Tuesday, July 14, 2026

华裔美国地震学家研究朝鲜核试爆惹祸?遭中国拘押近两年

 华裔美国地震学家陈有林(Youlin Chen,音译)已在中国遭拘留近两年,并被中国 政府依间谍罪起诉,但这起案件至今才首次曝光。据路透社报导,54岁的陈有林2011年取得美国公民身分。他的妻子容玉芳(Yufang Rong,音译)表示,陈有林因曾发表美国政府资助的朝鲜核试验探测 ...

华裔美国地震学家研究朝鲜核试爆惹祸?遭中国拘押近两年


华裔美国地震学家陈有林(Youlin Chen)因曾参与美国政府资助的朝鲜核试验探测研究,自2024年底起遭中国拘留、去年被以间谍罪起诉。美国已将他列为“遭错误拘留”人士,并将争取其获释列为优先事项,事件恐再为美中关系增添摩擦。

 

华裔美国地震学家陈有林(Youlin Chen,音译),已在中国遭拘留近两年,并被中方以间谍罪起诉。这起案件至今首次曝光,恐为美中两个核武大国之间的紧张关系再添摩擦。

陈有林于2011年取得美国公民身分,定居波士顿。据路透社,陈有林的妻子容玉芳(Yufang Rong,音译)指出,陈有林因曾发表美国政府资助的朝鲜核试验探测研究,被中国官员多次盘问,并在2024年11月5日于北京机场遭中国国家安全人员逮捕。当时他赴中国探亲及两所大学发表研究,正准备搭机返回波士顿。

容玉芳表示,丈夫遭拘留初期无法取得治疗糖尿病及其他疾病所需药物。此后外界难以得知其羁押状况,但陈有林已消瘦30至40磅(约13.6至18.1公斤),且仅能获得质量不佳的药物。

陈有林于2025年5月1日被正式依间谍罪起诉,但至今尚未受审。美国驻中国使馆官员曾多次探视陈有林,但每次都有中国官员在场,使他无法自由交谈;他遭拘留超过13个月后,才首度获准会见中国律师。

容玉芳接受路透社访问时表示,她担心北京在开庭前便已认定丈夫犯下间谍罪,且审判将采不公开方式进行。依中国法律,间谍罪最高可判处无期徒刑,情节特别严重者甚至可能判处死刑。

美国国务卿卢比奥(Marco Rubio)3月19日曾将54岁的陈有林列为“遭错误拘留”人士,使为其争取获释成为美方优先事项;容玉芳指出,特朗普政府未公开公布这项决定,是为了保留政府高层外交斡旋空间,以争取陈有林获释。

朝鲜核试验研究

容玉芳指出,中国官员已针对陈有林有关朝鲜核试验地震波特征的研究,盘问他超过100次。

陈有林曾于2020年12月发表一篇论文,分析朝鲜已知六次核试爆的规模,以及区分核爆与地震的地震波特征。论文封面注明,该研究是为美国国务院军备管制局撰写,且“已核准公开发布”。

人质倡议组织Global Reach顾问、曾任美国国安官员的雷布森(Eric Lebson)指出,陈有林有关朝鲜核试验的地震波研究,是由美国国务院及空军研究实验室资助,并与中国学者合作、使用中国公开资料,相关成果均可于网络查阅。此外,陈有林任职于美国政府承包商,从未持有美国安全许可,也未参与任何机密工作。

不过,有人权团体指出,根据中国《保守国家秘密法》,中国政府可将官方数据等原本公开的资料列为国家机密,使持有或分享原本公开资讯的人士面臨法律风险。

雷布森认为,中国可能希望利用陈有林的专业知识,提升运用“解耦技术”(decoupling)掩盖地下核试爆的能力。所谓解耦技术,是透过降低爆炸产生的地震波强度,减少地下核试遭外界侦测的可能性。

特朗普政府今年2月指控,中国曾于2020年6月22日利用解耦技术掩盖一次低当量地下核试爆。中国则否认曾进行该次核试爆。中国已签署《全面禁止核试验条约》,但该条约尚未在全球生效。

被美国政府列入“错误拘留”名单

随著特朗普近日表示,中国国家主席习近平预计9月访问华府,此案届时可能再次成为美中领导人会谈议题。

容玉芳表示,白宫与国务院曾告知她,特朗普今年5月访问北京期间,曾向习近平提及丈夫遭拘留一事。习近平当时承诺会了解情况,但中国政府至今仍未采取任何行动。

人质倡议组织“弗利基金会”(Foley Foundation)指出,包括遭限制出境人士在内,中国目前至少有12名遭错误拘留的美国人,陈有林是其中之一。

白宫副新闻秘书凯利(Anna Kelly)表示:“特朗普总统已明确表示,希望所有遭拘留海外的美国公民都能返家。自本届任期开始以来,他已协助超过100人与家人团聚。”美国国务院总统人质事务特使办公室及中国驻美大使馆均未立即回应置评请求。

德国总理 默茨再提《广场协议》 指人民币被低估至少25%

亮劍∗中國夢/China - 【默茨公然呼籲效仿廣場協議對付中國】 美国搞垮日本的“广场协议”,默茨竟呼吁用在中国身上【亮剑】德国总理默茨也太德国总理 默茨再提《广场协议》 指人民币被低估至少25%


德国总理默茨呼吁与中国就其货币政策展开对话。他表示,面对一个人为操纵本国货币的竞争对手,无论欧盟有多么创新、产品质量有多么优秀,都难以在公平条件下取胜。
 

德国总理默茨周一(7月13日)在科隆大学发表演讲时指出,欧洲长期以来低估了中国在全球政治和经济领域的影响力。他表示:“我们需要与中国开展一场政治层面的货币对话。”

据《柏林晨报》报道,为应对贸易紧张局势,默茨提出了一项借鉴历史模式的外交解决方案。他以1985年的《广场协议》以及此前的欧洲货币体系为例,认为这些机制可作为各方通过合作方式管理全球汇率调整及汇率波动区间的参考。

“我们目前正尝试将与中国的对话引向寻求解决方案的方向,说服中国让其本国货币自由浮动,包括在资本市场竞争的背景下。”

默茨认为,人民币相对于欧元至少被低估了25%。在他看来,这种低估使中国出口商获得了不公平的价格优势,导致大量低价商品涌入欧洲市场,并进一步扩大欧盟对华贸易逆差。

推“一揽子改革措施” 默茨欲令德国“重回正轨”

数据显示,去年欧盟对华贸易逆差约为3600亿欧元,其中德国的逆差约为900亿欧元。

彭博社报道指出,默茨6月19日在欧盟峰会上谈及这项议题时,也曾提到《广场协议》,并表示“我现在设想的也是类似的做法。”

1985年,美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国的财政部长及央行官员在纽约广场饭店举行会议,协调政策使美元对日圆及德国马克等主要货币有秩序性地贬值,以解决美国巨额贸易赤字。


伊朗局势剧变:民间武装力量正式宣告成立

flags #flagdujour the Lion and Sun flag being used in protests worldwide is  the Iranian flag before the 1979 revolution 7月13日,一段约52秒的夜间视频在X平台流传。视频中,几名身穿迷彩服、持AK式步枪的男子站在伊朗旧国旗前,发表“声明第1号”,宣布成立“库姆军事集团”(Qom Military Group)。该集团由洛尔组织(Javid-Naman-e Lor)的家属、前政治犯以及洛尔(Lur)和巴赫蒂亚里(Bakhtiari)地区的活动人士组成。

声明明确表示,他们全力支持“狮子与太阳革命”(Lion and Sun Revolution),誓言推翻伊朗毛拉政权,并将此举与今年1月政权对超过4.5万名抗议者进行的残酷镇压直接联系起来,称要保卫人民、进行社区自卫。组织特意选择7月13日宣布,以纪念1909年巴赫蒂亚里人征服德黑兰的周年。


https://twitter.com/i/status/2076915208174370912


历史记载显示,1909年7月13日,巴赫蒂亚里部落与吉兰力量攻入德黑兰,结束了卡扎尔王朝的统治,这是伊朗立宪革命的关键事件,具有强烈象征意义。“狮子与太阳革命”是反对派常用表述,指使用旧国旗的反政权运动。

尽管视频被反对派账号广泛转发,但截至7月14日尚未有主流国际媒体独立证实该组织成立,伊朗官方也无回应。这一宣称目前仍属社交媒体流传的信息。

The Kurdish-Iranian rebel group, Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), based near the Iraqi-Iranian border says it is ready to fight the Iranian regime if needed. There have been widespread media reports ...X平台评论人士“淘喵先生”表示,民间武装力量的正式宣告成立,正为伊朗反抗现政权的斗争注入全新且激烈的变数。或将标志着国内反对力量从抗议转向组织化武装抵抗的新阶段。

《金融时报》 - 迪拜砸钱建新港口 直接绕过霍尔木兹

BREAKING: The UAE is planning to build a new port and container terminal on  the country's east cost to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, per FT. Details  include: 1. Dubai's DP World 据英国《金融时报》13日消息,面对伊朗战争引发的霍尔木兹海峡航运危机,迪拜环球港务集团(DP World)正计划在阿联酋东岸富查伊拉(Fujairah)沿海兴建一座全新多功能港口及集装箱码头,力求绕开这条受地缘风险严重困扰的海峡,大幅减少对旗舰港口杰贝阿里港(Jebel Ali)的依赖,并为货运提供陆路替代路径

LinkInBio] DP World charts new course beyond Hormuz | The Dubai-based port  giant plans to build a new port and container terminal on the UAE's east  coast to cut reliance on Jebel知情人士透露,该集团正在洽谈于富查伊拉沿海开发多功能新港口,并在阿联酋现有港口内兴建新码头,同时已与政府官员就条款清单展开磋商。项目结构与融资方案尚未最终确定,但新港口最快可能在一年半内竣工。这项计划将使集装箱无需行经霍尔木兹海峡即可进出阿联酋,随后通过卡车运往迪拜、阿布扎比以及邻近波斯湾国家,进一步深化迪拜环球港务集团在阿曼湾的布局。富查伊拉港地处霍尔木兹海峡以外约70海里的阿曼湾,可直接进入印度洋,成为阿联酋规避该海峡风险的战略枢纽。这与阿联酋政府推动通过强化东海岸物流基础建设、提升经济韧性的国家战略相符。

自2026年2月底伊朗战争爆发以来,伊朗已向阿联酋发射近3000架无人机或导弹,数量超过其他任何国家。在冲突初期,杰贝阿里港曾发生火灾,当局将其归因于导弹被拦截后掉落的碎片。自战争爆发以来,作为中东地区最大集装箱港的杰贝阿里港吞吐量骤降逾90%至95%,阿联酋经济所倚重的核心物流枢纽面临系统性压力。这促使港口运营商不得不寻找替代这条水道的可行方案。

DP World to build new port in Senegal costing over $1 billion | Reuters迪拜环球港务集团拒绝证实上述东岸项目的具体细节,但表示“正制定多元化计划,以应对此次海峡航运中断”。评级机构穆迪估计,受战火影响,今年迪拜环球港务集团的整体盈利将从2025年的66亿美元降至约59亿美元,下滑近11%。

上述计划折射出霍尔木兹海峡局势对波斯湾地区贸易基础设施的深远冲击。阿联酋此举不仅是企业层面的应急之举,更是国家推动“零霍尔木兹依赖”的战略转变,旨在提升整体经济韧性,避免继续受制于伊朗控制下的海峡局势,彻底摆脱被动局面。

Citi joins NATO initiative to mobilise private capital for defence production, industrial resilience and military technology across allied economies

 Citi joins NATO Initiative to Mobilize Private Capital for Defence  Production - Citigroup

Citi joins NATO initiative to mobilise private capital for defence production, industrial resilience and military technology across allied economies

Citi has joined NATO’s new Call to Action to support the mobilisation of private capital for defence production, industrial resilience and military technology across allied economies. The bank said the initiative is intended to increase financing for companies developing and manufacturing technologies considered essential for NATO deterrence and defence.

The announcement followed NATO’s summit in Ankara last week, where member states faced the challenge of raising defence spending while ensuring industry can convert budget commitments into military capability. The initiative calls on banks, investors and other capital providers to expand financing for the defence industrial base.

“A strong and resilient Europe is in all our interests. Citi is proud to support NATO’s Call to Action and help mobilize the capital and financial expertise needed to strengthen the Alliance’s security for the long term.” said Nacho Gutiérrez Orrantia, Citi Europe CEO.

NATO's $1.9 Trillion Defence Revolution: Why Private Capital Has Become  Essential to Global Security - an apoliticalCiti said the initiative reflects the need to connect higher defence budgets with industrial capacity. The bank said private finance will be important in helping companies scale production, strengthen resilience and support innovation.

“The argument behind the NATO initiative is simple, higher defence budgets matter only if industry can deliver. We know that that capital formation will be essential to turning allied rearmament into real capability,” said Stephanie von Friedeburg, Global Head of Public Sector Group, Citi.

The bank works with sovereign clients, ministries of defence and NATO-aligned governments on procurement, financing, payments and liquidity flows. It also works with defence companies seeking capital to expand production and support the delivery of military technologies.

Citi said it remains the only global bank with a continued presence in Ukraine. The bank said it has supported the Ukrainian government, public-sector institutions and the country’s emerging defence ecosystem since Russia’s invasion.

The bank has also developed a transparent payment mechanism to support the delivery of defence equipment to Ukraine. Citi said the structure includes controlled disbursements and governance around donor-funded procurement, and could be scaled for wider Ukraine reconstruction.

“The challenge for governments is turning defence priorities into executable programmes,” said Georgi Yordanov, Citi’s lead on Defence for Public Sector in Europe. “This is a strategic effort to bridge the gap between national security needs and private sector finance. This requires financing, payment infrastructure and risk-management tools that can support procurement at scale and help connect sovereign demand with industrial capacity.”

Citi describes itself as a banking partner for institutions with cross-border needs, a global leader in wealth management and a personal bank in the United States. The bank operates in more than 180 countries and jurisdictions, providing financial products and services to corporations, governments, investors, institutions and individuals.

Germany’s engine giant bought an armored vehicle maker

 

Germany’s engine giant bought an armored vehicle maker


Key Points
  • DEUTZ AG agreed on July 9, 2026 to acquire FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau for €1.6 billion in cash and shares.
  • FFG's owner families will hold up to 29.9% of DEUTZ, with the deal expected to close by early 2027 pending shareholder and regulatory approval.

Deutz AG - WikipediaGermany’s DEUTZ AG, a 160-year-old engine manufacturer better known for building diesel motors than battle tanks, agreed on July 9 to buy FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau, one of Europe’s leading makers of armored vehicles, for €1.6 billion (roughly $1.83 billion).

Gelobtes Land | FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau GesellschaftThe deal marks the largest acquisition in the Cologne company’s history and signals a decisive break from its industrial past, transforming an engine maker into a full systems supplier for European militaries almost overnight.

FFG, based in the northern German city of Flensburg near the Danish border, builds and overhauls wheeled and tracked military vehicles for the Bundeswehr and for NATO partners, including Ukraine. The company’s catalog includes the WiSENT armored recovery vehicle, which tows and repairs disabled tanks under fire and has been supplied to Ukrainian forces, and the ACSV G5 combat-support vehicle developed for the Norwegian military. FFG also maintains and modernizes older platforms still in active service across Europe, including the Wiesel light armored vehicle and the Leopard 2 main battle tank, work that keeps decades-old fleets combat-capable without the years-long wait for entirely new hardware.

The "Genesis", a fully functional demonstrator for an electric armoured personnel transporter recently presented by FFG (Flensburger Fahrzeugbau-Gesellschaft) in Germany. 150 km all-electric range at a speed of 40 km/h, eight 171

DEUTZ will pay for the acquisition with roughly €1.0 billion ($1.14 billion) in cash, financed through a consortium of international banks, and about €0.6 billion ($685 million) in newly issued DEUTZ shares. That share component is the structural heart of the deal. FFG’s private owner families will receive stock representing up to 29.9% of the combined company, a stake that puts them just below the threshold at which German takeover law would force them to bid for the entire company, and positions them as long-term anchor investors rather than a family simply cashing out. The families are also seeking two seats on DEUTZ’s supervisory board once the transaction closes.

“Technological sovereignty, innovative capability, speed of execution: Joining forces with FFG, DEUTZ will become a leading national systems provider for military vehicles, propulsion systems, and energy solutions. Together, we will fulfill our responsibilities for security and future resilience in Europe, while securing value creation and high-quality jobs in Germany,” said DEUTZ CEO Dr. Sebastian Schulte.

June 20, 2023, FLENSBURG, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany: Flensburg (Germany),  20/06/2023.- An engineer tank Dachs is seen at FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau  Gesellschaft during a visit of NATO Secretary General and German Defence  Minister inFFG brings vehicle platforms, armor expertise, and decades of relationships with defense ministries. DEUTZ contributes a propulsion portfolio that spans conventional combustion engines, hybrid drivetrains, and decentralized power systems for use in the field, along with a global service network and manufacturing know-how built up over a century and a half of scaling industrial engines. FFG will operate as the new core of a dedicated DEUTZ Defense business unit, staying operationally independent while DEUTZ provides the financial and strategic backing to grow it.

“With this strategic combination with DEUTZ, we are setting the course for the next generations. At the same time, it will create a German industrial group in the defense sector that combines the strengths of the two companies and provides impetus for their shared long-term development,” said Norbert Erichsen, spokesman for FFG’s shareholder families.

Germany has moved to sharply increase military spending and rebuild domestic production capacity following years of reliance on aging Cold War-era stockpiles, and Berlin has repeatedly stressed the strategic value of keeping weapons manufacturing inside national borders rather than dependent on foreign suppliers. Defense programs typically run for ten to 30 years once a platform enters service, which means a single acquisition like this one can lock in manufacturing jobs and supply chains for a generation, a point both companies emphasized in announcing the deal. FFG’s more than 1,100 employees will join a DEUTZ workforce of roughly 6,000, and the order backlog FFG currently holds runs several times higher than its annual revenue, according to the companies.

The company generated approximately €760 million ($868 million) in 2025 revenue under German commercial reporting standards, and DEUTZ expects the acquisition to push its own 2030 strategic targets, €4 billion ($4.57 billion) in annual revenue and a 10% operating margin, within reach ahead of schedule. DEUTZ has flagged significant revenue synergies in its existing Engines and Service divisions as FFG’s vehicle programs create demand for propulsion systems and maintenance contracts, along with further cost savings as the two companies combine back-office and manufacturing functions.

DEUTZ shares jumped by roughly 6% in early trading the morning the deal was announced, according to Handelsblatt, a sign investors view the shift into defense as a credible growth path rather than a distraction from the company’s engine business.

The acquisition folds into what DEUTZ calls its Next DEUTZ strategy, a transformation from a single-product engine manufacturer into a diversified industrial group built around four other business units: Energy, Engines, New Tech, and Service. Defense now becomes a fifth pillar, with FFG serving as its foundation. The move follows a pattern playing out across German industry this year, as manufacturers with adjacent technical capabilities look to defense contracts as a source of stable, long-cycle revenue at a moment when European governments are committing to sustained increases in military budgets.

The deal still needs approval from DEUTZ shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting scheduled as a virtual event on August 24, 2026, along with clearance from antitrust regulators. If both hurdles clear, DEUTZ expects to complete the acquisition by the end of 2026 or in the first quarter of 2027. Until then, FFG continues operating independently, delivering and maintaining vehicles for the Bundeswehr and allied forces while the corporate paperwork works its way through Cologne and Flensburg.

革命卫队最高指挥官传遭美军击毙、伊地下指挥部多高官亡

 

 革命卫队最高指挥官传遭美军击毙、伊地下指挥部多高官亡 

中东地区再度爆发大规模军事冲突。根据 X平台上多个消息指出,美国与以色列军方于昨夜至今晨对伊朗含地下指挥部在内的境内多处战略目标发动了毁灭性的精确空袭,甚至传出有伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)高层与重要核心官员等多人身亡,多处关键基础设施亦遭到彻底摧毁。

根据 X平台@Osinttechnical的消息指出,美军于13日凌晨针对伊朗沿海城市西里克发动猛烈空袭,现场随即发生巨大爆炸并升起熊熊火光。随后,伊朗军队于今晨开始发射弹道导弹作为反击。与此同时美军也持续向伊朗的基础设施发动空袭,据 X平台@HormuzLetter发布的消息称,美军首次针对伊朗石油出口枢纽“哈格岛”的石油基础设施发动直接打击。NASA FIRMS卫星影像也显示,该岛西部码头泵站及多条供应管道因遭受空袭而冒出猛烈火势。

美军近日首次针对伊朗石油出口枢纽“哈格岛”的石油设施发动军事打击。

同时,X平台@RealBababanaras报导称,部署于科威特的美军海马斯系统发射了精确打击导弹,并成功摧毁伊朗陆军第292独立装甲旅的一处弹药与武器储存设施,现场引发多起严重的二次爆炸。

此外,军事核心人物方面更传出伊朗高层遭遇“斩首式”打击。根据 X平台@defense_civil25发布的消息称,美军在一次针对德黑兰一处地下指挥中心发动的空袭行动中,成功击毙伊斯兰革命卫队最高指挥官瓦希迪(Ahmad Wahidi)将军。不过这项消息并未获得伊朗方面的证实,此前曾多次传出瓦希迪已经死亡,后来瓦希迪在出席哈梅内伊的葬礼时,粉碎了这些传言。

伊朗已故最高领袖哈梅内伊的灵柩被运抵德黑兰伊玛目霍梅尼侯赛尼耶,并于现场举行告别仪式。仪式期间,伊朗革命卫队总司令瓦希迪亦出席致哀。图:翻摄自观察者网

传言指出,瓦希迪是在战争初期多名同僚将领阵亡后接任指挥职务,不料于今晚传出在德黑兰遇袭身亡,惟相关消息仍未经伊朗官方证实。此外,更有消息宣称,地位仅次于前伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊(Mojtaba Khamenei)的伊朗重要核心教士阿拉菲(Ayatollah Alireza Arafi)也传出在一场由以色列战斗机发动的空袭中遭到斩首。

目前美、以、伊三方皆尚未发表官方正式声明,但多方消息均显示双方冲突已冲上新一波高峰,加上美国总统川普(Donald Trump)先前曾扬言若伊朗敢对其发动暗杀,将出动上千枚导弹将伊朗彻底摧毁,种种迹象皆显示中东局势正朝着全面失控的方向发展。

RealBababanaras的推文 - https://x.com/RealBababanaras/status/2076476129406550457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2076476129406550457%7Ctwgr%5Ebee185868023a1601898d1495a0448ba96fface0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fif-cdn.com%2F6InQHB3W%3Fapp%3D1

不只瓦希迪,伊朗重要核心教士阿拉菲(Ayatollah Alireza Arafi)也传出在一场由以色列战斗机发动的空袭中遭到斩首。