日本将迈向军国主义？

中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所战略研究室主任 薛力

Everything you have been reading in the local Chinese newspapers is nothing but about Japan's militarism as if Japan is definitely going to attack, invade and recolonize Asia. Not one of the writers say anything that Japan as the world's top 3 most powerful economy and a normal country as like any others need a strong military to protect their country (especially from China) . Of course the as ever China ass licking Chinese media say nothing about China's military adventurism or how many wars China had gone in after WW2.  

In every country, there are always the right and left wings(including China - Mao is extreme left, Deng is right/ USA has the right wing Neo-cons and Tea Party, the lefts have the Inconvenient Truth guy)

安倍内阁7月1日决定修改宪法解释以解禁集体自卫权，

这一政策变化在外界的预料中。由于干系重大，有些媒体将之解释为“历史性的转折”。因此，饱 受日本侵略之苦的国家（尤其是中国、韩国、朝鲜），有充分的理由想知道：这 是否构成着日本迈向“正常国家”的重要一步？照此发展下去，日本是 否将迎来军国主义的复兴？
对于第一个问题，我们的回答是：毫无疑义；对于第二个问题，我们的回答是：可能性甚微。
其实，日本走向“正常国家”的历程很正常。
战败国谋求恢复正常国家地位乃普遍现象，其中国防部的重设与军队的重建是重要标志。就二战战败国而言，意大利因为投降早，1945年居然成了战胜 国，自然有了国防部，组建的武装部队包括陆军、空军、海军与宪兵，多次参加国际维护行动并发挥领导作用，如2007年领导驻黎巴嫩维和部队。联邦 德国则在1955年恢复了国防部并组建了联邦国防军。1994年联邦宪法法院裁定国防军的防卫行动不限于德国境内。2003年德国与荷兰联手接过 了驻阿富汗国际安全部队的指挥权。
日本2007年1月把防卫厅升格为防卫省，自卫队还没有改名（未来改名的可能性很大），其在维和行动中的作用限于为盟国供油、提供运输工具、负责 裁军复员等。2013年底首次为韩国维和部队提供子弹并因此遭到批评。
战后的日本表现为奇怪的二重性：一方面拒绝对二战进行全面而彻底的反省以赢得其侵略受害国的谅解；另一方面则强调战争给日本带来的各种危害与灾 难，尤其强调自己的“原爆”唯一受害国身份，因而强调和平、不战。美国出于冷战的需要要求德国与日本均重整军备。与德国总理阿登纳的做法不同，时 任日本首相吉田茂审时度势，对此加以拒绝，确立了“安全上依靠美国、集中力量发展经济”的吉田路线，这一路线因为“吉田学校”的众多学生而得以长 期执行。
随着冷战的结束，小泽一郎在1990年代提出了“正常国家论”。由于“五五体制”终结后的政局变幻，以及经济上经历“失去的二十年”，“国家正常 化”进展缓慢。但是，“实现国家正常化”已经成为大部分日本政治家的共识，差别在于实现正常化的途径与时机。
小泉五年多的执政为日本经济结构调整打下了一定的基础，他迎合日本因为少子高龄化等原因导致的社会整体右倾保守化趋势，试图以“靠拢美国疏远中 国”的方式推进“正常化”进程，参拜靖国神社就是这一路线的集中表现。但他2006年9月出乎意料地自我结束了政治生涯，并选择安倍晋三为接班 人。
安倍虽然实现了从防卫厅到防卫省的升格，但自民党的弱势地位与随后民主党的崛起打断了这一进程。民主党外交上的摇摆与内政上的无所作为兼失误让老 百姓倍感失望，从而给了自民党东山再起的良机。2012年12月挟高民意支持率第二次上台的安倍因而有本钱展示：“我这次不一样了”。安倍经济学 的三支箭虽然此前只射出两支（为了强化其改革，最近才提出新的“第三支箭”议程），客观上还是产生了一些效果。2013年7月的参议院选举验证了 这一点：执政联盟虽然没能获得三分之二的多数，但席位过半，改变了“扭曲国会”，显示执政联盟依然有过半民意的支持。这给了安倍进一步推进“正常 化”的动力。因而在9月份提出“积极和平主义”，12月底为韩国维和部队提供子弹。进入2014年，基于修改宪法第九条的民意基础尚不具备，他改 变操作方式，一方面希图修改宪法第九十六条以降低修宪门槛，另一方面则通过修改宪法解释来解禁集体自卫权，并在6月底实现了对公明党的说服工作。
可以预期，在社会整体保守化的趋势下，政权相对稳固的安倍政府，会继续把中国的崛起描绘成对日本的威胁，以此作为推进“国家正常化”的一大动力。 实力相对下降的美国在东亚奉行“再平衡”战略，乐见日本在安全问题上发挥更大作用，从而成为安倍推行其“正常化”政策的另一动力。
那么，又怎么证明整体保守化的日本，在变成“正常国家”后，不会走上二战时期的军国主义老路？
军国主义大致上可以定义为：把国家置于军事控制下，使政治、经济、教育等各个方面均服务于扩军备战和对外战争的思想和政治制度。换言之，军国主义 要求做到，一个国家的意识形态、国家制度、国家行为等方面都贯穿“以武力实现国家政策目标”。而国际环境、国家制度设计、民众意识等方面都阻止日 本再度变成军国主义国家。
国际环境方面，核武器有助于防止主要大国之间爆发全面战争；北约与美日同盟是美国保持世界领导地位的两大军事支柱，美国不会允许日本摆脱同盟关系 进而成为对自己构成重大威胁的国家。美日同盟的功能包括支持日本与约束日本两个方面。
国内方面，国际经济合作让日本实现了二战时通过军事手段未能实现的目标：源源不断获得原料，产品与投资进入外国市场，等等。天皇虚位制、三权分立 制度、文官制度等则从制度上防止日本恢复为二战时的军国主义国家。
民众意识是很重要的一点。大部分的日本问题研究者与观察家大概会同意：日本的军国主义教育制度已经被铲除；二战后的日本，和平主义深入人心，日本 人现在津津乐道的一点是，二战后日本自卫队迄今没有因为战争原因死亡一个人；日本政府拒绝像德国那样反思二战侵略罪行的原因有多重，但这不意味着 日本人依然好战如昔；日本的和平宪法是在美国主导下制定的，但反对修改和平宪法的力量主要来自日本国内而不是美国。
按照日本官方的解释，解禁集体自卫权只是规定，与日本关系密切的国家遭到武力攻击、从根本上对日本国民的生命和权利形成明确危险的情况下，允许日 本行使“必要最小限度”的武力。也就是说，以前日本只能在遭受侵略时予以反击，现在可以在自身未遭受侵略时动用武力。这离向海外派遣作战部队还有 一段距离。像意大利那样领导维和部队是下一步的事情，像德国那样领导国际安全部队则是下两步的事情。
至于日本以武力侵略他国（比如韩国与朝鲜），很难想象会获得日本国民的支持，也会因为违反时代特征而难以获得其盟友美国的支持。
也许世界战争难以杜绝，但中国现在可以有把握地说：不怕任何国家来侵略。这对于经历百年屈辱的中国来说，具有特殊的重要性。因此，外交部发言人洪 磊7月1日下午在记者招待会上也只是说：日本方面应切实尊重亚洲邻国的合理关切，谨慎处理有关问题，不得损害中国国家主权和安全，不得损害地区的 和平稳定。其间透露出来的信息是：对于日本的这一变化，中国注意到了，但不紧张。

Why Argentina Is Now Getting Exactly What It Deserves

Argentina has its back against a wall. On July 30 it may default on a sovereign-debt payment that could send its economy into a tailspin of rising interest rates, money printing, and inflation.
It could be the worst economic tragedy the republic has seen since 2001.
And the tragedy will be well deserved, because this is a drama of Argentina’s own making, a figment of political imagination tied closely with its history and culture. In Argentina, debt is identity, and this specific over-$1.3 billion debt in question, purchased by a group of hedge fund managers back in 2001, has hit a nerve.

Here’s what former finance minister Hernan Lorenzino said about it in 2012:

“The state has the capacity to make these payments. We have the funds available to make these payments. But fundamentally, we have the political will to continue paying as we have paid. The possibility of default does not exist in Argentina … (The rating agencies) pretend to install the idea that something is going to fail as they have been unsuccessfully for years. They will not accomplish this.”
For over a decade the country has refused to pay a group of hedge fund managers led by Elliott Management’s Paul Singer. This group, known as NML, refused to take a massive haircut on Argentine sovereign debt purchased after the country’s last crash. Argentina, in turn, refused to pay them 100 cents on the dollar and fought to continue doing so all the way to the Supreme Court. It lost.
On July 7, the republic will enter into settlement talks with a court appointed special master in New York. Its new finance minister, Axel Kicillof, will be there, supposedly to negotiate.

“We’re glad to see the press reports that Argentina has agreed to meet with the special master next week in New York,” said Jay Newman, senior portfolio manager at Elliott Management. “But engagement with the court or with creditors doesn’t have to wait another week. We’re ready to meet with Minister Kicillof during his visit to Washington, D.C., this week, and to negotiate without preconditions. We’re serious about negotiations, but we are still waiting for Argentina to engage in any dialogue with us.”
Remember … “supposedly.”

The reality is that Kicillof has been in Washington meeting with international bodies like the Organization of American States for weeks. He’s been trying to convince them that Argentina should not have to honor the clause in its bond agreement with the holdout hedge fund managers that has been the crux of this case — the pari passu clause.

This clause states that Argentina cannot favor one group of investors over another. That’s what it had been doing — paying the bondholders that restructured, and not the holdouts. Last month it tried to pay everyone except the holdouts (not the best show of faith). But the judge presiding over this case, Judge Griesa, wasn’t having it and sent the payments back to Argentina.
If some investors get paid, every investor must get paid.
To Argentina, the problem is the holdouts are not investors — they’re “vultures.” They bought the republic’s debt after its 2001 default, which President Cristina Fernandez argues shows that they only meant to speculate with it.

Fernandez said as much in her speech after the Supreme Court decided against the republic. On a live 30-minute broadcast she walked her nation through a history lesson.

She told the story of 1976, the first time international debt turned to inflation. It was, she said, “without a doubt the most powerful trap we’d been in keeping us from growth, the development of Argentina, it created poverty, backwardness, homelessness, a lack of infrastructural development, investment in education, in science … “
Since then, Argentine politicians have associated speculators with their worst national nightmares. They are the lowest of the low and, as such, deserve no respect.

“This was a political decision leaders had made,” bankruptcy expert William A. Brandt, CEO of Development Specialists Inc., a firm specializing in turnarounds, told Business Insider in 2012. “Argentina is an incredibly sophisticated economy and brought this problem on itself by doing the unthinkable and defaulting on its debt.”

In that same speech, Fernandez said that paying the holdouts could bring similar claims out of the woodwork — claims to the tune of $15 billion — which would wipe out half of the country’s dollar reserves.

Still, some contest that argument. In a note, debt specialist Josh Rosner of GrahamFisher said that even if that is true (if) Argentina could still manage the $15 billion:

“Argentina has ignored the reality that even if that $15 billion number was correct and the creditors unwilling to negotiate a payment formula that was acceptable to both parties, the government would still be able to manage the increased debt burden as a percent of GDP. Moreover, late last year, at least one Wall Street firm offered to raise the full $15 billion that the government claims it owes. If the government chose to raise capital as a means of resolving this impasse, it would normalize its relations with the international capital markets, reduce its cost of funds going forward and immediately begin to attract the foreign investment necessary to develop key industries, including its energy sector and the broader economy.”

The other argument Argentina has used to avoid payment is to say that this sets a dangerous precedent for investors in sovereign debt. If investors can avoid haircuts by refusing to restructure, why would they ever?

Argentina’s refusal to pay the holdouts has thrown the entire sovereign-debt system into question.

None of this is to say that Paul Singer and his crew have not been aggressive, sparking a sort of PTSD in the Argentine psyche. NML has used the law to go after Argentine assets all over the world, at one point getting a Ghanaian court to impound an Argentine naval vessel as collateral.

But that doesn’t make the country’s intransigence right. The tone of its politicians has crossed the line into hysterical territory. One of President Fernandez’s deputies, Carlos Kunkel, told the Argentine press that he was convinced that Judge Griesa — the man who handed down the ruling that the country must pay — is forcing negotiations because he’ll get a cut of the payout.

Would you want to lend this country money?

新疆穆斯林师生及公务员斋月被禁封斋 -

为什么大马穆斯林兄弟不敢责骂伟大祖国？

中国新疆地方政府下令禁止政府部门的穆斯林公务员和师生封斋，海外流亡维吾尔人团体称这将导致更多冲突， 并呼吁中国当局保护维族的宗教自由。

穆斯林斋月从6月28日开始。虔诚的信徒从日出到日落不吃不喝。

新疆若干地区政府和公务部门近日在官方网站发表通告，明令禁止干部封斋。

一些地方当局7月1日还组织基层穆斯林干部开会，庆祝共产党建党，并免费招待穆斯林干部吃喝。

中国政府认为“疆独”武装分子应该对新疆地区治安局势紧张负责，但人权组织称中国政府在新疆限制穆斯林宗教文化。

流亡海外的世界维吾尔大会（世维会）发言人迪里夏提表示，强迫穆斯林不封斋，而且还上 门检查是否偷偷封斋，这种做法将触发更多冲突。

世维会呼吁中国政府保证维吾尔人的宗教自由，停止对斋月的压制。

新疆博州电大根据新疆维吾尔自治区教育系统《社会面稳定信息搜集研判实施办法》禁止学校师生和未成年人封斋，偷偷封斋的一旦发现将被开除。

新疆气象局喀什分局同民族职工和退休职工还签定了《斋月期间宗教目标管理责任书》，要 求全体职工一律不得封斋。

博州电大在自己网站公布禁止党员干部、教师和学生封斋，并在周一组织在职和退休的维吾尔、哈萨克、回族和乌兹别克族等信奉伊斯兰教的老师参 加禁止封斋的“宣传教育活动”。
吐鲁番地区商务局周一表示，公务员和学生不得封斋或参加其他宗教活动。

    Uighurs are ethnically Turkic Muslims
    They make up about 45% of the region's population; 40% are Han Chinese
    China re-established control in 1949 after crushing short-lived state of East Turkestan
    Since then, there has been large-scale immigration of Han Chinese
    Uighurs fear erosion of traditional culture

 

李显龙： 未“日落西山” 中国不应低估美国

Japanese made the same mistake and underestimated US strength and attacked Pearl harbor. The Soviets did it over and over again during the Cold War and had themselves disintegrated. The Islamic Facists thought so and staged 911 and they pay the price. China thinks Americans and their leaders are weak, unwilling to go to war is making the same mistake now.

    李显龙上周在访美期间接受当地具影响力的政治媒体“Politico”主编格拉瑟（Susan Glasser）的专访。

新加坡总理李显龙提醒，美国还没“日落西山”，中国不应低估美国的实力。

韧性大可触底回升

他说，许多人可能没有发现美国的韧性有多强。他们 认为在环球金融危机后，美国已经日落西山，也预期新势力的崛起。

“但我有机会时会告诉他们事实不然，美国是个深具韧性的国家，具有无穷的精力、创 意和动力，而它必将触底回升。”

李显龙上周三在访美期间接受当地具影响力的政治媒体“Politico”的专访时，这么提醒。

他指中国和一些区域国家对美国的看法也可能存有偏差，低估了美国的实力。

同时，李显龙指出，在中国也存在一种观点，认为美国正尝试限制和阻挠其崛起，但他不认为美国会这么做，因为亚洲国家都要与中国合作，并把握中 国提供的机会，与之共同繁荣。

“即使是美国，也与中国有许多联系。”

中共避免塑造强势形象

李显龙认为，中国并非全无言论自由的庞然专政体制，也试着避免用强权立足于国际社会。

根据总理新闻秘书提供给本地媒体的英文访谈记录，李显龙形容，中美关系相互依赖，中国是美国最大的贸易伙伴，购买了许多美国政府债券；与此同 时，美国是中国的科技和新概念来源，也是许多中国有为青年求学的目的地。

“中美关系存在许多正面元素，当双方遇到困难，无论是（区域的）领土和海事纠纷、兑换率或人权问题，都须以不将这段关系导向错误方向的方法善 加处理。”

从国际角度看，李显龙认为，中国一方面要捍卫他们视为合理的自身利益，但同时也了解到依靠强权而非其他国家的认同，长远将不利于中国和世界， 因此在寻找平衡。

李显龙坦言，尽管中国仍有一些言论禁忌，如共产党的统治、西藏和台湾的统独课题，也存在互联网受审查和“中国防火墙”的政策。

中国经济数据科幻小说

看不懂中国经济数据

英国《金融时报》 吉密欧

 

《拨开中国经济数据迷雾：如何理解和使用中 国的统计 数据》(Myth-Busting China’s Numbers: Understanding and using China’s statistics)，马修•克拉布(Matthew Crabbe)著，Palgrave Macmillan出版，建议零售价：14.99英镑/24美元

尽管拥有13.6亿人口和世界第二大经济规模，但中国总能在每季度结束后短短两周的时间里收集、审核并公布季度国内生产总值(GDP)数 据，之后从不修正。

高度自治的香港特别行政区人口只有700万人，却花费6周时间整理公布数据。美国则花费8周，在最初数据公布之后还会不断修正。

还有一种在统计学上不可能出现的奇怪现象：中国各省公布的年增长率均高于全国平均水平。

就连中国总理李克强也称中国的经 济统计数据是“人造”的，并建议使用用电量、银行贷款和货运量等不易被操纵的指标，来估算真正的 经济增长率。

 

20多年来，马修•克拉布一直试图理解中国令人迷惑且往往自相矛盾的统计数据。他的这本著作是一本实用的入门读本，介绍了这些统计数据的问 题以及理解中国经济数据的方法。

克拉布通过故事和案例呈现出实用知识，对于需要对在华业务的投资或运营做出决策的跨国企业高管来说，这些知识是无价之宝。

他指出的第一点、也是最重要的一点是：在中国的列宁主义体制中，所有信息都与政治有 关，只要执政的共产党认定信息无助于巩固它的合法性和权力，便可随时将其划为“国家机密”。

克拉布还解释了数据和统计数字为何屡屡被中共干部操纵。这些人的仕途升迁在很大程度上取决于能否完成中央公布的各个目标。

本书出版的时机非常恰当——正值全球各地自称“中国通”的专家数量呈指数级上升之际。

克拉布反复强调的一大重点是，光看政府公布的数据，是无从了解中国的真实情况的。

最说明问题的一个案例是他2006年私下进行的一项深度调查，结论是中国零售市 场当时的实际规模约为北京公布数字的一半。

这就解释了一个问题：当时许多跨国公司根据零售业销售的官方数据制定了自己的销售和营收目标，但难以完成任务。

鉴于世界各地充斥着大量有关中国的劣质信息和分析，克拉布的著作不失时机地敲响了一记警钟：任何人如要透彻了解这个经济规模堪比一个大洲的 国家，都应当引以为戒。

考虑到克拉布经营着一家从上世纪90年代起就关注中国市场的消费品和零售咨询机构，不难料到他最优秀的分析和观点均与这些关键领域有关。

不过，本书部分篇幅的编辑仍不够严谨，缺乏价值的数据图表太多。另一个小问题是，克拉布论点的证据主要引自2013年，因此本书在出版之前 便已经有些过时了。

这种做法的风险在临近结尾处凸显出来：克拉布断言中国房地产价格可能将长时间持续上涨，但目前中国各地房价正在下降。

但总体而言，这是一本实用、有益的书，工作以理解中国这个世界人口第一大国家为基础的跨国企业高管、分析师和战略师，均应将其作为必读书 目。

本文作者是英国《金融时报》北京分社社长

FCPO - How Real Are The Selling ? -7/7/2014


The new sell signal flashed on the previous Friday became good on last Monday when price went below the signal day low. I went in and sold and now will place my stop above the middle band. After pausing for anew days, price has gone below the bottom band on last Friday. This may mean price is getting on another round of selling.
The MACD manages to stay positive though it has been turning downward. The Stochastic continues to slide downward, it has just crossed below the 50's signal line which may bring more sellers out. The DMI stays negative with the ADX goes flat at 20's. The flat ADX reflects the lack of intensity in the market.
 

 

The weekly chart previous week's Japanese long top shadow line Candlestick forewarned the current market's fall correctly. Price went below the past week's low. The MACD continues to slide. The Stochastic is still inside the oversold zone but there is no buy signal yet. The DMI stays negative with the D- whipping up . This means the sellers have been getting wild again.
But as I mentioned last week that I have been harboring some vague bullish thoughts on this market. The weekly Stochastic has been getting interesting as price is coming down but the indicator is not. instead it is going higher. I would take this as an encouraging sign the sellers may be faking it this round. But of course, this does not mean you can go start buying now as the sell signal at the daily chart is not done yet. I would need to see it crossing up above the 20's signal line to get really excited.

FKLI - Market Has Not Made Up Its Mind Yet - 7/7/2014

 


A new sell signal came along on last Monday when price went below the top band with the Stochastic crossing down its 80's signal line. And the signal was made good on the next day when price went below the signal day low. But the trade quickly went sour as price went back above the top band on Wednesday and hit my stop. There is no new buy signal after that. Though price went and stayed above the top band but the Stochastic has failed to compliment. By last Friday price has again came back below the top band.

The MACD remains positive but seems to getting ready to cross down again. The Stochastic stays negative. The DMI is still positive with the ADX rising. But since it is still below the 20's signal line, I would just keep an eye on it . Until price can break above the 1897 resistance convincingly , I would not get too excited about the next buy signal.

Both the MACD and Stochastic has formed another new negative divergence.

 
The weekly chart has not changed much from that of the previous week. The MACD, Stochastic and DMI remain positive. The Stochastic is inside the overbought zone and since the ADX is at a lowly 17's level, so I would continue to place greater weight on the Stochastic. The Japanese Candlestick is another small body candlestick which usually mean a market indecision. So I would watch out for a possible reversal.