FCPO - The Bulls Slipped - 9/16/2013

 
 

The previous week new buy signal did not go through as the following Monday's price did not go above the signal day's high of  2461. On the following day, thing swiftly got deteriorated with price went back down and closed below the top band. This has formed a new sell signal with confirmation from a negative Stochastic . I sold on the next day when price went below the signal day low of 2397. With the falling and low ADX, I closed off the position on last Friday when price went above the prior day high of 2355 with a small profit. Though the Stochastic and MACD are still falling, I am a little cautious when price has not stay below the bottom band but instead they kept trying to stay above that level. Furthermore the Japanese Candlestick has been a long legged Doji on last Friday,  this type of Candlestick usually hinting towards a possible reversal ahead. But if I am wrong,  I can always go back in and sell if price can close below the bottom band again.
The flat ADX could either mean the market is going into another listless mode or it could be forewarning us the trend may be reversing soon. I will have to wait for a few more sessions to get a confirmation.
 
The weekly chart has turned murky again as both the Stochastic and MACD remain positive and continue to rise. But the DMI has fallen back to the bears again as it has returned to negative side again. Worst news for the bulls is that price has now closed below the top band. But as the ADX continues to fall, I am still reading all this as a listless market and prior trend has ended and a new trend has NOT emerged yet.

Last week, India's Godrej and UK's Fitch commented that CPO is going to the bears by citing the usual fundamentals and statistics. But I remain committed to my earlier established view that a super bull is still possible with the charts setups remain intact. But my "worry" now is that the market may go do one more round of sell down to shake off the weak bulls before I can see a new rally. That's why I have been paying a lot of attention on its recent fractal high of 2491 or even the currently not yet confirm new fractal high of 2485. The market really need to see price clear off above these levels to see the arrival of the super bull. By the way, ever since I started trading the FCPO market, I notice everytime when the Indian gentlemen comment on the market, the market almost always go the opposite direction of their opinion. Well, if this is a consolation of some sort !!!!