Friday, April 10, 2015

FCPO - Win The Bull Wins This Time ? - 4/6/2015
Displaying Oriental FCPO D.png

Price did not go higher than 2204 last week but instead offered another new buy signal on Thursday when price closed above the bottom band again after went below the bottom band the day earlier. The signal was complimented by a positive Stochastic. The signal cleared my filter test on Friday when price went higher than the signal day high. I am placing my initial stop a bit lower at below 2148 instead of at below the bottom band. This is because the ADX is still low, price may fluctuate again before establishing a new trend.

The Stochastic stays positive and rising. The MACD has also turned positive and begin to rise. It would need to rise back above the zero signal line in order to get back to the bullish story. Of course if price can clear above 2204, it would be more assuring for the buyers. The DMI though remains negative but the D- has been falling from the 30's, this means the sellers are really losing their faith. The D+ has begun to rise, but it is still below the 20's, so i would not say the buyers are very confident yet. The ADX has just begin falling again, indicating a new minor cycle may be beginning.
Displaying Oriental FCPO W.png

The weekly chart remains on the side of the bear as both the MACD and Stochastic are still falling.  The DMI stays negative and it is still wiggling. The ADX remains flat and lowly, so with these 2 , I am still thinking that this market is range bounding. The only bright spot for the bull is most probably the price has closed above the bottom band. And the Japanese Candlestick formed is  an Engulfing Bullish Line where a white candle body completely cover up the previous black candle real body. As this is appearing at the end of a recent down trend, it is extra bullish. But there is no new buy signal here as the indicators have not confirmed.

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The monthly chart is still unable to confirm any new direction as Japanese Candlesticks have been lining up for the past 6 months up and down the bottom band. The MACD remains negative though it has been trying to cross up. The Stochastic stays positive. The DMI also stays negative but the D- has been falling which means the sellers are losing faith. But meanwhile the D+ has also been flat, which mean the buyers are also uninterested. The ADX stays flat and is below 20's, so there is no trend in this market.

I think there is a good chance for FCPO to rise next. As at last Friday, many of the currencies that I have been waiting for a major reversal seem to be flashing their initial signal. I would not surprise if crude oil will follow next. All that should give our Ringgit and FCPO a good chance to enjoy some serious rally.

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