Hasta la vista baby, Crude Oil ?

I last wrote on the crude oil on late February last year (http://tunmarvinworld.blogspot.com/2009/02/will-crude-oil-bull-return.html) on the possibility for the return of the bull. I wrote "- "I think there is a great chance that it will hit usd70-80 again". Crude has since rallied from a low of USD32.40 to its recent high of USD 83.95. Since it had hit my target, I think it may be right time  to take a fresh look at the charts to try to educatedly guess what is its next possible direction.

Looking at the weekly chart, I see many items that strongly suggest forthcoming bearishness. First the MACD has failed to register higher peaks when prices have been registering new highs on the final week of October , 2008 and mid January this year. The Stochastic is even worse with its series of lower peaks. As at this week, the Stochastic has begun to hook down but it remains positive. But the MACD has already turned negative and heading down towards its zero signal line. Once it crosses down below there, it would be a solid bearish signal.

Prices have been stuck within the Bollinger Band which the falling and lowly (now at 11's) ADX is confirming this lack of directional trend. The conclusion as at this time will be: there is no strong selling signal yet but with the bearish divergence, you should get ready for a strong sell which may happen soon .

The daily chart is confirmed bearish as price is not below the lower Bollinger Band which is a sell, sell, sell. The MACD is negative and is heading down toward its own zero signal line. Once broken below, we could see more intense selling to emerge. The Stochastic is also bearish as it is already below its 20 signal line. I would keep an eye on this as the ADX is now flat which mean the trend is still NOT strong yet. So this is not a powerful trend , I would pay some attention to the oversold story. But if price is not able to recover back above the middle Bollinger Band which is effectively the 20 SMA, I would think this market may collapse soon.

Crude oil may be going back to USD54 initially. Or maybe even we will see it at USD20 ?