Sunday, August 3, 2014

FKLI - Armageddon Coming ? - 8/4/2014

The previous short trade was closed  off when price went above the bottom band on 25/7.A new buy signal was flashed on 30/7 when price went above the bottom band with the Stochastic went positive. But the signal was not good when it failed my filter trade as the signal day high was not met. Instead price collapsed below the bottom ban again on the next day. Price went further down and the Stochastic has turned negative again. So this is another new sell signal so I would sell again on the coming Monday if price goes below the signal day low of 1852.

The MACD stays negative and it is below the zero signal line which is firmly in the bear territory. The DMI remains negative and the D- has gone above the 30's level, this is confirming the strength of the sellers. The ADX has begun to rise and it has now gone above the 20's signal line, this is also confirming there is a trend in the market.

The weekly chart has been fast deteriorating as price is now firmly below the top and middle band. Both the MACD ans Stochastic have  turned negative. The DMI has just followed suit, this is the first time it has turned negative since mid September , 2013. If price can go below 1852, it would trigger another sell signal. Though almost all the sell signals are already in place or coming into place, the ADX remains flat and it is still below the 20's signal line, I would need to see this indicator to confirm a new trend in the market.

The market may has begun to act out on the bearish divergences formed at the daily and weekly charts, something that I have been warning here for the past several weeks. Of course the market is putting the blame to the new banking crisis in the South Europe, but then the EU crisis has never really gone away. Remember all the crisis that have been coming out from from EU were from the "small boys" (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Cyprus  etc). I am still waiting for the big boys like France and Italy to implode. And when if that is going to happen , then the market can really get panicky.

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