Thursday, June 18, 2026

Cina intensifies to destablilise Singapore province

 A sensational headline for a video claiming that Singapore is being overrun by Indians.

How a Chinese film sparked cognitive warfare on Singapore

A heartfelt film about a Teochew grandmother unexpectedly triggered heated debate about culture and politics. Han Yong May, deputy editor-in-chief of SPH’s Chinese Media Group, takes a look at the cognitive warfare campaign targeting Singapore’s multiracial identity.


The film Dear You has sparked discussion over various issues of identity, politics and culture.
The film Dear You has sparked discussion over various issues of identity, politics and culture. (Internet)

Seeing affordable airfares at the end of March, I booked a flight to Chaoshan for early June. My plan was to take a few days off to eat, drink and unwind, but I happened to travel just as the movie Dear You (《给阿嬷的情书》) was taking China by storm. So, on my second morning in Shantou, I headed straight to the cinema to catch the film in its original Teochew dialect.

From cinema seats to cyberattacks

This low-budget production has pulled off a remarkable feat, becoming a box-office sensation across mainland China. Following the publication of a column in Lianhe Zaobao (LHZB), the film also began attracting attention in Singapore much earlier than it otherwise might have. A slew of commentaries sprang up covering various points of view, including articles critiquing other commentators.

The film is director Lan Hongchun’s final instalment in his Teochew-dialect family trilogy. Before my trip, I did a bit of homework and watched the first two films, Proud of Me (《爸,我一定行的》) and Back to Love (《带你去见我妈》). The first chapter revolves around a father and the second around a mother. Both are fairly conventional hometown stories — engaging and entertaining, but not especially moving. The final chapter, however, focuses on a grandmother, delivering a profound emotional impact that sets it apart from the first two films.

Many have yet to see the film, so I will avoid spoilers — I would rather leave everyone to experience this simple, heartfelt story rooted in Chaoshan culture for themselves. What I want to discuss instead is why so much noise emerged afterwards, distracting attention from the film itself.

... within 48 hours of the column’s publication on 21 May, attacks on LHZB and narratives disparaging Singapore’s system of governance surged across multiple social media platforms. 

The noise emerging from the film has overshadowed the film itself.
The noise emerging from the film has overshadowed the film itself. (Internet)

The first wave came after my colleague, Sim Tze Wei, watched the film in Beijing and wrote a piece on Dear You, exploring its implications for China’s United Front work. While I don’t entirely agree with her view, it was a personal column meant to offer her own perspective. It is only natural for such a strongly worded article to spark debate, especially given the sensitive nature of the issues it touches upon. What was troubling was that what followed did not resemble a healthy exchange of views — it felt more like the author and LHZB were thrown into a boxing ring and getting beaten up.

Using Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) techniques, I reviewed the social media activity around the article and found that within 48 hours of the column’s publication on 21 May, attacks on LHZB and narratives disparaging Singapore’s system of governance surged across multiple social media platforms. 

Much of the content attacking LHZB and Singapore sidesteps the article’s central arguments altogether and goes into broad-brush condemnation, inflating the issue into accusations that “the Singapore establishment is systematically erasing traditional Chinese culture”.

The spike was so sharp that it produced a statistically abnormal pattern, unlike how genuine grassroots discussions typically spread. Much of the content attacking LHZB and Singapore sidesteps the article’s central arguments altogether and goes into broad-brush condemnation, inflating the issue into accusations that “the Singapore establishment is systematically erasing traditional Chinese culture”.

‘Cheapfakes’ and racial fault lines

About a week later, claims that Singapore was suppressing Chinese culture became intertwined with another narrative — one that had recently subsided after being heavily promoted: race. The argument shifted towards claims that Singapore was becoming increasingly “Indian”. To fuel this narrative, many of these inflammatory videos used footage filmed between 2022 and 2024, focusing heavily on large crowds gathered for Indian festivals and cultural celebrations.

A sensational headline for a video claiming that Singapore is being overrun by Indians.
A sensational headline for a video claiming that Singapore is being overrun by Indians. (Internet)

This tactic does not even rise to the level of a deepfake; at best, it can be described as a “cheapfake”. Producing such content requires little technical sophistication — all that is needed is some copyright-free footage, AI-generated text designed to provoke a strong emotional response, and text-to-speech software to churn out videos at scale. This is exactly the kind of content-farm operation that has become increasingly common online.

Upon investigation, the content shows clear indicators of foreign influence and is not the result of spontaneous public sentiment, but rather organised, coordinated disinformation.

The set of inflammatory content centred on the “Indianisation” of Singapore was published in a concentrated burst between 21 May and 1 June, closely overlapping with the public controversy surrounding Dear You. Upon investigation, the content shows clear indicators of foreign influence and is not the result of spontaneous public sentiment, but rather organised, coordinated disinformation.

Its narrative design is exceptionally sophisticated. It distorts Singapore’s multiracial governance, framing it instead as a “cultural anxiety born from the de-sinicisation of Chinese elites”. By doing so, it shifts the target of criticism from external hostility to an alleged betrayal from within the community, ultimately amplifying divisions by weaponising and recontextualising ethnic imagery.

It first manufactures cultural anxiety, then incites racial tension, allowing the two narratives to mutually reinforce one another.

Cognitive warfare in the post-truth era

On 6 June, the Singapore Police Force invoked the Online Criminal Harms Act to block 14 posts; however, content farms have continued to circulate similar videos online. At present, there is no publicly available evidence proving that the two originate from the same coordinated operation, but the alignment in timing and the consistency of methods are sufficient to reveal the outline of this cognitive warfare campaign.

People walk in the Chong Pang neighbourhood of Singapore.
People walk in the Chong Pang neighbourhood of Singapore. (SPH Media)

In the post-truth era, there is no need to persuade everyone. It is enough to generate sufficiently strong emotions within targeted circles, fostering anxiety within Singapore’s Chinese community over cultural identity and demographic shifts, and translating that anxiety into dissatisfaction with the government and a perceived dependence on external forces. Once this psychological shift is achieved, the manipulation has succeeded.

While I do not think the film has any United Front agenda, the subsequent wave of hostile and false commentary makes it clear that a cognitive warfare campaign is already underway. Some well-known commentators have also jumped on the bandwagon, airing sweeping opinions without even verifying basic facts, which is truly disappointing.

In a multiracial, multiethnic society like Singapore, shaped over centuries by successive waves of immigration, issues involving history and culture often touch on sensitive nerves. Cultural sentiment, shaped by personal experience, family history and values, sits alongside more politically calculated readings that weigh identity, social cohesion and security.

Keeping culture and politics separate

Culture is not inherently political, but because it unites people through shared emotion, it creates a powerful sense of community. This communal bond can generate political spillover effects, transforming culture into an object of intense contestation and interpretation among competing political forces and public opinion.

... in modern multiracial and multicultural states, cultural identity must never be conflated with national identity. To confuse the two is to risk total disorientation in the face of cognitive warfare.

While the empathetic power of cinema naturally evokes cultural sentiments that aid in cultural dissemination, it also raises a critical question: can this emotional connection be weaponised as a tool for geopolitical conflict? By all historical precedents, this is a distinct possibility. One line of thought holds that cultural sentiment is the emotional bedrock of political identity, guiding its direction and anchoring its support. However, in modern multiracial and multicultural states, cultural identity must never be conflated with national identity. To confuse the two is to risk total disorientation in the face of cognitive warfare.

The most easily conflated concepts are “cultural identity” and “political identity”, which often lead to the false assumption that resonance and alignment at a cultural level must naturally translate into political allegiance. In an era saturated with fake news and cognitive warfare, this ambiguity is easily exploited by competing political narratives to weaponise public opinion. This phenomenon is by no means unique to the East; the West is no different.

The crowd at the National Day Parade 2025 National Education show, 12 July 2025, in Singapore.
The crowd at the National Day Parade 2025 National Education show, 12 July 2025, in Singapore. (SPH Media)

In the film, the grandmother takes decades to uncover the truth behind her "love letter". Today, living in an era of hyper-connectivity and information overload, we should be more discerning about what is true and what is false, rather than being swayed by the current clamour of public opinion.  

To shed tears over Dear You is to have one’s core humanity stirred; to hear its theme song, Brewing Tea Under the Moon, and long to share a quiet cup with loved ones is an expression of the simplest, most unadorned tenderness within us.

Yet, upon stepping out of the cinema, you remain who you are — a citizen of this land. Being able to distinguish between these two distinct sentiments is, in itself, an act of cognitive clarity. It is our simplest, most fundamental line of defence against emotional manipulation in the post-truth era.

欧洲议会为欧美关税协议开放绿灯

🇪🇺🇺🇸 川普总统的又一次大胜,欧洲议会为欧美关税协议大开绿灯💥💥 欧洲议会议员以三分之二多数通过决议:欧盟对美国工业品取消关税 ,并扩大美国海产品、农产品市场准入;多数欧盟出口美国产品则被征收15%关税。 这就是“坦伯利协议”——冯德莱恩去年夏天在高尔夫球场跟川 ...  欧洲议会为欧美关税协议开放绿灯


欧洲议会通过一项决议,为全面实施与美国之间备受争议的关税协议扫清了障碍。大多数出口至美国的欧盟产品将被征收15%的关税;对美国工业品的进口关税则将被取消。


 欧洲议会议员周二(6月16日)在斯特拉斯堡以三分之二的压倒性多数投票通过决议,取消针对美国工业品的关税,并为美国海产品及农产品提供更广泛的市场准入。

这是欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩去年夏天与美国总统特朗普在苏格兰坦伯利(Turnberry)的高尔夫球场上所讨论的内容,因此也被称为“坦伯利协议”。

欧盟试图通过这项颇具争议的协议避免与美国再启贸易战。美国总统特朗普坚持要求迅速落实该协议。

“这项协议并不完美,”瑞典欧洲议员约尔根·瓦尔博恩(Jörgen Warborn)坦言道,“但这是我们目前能达成的最好的协议,是企业迫切需求的。这无关乎你是否支持特朗普,而是关乎支持欧洲企业。”

“不完美但迫切需要”

这项贸易协议旨在为跨大西洋贸易关系带来稳定性。尽管如此,欧洲议会在协议中争取加入了一系列保障条款。重要的一项是:美国仅在全面履行协议义务的前提下,方能享受这些优惠待遇。

若美国违反相关协议(例如再次上调关税),欧盟可暂停给予美国的关税优惠。此外,预计美国会在年底前将针对洗衣机及其他含钢产品的关税降至最高15%;若未能实现这一目标,欧盟拟考虑征收同等水平的关税。

该贸易协议定于2029年底自动失效——这一时间点大约在特朗普任期结束一年之后。

决议的实施还需获得欧盟部长理事会的确认。欧盟成员国代表与议会已达成一致,相关法规应最迟于7月4日生效。

几周前,美国总统特朗普提出将7月4日这一美国国定假日作为落实贸易协议的最后期限。特朗普在其社交平台“真相社交”(Truth Social)上表示,如果欧盟未能在此之前履行协议中其应尽的义务,关税将“立即大幅上调”。

威胁仍未消除

6月初,美国威胁要对包括欧盟在内的多方征收关税,理由是它们在应对进口产品涉及强迫劳动的问题上采取的行动不力。欧盟委员会驳斥了这一指控。欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席朗格(Bernd Lange)认为,美方的这一举动意在为其政府任意实施的关税政策寻找新的法律依据;此前,美国最高法院已推翻了特朗普政府所征收关税中的关键部分。

美国政府还在调查贸易伙伴(包括欧盟特定行业)存在的结构性产能过剩是否正在损害美国经济。如果得出肯定结论,则可能据此征收关税。

朗格表示,在协议执行过程中还将建立持续监控。未来,欧盟委员会将必须每三个月报告一次贸易近况,并在关税优惠到期前六个月提出全面评估。在此基础上,欧盟机构将决定是否延长对美国有利的法规。

欧盟与美国保持着广泛的双边贸易和投资关系。根据欧盟的数据,欧美的贸易占全球货物和服务贸易总额的近30%,以及全球经济产出的43%。2024年,欧盟与美国之间的货物和服务贸易总额约为1.7万亿欧元。

德国向美国出口大量机动车及零部件、医药产品和机械设备。根据德国联邦统计局(Destatis)的数据,今年前三个月,德国对美出口总额为362亿欧元。与去年同期相比,这一数字下降了12.1%——当时针对汽车等商品的高额进口关税尚未生效。同期,德国从美国进口了价值238亿欧元的商品(增长了1.9%)。

Manus中国投资人据报拟以20亿美元价格从Meta手中回购公司

 Meta以约20亿美元收购母公司在中国的人工智能初创公司Manus。该消息公布约三个多月后,传出中国政府对涉及交易的Manus 关联人员采取限制出境等处罚措施,引发外界关注中国是否开始阻止人工智能企业迁往海外。 消息传出后,Meta发言人强调,收购交易完全符合适用法律。Manus ...

Manus中国投资人据报拟以20亿美元价格从Meta手中回购公司

据科技媒体《The Information》周四援引两位直接知情人士报导称,人工智能初创公司Manus的早期中国投资人计划以脸书母公司Meta当初支付的20亿美元价格回购该公司。报导称,此举是为了回应中国政府要求撤销这笔交易的命令。

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

G7领导人声明:重申反对任何单方面改变台海等现状企图

G7聲明讚川普領導力!反對改變台海現狀挺烏、加碼制裁俄】 在法國舉行的七大工業國集團(G7)峰會,今天發表有關地緣政治議題的領袖聲明。這份聲明在伊朗局勢 等議題上,明顯展現對美國總統川普的顧慮。聲明同時也表達,反對片面改變東海、南海及台灣海峽的現狀 

 G7领导人声明:重申反对任何单方面改变台海等现状企图


七国集团峰会15日到17日在法国东部小城埃维昂莱班举办。七国集团领导人在周三公布的“就地缘政治问题”的联合声明中表示,“我们强调建立在法治基础上的自由开放的印度-太平洋的重要性。我们重申反对任何单方面改变现状的企图,特别是以武力或胁迫手段改变东中国海、南中国海和台湾海峡两岸的现状,这些问题只应通过对话和平解决”。

就印度-太平洋,七国集团领导人联合声明续指,“我们对朝鲜的核和弹道导弹计划深表关切,并重申我们致力于根据联合国安理会决议实现朝鲜完全无核化。我们敦促朝鲜立即解决绑架(日本人)问题。我们重申有必要共同应对朝鲜的加密货币盗窃和网络犯罪”。

声明提及,“我们欢迎马克龙总统于2026年6月11日召开的全球趋同促增长峰会,中国也参与其中。我们重申,我们与其他大型经济体在造成全球长期严重失衡的原因以及解决这些问题的必要性方面趋同有着共同的利益。我们将继续在美国担任东道主的二十国集团(G20)峰会期间以及其他相关论坛上为此作出努力”。

“全球趋同促增长峰会”是马克龙在欧盟将决定是否加强对华贸易政策前,试图与中方进行最后接触的努力之一,以寻求合作途径。欧盟将在七国集团峰会结束后立即举行欧盟峰会,中国问题将成为18日至19日布鲁塞尔峰会的重要议题之一。

值得一提的是,七国集团领导人还通过声明表示,“坚定不移地支持乌克兰捍卫其自由、主权和领土完整。我们重申与遭受关键基础设施和文化遗产袭击的乌克兰人民站在一起。我们赞扬乌克兰近几个月来在战场上展现出的韧性和取得的进展,并强调目前存在一个新的势头”。

声明亦提及,“我们承诺加大对俄罗斯军事经济的压力。为此,我们将加强制裁,包括对石油和天然气行业的制裁。鉴于特朗普总统已达成一项我们支持的协议,重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,我们认为现在是采取进一步措施的恰当时机”。

此前,七国集团领导人周二发表了“关于互利国际伙伴关系的宣言”。宣言提到,“我们将根据二十国集团(G20)《高质量基础设施投资原则》,促进供应链韧性和多元化,以及具有韧性的交通、能源和数字基础设施建设,包括通过七国集团全球基础设施和投资伙伴关系(PGII)开展相关工作。为此,我们将倡导一种新的经济和发展走廊模式,去风险并调动私人资本,包括通过七国集团基础设施投资理事会开展相关工作”。

宣言补充道,“我们也认识到可靠的关键矿产价值链对共同繁荣的重要性,并致力于通过供应链上的国际合作以及基于高标准、透明度和本地价值创造的互利伙伴关系,充分发挥关键矿产价值创造的经济潜力。鉴于供应链中断,我们责成各国部长与国际金融机构和国际组织合作并进行监督,评估获取化肥等基本投入品对全球的影响,并协调对有需要国家的支持,以应对全球粮食安全问题”。该文件表示,宣言反映了七国集团成员讨论的成果,并受益于与伙伴国家富有成效的意见交流。

炼油厂屡遭攻击 俄罗斯会出现油荒吗?

乌克兰狂炸俄罗斯炼油厂,导致俄罗斯本土闹“油荒”!背后有何影响 

 炼油厂屡遭攻击 俄罗斯会出现油荒吗?

受乌克兰对炼油厂的无人机袭击的影响,俄罗斯的燃料产量正在下降。专家评估,汽油和柴油需求的季节性激增可能会引发能源危机。
 

俄罗斯燃料供应短缺的问题正在加剧。乌克兰针对俄境内炼油厂的无人机袭击已导致多个地区的燃油供应中断。

而这可能仅仅只是开始。未来几个月,燃料市场面临的压力料将进一步增大。如果无人机袭击的强度不减,且受损炼油厂无法恢复正常运营,局部短缺问题就有可能演变成一场全面危机。

据德国之声对公开资料的分析,过去几周,俄罗斯十多个地区出现了燃料供应中断的情况。一些加油站实施了限制措施,甚至完全停止了汽油销售。
补给线被封锁

克里米亚半岛的情况尤为吃紧。来自乌克兰的无人机袭击,已经让被称为“新俄罗斯公路”(Novorossiya Highway)的交通干道陷入瘫痪。该公路连接克里米亚半岛与俄罗斯罗斯托夫地区,是至关重要的燃料供应通道。

乌克兰国防部长米哈伊洛·费多罗夫(Mykhailo Fedorov)用“封锁补给线”来形容针对克里米亚与俄罗斯之间运输线路的袭击。这已迫使克里米亚的俄罗斯占领当局采取了严格措施。

例如,目前只有凭配给票证才能买到高标号汽油。据当地媒体报道,几周前,几大连锁加油站已停止向个人出售此类汽油;而普通汽油的单次购买量也受到限制,最高仅限20升。

几天前,俄罗斯本土克拉斯诺达尔地区的15家加油站停止了燃油销售。据当地有关部门统计,该地区共有约1000家加油站,相比之下,停售的加油站数量看似不多。
哪里出现了油荒?

然而,社交媒体上越来越多的人抱怨,即便在未宣布暂停售油的加油站,汽油也经常售罄。许多人将此归因于大量驾车者从克里米亚涌入克拉斯诺达尔边疆区加油。克拉斯诺达尔边疆区州长康德拉季耶夫(Veniamin Kondratyev)形容当前局势“严峻”,并称出现了“人为制造的加油潮”。

尽管燃料短缺的情况还不算很严重,但目前几乎波及了全国。在俄罗斯中部地区,库尔斯克、别尔哥罗德、梁赞和奥廖尔等地的部分加油站出现了供应短缺;甚至连莫斯科市及周边地区也零星出现了类似的抱怨。

西北部地区也存在问题,涉及圣彼得堡以及列宁格勒、普斯科夫、诺夫哥罗德和摩尔曼斯克各州与卡累利阿地区;西伯利亚和远东地区也有燃油短缺情况的报道。

受影响最集中的主要是那些不隶属于大型石油公司的小型加油站。因此,现在谈论全面危机还为时过早。不过,相关投诉日益增多,且汽油价格已连续数周稳步上涨——每周涨幅高达0.5%。

无人机袭击造成了多大损失?

俄罗斯几乎每年都会经历程度不一的临时性燃料短缺。在夏季,受农业生产活动和度假旺季影响,对汽油和柴油的需求通常会上升;此外,炼油厂也会进行例行维护检修。

2024年和2025年,乌克兰的无人机袭击加剧了这些因素的影响,导致程度超出了以往的危机。今年,甚至在季节性因素完全产生作用之前危机就已经开始浮现,因为无人机袭击不仅发生得更早,而且显然更有力度。

根据彭博社的测算,仅在5月份,俄罗斯十大炼油厂中就有八家遭到无人机袭击。其中一些炼油厂——例如位于下诺夫哥罗德(Nizhny Novgorod)和彼尔姆(Perm)的卢克石油公司(Lukoil)旗下炼油厂,更是多次成为袭击目标。

盘点乌克兰情报机构的“高光”行动

总部位于莫斯科的俄罗斯大型投资公司Finam的战略总监雅罗斯拉夫·卡巴科夫(Yaroslav Kabakov)指出,这些袭击不仅波及了初级加工设备,还影响到了用于生产汽油和柴油的二次加工设施。他解释道:“修复这些设施需要数月时间,而限制设备供货的制裁措施更给修复工作增加了难度。”

关于燃料生产的统计数据在俄罗斯大多属于机密。不过,已公布的部分数据显示,燃油产量较上年同期大幅下降。

据俄罗斯统计局(Rosstat)数据,2026年4月的石油产品产量同比下降了9%。彭博社的估算显示,5月份的降幅更为显著,产量较上年同期水平低了13%。

据独立研究机构能源与清洁空气研究中心(CREA)称,位于图阿普谢(Tuapse)的俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)炼油厂受袭击影响尤为严重。2026年1月至5月期间,该厂的石油产品出口量同比下降了73%。CREA估计,由此造成的出口损失达17亿欧元。


防止危机蔓延

业界人士警告称,如果炼油厂停产状况持续,可能会引发系统性燃料短缺。一位燃料市场消息人士告诉俄罗斯《生意人报》:“目前,只有克里米亚地区感受到了严重的燃料短缺。尽管俄罗斯其他地区尚有储备,但现有供应量已显不足。如果局势得不到改善,到7月下旬或8月上旬,短缺问题将波及更多地区。”

俄罗斯能源部于6月8日成立了一个“行业特别工作组”来防止危机蔓延。该工作组的任务是确保“整个燃料与能源行业的稳定高效运行”。

此前,当局已实施汽油出口禁令——这是一项经常采取的措施;然而,随后的航空燃油出口禁令则是史无前例的。在圣彼得堡国际商品原料交易所,来自白俄罗斯的汽油供应量已大幅增加。


影响规模尚不明朗

普遍预计,正如去年那样,燃料价格还会上涨,但涨幅不会太大,因为俄罗斯的汽油零售价格受到国家严格管控。一些独立加油站和小型连锁加油站可能会暂时停业,以避免亏损。

CREA专家艾萨克·利维(Isaac Levi)表示:“乌克兰的无人机袭击正给俄罗斯石油行业造成重大损失。这些袭击扰乱了运营,削减了炼油产能,增加了维修与安保方面的支出,并造成了物流瓶颈。”

但根据利维的分析,俄罗斯国家所受的损失依然有限。无法在国内加工的原油可以出口。只要中东战事持续扰动全球市场,这种有利局面便将得以维持。

乌克兰无人机也将目标对准了俄罗斯的出口基础设施,但迄今为止,这些袭击并未对产生重大影响。据彭博社报道,俄罗斯的海运石油出口量甚至在6月初创下了自战争爆发以来的最高水平。

白宫冷待、统战部同框:郑丽文15天访美行程带回了什么?

白宮冷待、統戰部同框:鄭麗文15天訪美行程 ... 

 白宫冷待、统战部同框:郑丽文15天访美行程带回了什么?

国民党党主席郑丽文在“郑习会”后访美,但历史性的15天行程被指“高开低收”。

她不仅未能走入白宫会见美国国安会官员,在侨胞活动上更与中共统战部代表同框,能否让美方“释疑”、巩固党内领导地位引起外界关注。

台湾政治人物访问美国一直被视为“面试”,国民党作为台湾最大在野党,党内巨头今年内接连访美,郑丽文、卢秀燕、韩国瑜等人获待遇规格的高低,都成为了重要的指标,可能左右2028年总统大选布局。
白宫会面“无疾而终”

郑丽文结束15天访美行程,她在出发前曾表示“非常愿意”与美国总统特朗普见面,但媒体拍摄到其公开行程的政治“含金量”有限。

外界原本预计郑丽文有机会进入白宫艾森豪大楼,与美国国家安全会议(National Security Council)官员会面。但台湾媒体《联合报》报导,媒体6月10日在大楼出入口等候多时,并未见郑丽文现身。

按照以往台湾政党高层访美惯例,虽然双方不会明确表示会见哪个层级官员,但媒体透过拍摄政治人物有否到访美国核心政府机构,判断会面是否成真。

台湾媒体《自由时报》报导,郑丽文除了未能拜访国安会官员,其访美行程只与国务院科室官员(Desk Officer)会晤,较以往惯例安排副助理国务卿(Deputy Assistant Secretary)接待连降三级。

新加坡《海峡时报》在6月13日刊登文章,指出美方对于郑丽文访问似乎反应冷淡,并未给予隆重礼遇,更让郑感到挫折的是,规划中的白宫国家安全会议官员会谈,最后也无疾而终。

国民党表示,与美国行政部门的交流,基于双方默契不对外透露任何会面安排细节,强调郑丽文“见到该见的人,说了想说的话”,批评有媒体刻意扭曲事实。

根据公开行程,郑丽文拜访多位美国参众议员,包括与众议院外交事务委员会主席马斯特(Brian Mast)、外交委员会东亚暨太平洋小组主席金映玉会面,亦出席多个美国智库机构活动。
郑丽文拜访多位美国参众议员

媒体报导,郑丽文出席侨胞活动时,有中国统战组织的代表出席,包括纽约中国和统会长焦圣安出席纽约侨宴,与中共统战部关系密切的俞国梁则在波士顿侨宴跟郑丽文同框。国民党回应,焦圣安由参加侨宴的台湾侨胞邀请出席,俞国梁不在侨宴名单上,只有跟郑丽文合照并没有同桌共餐。

美国在台协会(AIT)处长谷立言早前接受媒体专访时提到,美方关注国民党是否正在“从根本上改变政治取向”,并认为郑丽文此行是一次“释疑”的机会。

台湾陆委会副主委兼发言人梁文杰表示,中国和平统一促进会出席郑丽文访美行程,反映中共势力已经渗入侨界,会列为重要警示。

中国外交部发言人毛宁在6月2日回应郑丽文访美,表示“关于中国台湾地区对外交往问题,应当按照一个中国原则处理。”

会面层级是否“降格”?

资料显示,以往国民党高层访美,多以间接方式交代会见那些层级的官员。

2015年时任国民党主席朱立伦访美,被媒体拍摄到走入美国国务院和白宫国安会所在的艾森豪行政大楼。

当时朱立伦没有正面承认会晤的官员身份,但媒体广泛报导他会见时任副国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)、亚太助理国务卿罗素(Daniel Russel)和国安会亚太事务资深主任康达(Daniel Kritenbrink)等人。

2022年朱立伦再以党主席身份访美,被问到是否会见时任助理国务卿康达,他婉转表示“好高兴见到老朋友”。

2026年3月,国民党籍台中市长卢秀燕访美,亦被媒体拍摄到前往美国在台协会(AIT)在华盛顿的总部,由执行理事蓝莺(Ingrid Larson)出面接待。

郑丽文遭冷待的原因


美国德州山姆休士顿州立大学政治系副教授翁履中说,美方派出甚么层级官员,有两方面的考虑。

首先,根据美国外交惯例,美方会评估政治人物的政治履历,例如朱立伦曾担任行政院副院长,亦曾任民选的桃园县长和新北市长,美方派出国安会负责亚太事务的官员,或者是国务院助理国务卿会见。

“郑丽文虽然是国民党党主席,但她的政治资历并没有真正的民选官员层级,在美国外交接见外国来的政治人物,本来给的层级就不会太高。”

其次,他认为郑丽文访美期间,在胡佛研究所表示第一岛链可以是和平岛链的论述,直接否定美国数十年来的安全防卫战略,“就我所得到的消息,当你讲出这个,美方很多人就觉得,你是在告诉我说,我从50年代以来的策略就是错的,那我们没得谈。”

翁履中表示,郑丽文提出的构想对美国国会和智库组织而言是太理想化,甚至引起外界质疑该套论述是否来自北京授意。美方关注郑丽文访美期间言行,当然会相应调整会晤官员级别。

新加坡国立大学政治学系副教授庄嘉颖向BBC中文表示,虽然美中在“特习会”后,有共识稳定双边关系,但双方仍有相当大的互相怀疑。在这情况下,国民党作为中间人角色,太侧重一方,便会失去另一方的信任。

“郑表示自己跟中国的关系越好,在美国方面她的筹码就越低......之前她强调跟中国的关系,然后又在她的领导下,国民党一直阻挡台湾的国防预算,造成美方对她的疑虑会比较多。”

他直言,若郑丽文政治立场只代表北京,美方大可直接跟中方沟通,缩减郑在美国眼里的价值。加上她访美期间会见台侨时,有中国统战色彩的人物出席,亦加深了美方的疑虑。
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    郑丽文结束访陆北京发对台“十项措施” 台北批“一中框架化”

2026年4月12日
“郑习会”:国共领袖握手13秒,郑丽文倡“制度性解决方案”,讲话未毕直播被切断
2026年4月10日
从“中华民族”到“台湾民族”,解读郑丽文的非典型论述

    2026年4月9日

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郑丽文在旧金山与侨胞见面

图像来源,Facebook/鄭麗文
图像加注文字,郑丽文在旧金山与侨胞见面
蓝营巨头接力访美的解读

继卢秀燕、郑丽文访美后,台湾媒体报导,预计国民党籍立法院院长韩国瑜在今年6月访美。美国在台协会回覆媒体查询时表示,鼓励美台立法部门拥有强健的关系。

国立台北大学公共行政暨政策学系教授刘嘉薇向BBC中文表示,郑丽文访美想传达和平避战的想法,但能否得到美国鹰派信任,是很大的挑战。她分析,蓝营高层接连访美,反映美方考虑未来蓝营高层可能出现变动,需分散风险掌握不同国民党要角的沟通渠道。

“郑丽文现在是主席,但未来她不见得是主席;韩国瑜现在是立法院长;卢秀燕未来有可能参选总统的人,他们各自有重要位置,美国可能会看得长远一点。”

学者翁履中表示,今年3月卢秀燕访美会见官员规格,已与郑丽文不同;若韩国瑜落实访美,估计获郑丽文更高层级的接见待遇,美方透过接见规格,向外界释出那个国民党的政治人物更可靠的政治讯号。

他强调,在美国的利益来看,台湾有两个美国均可选择和值得支持的政党,才是最符合美国利益,“国民党也必须是个electable(具备获选要素)的政党,才符合美国利益,否则就像消费者只能买一个品牌,他就没得比价了。”

翁履中分析,若郑丽文有意竞逐2028年的总统大选,她必须要在美中路线做出调整,并带领国民党赢得今年底的地方选举,才能获美方重视,“他们在乎的是,那个会赢的政党是否能与他们合作。当你展现出胜选可能时,美方对你的接见层级与热烈程度就会变得很明显。”

学者庄嘉颖表示,后续值得观察郑丽文会否调整其外交路线定位,例如返台后会否加深“疑美论”或调整路线。另一方面要观察韩国瑜对美态度,会采取“亲中”路线,还是拉拢国民党内亲美的声音,去突显与郑丽文的分别。

他指出,郑丽文访美成果,从政策层面没有与美国打好关系;但在选举思维角度出发,郑丽文的路线能否带领国民党赢得地方选举,亦反映这次访美的成败。

“郑现在的路线是否能帮助国民党赢得更多的选票和支持,还是说是扣分需要再做调整?未来没有人晓得,或许是郑愿意去赌的事情。”


The U.S. Dollar Is the World’s Reserve Currency. Why Does That Matter?

Questions rising from US dollar's weakness | The StarThe U.S. Dollar Is the World’s Reserve Currency. Why Does That Matter? 

 The U.S. dollar is the primary reserve currency for the world’s financial system — but what does that mean, and why is it important to the United States’ public finances?

The U.S. dollar has served as the world’s primary reserve currency for more than 80 years — a privileged status that carries with it significant benefits for our domestic economy. The country's unsustainable fiscal outlook, however, threatens to diminish the dollar’s standing, which would have damaging fiscal and economic consequences for the United States.
What Is a Reserve Currency?

Reserve currencies are safe and stable currencies held by central banks and investors across the world as part of their official exchange reserves. Reserve currencies are distinguished by their ability to maintain value and be easily transacted. They have historically been based in countries that have large domestic economies, stable governments, sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies, and large, open financial markets. Reserve currencies are easily convertible and are used to anchor the value of other currencies; holding them allows countries to weather economic shocks, service debts, moderate the value of their own currencies, and support domestic companies' purchase of imports. While the U.S. dollar is the most held and most important global reserve currency, there are several other currencies that also serve as reserves, albeit with much lower volume, including the British pound, Chinese renminbi, the euro, and Japanese yen.


What Makes the U.S. Dollar the World’s Primary Reserve Currency?

The U.S. dollar has officially been considered the world’s primary reserve currency since it overtook the British pound’s position in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. While the British pound was the global reserve currency in the 19th century, World War I and II triggered economic distress in England, while the United States’ economic and political influences were increasing rapidly. Since 1944, the U.S. dollar has maintained its status because of the United States’ stability, large gross domestic product (GDP), unmatched geopolitical influence, and liquid and dynamic capital markets.

Chart: The Rising Power of the Dollar | StatistaCurrently, the U.S. dollar is the most used global currency. The U.S. Federal Reserve publishes an index of international currency usage, combining a weighted average of five measures: official currency reserves, foreign exchange transaction volume, foreign currency debt issuance, foreign currency and international banking claims, and foreign currency liabilities. In 2024, the U.S. dollar had an index value of 66.6 whereas the next most used currency, the euro, had a value of 23.8.

According to recent research published in the Journal of Financial Economics, key factors in the U.S. dollar’s strength are its high usage in global savings (the currency held by companies, central banks, and other major financial institutions) and high investor demand (the worldwide market’s appetite for buying dollar-based assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds).


How U.S. Fiscal Policy Benefits From Having the Global Reserve Currency

The reserve status of the dollar provides two critical benefits to the U.S. fiscal condition: lower borrowing costs and higher borrowing capacity.

Global demand for dollars in turn creates demand for U.S. sovereign debt. To acquire dollars, central banks and other market participants purchase and hold U.S. sovereign debt, which is issued in the form of Treasury securities. While the price of U.S. Treasuries fluctuates due to a number of variables, this increased demand in Treasury securities pushes interest rates on Treasury securities lower than they would be if the U.S. dollar was not the global reserve currency. One prominent economist estimated that the reserve currency status decreases interest rates by 10 to 30 basis points.

Another benefit of the increased demand for U.S. debt due to the U.S. dollar’s reserve status is its impact on overall borrowing capacity. Greater demand allows the United States to borrow more than it otherwise would. Put simply, the U.S. dollar’s attractivness means it is easier to sell large amounts of U.S. treasuries without incurring additional interest costs. A 2024 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research posits that the reserve currency status of the dollar increases the debt the U.S. government can accumulate by 22 percent. That advantage is especially powerful in times of economic stress.


Is the U.S. Dollar’s Role as a Global Reserve Currency at Risk?

Chart: U.S. Dollar Defends Role as Global Currency | Statista  While the U.S. dollar has so far maintained its status as the global reserve currency, there are signs that this position may be eroding.

A central tenet that supports the U.S. dollar’s reserve status is the confidence in the stability of the U.S. government and its institutions. While the United States remains a very stable nation, domestic political trends and increased polarization in Congress have made it more challenging to implement legislation in key areas. First and foremost, that polarization has made fiscal reform difficult. The country’s total deficit is currently 5.8 percent of GDP and is projected to increase over time. By 2036, the United States will run a deficit of approximately $3 trillion, of which more than $2 trillion will be attributed to net interest costs.

Rating agencies have taken note of rising debt. In 2025, Moody’s Rating became the final of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade the U.S. credit rating (following S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023), citing an inability of the nation’s policymakers to address large and growing deficits. The United States’ imbalance between spending and revenues undermines the perception of the United States (and its currency) as stable, which is the bedrock trait of a reserve currency.

While it is unlikely that a single currency will dethrone the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency, the privilege the U.S. taxpayer enjoys from the U.S. dollar’s status may nevertheless decline if global economies reduce their demand for U.S. dollars generally. The most plausible potential alternatives to the status of the dollar are China’s renminbi, euro area’s euro, and cryptocurrency — all of which have drawbacks compared to the U.S. dollar. For example, while China and the euro area comprise the world’s second- and third-largest economies, their respective currency markets remain substantially smaller than the U.S. dollar. As for cryptocurrencies, they are not broadly perceived as sufficiently safe stores of value to supplant the dollar.


Conclusion

The United States continues to enjoy significant fiscal benefits due to the U.S. dollar serving as the world’s reserve currency. Global demand for U.S. dollars contributes to lower interest costs and greater borrowing capacity, particularly in times of global economic distress. While the U.S. dollar has so far maintained its reserve status, political gridlock and our deteriorating fiscal outlook threaten to deteriorate this important position. Preserving and strengthening the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is a key reason that lawmakers should work to stabilize the U.S. debt outlook in the years ahead.