Taleb's own Black Swan

Fundamental "experts" absolutely love him for inventing the "Black Swan" theory to "explain" and protect their backside everytime when they fail to see the market turns. As far as we TA Party is concerned:- we can see the market turns, most of the time. Here we can clearly see a swan therein -

Taleb rose to fame not only by coining the term ‘Black Swan’ in his aforenamed book, but his fund Universa returned 100% during the 2008 stock market crash using black swan trading methodologies when the overall market was down 20-30%. The way the fund works is most of the capital is designated to risk free assets like treasuries and only a small portion is assigned to out-of-money puts. If the market falls a lot (like what happened in 2008) his fund will make a lot of money exercising these options. Otherwise, he loses only a small amount of money when the options expire worthless.  His fund is able to tolerate small, repeated losses for a huge potential payday when a black swan materializes whereas traditional funds would be destroyed by the black swan. It seems like a great idea; many small losses and a few huge gains, but looking deeper Universa’s days may be numbered because there are black swans that not even Taleb has anticipated.

In 1999 Taleb founded Empirica Capital "a tail hedging firm ... carrying an insurance-style strategy (now called "Black Swan Protection") aiming to protect investors from large adverse events". Tail hedging is essentially the same as buying an out-of-money put. Taleb closed Empirica in 2004 to focus on writing, and in 2007 he and a partner founded Universa to execute similar 'tail hedging' stategies. Between 1999 and 2007 these funds were able withstand daily small losses by collecting interest on the risk-free portion of the fund. Between 2003 and 2008 the stock market was remarkably stable which would have been bad for his puts, but short term interest rates were very high at around 4-5%. Nowadays, the markets are stable but short term interest rates are at zero as shown by the chart below with no hint whatsoever of them going up.

3-MO
0.02
0.005
+0%
2-YR
0.366
0.02
+0%
5-YR
1.472
0.012
+0%
10-YR
2.93
0.01
+0%
30-YR
4.181
0.012
+0%

Huge BRIC surpluses and quantitative easing programs are depressing rates, whereas just a few years ago interest rates would be on the way up at this stage of the recovery.  Permanently low interest rates not only help stabilize the stock market keeping ‘black swan’ events brief in duration and rare, but make it impossible to recover the small losses, and eventually these losses will add up to a substantial amount of money if a black swan doesn’t happen.

Perhaps the lack of economic black swans and permanently low yields could technically be a black swan from the perspective of Universa.

According to the Malcom Gladwell book his fund buys far out of the money puts and calls and he loses money 99.999 percent of the time . The black swan events are supposed to compensate for the losers by proving a huge return.

However, he's losing money everyday and without black swans or a means to replenish his fund he will fail.