如果伊斯兰国抓走了我 们一名中国人呢？  

Chinese Ask：What If the Islamic State Captured One of Us？

“今天我和一位朋友在讨论如果伊斯兰国抓走的是一个中国人，会发生什么。”2月3日发布的一段视频显示落入“伊斯兰国”恐怖组织手中的约旦飞 行员 Moaz al-Kasasbeh 被活活烧死。这是中国社交媒体上就该视频的众多评论之一。该视频展示了令人作呕的镜头，在中国广传开来，并重燃了一些争议：关于伊斯兰国的发迹应该指责 谁，以及中国对此应该做什么。

在微博上，中国网民就这一最新视频应该指责谁意见分歧。许多人继续呼应中国主流媒体长期以来对美国的批评。一位网民写道：奥巴马“继续虚张声 势，嘴上开火”，另一位网民认为问题的根源是西方的“干涉”及美国在中东宁愿“为了经济利益而流血”。一位网民评论道，“今天是一个法国人， 或是日本人，或是约旦人，明天呢？是人命重要，还是让美国‘头疼’重要？如果我们也想要保护世界和平的话，那么这也是让我们头疼的问题。”另 一个问道：“如果有一天，伊斯兰国绑架了我们的一个人，我们会做什么？除了在网上愤怒的 谩骂，我们只是在这里坐等悲剧。”

极少有评论如此直接地敦促（中共）采取行动。许多网民不是呼吁中共政府去帮助，而 是反复呼吁联合国或国际社会采取行动。

很难确切地知道中共政府认为其下一步该采取什么行动。在最近这一视频发布后，中共当局很快就对伊斯兰国进行了谴责。在2月4日的一个新闻发布 会上，中共外交部发言人洪磊表示中国“反对一切形式的恐怖主义”，该措辞与中共外交部2月2日对日本记者后藤健二被（伊斯兰国）斩首的回应实 质相同。中共国家主席习近平对此没有公开讲过话。

中共政府的立场可以通过2月4日国营央视网站上一篇刺耳的社论看到迹象。这篇由中国研究中东的学者李绍先写的文章，藐视美国总统奥巴马对全球 “必须团结起来”反对伊斯兰国的声明。文章说“国际社会在打击和消灭类似极端组织的问题上早已空前团结、高度共识，并不会因为约旦飞行员卡萨 斯贝被杀害或其他国家的无辜平民还将被杀害而更加‘强硬和团结’。现在的问题并不是团结和共识，而是有效的行动。”

李继续写道：“有人说，伊斯兰国是世界最强大的恐怖组织，拥有3万多兵力和20亿美元，但这和美国的军事力量相比没有任何意义，因此问题并不 在实力……而在行动的决心。”

李补充道：美国没有下定决心“不得不让人深思”，并总结说“可以肯定的是，在美国下定决心消灭伊斯兰国之前，类似日本人质和约旦飞行员被杀害 的情形还会出现。”这篇文章中没有一次提到中共。

中共不大可能最终会参与（对抗伊斯兰国）。2014年8月，中共媒体开始埋怨说伊斯兰国可能会针对中国的领土，尤其是有众多穆斯林的新疆。 2014年7月，声称是伊斯兰国领导人的Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi 点名中国是“强行剥夺穆斯林权利”的其中一个地方。但是北京总体上是避免涉及海外的武装冲突，并继续小心地煽动反穆斯林的紧张局势。美国没有发布官方公开 声明呼吁中国加入该联盟，可能是希望避免给北京幌子来进一步侵害新疆的人权，因为北京常常是在反恐的旗帜下进行的。

如果伊斯兰国的录像中涉及一名中国人，并进入中国活跃的社交媒体，那么就可能完全改变这一脆弱的公式。如果出现后者的话，要求中国采取更多行 动抗击伊斯兰国的公众压力会势不可挡，其中夹杂着悲哀、民族主义以及长期以来内部的无奈。毕竟，中共政府和外国对手是中国网民喜爱的攻击目 标。一位网民写道“让我们期望他们抓到一名中国人时，那是一名贪官！”那些官员如此富有，该网 民写道，他能够支付得起任何赎金“救出他自己”。

原文Chinese Ask：What If the Islamic State Captured One of Us？

Chinese Ask: What If the Islamic State Captured One of Us?

Inside the world's No. 2 power, grassroots calls to fight the terrorist group are growing.

“I was talking with my friend today about what would happen if the Islamic State caught a Chinese person.” Provocative though the notion may be, that comment is one of many in Chinese social media discussing the Feb. 3 release of a video showing the death-by-burning of downed Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh at the hands of the terrorist group calling itself the Islamic State (IS). And it shows how the sickening footage, widely shared and broadly reviled in China, has re-ignited controversy about who’s to blame for the rise of IS, and what — if anything — China should do about it.

On Weibo, China’s massive microblogging platform, users are proving divided about whom to blame in the wake of the latest video. Many continued to echo longstanding mainstream media criticism of the United States; Obama “continues to swagger and fire off his mouth,” wrote one user, while another saw Western “meddling” and U.S. willingness to “spill blood to benefit economically” in the Middle East at the root of the problem. But many pushed back. One commenter wrote, “Today it’s a French person, or a Japanese person, or a Jordanian person; and tomorrow? Is it human life that matters, or giving the U.S. a ‘headache?’ If we too are to protect world peace, this is also a headache for us.” Another asked, “If one day ISIS kidnaps one of our own, what will we do? Besides angry online diatribes, we’re just sitting here waiting for a tragedy.”

Few comments urged action so directly. Rather than calling on China’s government to help, many web users repeatedly called on the U.N. or the world community to mobilize. In some popular comments, like the statement that “we must work together to lay siege” to IS, or the insistence that the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (which include China) “strike hard,” the critique of government inaction was thinly veiled. Others seemed ignorant of ongoing efforts; one popular statement called on “the world to organize a coalition army” to attack IS, when in fact such a coalition was already organized in September 2014, comprising dozens of countries, with the U.S. at the helm. (China has offered help, but independent of that coalition, and it’s not clear whether it has followed up.)

It’s hard to know exactly what China’s government thinks its next move should be. Authorities there were quick to condemn IS after the recent revelation: At a Feb. 4 press conference, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hong Lei said China “opposes terrorism in all its forms,” language substantively identical to what the ministry proffered on Feb. 2 in response to the recorded beheading of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto. A statement by the U.N. Security Council, of which China again is a permanent member, likewise condemned the violence. China’s president, Xi Jinping, has said nothing publicly.

One indication of the Chinese government’s stance comes via a strident Feb. 4 editorial on the website of powerful, state-run China Central Television. Written by a Chinese Middle East scholar named Li Shaoxing on the network’s behalf, the piece makes light of U.S. President Barack Obama’s statement that the world “must stand united” against IS, writing, “The world has already been united without precedent in its consensus to strike at and eliminate the organization. It’s not going to become even more ‘firmly united’ after al-Kasasbeh or another country’s innocent is killed. The problem now isn’t unity or consensus, it’s effective action.” Li continued, “Some have said that ISIS is the most powerful terrorist organization in the world, with 30,000 soldiers and $2 billion, but this means nothing compared to U.S. military power. So the problem isn’t power [either] … it’s the resolve.” Li added that the U.S. lack of will “inevitably causes one to think,” concluding darkly, “it’s certain that before the United States truly determines to eliminate ISIS, the circumstances of another Japanese hostage or another Jordanian pilot being killed will occur again.” The article did not mention China once.

    Thenotion that China could eventuallybecome involved, either by dint of its rising-power status or a tragic run-in with IS, is unlikely, but not outlandish.

The notion that China could eventually become involved, either by dint of its rising-power status or a tragic run-in with IS, is unlikely, but not outlandish. In August 2014, Chinese media began to murmur about the possibility that IS might target Chinese territory, particularly the heavily Muslim region of Xinjiang. In July 2014, purported IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi named China as one of those places where “Muslims’ rights are forcibly seized.” But Chinese authorities generally seek to avoid more than token involvement in armed conflicts abroad, and remain chary of inflaming anti-Muslim tensions given regular violence between Uighurs, a majority Muslim ethnic group that mostly live in Xinjiang, and the majority Han. The United States, which has not issued an official public statement calling on China to join the coalition, likely wishes to avoid lending China cover for further human rights infringements in Xinjiang, often carried out under the banner of anti-terrorism.

That delicate equation could change entirely were an IS video involving a Chinese person to enter the country’s hyperactive social media. It could be an assailant — some reports estimate that 300 Chinese citizens have already gone abroad to fight with IS — or a victim. In the latter case, public pressure for China to do more to combat IS could become overwhelming, combining sorrow, nationalism, and longstanding internal frustration that China’s military isn’t more assertive. China’s government, after all, is a favorite target of Internet users along with foreign foes. One user darkly took aim at both: “Let’s hope when they catch a Chinese person, it’s a corrupt official!” The bureaucrat would be so rich, the user wrote, he could afford any ransom and “save himself.”

Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, Yiqin Fu, and Shujie Leng contributed research.