Friday, March 30, 2012

China Rolling Over AUD 




Consider the Australian dollar

China is rolling over right now -- take a look at FXI, PGJ, HAO, and the Shanghai composite-- and it is taking the entire industrial metals complex with it.

This is not only a very bearish development for the Australian dollar, it's bearish for a wide swath of "commodity supercycle" stocks: Base metal miners, steel producers, oil service, and so on.


For a long time after 2008, we had "all or nothing" type markets, where risk assets seemed to have a correlation of 1. Either everything was up, or everything was down.


Now, finally, we have some massive divergences -- which is great news for a balanced long / short trading portfolio. 

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