Thursday, October 7, 2010

巨富一吨一吨买黄金  



My fellow Feng Shui Los and I often joke about how gold is the "all-weather" investment. When the economy is good, pundits claim gold will rise because of inflation. When the economy turns bad, gold bugs claim it will soar on safe-haven buying. According to conventional wisdom, there is no losing scenario for the yellow metal. All the "experts" just love to churn this story.

Today this appears on Nanyang front page taking up 1/4 of a page. It is no doubt a very sensational news.
These days one would get to read similar hot hot news on gold everywhere. For me whenever the media starts to get hysterical over a market, it is usually prudent that you should start to think of what MAY happen soon from the OPPOSITE direction.

First thing the real argument about gold is an investment class is disputable as gold is hardly considered as an industrial metal. The most likely explanation about human's strange love affairs with it is its place is history/myths (Ali Baba / Greek myths etc). Secondly is one single item that most of the 'experts' have NOT been telling you is that, with inflation adjusted USD value, gold would need to do 1,800 now in order to reach back its past historic high. In another word, if you had bought gold at its last historic high and hold on, you are still in a losing position today.

 
 
And most important of all, all the Feng Shui charts seem to hinting for a possible major correction/collapse ahead rather than continuing strength. And the moment comes for USD to whip it up, that would be the days you see this shining metal go down and eat dust.

What is of paramount importance is that , no matter what, one MUST NEVER fall in love with a market. A market is never a Marvin Gaye. There is absolutely nothing romantical about them except profit and loss.


涨破表每安士1340美元  巨富一吨一吨买黄金

●南洋商报
(纽约6日讯)黄金期货价格5日冲破每安士1340美元;瑞银集团(UBS)透露,担心经济二次衰退的金字塔顶端客户群,已开始大买金条,部分投资人买进 的数量甚至以吨计。

《经济日报》报道,市场担心美国联储局将展开新一轮的量化宽松,使美元进一步走贬,也带动另类资产——黄金的需求,12月黄金 期货价格5日与欧元同步走扬,盘中上涨1.85%,创下每安士1341.20美元(4144.31令吉)新高。

此外,现货金价也涨1.86%至每安士1339.70美元(4139.67令吉)。

或面临获利卖压

巴克莱资本技术分析员报告说,黄金的线型依然强势,且显示未来几个交易日将进一步走高。

但巴克莱分析员库伯也警告,随着年底接近,市场可能面临部分投资人获利了结的卖压。

不过,全球最富有人士仍大量买入黄金。瑞银极富(UHNW)财管部门的全球主管史泰德勒说,为了规避经济再次衰退的风险,巨富投资人选择买进 实体黄金、矿业公司股票和指数型基金。

瑞银极富财管部门服务的客户至少有5000万美元(1亿5450万令吉)的资产,瑞银建议这些顶级客户将资产的7%到10%用来持有黄金等贵 金属。

巨富投资组合重心

史泰德勒举实例说:“有一对夫妇真的买下一吨多黄金,并将黄金移往他处。”以现今的价格计算,那次买进的金额约值4200万美元(1亿 2978万令吉)。

史泰德勒说,虽然贵金属是否为长期投资的聪明选择仍有疑问,但这已成了巨富投资组合的重心。

“假如你和巨富投资人交谈,他们对经济的不确定性升高到过去几年的最高水准。”

由于美国经济数据疲弱且市场担心美元贬值,瑞士私人银行宝盛集团亚洲投资长也建议,富人投资人可将部分资产转成防御性高的 黄金。


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