FCPO - The Market May Get Listless - 1/6/2014

Price went down to test the middle band on the last trading day of 2013 and missed my stop by 1 point. On the same day price went closed above the top band.  With that I moved my stop upward to the top band and was immediately stopped out on the next day when price came down again and closed below the top band. I have not engage any new trade as there was no flesh buy or sell signal.

The MACD and Stochastic remain positive and rising. The DMI also remain positive but the gap between D+ and D- is closing up fast. The falling D+ and fast rising D- are telling us the buying is diminishing and the selling has been getting stronger. The ADX has begun to fall again which is indicating the end of the prior trend. As it may goes below the 20's signal line by the coming week, we may be witnessing the beginning of another listless market again.

The weekly chart remains murky as the Stochastic is negative while the MACD is positive and rising. Though price stays above the top band which is positive for the bull but the Japanese Candlestick is a Doji Star which is one of those undecided class of Candlesticks. The ADX has begun to rise but I would not get too exciting about it yet unless price can break above its recent fractal high of 2692.

I think the market is stuck in another listless market for the time being. For the short term trading, I would buy again if price can go above 2669 or sell if price goes below 2582. Since there is little trend, I would use the prior day high/low as stop after entering in a new trade.

FKLI - The Holiday Mood Dissipates - 1/6/2014
 
I bought in last Monday when price went above the previous Friday's signal day high. As the Stochastic was already inside the overbought zone so I took the tighter stop approach and place it at the prior day low. The trade did not do well as price began to collapse on last Thursday. My stop was hit and the position was closed off. A new sell signal was flashed on last Friday as price collapsed further and went below the middle band which is the de facto 20 days moving average. The signal  is confirmed by the Stochastic and MACD which have turned negative. I would sell when if price goes below 1832 on the coming week.

The DMI is still staying positive but the gap between the D+ and D- is closing fast and we may see it turning negative by the coming week. Please take note the D- is rising fast, this is telling us the selling force is strong. The ADX has already turned down, this is confirming that the prior trend may has already ended. The prior trend is still considered as a bull cycle though its strength was laughable.

One major item to take note would be there is a negative divergence at the Stochastic. Though such occurrence may not be as powerful as those appear at the MACD, but I would still pay attention to them. At times, they also tend to bring in hugely profitable trades.

There are 2 major items at the weekly chart that are not too pretty for the bull. First is the Stochastic which is inside the overbought zone. Second is a large black body Japanese Candlestick which fully engulfed the previous Candlestick. (the current candle's real body contains the previous week's Candle's real body) This is usually extremely bearish as it may signifies a major reversal. At present, the other indicators are all still positive and the ADX is still rising. With these, I would have to wait for the coming week to confirm whether the bear has returned or this is merely a hiccup inside a bull cycle. So I would watch the top band support of 1832. Any breach of that level most probably bring out more selling.

As like I said in the past, I see nothing bullish about the country's economy. I think it is  high time that we should go and embrace a real restructuring and experience the pains that usually come with them. The more we delay changes, the more painful it is going to be and it may even come to a point when such exercise is beyond our ability. I think the multiple bearish divergences at the chart may just pointing at the pain that is coming.

Ah Jib Goh's Son Fights Back 

Lawyer For “Wolf Of Wall Street” Malaysian Backer Threatens Blogger With Lawsuit Over Critical Report

A lawyer for Red Granite Pictures, whose CEO Riza Aziz is the step-son of Malaysia’s prime minister, accuses longtime Malaysia critic Clare Rewcastle Brown of pushing a “political agenda” in asking about the source of Aziz’s wealth. posted on January 4, 2014 at 1:01pm EST

Rosie Gray BuzzFeed Staff

Joey McFarland, left, and Riza Aziz of Red Granite Pictures Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times / MCT

WASHINGTON — Lawyers for the financial backers of the new Martin Scorcese movie The Wolf of Wall Street are threatening to sue a blogger who wrote about the film’s connection to the step-son of Malaysia’s prime minister.

A lawyer for Red Granite Pictures, a film production company whose CEO is Riza Aziz, the son of the Malaysian prime minister’s wife, sent a lengthy legal notice to blogger Clare Rewcastle Brown after she published stories about the connection between Aziz and the movie and questioned where Aziz’s money comes from, implying that the film was at least partly financed by money obtained via government corruption.
The letter, which Brown shared with BuzzFeed, goes on for five pages in elaborate language and accuses Brown of writing an “irresponsible, shoddy, malicious screed that was clearly concocted by a writer or writers (and/or editor or editors) intent on pressing a transparent, political agenda”:

The letter demands that Brown retract the piece and also get other media outlets who wrote about the piece to retract their versions, or face litigation. The lawyer, Sunny Brenner, also threatens to “communicat[e] with other media organizations and/or other persons and entities regarding the falsehoods in the Article and the irresponsibility of Sarawak Report.”

Brown, a sister-in-law of former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, is an independent journalist and leading critic of the Malaysian government and has been the subject of a denial-of-service attacks as well as being barred from entering Malaysia in July.
In her coverage of the film and Aziz’s involvement with it, Brown wrote that Aziz’s mother, the wife of prime minister Najib Razak, was promoting the film in Malaysia, a Muslim country, despite its R-rated content heavy on sex and drugs.
“How Riza Aziz emerged as a major bankroller of Hollywood movies is of obvious interest,” Brown wrote. “Could it be linked to his family position and circle of associates?”
Aziz and his partner, Joey McFarland, gave an interview to the Hollywood Reporter in which he said “I will say that I have money invested in the company. It shows that I have skin in the game and am committed from a financial point of view. We also have a group of investors, mainly from the Middle East and Asia.”
A friend of Aziz’s was quoted in the Malaysia Gazette saying that Aziz had “managed to break the monopoly of the Jews in the world of film in Hollywood” and that “it is possible Riza will be the first Malaysian to be nominated for a Golden Globe Award and the prestigious Oscars. Who knows, one day Riza could pave the way for film directors in the country for directing films in Hollywood, as well as encouraging local actors making a name in there.”
Brown’s report has reverberated in the Malaysian opposition press, with multiple outlets calling for Aziz to clarify the sources of his income.
It has resulted in a report in Free Malaysia Today that a Malaysian internal revenue board is investigating Aziz for his purchase of a multi-million dollar New York apartment.
A lawyer for Red Granite Pictures didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

伟大祖国有姿势无实际 再次向美帝求助

伟大祖国有姿势无实际 - 美国破冰船前往南极营救雪龙号

“北极星号”是目前世界破冰能力最强的破冰船之一

一艘美国海岸警备队破冰船星期日（1月5日）从澳大 利亚出发前往南极海域营救被厚冰围困中国“雪龙号”破冰船以及俄罗斯“绍卡利斯基院士”南极考察船。
美国“北极星号”破冰船据信是当今世界破冰能力最强的破冰船之一。

美国海岸警备队发布声明称，此次行动是相应1月3日由澳大利亚、俄罗斯以及中国联合发布的求救呼吁。
“绍卡利斯基院士”号考察船12月24日起就被厚冰围困在南极联邦湾，“雪龙号”本周 早些时候前往搭救被困人员后也被困。
目前被营救的52名游客、记者和科研人员正搭乘一艘澳大利亚破冰船前往澳大利亚。
而101名“雪龙号”船员和22名“绍卡利斯基院士”号船员则表示目前没有危险，两船均有足够配给，正耐心等待营救。
“北极星号”缩短原定访问悉尼的行程前往施救，预计将在七天后抵达联邦湾。

 

中国地方政府债务已经失控

中国地方 政府债务3年增70%

官方审计发现，中国地方政府债务已在不到3年的时间内飙升至近3万亿美元，凸显出中国政府最为艰巨的一项任务：既要试图维持经济增长，又要防 范金融危机。

中国国家审计署(National Audit Office)在外界期待已久的一份报告中表示，截至2013年6月底，地方政府债务增长近70%，达到17.9万亿元人民币（2.95万亿美元）。

审计署的上一次调查在2010年底进行，当时计算出的债务总额是10.7万亿元人民币。该机构补充称，尽管政府债务水平总体“可控”，但“有 的地方也存在一定的风险隐患”。

中国国务院在6月份下令进行此次审计，审计项目包括或有债务和政府负有担保责任的债务。前财政部部长项怀诚曾估计，地方政府债务可能超过20 万亿元人民币。

长期以来，官员和分析人士一直担忧地方政府积累的债务。政府按规定不能向银行直接借 债，但可以成立“特殊目的载体”(SPV)借钱。

此类借债往往有地方土地价值作为担保，它帮助中国实现了惊人的经济增长率。

但由于中央政府强令地方政府借款方遵守财政纪律，外界日益担心经济硬着陆风险。中国的短期融资成本12月早些时候一度接近9%，直到上周末才 有所缓和。

中国总理李克强在上周末的讲话中称，本届政府明年将保障“适度流动性”，实现“信贷合理增长”。

近期国务院向中国人大报告称，预计2013年最终的GDP增幅将为7.6%。去年GDP增幅为7.7%，全球金融危机后的最高值是2010年 的10.4%。

国家审计署本次的地方政府债务估值相当于GDP的30%多一点，而在2010年底该比例为25%。瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛表示：“近年 （地方政府）债务增速过快，不可持续。”

美 银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺表示，中国公共债务总额现在相当于GDP的53.3%，企业债务估计相当于GDP的111%。

“市场和中国政府应当警惕快速上升的杠杆，”陆挺在一份简报中表示，“但我们不认为中国濒临债务危机，尤其是在新领导人能够采取果断措施遏制 杠杆上升的情况下。”

中国审计界资深人士张克4月份曾表示，中国地方政府债务已经“失控”，可能引发大规模金融危机。

一位可做世人表率的美国人

《论语、为政篇》孔子曾这么说：“……见义不为，无勇也。”

我不知首美国文化有没有类似的教育，但我从许多美国电视影片中，常感觉到美国人的义气和公正。

话说1975年4月，北越大军一步步逼近西贡，南越政府早已无力支撑，4月23日美 国宣布越战结束，只协助美国公民及与美国人有关的人离开，最后一班美军直升机将于4月30日上午7时许从美国驻西贡大使馆起飞。那时的撤侨， 可说人心惶惶，兵荒马乱，人人恨不得能插翅高飞。

冒险飞往西贡

其时花旗银行已在西贡沦陷3周前自行将其美籍侨民之撤出，但南越政府不准越南人随意出境。花旗副经理里欧登（John Riordon）抵香港后，对他的越南籍下属今后的安危总是不能释怀，可肯定的是，这些在美国公司工作的越南人的将来日子必定难过，应是凶多吉少。里欧登 于是找他的上司商量，但二人绞尽脑汁也无计可施。他约略估计，其下属加上家人约是一百多人。他终于按耐不住心头的不忍，竟又冒险搭上飞往西贡 的最后一班飞机。回到他在西贡的别墅后，他立刻招集那些下属和家人住入别墅内，共105人。他得到一名中情局干员的指点，知道美国人的外籍家 属也可撤出，他于是大填表格，将所有女人和小孩都填作是了的妻子和孩子，结果也被允许搭上美军撤离运输机。

但 那些壮年、中年的男子怎么办？他又伪造文件将这些男子，有些甚至比他年长，都归类为“养子”，幸好没受到严厉盘查，竟又顺利出关。

抵美后这些员工都归化为美国公民，花旗银行也为他安排工作，后来这些人的子孙不少成了医生、律师等等，过着富足安定的生活。近日这些人在纽约 长岛和里欧登团聚，都叫他“老爹”，真是“子孙满堂”。

困难救人任务

里欧登临危救人，当然考虑过万一走不脱，自己也会身陷绝 境。但他的宅心仁慈，使他具备了仁义特质；他敢敢就跨出危险的一步，是他的勇，可以说他仁、义、勇都做到了，十分完美。

作为一家银行的副经理而想完成那么困难的救人任务，里 欧登恐怕没有那么大的能耐，但他毕竟成功了。救了那么多人，到了38年后才为世人所知，可见他为人的低调。当记者们问他时，他只笑笑说：“我 一直都说是105人，至于孙子女，就算不出来了。”

语云：“为善最乐”，他已达最高境界；更难得的是，他救得都是异族，是同事而已。他和社会上一些以不公正、黑心手段致富致贵、而又“回馈”一 点给社会以赢得善长仁翁美名的大善人相比，他伟大多了，他真可做为世人的表率。

SAUDI AMERICA - US Oil Production Just Hit A 25-Year High


The Great American shale boom rolls on.

U.S. oil production is now at levels last seen in September of 1988, according to new EIA data.

The four-week average climbed to 8,041,000 barrels a day, or about 234,000 barrels a month. That's up from a prior 8,020,000 barrels a day four-week average.

Chart: