Sunday, February 8, 2015

FCPO - Though A Bit Late But Bull Comes For The Party - 2/9/2015

The market came back from a holiday and what a different picture has emerged ! Price closed back up above the bottom band on last Wednesday, so I closed off my shorts position on the following day.  I also begin to buy as the Stochastic has turned positive. I was a bit more adventurous as the Stochastic still has not cross above its 20's level. Of course I did not enter in a big way yet but merely went in some to test the water. But what followed was really incredible as the next day price rallied 110 points in a day. This is something that does not happen frequently. As the Stochastic has already crossed above its 20's level on that day, I added more long positions.

The Stochastic is now marching toward its 50's signal line, upon crossing above it, I would add on more buy positions. The MACD has also turned positive and now is getting ready to cross back up above its zero signal line. This is also very important as it would mean the market is back into a bullish cycle. The DMI has turned positive on last Thursday with the D+ goes beyond the 30's level, this means the buyers are really very confident of themselves. Since last Friday price has gone above Thursday high, it would also confirmed a DMI buy signal.

Price has now closed just below the top band on last Friday, so if it can go close above the top band, it would flash another buy signal and another confirmation that this market is back into the bull's control.

The weekly chart reversed completely all within 3 trading days. Price has crossed above the middle band and top band now closed above it. The Stochastic has turned positive again. The MACD stays positive and continues to rise toward its zero signal line. This is getting very interesting as if it can go above the zero line by the coming week, then it would signal the return of a new bullish cycle. The DMI has also turned positive with the ADX falling. So unless I can see price closes above its recent fractal high of 2394, I would still read the current weekly chart as a sideway market.

Last week I was about to give up on my earlier bullish opinions on this market. "Luckily" the crude oil's technical rebound came in time to reverse the FCPO market. And as at now, my previous bullish reading on this market is back in business. With both the "black" and "white" oil back in a bullish cycle , our country will at least get a breathing space. But do not think for a moment that we are out of trouble. We are certainly not. 

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