The Swiss National Bank Lost 60 Billion Francs In Currency Chaos

 

That’s a lot of money.

The Swiss National Bank’s policy change today produced one of the largest historical one-day exchange rate moves for any advanced economy. The euro is down about 14.5% against the franc, falling as much as 30% immediately after the news broke. 
It’s driven the value of country’s currency reserves down by 60 billion francs (€58.5 billion, or $68.3 billion), according to Steven Englander at Citi. 

Switzerland’s monetary base has surged since 2011. That’s just the money held by the SNB, people in Switzerland and commercial banks in the country. Since 2011, the SNB has effectively been creating a lot of Swiss francs and buying euros with them. 
This is the action that held Switzerland’s currency so steady over that period, and it’s sent the monetary base surge: 

The value of that has dropped, but it’s a bit of a moot point for them: they create the currency and made the decision, so they were undoubtedly expecting the loss.

Most analysts are expecting the euro to weaken even more, as the European Central Bank is looking extremely likely to start a quantitative easing programme either next week or in March. 
The effort to hold the exchange rate against the euro steady was forcing changes with other currencies: The franc’s value dropped by about 14% against the dollar last year, and the SNB was getting worried about “divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas”.

邪恶的瑞士

瑞郎波动重创外汇经纪商

欧洲一家领先外汇经纪商周一申请破产保护，同时一家丹麦银行承认遭受巨额亏损。英国金融市场行为监管局(Financial Conduct Authority)出面，对上周瑞郎汇率剧烈波动对金融行业造成的破坏进行评估。

据一位知情人士称，英国金融市场行为监管局上周五致信数量不明的外汇经纪商，要求他们报告有关瑞郎波动可能对其资产负债表造成的影响。

上周四，全球市场一片震惊，当时瑞士意外宣布放弃瑞郎对欧元汇率的上限。瑞郎汇 率飙升，全球投行遭遇巨额亏损，外汇经纪商受到的冲击尤其严重，这是现代交易时代最具破坏性的汇率波动之一。

Alpari 成为最大受害者之一，当时最后一刻的挽救努力宣告失败。与此同时，丹麦的Saxo Bank周一被迫承认可能遭受损失。

瑞郎波动的影响让人们加强了对这个轻监管行业的审视。在该行业，公司往往会向客户提供巨额杠杆资金，以吸引 他们交易。伦敦一直是很多券商的交易场所，因为伦敦仍是全球主要外汇交易中心。

客户将资金存入券商，并利用这笔资金作为抵押，借入更大规模资金放大其交易头寸。在伦敦，融资倍数一般是账户存款的100倍至200倍， 不过更高的融资倍数也是存在的。

Batman and Atom battle Evil Swiss Bankers

一些经纪商采用的方法是在短期内弥补客户在其存款之外的亏损，从而让客户加速其 账户的交易。市场的剧烈波动（例如瑞郎上周的波动）意味着，投资价格出现大幅波动，可能导致经纪商立即要求客户追加巨额保证金，而客户可 能无法立即缴付。

Why Argentinian Prosecutor Died

 

    "If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter." ~ George Washington


Argentina: Prosecutor Investigating 1994 Hizbollah Bombing Found Dead Days After Exposing Deals with Iran
Oil and arms deals. via Argentine Prosecutor Investigating Jewish Center Bombing Found Dead
Alberto Nisman, an Argentine prosecutor investigating the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires, was found dead from a gunshot wound in his apartment on Monday, days after he accused Argentine President Cristina Fernandez of secretly negotiating with Iran to avoid punishments for those behind the attack.
The bombing of the Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) in Buenos Aires killed 85 people and injured 300. Iran and Hezbollah have long been suspected of carrying out the attack. In 2013, Nisman, who had been investigating the bombing after Iran and Argentina reached a widely criticized deal to establish a joint “truth commission” to investigate the attack, released an indictment blaming Iran and Hezbollah for the bombing.
Last week, Nisman asked an Argentine judge to call in Fernandez as well as Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman for questioning. Nisman told reporters that he believes the impunity of the Iranians involved in the attack was ordered by Timerman in exchange for securing closer ties with Iran for oil and weapons deals.
“The president and her foreign minister took the criminal decision to fabricate Iran’s innocence to sate Argentina’s commercial, political, and geopolitical interests,” Nisman had said, The Associated Press reported.
As we posted on the intrepid Nisman in 2013, Argentine Indictment Accuses Iran of Terror Plots, Cells in Latin America:

Did Someone In Argentina Ordered Alberto Nisman Killed ?

 

On Monday evening, thousands of Argentines angry over the death of a prosecutor set to testify about Iranian involvement and an alleged government cover-up in a deadly bombing that took place 20 years ago.
Alberto Nisman, who had been investigating the blast at the Buenos Aires AMIA Jewish community center that killed 85 people for the past decade, was found dead just hours before his testimony before government officials.
Nisman was found lifeless in his home Monday, his apartment locked from the inside. Nisman was shot to the head at close range, the gun was lying beside him. Authorities concluded that it must have been a suicide.
Regardless of what it looks like, however, the people of Argentina suspect foul play. Once the of Nisman’s death broker, without missing a beat they took up the slogan coined in France for Charlie Hebdo “Yo Soy Nisman”, “YoSoyAlberto” — “I am Nisman,” “I am Alberto” — took over Instagram and Twitter. It was everywhere in the night-long protests.
In a new 300 page report, Nisman accused President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Foreign Minister Hector Timmerman of covering up Iran’s involvement in the bombing in order to secure trade deals for the country.
The government has said over and over that those allegations are absurd.

Reuters

Monday night Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner broke a deafening day-long silence and released a statement on Nisman’s death.
“Someone’s death always causes loss and pain for those who loved them, consternation for everyone else, she wrote. “Suicide provokes, additionally and in all cases, first: shock, and then: questions. What made this person make the terrible decision to take their life?”
Fernandez went on to talk about her own experience with the Amia case. She stated 2,013 words, and said Nisman’s name only three times.
To the government and its investigators Nisman’s death is a suicide, at least for now. Viviana Fein, the case’s head investigator, said that they’re calling it “suspicious.”

Reuters
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner

There’s just one problem with that: No one believes the official line.
That’s no surprise where inflation statistics are fairly openly manipulated (independant researchers place it around 40%, the government around 20%); and people commonly exchange dollars and pesos in underground currency exchanges;
In a country still reeling from an ugly dictatorship in the 1970s and 1980s where people simply “disappeared” — this murder hits a nerve.
It’s a nerve that can’t be hit by fights with hedge fund managers over debt. It’s a nerve that can’t even be hit by questions about where the President derives her substantial (potentially ill-gotten) wealth. Argentines will not allow this to roll off their shoulders the way they do bare grocery store shelves and rising crime

Reuters
In this photo a woman hangs a sign saying “Cristina, Murderer” — so yeah… A lot of people just don’t believe anything the government says.

Opposition candidates have wasted no time calling for transparency in the investigation into Nisman’s death.
It is likely the government will do whatever they can to be (or appear) transparent. This year’s elections are riding on that. But again — Argentines don’t trust their government right now. The Kirchner regime could turn this investigation inside out and put it on display for the world to see and it might not matter.
The murky death of Alberto Nisman is a psychological breaking point.

官方统计数字以不可靠出名 共产党王朝会或不会被自己造成自我伤害？

 

中国失业大 军构成隐忧

中国也许出现了近四分之一个世纪以来最低的年度增长率，但这个国家的领导层似乎不太担心。

“国民经济在新常态下保持平稳运行，呈现出增长平稳、结构优化、质量提升、民生 改善的良好态势，”中国国家统计局(NBS)局长马建堂周二表示。他公布中国经济去年增长7.4%，这是自1990年以来最慢的增长步 伐。

这种不担心的主要原因是中国的就业创造和工资上涨都在稳步推进，即便经济增速从2012年和2013年7.7%的水平有所放缓。

去年中国创造了1322万就业岗位，而且经济增长放缓迄今是逐渐的。这些情况使 共产党确信，它可以允许增长进一步放缓。

总体就业压力也在减轻，因为中国的劳动年龄人口已经在2011年见顶，预计将在未来几年加快下降——这归因于实行几十年的一胎化政策。

中国的劳动年龄人口去年下降了371万，此前在2013年下降了244万。

不过，中国官方的失业统计数字以不可靠出名，这就带来一个令人担忧的问题：中国高层的镇定是不是受到误导的？

过去五年来，中国的官方失业率一直保持在4.1%不变。

过去13年里，这个数字在4.0%至4.3%的狭窄区间里波动，即便在此期间季度同比GDP增长率最高为14%，最低为6%。

政府自己也承认这个数字是不可信的，并已多年采集自己的内部数据，后者不定期宣布，但没有定期发布。

周二，在回答英国《金融时报》提出的问题时，马建堂表示，根据这些“没有正式发布”的内部数据，中国去年的实际失业率为5.1%。

围绕中国实际失业率的辩论不仅仅是学术性的。

至少自1989年以来，中国高层的首要任务一直是创造足够的就业机会，以维护社会稳定，阻止可能推翻威权政府的群体性事件。

就在2011年，政府还把每年增长8%当作某种近乎神奇的门槛，仿佛达不到这个门槛中国社会就会陷入混乱，共产党王朝就会发生内爆。

由于基数扩大了许多、人口压力减轻，以及中国经济从重工业向劳动力密集的服务业逐渐转型，政府设定的新增长门槛介于6.5%和7%之间。

“（官方发布的）失业率是基于登记失业的人数，但中国大多数失业者没有登记的动力，”中国人民大学劳动人事学院副教授丁大建表示。“在最 糟糕的年份，政府不愿意发布（更精确的内部）失业率，学者们估计该数字可能高达20%。现在，劳动力市场的压力确实减轻了，所以这是一个 宣布实际失业率的很好时机。”

一些分析师认为，马建堂周二透露的内部数字仍然偏低。

经济学人信息部(EIU)根据其与国际货币基金组织(IMF)和国际劳工组织(ILO)联合进行的研究，上周发表了一份报告。报告估计， 中国2014年的实际失业率达到6.3%。

这比英国和美国都更高。EIU估计，去年英国失业率为6%，美国为6.2%。

若考虑到为中国经济发展立下汗马功劳、但几乎完全被失业统计忽略的2.74亿农民工，情况就更加复杂了。

多数农民工在失去工作后，都会回到自己在农村的家。

这些人一般都能生产足够的食物维生，对于中国在2008年末2009年初出现的那种大规模失业，这形成了某种安全网。

在另一方面，这些人严重就业不足，而且回到农村往往使他们再度陷入赤贫。

中国经济放缓预计将在今年持续下去，问题特别集中在房地产建筑业、制造业和重工业，这些产业都存在长期产能过剩。

“由于房地产持续低迷，进一步拖累2015年增长，就业将很可能承受压力，”瑞银(UBS)中国首席经济学家汪涛表示。“相对于 2008-2009年，我们预计这一次的裁员在规模上不那么严重，但会持续更久。”

就目前而言，中国领导人似乎对大规模裁员和与之相伴的社会动荡的可能性比较乐观。

但是，如果政府自身的内部失业数字是不准确的，那么在经济增长放缓期间，误判的风险只会增加。

李嘉诚的" 绝对 "

李嘉诚逆流迁址意义何 在？

新加坡国立大学法学院亚洲法律研究中心副主任 王江雨


公司改变注册地的事情屡见不鲜，大概没有一个比香港富豪李嘉诚将自己旗下两大公司长江和记实业（下称长和）和长江实业地产（下称长地）的 注册地从香港改为一般人在世界地图上找不到的开曼群岛这么引人注目和招来重重非议的，堪比（甚至要超过）前一阵苹果公司因为将大部分利润 放在爱尔兰避税受到美国国会调查而引发美国民间对苹果的沸腾物议。

依照“老超人”自己在新闻发布会上的说法，这次迁址只是正常的商业行为，为了“方便做生意”。当然，要公开讲出来的，怎么可能不是正常商 业行为呢？但是，结合这次行动的政治经济大背景和李家的种种表现来看，大概又不能轻易认为这是正常的商业行为。

关于李家迁址的动机，评论家们已经给出种种解说。经济角度讲的说法包括李嘉诚这位当代华人资本运作第一高手预见到中国大陆的经济危机，灵敏地嗅到人民币资产将贬值，或者在同理基础上看淡内地楼市。比 较接近政治八卦的说法是李嘉诚自己一本子长袖善舞，在大陆结下了深厚的政商关系，但担心身后两个儿子不能很好地继承和继续发展这些关系， 遂一走了之，另寻善地。

平心而论，这些说法也许都有根据都有道理，但说实话，李嘉诚为此惊天之举，自己心里到底怎么想，别人其实无从知道。他到底是深谋远虑，还 是老来失策，解读者熙熙攘攘，但却无法从这个大活人的言行上看出可信的解释。笔者也无意对李超人的动机妄加揣测，在信息不充足的情况下这 大概也是个不可能的任务。但就种种迹象来判断，李嘉诚确实是在撤离陆港。其操作手法总体看来，也颇有“仓皇辞庙”的感觉，不无诡异之处。

首先，对长实与和黄迁往外国这件事，不能等同一般企业的海外注册。尽管香港很多人，尤其是中下层人民，近年来变得越发不喜欢李嘉诚，李本 人和他的这两家企业仍然是“香港梦”的最佳象征。李是香港土生土长的世界顶级大富豪，这两家企业也是香港注册香港成长起来并走向全世界成 为世界级的跨国公司。李嘉诚和他的这两家企业，一路讲述了一个白手起家而雄霸天下的励志故事，代表自由资本主义体制下香港人可能的成长空 间。如此的象征，竟然一夜之间弃香港而去，难免天下震动。而以李嘉诚几十年来被无数大风大浪已经证明的过人判断力，在迁册之前，不可能不 意识到此举引发的反响，但他仍然执意为之，说明必有某种迫切的需要，使他宁可背上“我负香港人”的道德包袱。

更有甚者，这次迁址开曼群岛，也是一个李超人食言自肥的故事。关于李嘉诚撤资陆港的传说由 来有年，为此李自2012年起就屡次“辟谣”，多次在公开场合强调长实与和黄绝对不会改变注册地，“相 信多年以后都会屹立在香港”。2013年底李嘉诚接受内地《南方周末》等报纸采访，还信誓旦旦反复说“绝不迁册”，声言 “撤资”是个笑话。话音落未经年，就雷厉风行办好了一切手续，将万亿元的商业帝国乾坤大挪移到了海外小岛。 这种严重失信的行为发生在李嘉诚身上，几乎是另一个负面的奇迹。须知李嘉诚素来以诚信经商闻名，网上随便搜搜都能找出一大堆他如何以 高明诚信的为人处世之道取信商业伙伴的故事，不管是真的还是变得，这些故事足以体现李在商业世界的绝佳口碑。从这个角度讲，迁册这件 事，李嘉诚在短短几个月之内食言自肥，自毁信誉，颇展现出一点诡异。

李嘉诚迁册的难以理解之处还在于，从政商关系角度，这是一个得罪各方之举。香港方经历“占中”风波，关于2017年行政长官普选的争执， 不仅尘埃未定，甚至可以说仍然是波涛汹涌。此时此刻，无论是北京、港府还是泛民派（即民主派），都期待李的某种支持。从北京和梁振英领导 的港府角度，一是期待李发声反对“占中”，二是希望他协助保持香港稳定，以展现“一国两制”的成功。从泛民派角度，也是会希望李留在香 港，以展示就算他们以激烈手段争取普选，香港依然能够保持繁荣不乱。李此时高调撤出，展现的姿态是谁也不支持，也就是说对谁都不满意，一 举得罪各方，这也不符合李在这方面一贯长袖善舞八面玲珑的风格。

要说李嘉诚经商不在乎政治支持，只是凭着巨大的财力我行我素，这全然不符合事实。李嘉诚固然是商业天才，他在香港发家的历史也留下了若干 传奇性的经营手段，但他在大陆的成功，尤其是在地产业谋取的巨大资产和利润，背后有着明显的权力影子。别的不说，建设北京的东方广场，拆 迁了长安街十几个部委和无数有权官僚，没有通天的政治关系如何能做到？李的公司在大陆长期囤地而不开发，几乎不摊成本而坐享地价上涨之 利，若干地方政府对其无可奈何，这绝不是“商业天才”所能解释的。如今李嘉诚逐步淡出陆港，笔者认为这可能的原因是，他或者自认为已经强 大到不需在乎原来的政商背景，或者和背后的势力达成默契，或者已经觉得大势已去，不可挽回地失去了原有的政治支持。

综上所述，从政治事理的角度去分析，很难理解李嘉诚为何要在这种时候高调将旗舰企业迁出香港。这个行为也许短期在经济上有意义，比如理顺 股价估值等等（其实这个通过在香港注册新公司来充足也完全可行），但如果长期看在政治上是逆流而上，那么其前景颇有莫测之处，还需走着 瞧。

 

After The Swiss National Bank’s ‘Nuclear Explosion’ - The casualties just keep rolling in

The casualties just keep rolling in.

After last week’s shocker from the Swiss National Bank to remove the franc’s peg against the euro, many currency dealers saw huge sums of money walk out the door.

And now according to Bloomberg’s Elena Logutenkova and Jeffrey Vögeli, Credit Suisse and Saxo Bank have warned that the sudden currency swing may hurt profit.

Via Bloomberg:

“The full force of the decision won’t be known for months and is ‘closer to a nuclear explosion than a 1,000-kilogram conventional bomb,’ Javier Paz, senior analyst in wealth management at Aite Group, said in an e-mail Tuesday. ‘The aftermath is like a black hole that can suck massive amounts of credit from currency trading as we have known it.’”

Credit Suisse is Switzerland’s second-largest bank.

In a note last Thursday, Morgan Stanley’s Huw van Steenis wrote: “We estimate a 10% appreciation vs $/€/£ may lead to ~14-16% EPS impact. So moves today (15% against major currencies) mean we estimate CS prima facie may see a 21-24% reported EPS fall.”

Credit Suisse will report fourth quarter and full-year results on February 2.

The bank’s profits more than doubled in the third quarter to 1.03 billion Swiss francs ($1.17 billion), after posting a net loss of $779 million in the second quarter due to litigation costs. In the fourth quarter of 2013, its adjusted net income rose 11% from the previous quarter to $1.462 million.

UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, has not yet commented on the impact of the franc’s surge, according to Bloomberg.

Saxo Bank, a Danish bank, said some of its clients may lose undisclosed amounts of money because they may not be able settle unsecured amounts, Bloomberg reports. In a statement, the bank’s global head of finance and operations, Steen Blaafalk, said it is seeing a flood of new clients “after the Swiss situation has affected other players.”

Blaafalk told Bloomberg that he saw it coming back in September, and increased clients’ margin requirements for the franc. The bank will now require clients who have leveraged accounts in franc to increase their protections.

Over the weekend an entire hedge fund shut down after being on the wrong side of the franc trade, and the largest currency broker in the US got a $300 million lifeline after suffering heavy losses, while and large banks from Citigroup to Deutsche Bank lost millions.