Tuesday, October 27, 2009

USD - Come The Mother Lode of All ?


As I have been writing last ( 6/9/2009) on a possible return of the USD bull, the USD yesterday staged a powerful rebound, closing above the long term resistance trend line for the first time for a long time. Its recent low also slightly overshot its Fibonacci 75% retracement level of its last major bull cycle. Thus satisfying the condition on this possible wave 2 count. These are some of the initial confirmations I have been waiting for.

The daily chart MACD has turned positive and pushing upward. I would like see it crosses up above its own zero signal line. The RSI has also turned up towards its 50 signal line. A cross up of above the 50's would be another one of those confirmation I am looking forward for. Of course both the indicators have already formed a bullish divergence which is compulsory for anyone to call for a major reversal in the market.

The ADX which is above both the D- and D+ has turned down which may be confirming that the prior bearish trend has ended. But since its current reading is 22 and is turning down, so beware that a new trend has not formed yet. We would need to see more powerful moves up in bring up this indicator which would of course confirming the new trend.

A closing of above 76.70 would be a more assuring confirmation that the bull is back. And if prices are to fall its recent low, this possible bull move is again void.

And if my wave count is correct, the next bull wave should be a wave 3 in a major bull cycle which any Elliot Wave students can tell you :- it would be the mother of all bull waves.

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