Despite the global storm of uncertainty surrounding
the world economy precipitated by the Ukraine war, U.S.-China tensions,
the side-effects of COVID-19, rising inflation and significantly higher
interest rates, global greenfield investment into the U.S. reached a
cumulative $5 trillion in 2021. Actual annual net FDI flows into the
U.S. were $389 billion in 2021, up by more than 400% from $95 billion in
2020.
While Europe continues to be the No. 1 source of cumulative
investment into the U.S. at $2.8 trillion as of 2021, investments from
companies in the Asia Pacific grew to more than $1 trillion. Asian FDI
is forecast to grow at a rate of 7% per annum overall. Japan with its
historic trade and investment ties to the U.S. is the No. 1 Asian and
global investor with a cumulative total of $721 billion. Also in the top
20 were Australia at No. 9 with $102 billion, South Korea at No. 12
with $72 billion, China at No. 15 with $54 billion, and Singapore at No.
16 with $54 billion, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA).
U.S. political trends and legitimate concerns about government-linked
investments from China have stoked anti-China investment sentiment.
Many U.S. state investment promotion agencies (IPAs) are re-thinking
their approach to attracting investment from Asia. Some of them are
stopping their proactive China investment attraction efforts and
redirecting their budgets to other Asian FDI source countries. Other
states are taking a long-term view of staying in China focusing on
export promotion while using these activities as a base for reactive
investment attraction.
Historic Ties Draw Investment
In times of economic and political turmoil and uncertainty,
investment tends to stay at home or flow between historic economic
partners. This is clearly the case in developed Asia, where there is now
a strong trend to prioritize outward FDI toward North America.
The U.S.’s launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for
prosperity in May 2022 is strengthening cross-border trade and
investment between the U.S. and the other 13 participants in the
framework: the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the
Republic of Korea, India, Fiji, and seven ASEAN countries (Brunei,
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam).
Investment into the U.S. from long-time allies and the developed
economies in the Asia Pacific — Japan, Korea, and Taiwan — grew by 67%,
74% and 115%, respectively, from 2020 to 2021. Investments from
Australia and New Zealand increased by 39% and 632%, respectively,
although from a low base in the case of New Zealand. Recent investments
from Australia include a $400 million investment by James Hardie
Industries, a global building materials company expanding in Prattville,
Alabama, and adding 200 jobs. Another notable investment includes
Australia-based digital diagnostics company Ellume establishing its
first U.S. manufacturing operation in Frederick County, Maryland,
investing $230 million and creating 1,500 new jobs.


Japanese giant Honda and Korea-based LG Energy
Solution in February broke ground for their joint venture EV battery
plant in Fayette County near Jeffersonville, Ohio, which will create
2,200 jobs and attract an initial $3.5 billion investment.
Two emerging Asian global investment sources include India and ASEAN.
Both geographic regions are increasingly important to the U.S. as
strategic trade and investment partners. There is a major focus by large
Indian companies on going global. While COVID-19 had a huge impact on
Indian FDI outflows into the U.S., which dropped from more than $4
billion in 2019 to $1.68 in 2020, this rebounded in 2021 to $2.9 billion
and is forecast to continue to grow.
In a 2020 survey by the Confederation of Indian Industries, 83% of
the 155 companies interviewed had plans to invest in the U.S. over the
next five years. U.S. state IPAs are responding and taking a serious
look at India as an investment source, not only for traditional sectors
like IT/ITE services and pharmaceuticals, but for the growing number of
sophisticated Indian conglomerates across a variety of industrial
sectors. To date this investment has been concentrated in three states:
- Texas: $9.5 billion, 17,578 jobs
- New York: $2.4 billion, 6175 jobs
- New Jersey: $2.4 billion, 8,057 jobs.
Technology and Agri-Foods Are Hot
Trends that started after the launch of U.S. import tariffs on
Chinese goods and COVID supply chain interruptions include nearshoring
of advanced manufacturing operations as well as agri-food manufacturing
investments. A wave of advanced technology investment is gaining
momentum as U.S. federal and state government investment attraction
policies are spurring investment. The CHIPS Act and the Inflation
Reduction Act have increased interest from Asian companies, spurring
significant investments in EV battery materials, semiconductors, EV
vehicle production and others.
Annual ASEAN FDI into the U.S. stood at $5.7 billion in 2020 and $5.6
billion in 2021 according to the BEA. Large ASEAN companies are
struggling to achieve acceptable returns in their home countries and
ASEAN neighbor countries and are now targeting investments in the major
markets of North America and Europe.
Interest in the U.S. is increasing from companies across the
agri-food supply chain. Of the 14 ASEAN companies identified by the
Boston Consulting Group as Global Challengers (companies with more than
$1 billion in revenues, high revenue growth, above-average EBIT, greater
than 1,000 employees and greater than 10% international sales and a
growing global presence), seven of them are in the agri-foods segment.
Three of these are from Thailand, two from Indonesia and two from the
Philippines.
These are just the type of investment targets that any state
investment promotion officer would salivate over. Charoen Pokphand Foods
PCL (CPF), a 102-year-old diversified conglomerate headquartered in
Thailand, was the first foreign investor in China when it opened in 1978
and now operates in 21 countries. In 2016, CPF bought Minneapolis-based
Belisio Foods for $1.1 B. This was CPF’s first U.S. investment. While
mergers and acquisitions of companies are not sought after by many IPAs,
this initial acquisition has generated subsequent greenfield
investment. CPF recently announced a $40 million plan to expand one of
its manufacturing facilities in Jackson, Ohio, that will lead to the
creation of 177 jobs.
Each of the major economies of ASEAN have at least five leading
companies in each primary industrial sector. A good example is
Indofoods, a leading Indonesian agri-foods conglomerate that has $7.3
billion in revenue and last year grew by 24% (2020-2021). It has the
financial wherewithal and global experience to consider investment in
the U.S. and Europe after having successfully invested in several
emerging African economies.
Opportunities for attracting FDI from Asia are large and varied.
Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies are expected to continue to be
the largest sources for Asian U.S. investment for the foreseeable
future, but the competition to attract this investment is intense. India
and ASEAN are emerging sources of FDI. While the number of companies
and total investment are smaller, the companies are excellent targets
and are aggressively looking to the U.S. as a priority investment
destination.
Attracting investment from China is being seen as politically
fraught. But it should not be dismissed entirely. Despite the
difficulties of the past two years, 2020 and 2021 resulted in $6.3
billion and $6.5 billion (Statistical Bulletin of China’s Foreign Direct
Investment) and there are many mid-size private Chinese companies
without government ties that are trying to diversify their manufacturing
footprints outside of China for the very same reasons as non-Chinese
companies.