Friday, October 9, 2026

欧盟有足够底气向北京亮剑吗?

冯德莱恩宣布欧盟全面升级对华贸易反击措施网传欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在闭门会议中宣布全面升级对华贸易措施,包含全行业保障、公司级反补贴税、堵截第三国转口、强制产业链多元化及公共采购限制,以此反击3600亿欧元贸易逆差与补贴产能过剩。 #欧盟对华贸易全面升级# 

 欧盟有足够底气向北京亮剑吗?

《法兰克福汇报》评论称,欧盟拟议中的强硬反制措施,或许能给正在北京进行的欧中谈判增添筹码,但威慑未必能使北京做出让步,欧洲增强自身实力才是硬道理。《南德意志报》评论也认为,强硬政策并不能保障欧盟在对华竞争中立于不败之地。
 

《法兰克福汇报》评论指出,正在北京进行的欧中贸易谈判的气氛想必不会轻松,因为这一次欧盟贸易事务专员谢夫乔维奇(Maros Sefcovic) 带来了“重型武器”。德法提案一旦获得通过,欧盟今后将拥有必要时可将特定国家排除出欧盟共同市场的“经济核弹”。这篇题为《欧中谈判:立场强硬 底气不足》的评论写道:

“如果仅以紧张来形容当前中国同世界其他地区的贸易关系,显然是在轻描淡写:中国的廉价产品正在洗劫全球市场。中国政府对这些商品提供的补贴,约占中国国民生产总值的4.4%。正如本报专栏作者兰德威尔所描述的那样,生产这些产品的是一支饱受剥削的大约三亿人的产业大军。面对这样的产品价格,任何民主国家都无法与之竞争。今年七月,欧盟同中国的贸易逆差已经增加至360亿欧元,相当于每天都超过十亿欧元。

与此同时,对于事关生存的关键原材料,北京却在随心所欲地时而叫停出口,时而又予以放行。一旦这类原材料断供,西方的生产即刻就会陷入停顿。”

《法兰克福汇报》的评论指出,中国带给全球贸易的冲击,远比特朗普的关税政策更为沉重。特朗普的关税大棒难以持久,但‘中国冲击’却难以在中短期内消失:

“因为要想缓解‘中国冲击’,中国必须先解决自身的问题:提振内需、加强社会保障以及清理房地产市场,凡此种种,都需要耗费漫长的时间。谢夫乔维奇应在北京谨言慎行,不要公开划出红线。否则,欧盟就必须在十月十五日的峰会付诸行动,发布限制措施。或许欧盟新近表现出的强硬姿态,就已足以迫使北京做出让步。但设身处地从北京的角度来看,他们并没有太多理由采取这样的步骤。

亮出威慑武器,或许是立足国际市场的途径之一。但另外的途径则是通过改革强化自身。德拉吉当初为欧盟提出的改革建议的绝大部分,本应在明年年底前落实完毕。但截至今年七月底,落实率还不到16%。法国即将举行的大选以及德国紧张的内政局势,都为欧盟的改革步骤增添了变数。北京对欧盟的困难心知肚明,因此,即便谢夫乔维奇手里有了新武器,他的谈判处境也不容乐观。”

“欧洲准备回击了”


《南德意志报》评论写道,默茨终于在对华贸易政策问题上趋于强硬了,这无疑是件好事,但单凭强硬立场,并不足以赢得同中国的竞争:

“当某个贸易伙伴依仗自身政治或经济实力,胁迫欧盟或其单一成员国时,布鲁塞尔今后应当具备这样的能力:按下‘核按钮’,立即切断相关国家进入欧盟统一市场的渠道。这款武器威力可观,毕竟中国无法舍弃欧洲这一销售市场。如果欧盟不想继续任人蹂躏,就应当敢于亮出这张‘特朗普王牌’,并在必要情况下打出这张牌。值得一提的是,面对特朗普,欧盟也应如此。


不过,当默茨在抱怨中国巨大的贸易顺差时,难免有些讽刺意味。国际舞台上,这类抱怨由来已久,只不过当年的抱怨对象并不是中华人民共和国,而是德意志联邦共和国。过去二十年以来,柏林的当政者一直对这类抱怨充耳不闻,而是寄希望于它总有一天会销声匿迹。现如今,德国总理似乎已经意识到,外国购买力消化本国过剩产能的策略并非长远之计。

既然如此,对北京的强硬路线要想奏效,那么,德国政府也需要提振德国的私人消费。德国政府还需要改善企业的生产条件,包括降低税率、稳定社会福利支出、减少官僚障碍等等。仅凭收紧权力博弈的缰绳显然是不够的。

欧洲也必须正视来自中国的经济挑战:德国总理默茨和法国总统马克龙在通过对华政策立场文件的同时,还希望放宽对燃油车的限制,而不是全心全意地去追随全球的电动车大趋势。只要这种状况不改变,欧盟无论出台多少保护措施,都难以避免在竞争中败给中国。”

How Does the National Debt Affect Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Job Market ?

 The national debt is not just a number on a balance sheet. When federal debt  keeps rising, it reaches into the cost of borrowing, the price of daily  essentials, and the fiscal 

How Does the National Debt Affect Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Job Market ?


The unsustainable national debt poses a risk to our economic future, and young Americans may have the most to lose. Just getting started in their careers, young people already face significant economic headwinds, such as a high cost of living, job market uncertainty, and, oftentimes, student debt. The growing national debt adds to these challenges, compounding the difficulties of finding a job, saving money, and achieving long-term financial success.

This piece examines how our unsustainable debt affects economic opportunities for young people in three key areas of their lives: inflation, housing costs, and the job market.

Rising National Debt Increases the Cost of Living

Rising national debt puts upward pressure on inflation, driving up the cost of goods and services and eroding how far a dollar can be stretched. The Budget Lab at Yale found that five years after a permanent primary deficit increase of 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), households would lose $300–$1,250 in purchasing power.

That represents a significant loss for young people, who are only beginning to build their savings. According to the Federal Reserve, 36 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds reported having enough savings to cover three months of expenses in 2024, significantly lower than older age groups. With limited savings and lower starting incomes as early-career workers, young people are particularly sensitive to rising prices. Higher costs, especially for non-discretionary items like groceries and housing, consume a larger share of a young person’s budget, making it harder to afford necessities and save for the future.


Rising National Debt Contributes to High Housing Costs

As rising debt pushes up government borrowing costs, interest rates across the economy also climb — including mortgage rates. Recent analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale found that the rise in federal debt and interest rates since 2015 translates to approximately $2,500 more per year in borrowing costs for a family taking out a mortgage in 2025, or $76,000 over the life of the 30-year loan, compared to a world without this additional federal debt.

Those higher housing costs would be difficult to absorb for younger Americans, who are already confronting a housing affordability crisis caused by insufficient housing supply. Rent and housing prices have risen faster than wages and overall inflation over the past two decades, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. In this environment, young people face the greatest risk of being rent burdened. According to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 60 percent of renter households headed by a young adult under age 25 spent more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities in 2023, the highest of any age group.

Combined with a high cost of living, higher interest rates can delay the possibility of homeownership. As a result, young people are more likely to live with their parents and less likely to buy a house now than their counterparts did 30 years ago. Since homeownership is one of the primary ways Americans build wealth, being priced out of the market can translate into a less secure financial future down the road.


Rising Debt Weakens the Job Market

Rising national debt also leads to fewer jobs and lower wages. A 2025 report by EY’s Quantitative Economics and Statistics (QUEST) practice estimates that the debt trajectory would reduce wages by 0.6 percent and the number of jobs available by 1.2 million in 2035. In the long run, the American Action Forum estimates that rising debt will reduce income growth from 2025 to 2055 by 16 percent.

A shrinking job market would be especially difficult for young workers, who are already struggling to find jobs in today’s "low-hire, low-fire” labor market. In August 2025, the unemployment rate reached 9.2 percent among 20-to-24-year-old workers, the highest since the pandemic and more than double the rate of 4.3 percent among the general population. Slower wage growth compounds over a young person’s career, reducing lifetime earnings and slowing wealth-building.
Conclusion

Rising debt worsens economic conditions for young people, who are already battling difficult economic headwinds. With our unsustainable national debt, today’s leaders are saddling young Americans with a heavy burden that will have significant long-term consequences for their economic success. Young people have a lot at stake in how our leaders address our present fiscal challenges. It’s critical that they make their voices heard to put our country — and their futures — on a more prosperous path.
 

又說美國會毀了 ? 10年期美债超额认购! 海外需求创纪录高位

 US bonds selloff eases, yields off highs, after strong 10-year note auction  | Reuters 

10年期美债超额认购! 海外需求创纪录高位 


(华盛顿8日讯)美国国债市场迎来久违的喘息机会。

据外媒报导,当地时间周三(7日),美国财政部以5.3%的殖利率完成390亿美元(约1593亿7700万令吉)10年期国债拍卖,是自2000年11月以来的最高水平,推动长端殖利率从逾20年高位回落。

非交易商比例创纪录

外媒称,值得注意的是,此次认购倍数跳升至2016年以来最高,并且非交易商投资者认购比例创下历史纪录。

此次拍卖成交殖利率低于预发行利率约1.88个基点,显示买方主动入场接货。非交易商投资者认购比例高达97.5%,为历史最高;认购倍数升至2.77倍,为2016年以来最强。

间接投标者,通常代表海外官方机构及外国投资者获配比例高达80.3%,为历史第4高;直接投标人获配17.1%,与近期均值17.0%基本持平。

由此一来,一级交易商所获配额仅剩2.5%,为10年期国债拍卖史上最低水平。交易商获配比例极低,通常意味著机构投资者和海外买家竞标积极,无需依赖做市商托底。

SMBC利率策略员甘地(Monty Gandhi)表示,这表明那些资金实力更雄厚的投资者终于发现目前的利率水平具有吸引力。

“大约在5%附近,一些大型参与者曾表示正在平掉空头头寸,我的判断是他们正在缓慢重新入场。”

拍卖结果公布后,10年期殖利率较盘中高点下行逾5个基点,至约5.28%、刷新日低。此前一度触及5.36%,这一水平为2002年以来所未见。30年期殖利率也从5.73%高位回落至5.66%。

不过反弹较为短暂,殖利率随后有所回升,市场人士指出,此次拍卖结果虽然亮眼,但并未改变驱动殖利率上行的宏观基本面逻辑。

美国财政部将于当地时间周四(8日)进行220亿美元(约899亿零700万令吉)30年期国债拍卖,届时成交殖利率有望达到2000年以来最高水平,将再度检验市场的实际承接意愿。

此外,该拍卖结束后,财政部还将随即开展国债回购操作,最高购入60亿美元(约245亿2000万令吉)的20年期至30年期国债,为自该部门扩大长期债券回购计划以来的第4次此类操作,此举背景正是长端殖利率持续攀升至多年高位。

据BMO分析,此次10年期拍卖中交易商获配比例异常之低,印证了来自非传统渠道投资者的强烈需求。

“周四的30年期拍卖能否延续这一势头,将是市场判断债市能否真正企稳的重要观察窗口。”

Taiwan's KMT shows signs of power struggle

Taiwan's KMT Faces Internal Power Struggle as China and U.S. Watch Closely Taiwan's  Kuomintang (KMT) is facing internal tensions at a sensitive moment for  cr... - YouTube

KMT faces a struggle for power in its ranks

A major advantage of democracy is that it can solve political issues through peaceful means. The principle of democracy is that power shall never be forever dominated by one person or a small clique of people.

Power is transferred through elections. Nevertheless, holding elections does not necessarily mean democracy actually exists. Without elections, however, there is no democracy. This is why the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) first chairmanship election last week was not fully democratic.

When the KMT, a century-old revolutionary party, for the first time allowed its rank and file to directly elect its chairman, it was indeed a major step toward democracy, although there is still much for the party to accomplish. Holding elections, however, is only a beginning. The question is whether the KMT can continue its drive to reform itself.

I believe such reform may be difficult because democratic processes are incompatible with the KMT's party structure. It is the pressure of Taiwan's overall democratization that has forced the KMT to adopt a more democratic system. Small wonder that the election turned out to be a baptism by fire, leaving a number of obstacles that are making it difficult to move forward. There are still no signs of a power transfer.

As a result of pressure from Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) has to step down following continuous electoral defeats. Now his protege, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), has also been handed a resounding defeat.

I wonder if Ma's hold on power within the party will be weakened now that Lien has been appointed honorary chairman of the KMT by the party's Central Standing Committee.

I believe that the coming internal struggle will become even more intense than the chairmanship election campaign. The question of whether or not Wang would attend the first meeting of the Central Standing Committee following the election, and whether he would take up his post as acting chairman at that meeting drew media attention.

According to a media report, Wang had previously insisted that he would not participate in the meeting until outgoing KMT Secretary-General Lin Fong-cheng (林豐正) convinced him to do so. However, Wang left halfway through the meeting, after the passage of the proposal to make Lien honorary party chairman, which shows that his purpose wasn't to participate in the meeting, but only to pass the "Lien clause."

In all honesty, the proposal to ask Lien to remain as honorary chairman, if not directed by Lien, was probably organized by Lien's clique within the party. The reason why Lin managed to persuade Wang to participate was for him to help see to it that the "Lien clause" took effect. Why else would he leave to inform Lien that he had been appointed honorary chairman as soon as the proposal was passed?

The question is why it was Wang, who some say will resign from his post as deputy chairman, and not Ma, who informed Lien? According to media reports, the reason Wang left the meeting was because he was planning to meet with legislators supportive of him and seek the support of the newly-elected party representatives in order to gain a majority in the Central Standing Committee election, scheduled for next month.

With Lien having been made honorary chairman and the attempt to win the support of a majority of Central Standing Committee members, one can but wonder what Lien and the KMT's democratic ideals really are.

The KMT's internal struggles have entered the second phase and who will come out ahead remains unknown.

    By Chin Heng-wei 金恆煒  Chin Heng-wei is a political commentator based in Taipei.

Has the AI race reached its speed limit?

  

The debate over artificial intelligence, a technology that could become either humanity's greatest tool or its greatest weapon, is intensifying. In recent months, a series of AI incidents involving U.S.-based giants in the sector has raised concerns that humans are losing control of the new tech. Speaking in Sydney on Tuesday, OpenAI's chief strategy officer acknowledged that the company had not responded adequately to an unauthorized attempt by its AI to access Australian government systems. Leaders at OpenAI and Anthropic have also begun arguing that the pace of AI development should be slowed to ensure safety. For more on whether AI development can, in fact, be slowed down, check out Nikkei Asia's Tech Latest podcast.

What sets the AI revolution apart from previous big waves of tech innovation is how rapidly it's evolving. Technologies that transformed the world, such as personal computers, the internet and smartphones, took at least more than a decade for their benefits to reach people across Asia and the rest of the globe. Generative AI, by contrast, has spread worldwide in less than four years since ChatGPT debuted in November 2022. Moreover, AI continues to advance at a super-fast pace, to the point where even developers on the front lines are struggling to maintain control.

Given the apparent out-of-control pace, it's not surprising that governments around the world are struggling to keep up with how to regulate it. As Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently argued in a blog post, AI development needs to slow down.

Yet hitting the brakes on the burning-hot AI race is extremely difficult. While calls for restraint are gaining traction among U.S. tech leaders, Chinese AI companies keep releasing increasingly sophisticated models. Since AI is rapidly becoming a foundational technology for military applications, slowing its development could also alter the power balance between the U.S. and China.

Concerns are growing over the enormous electricity and water consumption of AI infrastructure. Citizens worldwide have launched campaigns against new data center projects, and public opposition is growing louder. Data center regulation has also emerged as a key election issue ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.

 Meanwhile, major tech companies across Asia, such as Taiwanese chip giant TSMC and South Korea's Samsung Electronics, remain optimistic about the AI investment boom. On Wednesday, the CEO of Australian data center operator AirTrunk told Nikkei Asia that the company plans to triple its total data center investment in Japan.

Today, the AI boom is the single biggest driver of the global economy. If concerns about its sustainability continue to spread and trigger a market correction, many Asian companies and investors could face significant risks. The question is whether the AI boom -- fueled by astronomical amounts of risk capital and expanding at a pace unlike anything humanity has experienced before -- can land softly.

北京被曝狂砍APEC议程 习健康疑云再起

Chinese President Xi Jinping Was Hospitalised In 2021 Due To Cerebral Aneurysm | World News - News18

据英国《金融时报》10月7日报道,中共计划大幅缩减今年11月在深圳主办的APEC峰会议程,引发不少成员国反弹。

6名知情人士透露,北京提议把最关键的外交与贸易部长级会议改成线上视频;另有5名消息人士说,北京还想取消传统上让各国领导人自由交流的闭门会议。照这个方案,实体领导人峰会可能只剩一场晚宴加一场全体会议。消息人士称,改线上的计划"已有95%确定"。

部长级会议向来是APEC的核心,比照本宣科的领导人峰会更能谈出细节。与会代表担心,北京是想"全盘操弄"这场活动,一边借主场展示国家实力、给自己贴上"多边主义领头人"的标签,一边压缩议程,减少实质讨论和"尴尬场面"。有人直言,这是在"损害APEC精神"。APEC也是少数台湾能以正式成员身份参与的重要国际组织之一。

时政评论员章天亮说,已经有国家连续三个月表示反对,北京仍坚持不改。

Is Xi Jinping Unwell? Unusual Rest Arrangements During His US Visit Spark  Fresh Health Buzz - YouTube这番调整,也让外界又想起习近平的身体。《华尔街日报》此前披露,习9月访美时,中共方面要求在白宫设私人休息室,取消和川普的工作午餐,预留约五小时休息时间。章天亮质疑,北京是不是在有意减少习参加冗长、难以预料的外交场合,不想在各国元首面前大范围暴露健康问题。

APEC秘书处执行长佩德罗萨只说,近期区域会议排得很紧,但仍预期出席率会很高。川普已确认出席深圳峰会,克宫也称川普、普京、习近平三方会晤的构想已经成形。中共外交部至今没有解释为何要改。

Rumors Online] - Xi has is suffering from a stroke : r/China评论员王笃然点评:主办一场国际峰会,却把最需要真谈的部长会议搬到线上,把领导人自由交流的场合整个砍掉,北京要的显然是一台可控的大戏。中共向来习惯把会议开成宣传片,台下不能有意外,台上不能有杂音。再联想到习访美时的休息室和五小时空档,这份议程表,更像是为一个人的体力量身定做的。

王笃然总结: 别人开APEC是来谈事的,中共开APEC,是来拍照的。

Thursday, October 8, 2026

俄罗斯鼠疫会引发一场全球疫情吗?

 俄罗斯鼠疫全球关注!传染性极高飞沫传播潜伏仅4天 专家教3大预防措施

俄罗斯鼠疫会引发一场全球疫情吗?

 一名俄罗斯实验室技术员在西伯利亚一处鼠疫研究中心身亡,但肺鼠疫通常很容易被控制,原因有很多。

场景听起来或许有些似曾相识。

上周五,西伯利亚一名女子因“原因未明”的肺炎死亡,她此前可能曾接触鼠疫。俄罗斯媒体报道,近200人被隔离。官员迅速出面打消疑虑,但网上的揣测与恐慌仍在蔓延。

发生研究人员病逝的俄罗斯鼠疫研究中心这名28岁女子名叫达莉亚·希皮洛娃(Darya Shipilova),任职于西伯利亚伊尔库茨克(Irkutsk)地区的防疫研究所。
俄罗斯女研究员打碎鼠疫杆菌试管,7天后因不明肺炎死亡引发全球关注_中华网
未经证实的消息指,她出现类似肺炎的症状,可能是在打破一支装有鼠疫菌的试管之后,也可能是在前往与蒙古接壤的布里亚特(Buryatia)地区野外考察之后。在这一地区的野生动物之间,鼠疫属于地方性流行病。

截至发稿时,希皮洛娃的死因尚未得到官方确认,据报实验室检测仍在进行。但有一点很清楚:专家认为,这起个案不太可能演变成全球疫情。原因如下。

鼠疫由鼠疫耶尔森氏菌(Yersinia pestis)引起。临床上分为三种:腺鼠疫、肺鼠疫和败血型鼠疫。

腺鼠疫(bubonic plague)最常见,经受感染跳蚤叮咬传播。细菌进入人体后会转移到淋巴结,在腹股沟、颈部和腋下形成称为“横痃”(buboes)的疼痛肿块。腺鼠疫很少出现人传人,但细菌可进入血液,造成败血型鼠疫;也可能进入肺部,引发肺鼠疫。
历史文件

图像加注文字,14世纪的欧洲黑死病大流行,共有2500万人死亡。


与其他类型不同,肺鼠疫可通过患者咳嗽或打喷嚏时释放到空气中的微小飞沫在人与人之间传播。肺鼠疫若不及早治疗通常致命,从接触到出现症状最短只需24小时。

14世纪由腺鼠疫和肺鼠疫引起的黑死病,在欧洲造成超过2500万人死亡,人口减少三分之一至三分之二。当时新开通的贸易路线,以及通过船运进口谷物、面粉等货物,为疫情蔓延提供了条件。

然而,现代环境要不利于鼠疫的传播得多。

首先,耶尔森氏菌引起的肺鼠疫如果得不到治疗,几乎总是致命的;但如今,用简单且广泛易得的抗生素就可以治愈。

“我们有两种治疗方法,对腺鼠疫非常有效,”牛津大学(University of Oxford)研究与贫困相关传染病的教授皮耶罗·奥利亚罗(Piero Olliaro)说。
地图:疑似泄漏鼠疫的俄罗斯西伯利亚研究所位置 

地图:疑似泄漏鼠疫的俄罗斯西伯利亚研究所位置

 
生物恐怖威胁?

包括美国疾病管制与预防中心(CDC)在内的卫生机关,已有应对鼠疫遭蓄意释放的计画,包括追踪接触者、向医院提供指引,以及调配医疗物资。

虽然风险被视为偏低,但鼠疫过去确曾被用作武器。

譬如,有传闻指14世纪曾把感染者的尸体投向敌方;第二次世界大战期间,日本军方也曾向中国平民投放受感染跳蚤。

2025年,奥利亚罗与同事在马达加斯加发表了史上第一个腺鼠疫治疗的随机对照试验。结果显示,口服环丙沙星(ciprofloxacin)与注射用氨基糖苷类(aminoglycoside)抗生素的疗效分别达91%与92%。

此外,即使在少数病情进展为肺鼠疫的个案中,迅速治疗后仍有85%的人好转并存活。

另一个不太可能出现鼠疫大流行的原因是:与新冠病毒不同,肺鼠疫要等到症状出现后才能传播,通常在24小时内。症状严重且明显,因此后续个案可在传播发生前被迅速辨识、隔离并治疗。

英国伯明翰大学病毒免疫学副教授扎妮娅·斯塔马塔基(Zania Stamataki)解释:“这不是那种会被漏掉的病,不会出现有人带着病上飞机、到处旅行,然后各地冒出新感染的情况。”

她说,染疫后的身体情况会很快就变得很明显。

据世界卫生组织(WHO),此次俄罗斯患者的所有接触者据报均已找出并接受监测,目前无人出现症状。这与美国CDC的公共卫生建议一致:找出被视为有风险的人,以便监测、筛检、隔离并给予抗生素。

世卫组织发言人克里斯蒂安·林德迈尔(Christian Lindmeier)在本周二公布初步风险评估。他告诉媒体称相关风险“对伊尔库茨克属中低,对俄罗斯联邦整体属低,对世卫欧洲区域则非常低”。

一般而言,实验室环境中的传播极为罕见,因为通常有严密程序防止意外暴露。斯塔马塔基说:“这些是非常专门的实验室,有一层又一层的防护。”

例如,研究人员会穿戴全套个人防护装备,样本也只在生物安全柜内处理。

这些安全柜维持负压,气流由外向内、远离操作者。她告诉BBC:“如果试管破了,也是在柜内破裂,操作者会受到保护。”

即使运送试管,试管也会放在第二层密封容器内。她又强调,技术人员在这类实验室工作前,都经过严格训练。

此外,14世纪鼠疫在欧洲之所以迅速蔓延,主因之一是当时普遍恶劣的生活条件。

垃圾与食物残渣散落街头,成为携带病媒跳蚤的黑鼠理想栖地。当时人们居住极度拥挤,商人则在狭窄船舱里待上数月。如今,对世界上大部分地区而言,这些条件已不复存在。

尽管如此,仍必须说明鼠疫并非只存在于历史。

当下非洲、亚洲、南美洲,甚至美国的啮齿类族群中,鼠疫仍属地方性流行病。

而且,每年也有人类病例。

以美国为例,平均每年通报约7例人类鼠疫。世界某些地区,偶而也会出现肺鼠疫人传人的局部疫情。

2017年马达加斯加疫情造成2417例鼠疫、209人死亡。但,奥利亚罗指出,疫情最终结束,正说明鼠疫爆发多半局限于一地,通常不会演变成大流行。

不过,鼠疫不太可能真正全球扩散,并不代表我们不该投入治疗与预防。

奥利亚罗教授告诉:“它在全球尺度上也许影响不了很多人,但仍会造成痛苦。这是一种重要的疾病,我们不该忘记鼠疫仍然存在。”