Sunday, July 14, 2013

The China's "Palestine" Problem 

中国领导人新疆西藏面临新挑战

新疆 在新疆的中国军警时时处于严 密戒备状态。
《金融时报》周三(3日)报道说,中国新领导人正在为解决经济增长模式出现问题而忙得不可开交之 际,另一个大问题又冒了出来,需要最高层研究解决:新疆和西藏构成的新挑战。
新疆和西藏是中国的两个战略位置重要,资源丰富的“自治区”,占全中国国土面积的三分之一,当地少数民族社区强烈反对北京的统治, 而且越来越难以控制。
新疆在过去一周连续3天出现动荡局面,在其中一个事件中就有35人丧生。当地居民表达不满的暴力事件继续增加,而且在不断加剧,涉 及的范围也越来越大。
与此同时,在西藏以及其他藏民集居的地区,不断有年轻男女自焚。人权活动人士说,这些自焚事件是藏人对中国当局不断镇压所采取的殊 死反抗。
两周前,在四川省有一名藏族尼姑自焚身亡,这是最新的自焚事件。自2011年以来,已经发生了100多起藏人自焚事件。
活动人士和独立观察人士表示,西藏首府拉萨2008年爆发骚乱,新疆首府乌鲁木齐2009年发生暴力事件,而中国政府针对这些事件 所采取的一些应对政策却使当地的局势进一步恶化。
周五(7月5日)是乌鲁木齐暴乱事件4周年,事件导致200人丧生,目前当地的局势仍然很紧张。当局已经部署了大批武警试图控制当 地情绪。
中国著名作家王立雄在拉萨接受采访时表示,西藏和新疆不断出现骚乱显示,中国政府 的少数民族政策已经彻底失败。”
中央党校靳蔚教授呼吁中共与 西藏流亡精神领袖达赖喇嘛开展对话。
报道说,当局一直在严格限制藏族僧侣和尼姑的行动自由,而且要求来自其他省份的藏族居民要想进入西藏,必须持有特殊证件。
在新疆的维吾尔族居民行动自由也受到同样的限制。当局经常设置路障,并对有成员在外地工作的维族家庭进行核查,禁止维族人入住新疆 以外地区的饭店。
北京还在西藏和新疆推行大规模强迫迁移安置计划,当地居民认为这些做法是在遭破坏他们的民族文化。
中国政府还扩大推行侵权的宗教政策,其中包括强迫藏族僧侣和尼姑参加学习班,向维吾尔族穆斯林施加压力,要求他们剃掉胡须停止使用面纱,还强迫学生打破传统斋月期间的封斋习俗

西藏问题

在西藏问题上,北京已经出现认真辩论政策的迹象。靳蔚上个月发表的一篇文章具有标志意义。她是中共中央党校社科教研部从事西藏政策 研究的教授。
靳蔚呼吁中共与西藏流亡精神领袖达赖喇嘛开展对话,并表示中国官员应该尊重藏人对达赖喇嘛的宗教崇拜。她还婉转地批评胡锦涛所推行 的西藏政策。
虽然还没有发生具体的政策变化,但是学者们表示这样的观点能够发表说明中共领导人的态度有明显转变。
美国哥伦比亚大学现代西藏研究项目主任巴尼特表示,“看到有像靳蔚这样的人士敢于公开讨论这个问题,令人感到非常激动。”
“靳蔚是在呼吁中国在针对达赖喇嘛采取的政策上进行重新思考。”
在北京的学者说,靳蔚教授呼吁与达赖喇嘛重启对话得到了当局的支持。北京上次与达赖喇嘛的代表举行正式磋商是在2010年。
观察人士说,当局要想稳定西藏的形势,就应取消一些最不得人心的措施,其中包括限制行动自由,但是还有很长的路要走。

新疆问题

《金融时报》报道说,在新疆问题上,当局目前在政策上稍加微调都是不可能的。
以色列海法大学维吾尔族问题专家施克教授(Yitzhak Shichor)表示,“北京可能对新疆问题仍采取零敲碎打的应变方式。”
中国领导人一直认为西藏和新疆是两个不同的问题。
在新疆,中国政府几十年来推行的移民政策,汉族人口即将超过维吾尔族的人口。由于汉族人口受教育程度高,比较富有,使许多维吾尔人 在对土地,就业机会和市场的竞争中处于劣势。
虽然西藏城镇区域也受到同样的压力,但是由于西藏高原海拔高,气候条件非常恶劣,当局要想向农村地区大批移民几乎是不可能。
人权观察组织高级研究员林伟(Nicholas Bequelin)表示,“对于中共来说,新疆纯粹是一个安全问题,是一个保护当地汉族人口的问题。但是西藏是一个政治问题,因为你不能通过移民方式来控 制西藏。”

Leona Lewis talks "Motown" Christmas album


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Leona Lewis has spoken about her upcoming Christmas album.

The singer revealed that she has recorded the festive collection upon the recommendation of label boss Simon Cowell and confirmed that she will have original material on the set.

Leona
            Lewis, Glassheart tour, Royal Albert Hall
© WENN
Leona Lewis
Britain's Got Talent judge Simon Cowell
© ITV / Thames/Syco
Britain's Got Talent judge Simon Cowell


"Simon is still very much involved in my career and helps me out," Lewis told the Evening Standard. "He came up with the Christmas album idea, and we both kind of felt it was the right time to go ahead with it.

"I'm doing some classics with quite a Motown feel. There's also going to be a bit of original material in there."

The new album will serve as the follow-up to her third studio collection Glassheart, which reached number three in the UK last year.

Watch Leona Lewis perform 'All I Want For Christmas' and 'O Holy Night' below:

Motown steps on Degas - Should Detroit sell its art?

I’ve already sold my clothes
Detroit has the highest concentration of Muslims and blacks in the country and 2 of most corrupted black racist mayors.

ONE of the masterpieces in the Detroit Institute of Arts (DIA) is James Whistler’s “Nocturne in Black and Gold”. Ominous dark shadows are punctuated with the light of fireworks falling to Earth. It is an “urban, ephemeral, indescribable spectacle”, says the blurb. It is “a pot of paint [flung] in the public’s face”, harrumphed John Ruskin, a Victorian critic. It could also be a metaphor for the rise and fall of Motown, not least since it is one of many works the bankrupt city may sell to pay off its debts.
Detroit has one of the finest art collections in America, including works by Van Gogh, Degas, Matisse and Bruegel the Elder. Murals by Diego Rivera, commissioned in the 1930s, show muscular workers cranking out cars in a Ford factory.
Many of those factory jobs have now left. (Some have gone to Rivera’s native Mexico.) Detroit’s population has collapsed. With a shrunken tax base, the city cannot service its debts of more than $17 billion, or $25,000 for every resident.
Desperate times call for harsh measures. Kevyn Orr, the city’s emergency manager, who was appointed this year with almost dictatorial powers to turn the city’s finances around, has ordered an inventory of the treasures in the DIA. These were valued at $1 billion in 2004; they may be worth more now. If Detroit formally declares bankruptcy, they may be sold. That would be controversial.
Many affluent suburbanites hate the idea. The suburbs that encircle Detroit are politically separate: suburbanites neither pay city taxes nor send their kids to crumbling city schools. But they do like to visit the art museum from time to time. Only last year, they voted to pay a special tax to subsidise it.
Even more appalling, for many suburbanites, is the prospect that the proceeds would bail out what they see as a corrupt and incompetent city government. In March a former mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, was convicted on two dozen charges, including racketeering and bribery. The city council is in chaos: its president has gone missing, amid allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a high-school boy. A third of the council seats are empty. “You start to get numb. This week it was the DIA, last week something else,” says Paul Tyll, an engineer who lives in the suburbs and voted for the DIA tax.
Race aggravates matters. The city is 83% black. Adjacent Oakland County is 77% white, and more than twice as rich. Suburbanites are glad that the governor of Michigan has appointed an emergency manager to sort out the city. In a poll, 78% of voters of Oakland County approved, against only 41% in Detroit itself.
The DIA is unusual in that it is directly owned by the city. Art museums elsewhere are typically owned by non-profit foundations. So whereas other struggling rust-belt cities with great art collections, such as Toledo and Cleveland, probably could not sell them to repay their creditors, Detroit probably can.
Scandalised out-of-towners are eager to prevent this. Michigan’s attorney-general says that the artwork is held in trust and therefore cannot be sold. State legislators are proposing a law that would block a debt-driven sell-off. Even if Mr Orr has the law on his side, creditors and art-buyers may be wary of getting tied up in court. Art-lovers hope that the red tape that helped wreck Detroit’s economy might save its art collection.
Paintings or pensions?
Were the city to sell its paintings, it would lose some of its allure for residents and tourists alike. Annemarie Erickson, the DIA’s chief operating officer, argues that art can “empower all of us”. But many residents will grasp at anything that means their pensions might be paid, or the streetlights might start working again. “I earned that pension,” says Robert Jones, a retired police officer who now helps run a car park outside the Detroit Tigers’ baseball stadium. “Paintings?” asks Carl, a ticket-scalper outside the same stadium: “What do I need with paintings?”

Why The Rolling Stones Keep Touring Despite Being Ancient Zillionaires








The Rolling Stones play the last stop of their current tour — and possibly their career — next week in London's Hyde Park.

Their last few shows have drawn rave reviews, and the returns on their earlier shows have been strong.

But others have called it "the night of the living dead" tour, for reasons that are perhaps evident.

And the Rolling Stones are already one of the wealthiest bands in the world. Their last tour grossed more than half a billion dollars. Mick Jagger is said to be worth more than $300 million, Keith Richards just a bit less.

So why do these guys keep going on tour?

There are three reasons.

First, digitized music is now virtually worthless. Prof. Peter Tschmuck, a professor at the University of Music and Performing Arts in Vienna who runs a blog about the economics of the music business, told me the return on investment from selling a digital copy of a song is 12% compared with about 36% for CDs — and that's before that revenue is carved up to various title holders.

Professor Jeff Dorenfeld, Professor of Music Business/Management at the Berklee College of Music, told us songs have been losing value for more than a decade.

There's very little money made from recorded music anymore. Apple — iTunes is mostly a singles market, Spotify, that kind of service doesn't pay high royalties, radio is not as big as it used to be. So all those revenues are not where they were, and haven't been for the last 15 years.

Second — and luckily in response to item 1 — touring now generates lots of money. And it's especially lucrative to be the Rolling Stones. Their last three tours combined will likely have grossed about $1 billion (the mid-2000s "Licks" tour did +$300 million, and the current one could do more than $100 million for a much more limited set of dates). The average ticket price is $370. Bruce Springsteen is only $93.29.

When asked recently by the Guardian's Casper Llewellyn Smith about whether he regrets bassist's Bill Wyman leaving the band in 1993, Charlie Watts cracked,"I think he missed out on a very lucrative period in our existence."

rolling stones

REUTERS/Mike Blake

The band in Anaheim.
Money is money, Dorenfeld says, noting that bands as big as the Stones command supremely high margins on splits with concert promoters and bookers because of the guaranteed interest they draw.

They're getting more than 60% is my guess (of a show's gross revenues). If the show made $3 million, that's $1.8 million, not counting merch — you walk away with that also. They're unique —  all the ones like them are unique — the deals are much tighter because the revenue from everything else is much greater.

An additional consideration — perhaps not for the band, but for anyone who would think the Stones are wasting everyone's time and perhaps risking ridicule — is that while the band is just the four current members, "Rolling Stones, Inc." likely employs more than a dozen people full time and hundreds while on the road.
rolling stones texas

Youtube

The band in its salad days.
Setting up stages, even for arena tours like the current one, are massive operations that Dorenfeld says can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a night. "They're a major corporation on the road — they're a company," he says. "They do pay well, many have benefits and healthcare."

This final point was probably first ever articulated in 1995 by Larry Mullen Jr. of U2, the band that basically invented blow-out multi-sensory  rock n' roll tours, in Bill Flanagan's "At The End Of The World":

The biggest responsibility out of all this is the fact that you employ a lot of people and you are responsible for them, responsible for making sure they're taken care of. People's livelihoods are depending on you. I don't like that responsibility too much, but that comes with the territory.

Of course, one does not go on tour merely to keep your entourage happy. But it's part of the equation.

Asking  why the Stones "need" to go on tour leaves out the question of "wanting" to go on tour. They're still ostensibly artists, after all. Here's what Jagger said in an interview with Chicago Tribune rock critic Greg Kot in April:

Everyone had a really good time in the five shows before Christmas (in London, New Jersey and New York). We wanted to see how the band was playing, how people were reacting. We didn’t get too much moaning or complaining.

Given all of the above, that seems to be a fairly low hurdle to surmount.

座位真的决定生死! 空难坐哪里最可能保命

格林威治大学教授盖立盖立研究了超过100起坠机事件的座位表,并访问数十位空难生还者,他认为搭机的头条铁律是座位尽可能接近出口。他表 示,飞机失事起火时,要安全逃下机平均要通过五排座椅。他也发现,飞机后面的座位通常比较安全,走道旁的座位也是。

台北8日电,韩亚航空公司客机在旧金山机场失事的情景吓人,可能令搭机旅客心惊,但这次事件也证明即使再可怕的灾难仍有生还可能,专家表示, 搭机时坐在什么位置,可能在遇上空难时,决定是生是死。

美国广播公司新闻网(ABC News)报导,根据美国国家运输安全委员会(NTSB)统计,每120万个航班仅一个航班会发生事故,虽然风险很低,但旅客仍可以采取一些预防措施,准 备因应紧急状况。

格林威治大学(University of Greenwich)教授盖立(Ed Galea)投下超过25年时间,分析人们对紧急状况的反应。他表示,事发前几秒是最危险的时候。他指出:「你要为自己的性命负责。如果你知道自己要做什 么,就有比较大生存机会。」

盖立研究了超过100起坠机事件的座位表,并访问数十位空难生还者,他认为搭机的头条铁律是座位尽可能接近出口。他表示,飞机失事起火时,要 安全逃下机平均要通过五排座椅。他也发现,飞机后面的座位通常比较安全,走道旁的座位也是。

根据运输安全委员会,由1983至2000年间,美国坠机事件的生还机率是95%,但万一不幸遇上空难,盖立提醒务必要记得切莫惊慌。他说: 「如果没有想过要怎么做并做好准备,事发时会难以承受,不知所措。预做准备,遇到紧急情况,就会有适当的反应。」

探索频道(Discovery TV)去年进行有关飞航安全的大胆试验,让一架波音727型飞机坠毁在沙漠,驾驶在最后一刻跳伞后,飞机机腹朝下坠毁,机鼻最先触地,机身摔得四分五裂。

结果显示机身前方乘客所受冲击最大,第一到第七排座位都可能性命不保,而空难时快速逃出飞机也至关重要,坐在距出口不超过五排座位的机会较 大。

美国广播公司新闻网总裁薛伍德(Ben Sherwood)着有「离开死神前那一秒:32则死里逃生的真实故事,与简单的救命科学」(The Survivors Club-- The Secrets and Science That could Save Your Life)。

We Are Professional 

美证券交易委员会要求暂停五大事务所中国分支执业资 格

本周一,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)试图说服法官对五大会计师事务所(普华永道、毕马威、安永、德勤、BDO)的中国分支机构执行制裁,理 由是这些事务所拒绝向监管者提供相关的审计资料,阻碍了其对于在美国上市中国企业的欺诈调查。

据路透报道,在美国证券交易委员会举行的听证会中,一位SEC官员在证词里指控德勤没有交出相应的审计记录,造成对一家大型中国太阳能公司长 达三年的金融欺诈调查陷入停滞状态。

SEC助理执行官Laura Josephs表示:

“我们的(调查)进度被严重地拖延了。”

她还补充说,德勤在未执行SEC要求的情况下,仍为该公司以及其他公司“继续提供审计意见”。

去年十二月,SEC以违反证券条例为名,起诉了德勤、普华永道、毕马威、安永以及BDO的中国分支。由本周一开始的此次行政审判将持续数周, 这是SEC为了得到中国审计报告采取的最激进举动。

由于中国在美上市企业的会计丑闻不断,影响了投资者信心,美国政府正试图获得更多的监控权。

SEC要求暂停这些分支事务所的执业资格,该制裁将有效逼迫这些事务所的美国上市客户退市。

但审计事务所则表示,中国的法律禁止将审计报告提供给他国。

SEC曾经试图同中共政府通过协商解决该问题,但会谈失败。其随后起诉了这五家事务所。周一的庭讯大多与德勤为某太阳能公司提供的审计报告有 关,该公司被称为“公司A”。但法庭上公开的资料却显示这家公司为阿特斯太阳能(Canadian Solar)。该公司至今仍在纳斯达克交易,并且在2010年首次披露SEC对其的调查。

该公司发言人拒绝对此发表评论。

另一位被安永律师举证的神秘客户则是赛美特能源(SinoTech Energy),SEC去年起诉了该公司,双方已经达成了和解协议。

在证词中,Josephs淡化了会计师事务所声称中国法律阻碍分享文件,表示SEC仍然成功获得了A客户的资料。

但德勤的代表律师Michael Warden则认为,自己的客户和其他事务所没有违反联邦证券法,因为自己因中国法律而无法提供资料,并不是“有意违背”SEC的命令。

他补充说,在SEC提出要求之后,德勤立刻向中国的监管机构提供了19箱关于阿斯特太阳能的审计资料。但至今,中国监管机构也没有与SEC共 享这些资料。
Brazil - The Next To Go ?

Brazil's Economic Slowdown And Protests Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Brazil is pouring approximately $15 billion dollars into the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.

The sporting events are expected to generate a combined 3.6 million temporary and long-term jobs and to boost GDP growth by 0.4% every year through 2019.

But after growing 7.5% in 2010, Brazil's economy grew just 0.9% in 2012. Q1 wasn't much better, with GDP rising 0.6% from the previous quarter.

At 6.5%, inflation is high and hurting real wages. Which explains why consumption grew just 0.1% in Q1. Meanwhile, the Bovespa is down nearly 28% year-to-date.

And all this has finally come to a head.
Deep rooted issues

Last month, Brazilians took to the streets over high costs around the World Cup and the Olympics. Protestors have largely become tired of poor public services, corruptions, and rising costs.

"There are deeper issues behind the riots, such as the erosion of income caused by high inflation, the bad quality of public services in general, and frustration of the “new middle class” about the lack of further improvement in living standards, despite high expectations generated  by the hype surrounding the Brazilian economy in the past few years," Deutsche Bank's Esteban Polidura wrote in a note to clients.

For many the idea of Brazilians protesting football is hard to wrap their head around.

"It is not the game itself that they have forsaken, but rather the kind of game that football has become: a billion-dollar business, a prestige object for louche plutocrats, and an extravagant showpiece for corrupt governments and international sporting organizations," wrote Ian Buruma in a Project Syndicate column.

And protests like the ones we saw last month are rare.

"The protests are very peculiar but I think are very relevant especially considering Brazilian history," Fernando Losada, senior economist at AllianceBernstein told Business Insider.

"Brazil is different from other countries in Latin America. You probably heard of the cases of Argentina, even Mexico, where people go out on the streets to beat pots and pans, to do the so called cacerolazo, to protest against the government. That's rather unusual in Brazil."
Investment on the decline

While the decline in credit-fueled consumption growth has been a large factor in Brazil's economic slowdown, so has the decline in investment.

After Dilma Rousseff took office, the government veered towards more interventionist policies hurting investment, Losada said. And the slowdown in the global economy hasn't helped either.

In an attempt to pacify protestors the government has made some changes. It rolled back the fare hikes that sparked the initial protests. It has since announced a bigger punishment for corrupt officials. Oil revenue will be channeled to improve education and healthcare, and Congress is considering a motion for a popular vote on political reform.

Major fiscal policy changes are unlikely ahead of the 2014 presidential election. After that, all bets are off. "In her second term, Dilma will have no horizon to be re-elected, and the attitude of the government may change then," Losada told Business Insider.

Monetary policy will likely be tightened to curb inflation and boost real income. To boost economic growth, the government will have to do more to attract investment. An improvement in the global economy will also go some way in helping GDP.

But even if that were to play out, Brazil has one other problem to contend with. Major sporting events have often had a negative longer-term economic impact on the host country.