KCPO:- Are Speculators Betting On A Bernanke's QE3 ?- 7/18/2011

 

I placed my stop at 3045 last week as it was the lower Bollinger Band minus 3 points. As the week progressed, the stop hit on last Tuesday's retracement. So this is one of those "unfortunate" incident that we get to meet in trading business. Since all the indicators remained positive and price still closed above the lower band, I re-enter long position when Wednesday's price action tokk out Tuesday's high.  This time I set stop at the middle band support of 3094-3= 3091.

The Stochastic continues to climb and so is the MACD. If we can see price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band, it would be a more solid signal to buy. As the DMI is still negative and the ADX falling, the current stage of the market can only be considered as a counter trend move. But as prices have already break up above their previous fractal high, I think we may eventually see a stronger up move soon.

 

The weekly chart remains bearish as the MACD continues its slide. Price is still below the lower band and the DMI remains negative. Though the Stochastic may be trying to stage a rebound from its oversold area. But at this time, we should NOT place too much weight on this one yet. I would rather suggest you to keep an eye on the lower band's resistance of 3146. If we can see a closing of above this level, then the story may has begun to change.

Are the commodities speculators betting on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's QE3 ?