The War

 

 

A New Command for the Same War
A few days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to replace the military commander in charge of the Ukraine war with Gen. Sergei Surovikin, and thus change the military culture of the conflict itself. The new commander immediately ordered a barrage of missiles aimed at Ukraine. The Russian goal is to regain all of Ukraine. So progress one way or another in this conflict depends to some degree on how credible the new Russian military leaders are and how they can motivate existing troops while building a new force come spring.

What Is Russia Thinking??
Russia assumed from the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine that it would bring overwhelming force to bear on a much weaker military. The expectation was that the Ukrainian military would fragment and thus be unable to offer much resistance. Moscow thought Ukraine believed the same. The fundamental problem is that the Russian command structure, starting at the top with Vladimir Putin, didn’t banish their confidence. 

Tactical Nuclear Weapons
There has been endless speculation that Russia might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Given that Russian President Vladimir Putin has mentioned their use on several occasions, that concern is clearly justified. Given that mentioning something can either indicate intent or simply be a bluff, there is reason for scrutiny. Either way, a discussion of nuclear weapons is in order.