Friday, August 17, 2012

 Wars Have Always About Resources


pearl harbor, december 7, 1941, uss
                              west virginia

The recent rise in tensions over the disputed South China Sea has drawn attention to the possibility that the conflict is really about natural resources located in the islands of the South China Sea. With the help of Waverly Advisors we point out that wars over commodities go back centuries.

We re-examine the real motivations behind the Pearl Harbor attack and  the German invasion of Russia. We also consider more current geo-political tensions that are being driven by commodities.

The American Revolution in Europe is seen as a battle between the British and the French for commodities and trade routes

The American Revolution in Europe
                                is seen as a battle between the British
                                and the French for commodities and trade
                                routes

The French participated in the American Revolution when they offered the United Stated naval support in 1778. While the revolution is seen as a patriotic battle in the U.S. to Europeans it was a battle over commodities and trade routes. 
 
From Waverly: "From a European perspective the U.S. revolt was a sideshow to a larger British/French conflict fought mainly over the agriculturally rich East and West indies trade routes. While the British lost to the colonists at Yorktown, the Royal Navy's victory over a French & Spanish fleet at the Battle of the Saintes was bigger news at home as it secured Sugar rich Jamaica as a British possession."

The Battle of Plassey helped establish British control over India and bring it access to the country's commodities and control trading routes

The Battle of Plassey helped
                                establish British control over India and
                                bring it access to the country's
                                commodities and control trading routes

Though the British Raj or the British empire in India only began in 1858, the British had made their presence felt through the East India Company as early as the 1600s with the Mughal's granting them trading rights in the early 1600s. 
 
But as the Mughal Empire weakened and after the British won the Battle of Plassey they wound down the East India Company and took over the nation. Britain's interest in India was driven by the empire's interest in Indian spices, textiles, precious stones, opium, other commodities and control over trade.

The American Civil War centered around slavery but slavery itself was driven by demand for cotton and other agricultural commodities

The American Civil War centered
                                around slavery but slavery itself was
                                driven by demand for cotton and other
                                agricultural commodities

"While slavery or states' rights are the primary reasons for the conflict according to most scholars, it's important to remember that the southern economies extreme dependence on Cotton and other agricultural commodities was a critical underlying cause of Slavery itself.
During the war, European demand for cotton greatly outstripped supply due to the Union blockade, and the confederacy was able to issue bonds bought by European institutions that had a convertible feature allowing them to be redeemed for gold or a fixed volume of Cotton, making them a favorite of speculative traders. After the war the U.S. refused to honor any Confederate debt, even that issued by individual states."

The Finnish-Soviet war was prompted by Stalin's quest for Nickel

The Finnish-Soviet war was prompted
                                by Stalin's quest for Nickel

During the second world war the Soviet Union wanted to mine nickel in Petsamo, but following the Soviet Union invasion of Finland, what has since been known as the winter war Finland refused and this resulted in the Continuation War. 

From Waverly: "While the Finnish successfully defended themselves, the Soviets ultimately prevailed and seized the are at the end of WW2."

The Pearl Harbor strike was Japan's effort to knock the U.S. out of the war and get access to commodities in South Asia

The Pearl Harbor strike was Japan's
                                effort to knock the U.S. out of the war
                                and get access to commodities in South
                                Asia

The Manchurian incident as it is now known refers to Japan's invasion of Manchuria in the 1930s and was in part because of demand for base metals. This invasion led the U.S. and other nations to embargo their oil shipments to Japan.
From Waverly: "The attack on Pearl Harbor was a direct result as Japan sought to Knock America out of the war quickly and seize oil, metal and food commodity assets in South Asia. Beyond the casualties of conflict, the Japanese enslaved millions of  people to extract and refine these commodities resulting in much more suffering and death."

The German invasion of Russia was about more than just an ideological battle, it was a battle for commodities

The German invasion of Russia was
                                about more than just an ideological
                                battle, it was a battle for commodities

As the second world war progressed Germany, found it increasingly difficult to obtain oil because of the British navy.
Germany invaded Russia not just over ideological differences but also because it wanted access to the "grain belts of southern Russia and the Ukraine" and "oil wells of far southern Russia". Moreover British and Turkish troops wanted to seize Russian oil fields in the first world war.

Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was seen as an attempt to gain control of the latter's oil reserves

Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was seen
                                as an attempt to gain control of the
                                latter's oil reserves

After Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing its oil, Iraq invaded the country in 1990, a move that was largely seen as an attempt to gain control of Kuwait's large oil reserves. It was also argued that Iraq wanted to curb Kuwaiti oil production, bring up oil prices and repay the massive debt it amassed while funding its war with Iran.
From Waverly: " While protestors in the US carried signs that said "no blood for oil" there was no question whatsoever what Iraqi troops were fighting for in 1990. The actual excuse that Saddam Hussein gave for the invasion was that Kuwait was stealing Iraqi oil through slant drilling."

The ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea are really about oil

The ongoing territorial disputes in
                                the South China Sea are really about
                                oil
Protesters rallying against a territorial dispute over a group of islands in the South China Sea

China has been involved in territorial disputes with Japan and Taiwan over the Senkaku islands, and Vietnam over the Spratly islands off the coast of Vietnam. China has even ramped up its naval presence in the South China Sea making its neighbors antsy.
From Waverly: "China's claims in these cases are based on maps drawn out centuries ago when the Chinese empire laid claim to most of the South China sea. Why are they making these claims? Oil, and lots of it. The oil beds in the south China sea are estimated to contain nearly as much crude as Saudi Arabia has currently in proven reserves."

The tensions around the Falklands are likely motivated by the island nation's oil reserves

The tensions around the Falklands
                                are likely motivated by the island
                                nation's oil reserves

While Argentina and the UK have already warred over the Falklands. But in 2010 the nations fell out over the British began drilling for oil off the coast of the island. And tensions are continuing to rise. 
Argentina which is already burdened by debt and is facing an energy crisis might be raising opposition now not just because it wants to regain sovereignty of the islands, but because it wants access to its oil reserves.

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