Sunday, August 31, 2014

FCPO - Mother of All Bears ? -9/1/2014

Despite all the oversold signals , market kicked whatever buyers that remain standing in their face again on last Friday with another new low. I sold again when price went below its recent low of 1954. As in my last sell trade, this is not a very prudent sell signal but I am merely trying out on my "luck", so I will keep a tight stop at above the bottom band and later at the prior day high.

The trend class indicators like MACD and DMI remain negative . The MACD did not have a care in the world and just keep falling further . The D- has whipped outward confirming the power of sellers. The ADX found new strength and rises again to 62's. I am still sticking to my earlier reading that this market is grossly oversold as both the ADX and D- are now in extremity level that the market may reverse suddenly. The Stochastic should be interesting to follow closely from here, though price has reached another new low, it has not followed so. So if it can hold for the next few days without falling much, it could be trying to tell me something.


 At the weekly chart, nobody should try to take side with the bull. The MACD continues its free fall. The DMI is whipping out like it has gone crazy. The D- is now at 47's and even the ADX has now risen to 32's. The Stochastic may be in its oversold zone, but it has not be able to fight back a bit as it continue to lay submissively there.

The monthly chart has turned really nasty as price is confirmed previous month sell signal when price closed below the bottom band by going below the signal month low. The MACD has just turned negative and it is below the zeros signal line. The Stochastic continues to fall and it has gone below the 50's signal line which is even more bearish. The D- has now risen above the 30's line which confirms the strong selling. The ADX has finally begun to rise which indicates  beginning of a new trend. Unless price can manage to close back above the bottom band, the monthly chart is really offering another nasty piece of confirmation for the selling.

The current monstrous bear market for the FCPO would mean a huge losses to the government's revenue and growers' income. It is really not a comforting picture for the country. I am beginning to think would this market bears help to bring out the bear in FKLI ?

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