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Sunday, September 13, 2026
克宫核心对是战是和分两派 普丁担心国内崩溃和动荡
乌克兰国防部国防情报局代表斯基比茨基（Vadym Skibitskyi）稍早透露，克里姆林宫内部在对乌克兰战争问题上存在两派分歧，而普京总统本人也对其核心精英感到担忧。
乌克兰独立媒体RBC稍早报导，斯基比茨基在“雅尔塔欧洲战略”（YES）年度会议上指出，乌克兰的情报分析是基于截获的俄罗斯官方文件。目前，普京的核心圈中至少可以明确区分出两个截然不同的派系：
第一派支持继续对乌克兰发动战争；
第二派则寻求透过谈判停止敌对行动。
斯基比茨基指出：“在潜在的谈判过程中，很明显，该政权确实担心国内崩溃和动荡。”
此外，追踪俄罗斯大选筹备期间国内政治动态的数据显示，亲政府政党的支持率显著下降，尤其是“统一俄罗斯党”（Yedinaya Rossiya）。
斯基比茨基说：“这对普京政权来说是一个明确的讯号。”
据斯基比茨基称，普京也对寡头的影响力感到担忧，他还记得前俄罗斯首富霍多尔科夫斯基（Mikhail Khodorkovsky）对他造成的威胁。
俄罗斯当局采取的具体措施反映了这种担忧：透过新的动员法、透过更严格的安全法令扩大安全部门的权力；媒体通报俄罗斯可能会对公司和企业进行重新私有化。
在被问及西方是否可以“收买”那些与总统意见相左的寡头时，斯基比茨基补充道：“我认为，对于我们的国际伙伴来说，当务之急是弄清楚俄罗斯精英阶层中谁真心希望停止战争，谁又希望战争继续下去。”
今年5月，俄罗斯媒体引述欧洲秘密情报文件报导，普京担心俄罗斯发生政变，并认为自己也可能遭到无人机暗杀。
同时，英国《卫报》报导指出，普京核心圈对这场灾难性的战争及其对俄罗斯经济的影响越来越感到沮丧。
Saturday, September 12, 2026
川习会前 美军F-35B突然进驻日本
美国海军陆战队向日本部署了又一个F-35B第五代战斗机中队，加强了美军在西太平洋最具战略意义的空中力量，进一步威慑中共。
9月8日，美军太平洋司令部发布新闻稿说，9月5日，美国海军陆战队根据“部队部署计划”（UDP），将驻扎在南卡罗来纳州博福特海军陆战队航空站（MCAS Beaufort）的F-35B“闪电II”战斗机中队，即第533海军陆战队战斗攻击中队（VMFA-533，绰号“鹰”队），部署至日本岩国海军陆战队航空站。
新闻稿写道，VMFA-533中队将编入第1海军陆战队航空联队下属的第12海军陆战队航空大队，在印太地区执行航空作战任务，并保持战备状态。
F-35B战斗机中队将接替老旧的F-18C/D“大黄蜂”战斗机中队；这是该军种定期轮换驻美航空部队至太平洋地区计划的一部分。此次部署反映美军日益依赖F-35B来执行日本周边作战任务，以对抗中共军事扩张。
岩国海军陆战队航空站（Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni，简称岩国基地）是美国海军陆战队在印太地区部署F-35B隐形战机的主要前沿作战基地，若与中共发生冲突，该地区固定基地将极易遭受远程导弹攻击。因此，预计海军陆战队将利用该机型的短距起飞/垂直降落（STOVL）能力，将其分散部署在规模较小且行踪更难预测的作战地点。
F-35B在日本的部署凸显了生存能力与常规作战性能之间不断变化的平衡关系。作为一款传感器平台和隐身平台，该机型价值极高。F-35B战机拥有先进的雷达、电子战及数据融合能力，使其作用远不止于投送武器。
岩国海军陆战队航空站拥有一条由美军、日本海上自卫队和民用飞机共用的跑道。该基地也是美国海军第5舰载机联队（Carrier Air Wing 5）的驻地；该联队是“乔治·华盛顿”号航空母舰（USS George Washington）的航空作战力量，而该航母母港位于东京以南的横须贺海军基地，目前正部署在中东地区。
太平洋司令部表示，“部队部署计划”通过在印太地区进行持续且重叠的部署，使驻扎在美国本土的部队获得在该地区行动的经验。“鹰”队将增强第1海军陆战队航空联队的能力，提供具备战备状态、按任务编组的航空力量，使其能够在海军舰艇及远征作战环境中执行任务。此举提升了作战准备水平，促进了地区稳定，并彰显美国对《美日共同合作与安全条约》的持久承诺。
不过，F-35B是目前全球量产战斗机中成本最高昂的机型，单机造价接近1.4亿美元，比应用更广泛的F-35A高出50%以上。
Anthropic控中国AI巨头“蒸馏”Claude
据《CNBC》报导，美国人工智能公司 Anthropic发布的威胁情报报告指出，公司近期侦测并阻止多起来自中国的人工智能实验室的大规模未授权行为，涉及阿里巴巴（Alibaba）、月之暗面（Moonshot AI）及 DeepSeek等业者。
Anthropic指控，相关公司涉嫌利用其 AI模型 Claude的输出内容进行“非法蒸馏”（illicit distillation），借此训练自家模型、复制 Claude部分能力。值得注意的是，随着 Anthropic报告曝光，中文社交媒体近日也流传一项尚未获证实的消息，声称月之暗面疑有包括创办人杨植麟在内的16人遭到带走协助调查。不过，目前尚未见可靠官方消息或主流媒体证实此事，因此相关说法仍应视为网络传言，无法确认真伪。
美国人工智能公司 Anthropic发布的威胁情报报告指出，公司近期侦测并阻止多起来自中国的人工智能实验室的大规模未授权行为，涉及阿里巴巴（Alibaba）、月之暗面（Moonshot AI）及 DeepSeek等业者。
报告指出，阿里巴巴相关操作人员利用 Claude的输出内容协助训练旗下 Qwen（通义千问）系列模型。Anthropic认为，这是其目前掌握规模最大的 AI模型蒸馏行动，2026年5月至7月期间，相关操作与 Claude进行超过1.51亿次交流，最高峰时每天近300万次，涉及超过3500个被认定为虚假的账户。
Anthropic进一步指出，阿里巴巴除了利用 Claude进行模型蒸馏，也将 Claude用于更广泛的 AI研究，包括强化学习及模型架构研究。
至于北京 AI公司月之暗面（Moonshot AI），Anthropic指控其在部分情况下，将原本送往旗下 Kimi模型的使用者请求，在使用者不知情的情况下转送至 Claude，再将 Claude产生的回答直接呈现给使用者，让使用者误以为自己使用的是 Kimi模型。
Anthropic表示，在其中一段为期10天的期间，Moonshot将近30万笔使用者请求转送至 Anthropic，其中绝大多数被送往 Claude Opus系列模型。相关请求透过5380个被 Anthropic认定为虚假的账户进行，这些账户多数疑似位于新加坡及日本。
报告称，Moonshot至少保存部分相关交流内容，并撷取 Claude的推理纪录作为自身模型的训练资料。Anthropic统计，2026年5月至7月期间，Moonshot涉及超过2300万次相关交流。部分被转送至 Claude的使用者请求含有敏感资讯，但 Anthropic表示，目前并不清楚 Moonshot是否曾告知使用者，其请求内容将被传送至 Anthropic。
此外，Anthropic也指控 DeepSeek采取与 Moonshot类似的方式，在未告知使用者的情况下，将部分交流内容转送至 Claude。Anthropic表示，2026年7月短短14天内，侦测到超过1200万次与 DeepSeek有关的模型蒸馏攻击。
Anthropic表示，这份报告涵盖2025年12月至2026年8月期间，公司在全球侦测并阻止的相关活动，范围涉及网络行动、影响力操作、监控、诈骗与欺诈、生物技术滥用、传统武器研发，以及 AI模型蒸馏等7大领域。
截至报告发布，阿里巴巴、Moonshot AI、DeepSeek、小米（Xiaomi）及 Anthropic均未立即回应相关媒体的置评要求。
Ukraine’s Secret War Against Russia Did Not Stay in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Secret War Against Russia Did Not Stay in Ukraine
The post confirms GUR covert support to Mali rebels against Wagner. The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, posted a public statement on Military Intelligence Day alongside a series of images showing GUR operatives across multiple continents, confirming that Ukrainian agents work “from Russia to Africa, from suits to camouflage” to safeguard Ukrainian interests “by any means necessary.”
The post also accompanied photographs of GUR operators that Ukraine previously disowned diplomatically.
Interesting Selection of images:
The photographs Budanov posted do not come with captions. GUR operatives appear in desert terrain, in dense urban environments, and in what appears to be a snow covered landscape that the post links to Antarctica.
Among the photographs included in the post are images that match, in precise detail, photographs published by the Kyiv Post in 2024 that triggered a diplomatic crisis across the Sahel.
The gear, the operators and the tactical setup in Budanov’s post match the photographs from 2024 in enough detail to leave little room for alternative explanation.
The images Budanov chose to publish on Military Intelligence Day are the same images that Ukraine’s government spent months publicly distancing itself from.
The Ambush That First Made People Pay Attention
In July 2024, Tuareg rebels ambushed a Wagner convoy in Mali’s Tinzaouaten desert. At least 84 Wagner fighters and 47 Malian soldiers were killed. For several days nobody claimed responsibility.
Then GUR spokesman Andrii Yusov spoke up. “The rebels received necessary information, and not just information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals,” he said, adding that more details would follow.
The fallout came quickly. Mali and Niger cut diplomatic ties with Kyiv. Ukraine’s ambassador in Senegal was summoned after reposting Yusov’s statement on social media. Facing a diplomatic crisis it had not prepared for, Kyiv walked back the admission and publicly denied involvement.
By then the words were already out and the damage on both sides, to Wagner and to Ukraine’s relationships across the Sahel, had been done.
Ukraine Influence in Sudan
A year before the Mali ambush, a quieter operation was already running in Khartoum. In August 2023, Kyiv sent approximately 100 special forces troops into Sudan’s capital as civil war broke out between the national army and the Wagner backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The mission started as an evacuation but expanded into something more direct.
CNN later documented Ukrainian drone strikes against RSF positions in at least eight separate incidents near Khartoum. The drone controllers had Ukrainian text on them. The attack method, drones diving directly into targets, had not been seen on the African continent before.
One photograph from that period drew particular attention. Never officially confirmed or denied by Kyiv, it showed a fair skinned operator in arid terrain carrying what appeared to be a Barrett MRAD bolt action sniper rifle
Why Ukraine Is Fighting Russia in Africa
Wagner’s African operations have never been purely military. The group extracts gold, diamonds and oil from the countries where it operates, revenues that flow directly back into Russia’s war economy. Disrupting those operations in Africa puts pressure on the same financial machinery sustaining the war in Ukraine.
There is also a more direct calculation at work. Many Wagner fighters operating across Africa gained their experience on Ukrainian soil and are held by Kyiv responsible for documented atrocities there. As one Ukrainian security analyst said, Russian war criminals should know they will never be safe anywhere in the world. Budanov’s post suggests that position has not changed and is unlikely to.
Ukraine in Africa
On Military Intelligence Day, Head of the Office of the President of
Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, posted photographs confirming what Kyiv had
long denied, that its spies are active far beyond Ukraine's borders.
The caption read "by any means necessary."
Russia
has run shadow operations abroad for decades, but Ukraine turning that
same tactic back on Moscow's own proxies is a front Russia wasn't ready
for.
The choice of images
stood out. These same photographs surfaced back in 2024, but Ukraine
publicly disowned them once diplomatic backlash spread across the
Sahel.
That backlash
followed an ambush in Mali, where Tuareg rebels wiped out a Wagner
convoy, eliminating 80+ fighters in the group's worst single loss in
Africa.
Sudan tells a
parallel story. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Wagner backed RSF
positions multiple times, part of a deployment of around 100 special
forces troops sent into Khartoum.
As
the brutal war drags on, Sudan's own leadership had quietly sought
Ukraine's help, while the RSF's rival found backing in Moscow.
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