Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Natural Gas to shock and awe soon


The recent headline from Bloomberg, following the recent sell down in shares globally.

"Oil, Gasoline Tumble as World Bank Predicts a Deeper Recession"

"Gasoline tumble" ? I am NOT too sure about that. I think it is already setting up for an extreme bullish blowup.

The weekly chart's ADX has been falling from above both the D+ and D- since May, this is confirming the end of the prior bear trend. The positive Stochastic has been rising and now it is above its 50 signal line which is more bullish inclined. The MACD is also positive and has been rising, but since it is still below its zero signal line, so maybe we still have to wait awhile and wait for a positive crossover above the zero line. But the MACD has been registered higher troughs while prices went lower lows. This is the classical bulish divergence which I would always look for in any market for a confirmation of a terminal turning point.

But the most exciting setup in the weekly chart is the squeezing Bollinger Band which is confirming gas' recent sideway movement. But a squeezing BBand is also foretell us that this market is about to blow violently. Since all the indicators are the bullish biased, so I think the blowup should be on the buy side.


The first thing I immediately take note on the daily chart is its lowly ADX which has fallen below its 20 signal lines at 14. This is confirming a lack of direction in this market. The next major setup is there is also a bullish divergence at its MACD with the prices. While the MACD has already made its way up above the zero signal line but both itself and Stochastic have turned negative, so I cannot get bullish about it now.

You should watch for
a closing above 4.255, especially if it can hold above that level for a few days, then Natural Gas would probably shock and awe everyone.
As I have been a faithful technical analysis student, please do not ask me about those bothersome fundamentals as why it should rally when the world's finance is in such a sorry state, I am only reading all the signals that the charts are giving out.

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