Friday, March 6, 2009

Genting - another from heroes to zeroes


Genting - When I first went in and "invest" in KLSE, a bank manager told me this:-"it is the blue chip of all blue chips". Over the years, I think many people in the market tend to share that sentiment. I certainly am no fan of fundamental analysis, but I do know their dividends are nothing to shout about. But if you are one of those believers that it is the bluest of all that you intended to BUY & HOLD and hope to pass it to your children, then I am very sorry that to show you the chart of Genting.

Assuming that you are one of those amazing people who really can buy low (i.e. assuming you know where is the low) and bought around mid 2001 at around 1.80. And you practice buy and hold because you believe the above mentioned reasons , by today you would see your investment fall from its high of 9.00 to the current 3.28.

Of course Genting is still paying their kind of dividend , but then instead of making something like 8.00-1.80= 6.20, now you ware holding to a 1.48. And that 1.48 may just disappear soon too.

And how much dividend would you had received over this period? Assuming that you bought 1,000 shares - are those accumulated dividneds more than 6.20x1,000= 6,200 profit?

And what if you had applied a simple trading system base on technical system (buy when prices cross above Bollinger Band top and sell when prices close below Bollinger Band bottom) - please note how such a simple trading sytem would had effectively kept you out of this stock since 2008 (except one at August which you would had got out at a small loss) . Til now there is no new buy signal.

Yesterday Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew commented that Temasek may had gone in and buy the US banks 'too early'. Yes sir, it is all about timing. Knowing when to buy is important , but knowing when to sell is even more important because it ultimately mean banking in your real profit into your account rather than to allow paper profit turning into zeroes.

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