欧元重贬 中国可以容忍人民币再升值多少？

欧版QE今日问世，并引链式反应，丹麦3天内再次降息，

近期瑞士央行和加拿大央行也先后降息，瑞士上周还意外取消瑞士法郎兑欧元上限，日本央行扩 大增长融资机制。如果瑞士央行允许欧元兑瑞士法郎贬值的做法引发新一轮竞争性货币贬值，英国央行一致同意不上调利率。中国可以容忍人民币再升值多 少?
由于很长时间以来人民币都是和美元挂钩的，因此人民币兑几乎所有其他主要货币都在升值。人民币进一步走高可能对中国经济来说不是一件好事。去年， 中国出现了近四分之一个世纪以来的最慢增长速度——尽管中国已超过美国成为以购买力平价计算的全球最大经济体。2014年中国经济同比增长 7.4%，这是自1990年以来的最低增长速度。与此同时，中国经济面临通货紧缩威胁，同时还新出现了一股外资撤离风潮。
据华尔街日报中文网，上周的汇市骚动对经济增长构成了新的不利风险，因为中国的出口商品将更难在欧洲市场上售出。欧洲是中国的第二大出口目的地， 仅次于美国。
中国面临的另一个风险是人民币升值放大了通缩力量。在过去近三年里，生产者价格不断下跌，而原油价格的暴跌加剧了通胀进一步下降的倾向。房地产市 场彷佛也在果断推动物价走低。周末公布的最新官方数据显示，去年12月份中国新建住宅均价同比下跌4.3%。
摆在北京眼前的一道难题是，外部的货币汇率波动是它所无法掌控的。如果瑞士央行允许欧元兑瑞士法郎贬值的做法引发新一轮竞争性货币贬值，那么中国 可以容忍人民币再升值多少?

欧央行QE登场 “全球货币大战”正式吹响号角

  随着欧央行宣布QE，全球央行的货币大战正式吹响了号角。事实上，这场不宣之战早已大张旗鼓地展开：仅在过去两周内，已经分别有丹麦、加拿大、瑞士、埃 及、土耳其、秘鲁、和印度多家央行纷纷降息。令人担忧的是，这场货币大战注定是一场谁都会输的战争。
高盛总裁兼首席运营官Gary Cohn在冬季达沃斯论坛上表示，为了促进经济增长，全球国家已经在参加货币战争。“我们正处于货币战争中。现在流行的观点是，刺激经济增长最简单的方法 是让货币贬值。”
欧央行“不能说的秘密”：欧元贬值
尽管德拉吉一直否认欧元是央行目标，但不可否认，欧元贬值将是QE抵达实体经济的最有效渠道。而且，欧央行宣布QE后，立竿见影的效果就是，欧元 对美元迅速贬值了2%以上，创下11年来新低。
欧元走弱将刺激出口，更关键的是，推升通胀。正如日本央行那样，欧洲央行正间接利用欧元这一重要的全球储备货币作为政策武器。
华尔街资深交易员、瑞银首席经济学家Art Cashin一针见血地说，欧央行实现的只能是欧元贬值，并无其他。
“这些国家一直在输出通缩，但还没有演变为海啸。当达到那个地步时，你才会看到全球央行决定，他们最好还是更加合作些才好。”Cashin说。
货币战：一场谁都会输的战争
全球货币大战注定是一场谁都会输的战争。“货币战争不可能善终，从来都不。”Cashin表示。
瑞士央行一周前决定“举起白旗”放弃瑞郎对欧元的上限，导致瑞郎大幅升值，让瑞士经济面临衰退风险。更糟糕的是，瑞郎风暴席卷全球金融市场，引发 了一场损失惨重的金融海啸。
瑞士的情况突显了货币战争的徒劳。因为其他央行总会采取行动来应对欧洲央行的QE计划。
日本央行仍然挣扎着试图说服投资者，它将实现通胀目标，而日本汽车出口商的最大竞争对手恰恰是德国——可想而知日本央行将面临更大的宽松压力。
带着非常明显的火药味，丹麦央行为了维护丹麦克朗与欧元的挂钩，在周四欧央行QE后立刻宣布降息。这已是丹麦央行本周第二次降息。
事实上，过去短短两周内，已经分别有丹麦、加拿大、瑞士、埃及、土耳其、秘鲁、和印度多家央行纷纷降息。而如果从2014年以外算起，全球主要国 家中，已有12个国家的央行步入了降息周期;仅巴西、俄罗斯和新西兰由于通胀和本币贬值等因素的困扰，仍处在加息通道。
另一方面，全球货币宽松很大程度上已经被固定收益市场计入价格了。与其说是提振市场信心，不少人担心，极低的借贷成本将让央行丧失控制能力，进一 步扭曲金融市场。
美联储是否会推迟加息?
当全球央行宽松正酣之时，已经结束QE且正计划加息的美联储会如何反应?
美国经济复苏强劲，美元正不断走强，自从去年年中开始进入升值通道以来，美元对其他主要货币的升值幅度已经高达10%。而美联储究竟在多大程度上 能容忍美元升值，是值得注意的问题。
许多美联储官员们预计将在今年年中左右开始上调接近于零的基准短期利率。然而，随着美国通胀持续疲软，市场投资者越来越相信，近期经济和市场形势 可能会导致美联储推迟加息。尤其令美联储官员们担心的一件事就是，美国10年期国债收益率低于2%。
新的货币协议?这一次很难
历史上的全球货币紧张局势，导致了一些协调政策利益的国际协议，并载入了世界经济史。
早在上世纪80年代，美元的强势催生了三十年前在纽约广场酒店签署的《广场协议》。而在亚洲金融危机期间，时任美国财长罗伯特•鲁宾 (Robert Rubin)在声称强势美元对美国有利的情况下，让日元升值。同样，如今美国对人民币汇率低估的批评声始终不绝于耳。
那么，如果这场全球货币战愈演愈烈，是否有希望全球能就政策协调再次达成一项新的协议?这一次可能很难。
目前为止，美元升值幅度远远不及1980年至1985年的90%。汇丰银行的策略师在近期报告中称，对于美元升值对美国经济的影响，目前美国国内 的不满声音与三十年前相比几乎听不见。
更何况，今非昔比。上世纪80年代和90年代协调各国利益要比如今容易。现在的全球大国——代表先进工业国家的七国集团(G7)已经扩展到了代表 全球二十大经济体的二十国集团(G20)，市场规模也大得多。
上世纪80年代时，日本和欧洲还在遏制美元升值上拥有共同利益，因为他们的货币升值抗击通胀。而如今一切都变了，日本和欧洲正在通缩中挣扎，政府 债务高企不下，财政刺激几无余地。只有央行还剩下些政策弹药，而且现在欧洲和日本也不在一条船上了。

Assassins Corp From Iran

 Iran Has A Lot To Gain From The Death Of A Crusading Argentine Prosecutor

The sacking of Yemen’s capital by Iranian-assisted Houthi rebels hasn’t been the week’s only positive geopolitical development from Tehran’s perspective.

On Jan. 18, Alberto Nisman, the Argentinian prosecutor responsible for investigating the a 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires — along with a suspected quid pro quo between the two country’s governments partly aimed at concealing Iran’s involvement in the attack — was found dead in his apartment.

Nisman was scheduled to testify to a parliamentary committee the next day and was expected to accuse the government of president Cristina Fernandez Kirchner of swapping increased trade with Iran for a promise not to prosecute the Iranian officials who plotted the attack.

Nisman’s assassination is tentatively being considered as a suicide, with the jurist felled by a single bullet wound to the head and clutching the gun that killed him. But there are indications that it may have been something much more sinister.

The lack of an exit wound suggested the fatal shot was fired at a further distance than Nisman could have managed had the wound been self-inflicted. His last WhatsApp was a photo of stacks of documentation related to the next day’s testimony and Nisman had apparently given his maid a grocery list for the following week. A 10-person government security detail was reportedly pulled off of his apartment the night of his assassination. Most damningly, there was no gunpowder residue found on Nisman’s hands, physical evidence that he didn’t discharge a firearm prior to his death.

Theories abound as to who killed him and why. But no matter who’s responsible for Nisman’s death, the Iranian regime benefits.



Remains of the AMIA after the 1994 AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

After a decade of work, Nisman concluded that Iran’s government planned and executed the 1994 carbomb attack on the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), in which 85 people were killed.

As Washington Institute for Near East Policy scholar Matthew Levitt recounts in his book Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God, Iranian intelligence chief Ali Fallahian “was given overall operational responsibility for the attack,” which was approved by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on August 14, 1993.

The act was carried out through a terrorist cell organized by an Iranian-born and Buenos Aires-based Shi’ite cleric named Mohsen Rabbani who had been given a sinecure at the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires just months before the attack. Phone records connect the embassy to a number in Brazil’s border region belonging to a safe-house used by agents from Hezbollah, the Iranian regime’s adjunct in Lebanon, responsible for actually executing the attack.

The AMIA bombing was one of the worst anti-Semitic massacres anywhere on earth in decades. But it was part of what was then a consistent policy of big-ticket state-sponsored terrorism for Tehran’s revolutionary regime, which had only been in power for 15 years at the time.

Iranian agents assisted in Hezbollah and Shi’ite militia attacks on the US Marine Barracks in Beirut, Lebanon in 1983, and on attacks on the US embassy in the city in 1984 and 1984, that killed 394 people total. Hezbollah and a second Shi’ite group carried out of a series of attacks in Kuwait in 1983 that targeted the US and French embassies and nearly destroyed an oil terminal.

Tehran sent agents to assassinate 4 leading Iranian-Kurdish opposition activists  in a Greek restaurant in Berlin in 1992, while pro-Iranian elements carried out a series of attacks in Paris in the mid-80s to punish France for its support of Saddam Hussein’s government during the Iran-Iraq War.

In total, Iranian elements assassinated 18 regime opponents on European soil in the late 1980s and early 90s. And Tehran assisted in the Hezbollah attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires that killed 23 people in 1992.

In 1997, Mohammad Khatami was elected president. He helped shift the regime’s international posture away from the kind of revolutionary confrontation that had dictated the Islamic Republic’s foreign affairs up until that point.

Nevertheless, Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards continued to export terror with high-level regime approval while Khatami (1997 – 2005) helped re-fashion the Islamic Republic’s image as a regime whose actions could be considered increasingly within the mainstream of acceptable international behavior, an objective that’s been successfully advanced by Hassan Rouhani, the country’s current and similarly reform-minded president.

In 2011 Iranian agents were uncovered plotting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US in 2011. And in 2012 a Hezbollah suicide bombing targeted Israeli tourists in Burgas, Bulgaria, killing 6 people. (Hezbollah operatives came close to pulling off a major attack against the Israeli embassy in Bangkok, Thailand in 2012.) Aside from Shi’ite organizations like Hezbollah and Iraq’s Badr Group, the State Department’s 2013 citation of Iran group as a state sponsor of terrorism notes its support for Al Qaeda elements in Iraq, some of which later formed the Islamic State.

Consequently, the AMIA bombing is a reminder of a period in Iranian history that likely embassies many of the country’s current crop of leaders: A time when blatant and essentially unprovoked attacks on civilian targets inside of foreign countries was one of the signal elements of the regime’s “revolutionary” foreign policy.

Twenty years after the AMIA bombing, Iran has successfully shed its pariah status while retaining terrorism as an instrument of policy. Nisman’s investigation threatened to upset that balance, partly by exposing how Iran managed this feat in the first place.

His specific allegation that high-ranking Argentinian politicians had compromised the integrity of the investigation into the AMIA bombing at Iran’s behest only proved how badly political elites in both countries want the truth of the incident to remain buried. And it showed how Iran believed it could edge its way back to respectability while continuing to support and abet terrorism far beyond its borders.

Nisman’s testimony would have shown that the AMIA bombing wasn’t jut a discrete event, but an ongoing, two decade-long conspiracy that implicated Argentina and Iran in the execution and cover-up of a major act of terrorism.

Nisman’s death may end up being part of that very conspiracy. His absence keeps the story buried: It is now even less likely that the attack’s Iranian plotters will face justice in Argentina (or countries with extradition treaties with Argentina), and his death shields Argentine leaders who treated the AMIA attack as an dreary diplomatic inconvenience rather than state-sponsored mass murder.

However, Nisman believed the evidence he had collected would outlive him. Four days before his death, he told an Argentine TV interviewer that “With Nisman around or not, the evidence is there,” according to the New York Times.

李超人摒弃伟大祖国 勇敢地往西走

 

和记黄埔接 近以100亿英镑收购O2

 

西班牙电信(Telefónica)或将很快同意以100亿英镑现金价格，将其在英国的移动业务O2出售给李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔 (Hutchison Whampoa)。此举将会催生英国最大的移动运营商。

和 记黄埔周五确认，两家公司已就这一合并案开展了“数周”磋商。不过，和记黄埔财务董事陆法兰(Frank Sixt)表示，达成最终协议“还有许多工作要做”。O2为英国第二大移动运营商，购买方为和记黄埔旗下的Three。

按照酝酿中的协议，和记黄埔会以现金方式支付92.5亿英镑，还有10亿英镑则会推迟支付。陆法兰表示，如果得到监管机构的批准，这一并购大 约会在2016年年中完成。

周五早上，和记黄埔在香港上市的股票被停牌。

在圣诞节前与英国电信(BT)的磋商结束之后，西班牙电信就一直在与和记黄埔就出售O2的事宜磋商。

一位知情人士表示，周四晚，西班牙电信和和记黄埔的主管就这一协议的最终细节开展磋商。两家集团将留出时间专门处理这一交易。目前，双方都拒 绝置评此事。

这一并购或将改变英国移动通信市场。长期以来，为保证服务价格足够低廉，英国行业监管机构英国通信办公室(Ofcom)一直试图确保市场内至 少存在四家竞争者。Three尤其以提供价格低廉的通信服务知名。

和记黄埔在经历最近的企业重组之后，得以拿出更多资金在欧洲开展并购交易。据贝伦贝格(Berenberg)估计，重组或能将其资本开支能力 提升约90亿欧元到100亿欧元。

O2和Three的合并，或将催生英国规模最大的移动运营商。合并后的公司旗下将拥有逾3100万用户，约占整个市场的41%。排在它后面 的，是占市场32%的EE和占市场24%的沃达丰(Vodafone)。

不过，监管机构可能会敦促合并后的公司放弃部分用于广播移动信号的频段。至少，它需要以低廉的价格向其他使用这些频段的竞争者开放其网络。这 些竞争者包括TalkTalk、Tesco Mobile和维珍媒体(Virgin Media)。

考虑到国际投资者在两家集团的控股状况，尽管Ofcom可能对这一交易持保留意见，最终决定却可能由欧盟(EU)做出。

此前，欧盟曾批准过德国和奥地利等国的类似交易。不过，为了促进竞争，交易方还做了一定程度的让步。

 The French Imperialists Returning To Africa

 

France’s Military Is All Over Africa

This month’s terrorist attacks in France have been linked to Al Qaeda’s powerful franchise in Yemen. France has a built-in advantage if it decides on some kind of foreign military response to the attacks or to the more general p: the country actually has one of the most forward-deployed militaries in the world. 
And its military has been active recently. France has played a pivotal — and at times unilateral — role in tackling extremism and civil unrest throughout sub-Saharan Africa.
This role is aided by France’s history of colonialism in Africa. 

Although a painful aspect of modern French history, the often-brutal and exploitative colonial project left France with a network of major military bases across the continent that survives into the present day, as shown below and according to Radio France Internationale. 

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Currently, France has over 3,000 troops spread across five countries in Africa — Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad — as part of Operation Burkhane. Based in Chad, the operation aims at disrupting potential militants threat across the Sahel region of the continent. 

Aside from combatting jihadist militancy, France also pushed heavily for intervention in Libya during the the country’s uprising against Muammar Gaddafi, and has been involved in peacekeeping operations in various African countries.
Here are some of France’s most notable recent interventions. 

Mali

French soldiers patrol in the Terz valley, about 60 km (37 miles) south of the town of Tessalit in northern Mali March 20, 2013. France has deployed some 4,000 troops to Mali, alongside a regional African force, in a nine-week operation that has driven Islamists into desert hideaways and mountains near the Algerian border.

On January 11, 2013, France launched airstrikes against jihadist positions in northern Mali as part of Operation Serval.
The goal of the intervention was to prevent “the establishment of a terrorist state” after armed groups linked to al Qaeda took over vast stretches of Mali starting in March 2012, after a military coup in the capital of Bamako that led to a nation-wide power vacuum. France became involved in Mali following a request from the new Malian president and after jihadist columns began approaching the country’s populated south. 

French involvement in Mali eventually morphed into a larger operation that involved ground troops and French special forces.
France’s successes in Mali, according to RAND, could serve as a model for future US expeditionary warfare as French troops operated in small, efficient, and scalable units that made significant efforts to ingratiate themselves with the local population. 
Operation Serval, which ended in 2014 and at its height involved 4,000 French soldiers, was largely successful in helping Mali push the al Qaeda -inked rebels out from the north of the country.

France has followed Operation Serval with Operation Barkhane, a task force of 3,000 French soldiers dedicated to tracking Islamist rebels against the wider sub-Saharan area. 

Central African Republic

A French soldier patrols the villages in Bossangoa, north of the Central African Republic’s capital Bangui January 3, 2014. French and African troops deployed in the country have struggled to stop the tit-for-tat violence between Muslim Seleka rebels, who seized power in March, and Christian self-defence militia, clashes that killed more than 1,000 people in December.

In 2008, France moved 300 troops into the Central African Republic’s (CAR) capital of Bangui. The soldiers were involved in helping to helping to stabilize the country in the face of rebel attacks spilling over from the conflict-torn Darfur region of neighboring Sudan. 

In December 2013, France began reinforcing these soldiers in an attempt to stabilize CAR after a rebel coalition overthrew the country’s government, sparking a brutal sectarian conflict between Muslim and Christian armed groups. France increased the number of soldiers in the country to 2,000. But now that UN peacekeepers are being deployed to CAR, France is expected to dial back its number of soldiers in the country to 800. 

The UN Security Council, following a resolution submitted by France, will send 12,000 peacekeepers to the country. CAR faces ethnic-religious cleansing after the country’s Christian majority started carrying out reprisal killings against Muslims following the rebels’ overthrow of the government. 

Chad

French soldiers of the 16th Hunter’s Battalion secure the tarmac at Abeche airport in eastern Chad August 4, 2004 as the French military airlifts humanitarian aid. French troops are patrolling the area between the Sudanese border and refugee camps in eastern Chad and assisting aid organisations in distributing relief to people fleeing Sudan’s strife-torn Darfur region.

French troops have played some role in Chad since the late 1986 as part of Operation Epervier. The operation was designed to help Chad maintain its territorial integrity according to a bilateral agreement signed after Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s failed invasion of the country. 

However, French troops never fully left Chad. Instead, the French established a base at N’Djamena, Chad’s capital. A contingent of approximately 800 French soldiers remained at the base and helped provide Chadian authorities with aerial surveillance on the advance of Sudanese government-supported rebels, acting as a crucial force multiplier for Chadian dictator Idris Deby during battles in the capital in 2006 and 2008. 

As part of a global mission to tackle militancy across Africa, France launched Operation Barkhane in 2014 as a continuation of Operation Epervier and Operation Servel. Operation Barkhane will be headquarted at N’Djamena and 1,200 troops will be stationed in Chad. 

Côte d’Ivoire

France’s Licorne (“Unicorn”) forces prepare for a military operation in southern Ivory Coast April 11, 2011. U.N. and French helicopters attacked forces loyal to Ivory Coast’s Laurent Gbagbo, damaging the presidential residence in Abidjan and destroying heavy weapons after U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon ordered them silenced. Gbagbo refused to step down after his rival Alassane Ouattara won last November’s presidential election, according to results certified by the United Nations, reigniting a civil war that has claimed more than a thousand lives and uprooted a million people.

France has had an uneasy history with Côte d’Ivoire, also known as the Ivory Coast. 

After gaining independence in 1960, the two countries had positive relations that worsened under President Laurent Gbagbo starting in 2000. In 2002, a civil war split the Ivory Coast in half and the French intervened in Operation Unicorn. 

Peace was largely brokered in the Ivory Coast by 2007. But the country remained effectively divided and French soldiers continued to stay in the country. In 2011, violence again flared as Gbagbo refused to hand over power to his democratically elected successor, Alassane Ouattara. French troops played a key role in removing Gbabgo from power. 

Under France’s reorganization of its military in Africa, the French plan to reinforce their base at Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s capital. The base will be used as an entry point onto the continent as well as a logistical support post. 

Libya

A Rafale fighter jet makes a catapult launch off the flight deck, where in two seconds the jet goes from 0 to 250 kms per hour, aboard France’s flagship Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier March 28, 2011. The Charles de Gaulle continues to run air sorties against targets in Libya as France participates in the NATO no fly zone.

France was decisively behind the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya during the Arab Spring uprisings against Muammar Gaddafi. France’s interpretation of UN Resolution 1973, which imposed a no-fly zone over the country, was bolder than either the US’s or the UK’s position. 

The strikes against Gaddafi ultimately led to his overthrow and subsequent execution at the hand’s of the Libyan rebels. Since then, Libya has faced a rocky course as two rival governments, and various Islamist militias, have battled for power in the country. 
Concerned by the chaos and the flow of fighters and weapons from Libya into other parts of Africa, France has said that it is ready to strike militants crossing over the Libyan border. 

Djibouti

French special forces practice speed boat skills off the coast of Djibouti on March 5, 2007. The unit are part of a French battle group that includes the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle that are currently operating in the area.

Until France’s rebalancing of forces across Africa following its intervention in Mali, Djibouti was the sight of the largest concentration of French forces in Africa. From 1999 to 2001, Djibouti fought an insurgency that was eventually put down with French assistance.

Following the war, Djibouti became increasingly stable. France gave operations of Camp Lemonnier, a former Foreign Legion post, over to the government of Djibouti, which then leased it to the US in 2001. 

France maintains over 1,500 troops in Djibouti as part of a security force. The French forces in Djibouti have taken part in operations in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Ivory Coast.

Libyan Militants Just Seized A Central Bank Branch With As Much As $100 Billion Inside

Members of the Libyan pro-government forces, backed by locals, gather on a tank outside the Central Bank, near Benghazi port, January 21, 2015. 

Fighters loyal to a renegade general in Libya just seized a Central Bank facility in the coastal city of Benghazi that houses a reported $100 billion in cash and gold, according to the New York Times.
Libya’s ongoing civil war has split the country between an Islamist-supported central government based in Tripoli, and a rival nationalist administration held together by the renegade general Khalifa Hifter and based in the eastern city of Tobruk.

But the country had a couple of remaining bright spots, including Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, an oil industry positioned just across the Mediterranean Sea from western Europe, and a reported $113 billion in foreign currency, according to Al Hayat.

This was down from the $321 billion in reserves from before the country’s 2011 uprising, but was still enough to ensure that salaries would be paid and that the country’s oil infrastructure would continue to function.

Those reserves are diminishing quickly. Earlier this month, an oil facility in Es Sider burned for several days after being struck by an errant rocket, wiping out oil stocks equivalent to over 36 hours’ worth of nation-wide production. And today, Hiftar’s fighters seized the Libyan Central Bank’s Benghazi branch and its reported $100 billion.

The fire in Es Sider in January of 2015. This hasn’t been a great month for Libya.

As David Kirkpatrick of the New York Times reported, the Central Bank was one of Libya’s last functioning public institutions. Its governor, Sadik el-Kabir, had traveled abroad to reassure foreign leaders of the integrity of the Libyan state during the ongoing crisis while the Bank has succeeded in paying out salaries and keep the country’s oil infrastructure functional. It’s also kept its headquarters in Tripoli, despite the Benghazi branch’s presence in the part of the country controlled by Hifter’s self-declared government.
Even so, Kirkpatrick explains, the Benghazi office had been considered to be outside of politics, and the various combatants in the city — which include a constellation of Islamist militias — had largely left the facility alone.

But on Thursday, Hifter’s militia seize the building from the Tripoli government-allied Islamists guarding it. According to the Times report, Hifter’s men haven’t ransacked the facility’s vaults yet, but have “posted video images online that appeared intended to show that they had not broken into the vaults, at least not yet,” according to the Times.

Hifter wants to let the government in Tripoli know that he could control the majority of the country’s remaining cash and gold reserves if he wanted to.

But in the process, he’s shown that there’s a highly vulnerable $100 billion payoff sitting in the middle of Benghazi’s stateless vacuum.

Bob Lind of ‘Elusive Butterfly’ fame is elusive no more




Even the most devoted music aficionado could be forgiven for believing Bob Lind was a one-hit wonder. The once-reclusive folk singer enjoyed a brief stint at the top of the charts in 1966, courtesy of the hit “Elusive Butterfly.” Lind sang of love and longing, and like Dylan and Donovan, set hearts a-fluttering in the process.

And the song drew a following of its own; it was covered by more than 200 artists, including Cher, Aretha Franklin, Johnny Mathis, Dolly Parton and Petula Clark.
Sadly, Lind found it difficult to maintain the momentum “Elusive Butterfly” brought. Subsequent efforts failed to find an audience. Lind struggled with drugs, alcohol and a less-than-stellar professional reputation before he recorded a final album for Capitol Records, 1971’s “Since There Were Circles.” Although the effort pleased the critics, sales failed to follow.

Lind parted ways with the music business and initiated a career that found him writing novels, plays and screenplays. He relocated to Boca Raton, Florida, at the tail end of the 1980s, wrote a series of novels and penned a screenplay for a film called “Refuge,” which won the Florida Screenwriters’ Competition in 1991. (He also had the dubious distinction of serving eight years as a staff writer for the Weekly World News.)
Bob Lind publicity photo

Bob Lind is the first to admit that he can be a bit unyielding when it comes to his projects. But it’s for a good reason, he says. “I’d rather have no record deal and no career than relinquish control over what I say and how I say it.”

Now 72, Lind is in the midst of a comeback of sorts. It began in 2004, when his friend, folksinger Arlo Guthrie, encouraged him to consider returning to the concert stage. A live album, recorded at Miami’s Luna Star Cafe, appeared in 2006. In 2012, Lind released a new collection of songs, aptly titled “Finding You Again,” with the aid of an unlikely collaborator — producer and power pop auteur Jamie Hoover of the retro rock outfit The Spongetones. Most of the tracks sound like they could have been spawned from Lind’s earliest endeavors, replete with lush arrangements, flowery imagery, a bit of cabaret and a song or two that recalls the tangled tapestry that made “Elusive Butterfly” so memorable.

Lind’s renaissance has included album reissues, occasional gigs and homages from fans — the British band Pulp’s song “Bob Lind (The Only Way Is Down)” — and the documentary “Bob Lind: Perspective.” In 2013, Lind was inducted into the Colorado Music Hall of Fame, along with Judy Collins. Most recently, Lind’s somewhat dark play, “Lactose,” was featured in a stage reading at The Gable Stage Theater in Coral Gables, Florida.

GOLDMINE: What made you decide to leave the music business when you did?
BOB LIND: It wasn’t just me who made that decision. There’s this prevalent picture of me turning my back on a flourishing career. But the truth is that my planets hit retrograde long before I cut it all loose and moved to Santa Fe. Who can say what I was thinking? We’re all aware of the iciness of the music business and the fear and shallowness of the people who run it. What’s less often talked about is the immaturity of the artist who can’t take the industry realities in stride. I was one of those infantile, crybaby artists. I could blame it on my drug and alcohol use, but even today, clean and sober 37 years, I seem to be the same stubborn, quarrelsome, inflexible guy I was then. Still, not all my relationships go sour. I’ve been with my manager for nine years, and I’ve had the same girlfriend for 23. As far as I’m concerned, the people at Ace Records, my current label, are wonderful, sensitive human beings. I can’t say enough good things about them. Those relationships are in good shape. The bottom line is, I have to be listened to; I have to be heard. And the execs who were in charge of my career back in the ’60s wouldn’t listen to me. So I said, “F**k it.”

GM: By your own admission, you were difficult to work with. Why?
BL: I’m not good at artistic partnerships when I’m asked to compromise my creative decisions. As long as publishers and record companies are willing to help promote and sell my music, that’s fine with me. I need people who know the business better than I do. But when publishers want input into my songwriting, or record companies want control over what I record, it becomes “their” music. I’d rather have no record deal and no career at all than relinquish control over what I say and how I say it. Again, I have to feel like I’m being listened to. If I’m not, I know where the door is, and so do they. I still have a reputation for being argumentative and “difficult.” But I only get angry when I feel my voice isn’t being heard.

Bob Lind Elusive ButterflyGM: Jack Nitzsche produced your first two albums, including the single “Elusive Butterfly.” What was he like to work with?
BL: In a word: Perfect. When I came to Los Angeles and signed with World Pacific, I had never been in a studio before, if you discount those horrible sessions that became the album “The Elusive Bob Lind,” and, well, you should discount them. I knew nothing about recording, and there was nothing Jack didn’t know about it, having been [Phil] Spector’s right-hand man for many years. He loved my songs, and I trusted him to bring them to life. So I just wrote, sang and played and let him produce. Later on, there were conflicts and disputes between us. But they were personal and alcohol fueled. But on those two albums, there was no argument at all.

That said, I don’t think Jack was a better producer than Jamie Hoover. Yes, Jack is legendary and celebrated as a genius — all much deserved. Jamie, on the other hand, is sadly underrated as a producer, an arranger and particularly as a bass player. He produced my best album, “Finding You Again.” He understood my music, and he had the wherewithal to make the songs work. I can still listen to it and feel moved and amazed at what he did with those songs. Every one of them works, and there’s nothing — at least very, very little — that I would change. What’s more, he cut six more tunes with me that will be on my new CD, and all of them stand up to anything else I’ve recorded.

GBob Lind Finding You AgainM: What did it mean to have a new album after all those years?
BL: It felt good, especially to have a new album I can be proud of.

GM: Do you plan to do your next album with Jamie as well?
BL: Unfortunately, Jamie has decided he’s unable to continue as my producer. Part of it could well be the sheer logistics of him living in one state and my living in another. Shuttling files back and forth is a hard and unnatural way to work, and he doesn’t seem inclined to want to work it any other way. So, with reluctance, I’m open to the next producer.

GM: So what is your play, “Lactose,” about?
BL: It’s about sex and love and whether the two have anything whatsoever to do with each other. Mommies, don’t bring the kiddies. There’s plenty of “adult” language and “sexual situations.” There. That’s my politically correct caveat. The play takes a hard look at the question. The conflict is between a libertine poet who seems to have no sexual ethics whatsoever and a woman who believes our erotic urges should lead us into a deep loving bond with the one we’re attracted to. It’s about a poet who makes a superstar living on his book sales and tours. Other than the occasional Rod McKuen, Maya Angelou or Charles Bukowski, we know that sh*t never happens to poets. A woman comes to do a documentary on him, a reporter known for asking hard, penetrating questions. Through the course of the play, they’re both forced to confront their most deeply held beliefs.

GM: Is this your first theatrical work?
BL: No. I had three plays produced at The Group Repertory Theatre in L.A. And my short play “A Good Night” was a finalist in the National 10-Minute Play Contest two years ago. I think most of my fans know I write not only songs, but prose and poetry, as well. And since love, romance and man-woman passion is the subject of most of my songs, I don’t think people will be too surprised that this play is similarly themed. But again, one can go into a play with a depth and thoughtfulness that would be boring or uncomfortable in a song.

GM: You wrote a book, as well.
BL: It’s a novel called “East of the Holyland.” It’s a period piece about the folk-music, coffeehouse days of the early ’60s. It’s available from Lulu Press.

GM: How would you characterize your career thus far?
BL: Like those old westerns where the guy gets his foot caught in the stirrup while the horse is at full gallop. Sometimes, my career has been the horse dragging me along in the dirt. Other times, I’ve been the horse desperately hauling my career behind me. I prefer to stay in the saddle and avoid the abrasions and bruises as much and as long as I possibly can.

GM: In general, what are your plans going forward?
BL: To find a producer who cares about the songs and finish a new album by the end of 2015. I plan to tour as much as I can and to devote more time to my plays and novels. I also just finished the best book I ever wrote, a children’s novel called “Crossing the Night Sea.”

FCPO - Retracement Begins-  1/26/2015

 

The previous week's sell signal was only confirmed on last Tuesday when price went below 2298. So I have entered a new short trade. The MACD is negative and keeps falling. The Stochastic has now fallen below its 50's signal line and price has closed below the bottom band, both are offering more sell signals. The DMI has also turned negative.
I am placing my stop at above the bottom band.
 

The weekly chart is fast deteriorating as price has closed below the top band. The Stochastic has also turned negative. Both these 2 are flashing an initial sell signal. If I am trading the weekly chart, I would sell if price goes below 2222 in the coming week. The MACD stays positive and continues to rise. But it is still below the zero signal line. The DMI stays positive but the D+ has begun to drop and the D- started to rise. This means the buyers are leaving fast and sellers are rushing back in.
At this stage I would have no choice to read that the prior bullish scenario is been damaged. I have begun to trade from the shorts side until a new bullish signal appears next.

FKLI -  A Retracement Arrives - 1/26/2015

 

Last week I was thinking that the market may try to ride on a crude oil reversal. Though the reversal has  not materialize yet even with the death of the Saudi King, b ut FKLI seems to have found other excuse to rally upward again. Price has closed back above the top band on last Wednesday, the signal was confirmed by a positive Stochastic , MACD and DMI. I bought in again after Thursday price went high higher than the signal day high. Please take note that price has now closed above its recent fractal high of 1771.50.
Though the MACD has come back above the zero signal line, but the ADX remains below the 20s'. So with the Stochastic going into the overbought zone soon, I would remain cautious about the current rally. 


 

I has been noticing the DMI's extremity and warned of a possible retracement at the weekly chart . This retracement has arrived as price closed strongly above the bottom and middle band all within same week. With the Stochastic positive it has triggered an initial buy signal. The MACD is still negative but it has begun to turn around and we may see it becoming positive by the coming week. The DMI also remain negative but the D- has finally back off from its extremity and the D+ has begun to rise above 20's which is a strong indication that the buyers are returning with a vengeance. The ADX has begun to fall. This means the prior trend may has ended.
Fundamentally there is nothing much changes for Malaysian economy (which mean we are still screwed) . I think FKLI is anticipating an impending crude oil technical rebound and a sizable US Dollar retracement, hence the current rally Enjoy the ride but do not think for a moment we have resolved a crisis.

又一家香港大佬级人物抛售在港资产

继李嘉诚迁册风波之后，又一家香港大佬级人物抛售在港资产。

1月21日，据香港《星岛日报》报道，有“四叔”之称香港地产富豪李兆基名下恒基地产(00012.HK)或以150亿港元出售香港宏利金融中心写字楼。此外，恒基名下还有多栋商业物业正在洽购出售。

香港宏利金融中心写字楼系恒基地产和郭氏家族名下新鸿基地产联手打造的地标性建筑。

公开资料显示，宏利金融中心Manulife Financial Centre)地处位于东九龙的心脏地带，拥有超过100万平方尺的写字楼以及饮食、消闲及娱乐设施。宏利金融中心租户包括美国石油公司雪佛龙以及全球四 大会计师事务所之一的罗兵咸永道会计师事务。最为知名的租户系加拿大宏利金融集团，2009年其租用观塘223共8层楼面，成为观塘223的最大租户。并 拥有了该物业命名权。

路透社称大马经济“闪红灯”    

纳吉说“上帝保佑"

马来西亚经济仪表板闪红灯 商品价格疲软令经常帐有赤字之虞

路透新加坡1月21日 - 油价崩跌让马来西亚大宗商品导向的经济承受压力，受累的不只是出口和货币，该国庞大的债务也因此面临了不受欢迎的聚光灯。

马来西亚为主要的液化天然气和石油出口国，突然之间，面临了石油和其他大宗商品下跌，恐将致使其经常帐变成赤字的风险。

这将是马来西亚经济仪表板上第四个闪烁的红灯，该国经济所有领域：政府、家庭和资本帐，全都处于负债的情况。

这样的可能性令外资惶惶不安。外资已投资马来西亚债市450亿美元，提供给该国的贷款总额达2,080亿美元。

在2014年第一季和第三季之间，马来西亚的经常帐盈余缩减了近三分之一至76亿马币，随着油气出口获利下滑，出现经常帐赤字的情况日益逼近。

马来西亚已是国外资本的净进口国。

该国的家庭也是债台高筑。

政府可能一直到最近还在梦想着可以用大笔石油收入来支应他们所青睐的项目，举债规模相当于经济产出的53%，几乎堪比印度和中国这两个亚洲巨人。

稍微深入一点就很容易明白，为什么信贷市场目前将马来西亚列为东南亚风险最大的国家，为什么马币(林吉特)兑美元MYR=汇率跌至六年低点。

“经常帐收支转为赤字甚至刚好平衡，就会让马币汇率对资本流动的敏感性大大增强，”德意志银行亚洲宏观策略主管Sameer Goel说。

“在美元升势增强之际，马来西亚外债是该国严重汇率风险的根源之一。所有风险目前都彼此关联。”

任何一个领域内的压力可以轻而易举地影响到其他方面，如果信心出现危机，将会对该国的金融缓冲能力带来严峻考验。

“2012年以前马来西亚是个净债权国，但2013年之后却背道而驰，”法国巴黎银行驻新加坡的亚洲利率和外汇策略主管Mirza Baig表示。

“处于那种状况下，任何一个触发因素都可能使其面临市场波动风险。”

“现在(马来西亚)外汇储备减少，还有很高的负债，而且可能出现经常帐出现赤字，这是个转折点。”

最糟糕的情况是，如果油价长时间处于低位，使经常帐转为赤字，那么林吉特承受的压力会越来越大。

占据该国债市44%市场的外国投资人将会逃离。

下一个面临风险是马来西亚将要偿还的1,020亿美元短期借款，该国2014年底外汇储备为 1,160亿美元，刚刚够偿还。

随后可能会出现一个恶性循环，因外资撤离将迫使央行动用更多外汇储备。公债收益率(殖利率)和资金 成本将会上升，缺少资金的银行可能收回或取消放贷。

 A Housing Crisis Can Hobble A Nation’s Economy For Years


A property price crash can cripple a nation’s economy for years to come, according to a new paper by the IMF.

Although most people understand that the crisis of 2007-2008 led to a housing-price collapse and the Great Recession that followed, the new paper describes exactly why it is that a housing bubble also manages to trigger unemployment, revenue decline at corporations, and lower GDP.

One chart shows that even years later, consumer spending in Ireland — one of the hardest hit by the crash — remains up to 20% below its peak. (Private consumption is normally the largest component of a developed nation’s total GDP.)

For many countries, the run-up to the financial crisis was marked by the sharp concentration of investment in the housing market both by individuals and the financial sector.

Indeed, as Matthew Klein puts it in a recent article in FT Alphaville, “the growth of the financial sector since the 1970s can be attributed almost entirely to the explosion of mortgage credit (mostly residential but also commercial) rather than lending for business investment or traditional consumer borrowing”.

So what happens when the housing market goes bust?

A recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) paper looked at the fortunes of four European countries over the crisis that all experienced housing booms followed by busts — Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain. Although the differences in their experiences are marked in terms of the severity of the downturns they experienced, there are a number of common features that could prove crucial to our understanding of the impact of future economic shocks.

Firstly, falling house prices lowered demand both during and after the crisis. This is because lower prices reduce the amount of borrowing that households can raise against their property. Less access to credit tends to mean less spending, generally.

It also increases the loan-to-value ratio of mortgage debt (the value of the debt will rise as a percentage of the value of the property as prices fall). In some cases, this leads to negative equity, whereby even selling the house will not be sufficient to repay the debt. This traps people in their properties, prevents them from borrowing further against the property, or forces them into bankruptcy.

In all scenarios, the owners can’t clear their debts or take a profit on a sale — and that depresses spending too.

Moreover, housing has increasingly become the savings vehicle of choice. Substantial falls in the value of housing assets could have implications for the sustainability of people’s finances in retirement and force precautionary saving (people holding on to more of their income rather than spending it) in order to compensate for this perceived shortfall.

As you can see from the IMF chart below, falling house prices appeared to have weighed on private consumption in all of the countries that the paper looked at during the crisis. Note how far Ireland’s consumption has fallen from the peak:

IMF housing crash paper




However, the housing bust also impacted demand by curtailing investment both directly and by restricting small business investment, which is overwhelmingly secured against property. This has the short-term impact of reducing the amount currently being spent in an economy, but also longer-term costs as it holds back new business creation and prevents investment to expand existing small businesses.

IMF Housing Crash paper Investment


If prices fail to return to pre-bust levels, a housing crash can leave a large debt overhang, forcing households to focus on paying down their debts and constraining domestic demand. At the end of 2013 almost 30% of mortgages in the Netherlands were still categorised as “underwater” (the value of the property is worth less than the mortgage held against it), while in Ireland that figure is a staggering 52%.

By contrast the figure for the US is 13% and for the UK it is somewhere between 1.6-6.4%.

IMF Housing Crash paper mortgages


And this time really is different. As the IMF says:

“High private-sector indebtedness could be one factor behind weak domestic demand, as (i) both the peak level of debt and the increase in debt during the boom were much higher in the current episodes than during past episodes and (ii) a number of studies (e.g., IMF, 2012; Mian and Sufi, 2014) find that debt overhang tends to weigh heavily on growth following financial crises.”

This debt overhang will continue to exert an economic drag for years after the initial impact of the financial crisis has abated, holding down growth, lowering the ability of people to move to find new jobs and maintaining pressure on household finances. As such the effects of a housing crash should be seen as the long tail of the Great Recession beast — still thrashing about even after the threat of catastrophe has been averted.

Switzerland committed hara-kiri - who are the winners & losers and why the “Francogeddon” happened?

People queing at currency exchange offices as swiss franc gains value

“Switzerland committed hara-kiri, It is a “Francogeddon”, “a Tsunami for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country”, “Anyone who invested in Swiss currency yesterday just made a 30% return.”

Swiss Franc’s value increased almost by 30% against Euro just minutes after a shocking announcement from the Swiss Central Bank that it is abandoning the minimum rate (cap) of 1.2 francs against euro. This is a huge drop in one go and it has created an unprecedented turmoil not only in the currency market, but also for Swiss exporters and currency exchange offices in Geneva.
Currency exchange offices mobbed as people want to cash out the 30% profit

As Swiss franc has boomed in a blink of an eye, people have been flooding to exchange offices as they can now get more euros for the same amount of francs. The biggest winners here are the French, Italian, German and other people working in Switzerland, but paying their bills in their home countries.

Some people are considering changing all their Swiss franc savings and already dreaming about taking vacations in Europe and even buying cheaper homes in France.


Francogeddon swiss franc swiss people queing at the currency exchange as swiss franc gains value against euro swiss people queing at the currency exchange as swiss franc gains value against euro swiss people queing at the currency exchange as swiss franc gains value against euro swiss people queing at the currency exchange as swiss franc gains value against euro People queing at currency exchange offices as swiss franc gains value

 

francogeddon
A disaster for the Swiss exporters

While some individuals are rubbing their hands over the quick profits, the situation is a disaster for the business and stock markets. Swiss stocks have fallen dramatically experiencing the largest one-day fall in almost 30 years.

Swatch Group AG Chief Executive Officer Nick Hayek



     “I am at a loss for words, what the SNB has sparked here is a tsunami for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country.”

- Said the Swatch group’s boss Nick Hayek, as Swatch stocks took a 17% plunge.

A strong franc against euro is a nightmare for the biggest exporters as more than 40% of Swiss exports go to the European market. Swiss watches (Rolex, Cartier, Swatch, etc.), jewelry, pharmaceuticals and other goods simply become too expensive abroad. Swiss companies with revenues in euros will also suffer losses, as it will become more expensive to pay salaries to their Swiss workforce.


3 reasons why Swiss bank created this mess and removed the cap

In order to understand this, you must first understand why it introduced the temporary 1.2 rate (cap) of francs per euro. It was adopted in 2011 at the peak of euro zone crisis, when euro was falling.  If a currency is too strong it leads to deflation and a recession. And as Swiss economy relies on exports and tourism from the European union, it must keep the franc’s value low against the euro. If the franc gains value against the euro then Swiss exports become expensive for the buyers who have to buy francs for the payments. In order to maintain the cap Swiss bank is buying euros in huge quantities to keep the franc’s value low.

So what has changed since then, causing this radical move?

    1. The Europe has not recovered from the recession and the euro is still falling, increasing the upward pressure on the franc.
    2. Franc has always been an attractive investment (a safe haven) due to the low inflation and security. But with the weak euro zone and the crisis in Russia the Swiss franc has become even more attractive and Russian billionaires are converting their assets to francs in amounts like never before. And as you know -the bigger the demand for a currency – the higher it pushes its value.
    3. European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to start a quantitative easing programme (QE) next week on order to revive the region’s economy. This will mean that the ECB will be printing billions of euros, thus driving the value of euro down and the franc’s up. The QE programme is expected to inject $500 billion to $1 trillion into the economy by buying different bonds.

These factors have forced the Swiss National Bank to step out of the way.

Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan

    “In these circumstances, […] reinforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified. “We came to conclusion that it’s not a sustainable policy,”

said the SNB President Thomas Jordan told reporters in Zurich today.

Additional problem is that basically no one in Switzerland has hedged his exposure to currency risks. All the Swiss companies trusted the Swiss bank to keep the cap against the euro. The Swiss Central bank itself is expected to loose a fortune, as it has large foreign currency reserves.
Investors will have to pay for keeping their money in the bank!

In order to keep the franc low the Swiss Central Bank also cut the interest rates by 0.5% to -0.75%. This negative rate means that investors will not only be left without the usual profits from deposits, but they will have to pay for the pleasure of investing in Switzerland.


Many forex brokers suspend the trading of Swiss francs

Due to the unprecedented market conditions seen across Swiss Franc currency pairs today, the majority of forex brokers had to halt the trading involving franc. There simply was no liquidity for the franc.


To sum up – too much money can be bad for you

The last couple of months have been so crazy for the currency market that even people without any interest in the forex had to pay attention. We have seen how two opposite investment directions ruin different economies – Russian economy was and still is on a brink of collapse as money was being taken out, and now Swiss economy is in a lot of trouble because too much money is coming into their banks. Apparently the best option is to have “just enough” of everything.

 

批 孔尊孔都是巩固统治工具

1974年1月，中共发动了大规模的批林批孔运动

1974年1月18日，毛泽东批准江青、王洪文的要求，在 文化大革命中发起了一次批判林彪和孔夫子的政治运动，这也就是所谓的“批林批孔”。
当时中国各地的孔庙和相关文物古迹因此遭到极大破坏。儒家思想方面的学术发展也受到很大的阻碍。
时隔40年，中国国家主席习近平去年9月参加纪念孔子诞辰国际学术研讨会并发表讲话； 他还曾经前往孔府家乡曲阜考察，尊孔似乎再次成为社会常态。中国政府更是出资在世界各地设立数百家孔子学院。
很多人认为中共目前这种推崇传统孔子思想与当年毛泽东当年的批孔形成鲜明对比，但是BBC中文网采访的两名分析人士却认为，无论 批孔还是尊孔都是中共巩固政权的工具。
目前在美国的中国文革研究学者宋永毅表示，包括毛泽东和习近平在内的中国领导人，无论是尊孔还是批孔实际上与弘扬传统文化没太大 关系，而只是政治斗争中实用主义的手法和工具。
宋 永毅指出，因为儒家强调安定团结，所以总是一开始被统治者用作维持统治的工具。据说毛50年代初期也去过曲阜朝孔。但在文化大革命时期大 规模批孔，还是因 为他独裁者的排他性。现在的习近平与50年代毛泽东有相似之处。如今马列主义毛泽东思想不灵了，就希望用儒家思想。但是，如果他在个人崇 拜道路上越走越 远，很快就会批孔，很快就会反孔。 因为共产集权的排他性是无法避免的。
多维网前总裁、时事评论员何频也表示，从学术来讲，无论批孔还是尊 孔都没有什么问题，因为孔子和儒学在中国漫长的历史过程中都扮演了非常重要的角色。但是在中共体制下，在毛泽东时代的批孔，和如今习近平 的尊孔都是把中国 的学派政治化。虽然表面上是矛盾的，但实际上是一致的。 都是为个人独裁来服务。它是政治化和工具化的使用。
学者认为，在文革期间，林彪实际上一直紧跟毛泽东，因此批林就是在批毛 他指出，前面毛泽东批孔是为巩固自己独裁地位，而从江泽民开始到习近平时代的尊孔，从本质上看，也是为维护统治地位的噱头；他们 似乎想显示，中国人在走自己的道路，要崇尚自己传统文化中有价值的东西。
何 频还说，中国政府崇尚儒学，不是把它看作是一种新的传统文化，而是想利用它来拒绝西方文化的影响，拒绝基本自由、人权和民主的价值观，因 为马克思主义在全 世界已经破产了，中共无法再使用这种理论和价值观来实现民族价值。虽然中共在一些文件中还提到马克思主义，但是在现实生活中这种思想已毫 无支持力，因此他 们提出儒学，以取代马克思主义的意识形态，这种意识形态与中国人的民族感，外加中国的崛起穿插在一起，就变成一种新的政治工具。
批林批孔
1971年中共二号人物林彪坠机后不久，毛泽东发起了批判林彪的斗争。据说当局当时抄林彪家发现了 “克己复礼”的牌匾，而这便直接成为随即而来的“批林批孔”运动的导火索。
何频认为，毛泽东批林批孔是因为他看到林彪家中的有关孔子的材料后感到自己被林彪背叛了； 所以林彪所欣赏的东西，也是他要批判的东西。 后来的批林批孔运动不仅是为了批判林彪和孔子，而且暗示延伸到批周恩来，实际也是为警告周恩来。
不 过在这一方面，宋永毅的看法似乎不完全相同。 他说，毛泽东指示是从73年底，74年初开始大规模展开的。 林彪事件71年就发生。 在事件发生后的72、73两年，那时叫做批林整风。 为什么会转成批林批孔，是因为批林整风无法进行下去，原因是林彪和毛泽东犹如连体婴儿； 在各种政策方面，两人完全一致。 林彪实际上是紧跟毛泽东的思潮。 批林实际上是在批毛。
此时恰好有个偶然事件，是因在抄林彪家的时发现一部分材料，引用了“悠悠万事，唯此为大，克己复礼”等孔子的话。 这就成了突破口，从而把林彪和孔子扯在一起，把林彪归在极右思潮，这样毛泽东自己的极左思潮就可以得到保护。 批林批孔没有逻辑性，这是政治斗争的需要。
信仰真空？
宋 永毅认为，习近平完全是追随毛泽东的脚步走的，他的理想就是成为习泽东。 去年毛泽东诞辰120周年，习近平的讲话稿不到一个小时，八次引用毛泽东诗词，这是前无古人的。 即便在文革期间，周恩来等人，甚至即便是林彪当年也没有如此大规模地引用毛主席诗词。 这是红卫兵风格的东西，这说明了习近平的毛泽东情节。
孔子思想，儒学思想之所以现阶段在中国被社会所接受，有学者认为是因中国社会存在信仰真空问题。 由于缺乏信仰，民众精神空虚，导致道德滑坡、物欲横流、官场腐败、罪案频生，当局希望通过儒教来整治社会秩序，重建道德规范，等于说孔子儒学是一种思想武 器。
分析认为孔子学院在海外实际扮演利用孔子名号推销中共外交路线的角色 文革研究学者宋永毅认为， 上述只是原因之一。 习近平在政治斗争，尤其在对外关系上，搞极端民族主义，极端民粹主义。 他总是需要一个意识形态来支持他民族主义的东西。 这个信仰真空总要什么东西来填补。 习近平是想要在意识形态中搞专政的人，他总是要提倡一个什么东西。
时事评论员何频则对上述见解不敢苟 同。 他说：“我认为这是很可笑的说辞。 今天的价值真空，道德的冷落恰恰是中共官方虚假的意识形态在控制人们的思想。 官方所讲的东西和现实的东西是相反的。当局说社会是平等的，但是自从共产党执政以来，中国社会是最不平等的。 而且也形成各阶层之间的一种歧视。 道德虚空是中共自己蓄意造成的状况，现在就用更虚假的东西来掩盖这种道德虚空，这是为稳固政权的一个目的，和毛泽东搞个人独裁本质上是一样的。”
孔子学院
中共当局目前不止在国内推崇孔子和儒学， 还在世界各地开设孔子学院，希望向国际上倡导中国传统文化思想。 习近平就曾经多次表示孔子学院属于中国也属于世界。
分析表示，以习近平为首的中共希望用儒学来重建国际秩序，以实现和谐世界，与当年毛泽东向第三世界输出毛泽东的人民战争 思想，形成鲜明对比。
何频说，本来在全世界建立孔子学院也好、孟子学院也好是应该的， 但中国的孔子学院不能被世人接受的原因，一是被中共官方操纵， 二是他们想利用孔子学院来实施违背人权、自由、民主等价值体系， 三是他们实际上是想破坏一种崇尚自由的西方教育体系。
至 于有西方国家反对孔子学院，甚至有的地方决定停止孔子学院，何频认为是正确的。 他还指出，孔子学院不是对学术的提倡，而只是政治工具。 孔子学院后面经费的使用和人员安排都是官方操纵的。 如果这是民间组织，无论是美国民间组织还是中国民间组织，这都是可以的。 但是这是中国官方操纵的，不是西方多元价值的一部分，实际上是对西方价值观的一种摧毁。现在西方已开始注意到这点了。
宋永毅认为，毛时代很 简单的一条就是输出革命，输出毛泽东思想； 关键问题不在于思想本身如何，而是他们利用孔子学院来这个服务于国际上政治斗争。 习近平上台后，以至于在他上台前，中国斥巨资在海外设立孔子学院也反应出这个问题。 实际上，所谓孔子学院并没有讲孔子的东西，而实际上是在利用孔子名号来宣讲中共的外交路线， 也就是输出所谓中国特色的社会主义道路和中国梦。 宋永毅认为，孔子学院与毛时代的革命输出只是换了个说法而已。 他再次指出，这不是意识形态的东西，而是政治斗争的东西。

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砸爛孔子學院招牌 此乃掩耳盜鈴 借屍還魂的舉措 以為世人都是弱智者 最大的疑點是在中國提倡儒家思想挽救信仰失落 補救馬恩列思及偉大毛澤東的理論失去作用 以此填補 重新體現中國傳統可取 重拾人心 掩蓋共產黨凡因貪腐把中國弄到一團糟 瀕於亡黨亡國(共產黨自己坦承) 我們不能足信 我懷疑其有不可告人的目的 向世界各國造就一種虛假的假象 表達中國現在回轉到倡導中國傳統文化思想 不再是殘酷的階級鬥爭 內部不是你死我活的權力爭奪 但中共建黨以來都是內部殘暴的爭奪 毛手段高超能打倒身邊政敵 不十數次剷除了異己維持建國以的三十多年牢固統治 到今天習上台也經歷了周薄的風險 這是公開的秘密 上台後的一切都是鞏固他本身統治 在世界各國辦孔子學院 開首就說有掩人耳目之嫌 有否是一個特別機構(不需直白) 這是我想道��的因由
蘇源, Sydney Austrlia
讲 得好_____"從學術來講，無論批孔還是尊孔都沒有什麼問題，因為孔子和儒學在中國漫長的歷史過程中都扮演了非常重要的角色。但是 在中共體制下，在毛澤 東時代的批孔，和如今習近平的尊孔都是把中國的學派政治化。雖然表面上是矛盾的，但實際上是一致的。 都是為個人獨裁來服務。它是政治化和工具化的使用。"
实际上是共产主义那一套不被大众接受，要利用孔子和儒學来进行“包装”。
外部势力,
共产主义只会恶性循环下去，总有一天会循环到他们自己脑壳上
拆尼日
所以批也不是尊也不是，不管做什么都不是
Zzzzz, Sydney
能让国家富强，人民生活越来越好，巩固统治有什麽不好？总比像前苏联那样分崩解体，沦为今天的俄罗斯姥姥不痛舅舅不爱好得多，中国 可没有这么多原油可卖！
至于那帮立志让中国成为“殖民地三百年”的民运们更不靠谱，看看他们在国外为了争夺那一点资助款打得头破血流，就知道他们绝不会为 老百姓办事了！
buping,
【批孔】【尊孔】並非中共鞏固統治的工具，實是中共一向的【作風】。中共就是這樣的：昨天打倒的，今天可以擁護；今天擁護的，明天 可以打倒。今天被吹捧上天的那個【大大】，不知明天的命運會如何？
孟光, Hong Kong

Swiss National Bank Screwed The World For Its Own Selfish Goal

Here Are The Behind-The-Scenes Politics In The Decision To Let The Swiss Franc Cause Market Chaos

The Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon its cap on the Swiss franc’s value against the euro last week threw the financial markets into chaos.

There are lots of theories as to why the central bank chose to act, but there is one that was clearly underappreciated — the role of Swiss local government in lobbying for dividend payments.

The SNB is unlike other central banks because it is not in fact owned by the Swiss government but is a listed company with shareholders that include Swiss administrative regions, know as cantons, as well other public bodies and private individuals. As Cullen Roche points us to:

At the end of 2013, 52.5% of these shares were held by cantons, cantonal banks and other public authorities and institutions. The remaining shares were in the possession of private individuals and legal entities in Switzerland and abroad.

Who owns the central bank is not terribly important. What is important is that the SNB has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders — that is, a responsibility to act in their best interest. And here we may start to understand the pressures that the bank was under.

Firstly, the SNB pays a dividend to its shareholders capped at a maximum of 6% of net profit as well as a flat fee to local governments. As such, shares in the bank tend to act very much in line with a Swiss government bond with a 6% coupon.

This arrangement provides a cool 1 billion francs ($1.15 billion) annually split between Switzerland’s 26 cantons in proportion to their populations and, most importantly, was considered a safe and reliable stream of income. In fact, according to the Swiss central bank, the dividend had been paid every year for over 100 years. Until 2013. The reason? A collapse in the price of gold hurt the bank’s gold asset holdings.


The 30% drop gold prices over 2014 caused a loss of 9 billion francs, meaning that the central bank was unable to pay out under Article 31 of the Swiss National Bank Act.

The failure to pay a dividend proved a shock to local government finances — a fact that the central bank was clearly aware of. In its explanation for cancelling the 2013 dividend Jean Studer, President of the Bank Council, noted that the consistency of dividend payments reflected “special factors in the last two decades meant that payments were very handsome”. However, he reminded the cantons that “the SNB has regularly emphasised that there is no guarantee for the distributions“.

And yet after the cancellation the cantons started to complain to the central bank. Bloomberg reports that “cantonal budget chiefs earlier this month urged the SNB to give them more money for 2014 to offset shortfalls in revenue from other sources”. As majority shareholders in the business the bank had a duty to listen to but not necessarily to act on their concerns.

At the start of this month, the SNB said it expects to book a net profit of 38 billion francs for 2014 allowing it to restart its dividend payments. In its statement it made clear that as a result “ordinary profit distributions of CHF 1 billion to the Confederation and the cantons can be resumed”.

Yet less than a week later the central bank abandoned its currency peg, sending the franc soaring and providing the much publicised mark-to-market currency losses estimated to have been around 13% of GDP (CHF75 billion) on Thursday. Letting the franc appreciate against the euro means the value of euro assets that the central bank built up on its balance sheets (the euros that it bought to defend the cap) fall in CHF terms.

So why did they act in a way that almost guaranteed losses for the central bank’s balance sheet?

One simple (though incomplete) answer, is the timing. Having just dealt with the dividend payment for 2014 and with the rest of 2015 to try to reverse the losses it has just suffered, the central bank appears to have attempted to seize the moment to abandon a peg that it had clearly long been uncomfortable with. It has a whole year to find the money for the 2015 dividend, after all, even if it’s hurting right now as its foreign currency holdings sink in price.

Given that SNB President Thomas Jordan believes that the franc remains “greatly overvalued” at its current level he will no doubt be expecting it to weaken somewhat from here — lessening the market losses on the euro assets held by the central bank.

Of course, such logic is effectively a gamble on the eurozone crisis. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to undertake quantitative easing on Thursday, the major impact of which may well be to weaken the euro further from its current level (and therefore potentially drive the franc up in the short-term). If it has a positive effect on the region’s prospects, then it is possible that eurozone growth will pick up, and with it the currency.

If it fails, however, the Swiss could find themselves taking in more capital flows from Europe seeking a “safe haven” place to park capital. You can see the SNB’s decision to drop its interest rate on deposits again to a staggering minus 0.75% — the bank takes a slice of your money rather than paying interesting — as an effort to limit this effect, though negative rates have so far proven ineffective at achieving this. Investors still see the franc as a safe harbour from losses, even at a price of 0.75%.