recent new fractal high of 2287. in order to call for a new buy. At the moment as the ADX has ticked up again, be careful that the sellers may decide to kick in another round of sell down, which is most probably their final round of game. Meanwhile I would just trade the intraday chart signals for the time being.

The weekly chart remains firmly in the bearish camp. The MACD continues to slide downward. The Stochastic may be inside the oversold zone but there is nothing to show that it is staging a rebound yet. Most important of all is that it has not formed any divergence, as that would mean the sellers remain brave hearted. The DMI stays negative with the ADX continues to rise, so the bearish trend stays intact.

The overall pictures remain almost the same as in the previous week : the weekly chart is firmly bearish with no signs of a possible reversal. The daily chart offers a chance of a possible reversal but it is not of a strong firm one yet. Maybe by the coming week, the market would give me a clearer picture.
FKLI - Is The Party Finally Over ? -8/11/2014
 

the previous week's sell signal did not make good as price failed to go lower than the signal day low. Instead price reversed and went back to the bottom band with the Stochastic turned positive again. I bought in on the next day when it went above the signal day high, but this trade turned out to be a bad one. Price collapsed again the following day and went below the bottom band again so I closed off the trade with a small loss. On last Thursday price continued to go lower below the bottom band and this time I have got a confirmation from the negative Stochastic , so I sold again the following day when price went lower than the signal day low. Friday's itself has yielded some respectable profit on the current trade as it lost 25+ points.

All the 3 indicators are now negative with the MACD going below its zero signal line. This is confirming a new bear cycle. The DMI is even more dramatic as the D- is now above 40's with the ADX rises above its 20's signal line. Both these 2 are telling us a strong trend has begun in this market.

The weekly chart continues to deteriorate as price has now closed below the bottom band. The Stochastic is still falling  and it is fast approaching its 50's signal line. If it crosses below there, it would trigger another sell signal. The MACD is tearing itself away from its moving average which indicating the strength of the sellings. The DMI continues to rise after turning negative last week and as the low went lower than the signal week's low, so this has confirmed another sell signal. Please take note that the ADX has now stopped falling and gone flat, this is a preliminary signal that the prior cycle has ended



As the market may has "over reacted' last Friday, so we may see some short term sideway or even some smallish correction in the coming week. But if the usual herd mentality starts to kick in, then we may see the market collapses further. But overall, as I have been writing here for the past few weeks, the market has been getting ready for a major correction as the signs were all over the charts. But I was not surprise as many of the market analysts were still singing songs of self elusions over the health of our nation's economy . As bank interests need to go up, property and stock market will have to come down, at least for the short term. It is NOT only about local property market, but this also applies to many international market especially those in UK, Australia and China. It is so sad that many people are still got suckered into those market. 

Sunday, August 3, 2014

FCPO - Are The Sellers Getting Ready To Quit ? - 8/4/2014



The previous shorts trade was closed off on 25/7 when price went above the prior day high. I last commented here that I thought the sellers were faking it, prices hardly went further downward for the past 2 weeks . And on last Friday price went above the bottom band with the Stochastic turning positive again. Even the MACD has begun to turn around though it is still negative. I am looking forward for a stronger signal and that would be for the Stochastic to cross up above its 20's signal line or wait for the price to go above its recent fractal high of 2294. But I am getting more confident that the selling may be over because the ADX is now above the DMI and has gone flat for the past 2 days, this is a surer way to call the current situation an oversold market.  Another piece of evidence would be the D- has been falling and it is now below the 30's. 

 
The weekly chart remains bearish  as the MACD continues to fall and it is below the zero signal line which mean the bear is dominating the market. The Stochastic stays inside the oversold area but it has not turned positive yet. The DMI is also staying negative but the D- has begun to fall. This mean the sellers are letting go its grip a little bit. The ADX continues to rise , so I have little to feel bullish yet. The only item that may bring some hope to the bull is the weekly Japanese Candlestick which is a long lower shadow. When this comes out in a falling market, it could be interpreted as a bullish reversal signal. Since it is the sole and a"possible" signal against all other sell signals, so I would just wait and see first.

Though the weekly chart remains bearish, there are already some subtle signals at the daily chart that a new technical rebound is on its way and when it comes, it could be a strong one as there is a bullish divergence formed at all the 3 indicators. I suspect this will play right into the El Nino and the Ebola virus scares story. But a word of warning here :- since the MACD is still relatively "far" from its zero signal line, but I would still keep my stops tight as the sellers may still want to play their last hand before surrendering.