Sunday, September 21, 2014

FCPO - Market Overbought - 9/22/2014

The market continued to gain ground until last Friday. As I mentioned here the previous week, I would want to watch the Stochastic as it is going into the overbought zone. Last Friday Japanese Candlestick was a Falling Window. With the Stochastic already crossing down, I would raise my stop below the prior day low of 2105. I am also taking note that the D- has risen up and crossed above the 20's signal line. This is the first sign that the bear is fighting back.
Anew sell signal may come when if price goes below the top band with the Stochastic crossing below the 80's.

The weekly chart continues to improve for the bull. Price has now closed above the bottom band and the rising Stochastic looks like it would soon cross above the 30's level by the coming week. If that can materialize, then it would the first buy signal after 6 months of selling. The MACD stays negative but it has been trying to turn around. The DMI is also staying negative but the D- continues to fall, a sign that the sellers have been leaving. The D+ has been rising and now fast approaching the 20's signal line. This means the buyers have been getting more confident. The ADX has just turned flat which mean the prior trend has stopped, at least temporarily.
Summarily, the daily chart is getting overbought and may go into a consolidation or even a new sell mode. The weekly chart, though it is not confirmed yet, is getting increasing bullish. I would get more bullish inclined after the weekly chart gives me a confirmation. Otherwise I suspect the bear may be still lurking behind the shadow and may get to pound on the market next.

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