德国应对俄罗斯侵犯

应对潜在危机 德百辆封存坦克投入现役

今年10月参加演习的德国豹2式坦克。 
 
德国计划将封存的100辆坦克投入使用，重新加入 现役。此举被广泛视为对乌克兰危机引发与俄罗斯紧张关系做出反应。

随着冷战的结束，以及不断削减国防预算，这些坦克被出售给军工企业封存。
德国国防部说，将耗资2200万欧元（2400万美元）将现役坦克总数增加到328辆。
北约各成员今年2月达成协议，将建立一支快速反应部队，应对乌克兰危机以及伊斯兰极端势力构成的挑战。

北约各成员国国防部长还同意使该组织的快速反应部队增加一倍。

这些举动显示，北约认为俄罗斯兼并克里米亚半岛以及俄罗斯军队进入乌克兰东部地区并非是一场暂时的危机。

德国国防部发言人弗洛斯多夫证实了明镜周刊的报道，并披露将从国防工业调回100辆豹2式坦克。

弗洛斯多夫还说，为了要达到灵活快速反应的新目标，德国必须确保军队能够配备所需装备，在短时间内抵达预定地点。

2017年，这些坦克将进行升级改造。

4年前，德国决定将国防军的坦克数量从350辆减少到225辆。

Poland Expects A Russian Invasion Soon

Poland is building a series of watchtowers along its border with Russia

Kacper Pempel/Reuters

A member of Poland’s 1st Mechanized Battalion of the 7th Coastal Defence Brigade looks through binoculars as he takes part in a military exercise with the U.S. 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division near Drawsko-Pomorskie November 13, 2014.

Poland is so concerned over the possibility of Russian aggression that it has decided to beef up its security systems along its border with Russia, Newsweek reports citing the Polish press. 

Warsaw has proposed a project that would construct a series of six 24-hour surveillance watch towers along Poland’s border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The towers will stand between 115 and 164 feet tall and will be spaced along the entirety of the 124 mile-long border between the two nations. 

The project is expected to be completed by June. 

The watchtower construction proposal comes amid growing concerns within Poland that Russia may attempt to destabilize eastern Europe, similar to how it’s projected itself into Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Poland’s fears of Russian agression stem both from the country’s previous experience as a Soviet satellite state as well as its geographic realities. 

In the east, Poland borders Ukraine and Russian ally Belarus, while Kaliningrad sits along Poland’s northeastern frontier.

Russia has made Kaliningrad a focus of a new military doctrine announced last year. Since at least 2012, short-range ballistic missiles have been deployed in Kaliningrad while Russia moved nuclear-capable Iskander missiles into the region in March. The territory also hosts the Russian Baltic Fleet as well as the Chernyakhovsk and Donskoye air bases. 

Kaliningrad is a seaport city and the administrative center of Kaliningrad Oblast, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. 

The twin air bases have enabled Russia to conduct a series of provocative incursions into NATO airspace ever since the start of the Ukraine crisis. Russian spy planes, fighters, and bombers have flown in and out of Kaliningrad before being intercepted by NATO’s Baltic air-policing mission. 

The proximity to Kaliningrad and Ukraine has also raised concern that Russia could launch a hybrid warfare campaign within Poland. Polish general Stanisław Koziej, the head of the president’s National Security Bureau, has previously warned that Russia could pursue a policy of subversion and propaganda aimed at destabilizing the country. 
In October 2014, Poland arrested two individuals suspected of spying for Russia’s military intelligence service (GRU). One of the suspects was a Polish army officer and the other was a dual-national attorney in Warsaw. The two spies are thought to be part of a network of at least a dozen GRU operatives collecting intelligence within Poland. 

Poland has responded to growing Russian assertiveness by taking a greater lead within NATO. It’s expanded its military budget, with Warsaw pledging to spend 2% of its GDP on defense by 2016 in accordance with NATO spending goals.

 

伟大祖国欺善怕惡 为什么不要求俄罗斯归还失地 ?

按照苏联1933年提出并和多个国家签订的伦敦侵略定义公约标准，斯大林独裁统治下的苏联在抗战时期对中国唐努乌梁海、外蒙古、新疆和 东北都曾进行过大规模武装入侵，1944年更是非法吞并中国唐努乌梁海17万平方公里国土至今未归还。

中国清代与现代地图比较（红色为苏联掠夺走的土地）

斯大林独裁统治下的苏联在抗战时期对中国唐努乌梁海、外蒙古、新疆和东北都曾进行过大规模武装入侵，1944年更是非法吞并中国唐努乌梁海 17万平方公里国土至今未归还。

──纪念抗日战争胜利暨中国惨败于苏联侵华70周年

摘要：按照苏联1933年提出并和多个国家签订的伦敦侵略定义公约标准，斯大林独裁统治下的苏联在抗战时期对中国唐努乌梁海、外蒙古、新疆和 东北都曾进行过大规模武装入侵，1944年更是非法吞并中国唐努乌梁海17万平方公里国土至今未归还。抗战时期，中国军民付出巨大牺牲牵制日 军大部分军力，苏联得以从远东抽调大批军队参加对德作战，有力地支持了苏联卫国战争。但苏联却恩将仇报，不但背信弃义与日本签订苏日中立条 约，成为日本侵华最大帮凶，还对中国趁火打劫，侵略中国新疆，吞并唐努乌梁海，非法出兵东北掠夺大量财富，迫使中国在日本投降前一日签订丧权 辱国的不平等条约《中苏友好同盟条约》，致使中国承认外蒙独立，让给苏联大量东北特权，苏联侵华给中国造成巨大灾难和损失，中国作为二战战胜 国却丧失173万平方公里国土和大量权益。为避免重蹈覆辙，中俄应拿出智慧和勇气正确对待抗战时期苏联侵华获胜的历史，建立真正健康平等的中 俄关系。

一个被掩盖了数十年的历史事实是：抗日战争时期，不但有日本全面侵华，还有斯大林领导下的苏联大规模侵华，结局是日本侵华战败投降，付出惨重 代价，受到了应有的惩罚，连五十年前从满清政府割占的台湾都归还给中国，苏联侵华则大获全胜，迫使中国签订丧权辱国的不平等条约，以很小代价 从中国获得巨大利益和大片领土，致使作为二战胜利国的中国遭受惨重损失，贻害至今，这是近现代中国被掩盖的一大国耻。最明显的是中国因苏联侵 华丧失唐努乌梁海和外蒙古，共计约173万平方公里国土，其中唐努乌梁海17万平方公里土地1944年被非法划为苏联领土至今未归还中国，是 中国几百年来最大一起因外国侵略导致的国家分裂和国土被非法吞并事件。

俄国和苏联对中国的侵略扩张，是近现代中国苦难、落后和耻辱的最大外因。中国前领导人邓小平曾说过：“欺负中国的列强得利最大的是沙俄，以后 延续到苏联，沙俄通过不平等条约侵占中国的土地，超过150万平方公里。”“中苏关系真正的实质问题是不平等，中国人感到屈辱。”

长期以来，中国主流媒介一直对抗战时期苏联侵华这一重大历史事件讳莫如深，采取掩盖、回避或淡化态度，即使提及也不使用“侵略”字眼，不捅破 这层窗户纸，对苏联支援中国抗战的作用则刻意夸大，这种行为极不正常，正是主流媒体大力批判的所谓“历史虚无主义”，其恶果尚未完全显现。二 战与抗战结束已有七十周年之久，中国应该拿出智慧和勇气，正视这段的历史，避免重蹈历史覆辙。

(一)抗战时期苏联侵华背景和过程概述

中国共产党创始人陈独秀曾指出：苏俄是德意法西斯的老师。随着历史真相的逐步暴露，越来越多历史学者认为：斯大林领导下的苏联无论从内政还是 外交上，都属于与纳粹德国类似的法西斯国家，是挑起二战的侵略者。苏联当权者在国内奉行残酷的专制独裁政策，大清洗、大饥荒和大镇压导致数以 千万计的苏联人非正常死亡，残酷程度远远超过德意日这样的典型法西斯国家。当今欧洲多个国家将斯大林主义与纳粹主义并列予以批判，并设立受难 者纪念日。波罗的海三国和波兰等国曾要求苏联就二战侵略罪行道歉赔偿。虽然纳粹德国和苏联在携手侵略他国，挑起二战后，又因内讧大打出手，苏 联人民为打败德国法西斯立下了大功，也付出了巨大牺牲，但这些功劳和代价掩盖不了斯大林为首的苏联法西斯侵略者罪行。

苏联在二战时期的侵略扩张行为包括在1939年8月23日与纳粹德国签订苏德互不侵犯条约，并在9月先后共同侵略瓜分波兰，制造卡廷森林惨案 嫁祸纳粹德国。二战初期苏联开辟所谓的东方战线，侵略芬兰并割占芬兰领土，完全侵占吞并波罗的海三国，割占罗马尼亚等国领土，苏联还曾试图建 立瓜分世界的德意日苏四国联盟。后来苏德因内讧成为敌人，苏联被迫加入反法西斯阵营。丘吉尔谈到为何与苏联结盟时说：如果希特勒进攻地狱，我 将与魔鬼结盟。战争中，苏军犯下大量令人发指的大规模战争罪行，如强奸数以百万计德国、波兰等国妇女。

二战后，苏联的侵略罪行不但没有受到清算，反而从包括中国在内的多个国家夺得大片领土，共计面积约72万平方公里，还迫使蒙古和东欧诸国成为 被苏联控制的附庸国。苏联二战后继续奉行对内专制，对外侵略扩张的政策，穷兵黩武，先后入侵捷克，匈牙利，阿富汗等国，制造了世界最大的核武 库，最终苏联因为自身的严重缺陷和世界抗苏斗争而自行解体，被迫为世界和平做出了巨大贡献。

近现代史上，中国从未侵略俄国和日本，但中国北方长期在俄国和日本争夺和控制之下，沙俄侵略中国比日本更早，获利更多。19世纪沙俄通过不平 等条约割占中国至少150多万平方公里国土，1900年侵占东北，制造海兰泡与江东六十四屯大屠杀，并霸占江东六十四屯数千平方公里土地至 今。十月革命后，苏俄政府曾发表对华宣言，称放弃沙俄从中国掠夺的一切利益，但后来不再认账。苏联事实上完全保留了沙俄大国沙文主义的侵略传 统，不但继承了沙俄从中国掠夺的百万平方公里土地和大量权益，还继续在中国的唐努乌梁海和外蒙古非法驻军占领。抗战时期，中国北方被日俄侵略 肢解成三个所谓的独立国家：日本控制的伪满洲国、苏联控制的外蒙古和唐努乌梁海。1929年，中东路战争爆发，苏联大规模侵入中国东北，强占 黑瞎子岛等中国领土。

1944年苏联直接吞并中国唐努乌梁海，并出兵侵略新疆，又与美英背着中国签订严重损害中国利益的雅尔塔协定，在日本败局已定，没有获得中国 允许的情况下匆忙非法出兵占领东北，迫使中国政府签订丧权辱国的不平等条约《中苏友好同盟条约》，导致外蒙古成为事实上的苏联殖民地，苏联获 得租借旅顺军港，大连港国际化，中东铁路和南满铁路由中苏合营等特权。苏军还在东北大肆强奸妇女，掠夺财富，战后又违背条约推迟退兵，阻碍政 府接收东北，激起大规模反苏运动。

(二)中国抗日战争牵制日军主力，为苏联卫国战争的胜利做出巨大贡献

日本长期存在北进战略计划，想称霸东亚，自然会将同样企图控制东亚的苏俄视为重大威胁，苏联同样也将日本视为重大威胁，因此在远东驻守重兵防 御日本，一贯的战略方针就是利用中国抗战牵制日军，使日军主力陷入中国战场的泥沼，牵制日本不进攻苏联远东与西伯利亚地区，避免陷入东西两线 作战。

抗战初期苏联为了使中国在远东拖住日军不进攻苏联，对中国抗战给予援助，1937年8月抗战刚爆发就与中国签订了《中苏互不侵犯条约》，但后 来又背信弃义，在中国抗战最艰苦的1941年与日本签订《苏日中立条约》，承认满洲独立，断绝对中国的援助，中国政府很快向苏联表示严重抗 议。苏联还将北满铁路低价卖给日本。苏联的所作所为最终使日本放弃北进战略，大大加强南下侵华力度，使中国抗战雪上加霜，濒临绝境。

中国军民在抗战中浴血奋战，付出了极其惨重的代价，使得日本短时间灭亡中国的计划破产，主要兵力陷入中国战场的泥潭无法抽身，无法集中兵力进 攻苏联，打乱了日本北进战略，最终从积极北进发展到消极北进，最后放弃北进全力南进，大规模侵略中国和东南亚。

甚至在德军兵临莫斯科城下，苏联最危急的时刻，日本还是违背与德国的约定，拒绝了德国提出的从远东夹击苏联的要求。正是斯大林获得间谍左尔格 关于日军无力北进的战略情报后，才把数十万准备用来对付日本的军队从东线调往西线，使苏联得以集中力量对德作战，关键时刻对苏联卫国战争的胜 利发挥了巨大作用，否则历史将改写。

左尔格战后因上述情报获得苏联英雄和金星勋章，苏军元帅朱可夫说：甚至在我们最艰苦的战争年代里，日本也没有进攻苏联，却把中国淹没在血泊 里，稍微尊重客观事实的人都不能不考虑这一明显而无可争辩的事实。

因此，中国不但从未侵略苏联和俄国，即使在苏联长期侵占中国外蒙和唐努乌梁海的情况下，还对苏联雪中送炭，中国军民浴血抗战拖住日军主力，付 出巨大牺牲换来了苏联东线的安全，极大地促进了苏联卫国战争获得胜利，苏联却对中国恩将仇报，趁火打劫，不但背信弃义成日本侵华的最大帮凶， 还对中国进行变本加厉的侵略扩张，给中国带来了空前的灾难和损失。

(三)国际法关于侵略的定义

广义的侵略指的是对他国领土，主权的侵犯，以及进行经济掠夺和文化奴役等行为，狭义指对他国的武装侵犯，是帝国主义，霸权主义的本性，是最严 重的国际罪行。

1933年7月苏联提出并波兰、罗马尼亚、阿富汗、土耳其等国家在伦敦签订的侵略定义公约认为：在国际冲突中，首先采取下列行为之一者，将被 视为侵略国：一，向他国宣战，二，不论是否宣战，以武装部队侵入他国领土，三，不论是否宣战，以陆海空军进攻他国领土船舶或航空器，四，对他 国的海岸或港口进行海军封锁，五，在其本国领土内组成而侵入他国领土的武装匪徒给予支持，或不顾被侵略国家的要求，拒不在其本国领土内采取一 切力所能及的步骤，以对这些武装匪徒剥夺一切援助和保护。公约还规定，不论政治军事和经济上或任何其他考虑，均不得作为侵略行为的借口

1974年12月联合国大会通过关于侵略定义的决议中，比上述公约增加了部分内容： E一个国家违反其与另一个国家订立的协定所规定的条件，使用其根据协定在接受国领土内驻扎的武装部队，或在协定终止后，延长该项武装部队在该国领土内的驻 扎期间。F一个国家以其领土供另一个国家使用，让该国用来对第三国进行侵略行为。G一个国家或其名义派遣武装小队，武装团体非正规军或雇佣 军，对另一个国家进行武力行为，其严重性相当于上述所列各项行为，或该国实际卷入了这些行为。

2010年6月，罗马规约修正决议对侵略罪的定义与联合国大会确定的侵略定义大致相同，增加了一点，将使用武力对另一国的领土或部分领土实施 兼并的行为也定义为侵略。

殖民地的定义：由宗主国统治，没有政治，经济军事和外交方面的独立权利，完全受宗主国控制的地区。广义的殖民地还包括虽然拥有行政机关，军队 和国家机构，但经济军事外交等一方面或多方面被别国控制的半殖民地和保护国。

即使是将1933年苏联提出的侵略定义与苏联出兵吞并唐努乌梁海，武装占领并主导外蒙独立，大规模出兵新疆东北作战等行为相比较，可以发现苏 联的上述是典型的侵略，独立后的外蒙古实为苏联殖民地。以下对苏联的几项重大侵略行为作简要论述。

(四)抗战时期苏联对中国的大规模侵略

1，非法侵占吞并唐努乌梁海

苏联对中国最恶劣的侵略行为是1944年非法将中国唐努乌梁海17万平方公里土地划为苏联一个自治区域，严重践踏中国领土主权和国际法，连日 本侵华时期也不曾明目张胆地将中国大片领土划为日本领土。

唐努乌梁海是中国最北部一个盆地，面积和广东省差不多，主体部分是现在的俄罗斯联邦图瓦自治共和国，风景优美，物产丰富，很多地方类似新疆喀 纳斯湖景区。1727年中俄布连斯奇条约等明确规定唐努乌梁海北部的萨彦岭以南属于清朝领土，1864年《中俄勘分西北界约记》签订，唐努乌 梁海西北部阿穆哈河一带被割让给俄国。

清末，大量俄国移民进入唐努乌梁海定居，1911年沙俄策动外蒙独立后，1914年6月又派遣大量军队侵入唐努乌梁海，以保护的名义将其变成 殖民地，1919年唐努乌梁海与外蒙古一道，被北洋军队收复，1921年俄白军进入唐努乌梁海，杀害当地的中国官员，中国商户被抢劫后驱逐出 境，不久苏俄红军开进唐肃清白军后，不顾中国政府抗议，不肯退兵，当年底，苏俄扶植成立唐努图瓦共和国傀儡政权，在国际上仅有苏联承认，颁布 的宪法明确表示唐努图瓦共和国处在苏俄保护下，苏俄对唐努乌梁海实行军事、经济、政治、文化等全方面的殖民统治，蒙古文被停止使用。1941 年苏德战争爆发后，苏联未通知中国，指示图瓦派兵参加苏联卫国战争。

1944年8月，图瓦小呼啦尔议会通过一个决议，请求苏联接纳唐努乌梁海加入苏联，10月11日，苏联最高苏维埃接受请求，将中国唐努乌梁海 17万平方公里土地划为俄罗斯苏维埃共和国领土，变成苏俄的一个自治区域，但苏联未对外公布这一消息。这种没有任何法理依据的吞并行为是对中 国领土主权的严重侵略，即使日本侵华也只是扶植傀儡政权，行殖民统治之实，不敢明目张胆将其划入日本版图，当年日本割占台湾也有不平等条约为 依据。1948年5月7日，中国政府就苏联吞并唐努乌梁海事向苏联政府提出严重抗议，声明保留一切权利。

外蒙古不包括唐努乌梁海，抗战结束后民国政府迫于苏联的压力，一度承认外蒙独立，但并不包括唐努乌梁海，在法理上中国政府从未承认苏联对唐努 乌梁海的非法吞并，也没有承认唐努乌梁海属于外蒙古或独立，况且1953年民国立法机构不再承认外蒙独立。

2，苏联直接出兵与支持分裂武装，大规模侵略新疆

苏联在抗战期间对新疆进行大规模渗透和控制，直接出兵和通过其大力支持的分裂分子进入新疆攻打中国军队和政府，迫使中国签订不平等条约，是典 型的侵略行为

苏联三十年代先是支持亲苏共的盛世才夺取了新疆政权，直接派大批苏联红军进入新疆作战，赶走马和张两大竞争者，1937年，南疆发生战乱，苏 军应盛世才要求，进入新疆作战，1938年苏军入驻哈密，控制了南疆东西大门。盛世才靠苏联成为新疆王之后，亲苏成为主要政策，大量苏联专家 进入新疆协助，苏联对新疆进行政治、军事、经济、文化全方位渗透，盛世才曾两次向苏联要求将新疆划为苏联领土。四十年代，纳粹德国进攻苏联， 盛世才转向投靠国民党中央政府，迫使苏军和专家撤出新疆，不甘心退出新疆的苏联当局开始策划侵略和分裂中国，在新疆鼓动分裂和武装斗争舆论， 并在境外组织培训武装人员，支持新疆分裂武装准备暴动。

1944年11月7日苏联国庆日这天，苏联支持的分裂分子在新疆制造伊宁事变，同时大批未穿军装的苏军及从苏联运来的火炮、军机非法潜入新疆 境内，与分裂武装一道进攻中国守军，期间分裂武装屠杀大量中国人。11月12日，分裂分子建立所谓东突厥斯坦共和国，苏联给予大力支 持，1945年6月，苏共中央政治局作出决议，派遣500名红军军官和2000名红军士兵入侵新疆支持分裂武装，所谓的三区革命得到苏联在政 治军事经济，从物质到精神的全面支持，新疆险些成为被苏联控制的殖民地，直到1946年事件才逐渐平息，但是新疆已经埋下东突分裂势力的种 子，后患无穷。

苏联对新疆的侵略占领与苏军非法出兵占领东北一起，成为迫使中国政府承认外蒙古独立和给予苏联东北特权的交换筹码，苏联对中国的武装占领和侵 略给中国政府造成巨大压力，迫使中国向苏联做出巨大让步，在日本投降前一天签订丧权辱国的不平等条约，接受苏联提出的几乎全部要求。

3，非法出兵东北并违约，实属侵略

苏联对中国抗战支持的最大支持是在日本败局已定的投降前几天匆忙出兵东北歼灭关东军，长期以来苏联出兵东北的功劳被夸大，作为中苏并肩作战抗 击日本法西斯的典范。固然不能否定苏联出兵东北对打败日本起到了一定作用，与日军作战的死难苏军也要获得应有的尊重，但这些掩盖不了苏联出兵 东北及后来所作所为的侵略实质。

1931年日本侵占东北后，扶植的傀儡政权伪满洲国没有获得中国和绝大多数国家承认，仍为中国合法领土。苏联出兵东北是美英苏在雅尔塔会议上 背着中国确定的协议，中国没有参加会议，协定未获中国正式同意，中国也也没有允许苏军出兵东北。苏联最终确定出兵东北，是在日本广岛和长崎刚 被原子弹轰炸，败局已定的情况下匆忙作出的决定，当时驻扎东北的日本关东军已是强弩之末，兵力被抽调很多，战斗力大大降低，所以苏军攻打关东 军势如破竹，没有付出太大代价便占领东北全境。

苏联出兵东北对抗战胜利实属锦上添花，苏联以最小代价获得最大利益。苏联出兵占领东北后，东北成为被苏联武力控制的筹码，给中国政府造成极大 压力，非常担心苏军赖着不走，西部还有苏联支持分裂中国的所谓新疆三区革命给中国造成巨大的压力，外蒙古被苏军长期控制，为保住东北和新疆不 被苏联长期侵占，也为了让苏联不支持中共，不干涉中国内政，已经被八年抗战折腾得羸弱不堪的中国政府在日被迫在日本投降前一天签订丧权辱国的 不平等条约《中苏友好同盟条约》，中国对苏联的让步超出雅尔塔协定的范围，允许外蒙古公投独立，苏联重新获得在沙俄时期攫取的中东铁路和旅顺 大连特权。

苏军占领东北后，不像解放者，更像侵略者，大肆抢掠、强奸，东北人对苏军的印象甚至比对日军还坏。日本用十几年时间对东北投入大量人力物力财 力，加上东北人民的辛勤劳动，东北在抗战末期已经建设成一个工业，农业，文化等多方面都比较发达的新兴地区，这些财富理应归中国所有。但苏军 却把中国的财富当做战利品抢走或就地破坏，保守估计，苏军在东北的抢劫给中国造成的损失约为20亿美元，满洲各种设施有百分之四十被运走，百 分之四十被拆卸破坏，只有百分之二十无损失，苏军的抢劫破坏毫不亚于一场大规模侵略战争，美国总统顾问鲍莱称，苏军的行动已将中国工业发展拖 后一个世代。

苏军占领东北后，如同在东欧所做的一样，很快在东北各地重要位置修建苏军纪念碑，为自己歌功颂德，光是黑龙江就有二十多座，长春的苏军纪念碑 更是树在城市的最中心位置，纪念碑造型霸道，许多人认为这是对中国人的侮辱。苏联解体后，东欧及前苏联一些加盟共和国的许多苏军纪念碑被当地 政府和民众拆移、破坏，相比之下，中国的苏军纪念碑是保存得最好的，连埋葬沙俄侵略者的大连沙俄公墓都成了文物保护单位。

抗战结束后，苏联又违反《中苏友好同盟条约》，延迟退兵，阻碍中国政府恢复对东北行使主权，支持中共武器等重大违约行为，1946年春爆发全 国范围的大规模反苏运动。苏联违反条约提供武器给中共，干涉中国内政的行为对内战的爆发和结局起了很大作用。苏联这些违约行为在1952年联 合国大会通过的505号决议中已经得到确定，决议全称是《苏联违反1945年8月14日中苏友好同盟条约及联合国宪章以致威胁中国政治独立与 领土完整及远东和平案》，1953年民国立法机构宣布因苏联违约，《中苏友好同盟条约》作废，至此苏联出兵东北的合法性再次受到否定，苏联出 兵东北和占领东北后的种种行为，严重违反了相关国际法，按照侵略定义，可以定性为对中国的大规模侵略。

Sanctioned Russia is Hurting its Effort To Go To War

The T-50

The Russian military has announced that they will build significantly fewer fifth-generation fighters than previously planned due to the country’s current economic situation, Russia Beyond The Headlines reports citing comments from the Deputy Defense Minister in charge of Armaments Yuri Borisov. 
Russia previously had plans to produce 52 fifth-generation T-50 fighters by 2020. However, these plans have been drastically scaled back. The Kremlin will now only procure 12 of the new jets.
“Given the new economic conditions, the original plans may have to be adjusted,” Borisov said. “It is better to have the PAK FA kept as a reserve, and later move forward, while squeezing everything possible for now out of the 4+ generation fighters.” 

The 4+ generation fighters are aircraft like the Russian Su-30 and Su-34 which generally feature radar and avionics upgrades over older models.

As part of a proposed air force modernization plan, Russia had already introduced 34 Su-30s and 20 Su-34s into its fleet.

The Kremlin had plans for a $130 billion air force modernization effort that was set to last through 2020. The multi-billion dollar initiative was meant to reinforce Russia’s aging military with modern aircraft, the fifth-generation T-50, helicopters, and air defense systems. 

A T-50.

This plan is now in jeopardy. Russia’s economy suffers under sanctions, slumping oil prices, and a weak ruble. However, Borisov has left open the possibility that the Ministry of Defense can change the number of planes for annual purchase at any time. 

The T-50, also known as the Su-50, is being produced by Russian manufacturer Sukhoi. The final version of the T-50 is expected to be introduced by 2016. 

Upon completion, the Kremlin plans on creating a string of Su-50 variants for both export and domestic use.

Russia's New "Super Plane"

Russia wants everyone to think it’s building this absurd and massive super-plane

Russia’s proposed new military transport will be a behemoth of an aircraft — assuming such a plane can even fly, and if Russia is even vaguely serious about actually building it.

According to Kremlin propaganda outfit RT citing design specifications from Russia’s Military-Industrial Commission, the new PAK TA transport will have the improbable ability to achieve supersonic flight while carrying massive payloads. The Kremlin plans on acquiring 80 PAK TAs by 2024. 

The introduction of the PAK TA is in keeping with Moscow’s stated goals of modernizing its air fleet within the next decade. Largely comprised of Soviet-era aircraft, Russia has dedicated $130 billion through 2020 for the modernization of its largely aging air force.  
But until prototypes of the plane are built and begin flying, there is no telling how well the plane will actually perform or if it’s even practical. Russia’s fifth-generation fighter, the T-50, has run into design problems. According to the Indian Air Force, the joint India-Russian variant of the T-50 still has numerous stealth and engine problems even at a late stage in its development. 

And the plane itself is just hugely impractical. A supersonic plane of its size and cargo capacity — an anticipated 200 tons —  could only land on a very long, reinforced runway that may need to be purpose-built for the plane itself. It would necessitate an astonishingly large fuel load which would further limit the number of airports at which the aircraft could take off and land. It would also have an enormous wingspan that would make the plane an easy target for enemy forces.

On a more basic level, who in their right mind would entrust 200 tons of cargo aboard such an outlandish, experimental aircraft?
It will be an astonishing accomplishment if a prototype ever takes the skies — never mind 80 finished planes.

As of now, the aircraft is at most an aspiration for Russia. It may also just be a propaganda ploy meant to highlight the Kremlin’s modernization drive and create the impression that Russia’s military-industrial complex possesses technological capabilities that it doesn’t actually have.

Even if the PAK TA may be crude Kremlin psy-ops, the concept art for the new aircraft is still pretty spectacular. Here’s what Moscow’s claiming about its fanciful super-plane of the distant and probably non-existent future. 

The PAK TA is being developed by Russian aviation company Ilyushin. 

The next-generation carrier is touted as being able to travel at supersonic speeds, carry up to 200 tons of cargo, and have a range of 4,350 miles. 

The PAK TA’s payload capacity is envisioned as being 80 tons more than the US’s largest cargo plane, the C-5 Galaxy.

RT estimates that a fleet of PAK TA’s could carry 400 T-14 Armata heavy tanks. Left unaddressed is why anyone would be careless enough to load 400 tanks into a fleet this ridiculous.

The plane is thought to feature an upper gas turbine, as well as twin electrically powered fans. The back of the plane’s wings will generate vectored thrust — assuming a single one of them is ever built.

Putin Already Lost His Army To The American Imperialists But He Didn't Know It

The Russian army loves Coca-Cola (but don’t tell the Kremlin)

Anti-Western sentiment in Russia sometimes extends to American products, from McDonald’s burgers to Apple computers.
Russian officials also have a propaganda campaign against Coca-Cola. But it doesn’t seem to be working that well. Russian soldiers apparently are deeply fond of Coke and are using it as an unofficial symbol to celebrate the end of their military service.

Thousands of people on the Russian social network Vkontakte are sharing photos of soldiers holding Coca-Cola cans with the word “demob,” short for “demobilization.” It’s unclear if the new “demob” labels are part of a marketing campaign by Coca-Cola targeting Russian soldiers, or if these photos are showing self-printed labels.
Many soldiers are also using their own personal profiles to post photos of themselves with these Coca-Cola cans, both before and after the Kremlin started an anti Coca-Cola campaign.
The Coca-Cola photos are circulating mostly in Vkontakte military groups such as “Army,” which has more than 400,000 members, many of which are young soldiers and reservists.
The American soda company was already under attack from Russian politicians, which accused Coca-Cola of waging an “unhealthy war” against Russian people. The American soda company was also accused of supporting Obama’s sanctions against Russia.

美向波罗的海送巨量武器备战

摆 足架势震慑俄罗

美国开始在波罗的海国家部署3000名携带尖端武器的军人，这些军人将在这些国家驻扎三个月。根据五角大楼的解释，美军驻扎在这里的使命 是为了让波罗的海国家在面对俄罗斯威胁时有安全感。

美国国防部发言人周一说，美军陆军第三步兵师将近750辆车辆和军事装备已从海路运达里加。第一批300名军人也已抵达。在未来几周，总 共3000名美国官兵将驻扎在波罗的海国家。驻扎时间持续90天，5月17日至6月6日，将开始一系列军事演习。

如果说，美军士兵三个月后将返回乔治亚州的驻地，但是他们携带的武器装备将留在波罗的海国家。指挥这支军队的奥克奈尔将军表示，只要对俄 罗斯的威胁起震慑作用，这些设备就一直留在当地。

美军携带的军备主要包括亚伯拉罕坦克、布拉德利履带式装甲战车、直升攻击机以及悍马运输车。



图为北约部队去年在波兰进行俄罗斯入侵波罗的海的模拟训练
美军这次是在“大西洋决心”框架下在波罗的海部署军队的，其宗旨是为了让北约组织成员国面对俄罗斯威胁时得到安全保障。

俄罗斯入侵克里米亚以及俄罗斯对乌克兰东部叛军的支持，使立陶宛、爱沙尼亚以及拉托维亚深感威胁。三国在2004年加入欧盟和北约。

俄罗斯战机近来在波罗的海周边频繁出没，北约担心，莫斯科这是在探测北约的集体防卫能力。北约前秘书长拉斯穆森认为俄罗斯干预波罗的海国 家的可能性极大，俄罗斯要看看北约成员国的团结程度究竟有多高。

2月初，北约决定，在欧洲东部建立由5000军人组成的快速反应部队和六个联合指挥中心，以强化东翼防线，以此回答俄罗斯对乌克兰的“入 侵”。

美国陆军第三步兵师1918年7月在法国马纳河谷抵挡住德军的强大军事反攻，因此得名“马纳磐石”。
 


美军上百辆M1A2主战坦克逼近俄罗斯边境(组图)







3月9日，美国M1A2艾布拉姆斯坦克及M2A3布拉德利装甲车运抵拉脱维亚。
3月9日，美国陆军约120辆M1A2主战坦克、布雷德利战车及M88救援车，运抵俄罗斯邻国拉脱维亚首都。目前，美军正在包括拉脱维 亚、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、波兰等东欧国家进行密集实战军演。这些国家几乎都是俄罗斯的邻国。

Did Putin Do MH370 ?

Here’s the most far-out part of the theory that Russia hijacked Malaysia Airlines MH370

It’s been nearly a year since MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur for a red-eye flight to Beijing on March 8, 2014.

The whole world knows what happened next, but so far, no one knows why the plane still hasn’t been found.

We read aviation expert Jeff Wise’s book, “The Plane That Wasn’t There: Why We Haven’t Found Malaysia Airlines Flight 370,” in which he explains his unorthodox theory about what happened.

In short, he has a theory that Russian President Vladimir Putin stole it.

What’s even more interesting is why Wise has this theory. He says Russia may have been acting out because of US economic sanctions levied against the Kremlin. He begins his rationale by noting what happened after Malaysia asked countries with passengers on board to do background checks on those passengers after the flight disappeared.

    Malaysia had asked each of their home countries to run background checks, and each country had complied, with two exceptions: Russia and the Ukraine.

You might remember Russia and Ukraine were otherwise occupied in early 2014, with eastern Ukraine trying and failing to fend off a separatist movement in Crimea, so it’s easy to understand why the countries may have ignored Malaysia Airlines’ background check request.

But Wise says there’s something telling about Russia’s and Ukraine’s inaction amid the flight’s disappearance – and Kazakhstan’s inaction during the international search effort:

    Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak personally appealed to Kazakhstan’s president, the Soviet-era strongman and Putin ally Nursultan Nazarbayev, to allow Malaysia to set up a search operation in the country. Kazakhstan never responded.

Wise says despite the great deal of international brainpower behind the investigation, no one was able to explain what happened beyond all reasonable doubt.

Here’s the meat of Wise’s theory. He calls MH370 the unfortunate target of a retaliation ploy by Russian leadership — a sinister response to the US economic sanctions against Russia:

    And indeed, the weeks before MH370’ s disappearance saw increasingly critical language from European and American officials in response to Russia’s moves in the Ukraine. Then, on Thursday, March 6, President Obama took punitive action, signing an executive order imposing sanctions against “individuals and entities responsible for activities undermining democratic processes or institutions in Ukraine.” Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, declared that sanctions “would inevitably hit the United States like a boomerang.” The following day, MH370 disappeared.

Taken by itself, all of that seems kind of random, and some may wonder why Russia would make a Malaysian plane vanish just to get back at the US.

However, Wise says there are more signs of Russian involvement — specifically, the shooting-down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, just four months after the first Malaysia flight vanished. Wise says some of the same events preceding the disappearance of MH370 also preceded the downing of MH17:

    On Wednesday, July 16, Obama announced new sanctions against Russia. Putin responded with a public statement warning that sanctions “generally have a boomerang effect,” and added, “I am certain that this is harmful to the U.S. Administration and American people’s long-term strategic national interests.” The next day, at the end of a phone call with Obama, Putin broke the news of the MH17 shoot-down.

The aviation expert seems quite firm in his assertion that the ongoing US sanctions against Russia were the direct cause of Russia’s supposed involvement with the two Malaysia Airlines tragedies. But, if true, it’s anyone’s guess why Russia would target an unwitting Malaysia instead of the US itself. Here’s his rationale for that:

    If I had to guess, however, I would say that perhaps MH370 was a demonstration of prowess, a way to say to the West, “you can hurt us with sanctions, but don’t sleep too soundly at night , because we can hurt you in ways that you can’t even imagine .” MH370 was targeted only because the Russians had figured out a hack that only would work only under very particular circumstances, and MH370 happened to fit them.

Wise says American mainstream media have mostly downplayed this theory.

 

Russia: The car used in Boris Nemtsov’s murder belongs to a ‘in house security service’

People hold flags and posters during a march to commemorate Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov, who was shot dead on Friday night, in central Moscow March 1, 2015. 

Russia’s Finance Ministry says that the car being sought in connection with the murder of Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov belonged to a “in-house security service” for the ministry, according to the Russian news agency TASS.

Nemtsov was shot dead last week in the highest-profile murder during Putin’s 15-year reign.

Because of his status as an opposition leader and former deputy prime minister, many supporters believe that President Vladimir Putin is to blame for Nemtsov’s death. He was also attacked “200 [meters] from the Kremlin walls,” according to one reporter in Moscow.

While the car in question, which reportedly fled the scene of Nemtsov’s murder, didn’t belong to the Finance Ministry directly, the connection to a contractor for the state body raises fresh questions about Kremlin involvement.

The ministry’s press office told TASS: “The Ford car we are talking about does not belong to the Finance Ministry. This is a vehicle of an in-house security service, an independent FSUE providing services to the Finance Ministry, Goznak and other bodies.”

A view shows the covered body of Boris Nemtsov, with St. Basil’s Cathedral (R) and the Kremlin walls (L) seen in the background, in central Moscow February 28, 2015.

Police are investigating Nemtsov’s murder. Russian security services claim they have identified several suspects.

Nemtsov served as a deputy prime minister and a regional governor in Russia in the 1990s, when he helped put free-market reforms in place. Ukraine’s president believes Nemtsov was murdered because he had evidence that Russia armed forces in Ukraine.


The fact that Nemtsov was gunned down right outside the Kremlin and state officials are admitting a connection to the car that fled the scene of the murder is being interpreted by Putin’s critics that no one is safe.

Putin’s press spokesperson, however, has denied that the Kremlin was involved in Nemtsov’s death.

The Russian government has even offered a reward of $50,000 for information leading to the conviction of the killer of Nemtsov. However, Russia might have actually captured the shooting on tape — Nemtsov was killed in front of the Kremlin’s own security cameras.

Russia could burn all its reserves in a year

Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin gestures as he meets with members of the Valdai international discussion group of experts in Krasnogorsk outside Moscow November 11, 2011.

Russia’s foreign currency reserves slipped another $6.4 billion last week as the central bank and the Finance Ministry continues the battle to prop up the ruble. If it continues at that rate, the $368.3 billion it has left will be all but gone by this time next year.
The country’s reserves have fallen over $100 billion from $469.9 billion in June last year as the collapse in global oil prices sent Russia’s currency tumbling. Russia relies on oil and gas revenues for around 10% of GDP and half of federal budget revenues, so when the price falls, so does the economy.

Morgan Stanley estimates that “every $10 fall in the oil price means a $32.4 billion fall in oil and gas exports, which is equivalent to about 1.6% of GDP” and around a $19 billion fall in government budget revenues.

In order to protect the country’s business from the collapse in the value of the ruble, the central bank and the Finance Ministry have been selling dollars and euros and buying up rubles in order to prop up the latter’s price. While this helped to stabilise the currency, the falls have already thrown Russia’s banking sector into crisis and forced the government to cut its budget by 10% this year.

As the Bank of Russia told Russian news service TASS: “The reduction of international reserves for the week by $ 6.4 billion, or 1.7%, is a result of repo transactions in foreign currency and reduced balances on the Russian Finance Ministry and with the Bank of Russia, as well as the negative balance of foreign exchange and market revaluation.”

If the falls continue at around $6 billion a week they will be all but exhausted by this time next year. However, at least one key threshold — sufficient reserves to cover at least six months of imports in case of emergency — has already been breached.
Russia’s former finance minister and current chairman of the Committee of Civil Initiatives Alexei Kudrin wrote a blog in the daily newspaper Kommersant last year, available reserves could barely cover six months of imports at current prices.

“Six months of Russia’s imports are worth approximately half of the current level of international reserves, which are valued at around $454 billion. If we subtract the reserves used to insure the government’s budget, the remaining value of reserves only slightly exceed the amount needed to pay for six months of imports.”

Some analysts say that six months is the critical level to insure the Russian population against the possibility of severe hardship in case the crisis deepens and the Russians are deprived of foreign goods. (Russia imports a large amount of staples including butter, cheese, and meat.) S&P think that this level may already have been breached and indeed reserves are likely to continue to fall for the next few years.

The Russia crisis is not over yet.

Russian snap military drills could turn into assaults on Baltic capitals

Russian soldiers

The Baltic states are becoming increasingly unnerved by the growing number of Russian military drills close to their borders, Damien Sharkov of Newsweek reports,
Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has been staging military drills close to the Baltic regions at an increasingly common pace. 

Martin Hurt, the deputy director of Estonia’s International Centre for Defense and Security, believes that the increased frequency of the drills is meant to lull Europe into a false sense of security as the exercises become increasingly normal. 

“My take would be that the Russian authorities want to raise the readiness of their forces and also make European nations more relaxed to a new norm where the Russian Air Force often conduct snap exercises,” Hurt told Newsweek.

“A realistic scenario against the Baltics would be a ‘normal’ Russian snap exercise that without notice turns into a quick assault on one or several of the Baltic states’ capitals,” Hurt continued. “Such an attack would have greater probability of success than the hybrid scenario we saw in Crimea.” 

A Russian invasion of the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia would either lead to a continent wide war as NATO would be forced to respond to Russia’s attack, or, in the absence of a NATO response, a Russian invasion would shatter the defensive alliance. 

The Telegraph reported on February 20 that General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe and one of Britain’s most senior generals, warned that Russian snap exercises could lead to a possible invasion of NATO territory. 

Bradshaw warned that the drills could be used “not only for intimidation and coercion but potentially to seize NATO territory, after which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity.” 

The Baltics are not alone in fearing the potential of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine. Sweden and Finland, neither of which are members of NATO, are also planning on expanding their defense cooperation against the backdrop of Russian tensions, Reuters reports. 

Aside from snap military drills, Russia has taken to provocative military demonstrations against NATO countries throughout Europe and North America. Most recently, Russian bombers flew close enough to British airspace to necessitate the scrambling of two British Typhoon fighters.  
Newsweek notes that “in the first ten months of 2014, 40 Russian military vessels had been spotted near Latvian waters, compared to only one in 2010.“

The provocations, according to Tom Nichols, a professor at the US Naval War College and a senior associate at the Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs, are “not normal, it is not typical even of Soviet actions during the Cold War … [I]t clearly comes from the very top as an expression of Putin’s foreign policy.”

As a best case scenario, the continuation of Russian provocation and snap military exercises could prove to be nothing more than bluster to distract from Moscow’s activities in Ukraine. At its worst, the provocations and drills could be an ongoing strategy to inure the West to Russian militarism in order to cloak a future invasion of the Baltics. 

Cyprus Selling Out On Friends

Russia is getting military bases in an EU state

A Russian sailor watches amphibious vehicles move during a naval parade rehearsal in the far eastern port of Vladivostok, July 25, 2014.

Cyprus has offered Russia to have air and navy bases on its territory.

Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades announced that the country is ready to host Russian aviation and naval bases. The official agreement on military cooperation between the two nations is expedcted be signed on February 25, 2015, according to Lenta.ru.

“There is an old [defense] agreement, which should be renewed as is. At the same time, some additional services will be provided in the same way as we do with other countries, such as, for example, with France and Germany,” Nicos Anastasiades said. “Cyprus and Russia have traditionally had good relations, and this is not subject to change.”

Cyprus’ announcement comes after Russia expressed interest in having a military base in Cyprus in late January, according to the Global Post and Greek Reporter.

Notably, Cyprus is one of the 28-member states in the EU, which have been imposing sanctions on Russia over the past year in response to the actions in Ukraine. 

And just like Greece has recently caused a stir by complicating the process of extending sanctions on Russia, Cyprus, too, just voiced some opposition to the additional sanctions on Russia, adding that many EU members share that opinion.

“We want to avoid further deterioration of relations between Russia and the European Union,” the Cypriot president reportedly said.

So military cooperation between Cyprus and Russia is yet another red flag for the EU.

Presumably, the Russian Air Force will use the airbase “Andreas Papandreou,” along with the international airport of Paphos in the southwest of the island, approximately 50 kilometers from the air base of the British Royal Air Force “Akrotiri.” Additionally, the Russian navy will be able to permanently use the base of Limassol, according to Lenta.Ru.

“The Limassol port borders on the British air base of Akrotiri which serves NATO operations and is also an important hub in the electronic military surveillance system of the alliance,” according to the Global Post.

Given Russia and Cyprus’ shady economic relationship over the last wo decades (ever since the fall of the USSR), perhaps this isn’t all that surprising.

In 2013, during the Cypriot financial crisis, analysts estimated that over a third of bank deposits in Cyprus may have had Russian origin, and reportedly, many Russian companies are registered on the island. Some reports even went as far as saying that Cyprus has become “a major money laundering machine for Russian criminals” back in 2013.

Even today, Russia’s current economic problems are reportedly further dragging down Cyprus.
“Russia’s presence in the economy has been a huge supporting factor. Its footprint is everywhere from tourism to real estate, so it is worth monitoring the impact,” said Michael Florentiades, chief economist and head of investment research at XM.com, an online financial services company in Limassol.

Naturally, Russia’s heavy-duty financial involvement in a EU state “raised concerns among the island country’s Western allies” over the past few years, according to Euractiv.

 

But the most alarming Russia-Cyprus dalliance came during the height of the Cypriot financial crisis when Cyprus was reportedly negotiating with Russia for a bailout in 2013. The EU was particularly nervous about this because there was speculation that Russia might ask for a naval port and access to the country’s gas reserves in return.

Ultimately, however, Cyprus opted for a “€10 billion bailout agreed with the troika, in return for closing the country’s second largest bank Laiki, and imposing a one-time levy on all uninsured deposits, including those held by foreign citizens.”

On top of all of that, it’s notable that Russia made some major moves in the Mediterranean recently.
In mid-January, Russia announced that it will shift all its natural gas flows to Europe via Turkey, instead of Ukraine.

“Our European partners have been informed of this and now their task is to create the necessary gas transport infrastructure from the Greek and Turkish border,” the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller said in a statement.

Additionally, Russia and Greece’s new government have taken initiatives to explore their military and economic relationship .

In fact, the new Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras even stated in early February: “Greece and Cyprus can become a bridge of peace and cooperation between the EU and Russia.”

So this part of the world could soon become very interesting — and a huge pain for Europe.

America Continues To Torture Putin

 

The Ruble Is Getting Slammed After S&P Cuts Russia To ‘Junk’

The ruble is getting slammed again after S&P cut Russia to junk.

The currency fell over 7% to over 68 to the dollar after the S&P cut Russia’s credit rating to BB+.

All ratings below ‘BBB-’ are considered “junk” as they are below the lowest investment grade rating.

ruble



The ruble’s plunge after the S&P announcement.

And earlier in the day, the ruble closed around 66.3, which was the biggest decline for the ruble in over two weeks.

The currency’s drop earlier today followed the escalation of violence in Ukraine over the weekend in the city of Mariupol.

Over the weekend when Russian-backed rebels launched an assault on the vital Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, killing 30 people and injuring 83. Following the attack, the European Union’s foreign policy chief warned of a further “grave deterioration” in EU-Russian relations.

“It was pure illusion that peace could be achieved now,” Enrique Menendez, a former advertising agency owner who now runs a humanitarian relief operation in eastern Ukraine told The New York Times. “None of the sides has yet achieved its goals. The only real surprise is that the fighting started in the winter instead of the spring.”

“Geopolitics are expected to return to the picture on the escalation in eastern Ukraine and talks in the West about new sanctions against Russia,” Vladimir Miklashevsky, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Helsinki, told Bloomberg by e-mail. “Falling oil and a possible fear premium will weigh on the ruble this week.”

“What we see in Ukraine now is a full-blown war, which is a red light for investors into Russian assets,” Andrey Vashevnik, who manages $25 million as the chief investment officer at R&B Investment Fund Ltd. in Moscow, told Bloomberg. “There’s a strong chance of an S&P downgrade to junk and that would be really painful for Russia in the long run.”

The Kremlin continues to officially maintain it has not provided troops of equipment to the pro-Russia rebels in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Ukraine’s army is a NATO legion whose geopolitical aim is to constrain Russia.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama threatened to step up measures against Russia following the latest episode in Mariupol.



Ruble-USD, 1 year up to today.

Russia Imperialist Is Reinforcing 3 Crucial Geopolitical Frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off on a new military doctrine for the country on Dec. 26 last year.

The new doctrine, beyond explicitly stating that NATO’s expansion was the main external threat facing Moscow, calls for reinforcing three geopolitical fronts that Russia sees as part of its existential security.

In the coming years Russia will focus considerable resources in developing and maintaining a strong military presence in the Arctic, the recently annexed Crimean peninsula, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.

“In 2015, the Defense Ministry’s main efforts will focus on an increase of combat capabilities of the armed forces and increasing the military staff in accordance with military construction plans. Much attention will be given to the groupings in Crimea, Kaliningrad, and the Arctic,” Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov said, according to Russia’s Sputnik news agency.

Each of these three regions is vital for Russia’s goal of checking NATO expansion while simultaneously maintaining access to potential natural resources, as in the case of the Arctic, and warm water shipping routes.

The Arctic


Russian military expansion in the Arctic has been a major goal for Putin for much of the past decade. The new military doctrine officially puts special focus on the region and advocates a greater Russian role in the region to help ensure access to potential energy resources on the Arctic sea bed against possible Danish, Norwegian, Canadian, and US claims.

The US estimates that upwards of 15% of the earth’s remaining oil, 30% of its natural gas, and 20% of its liquefied natural gas are stored in the Arctic sea bed.

Moscow has undertaken a construction blitz across the Arctic in a bid to ensure that it remains the unchallenged military power in the region. Russia is constructing ten Arctic search-and-rescue stations, 16 deepwater ports, 13 airfields, and ten air-defense radar stations across its Arctic coast.

Simultaneously, Moscow has created Joint Strategic Command North (JSCN) from components of the Northern Fleet in order to maintain a permanent military presence in the region. It is likely that this command will become a fifth military district.

According to the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), JSCN will include a naval infantry brigade, an air defense division, an Arctic mechanized brigade, a coastal missile defense system, and missile regiments to outlying archipelagos in the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic Territorial Claims



Military personnel, believed to be Russian servicemen, stand guard outside the territory of a Ukrainian military unit in the village of Perevalnoye outside Simferopol March 4, 2014.

Since annexing Crimea in March, Russia has further militarized the region and entrenched itself into the peninsula. PISM notes that Russia is developing a “rocket-artillery regiment equipped with Khrizantema, Msta, and Tornado-G missile defense systems.” In addition, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which is based in Crimea, is being retrofitted for duty with new ships and better equipment.

General Philip Breedlove, head of the US European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said in November that Moscow has started a military buildup in the peninsula includes cruise and surface-to-air missiles. These systems allow Russia to exert “military influence” in the region.

crimea



In December, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made waves by declaring that since Crimea was part of Russia, Moscow had full rights to deploy nuclear weapons into the region. However, neither Russia nor the US can technically move any strategic nuclear forces without notifying the other without breaking the 2010 New START treaty. Moscow says it might revise its commitment to START.

If Russia continues to feel threatened by NATO, it could be possible that Moscow would move nuclear weapons to Crimea as a deterrent against any perceived aggression. The use of nuclear weapons defensively remains a part of Russia’s new military doctrine.

According to PISM, “Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons can only be used in response to an attack involving a weapon of mass destruction or in the event of aggression of a conventional nature that presents a threat to the country’s existence.”

Kaliningrad


Russia’s third area of focus is the exclave of Kaliningrad. The small piece of territory is wedged between the NATO states of Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea.

During the Cold War, Kaliningrad was heavily militarized as a possible strike position against NATO. The small piece of territory remains a key part of Russia’s ability to bring threaten the West.

Since at least 2012, short range ballistic missiles have been deployed in Kaliningrad. The territory also hosts the Russian Baltic Fleet as well as the Chernyakhovsk and Donskoye air bases.

The twin air bases have played a significant role in Russia’s policy of aggressive aerial incursions into NATO airspace since the start of the Ukraine crisis. Russian spy planes, fighters, and bombers have flown into and out off Kaliningrad before being intercepted by NATO’s Baltic air-policing mission.

There have been unsubstantiated reports that Russia may have moved nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad after the US announced plans, that were later retracted, to build a missile defense shield in Poland. A 2002 Congressional Research Service report released through Wikileaks cited the possible presence of nuclear weapons based in Kaliningrad.

In May, Russia unilaterally suspended an agreement with Lithuania that allowed both countries to inspect each other’s armed forces. The treaty stipulated that as part of efforts to foster mutual trust, Lithuania would be able to have free access to all Russian arms in Kaliningrad once a year in return for Russia’s ability to inspect all of Lithuania’s military forces.

Russia Is Preparing For Another War At The Arctic




An S-400 Triumph air defense missile system

Russia has moved some advanced air defense systems to the Arctic in order to increase the capabilities of the country’s Northern Fleet, according to Russia’s Sputnik News.

“A division of air defense of the Northern Fleet has adopted into service new S-400 Triumph air defense missile systems,” Vadim Serga, the fleet’s spokesperson, said on Friday.

The S-400 is a long-range surface-to-air missile system that can engage a variety of targets, including aircraft, drones, and other missiles. Triumph air defense missile systems can engage targets up to 250 miles away and at a maximum altitude of 18.6 miles.

A total of nine S-400 regiments are expected to be deployed by Russia across the Arctic in the coming months.

The inclusion of heavy aerial defenses in the Arctic coincides with Russia’s push to further militarize three crucial geopolitical frontlines — the Arctic, Crimea, and the exclave of Kaliningrad — as part of a new and ambitious military doctrine.

Military expansion in the Arctic has been a major Russian objective for the better part of the last decade. This special focus on the region is aimed at ensuring access to potential energy resources on the Arctic sea bed while countering anticipated Danish, Norwegian, Canadian, and US claims.

The US estimates that upwards of 15% of the earth’s remaining oil, 30% of its natural gas, and 20% of its liquefied natural gas are stored in the Arctic sea bed.

Arctic Territorial Claims



Moscow has undertaken a construction blitz across the Arctic in order to maintain Russian military superiority in the region. Russia is constructing ten Arctic search-and-rescue stations, 16 deepwater ports, 13 airfields, and ten air-defense radar stations across its vast Arctic coast.

As part of this policy, Russia began moving troops towards a new military installation 31 miles from the Finnish border. As of Jan. 13, 800 out of the proposed 3,000 servicemen had been moved to this new base.

The Return Of Russian Imperialist

 

Russia Is Constructing An Arctic Stronghold 30 Miles From The Finnish Border


Russia has started moving troops towards a new military installation that’s 31 miles from the Finnish border, Damien Sharkov Newsweek reports citing a press statement from Russian admiral Vladimir Korolev.

As of Jan. 13, approximately 800 servicemen from Russia’s Northern Fleet had been stationed in the Russian town of Alakurtti, in the Murmansk region. Alakurtti is due to become one of Russia’s key strongholds in its quest to fortify its position and influence over the Arctic region.

The rest of Russia’s Northern Fleet — which includes 3,000 ground troops trained for combat in Arctic conditions backed by 39 ships and 45 submarines — will be stationed there “soon.”Alakurtti Military Base

Google

Alakurtti Military Base

Finnish news network YLE confirms that Russia has reopened the military base in Alakurtti. The base had previously been shut down in 2009, but was now being retrofitted to fit a garrison of 3,000 radioelectronics experts.

Russia’s drive to militarize the Arctic is in keeping with the country’s new military, which was signed into law on Dec. 26 last year. The new doctrine explicitly states that NATO’s expansion was the main external threat facing Moscow and that Russia should reinforce three key geopolitical fronts.

“In 2015, the Defense Ministry’s main efforts will focus on an increase of combat capabilities of the armed forces and increasing the military staff in accordance with military construction plans. Much attention will be given to the groupings in Crimea, Kaliningrad, and the Arctic,” Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov said, according to Russia’s Sputnik news agency.

Russia VS NATO_07

 

 Aside from relocating personnel to Murmansk, Russia has undertaken a construction blitz across the Arctic in a bid to ensure that it remains the unchallenged military power in the region. Moscow is constructing ten Arctic search-and-rescue stations, 16 deepwater ports, 13 airfields, and ten air-defense radar stations across its Arctic coast.

According to the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Moscow will also create in the Arctic a naval infantry brigade, an air defense division, a mechanized brigade, a coastal missile defense system, and missile regiments in outlying archipelagos in the Arctic Ocean.

Russia’s focus on the Arctic stems from the unclaimed natural resources under the ice. The US estimates that a possible 15% of the earth’s remaining oil, 30% of its natural gas, and 20% of its liquefied natural gas are stored within the Arctic sea bed.

Currently, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada, and the US all have partial claims to the Arctic Circle.

Arctic Territorial Claims