China has added more than $43 trillion in debt since Xi Jinping took power.

China has added more than $43 trillion in debt since Xi Jinping took power. That’s not a typo.

The Wall Street Journal’s latest reporting lays out the math: China’s total debt to GDP blew past 300% in 2025, up 60 points since 2019, now higher than the United States. Most of that growth didn’t come from Beijing’s own books, the central government’s debt stays relatively modest at around 30% of GDP. It came from local governments, through murky financing vehicles cities and provinces used to hit growth targets, many of them pouring money into real estate that then collapsed.

A broader IMF measure that counts both official local debt and those shadow vehicles puts China’s real government debt load at 127% of GDP, up from 98% just five years ago.

Here’s where the money went: factories and apartments nobody needed enough of. That mismatch triggered price wars, squeezed profits and wages, and now feeds directly into deflation and weak demand at home.

And it doesn’t stay home. Chinese companies carrying all that debt keep producing more cars, solar panels, and electronics than China itself can absorb. The surplus gets exported, undercutting prices everywhere else and fueling the trade fights now playing out with country after country.

Economists call this the real signature of the Xi era: investment-driven growth long after the investments stopped paying off. The capital controls and state-run banks mean China probably avoids a sudden collapse. What it doesn’t avoid is a slow bleed, years of suppressed returns and weaker growth, while everyone downstream absorbs the overflow.

China’s debt interest costs are soaring above U.S. levels and growing faster than any other budget category as Beijing struggles to prop up growth

China’s debt interest costs are soaring above U.S. levels and growing faster than any other budget category as Beijing struggles to prop up growth

The world is flooded with debt, but while the U.S. and Europe have caused angst on global markets lately, China's fiscal situation isn't looking so great either.

In fact, China's debt has shot up so much in recent years that interest payments on all its borrowing are commanding a bigger share of public spending.

Debt-servicing payments will account for 19.2% of the central government's general public budget this year, up from 12% in 2014, according to new Conference Board estimates cited by the Financial Times.

 

That tracks with a separate report earlier this year from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which found that 19% of Beijing's spending is earmarked for interest on debt. That's more than the 14% of the U.S. federal budget that goes to interest costs, though less than Japan's 25.6%.

CSIS added that China's spending on interest payments skyrocketed 341% between 2013 and 2025, faster than any other major budget category. By comparison, total spending jumped 102% in that span, with outlays on social security and employment up 207%, science and technology up 137%, and defense up 141%.

To be sure, U.S. debt-interest spending looks grim, too, and has surged about 390% since 2013 to $1 trillion, which also tops the Pentagon's budget.

But the world's two biggest economies have been diverging in key ways with implications for future growth and indebtedness.

The U.S. economy is accelerating, helped by the AI boom, and despite high inflation, resilient consumers have continued to spend. Unemployment is low and signals full employment, while stock markets are at or near record highs.

Of course, hyperscalers are racing to issue bonds to fund their data centers and chip purchases, but they are also raising money with fresh stock offerings and IPOs.

Meanwhile, China's GDP has been decelerating and is on pace to undercut its annual target of 4.5% to 5%. And while export-facing sectors are growing at a fast clip, trade partners are putting up barriers; Chinese consumers remain reluctant to spend; investment is weak; the property sector is still digging out from an epic crash; and Chinese stocks have been anemic.

Beijing has also steered state banks to provide financing to priority industries like electric vehicles, robotics, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy.

But under pressure to lend, many loans went to questionable borrowers. Business debt has doubled since 2019, while revenues are only 30% higher. Creditors continue to roll over loans to keep struggling firms afloat, even as nearly a third of them are losing money.

China's state-led growth model now looks like it's running out of steam, and the rapidly expanding mountain of debt is a warning sign as local governments often seek to boost favored industries with low-cost loans.

According to the International Monetary Fund, China's general government gross debt hit 107% of GDP this year, up from 41% in 2015 and on a path to reach 124% in 2030.

A broader measure of indebtedness across the public and private sectors reveals an even worse picture. China's total debt-to-GDP ratio, excluding the financial sector, doubled since 2010 and has now topped 300%, Capital Economics estimated earlier this year.

But in the U.S., total public and private debt last year was about 265% of GDP, down sharply from pandemic-era highs.

Not only has China's debt boom hit diminishing returns, but it's also becoming a drag on the economy.

"The irony is that one driver of both government borrowing and the lax lending standards of [state-owned] banks is the desire to prop up economic growth and prevent job losses," Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, wrote in May. "But the product of a credit boom that has been underway for 18 years is a banking system propping up unproductive firms, widespread losses across industry, and entrenched overcapacity."

THEY FOUGHT FOR A COUNTRY THAT DIDN’T ALWAYS ACCEPT THEM

        🇺🇸 THEY FOUGHT FOR A COUNTRY THAT DIDN’T ALWAYS ACCEPT THEM.

During World War II, one of the most extraordinary stories in American military history unfolded: the story of the 442nd Regimental Combat Team, a unit composed almost entirely of Japanese American soldiers.

Known as the Nisei—second-generation Japanese Americans—these men served their country at a time when Japanese Americans faced widespread discrimination. Following Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, more than 100,000 people of Japanese ancestry, most of them American citizens, were forcibly removed from their homes and incarcerated in camps. Yet thousands of Japanese American men still volunteered to serve in the U.S. military. 🇺🇸

Activated in February 1943, the 442nd trained at Camp Shelby, Mississippi, before deploying to Europe in 1944. The unit fought in some of the war’s toughest campaigns in Italy and France, earning a reputation for extraordinary courage under fire.

One of its most legendary missions came in October 1944, when its soldiers fought through brutal conditions to rescue the “Lost Battalion”—211 American soldiers trapped behind German lines. The rescue came at a terrible cost, with the 442nd suffering more than 800 combat casualties during the operation.

But their legacy goes far beyond a single battlefield.

The 442nd Regimental Combat Team became the most decorated U.S. Army unit for its size and length of service, earning thousands of individual decorations, including 21 Medals of Honor and thousands of Purple Hearts. In 2010, the unit was collectively awarded the Congressional Gold Medal in recognition of its extraordinary service.

Their motto was “Go for Broke”—a phrase meaning to risk everything.

These soldiers fought enemies overseas while confronting prejudice at home. Their story is a powerful reminder that courage, sacrifice, and patriotism cannot be measured by a person’s ancestry.

They didn't just help win a war. They helped challenge the meaning of American citizenship and belonging.

Their bravery deserves to be remembered. 🇺🇸

我們正夢遊般走向第三次世界大戰嗎？

美國海軍伯克級飛彈驅逐艦「巴里號」（USS Barry）2021年9月17日航經台灣海峽。美國對台安全承諾的可信度，是英國《金融時報》首席外交評論員拉契曼（Gideon Rachman）分析全球衝突擴大風險時關注的議題。（圖取自美國海軍）

全球不知不覺走向三戰？ FT示警：川普態度恐誘發習近平誤判

全球區域衝突接連發生，第三次世界大戰的風險再度受到關注。英國《金融時報》（Financial Times，FT）首席外交評論員拉契曼（Gideon Rachman）17日撰文探討，當大國競逐加劇、美國對盟友及台灣的安全承諾出現不確定性，是否可能讓局勢在一連串誤判中逐步失控。

拉契曼在文中以「我們正夢遊般走向第三次世界大戰嗎？」（Are we sleepwalking into World War III?）為題，以「夢遊」比喻國際局勢可能在各方未充分察覺風險的情況下，逐步走向更大規模的衝突。他分析，世界大戰通常涉及主要強權直接交戰，且戰事跨越多個大洲，目前雖然尚未跨過這兩項門檻，但區域衝突仍可能因意外升高而擴大。

國際危機組織（International Crisis Group）統計，全球目前有65場持續中的衝突，創下第二次世界大戰結束以來新高。拉契曼認為，西方相對實力下降，也讓挑戰既有國際秩序的國家有更多冒險空間。七大工業國集團（G7）占全球國內生產毛額（GDP）的比重，已從1989年的約三分之二降至2022年的43%。

拉契曼指出，俄羅斯、中國、伊朗與北韓的關係日益緊密。俄羅斯與北韓2024年簽署共同防禦條約，中國的經濟與技術支持則協助俄羅斯承受西方制裁、持續對烏克蘭作戰。俄羅斯對支持烏克蘭的歐洲國家採取的混合戰手段，也增加意外升級的風險。

文章並以歷史為例，說明對他國防衛決心的誤判可能造成嚴重後果。1914年，德國認為英國不會因比利時中立問題參戰；1939年，希特勒則認為英法可能再次退讓。拉契曼將這些歷史案例與當前大國面臨的安全承諾問題相連結。

台海安全繫於美國承諾可信度

這項警訊也牽涉台海。拉契曼指出，中國國家主席習近平必須判斷，美國《台灣關係法》所反映的反對以武力改變台灣現狀的立場，是否仍具實質意義；俄羅斯總統普丁則必須評估北大西洋公約組織（NATO）第五條集體防禦條款是否可靠。

拉契曼也以台灣生產全球約90％最先進半導體為例，認為美國不太可能接受台灣被中國吸收。不過，川普對盟友安全承諾的態度，使美國在危機中會如何行動更難預料。當各國無法確定對方是否會履行安全承諾，誤判便可能增加衝突擴大的風險。

中国完成筹1.3兆人民币超长期特别国债发行

 
中国完成筹1.3兆人民币超长期特别国债发行


（北京17日讯）中国今年通过发行超长期特别国债，筹集1.3兆元人民币（约7939.5亿令吉），用于国家重大项目、设备更新及消费品以旧换新，支持投资与消费。

据新华社报道，中国财政部周五再发行200亿元人民币（约122.1亿令吉）相关国债，完成今年《政府工作报告》提出的全年发行目标。

在筹集的资金中，8000亿元人民币（约4885.8亿令吉）用于落实国家重大战略及重点领域安全能力建设项目；2500亿元人民币（约1526.8亿令吉）支持消费品以旧换新；2000亿元人民币（约1221.5亿令吉）支持大规模设备更新。

另外，500亿元人民币（约305.4亿令吉）用于设立财政金融协同促内需专项资金。


以旧换新带动2.08亿笔交易

分析人士指出，超长期特别国债是中国当前财政政策的重要工具。自2024年以来，中国已连续3年发行这类国债，反映更积极的财政政策持续提供针对性支持。

相关资金通过消费品以旧换新计划，为消费注入动力，带动通信设备、高能效家电及可穿戴智能设备零售额保持快速增长。

官方数据显示，今年首8个月，以旧换新计划涵盖2.08亿笔交易，涉及535万辆汽车、超过9100万台家电，以及1.08亿件数字与智能产品。

共军轰-20研发十年仍未试飞！最大致命短板曝光

中共广受瞩目的轰-20匿踪轰炸机计划早在2016年启动，但截至2026年，仍没有任何经证实的试飞或部署纪录。

美国资深军事记者拉森（Caleb Larson）在国防媒体1945（19fortyfive）网上发文指出，西安轰-20轰炸机目前已陷入开发“恶性循环”的停滞期。而美国轰炸机则历经40年淬链，从F-117一路发展到B-2，再到B-21，形成持续开发周期，并已让B-2在科索沃、伊拉克、阿富汗及伊朗等战场接受实战检验。而他认为，双方差距在于经验，而不是平台设计本身。

拉森指出，中共空军自1979年越战以来，就未再参战，而他们正设法跨越数十年的经验落差。他认为，美国空军是全球匿踪技术的领导者，不仅操作F-22与F-35A两款单座匿踪战机，还拥有全球唯一的匿踪轰炸机，也就是冷战时期研发的B-2“幽灵”。

此外，美国空军正准备接收全球首款第6代轰炸机B-21“突袭者”。不过，美国的主要地缘政治对手中共也具备相当的实力，已部署多款匿踪战机，并计划量产。然而，拉森认为，在匿踪轰炸机领域，中共目前仅有一款在开发阶段，并距离正式服役显然仍相当遥远。

拉森强调，美国的匿踪技术是一段长达数十年、持续精进的发展史。如今诺斯洛普格鲁门的B-21在既有基础上，引进全数位化设计、新材料，以及与其他军机联网的能力，远比先前的B-2与F-117先进。而上述过程不只是一代代改良，更是持续精炼的开发循环成果。系统与特殊性能不断改进，包括雷达吸收材料、机身塑形、边缘对齐控制、热能与红外线管理，以及任务系统整合等。而“突袭者”受益于数十年的操作使用、数据累积与模拟，使它具备深入敌方争议空域作战，并与指挥网整合的能力。

拉森说，中共发展匿踪战略轰炸机的路径截然不同，它并非数十年来稳步测试并实验匿踪技术，而是试图直接纵身一跃，进入崭新的轰炸机领域。数十年来，中共空军一直依赖西安轰-6，而这是苏联图波列夫图（Tu）-16重型战略轰炸机的改型。至于中共的轰-20计划则是在2016年浮现，目标在于打造类似B-2的飞翼匿踪轰炸机。事实上，轰-20是中共首次尝试打造真正具备洲际能力的匿踪轰炸机，而不是只对既有机型进行渐进式改良。

不可否认的，中共毕竟是全球主要军事大国之一，并拥有充裕的国防预算，那为何它在打造匿踪轰炸机的进度上落后美国？拉森指出，匿踪技术远非打造一架能翱翔天际的飞翼那么简单，而是要把众多不同技术完美整合到单一轰炸机平台上。但这正是美国独步全球的领域。匿踪轰炸机成功的关键除了雷达吸收材料外，维修周期必须融入设计，而引擎进气口、热能抑制、机身蒙皮完整性，以及任务规划与航线选择等，都必须列入考虑，单纯拥有具备部分匿踪特性的轰炸机并不够。

中共要帕劳跟台湾断交 一边撒钱，一边射导弹

 

中共大使开条件“百万游客任你要”中共想拿钱买外交，这回碰上了硬骨头。

帕劳总统惠恕仁（Surangel Whipps Jr.）近日接受美国政治新闻网站《Politico》专访，把中共大使私下开的价码全抖了出来。条件很直白：只要帕劳跟台湾断交，每年送来100万游客，帕劳缺多少饭店，中共就盖多少饭店。

大使还掰着手指算账：我们有十亿人，台湾才2300万，跟谁好处多，你自己掂量。

糖衣剥开，里面就是药。惠恕仁说，这类谈话聊着聊着就变了味，对方开始放话：不照办，就等着挨报复。他的评价一句话：这叫哪门子伙伴关系？哪有朋友这样相处的？

百万游客？帕劳还不稀罕

在中南海的算盘里，小岛国见了游客和工程就该点头。惠恕仁偏偏不买账。帕劳最值钱的是那片原始的海和珊瑚礁，每年一百万人涌进来，踩坏了谁来赔？观光和饭店有吸引力不假，拿来当撬外交的筹码，帕劳不干。

他说得很清楚，帕劳并不拒绝跟中共打交道，但中共没资格规定帕劳不准承认台湾。原话掷地有声：

“那是我们的选择，不是你们的选择。”

帕劳做出承认台湾的主权决定，凭什么就要被威胁、被霸凌？

一边撒钱，一边射导弹

这边许愿游客，那边导弹已经飞过来了。今年7月，中共在南太平洋试射长程弹道导弹，射程超过7000公里，落点就在吐瓦鲁附近甚至其专属经济海域，事先只打了个含糊招呼，太平洋岛国一片哗然。澳洲总理艾班尼斯（Anthony Albanese）当场批它挑衅。

惠恕仁也直接质问：北太平洋那么大一片空海，为什么偏要挑岛国扎堆的地方打？

帕劳的底气从哪来

帕劳曾是日本殖民地，约四分之一居民有日本血统，跟东京关系一直很铁。美日在太平洋的联合军演，帕劳也是演训场之一。这个国家没有常备军，安全几乎全靠美国。

有人担心美国被伊朗战事拖去中东、顾不上太平洋，惠恕仁不这么看，他相信川普政府的目光一直没离开这片海。他还认为守太平洋不能只靠美国一家，日本、韩国也得把军力练起来，顺带批评部分美国盟友没能一开始就挺美国对伊朗出手。

一百万游客、满岛的饭店，开出来的价码不算小。中南海大概没想到，一个两万人口的小岛国，会当着全世界的面把这张支票原样退了回来。