"What Stock to Buy? Hey, Mom, Don’t Ask Me" Economist Answers.

   
OVER the last few weeks, as the stock market has reached new highs, my thoughts have turned to my 85-year-old mother.


“O.K. Mr. Smarty-Pants,” she often asks me, “what stock should I buy now?”

She first asked me this question when I was an undergraduate at Princeton, majoring in economics. She asked again when I was a graduate student at M.I.T., earning a Ph.D. in economics. And she has asked it regularly during the last three decades when I have been an economics professor at Harvard.

Unfortunately, she has never been happy with my answers, which are usually evasive. Nothing in the toolbox of economists makes us good stock pickers.

Yet we economists have written countless studies about the stock market. Here is a summary of what we know:

THE MARKET PROCESSES INFORMATION QUICKLY One prominent theory of the stock market — the efficient markets hypothesis — explains how answering my mother’s question would be a fool’s errand. If I knew anything good about a company, that news would be incorporated into the stock’s price before I had the chance to act on it. Unless you have extraordinary insight or inside information, you should presume that no stock is a better buy than any other.

This theory gained public attention in 1973 with the publication of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” by Burton G. Malkiel, the Princeton economist. He suggested that so-called expert money managers weren’t worth their cost and recommended that investors buy low-cost index funds. Most economists I know follow this advice.

PRICE MOVES ARE OFTEN INEXPLICABLE Even if changes in stock prices are unpredictable, as efficient markets theory suggests, we should be able to explain these changes after the fact. That is, we should be able to identify the news that causes stock prices to rise and fall. Sometimes we can, but often we can’t.

In 1981, Robert J. Shiller, a regular contributor to this column and an economics professor at Yale, published a paper in The American Economic Review called, “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” He argued that stock prices were too volatile. In particular, they fluctuated much more than a rational valuation of the underlying fundamentals would.

Mr. Shiller’s paper prompted a storm of controversy. My reading of the subsequent academic literature is that his conclusions, though not all his techniques, have survived the debate. Stock prices seem to have a life of their own.

Advocates of market rationality now say that stock prices move in response to changing risk premiums, though they can’t explain why risk premiums move as they do. Others suggest that the market moves in response to irrational waves of optimism and pessimism, what John Maynard Keynes called the “animal spirits” of investors. Either approach is really just an admission of economists’ ignorance about what moves the market.

HOLDING STOCKS IS A GOOD BET The large, often inexplicable movements in stock prices might deter someone from holding stocks in the first place. Many Americans, even some with significant financial assets, avoid stocks altogether. But doing so is a mistake, because the risk of holding stocks is amply rewarded.

In 1985, Rajnish Mehra and Edward C. Prescott, both now at Arizona State University, published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics called “The Equity Premium: A Puzzle.” They pointed out that over a long time span, stocks have earned, on average, about 6 percent more per year than safe assets like Treasury bills. This large premium, they said, is hard to explain with standard economic models. Sure, stocks are risky, so you can never be certain you’ll earn the premium, but they are not risky enough to justify such a large expected return.

Since the paper was published, economists have made some limited progress in explaining the equity premium. In any event, the large premium has convinced most of us that stocks should be part of everyone’s financial plan. I allocate 60 percent of my financial assets to equities.

Stocks may be an especially good deal today. According to a recent study by two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, given the low level of interest rates, the equity premium now is the highest it has been in 50 years.

DIVERSIFICATION IS ESSENTIAL Every time a company experiences a catastrophic decline — consider Enron or Lehman Brothers — reports emerge about employees who held most of their wealth in company stock. These stories leave economists slapping their heads. If there is one thing we know for sure, it is that sensible financial management requires diversification.

So, if you have more than 5 percent of your assets in any one company, call your broker and sell. Doing otherwise means exposing yourself to extra risk without extra reward.

SMART INVESTORS THINK GLOBALLY One widely documented failure of diversification is what economists call home bias. People tend to invest disproportionately in their home country.

Most economists take a more global perspective. The United States represents a bit under half of the world’s stock portfolio. Because Europe, Japan and the emerging markets don’t move in lock step with the United States, it makes sense to invest abroad as well.

Which brings me back to my mother’s question: If I could pick just one stock for someone to buy, what would it be? I would now suggest something like the Vanguard Total World Stock exchange-traded fund, which started trading in 2008. In one package, you can get low cost and maximal diversification. It may not be as exciting as trying to pick the next Apple or Google, but you’ll sleep better at night.

THE SUCKER RALLY That Makes All Of The Gurus  Look Like Fools

Ever since the low, experts from both the bearish and bullish camps have presented their arguments for why investors should sell.
Sure, there have been dips along the way. Ultimately, though, the trend has been up.
To be clear, none of the people we identify here are idiots, and we don't want to give that impression.
But this epic bull market run has certainly made a lot of people look and feel like idiots.

March 2009: John Mauldin say bulls will get their hopes crushed over the summer

“So, I know a lot of you have stayed in the market the whole time it has been falling and are now wondering what to do. If you have a ten-year time horizon you probably can buy here and do OK. But I wouldn't. I think this market is going to have more problems as we confront the real possibility that we will get some really poor earnings for the first and second quarters. The economy is simply weak, and that weakness is hitting more and more companies. From exporting companies to the big international firms, a global slowdown is hitting almost everyone. Even hospitals are being challenged. We could see a real bear market rally lure investors back in, just to crush their hopes this summer.”
—John Maudlin on March 14th, 2009
Dow Then: 7,223
Dow Today: 14,254

March 2009: Nouriel Roubini predicts new lows in the next 18 months

"During the last recession, the economy bottomed out in November 2001 and GDP growth was robust in 2002 but the U.S. stock markets kept on falling all the way through the first quarter of 2003. So not only were the stock markets not 'forward looking,' they actually lagged the economic recovery by 18 months--rather than lead it by six to nine months.
"A similar scenario could occur this time around. The real economy sort of exits the recession some time in 2010, but deflationary forces keep a lid on the pricing power of corporations and their profit margins, and growth is so weak and anemic, that U.S. equities may--as in 2002--move sideways for most of 2010. A number of false bull starts would occur as economic recovery signals remain mixed.
"Thus, most likely, we can brace ourselves for new lows on U.S. and global equities in the next 12 to 18 months."
—Nouriel Roubini on March 12, 2009
Dow: 7,170
Dow Today: 14,254

May 2009: Andy Kessler says "this sure smells to me like a sucker's rally"

"Is this the dawn of a new era? Are we off to the races again? I'm not so sure. Only a fool predicts the stock market, so here I go. This sure smells to me like a sucker's rally. That's because there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.
—Andy Kessler on May 12, 2009
Dow: 8,469
Dow Today: 14,254

June 2009: Michael Markowski says "the markets are in the later stages of a powerful bear market rally that is close to its peak"

"I believe that the markets are in the later stages of a powerful bear market rally that is close to its peak. I expect the market to trade in a narrow trading range until late this summer before it starts to head down again this fall."
—Michael Markowski, founder of Stock Diagnostics, on June 2, 2009
Dow: 8,740
Dow Today: 14,254

June 2009: Glenn Neely predicts the S&P will decline 50% in the next six months

"Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction. The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!"
—Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, on June 16, 2009
Dow: 8,504
Dow Today: 14,254

July 2009: Dave Rovelli says "If you were to jump in right now, you're crazy"

"If you were to jump in right now, you're crazy. On the same front, if you're 35, 40, 45 years old and if you do your research and you buy like a Wells Fargo or a Merrill and it's going to survive, it could be the opportunity of a lifetime. Take small little nibbles."
—Dave Rovelli, managing director of US equity trading at Canaccord Adams, on July 17, 2009
Dow: 8,743
Dow Today: 14,254

August 2009: Bob Janjuah says "The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone'"

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."
—Bob Janjuah on Aug. 12, 2009
Dow: 9,361
Dow Today: 14,254

August 2009: Doug Kass says markets are overshooting to the upside

"I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year...
A double-dip outcome in 2010 represents my baseline expectation. When the stimulus provided by the public sector is finally abandoned, it seems unlikely to be replaced by meaningful strength or participation by any specific component of the private sector, and the burgeoning deficit (described above) will ultimately require a reversal of policy, leading to higher interest rates, rising marginal tax rates and a lower U.S. dollar. My forecast assumes that the market's focus will shortly shift from the productivity gains that have been yielding better-than-expected bottom-line results toward these chronic and secular worries."
—Doug Kass, on August 26th, 2009
Dow: 9,543
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2009: Robert Prechter says "stocks peaked in September"

"Stocks are very overvalued. Stocks peaked in September and are back in a bear market."
The S&P 500 will probably fall “substantially below” 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9, he said. His projection implies a drop of more than 34 percent from last week’s close of 1025.21. It rose to 1031.77 at 10:05 a.m. in New York.
—Robert Prechter on Oct. 1, 2009
Dow: 9,509
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2009: Joseph Stiglitz says the markets have been irrationally exuberant

“There’s a lot of risk going ahead of some big bumps. There’s a very big risk that markets have been irrationally exuberant."
—Joseph Stiglitz on Oct 6, 2009
Dow: 9,731
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2009: Jeremy Grantham says "This is the last hurrah"

"A large rally is far more likely to prove a last hurrah... a codicil on the great bullishness we have had since the early 90s or, even in some respects, since the early 80s...
"“he U.S. market will drop below fair value, which is a 22% decline (from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19).”
—Jeremy Grantham around Oct. 19, 2009
Dow: 9,972
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2009: Gary Shilling predicts a new low on the S&P

"I think what's happened is still a bear market rally. And as a result, whether we hit new lows or not remains to be seen. I think we very well could go back and test that 666 on the S&P, maybe go a bit lower than that. And this decline may very well spill into next year."
—Gary Shilling on Oct. 23, 2009
Dow: 9,972
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2009: Bill Gross says the rally is at its pinnacle

"Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4%–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets—while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers—is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle."
—Bill Gross on Oct. 27, 2009
Dow: 9,762
Dow Today: 14,254

December 2009: Albert Edwards says "It is time to sell"

"For Japanese investors, it took some time to learn the new metrics of investing. Today, investors have no such excuse... The leading indicators have begun to turn down in the US and so risk assets are therefore dangerous. Almost no-one will be willing to predict renewed global recession and no-one will predict new lows in equities. And with the market so bullish a cyclical failure will come as a crushing blow to sentiment. It is time for caution. It is time to sell."
—Albert Edwards around Dec. 9, 2009
Dow: 10,337
Dow Today: 14,254

December 2009: Mohamed El Erian says stocks will tank within one month

"We're on a sugar high. It feels good for a while but it unsustainable."
Claims: Stocks will drop 10 percent in the space of three or four weeks, bringing the Standard & Poor's 500 index below 1,000.

—Mohamed El Erian on Dec. 28, 2009
Dow: 10,547
Dow Today: 14,254

January 2010: Richard Russell says "The fun's over"

"Despite it all, I continue to believe that since March we have been in a bear market correction, and not a new bull market. For this reason, I take the current rotten market action very seriously. If I’m correct, it this is the beginning or a top-out in a bear market rally, then I can tell you that the “fun’s over,” and the really bad times lie ahead." 
—Richard Russell on Jan. 22, 2010

Dow: 10,610
Dow Today: 14,254

May 2010: Keith McCullough says "Sell all U.S. stocks now"

"Sell all U.S. stocks now. We're heading to 1018...When markets get this unstable, it doesn't take much to destabilize market."
—Keith McCullough, Hedgeye CEO, on May 28, 2010
Dow: 10,136
Dow Today: 14,254

June 2010: George Soros says the market is overextended

"We have just entered Act II...The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real and the crisis is far from over...1930's style budget deficits are essential as counter-cyclical policies, yet many governments are now moving to reduce their budget deficits under pressure from financial markets. This is liable to push the global economy into a double-dip."
-- George Soros around June 7, 2010
Dow: 9,932
Dow Today: 14,254

July 2010: Bill Fleckenstein says Bulls are getting too optimistic

"There is a reasonable probability of a decent rally getting under way...However, it will be just that: a rally. If things play out along those lines, it may very well be time to start thinking seriously about putting on some short positions, preparing for a move back down."
—Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, on July 9, 2010
Dow: 10,198
Dow Today: 14,254

September 2010: David Rosenberg says the market is overbought and all signals are negative

"Maybe instead of going and retesting the April highs, which now almost seems like a given to the pundits we read over the weekend, maybe what we have on our hands is a move to the right shoulder in what looks to be a classic heads-and- shoulders pattern emerging. Hey, in a market governed largely by technicals and sentiment, these things matter. And, as for sentiment, most of these indicators have very quickly moved to “contrary negative” bullish readings. Not only that, but the market has become seriously overbought with almost three in four stocks now trading above their 50-day moving averages compared with one in four earlier this month."
—David Rosenberg, on Sept. 27, 2010
Dow: 10,860
Dow Today: 14,254

July 2010: Robert Prechter says traders should short the S&P 500

"The selling pressure will abate at times, but by the end of 2010, stock prices should be much lower...Experienced traders should be short the S&P 500 index... The current bear market will be the biggest in nearly 300 years."
—Robert Prechter on July 15, 2010
Dow: 10,359
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2010: John Hussman says the market is "overvalued, overbought, overbullish"

"As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was characterized by rich valuations, elevated (but not extreme) bullish sentiment, generally positive but overbought price trends, and continued negative economic pressures. Overall, our measures suggest an overvalued, overbought, overbullish condition, but with shorter term factors struggling between emerging economic weakness and overbought conditions on the negative side, and speculative trend following on the positive side. For our part, the current set of conditions is associated with an unfavorable return/risk profile, so the Strategic Growth Fund and the Strategic International Equity Fund remain well hedged."
—John Hussman on Oct. 11, 2010
Dow: 11,011
Dow Today: 14,254

January 2011: Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley lowers his S&P 500 price target dramatically

Adam Parker

1,167, that's where MS's Adam Parker sees the S&P ending in 2012. "Our more cautious view on earnings stems from three key factors. 1) We see global GDP decelerating over the next few months in nearly every major geography. 2) Recent company results have been weak...This likely portends weak January results or April guidance. 3) The dollar has materially strengthened against the euro over the last few months and our analysis shows this is highly correlated to earnings downside, with select staples, technology, and materials likely impacted. Furthermore, inventory levels remain crucial, as several industries now have inventory-to-sales ratios well above five-year averages," Parker said when setting his 2012 target.
Dow Then: 12,221
Dow Today: 14,254

August 2011: John Mauldin commits to his recession call, saying stocks could fall 40 percent over the next 12 months

"Last week I finally stopped being wishy-washy (with my 50-50% chance of a recession call) and said the U.S. would be in recession within 12 months. And suggested that you consider moving to the sidelines your longer-term equity investments, except your conviction stocks. (I have some of those in the biotech space and simply intend to buy more if the prices go down. But remember, I am looking out ten years and expect an eventual bubble, so I don’t care if I am early for some of my high-risk money.) Stocks typically go down about 40% or more in a recession."
Dow Then: 11,284
Dow Today: 14,254

September 2011: Albert Edwards remains completely bearish, predicts a 65 percent selloff

Albert Edwards

"We still hear a lot of nonsense about equity valuations and I certainly don't like feeling left out. Our belief that US equities are still overvalued is based on Tobin's Q, Shiller, Graham & Dodd's and cyclically adjusted PE measures. Investors ignore these at their peril. Those who take reassurance that the current 12m forward S&P PE of 101⁄2x is cheap should take a look at the chart below. The forward PE may be back down at the same level as the low of the last bear market, but 1) we are on peak earnings, and 2) the Ice Age secular trend of lower PE lows in this secular valuation bear market will mean that we move to single-digit PEs in this, the third post-bubble recession. Those who do not believe this can happen are still choosing to ignore the reality that has unfolded before their eyes since 2000. In phase 3 of the Ice Age we would apply a 7-8x forward multiple to recession-depressed forward earnings of say $70-75/sh. That gets us pretty close our 400 S&P target. Unbelievable and ridiculous? They said that about our 11⁄2% US T-Note forecast this time last year!"
Dow Then: 11,152
Dow Today: 14,254

September 2011: Mary Ann Bartels says the S&P 500 will drop below 1000

"Unfortunately, nothing in our work suggests that the market is improving," Bartels said in September. "More importantly, we are more concerned now that the downside risk could be more than we originally forecast. Measured moves suggest 985-910 on the S&P 500 is a potential range where a market bottom may finally be found." But in December she reiterated her bearish view, doubling down on a downturn in 2012. "This pattern is becoming eerily similar to 2008 into 2009. A base building process has been underway since August but we have maintained the belief that the lows still need to be tested and undercuts to 985- 935 are possible (50% probability) as part of this process. We expect a new cyclical bull market to emerge near 2Q12. Time and patience are needed.
Dow Then: 10,990
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2011: John Hussman calls a recession and says the European mess has only gotten started

"The simple fact is that the measures that we use to identify recession risk tend to operate with a lead of a few months. Those few months are often critical, in the sense that the markets can often suffer deep and abrupt losses before coincident and lagging evidence demonstrates actual economic weakness. As a result, there is sometimes a "denial" phase between the point where the leading evidence locks onto a recession track, and the point where the coincident evidence confirms it. We saw exactly that sort of pattern prior to the last recession. While the recession evidence was in by November 2007 (see Expecting A Recession ), the economy enjoyed two additional months of payroll job growth, and new claims for unemployment trended higher in a choppy and indecisive way until well into 2008. Even after Bear Stearns failed in March 2008, the market briefly staged a rally that put it within about 10% of its bull market high."
Dow Then: 11,643
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2011: Nomura's Bob Janjuah says a fall to 700 on the S&P 500 is completely possible

"My last report (Bob's World: It's only just begun) was published on 23 August. A month on I have little to add as markets and data are evolving almost exactly as expected. Most commentators now seem to accept that what is happening is not an overreaction, rather the markets are at last on the way to fully pricing in the sad state of the global economy and global markets. It may sound repetitive, but I remain firmly convinced that we are in a secular bear market where stage 1 was the late 2007 to early 2009 sell-off, stage 2 was the countertrend rally from early 2009 to April 2011, and stage 3 is the current phase, where I expect the sell-off to last at least until late 2012 ... It is for these reasons that my secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible."
Dow Then: 10,912
Dow Today: 14,254

December 2011: Richard Russell says to 'GET OUT OF STOCKS'

"I am warning all my subscribers again that we are back in the grip of a vicious and ruthless bear.  The bear has been held back for almost two years, due to the so-called quantitative easing of an anxious and ignorant Fed.  There's no bear angrier than a frustrated bear.  As a result, I believe we're going to see a brutal stock market that will shock the Fed and the bulls and the public -- and all who insist on remaining in this bear market. I think we'll see selling of gold to cover losses (particular losses by the short sellers), but ultimately gold will be the last man standing.  But most important -- GET OUT OF STOCKS."
Dow Then: 11,825
Dow Today: 14,254

December 2011: UBS's Chief Strategist Jonathan Golub says he would not be an equity buyer

Jonathan Golub

"I am warning all my subscribers again that we are back in the grip of a vicious and ruthless bear.  The bear has been held back for almost two years, due to the so-called quantitative easing of an anxious and ignorant Fed.  There's no bear angrier than a frustrated bear.  As a result, I believe we're going to see a brutal stock market that will shock the Fed and the bulls and the public -- and all who insist on remaining in this bear market. I think we'll see selling of gold to cover losses (particular losses by the short sellers), but ultimately gold will be the last man standing.  But most important -- GET OUT OF STOCKS."
Dow Then: 11,825
Dow Today: 14,254

December 2011: Walter Zimmerman says the S&P 500 will fall to 579.57

The Wall Street Journal's Tomi Kilgore reports that United ICAP's Walter Zimmerman forecasts the S&P 500 will hit 579.57, mainly on issues in Europe. “If the history of debt tells us anything it is that one cannot solve a debt crisis by lending more money to the bankrupt and the insolvent,” Zimmerman says.
Dow Then: 12,293
Dow Today: 14,254

December 2011: Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin sees 1100 to 1250 range-bound S&P 500 for 2012

"Our 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month forecasts are 1150, 1200, and 1250. We use six valuation approaches including DDM, uncertainty-based P/E multiple, cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple, price/book and ROE relationship ... We estimate the S&P 500 could fall by 25% to 900 in an adverse scenario in which the Euro collapses."
Dow Then: 12,046
Dow Today: 14,254

August 2012: Marc Faber warns of S&P 500 bear market after 2012 presidential elections

"I think that we may still rally somewhat into August – mid-August, end of August – and then probably we'll have a tougher second half. In other words, September, October, and November could be somewhat tougher months...The high was this year on April 4 at 1422. I think it's possible, based on the few stocks that are strong and the rebound candidates, that we will exceed that high – maybe move to 1450 or even 1500...I think these lows could be exceeded and I think it may be October or November – or after the U.S. election – we could essentially have a decline of around 20 percent in the market."
—Marc Faber on August 6, 2012
Dow: 13,117
Dow Today: 14,254

September 2012: Bob Janjuah warns the S&P 500 will fall to 800

Bloomberg Television

"From here, I would currently be flat or neutrally positioned. On a multi-month timeframe – and before the next major multi-quarter bear market phase starts and which I still expect to result in an 800 S&P - the upside in global equities is in my view pretty modest, around 10 %, based on underlying growth, debt and policymaker credibility concerns. However, until and unless the S&P index demonstrates a weekly close below 1450, I believe it is premature to go aggressively short risk – tactically at least – at this precise moment. That opportunity is unlikely to be more than a few months away, and could even present itself in the next fortnight or so. Data, news flow, price action/volumes/market leadership and abrupt changes in market sentiment and belief in policy/policymakers will be the drivers."
—Bob Janjuah on September 24, 2012
Dow: 13,558
Dow Today: 14,254

October 2012: David Tice Warns That The Market Is Like 2008 Right Before The Crash

"It has been hard to be a bear...People though I was crazy when I was bearish back in '97, '98', '99.  I saw that a bubble was developing and we ended up crashing '00 to '02...I tend to be very, very early...This really seems like it seemed in early '08.  Remember, in September '08 after Lehman went down, it wasn't until October and November until the market started crashing. In other words, I believe Spain, Europe, China...the market will pick up on this."
—David Tice on October 10, 2012
Dow: 13,344
Dow Today: 14,254

Why Economists / Fundamental Analyst"Experts" Are Idiots

Its absurd that universities still do not formally teach the study of price behavior (technical analysis) and it seems academic finance is way out of touch with real market participants and real risk management.
The study of price behavior is as basic to markets as the study of human behavior is to psychology. It is directly observable. There is price, volume and time. Nothing is hidden or subject to conjecture. There is no implying.
There are really only 3 behaviors – buy, sell and hold and charts are, concretely, the visual depiction of the collective market exhibiting those behaviors.
Patterns repeat themselves. They do not do so perfectly and predictive validity is nowhere near 100% but that’s not the point.
The point is that there are behavioral tendencies which reveal themselves upon disciplined scrutiny and that there already exists a rich written history and archive of those tendencies.
Real market participants gravitate towards technical analysis for good reasons. It provides them an edge.
As mentioned above, behavioral patterns repeat themselves again and again across assets and time frames. These are the tendencies and they provide essential tactical information.
The disciplined employment of price study facilitates risk management. If you are long and wrong, how do you know? How do you plan ahead so that losses do not get away from you?
When a rational participant enters an investment or a trade, he must have risk defined. If he does not, he is placing risk management responsibilities on a future self that might be affected by the loss he is experiencing in the moment and we know that decision making while experiencing a loss is wrought with problems. Defining risk is a multi step process no doubt but an integral part of it must be an informed examination of price.
Further, and in reality, it is not only technically driven investors who incorporate price behavior. Real world fundamentally focused investors use price studies to find entry and exit points. They are already integrating technical analysis into their work.
Academic finance ought to be accelerating price behavior research and challenging students with what we understand, what we don’t understand, the questions that need to be answered and challenges for future study.
Instead, it goes ignored due to biases inherent in academia. Fischer Black summed it up like this:
    In the end, a theory is accepted not because it is confirmed by conventional empirical tests, but because researchers persuade one another that the theory is correct or relevant.
Its a bias on the part of finance academia against technical analysis from a community that is still trying to prop up EMH and has moved so far  from the reality of markets they fail to acknowledge critical tools their students will be using in the future.
The good thing is that it is becoming easier for those learning asset management to find educational material in books and on the internet and so universities are only risking moving themselves further from being relevant much less essential.
This will need to change fast so that future managers will grasp the essentials of technical analysis before heading into a real world filled with real profit and real loss.
If you want to support technical analysis being added to curricula, please connect with the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation. It is their stated goal to make this happen.

A Real " Expert" 

Former Soros Trader Has Made A Career Out Of Being Wrong For The Last 12 Years

Breathtaking :

Takeshi Fujimaki has been wrong for a decade and counting. Since the former star JPMorgan trader was fired by  George Soros in 2000 for shorting Japanese government bonds, he has earned a living advising pensioners to cut their yen holdings, in anticipation of an imminent fiscal collapse.

This is an ironic thing.
The great rally in the yen/Japanese Government Bonds has been called the widowmaker precisely because folks like Fujimaki have been wrong for so long.
But widowmaker implies people becoming widows AKA: their husbands dying. In this case, the advice has been horrible, but he keeps on trucking.

Hugh Hendry's Real World vs Ivory Towers'  Height Of Absurdity

Hugh Hendry, founder of hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, is known for being brainy and quick witted on camera.

Unfortunately for us, he's just not on camera enough.

That's why the wonderful people at The Trader compiled this wonderful 4 minute video of his greatest hits, or K.Os... however you want to describe them.

Our favorite line? Economist Jeffery Sachs says everything will be fine with Greece (it's about 10 weeks into the crisis). Hendry responds condescendingly — "Was Jeffrey skiing last month because I was working...i can tell you about the real world." Jeffrey Sachs near becoming the head of the World Bank in April this year. Whew! He really sound like this guy:-

Despite What Is Said, The World Just LOVE America

1) They just keep on lending $$$$$$$$ to American government (that include the great "lecturer"- China) despite pitiful returns.

2) The Black Swan guru's " Every single human being should have that trade.", now  die a few more times over under a horrible death under a 20 wheeled truck.

Fundamentals

Note and Bond prices continue to rise due to strong foreign demand, as investors head for higher ground. While US investors point to the record low yields in the 10-Year Note, foreign investors may benefit from the exchange rate. This is especially true in the Eurozone, where sovereign debt from some member states is beginning to look like high yield bonds. The departure of Greece from the Euro sets a precedent and others could follow. There has been some safe haven buying from US investors who are uncertain in the near-term future of the stock and commodity markets and prefer some sort of yield, however small, to simply sitting in cash.

Technical Notes

Turning to the chart, we see that the September 10-Year Note pushed to new highs yesterday. Prices quickly fell back into the prior trading range in the 132-134 range in early trading today. It is interesting to note that the RSI indicator has been showing bearish divergence from prices over the past two months. This can be seen as a negative for prices in the future, however, the divergence can last months and is difficult to time on its own. Traders may want to keep an eye on the chart for a reversal pattern.

Taleb's own Black Swan

Fundamental "experts" absolutely love him for inventing the "Black Swan" theory to "explain" and protect their backside everytime when they fail to see the market turns. As far as we TA Party is concerned:- we can see the market turns, most of the time. Here we can clearly see a swan therein -

Taleb rose to fame not only by coining the term ‘Black Swan’ in his aforenamed book, but his fund Universa returned 100% during the 2008 stock market crash using black swan trading methodologies when the overall market was down 20-30%. The way the fund works is most of the capital is designated to risk free assets like treasuries and only a small portion is assigned to out-of-money puts. If the market falls a lot (like what happened in 2008) his fund will make a lot of money exercising these options. Otherwise, he loses only a small amount of money when the options expire worthless.  His fund is able to tolerate small, repeated losses for a huge potential payday when a black swan materializes whereas traditional funds would be destroyed by the black swan. It seems like a great idea; many small losses and a few huge gains, but looking deeper Universa’s days may be numbered because there are black swans that not even Taleb has anticipated.

In 1999 Taleb founded Empirica Capital "a tail hedging firm ... carrying an insurance-style strategy (now called "Black Swan Protection") aiming to protect investors from large adverse events". Tail hedging is essentially the same as buying an out-of-money put. Taleb closed Empirica in 2004 to focus on writing, and in 2007 he and a partner founded Universa to execute similar 'tail hedging' stategies. Between 1999 and 2007 these funds were able withstand daily small losses by collecting interest on the risk-free portion of the fund. Between 2003 and 2008 the stock market was remarkably stable which would have been bad for his puts, but short term interest rates were very high at around 4-5%. Nowadays, the markets are stable but short term interest rates are at zero as shown by the chart below with no hint whatsoever of them going up.

3-MO
0.02
0.005
+0%
2-YR
0.366
0.02
+0%
5-YR
1.472
0.012
+0%
10-YR
2.93
0.01
+0%
30-YR
4.181
0.012
+0%

Huge BRIC surpluses and quantitative easing programs are depressing rates, whereas just a few years ago interest rates would be on the way up at this stage of the recovery.  Permanently low interest rates not only help stabilize the stock market keeping ‘black swan’ events brief in duration and rare, but make it impossible to recover the small losses, and eventually these losses will add up to a substantial amount of money if a black swan doesn’t happen.

Perhaps the lack of economic black swans and permanently low yields could technically be a black swan from the perspective of Universa.

According to the Malcom Gladwell book his fund buys far out of the money puts and calls and he loses money 99.999 percent of the time . The black swan events are supposed to compensate for the losers by proving a huge return.

However, he's losing money everyday and without black swans or a means to replenish his fund he will fail.