Wednesday, September 30, 2009

KL Stock - BJLand

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

KL Stock - BPPlas

Terrorists of the world to send in their condolences

So we heard that Kalashnikov – the makers of the AK-47 and, also, a fine vodka in an even finer rifle-shaped decorative glass bottle – is filing for whatever is the Russian equivalent of chapter 11 bankruptcy. Straight out of Pravda:

The Court of Arbitration of the Republic of Udmurtia registered a petition in bankruptcy of JSC Izhmash (Izhevsk Mechanical Works), the largest firearms maker in Russia, Interfax reports. The court hearings to investigate the causes of the petition will be held on October 7, 2009.

Izhmash, the pride of the nation’s defense industry, may prove to be an unprofitable enterprise. Udmurtia’s Court of Arbitration will look into the financial documents of the group of enterprises of Izhmash Concern. If reasons for bankruptcy are unveiled, Russia’s largest maker of firearms will have to be reorganized.

Bankruptcy proceedings, if they take place, will relieve Izhmash of its debt burden.

It is worthy of note that the production at Molotov Works, a part of Izhmash Concern and the maker of the renowned Kalashnikov assault rifle, was stopped not so long ago, news agencies said. The production was stopped due to the absence of the state order: the company has no money to pay salaries to employees and return debts to creditors.

We’re relieved to hear they aren’t headed for liquidation, as the last thing the Caucasus needs is for some dude to come in from Chechnya and bid a dollar and walk out with a rifle factory, or something like that. But, if they’re having trouble keeping the lights on by just selling plain old guns, we’d like to suggest they consider some alternative revenue streams. Licensing the name to the Kalashnikov vodka is a good way to diversify, but also, were they paying attention to Justin Melnick’s “Arm Me” exhibition last year? A Louis Vuitton x Automatic Kalashnikov collab could be just the thing to kickstart this old Russkiy brand back to the forefront of the luxury assault weapon market. I know I’d be on the waiting list, especially if they can get Murakami involved.

I’m kidding, but only halfway. If you ask JSC Izhmash why they’re having to file bankruptcy, the reason they give is that their gun has been completely knocked off, and the fake AKs outsell the real ones 10 to 1. Louis Vuitton knows a little about dealing with a flood of counterfeits in the market, as well – but LV has kept its cache, whereas AK has become commodified. So – slap some LV logos on the AKs and they become a dictatorial status symbol again! Hey, at least it’s not like I suggested they start manufacturing the ones with Hello Kitty on them.

Anirudh Sethi Report

Monday, September 28, 2009

KL Stock -AZRB

The Loonies about to blow ?

The Canadian together with the Australian Dollars are what regarded as commodity currencies. This is due to the fact both nations' economy which are unlike those of other developed nations, they are more biased toward their natural resources like coal, copper, iron ore, and gold. So the fortune of the minerals largely will affect that of the Canadian Dollars and Australian Dollars.

The Canadian Dollars or Loonies has been range bounding for the past 2 months which can be seen by the falling and lowly ADX which is currently at 13. But it has been getting increasing bullish as the positive MACD is fast approaching its own zero signal line while the Stochastic is also approaching its 50's signal line. Both of which are usually more bullish signals. At the time of writing this, I also note the ADX has begun to raise its head which may be foretelling us a trend is back.

But as usual I would not get excited over a market unless I see some kind of divergences therein. Here it is very clear while the Loonies fell to a new low on August 4th. compare to its last low on June 1st., the MACD has NOT follow suit by registering a lower trough but instead has formed a higher trough. This is actually telling us the shorties are getting less confident and clearing out of their positions.

The weekly chart's divergence is only found at the Stochastic which is about to cross up its 20's signal line which could be taken as an initial buy signal. Prices also have closed up above the lower Bollinger Band which is another minor buy signal. But the flat ADX which is holding above its 20's is not too encouraging. This is read as there is little trend.

I would like to see price closes above its recent fractal point of 1.110 as a confirmation of the return of the bull. In the case of the Canadian Dollars, Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs charts, when prices go upward it would mean these currencies are depreciating against the USD and vice versa. As mentioned in the first paragraph, the Loonies should be depreciating because most of the commodities have already begun to show signs of weaknesses which would affect the Canadian's economy in some way.

On the other hand, the coming depreciation of the Loonies is also reinforcing my bullish readings on the USD. So has the British Pound's.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

CPO - More flip flop - 28/9/09

Last week I wrote that I was not too convinced on the buy side of the signal because the MACD has not turned positive yet. On last Thursday, the market again kicked out our prior long positions when it went below 2135. But then I would not have engage any new shorts because the Stochastic was still rising. On Friday, prices again went above the lower Bollinger Band which would had us re-engaged new long positions. I think this time, we may have a better chance to make some money from the long positions as the MACD has finally turned back up, though it still has NOT turned positive, but it looks more promising than the last signal. I would add a little more position when if the Stochastic crosses up its 50 signal line or price goes above its previous high of 2210. Though I am NOT too bullish about this move as the D- is still above the D+. With the ADX flat, I think this could be just another sideway situation.

The weekly chart stays technically bearish as both the Stochastic and MACD stay negative. You should take note that the MACD has now crossed below its zero signal line which is even more bearish . But price is still holding above the lower Bollinger Band and the ADX maintains below 20's and flat, this market will not see any new trend yet. If by next Friday's closing can go below 2085, then maybe a new directional move would be in.

So the game plan for the coming week would be play with short term long positions in small quantity. Keep tight stop at 2110.

FKLI - Stay alert and keep stops tight - 28/9/09

Even though last week's stop at 1208 is still intact, this market is beginning to warrant more attention. Last Friday it opened below the upper Bollinger Band, though it managed to close back up above it, I think you should raise stop to 1215 as to protect your profit.

The MACD though remains positive but it has begun to drop its head (direction) which is telling us that it has begun to lose momentum. The Stochastic has already turned negative though it manages to stay above its 80's signal line. I would pay attention if the Stochastic when if it crosses down below its 80's signal line or when the MACD crosses down which I would take them as an initial sell signal.

I am getting increasing bearish as the Stochastic has already formed a minor bearish divergence and so will the MACD if it fails to hold above the upper Bollinger Band. Please note this would be 3rd bearish divergence it is forming now which is rare and will be extremely bearish. A bearish divergence is a classical sign that the market is unable to maintain a real momentum, but confirming the past few weeks of up moves were merely pushes that the big boys are trying to unloading their holdings rather than adding to more new net long positions. You should also take note the ADX is now above both the D+ and D- which may be confirming this market is already overbought.

Another piece of more abstract "evidence" would be
for the past few weeks there are increasing number of "experts" telling us that our economy is getting rosy and recovery is already in . When there is the crowd singing praises and turn unreasonable bullish, my perception always tell me to start looking at the opposite direction.

Meanwhile its weekly chart still remain bullish and there is little evidence telling us to be bearish. Price is maintaining above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is still positive but also starting to lose momentum. The Stochastic is also holding above its 80's level. The weekly ADX has begun to rise again.

So the weekly chart stays bullish while the daily chart is still pretty BUT has flashed many warning signs therein. So despite having saying all the above doom and gloom stuffs, this is NOT implicating that this market will collapse tomorrow, BUT with the bearish divergences, this market will definitely collapse soon. The ultimate question will be "how soon ?". The trading plan has always been stay with the existing trend (which is still on the buy side) until it breaks something and tell us to reverse our position. So for the time now, stay long, maintain a tight stop.

Friday, September 25, 2009

KL Stocks - Utusan, Tracoma & Jadi

Man-ly bed !

"Luxury auto brand Lamborghini, which is owned by Volkswagen AG, has teamed up with Italian mattress maker Magniflex SpA to design a mattress aimed at men who love sports cars."

God, is there anything that makes you feel more like a man than laying down at night and dreaming about (sucking) tailpipe? One thing I'm troubled by is that the "Lamborghini bed" is really just this:

The hideous eyesore you see above isn't just a bed, it's a sleeping experience. It's called the "Sphere" and it will run you about USD50,000. I know, sounds kind of steep to pay for a mattress that doesn't spontaneously blow you the moment you get in but guess what, it also comes bunch of other shit you probably already own, like an iPod dock and flat screen TV. But now you can take that stuff to bed with you and feel like a man. Do you see the distinction? The cave also has a cooler for drinks and a sweat-wicking system. The Journal reports manufacturers are hoping there's a market out there for guys looking to throw down a bunch of money for sleep stations like the Sphere, which are centered around the idea of "macho mattresses" containing "muscle-recovery properties" and cooling technology (based on the theory that men are more likely to feel hot in bed than women!) and then fully-loaded with special add-ons like a safe to hold your gun and other manly stuff.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Crude Oil - kicking OPEC in the face soon ?

I wrote on crude oil back in February 19th. and April 15th. I was commenting that a super bull may be returning soon in this market. I was ridiculed by some of my friends because most of them just could not see the logic behind a crude's bull when the whole world was reeling in pains after the 2008 financial crisis. I , too, cannot offer any explanation except that was what the charts were saying then.

Of course soon after which, crude oil did rally all the way to USD70+. The past few weeks, crude oil chart begins to warrant a different readings. And this time, it seems to be foretelling it may be time to think about the bears again.

At the daily chart, I would immediately notice what looks like a triple tops which is usually extremely bearish. With the triple tops, then there is the series of lower peaks at the MACD which means a triple bearish divergence which is extremely rare.The D- is now above the D+ and a falling Stochastic are both confirming its current bearish reading. The ADX has fallen below its 20's signal line since early August which is confirming the lack of direction for now.

The weekly chart's ADX is confirming the lack of trend at the daily chart as it has fallen below its 20's signal line. So is the price which has got stuck within the lower and upper Bollinger Bands. The weekly MACD has begun to turn around but at this time it has NOT turned negative yet. The Stochastic has formed
a bearish divergence with the prices.

A closing below the lower Bollinger Band would most probably signal the beginning of a new bear cycle. And yes, it would sound so strange when the whole world is talking about a bottom and an economic recovery (heh, even our very own Bank Negara Governor talks about it too!) and here I am talking about a possible collapse of the crude oil's price.

GBP collapsing soon ?

I last wrote on GBP's possible return of the bull on February 24th and April 16th., since then GBP has rallied from 1.49 to its recent high of 1.70 on August 5th. Now it may be time to take another look at this market.

From its daily chart, it seems that a bearish Head & Shoulder may be in formation. And I also note this bearish formation is complimented with a bearish divergence at the MACD and the Stochastic. And the ADX has been falling and below its 20's signal line which is confirming a lack of trend for the past one and a half month. But as the MACD has already crossed down below its zero signal line and have been forming a series of lower peaks and lower troughs, I am getting increasing bearish about this market.

The weekly chart is confirming the daily chart's range bounding as prices remain caught within the Bollinger Bands and the band is now squeezing while the weekly ADX has also been falling. All these are all confirming a lack of trend. But as the band has been squeezing, this is usually forewarning us an explosive move may be forthcoming soon. At the time of writing, the weekly MACD has already crossed down (since today is Thursday, you would need to check again by tomorrow's closing to see whether it stays negative). The Stochastic has also crossed down and now going below its 50's signal line which is generally more bearish. And there is 2 tacit bearish divergence found at lower D+ and Stochastic peaks in relation to higher prices.

Though the general consensus around the world now is that the USD will "die" due to the obvious. I am one of those very fews that feel otherwise about the USD as I think it may be plotting for an extremely strong return (July 14th and September 6th postings) . Of course if I am correct on the USD's emerging bull, then the GBP should get floored fiercely accordingly.

KL Stocks - SHL & Insas

The origins of how banks sold Lehman's toxics to unsuspecting clients

A report issued by the European Commission is threatening banks in member countries with turning up the enforcement if they don't clean up their act. The EC took a look at the business conventions of a couple hundred players across Europe and the results of their investigation may shock you.

The report, which analysed 224 financial institutions covering some 80 percent of the market, showed many banks appeared to try to hide charges with complex fee structures that a lot of customers said they found difficult to understand.

Information was often given in legal and financial jargon, important details were hidden in small print and formats were too long without focussing on key features of the product.

For 66 percent of the banks surveyed, fees, as presented on the Internet or on paper, were so unclear that experts needed to contact the institutions for additional information

It's alarming to think banks would operate this way, but those findings were nothing compared to the real stunner.

"Bank salespeople often receive bonuses as incentives to sell certain products. So they are trying to convince people to buy those products, even if they are unsuitable for them," said one official involved in preparing the report.

However, help is on the way for European customers starting in November when the widely feared voluntary code of good practices kicks in. If that doesn't work, banks may encounter a couple shoe throwing incidents of their own.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

US Stock - Warner Music Group

KL Stocks - Penta, KPSCB, Komark & Bintai

Saturday, September 19, 2009

CPO - Flip flop again -22//09

The market has again forced us out by retracing upward and hit the stop. Since price has now closed above the lower Bollinger Band and the Stochastic has also crossed up above its 20's signal line , so we are back in the long side of the market. Place your stop at 2135. Since the MACD is now below its own zero signal line and remains negative, and the D- is also above the D+, so I would not want to engage too big a position for longs positions.

In the weekly chart , both the MACD and the Stochastic are still negative and falling. The D- is also above the D+. With the Stochastic below its own 50's signal line and the MACD may drop below its own zero signal line, everything seem to be pointing to a bearish reading of this chart. The only item is the ADX which has now sunk below 20's, which is confirming a lack of trend in this market. With this reading, therefore you should be trading small in the daily chart.

FKLI - Stick with the trend - 22/9/09

My stop was not violated last week, so I would still be holding to the longs. For the coming week, I shall raise my stops to 1208. Except the troublesome bearish divergence, all the indicators remain healthy. The MACD continues to rise, the Stochastic maintains above its 80's zone and ADX is still rising. All of which mean the trend is still intact. Since there is the bearish divergence and already within 30 points of reaching its next target, so I would not think of adding more positions.

The weekly chart remains bullish as price maintains above the upper Bollinger Band,the MACD is still positive and continue to rise while the Stochastic remains within the 80's zone. An interesting item here is despite prices continue to rise, the ADX has been flat since mid August. So that it could be another way to call it a bearish divergence.

Another real time learning opportunity here is that the Stochastic has remained "overbought" since late April, but yet price just go higher and higher. This is an valuable lesson here:- if the market has already got into a trending mode, we should not use oscillators like Stochastic, RSI, CCI, W% etc and call the market overbought or oversold. If you thought this market has reached "overbought" when the Stochastic went above 80's and you started to shorted this market, then you would had suffered great losses by now.

Friday, September 18, 2009

US Stocks - Pitney Bowes & Sara Lee

HK Stocks - Heng Tai & Nan Hai Corp

KL Stocks - BCT Tech, IJM WB & Abric

KL Stocks - Ingress, KKB, Tamadam, PRKCorp, Hubline, EPMB & Efficen

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

KL Stock -Chee Wah

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

KL Stocks - Stamcol & Perduren

Sunday, September 13, 2009

KL Stock -QSR

CPO - Waiting patiently for the big bear -14/9/09

We have all the indicators in agreement with each others:- the MACD has just crossed down its zero signal line; the Stochastic may be below the 20's zone but since the ADX has begun to rise, so I would watch the MACD instead. The 'oversold' Stochastic may mean the market will stay sideway for a short while before another real action is due. Add on more new sell position if market breaks below 2125.

On last Thursday, intra day price action went up and hit your stops at pre-determined lower Bollinger Band plus 5 ticks ,but only on the next day signaled you to re-enter a new sell again. You would NOT have enter any longs contract because all the indicators are still negative. The new stop would now be at 2203. This is another of those "unfortunate" things that can happen to any traders in any markets. As I always emphasize :- Preset your stops !

In the weekly chart, we have both the MACD and Stochastic falling and the MACD may fall through its own zero signal line which is an important confirmation for bearish signal. Price has also closed below the lower Bollinger Band . The weekly ADX has stopped falling and turned flat. But it is still below the 20's signal line which is telling us the market is still lacking a trend. I have drawn a horizontal line to mark out the prior peaks of the recent D+ and D-, so if the D- can take out those prior peaks, then I think the bear is official.

A similar setup is found at many of the other commodities charts (eg. crude), CPO regardless of the "fundamentals" should be following its "cousins" to take a great fall soon.

FKLI - Another breakup, but I remain cautious - 14/9/09

All the indicators as per the previous week were contradicting and lack confirmation of a new trend. So I decided to use its prior high and prior low and mark out 2 horizontal lines on the daily chart to monitor for any new development. Last Monday this market finally broke out above its prior high and went higher.

The MACD finally goes into agreement with the Stochastic which both are now rising. At the same time the previously falling ADX has now begun to rise. But I am still have some reservation on this move as it is already very near to the 1,250 target and the Stochastic has already gone to 92's. But as long as the bearish divergence is not erased, I would continue to exercise extreme caution. And if price starts to collapse , this would mean a third bearish divergence in formation which is even more extreme bearish.

But as any divergence may show up in any chart, it does NOT mean that the market will collapse tomorrow. But we would HAVE to be get up on our toes to watch out for a major reversal. So since we are already in the long side of the trade, we will watch closely and let it run until it reverses and hit our stops. And our stop is at 1192.

The weekly chart is almost same as the previous week's. Other than the bearish divergence formed at the Stochastic, others still remain bullish.