Monday, April 13, 2015

FCPO - How Long Will The Delay Be ? 4/13/2014


Displaying Oriental FCPO D.png

I was suspicious of the previous week's bullish push so I maintained a tighter stop. As price failed to go higher after closing above the top band on last Monday, I moved up my stop to the prior day's low. It was taken out on last Wednesday.  And another new sell signal came on last Thursday when price closed below the bottom band with the Stochastic turning negative. I sold on the next day when price went lower than the signal day low. Again I am getting wary of this new trade as price closed with a white body Japanese candlestick, so I am placing my stop at the 2139 just in case market decided to change its mind again.

The MACD has turned negative and as I have been saying here the past 2 weeks, it needs to go back up above the zero line soon or I would lose the bullish scenario story. The DMI has also turned negative and it is now above the 30's and the D- fall below the 20's, so this means the sellers are getting stronger and the buyers are leaving. But with all the overall bearishness, the ADX is still falling and below 20's, so it is still a market without any major direction.

Displaying Oriental FCPO W.png 

The previous week's bullish Japanese Candlestick failed to get a confirmation. And the past week it got an exact mirror image of that candlestick ! It has a Engulfing Bearish Candlestick. This candlestick stick formation is usually a bearish sign, but in FCPO market, it may bear a possible good news. As FCPO has been in a recent downtrend cycle, there is a possibility that this Engulfing Bearish candlestick may be its last one in the cycle. Of course Japanese Candlestick is definitely NOT a sure-win trading methodology , so I would need to see the next candlestick to close above either the bottom band or the current week's candlestick open in order to confirm another reversal.

As like what has been happening to FCPO market, the forex and crude oil market have been resembling its friskiness over the past week. But the bullish chart formations in those overseas market charts have been so obviously strong, I really doubt it can hold up the bull rally for long.

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