Xi Jinping - China facing ‘more complex’ security challenges, warns of ‘worst-case’ situation

 

 Xi Jinping -  China facing ‘more complex’ security challenges,   warns of ‘worst-case’ situation

  “The ‘worst-case scenarios’ might include a nuclear war, a devastating war that ruins China’s coastal economic belts [or] Western sanctions on China’s energy, finance and food supply,”

 

  Officials must stay ‘keenly aware’ of challenges and prepare for ‘most extreme scenarios’, President Xi Jinping tells National Security Commission

 
    Comments show China harbours no ‘illusions’ about fallout of US rivalry and has little hope of a lasting improvement in ties, analysts say

 China is facing more complex and difficult national security concerns, President Xi Jinping warned on Tuesday, in comments analysts said showed the country harboured no “illusions” about the possible damaging effects of its rivalry with the US and had little hope of a lasting improvement in ties.

The remarks from Xi came as he chaired a meeting of the National Security Commission, his first since securing an unprecedented third term as leader of China’s ruling Communist Party at its 20th congress in October. Xi heads both the commission and the Chinese military.

He said the country’s security apparatus needed to stay “keenly aware” of the complicated and challenging circumstances facing national security, and correctly grasp major related issues, according to state news agency Xinhua.

The national security issues facing China were “considerably more complex and much more difficult” to deal with, Xinhua reported Xi as saying, as he urged officials to be ready to deal with “worst-case and most extreme scenarios”, so that they could withstand “high winds and waves and even perilous storms”.


Xi’s remarks come as rival powers China and the United States continue to lock horns on many fronts. Both sides have stepped up national security scrutiny, especially in the technology sector, with the US slapping sanctions on a slew of Chinese companies in the past few years citing security concerns.

In March, in a rare public comment on the US tech rivalry, Xi directly named Washington for leading the Western suppression of China.

China recently prohibited its key infrastructure operators from buying products made by US memory chip maker Micron Technology, citing “relatively serious” cybersecurity risks. Chinese security officials have also carried out raids on a few foreign and local consultancy and business intelligence firms.

Minutes from Tuesday’s meeting published by Xinhua said China needed to speed up the modernisation of the national security system and capabilities, to make sure they were practical and effective. The country’s security apparatus was urged to improve oversight of internet data and artificial intelligence, according to the readout.

The meeting also approved the speedy implementation of a nationwide security risk monitoring and early warning system, and stronger public education on national security.

National security was a major part of Xi’s work report opening the 20th party congress in October, when he vowed to strengthen safeguards in key sectors including the economy, major infrastructure, finance and telecoms networks, as well as improve data, biological, resources, nuclear, space and maritime security.


Xi had also sounded a warning then about choppy waters and “dangerous storms” ahead, as he highlighted the challenges and risks facing the country.

According to Xie Maosong, senior fellow at Beijing’s Taihe Institute and a senior researcher at Tsinghua University’s National Strategy Institute, Xi’s latest remarks showed China had “no rosy illusions” about the potentially devastating outcome of the US rivalry and was making serious efforts to prepare for it.

“The ‘worst-case scenarios’ might include a nuclear war, a devastating war that ruins China’s coastal economic belts [or] Western sanctions on China’s energy, finance and food supply,” Xie said.

“The better China is prepared for these, the less likely such scenarios will actually happen.”

Other likely challenges could be “a new pandemic” or “a major earthquake and other disasters caused by extreme weather”, he added.

An unwinnable conflict? The US-China trade war, 5 years on

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said Xi’s remarks meant Beijing was convinced that recent minor improvements in Sino-US relations would be short-lived.

“Xi has named the US as the culprit behind China’s problems,” Wu said.

“Some mainland scholars have also openly expressed pessimism about the Sino-US relationship, saying the deterioration was due to domestic political dynamics in China and the US. No matter how many dialogues, there will be no fundamental improvement [they have said]. I think it is a very honest assessment.”

In a sign of the importance accorded to security work, the commission meeting was attended by three members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s core leadership line-up.

They were Premier Li Qiang, Zhao Leji – chairman of China’s top legislative body, and Xi’s chief of staff Cai Qi, according to Xinhua.
Chinese President Xi Jinping unveils new line-up of country's top decision-making body


Xinhua did not provide details of the role of Cai, whose formal title is director of the General Office of the party’s Central Committee, in the new commission line-up decided at the October congress.

But Xie said Cai’s presence might indicate he had taken over as the chief of the commission’s general office from his chief of staff predecessor Ding Xuexiang, according to past convention.

Ding, who is also a Politburo Standing Committee member, now serves as an executive vice-premier.

Xi proposed the setting up of the National Security Commission in 2013 and has headed it since its inception.

Its meetings are usually attended by the heads of a wide range of government and party bodies for discussions on domestic and foreign security challenges, including sovereignty issues, security, development interests, political security, social stability, and cyber and biosecurity matters.

Cai is no stranger to the commission. He was transferred to Beijing to work as the deputy chief of its general office in March 2014, two months after the party leadership finalised the initial line-up of the powerful agency tasked with streamlining national security coordination across various ministries.

俄罗斯和德国互相关闭领事馆

 

 俄罗斯和德国互相关闭领事馆

俄罗斯上周宣布德籍在俄人数的上限为350人，此举导致一些德国学校和其它机构不得不关闭，作为对此的回应，德国外交部宣布除俄罗斯驻德使馆外，只能再留一处总领馆。

德国外交部周三（5月31日）宣布，作为对莫斯科的报复措施，柏林将吊销俄罗斯五个领事馆之中四个的许可证。此举是在俄罗斯政府将允许留在俄罗斯的德国政府官员（包括在文化机构和学校工作的人员）人数上限设定为350人之后做出的。

德国外交部发言人告诉记者，该措施旨在建立两国之间的"人员和结构对等"。

该发言人表示，俄罗斯在限制德国在该国的存在方面"采取了升级措施"。他说， "这一不合理的决定迫使德国政府大规模削减其在俄罗斯所有领域的存在。"

今年年底之后，俄罗斯只有驻柏林大使馆和另外一个领事馆被允许开设。

"这个决定已于今天传达给俄罗斯外交部。"该发言人说，虽然此举令人遗憾，但乌克兰战争意味着两国之间的许多双边活动"根本没有基础"。

上周六（5月27日），德国外交部表示，德国驻俄罗斯机构的数百名公务员和当地雇员将需要回国或者辞职。

受此限制令影响的人数多达数百。虽然该命令针对领事馆和大使馆官员，但受影响的大多数是歌德文化学院以及德国学校和托儿所的员工。

莫斯科的限制法令意味着，德国驻加里宁格勒、叶卡捷琳堡和新西伯利亚的领事馆将关闭，仅保留德国驻莫斯科大使馆和驻圣彼得堡领事馆。

这一事件反映出自俄罗斯于 2022 年 2 月入侵乌克兰以来，莫斯科和柏林之间的关系进一步恶化。

自1980年代以来印度将无中国官媒记者

 

中印互逐媒体：印度将无中国官媒记者

一个多月以来，中国和印度分别以拒发签证的方式，迫使对方国家的多名记者离境。据媒体报道，在印度的最后两名中国官方媒体记者，因无法继续获得签证而将被迫离开印度。

《华尔街日报》周三（5月31日）援引消息人士报道，新德里方面本月拒绝为在该国的最后两名中国官方媒体记者续发签证，这两位记者分别来自官方媒体新华社和中国中央电视台。知情人士称，这两名中国记者在签证到期后已经离开了印度。其中一些知情人士说，现在印度已经没有中国官方媒体的记者，这可能是至少自1980年代以来的首次。

中国外交部发言人毛宁31日在例行记者会上证实，印方拒绝为中国中央广播电视总台（CGTN）唯一的一名驻印度记者延期签证，迫使其离境。此外，目前中方最后一名驻印度记者的签证也已经过期。

而在中国的印度记者也已几乎"绝迹"。德国之声4月初曾报道，印度最大的报纸之一《印度教徒报》(The Hindu)和印度广播公司(Prasar Bharati)的记者在中国境外旅行时被禁止返回中国。而《印度斯坦时报》（Hindustan Times）的一名记者本月被告知其记者证已被吊销。

5月31日，中国外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上回答有关提问时再次强调："长期以来，中国媒体记者在印度遭受了不公正、歧视性的待遇。"她指出，2017年印方毫无理由地将中国驻印记者签证有效期缩短为3个月甚至1个月，并称，自2020年以来，印方拒不审批中方记者赴印常驻申请。她表示，"面对印方的这种长期的无理打压，中方不得不采取适当的反制措施，维护中方媒体的正当权益"。

被问道这是否意味着中国确实拒绝为印度记者续签签证，毛宁表示，中方愿意继续为印度记者在华工作和生活提供协助和便利。"但是这取决于印方能不能和中方相向而行，为中国在印度的记者提供同样的便利和协助。"
双边关系阴云密布

中印双边关系在2020年6月的边境冲突后陷入紧张势态。同时近年来，印度转而更积极地参与以美国为首的四方安全对话(Quad)，其成员还包括澳大利亚和日本，中国认为该组织企图包围和遏制中国。

今年4月初，中国更改了中印边境的阿鲁纳恰尔邦（Arunachal Pradesh，中国称藏南地区）11个地点的名称，此一所谓"标准化"的措施引起印度强烈不满。

上周，中国缺席了在印度举行的二十国集团(G20)旅游工作组会议。在东道国印度决定将克什米尔地区作为会议举办地之后，中国抵制了该会议。中国外交部称，坚决反对在领土争议地区举办任何形式的G20会议。

禁用TikTok 印度早已先行一步

印中关系恶化也表现在其他方面。印度以数据安全为由，已禁止几十款中国移动应用在印度使用，包括TikTok、WeChat和其他来自中国的全球热门应用，以及多款电脑游戏。这些应用被挡在印度快速增长的市场之外。

受欢迎的记者

《华尔街日报》报道称，驱逐记者事件加剧了中印两国的紧张关系，减少了这两个拥核邻国之间的交流和可预见性。前中国官媒记者、现任北京智库全球化智库(Center for China and Globalization)研究员的王子辰对该报表示，如果有更多中国记者驻印，将有助于消除两国之间的鸿沟，促进对彼此文化和观点的更深层次了解。这位研究员说，这进而可能会减少敌意，促使两国以更和平的方式解决边界争端。

与此同时，中国外交部官网的一篇新闻稿称，5月30日，中国外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松会见了"印度媒体记者玛诺基亚、潘迪和洛塔"，称希望他们此次中国行有助于向印度各界展示客观、真实、生动的中国。报道称ABP电视台《印度之话》栏目播出印度记者中国行第一期节目，吸引超过500万印度民众观看。

 

Estonia Asks For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO

 

  Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO
In Europe, defense ministers and military experts worry that the world is not learning the lessons from Ukraine quickly enough.

BRATISLAVA, Slovakia—When NATO leaders meet for their annual summit in July, Estonia will ask them to consider a “roadmap” for Ukraine to join the alliance, Estonia’s minister of defense said Monday.

“What we have to push in Vilnius is that there has to be a clear understanding [of] what are the next steps for Ukraine,” Hanno Pevkur said at the annual GLOBSEC conference here.

That doesn’t necessarily mean bringing Ukraine into NATO immediately. Pevkur pointed out that even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that winning the war against Russia must come first. But, the Estonian said, it’s time for the alliance to be more direct about its plans.

Pevkur said that’s because Russia’s Vladimir Putin still aims to conquer Ukraine, even if he has reduced his immediate objectives to consolidating his limited territorial gains. But changing politics in Europe and the United States also add urgency.

After July’s meeting in Lithuania’s capital, “the next summit in Washington will be just before the U.S. elections in 2024. So this will be a huge challenge for all of us…What will be the message coming out from Washington? So, I would like to see that we will have a clear roadmap.”

France has similarly pushed for a roadmap for Ukraine’s ascension into NATO to be on the agenda this summer.

NATO deterrence

At GLOBSEC, concern is rising among European military officials and military experts that Western governments aren’t fully prepared for the worst-case scenario: that they will become party to the war. That could happen if Ukraine fails to expel Russians from its territory, said Richard Sherriff, a retired U.K. general who served as Britain's top NATO commander.

“Let's hope that they will be able with one counteroffensive to achieve their military objectives, but we shouldn't assume that,” Sherriff said. “We probably need to expect to see a series of major counteroffensives over a period of maybe a couple of years.

“If [the Ukrainians] fail to achieve their military objectives,” he said, “we in NATO need to be prepared for the worst case, which means we might have to intervene.”

NATO, a defensive alliance, has no mechanism for intervening unless a member country is attacked. Pevkur argued that failure in Ukraine would increase the chance that Russia will mount such an attack.

“When you look at the map of Ukraine, it seems that it's a small part of Ukraine which has been occupied at the moment. In reality, this is the size of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania,” he said.

Pevkur also said NATO moves too slowly to deter attack, in part because the commanders closest to the likely Russian invasion don’t have the necessary authorities to act in their own defense.

The NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s “office or the secretary itself has to have the authority to engage the preliminary actions, because otherwise we will be too slow, otherwise we have to sit somewhere in Brussels, 32 countries—when Sweden will join soon—and make a decision: do we engage Article Five or not. Then, by that time—sorry to say—the Russian army will be already halfway to [Estonia’s capital] Tallinn and we don't have the time. We don't have the strategic depth.”

“This is why we need to have forces in place where they are also used. We need pre-positioned ammunition and we need authorization for…the sector to engage if necessary, and then we can say that we have critical deterrence… regional plans that work and actually deter Russia.”

Joint procurement

On the procurement side, Pevkur said that NATO must increase weapons standardization, in part by encouraging joint acquisitions by alliance members. Many weapons fire 155mm ammunition, he noted, but not all can use the same 155mm shells.

“At the end of the day, what we need to have inside of NATO is the standardization,” he said. “First, standardization; secondly, [more] joint procurements; and thirdly, strong recommendations from the NATO headquarters to do at least regionally joint procurements,” he said.

Camille Grand, a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, agreed.

“At the end of the day what is unacceptable is not that we have different guns. It’s the fact that the artillery shells that we're using cannot be put in each of these guns because we didn't do the homework of making them standard enough, not only not by caliber but so that every artillery shell…should be used on any NATO gun that is available and that should be an absolute requirement,” Grand said.

For Sherriff, the key procurement lesson coming out of Ukraine is simply this: procure faster, like the Ukrainians themselves. He recounted his visit to Ukraine’s new Brave1 innovation and procurement cell.

“It brings together inventors operating out of their workshops and garages, innovators. It brings together investors, the ministers of digital transformation, economy and defense. It brings in the General Staff. And when I said [to Brave1’s director Nataliia Kushnerska], ‘How long do you reckon it's going to take you to [to build a prototype], and what's your aim in terms of getting stuff into service from idea, inception to battlefield?’ She said, ‘I think we're pushing it two months.’ Yeah. Well, don't tell that to the British [Ministry of Defense]. They’re years, light years away.”

Russia And Maskirovka

 Russia And Maskirovka

George Friedman

Soon after Josef Stalin signed a mutual defense pact with Adolf Hitler, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said that Russia was a mystery wrapped in an enigma. Russian military planners were undoubtedly pleased by what they might have taken as praise. One of the foundations of their military doctrine is the principle of maskirovka, or the use of various deceptions and denials to mask their true intentions. Maskirovka doesn’t always work, but when it does, it can utterly transform a battle, even a war.

Trusting in the common perception of the state of the Russian military can be designed to be fatal. I have long wondered about the chaotic structure of Russian forces in Ukraine and about the amount of time and resources Russia devotes to secondary targets. It’s tempting to assume that Moscow is foundering or that it was fated to defeat, but the fact that maskirovka is embedded so deeply in the Russian military psyche makes it necessary to periodically rethink Russian plans and resources. These things are unknown by design, but what if it turns out that the Russian bungling is a ploy, its real force and intention hidden, waiting to strike? When thinking about the Russians, creating a model diametrically opposed to what you believe, and then taking it apart, is essential.

The current consensus is that Russia has lost the organization, resources or trained manpower necessary to do more than hold its ground or perhaps advance with very limited objectives. This view is based on command confusion in which the Russian armed forces are competing with the Wagner Group, rather than commanding it. It would explain the extended battle in Bakhmut – to say nothing of Russia’s general inability to cripple Ukrainian forces and penetrate deeper into Ukraine. Penetration and destruction are the essence of warfare. A divided chain of command could explain the failure, and the inability to repair it could easily lead an enemy to assume that a Russian victory is all but impossible.

Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Russia built the battle of Bakhmut to draw the Ukrainians forward into a more vulnerable position. A smashing defeat of Ukraine there would create a massive crisis in the Ukrainian command and stoke serious tensions with allies. If the disparity of force were sufficient, Russian forces might move decisively to Ukraine’s western border. The purpose of the battle, then, would be to convince Ukraine to carry out a broad attack in the hope of breaking Russia’s will. For Russia, the true goal would not be to end the battle quickly but to significantly weaken Ukraine’s defense of the heartland and to encourage forces planned for the offensive to form into large units. The next step would be massive airstrikes on the concentrations using drones. The key would be the generation of military targets for air attack, followed by a massive, decisive infantry attack into the heartland (the type Russia should have opened with).

To be sure, this scenario is difficult to take seriously. Even if it were all going according to script, the strategy would be compromised by the inability to field large numbers of trained fighters, to protect the transportation of rapid, surprise deployment, and to hide the concentration of forces from Western intelligence. (Doing so is difficult but not impossible. The U.S. and British succeeded at Normandy, and the Germans at the Ardennes, though detection capabilities in World War II were obviously more limited than they are now.)

The critical issue here is the timing of detection relative to the ability of Ukrainian forces to form an attack and disrupt Russian forces. Russian air defense would have to be limited to avoid hinting at a large concentration of other forces. And the infantry would have to move into Ukraine in battle-ready form. The process of moving forward and creating a unified force under coherent Russian command represents the key and most unlikely phase of the operation.

The complexity of the project at all levels convinces me that the Russian command is simply dysfunctional and highly vulnerable to Ukrainian action. If there’s a maskirovka ploy afoot it must have been executed by now. But there is no hint of it. It’s hard to see anything but weakness in the Russian force at the moment.

丹麦宣布未来十年军费增加两倍

  

丹麦宣布未来十年军费增加两倍

丹麦周二（5月30号）宣布，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，它将在未来10年内将其军事支出增加两倍，投资于东部、北大西洋和北极地区。


丹麦首相 梅特-弗雷泽里克森Mette Frederiksen可能是下届北约秘书长人选


丹麦代理国防部长波尔森（Troels Lund Poulsen）在一份声明中说："政府希望通过在未来10年花费约1430亿克朗（约192亿欧元）来大大加强丹麦的国防和安全。”

根据丹麦政府的计划，在2024年，军事开支（在设备、人员、基础设施等方面的投资）将上升到69亿克朗，而今年是67亿，到2033年应该增加两倍，达到192亿（26亿欧元）。

这一增幅所需资金将特别通过取消一天公共假期来获得，尽管有不寻常的抗议运动，但这一措施已经得到批准。

丹麦政府打算到2030年将其国内生产总值的2%用于国防，这是北约设定的目标，而丹麦也是北约的成员之一。

丹麦政府的雄心包括三方面，国防部长指出，其目标仍然是使北极和北大西洋成为一个低压力区。当然，必须保护丹麦，并履行义务为波罗的海的安全承担共同责任。

他也强调： "同时，丹麦必须继续以重要的方式支持乌克兰，我们必须继续积极地、有能力地向世界其他地区输送贡献。我们对欧盟的承诺在这方面发挥着重要作用"。

据法新社，丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森（Mette Frederiksen）已经在周一宣布了对乌克兰的大规模新拨款额，在2023年和2024年增加24亿欧元。弗雷泽里克森被传为下一届北约秘书长可能人选。北约现任秘书长斯特尔滕贝格的任期将于9月底结束

U.S. Navy To Get New Unique Submarine: Virginia SSW

 
U.S. Navy To Get New Unique Submarine: Virginia SSW

The USS Jimmy Carter is widely regarded as the most secretive submarine in the U.S. Navy. It is especially equipped for Seabed Warfare, unreported missions deep below the waves. Now a new seabed warfare submarine, using a Virginia Class hull, is planned.

The USS Jimmy Carter is currently the U.S. Navy’s principal seabed warfare submarine, specially fitted for covert spy missions deep beneath the waves. Now plans are underway to build a follow on special spy submarine using the newer Virginia Class hull.

A single Mod VA SSW (Modified Virginia, Subsea and Seabed Warfare) version of the Virginia Class is expected to be built.

Work is already underway at the famous Electric Boat shipyard in Groton, Connecticut. A basic outline of the design was shared by General Dynamics Electric Boat’s President, Kevin Graney, in a January 2022 at a Connecticut Economic Summit in 2022. Since then some information about the SSW design has slowly emerged in open sources, but naturally the details remain cloaked. According to the Congressional Research Service, a single boat will be procured in the U.S. Navy’s 2024 budget. The calculated cost is $5.1 billion, almost a billion more than the baseline Virginia Class.
 

Seabed Warfare

Seabed warfare has been brought into sharp focus by Russia’s ongoing efforts to map undersea infrastructure. And by the September 2022 with the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic. There is no suggestion that the USS Jimmy Carter was involved in the Nord Stream incident (it wasn’t!). But the attack shows the relevance of these capabilities. Most seabed warfare however is closer to espionage than sabotage. And the American submarines excel.

The history of operations against undersea infrastructure, such as sensor networks, communications and energy infrastructure goes back a long way. And both the U.S. Navy and Russian Navy have strong traditions.

In the 1970s Operation Ivy Bells saw the U.S. Navy tapping Soviet communications networks deep undersea. Tapping the cables which the Soviets thought were safe gave the U.S. valuable insight and intelligence. The first tap, in the Sea of Okhotsk was followed by several others of similar significance but less fame. The USSR only found out about them when a Soviet spy deep in the American intelligence apparatus, Ronald Pelton, betrayed them.

At first the U.S. Navy used a converted cruise missile submarine, USS Halibut. This was followed by USS Seawolf and then USS Parche, both of which were upgraded with extended hulls to carry the specialist equipment. Then in the 2000s one of the new Seawolf class submarines, USS Jimmy Carter, was built with the hull extension already fitted. This submarine becoming the premiere seabed warfare boat of the U.S. Navy. The new specialized Virginia class submarine will augment or succeed USS Jimmy Carter. 

The Virginia SSW Submarine Design

Extract details of the new Virginia SSW submarine are, as we should expect, unclear. Even the USS Jimmy Carter which has been in service almost 20 years remains something of a mystery. However we can expect the new submarine to carry specialist uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs), remote operated vehicles (ROVs) and special operations submersibles.

Some of the vertical launch systems for missiles, known as VPMs (Virginia Payload Modules) will be repurposed for new systems. Additionally the keel beneath them will be extended. Exactly how this will interface with specialist submersibles can only be speculated at.

Russia too has a long tradition of seabed warfare. And relative to even the U.S. Navy, is heavily invested in this area. The largest submarines in service anywhere in the world are Russia’s fleet of specialist submarines. The U.S. Navy’s  seabed warfare capability is likely more sophisticated, but Russia’s is broader and more plentiful.

So if the U.S. Navy wishes to retain any advantage it has, it is natural that it would look to have a successor to the USS Jimmy Carter.

美军斥资50亿造新“海底和海床作战”潜艇 能击沉中共侵台舰队

 

 中共持续加强对台军事威胁，多次宣称“绝不承诺放弃使用武力”进犯台湾，又和侵犯乌克兰的俄罗斯不断深化战略伙伴关系，为因应中共和俄罗斯不断将深海空间军事化，美国正打造有史以来最昂贵的间谍潜艇，将搭载专业的无人水下航行器（UUV）、遥控潜水器（ROV）等工具，在海底执行特殊任务。军事专家说法指称，中共正广泛布置水下感应器网络以监测西太平洋海域美军活动，美国新型潜艇将在台海冲突中发挥收集情报、执行海底防御和进攻行动等重要作用。

 

据美国海军新闻报道，美国海军在2024财政年度预算中，计划以逾50亿美元对维吉尼亚级攻击型核潜艇进行改造，这艘可用于“海底和海床作战”的新潜艇（简称Mod VA SSW）正在康乃迪克州格罗顿的通用动力电船公司（General Dynamics Electric Boat）造船厂进行开发。尽管美国海军尚未公布更多设计细节，外界预测新潜艇将用于增强或接替2005年开始服役的海狼级攻击性核潜艇“吉米·卡特号”（SSN-23），后者是美国海军首屈一指的海底间谍潜艇。

美国兰德公司国防问题高级研究员何天睦（Timothy Heath）受访时透露，改进后的维吉尼亚级攻击型核潜艇，将能够执行情报搜集、特种作战、支持无人水下作战和传统的攻击水面舰艇等任务，而中共目前没有与之一较高下的武器，总的来说“美国在水下作战方面具有强大优势，特别在先进攻击潜艇和弹道导弹潜艇方面。美国潜艇比中共潜艇安静得多，可以发射导弹的射程更远”。

2022年9月由俄罗斯经波罗的海向欧洲输送天然气的北溪天然气管道爆炸，国际社会认为爆炸是人为破坏行为。此外，今年2月连接马祖与台湾的海底电缆连接2次被切断，专家推测是中共为武统台湾进行演练，但目前尚无北京方面蓄意破坏的明确证据。美国前海军部副次长、华府智库“约克镇研究所”（Yorktown Institute）创办人克罗波西（Seth Cropsey）强调，北溪天然气管道遭袭击和台湾马祖断网事件，显示加强海底防卫和进攻能力的重要性，美国的新潜艇将在这个领域展现飞跃性进步。

华府智库“哈德逊研究所”国防概念与技术中心主任克拉克（Bryan Clark）则说，美国的新间谍潜艇在与中共的潜在冲突中非常重要，因为中国正在整个东海和南海安装声纳系统和通信网络，效仿美国在冷战期间铺设的水下声波监听系统（SOSUS），可以探测到美国潜艇进行的导弹或鱼雷发射等行动，他提到：“Mod VA SSW将携带无人驾驶的水下运载工具等系统，这些系统可以干扰、诱骗或摧毁中共的海底感应器，并帮助美国潜艇继续作战，而不那么容易被中共发现”。

今年4月与美国联邦众议院美中战略竞争特别委员会合作，举办台海兵棋推演的华府智库“新美国安全中心”（CNAS）曾在美国国会做证时直指潜艇是美国在台海冲突中最重要的海上打击平台。新美国安全中心指出：“由于美国的攻击潜艇难以被发现，且具有巨大的续航能力，能在冲突开始前就预先部署在第一岛链的海域内。一旦冲突开始，这些潜艇可以提供持久的生存火力，集中击沉中共入侵舰队。”

“新美国安全中心”续指，美军攻击型潜艇使用重型鱼雷击沉中共船只的能力，比其他平台更强，这些潜艇还可以向中共的目标，或登陆台湾的共军部队发射巡航导弹。“哈德逊研究所”的克拉克也表示，在台海冲突中，海底战争将是最关键领域之一，潜艇是美军对抗中共的最重要优势，但北京正努力通过共军的反潜战舰、飞机及其海底感应器网络，来削弱美国潜艇的效用。

China doesn't want the yuan to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency

China doesn't want the yuan to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency

China isn't all that ready for de-dollarization as well. 

    The Chinese yuan is one of the top contenders challenging the USD's dominance as a reserve currency.

    However, Beijing may not be fully supportive of making the yuan the reserve currency of choice.

    Key challenges include Beijing's unwillingness to open its capital accounts or to run a deficit.

A debate over de-dollarization has raged on for the past year, fanned by fears that Washington is weaponizing the US dollar-denominated global financial system against Russia over the Ukraine war.

Even high-profile investors have weighed in. In April, billionaire investor Ray Dalio cautioned that the sanctions that squeezed Russia's dollar currency reserves "increased the perceived risk that those debt assets can be frozen in the way that they've been frozen for Russia."

Consequently, various countries started lining up non-dollar currencies and alternative assets to use in trade and to stash in their reserves.

Enter, the Chinese yuan.


The Chinese currency is having its moment in the sun as a potential challenger to the US dollar-dominated global payments system. As it looks to broaden the use of its currency internationally, China has forged deals with countries including Russia. And while the currency isn't the only greenback challenger, it is the most high-profile contender, against the backdrop of US-China tensions and Beijing's alliance with Russia amid the war.

However, it would be difficult for any asset or currency to unseat the US dollar. As it is, even the use of the euro is a far second to the greenback.

And more importantly, Beijing wouldn't even want the yuan to be the major reserve currency for the world, an expert on China's economy told Insider.

Here are three reasons why even China isn't that keen on de-dollarizing the world economy.

1. China doesn't want to liberalize its currency and allow money to move freely in and out of its economy

Even though China appears keen to upset the global dominance of the US, it only wants to do so on Beijing's terms, says Rory Green, the chief China economist at London-based consultancy TS Lombard.

The People's Bank of China has moved cautiously over the past decade to promote greater use of yuan without disrupting financial security and it's unlikely to upset that dynamic now, Green wrote in a note on April 28.

This stability is maintained through the use of capital controls — a grip on how much foreign money can move in and out of China's economy, which in turn influences the foreign currency exchange rate.

Beijing's policy has typically leaned toward having such controls, as it considers them prerequisites for an independent, sovereign monetary policy, wrote Green.

Because of these controls, "Beijing can never fully liberalize its current account, but it can still pursue RMB internationalization," Green added, referring to the yuan by its official name, the renminbi.

Rather than pushing for the yuan to become the dominant global reserve currency, Beijing is likely to pursue its sphere of currency influence among countries it trades with actively. It's likely to focus on breaking up US dollar dominance in parts of the world instead, Green told Insider.

But there could be some wiggle room on Beijing's position.

"There's always been the option in China to change capital controls. Except, for Beijing, the question has been whether the global environment would support this — are there enough nations who will adopt yuan?" Abishur Prakash, the CEO of The Geopolitical Business, a Toronto-based advisory firm, told Insider.

"Today, the answer is yes, as many nations have already signed on to using yuan, giving China the signal it needs to change gears," he added.

2. China doesn't want to and cannot afford to run a persistent deficit like the US does

The US dollar's position and clout as a reserve currency comes at a cost — a current account deficit for America.

That's because there's more global demand for US dollars than American demand for imports, which are also being paid for in the greenback.

So, the US will need to contend with ever larger amounts of deficit in order to maintain its reserve currency position. This paradox was first put forth to Congress by Yale economist Robert Triffin in 1960.

The drawback to running a current account deficit is that it leaves a country vulnerable to unexpected shifts in global capital flows, per Bloomberg.

As Reuters' John Kemp explained in 2009, the US has been running larger budget and current account deficits than most other countries simply because it's the issuer of the world's principal reserve currency.

"As the global economy expanded, demand for reserve assets increased. These could only be supplied to foreigners by America running a current account deficit and issuing dollar-denominated obligations to fund it," wrote Kemp.

While China is the world's second-largest economy right now, it just cannot afford to run a persistent deficit like the US, said Green.

"China is politically unwilling and economically unable — barring significant structural reform — to run a sustained current account deficit and to provide sufficient supplies of RMB assets globally," wrote Green.

3. Beijing faces many geopolitical risks, so China needs alternative assets

One key challenge for any currency taking on the US dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency is the greenback's dominance.

Right now, even the euro's role is larger than the yuan.

In April, 43% of all global payments made via SWIFT were made in the US dollar, while 32% were made in the euro. Just 2.3% of the SWIFT transactions were made in the yuan.

Meanwhile, the US dollar accounted for the lion's share, or 54%, of global foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

The euro accounted for 20% of the reserves, while the yuan made up just 2.5% of this stash.

This means there's a lack of wide-ranging choices when it comes to reserve assets — which is a problem for the Chinese central bank, wrote TS Lombard's Green.

That's because the institution would have to hold its yuan-denominated bonds in massive amounts — similar to the US Fed, which now holds a huge amount of its assets in Treasury securities.

Given these issues, it's unlikely for the yuan to overtake the greenback, said Green.

These stumbling blocks come on top of other challenges outside China's control, including inertia in the global financial system, Stanford historian Niall Ferguson told CNBC on May 1.

"Geopolitics and China's economic heft is driving – and will continue to drive – RMB adoption for trade and reserve holdings. Greater international use of the RMB will provide channels for sanctions-busting, but the dollar is not under threat," wrote Green.

美日菲将首次举行海防联合演习 应中国在该区域的扩张与军事行为

 

美日菲将首次举行海防联合演习  应中国在该区域的扩张与军事行为

虽然菲律宾官员强调这只是例行演习，但美国、日本和菲律宾的海岸警卫队将首次在南海举行3国海上演习，此举被认为是因应中国在该区域的扩张与军事行为。

随著中国持续在南海进行扩张和军事行为，美国、日本和菲律宾的海岸警卫队本週将在南海举行海上联合演习。这是3国之间首次进行此类演习，以加强海上安全项目的合作。

路透社报道，菲律宾海岸警卫队发言人巴里洛（Armand Balilo）週一（5月29日）表示，6月1日至6月7日，3国将在菲律宾巴丹省附近海域举行演习；这是美国和日本的提议，而澳大利亚也将作为观察员加入。

巴里洛说，菲律宾将派出4艘船只，美国和日本各派1艘参加演习。这次演习旨在改善搜救方面的合作和执法。

自去年小马科斯（Ferdinand Marcos Jr）接替杜特尔特（Rodrigo Duterte）担任菲律宾总统以来，日本、澳大利亚和美国经常谴责中国在南海的军事化，并寻求与菲律宾进行更密切的接触。

今年2月，日本和美国就举行联合海上演习与菲律宾接洽；同月，马尼拉指责中国在南海进行侵略活动。当时，菲律宾指责中国海警船对菲律宾船只使用“军用级激光”，导致菲律宾船员短暂失明。

此外，菲律宾还称有大量疑似民兵船在南沙群岛一带的菲律宾控制区域附近徘徊。对此，中国坚称其海警行动合法，并且是在中国海域内进行。

菲律宾称无关中国

彭博社指出，中国与菲律宾双方在南海争议海域的局势升温，菲律宾海岸警卫队一直处于前线，最近一次与中国船只甚至险些相撞。随著华盛顿与北京的竞争加剧，此次3国的海岸警卫队演习，将是美国与其亚洲盟友合作的最新展现。

近期菲律宾持续加强与美国的防务联盟，今年初增加了开放美军进入的菲律宾基地。4月美国和菲律宾举行了史上规模最大的一次联合军事演习，军演过程中使用了火箭和作战飞机模拟击沉敌舰，演习地点也靠近南海。

针对本次的3国联合演习，菲律宾海岸警卫队的巴里洛说，这项演习将“加强互操作性”，并将包括海上执法培训和机动演习。但他也强调，这项演习与马尼拉与北京的海上争端无关， “这是海岸警卫队之间的例行演习”。

影射习近平嘲讽中国社会 歌曲《红孩儿十八赢》网络爆红

影射习近平嘲讽中国社会 　歌曲《红孩儿十八赢》网络爆红


https://youtu.be/DV224QinmcQ

（台北29日讯）中国摇滚乐队“耳光乐队”的一段演唱视频近日在海外社交平台上热传，唱词中汇集动态清零、东航坠机、丰县铁链女、唐山打人案、胡鑫宇失踪案、村镇银行爆雷等诸多社会热点话题，对中国社会乱象和黑暗时局进行了辛辣地讽刺。

台湾中央社报导，“耳光乐队”成立于1998年，乐队以“新民俗主义”的风格在中国摇滚乐坛上拥有许多听众。目前，在微博上已搜索不到“耳光乐队 红孩儿十八赢”，显示这段演唱视频已经被封禁。据悉，这首歌曲是今年1月份创作。

报导指，这首歌讲述的红孩儿，明眼人看得出是在暗喻中国国家主席习近平。歌词指红孩儿被牛魔王和铁扇公主娇生惯养，所以“300多岁还是个大龄儿童”，且“有严重的被迫害妄想症”；又指“火云洞山神和土地常被他瞎折腾”，暗喻中国人民的山神和土地却“各个都得了斯德哥尔摩症”。

歌词提到了新冠肺炎疫情期间的动态清零、社会上为人诟病的天价结婚聘金、东航坠机惨案至今没有真相、官员男女关系混乱、唐山打人案、因为没做核酸检测来不及就医死亡的兰州3岁童、徒步离厂的富士康大军等，还提及各种涉外新闻，算是回顾了2022年中国社会各种突出的事件。

歌词以台语歌“爱拼才会赢”旋律为背景，末段唱到“和死神抢父母这冬天太煎熬”、“感谢你浪费三年时间保护我”、歌曲最后以“生在这伟大的时代 咱就偷著乐”结尾。

有网民担心乐队安危

从影片中可以看到，现场观众对敏感话题被提及，有强烈的共鸣。很多网民也留言，为乐队的安危感到担心，因为他们是在中国国内触及这些议题的；但他们并没有阻止现场观众拍摄，应该也是有一定的心理准备的。

在中国，尽管面临审查和封杀，但一直都有人以歌曲嘲讽现实或表达不满，创作者可能是专业乐队，也可能是一般民众，听众也以此作为宣泄情绪的出口。

今年3月，帐号“鬼山哥”的网民制作《阳光开朗孔乙己》歌曲，配合先前有关青年高不成低不就的失业话题，嘲讽地批判当今中国社会就业环境不友善，但只能以阳光开朗的形象包装；歌曲很快就在影音平台B站被下架。

此外，根据网上流传的影片，今年3月底，一大群年轻人聚集在贵州地铁大合唱新裤子乐团几年前的歌曲《没有理想的人不伤心》，歌词“我不要在失败孤独中死去，我不要一直活在地下里”让许多人用力唱和。外界认为，经历清零3年管控、社会经济发展又不如以往的年轻人，对这首歌特别有共鸣。

日前，脱口秀演员李昊石的演出被指侮辱军人，公司被巨额罚款，他本人也面临牢狱之灾。外界关注涉及现实负面议题或以嘲讽为特色的艺文创作，在中国是否会更加缺乏发声空间。

抗议清真寺中国化 中国云南爆警民冲突

 

中国官方强调宗教建筑要突出中国风格，清真寺展开“去阿拉伯化”。云南省玉溪市通海县纳家营清真寺本月27日上午遭官方拆除阿拉伯式外观，引起当地穆斯林不满，进而与维持秩序的警员发生激烈冲突。通海县警方证实事件，并且发通告促参与抗议者自首。

https://youtu.be/7g18YUZ9NvY

https://twitter.com/i/status/1662336999838167040

https://twitter.com/i/status/1662341944377311234
据香港《星岛日报》报导，网传影片显示，大批武警持盾与民众对峙，示威人群企图冲入清真寺被拦下，有人向警员抛水瓶，其后一群穿着迷彩色军服的人抵达现场，引起大量民众围观。另有影片显示，武警暂时撤离后，示威人群进入清真寺并拉倒铁架。

网传这次事件或涉及强拆，但也有消息指清真寺擅自占用村委会土地。

官方发出通知，要求有关人员自首。（图取自网络）

通海县公安局、法院、检察院周日晚联合发布《关于敦促相关违法犯罪嫌疑人投案自首的通告》，称“2023年5月27日，通海县纳古镇发生一宗严重妨害社会管理秩序的案件，造成恶劣社会影响。目前，公安机关已依法立案侦查。”

《通告》称，6月6日前，相关组织参与者主动投案自首、如实供述违法犯罪事实的，可以依法从轻、减轻处罚。《通告》还称，对检举揭发他人违法犯罪行为、提供重要线索等立功表现的，可以依法从轻或减轻处罚，有重大立功表现的，可以依法减轻或免除处罚。

有知名爱国博主发文表示，根据2019年的一份行政处罚决定书，纳家营清真寺属于未经批准的非法建筑。（图取自推特/李老师不是你老师）

涉事的云南通海县纳家营清真寺初建于13世纪末，由时任云南行省平章政事哪速拉丁主持肇建，其后在1722年完成扩建，有600多年历史。现时的建筑2004年落成，楼高4层，有穹顶及4座礼塔，内部可容纳逾3000人。2018年6月4日，被定为第3批通海县文物保护单位。

近年来，中国当局要求宗教“中国化”，新建的阿化风格清真寺，大都被要求恢复成原先中国殿堂式的传统风格。

韩国成为世界最大军火商之一

 

韩国成为世界最大军火商之一

路透社首尔消息称，韩国正通过其史上最大的一笔即与波兰达成的一笔高达 137 亿美元的军火交易，为跃升全球军售大国奠定基石。韩波两国的军火公司也都希望这将满足欧洲未来对武器的需求。


路透社援引韩国国防部指出，随西方国家急于军援乌克兰，以及朝鲜、台海、南海等区域紧张升级，韩国的军售从2021年的72.5亿美元跃升至2022年的超过170亿美元。
 

路透社指出，韩国去年与北约重要成员波兰的军火交易，包括数百套Chunmoo多管火箭、K2战车、K9自走炮和FA-50战机。这笔军售的价值和武器数量，就算放在全球几大军火大国中来看，也相当耀眼。

据韩国和波兰官员表示，两国的伙伴关系有助他们夺下乌克兰战争以外的欧洲武器市场。首尔能比其他国家更快提供高质量武器，华沙则提供制造能力与进入欧洲的销售管道。

路透社采访了13名包括直接参与交易人士在内的公司主管和政府官员，他们说这笔交易经由公开与私人的国际伙伴关系和财团拓展版图，为韩国实现晋身全球最大武器供货商之一的雄心打好基础。

参与波兰交易的韩华航天（Hanwha AeroSpace）一名负责人吴桂焕（Oh Kyeahwan，音译）说：“捷克、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克、芬兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛等国以往只考虑在欧洲买国防产品，但现在更多人知道，可以用低廉的价格向韩国公司购买并快速拿到货。”

韩国的军工企业向来都不揭露武器单价，且通常武器必须同支持军车和零配件一起出售。

过去的一年里，韩国发射了第一枚国产太空火箭，见证了国内设计的KFX战机的首飞，并宣布了数十亿美元的交易。对此，欧洲一家防务公司的一位匿名高管告诉路透社：“对于大多数其他国家来说，这一个10年的研发进程”，他表示："我们已经低估了韩国很长时间了。"

据NH Research & Securities公司的研究显示，韩华航天在全球自走炮市场有55%市占率，加上波兰这笔交易后，估计提高至68%。

波兰国企「波兰军备集团」（PGZ）主管科摩列克（Lukasz Komorek）表示，这笔军火交易牵成韩国与波兰公司能连手，以生产武器、维修战机和为日后军售其他欧洲国家建立架构。

首尔与华沙两地的官员表示，这将包含让波兰取得许可制造韩国军备。目前计划是售予波兰820辆战车里的500辆及672辆自走炮中的300辆，从2026年开始将在波兰的工厂生产。

不过，英国咨询研究机构Agency Partners LLP的航天与国防分析师杜沙（Sash Tusa）对路透社表示，虽然韩、波国防产业关系良好，长期的计划恐仍有障碍，像政治风向改变可能降低自走炮和战车等武器需求。

杜沙还说，就算生产和需求保持稳定，欧洲国家也可能希望比照波兰的模式与韩国做生意，也就是能创造就业机会并振兴产业的共同生产协议。

除了欧洲市场，路透社还披露，韩国正在与印度尼西亚开发其自主研发的KFX战机，波兰领导人也表示对该项目感兴趣。马来西亚今年购买了近10亿美元的FA-50战斗机，而首尔正在争取赢得一向120亿美元的合同，以便为澳大利亚提供该国陆军所需的战车储备。

“亚洲国家认为我们是一个非常有吸引力的国防交易伙伴，因为我们都在寻求对冲不断上升的紧张局势”， 首尔的一位外交官说。“我们是美国的盟友，但不是美国的。”

泰国媒体：越南和菲律宾微妙亲美

 

 泰国媒体：越南和菲律宾微妙亲美



 

中美超级大国在东南亚地区展开影响力较量，南海情势再度紧张。随着美国在东南亚地区加大耕耘力度，越南和菲律宾在这场平衡力量游戏中愈发被赋予关键作用，泰国媒体认为东盟未来还将面临更加严峻的外部挑战。

泰通社报道，中国与菲律宾船舰近日因各自在南沙群岛海域设置航标而一度在海上发生对峙。与此同时，越南外交部罕见发表将驶入专属经济区内的中国船舰“驱离”的声明，随即在两国之间引发“外交风波”。媒体观察发现，后期以来，菲律宾和越南两国越来越多地卷入与中国在南海的领土争端。中国方面则敦促东盟尽快完成《南海行为准则》（Code of Conduct）。东南亚媒体分析指出，南海正在成为超级大国之间或者中国与该地区国家之间“可能爆发冲突的热点”，能否降温取决于相关国家对于《南海行为准则》的态度。据悉，在南海地区跟中国存在主权重叠争议的国家还有马来西亚、文莱、印尼等东南亚成员国。

中国与东盟于2002年签署《南海各方行为宣言》，此后不断就海上行为规则进行磋商，以推进签署和落实《南海行为准则》。但分析认为，这仅只是一份不具备约束力的国际公约。继此前各方指责北京在南海“填海造岛”以后，越南、菲律宾不断抱怨北京在南海采取“海上危险性动作”。而北京方面则指责相关国家不断在争议海域做出宣示主权的挑衅行为。

泰国资深媒体人素提猜（Suthichai yoon）透过专栏分析指出，当前菲律宾与越南正受到来自北京和华盛顿的压力，这两个国家正竭力在中美之间保持平衡，试图争取更大的自身利益。尤其值得注意的是，越南和美国的关系正出现微妙的变化，这一变化进入了国际外交官的观察视野，越南未来将如何在中美之间保持平衡？地区国家向美国靠拢的步伐究竟该迈多大，才能遏制中国的影响力？一旦越南出现战略转变势必对其他东盟成员国产生影响，因而特别值得关注。

观察指出，越南一方面加强与美国的安全合作，但明显有节制的控制合作空间，避免被华盛顿拉入对抗中国的阵营。另一方面，越南对中国同样抱持谨慎态度，特别是在政治和安全方面。双方之所以在强化经济合作和投资方面保持一致，这是中越两国的实质利益所在。

中国新任总理李强履职后首次跟外国领导人打电话交流，中越总理对话强调两国关系主基调是“和睦相邻”的“兄弟与同志”情谊。两国应该“继续采取切实措施促进亚太地区的稳定与繁荣。”这也是3月底中越两国外长电话所强调的内容和重点。为了表达诚意，中国领导人习近平还亲自确认了北京与越南建立稳定的供应链事宜。可见在与华盛顿的地缘政治博弈中，北京一直不遗余力地扩大与周边邻国的关系范围。

随着华盛顿对越南和东盟的兴趣愈发浓厚，美国加大了拉拢东南亚国家的力度，显而易见的是美国总统拜登（Joe Biden）和越南共产党总书记阮富仲（Nguyen Phu Trong）通过电话达成“强化关系”和“相邀互访”的协议。美国强调支持一个"独立、自强及繁荣"的越南。值得强调的是，越南不仅拥有蓬勃发展的经济，而且在南海的战略位置尤为重要。越南跟中国之间的南海领土主权争议，迄今仍然无解。目前在俄罗斯受到西方国家孤立亟待扩大亚洲盟友圈的现状下，越南与俄罗斯之间的盟友关系结合得更为紧密。日本也是最早与越南建交的国家之一，双方保持重要战略伙伴关系，两国高层互访与民间交流频繁。越南同时加入了日本主倡的《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）以及中国支持的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP），越南还被美国和日本认可为“自由开放的印太”倡议的重要伙伴之一。

泰国媒体透露，自2018年以来，美国几乎每年都向越南派遣巡逻艇。在2017年至2021年期间，华盛顿向河内交付了两艘汉密尔顿级巡逻舰（Hamilton-class cutter），这是美国海岸警卫队中最大的舰艇，相信未来还会有第三艘巡逻舰抵达越南。在过去几周以来，越南和美国的高级外交官在华盛顿开会讨论政治和安全问题，“透过海上安全合作提高其海上执法能力”显然是双方加强合作的目标领域。华盛顿计划将美国过剩防御物资的一部分船舰提供给美国在印太地区的盟友，以支持提高军事和安全现代化。

不仅如此，美国还加快了与菲律宾、日本、澳大利亚和韩国深化友谊的步伐。菲律宾今年初允许美军使用其境内更多的军事基地。美国驻菲律宾大使馆透露，5月15-26日期间，来自美国海岸巡防训练队、日本海上保安厅行动队（MCT）、马来西亚、越南、泰国以及菲律宾的海上巡逻队员在巴拉望省（Palawan）公主港市（Puerto Princesa）举行海上执法登船联合培训课程。这次由美国国务院提供经费的培训计划旨在协助南海周边国家强化海上安全行动力。今年4月以来，美国、日本、菲律宾三国持续执行海上巡逻。菲律宾与中国近期分别在南海争议海域设置浮标，各自宣誓对南沙群岛的主权。导致南海紧张情势进一步升高。马尼拉国家安全顾问最新表态，菲律宾将会监控中国的浮标，但避免与对方发生冲突。

菲律宾总统小马科斯（Ferdinand Marcos Jr.）上台后先后走访了北京和华盛顿。这被看作是另一位在中美关系之间走钢丝绳的东南亚国家领导人。小马科斯透露近期正在跟法国讨论采购第一艘潜艇，用于强化菲律宾海军未来的外部防卫能力。

美国否认在泰国设军事基地

近日泰国民间风传美国拟在泰国建立军事基地并且干预了泰国大选。美国驻泰国大使馆发言人福克斯（Nicole Fox）近日录制视频传送给当地媒体，澄清美国在泰国没有军事基地，强调华盛顿并没有讨论在泰国建立军事基地的议题。坊间传闻称美国亟待通过设在泰国北部的新领事馆以替代此前因美中关系恶化而关闭的成都领事馆所扮演的地区角色。

关于美国渗透并干预泰国2023 年选举的消息，美国外交官澄清华盛顿尊重泰国君主立宪制，重申美国不支持任何一方，而仅只是关注民主进程，并期待与来自民主进程的新政府合作。美国否认在过去的选举中资助主张自由民主的泰国政党。泰国5月14日举行全国大选，备受年轻人追捧的前进党（Move Forward Party）获得最多选票，目前已跟七个亲民主政党组成了政治联盟（MOU），但该党党魁披塔（Pita Limjaroenrat）能否出任总理却充满了变数，因为这需要国会上下两院（750议席）半数以上的支持。泰国下议院500席来自人民选举，上议院250席来自政府委任。换句话说，现任上议员全数来自现任看守总理巴育（Prayut Chan-ocha）的任命。面对学界对“军人干预政治”的担忧，败选后的巴育承诺将会确保新政府顺利过渡，并在此期间努力提振经济。泰国新内阁最迟今年8月初亮相。

大选后组阁可能性最大的泰国前进党周五对外界公布执政后的“3R” (Revive, Rebalance & Recalibrate)对外政策，强调“复兴、再平衡和重新调整”三项策略。矢志以中等强国姿态在区域内扮演积极角色，包括协助化解缅甸危机，帮助缅甸与国际社会建立人道主义和经济联系。另一方面，缅甸国防军副总司令梭温（Soe Win）针对泰国前进党的评论称，这是一个亲西方且支持恐怖主义的政党。

中国拒绝接受和其他国际债权人一样的本金折价

 

 主权债务危机：“中国拒绝接受和其他国际债权人一样的本金折价”


国际经济学教授安妮·克鲁格(Anne Krueger)近日在法国《世界报》的专栏中，谴责北京当局阻碍贫穷国家债务重组机制的运作。她并指出，中国与美国的紧张关系阻碍了分歧的消除。


安妮·克鲁格是世界银行前首席经济师、是国际货币基金组织的前副总裁。同时，安妮·克鲁格也是约翰霍普金斯大学的国际经济学教授。

安妮·克鲁格在其专栏文章中写道，一年前，斯里兰卡的经济危机曾成为媒体的头条新闻。其实，当时，危机已经持续了好几个月。严重的燃料短缺使人们无法上班，消费品也无法被分发。进口几乎停止，药品和其他必需品非常稀缺，甚至人们根本都是无法获得。去年7月份的时候，饥饿的人们冲进了总统府，而此时，总统已经逃离了斯里兰卡。

然而，直到2023年3月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)才获得了其董事会的批准，可以向斯里兰卡提供贷款，从而向斯里兰卡运送必需品。可是，国际货币基金组织从其董事会那里获得的，还不是真正的绿灯，因为国际货币基金组织的董事会给贷款的发放附上了条件：难对付的债权人--也就是中国--要接受债务重组。斯里兰卡并不是唯一一个等待资金的国家，《经济学人》杂志报道说，有21个贫穷国家或者是违约或者是在等待他们的债务重组。

安妮·克鲁格表示，没有及时向斯里兰卡发放贷款，这不能怪罪于国际货币基金组织。国际货币基金组织的章程规定，只有在可持续经济活动的恢复有保证的情况下，该组织才能够发放贷款。如果债务负担过重，所有债权人都必须接受本金的减少，否则，新贷款就是用来支付利息了。在大多数的情况下，同时还需要调整负债国的公共政策，以便取得更好的效果。

迫切需要达成协议

安妮·克鲁格指出，就斯里兰卡，资金迟迟不能拨付的原因，是中国拒绝接受和其他债权人一样的本金折扣。中国的双边贷款现在占到穷国政府借贷的近一半。当负债国无法偿还中国债务的时候，中国通常会提供新的贷款来为负债国的偿债义务融资，从而让欠款的数额又增加了……

过去，官方债权人的债务是由国际债权组织--巴黎俱乐部来重组的。巴黎俱乐部的成员国有美国、日本、法国等国家。在国际货币基金组织评估负债国的宏观经济形势并规定负债国该进行怎样的政策改革的同时，巴黎俱乐部和私人债权人则开会商定债务重组计划。在收到负债国确实会进行必要改革的保证后，国际货币基金组织就会随后批准债务重组计划并发放资金。现在，由于中国是个很大的债权人，所以，上述过程正在碰壁。

诚然，这一传统的方法遭到一些人的批评，批评者们对一些穷国所欠的利息超过他们用于卫生和教育的金额表示遗憾。但是，如果钱被用于生产，负债国的债务就有可能会是更加可持续的。韩国在1960年代时，每年的借款约占其国内生产总值的10%，其偿债的成本占GDP的百分比实际上下降了。

安妮·克鲁格强调，国际货币基金组织一直是、也必须继续是最后的贷款人，它也是评估负债国的政策变化是否会带来令人满意的经济复苏的关键权威机构。

安妮·克鲁格还表示，现在迫切需要达成一项协议，以改善国际社会对紧急情况的回应。比如，中国可以加入巴黎俱乐部，以换取美国取消对中国产品施加的关税，或者是重启世界贸易组织的争端解决机制。安妮·克鲁格说，我们必须迅速采取行动，世界上的穷人不应该为世界最大债权人之间的分歧付出代价。

中共芯片制造“梦碎” 爆背后秘辛挖人才烧光上百亿元人民币

 

大陆手机大厂OPPO已终止旗下自研芯片哲库（ZEKU）业务，3000名员工就地失业，震撼半导体圈。大陆媒体财新撰文指出，哲库在短短4年间，烧光上百亿元人民币（折合约新台币440亿），失败的关键包括高薪挖角、成本高昂导致财务方面难以为继，加上这些人才到OPPO后，内部融合不顺，导致公司内耗问题严重。

根据财新报导，哲库过去为壮大自身，祭出高薪从联发科、高通、紫光展锐、华为海思等大举挖人，但却浮现管理问题。

多名哲库员工透露，这些人才到OPPO后，常以小团队形式加入哲库，因派系林立，常发生意见不同或争抢资源内斗，进而导致一批人离职。另一名哲库早期员工表示，哲库内斗严重，但高层坐视不管，似乎不觉得这是问题，以致公司内耗严重。

另根据北京商报报导，尽管哲库以及OPPO方面对解散原因未多加说明，不过市场猜测，因自研芯片成本过高，尤其在人才招揽上不惜重金，最终导致财务上难以为继。一位毕业于北科大的张先生透露，身边有学长跳槽到哲库IC设计职位，一年能够拿到50万元人民币（折合约220万元台币）以上的薪资，不料只拿了一年高薪，公司便解散了。

俄议员：克里姆林宫“将阿拉斯加夷为平地”！

 

 乌克兰内政部长顾问格拉申科（Anton Gerashchenko）27日在推特分享一段影片并疾呼“注意了，阿拉斯加”，影片中可见，俄罗斯前陆军指挥官、国家杜马议员古鲁耶夫（Andrey Gurulyov）近日在俄罗斯电视节目上宣称，俄军有能力将距离俄罗斯最近的美国阿拉斯加州夷为平地，不过随即就被美国网友吐槽：“他们会发现我们给乌克兰的武器并不是我们所拥有最好的。”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1662174358217867268

从曝光的节目片段可以看到，谈及乌俄战争时，古鲁耶夫指责以美国为首的西方阵营持续军援乌克兰。接着他建议，俄当局应该在距离美国阿拉斯加最近的俄罗斯城市部署更多导弹，先发制人发动袭击，让美国感到害怕，古鲁耶夫呛：“我们能用一切可以想像的方式瞄准阿拉斯加，阿拉斯加将被夷为平地”。他还列举多种类型导弹，声称“不需要太多，几个旅的战力就足够了”。

国外网友纷纷留言回应：“好吧，如果他们公然希望人们害怕他们，那么他们就不能尝试打‘俄罗斯恐惧症’牌”、“几个旅？？？？哈哈哈哈哈哈！他们花了将近一年的时间和十万名士兵才拿下乌克兰平原上的一个小镇”、“好吧，阿拉斯加是北约的领土，我认为如果他们这样做，他们不会过得很好。”

还有网友留言说：“尝，不会对任何美国领土造成任何实际危险。”、“我们这里应有尽有。F-15、16、35、22。主要的远程导弹防御系统。”、“他们会发现我们给乌克兰的最好的武器并不是我们拥有的最好的。”、“他们不太了解美国人，是吗？日本人在第二次世界大战中犯过同样的错误”。

纽西兰议员明访台 深化双边关系与交流

 

 纽西兰议员明访台　深化双边关系与交流



（台北28日讯）台湾外交部周日表示，纽西兰国会行动党（ACT New Zealand）副党魁范维尔登议员及国防事务发言人麦克道尔议员应邀于周一至6月1日访问台湾，外交部表达诚挚欢迎之意。

台湾中央社报导，根据新闻稿，两名国会议员访台期间，将拜会外交部长吴钊燮，出席政务次长田中光款宴，并将拜会国家安全会议、原住民族委员会、行政院经贸谈判办公室与经济部国际贸易局等，就双边共同关切议题深入交换意见。

台湾外交部指出，纽西兰国会于今年3月29日首度成立“国会跨党派台湾友谊小组”（All-Party Parliamentary Group on Taiwan），行动党党魁西摩议员、副党魁范维尔登议员及国防事务发言人麦克道尔议员均为友谊小组重要成员。

台湾外交部进一步说明，5月16日友谊小组两名共同主席，国家党奥康纳议员及劳工党利瑞议员代表全体成员签署联名函，公开呼吁纽西兰政府及国会支持台湾参与世界卫生组织（WHO）及出席世界卫生大会（WHA）。

台湾外交部强调，纽西兰行动党2名国会议员这次访台，以具体行动展现对台湾的支持，台湾政府与人民对此相当感谢，台湾及纽西兰是共享民主、自由、人权及法治的理念相近伙伴，双方在各领域深化友好关系。

台湾外交部提到，今年是《台纽经济合作协定》（ANZTEC）签署10周年，双边贸易额突破30亿纽元（83亿4500万令吉），台湾已成为纽西兰第6大货品出口市场。台湾与纽西兰将持续在既有坚实基础上，进一步深化两国友好关系与双边交流。

北约东京开设办事处 - 中国央视对外电视推特办民意调查 结果称大翻车了

 

北约东京开设办事处 -  中国央视对外电视推特办民意调查   结果称大翻车了

北约拟在日本东京成立在亚洲联络办公室，中国对此坚决反对，中官媒《环球电视网》近日透过推特进行大外宣举办关于北约于日本设点的意见投票，结果大翻车！至今天下午5时，投票支持高达85.3%，投票“我强烈反对”的仅14.7%。目前该投票还未下架。


据自由时报今天报道称，北约拟于日本设联络点，中国官媒《环球电视网》26日在推特发起投票，询问网友“是否支持北约在日本开设连络办公室的计划”，结果大翻车。有墙外人甚至投票与留评论称应开在台湾！

北约拟于东京设立联络办公室的消息，日前均获北约和日本官员证实，引发外界热烈讨论，中国、俄罗斯、北韩等国均跳脚指责北约将触手深入亚太，威胁地区安全。中国《环球电视网》26日于推特发起的投票，选项中有“我强烈反对”和“我支持”。

据该报道，截至28日下午5点为止，该民意调查选择“我支持”的推特网友高达85.3%，投下“我强烈反对”的仅为14.7%。

该报道称，目前该投票还未下架。

据自由时报称，推特上推人纷纷在评论区开酸，“怎么没有‘强烈支持’这个选项？”、“中国共产党到底哪来的勇气问外国人这问题？”、“我不只支持北约在日本设点，更支持在台湾也开一个办公室”、“比起日本，台湾更是一个理想的地点”、“北约也应该在台湾开设，气死你中国”。

消息没有提及中国媒体报道是否涉及了此推特调查和已有结果。

 

欠薪裁员与关闭，中国工厂罢工抗议成倍增长

据国际通讯（Courrier international）周刊网站 5 月 26 日报道，受订单下降的影响，在中国，雇佣大量人员的工厂正在搬迁和裁员。 据专门研究社会运动的网站「中国劳工通讯」(China Labour Bulletin，CLB) 报道，反对拖欠工资的罢工和抗议无偿裁员的示威活动正在增加。

 

这篇报道写道，据「中国劳工通讯」(CLB) 称，中国工厂的抗议和罢工活动正在增加。 2023 年第一季度，该网站记录了 108 次抗议活动，是 2022 年第四季度的十倍，也是 2022 年全年的两倍。

位在香港的「中国劳工通讯」指出，这些示威行动都集中在出口行业，首先是电子产品，其次是服装、玩具和汽车。 公司拖欠工资、奖金和社会保险给付，以及无经济补偿的工厂关闭或搬迁，则是导致问题的所在。

「中国劳工通讯」忆及，2008 年的雇佣合同法增订了允许离职的条件和期限，以及公司发生重大变化例如裁员补偿等条例。

「中国劳工通讯」续指，但随着时间的推移，资方经常“通过安置机构招聘”，以规避签订合同的义务 ，让劳方自己承担责任。

趋势：曾经火爆的工厂现今欠发工资

报道强调出，在重庆、深圳或郑州，3 月份有报道称富士康发生劳资纠纷，这家台湾公司向苹果分包生产智能手机。 2022 年，郑州新冠疫情突爆，富士康员工拒绝遵守禁足令的出逃潮，引起全球关注。根据在社交网络上收集的证词报道，该公司强迫工人从郑州工厂转移到中国其他城市，甚至转移到印度。

其他公司，例如广州南沙经济技术开发区的一些工厂，几个月来都没有支付员工薪水而关门大吉。「中国劳工通讯」根据社交网络上发布的照片​​和评论表示，工厂关闭引发了 2 月底在该区市政厅前的示威活动。

「中国劳工通讯」网站的报道还让人想起纺织行业，以及最近将员工人数从 10,000 人减少到 1,700 人，然后于 2023 年 1 月突然关门的东莞GOGO制衣工厂。这间“内衣集中地广东东莞最大的内衣制造商” 宣布“在订单下降的影响下”关闭，同时也没有向被解雇的工人提供任何补偿。工人们抗议这一做法不符合公司在员工待遇方面的良好声誉。

对此案例「中国劳工通讯」表示，他们看到了一种趋势，即：许多处于支付工资、社会保险和法律津贴困境中的工厂，这些厂家从前在员工待遇方面长期享有良好的声誉。